Thursday Closing Livestock Market Update - Traders Let Livestock Contracts Drift Lower Into the Long Weekend

GENERAL COMMENTS:

The livestock complex ended the day mixed, with most contracts unwilling to advance in price without stronger fundamental support. At the time of this writing, no cash cattle trade had developed yet. July corn is down 3 1/2 cents per bushel and July soybean meal is down $3.50. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 72.15 points and the NASDAQ is up 496.27 points.

Thursday's export report shared that beef net sales of 10,400 metric tons (mt) for 2026 were down 45% from the previous week and 8% from the prior four-week average. The three largest buyers were Japan (2,900 mt), South Korea (2,400 mt) and Mexico (1,500 mt). Pork net sales of 16,100 mt for 2026 -- a marketing year low -- were down 31% from the previous week and 50% from the prior 4-week average. The three largest buyers were China (4,100 mt), Mexico (4,100 mt) and Canada (2,300 mt).

**The markets are closed on June 19 for the Juneteenth holiday. Regular DTN market commentary will resume on Monday, June 22.**

LIVE CATTLE:

All in all it was a sit and wait kind of day for the live cattle complex as traders waited hopeful for better fundamental support, but with boxed beef prices closing lower, no developments yet in the fed cash cattle market and in waiting to see what was going to come of the Cattle on Feed report, you could safely say that there simply wasn't enough immediate support in the market to keep prices elevated. June live cattle closed $0.92 lower at $254.80, August live cattle closed $2.22 lower at $246.62 and October live cattle closed $1.87 lower at $239.97. At the time of this writing, no cash cattle trade had developed. Bids were offered throughout the day in Nebraska and Kansas, but feedlot managers wanted more money. 

Thursday's slaughter is estimated at 109,000 head -- 4,000 head more than a week ago and 7,000 head less than a year ago.

Boxed beef prices closed lower: choice down $0.58 ($393.92) and select down $2.51 ($374.75) with a movement of 73 loads (48.45 loads of choice, 11.69 loads of select, 5.85 loads of trim and 6.68 loads of ground beef).

MONDAY'S CATTLE CALL: Steady. Until we know how this week's trade pans out, it's challenging to determine what next week's market may set out to accomplish.

FEEDER CATTLE:

The feeder cattle complex also ended the day lower as traders simply weren't willing to take any risks ahead of the day's Cattle on Feed report. And although placements were down 10% compared to a year ago, the fact that the total number of cattle on feed was up 2% compared to a year ago, and that marketings were down 12% compared to a year ago, made the report neutral at best.

August feeder cattle closed $0.82 lower at $366.60, September feeders closed $0.97 lower at $364.67 and October feeders closed $1.10 lower at $361.75. At the Clovis Livestock Auction in Clovis, New Mexico, compared to last week, steer calves weighing 300 to 350 pounds and those weighing 500 to 550 pounds traded higher, but the steer calves weighing 400 to 500 pounds sold lower. Feeder steers traded higher. Heifer calves weighing 350 to 450 pounds and those weighing 500 to 550 pounds sold steady to higher, while the groups of heifers weighing 450 to 500 pounds and those weighing 550 to 600 pounds both traded lower. Slaughter cows sold steady to $5.00 lower and slaughter bulls traded steady. Feeder cattle supply over 600 pounds was 28%. The CME feeder cattle index 6/17/2026: up $3.04, $367.06.

LEAN HOGS:

The lean hog complex ended the day mostly lower (other than in the nearby months, which ended the day slightly higher) as traders continue to be frustrated by the lack of fundamental support and aren't willing to challenge resistance levels until support improves. July lean hogs closed $0.37 higher at $95.02, August lean hogs closed $0.22 higher at $96.72 and October lean hogs closed $0.05 higher at $81.32. Hog prices closed lower on the Daily Direct Afternoon Hog report, down $0.56 with a weighted average price of $97.19 on 2,935 head. Pork cutouts total 278.29 loads with 243.38 loads of pork cuts and 34.91 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: down $1.06, $93.71. Thursday's slaughter is estimated at 483,000 head -- 6,000 head more than a week ago and 18,000 head more than a year ago. The CME lean hog index 6/16/2026: up $0.50, $92.43.

MONDAY'S HOG CALL: Steady. Packers rarely buy aggressively in the cash hog markets on Monday.

Thursday Midday Livestock Market Summary - Caution Dominates Cattle Complex

GENERAL COMMENTS:

The livestock complex is trading mixed ahead of Thursday afternoon's busy schedule. Before the day is over the fed cash cattle market needs to trade cattle and the monthly Cattle on Feed report is set to be released. July corn is down 6 cents per bushel and July soybean meal is down $5.10.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 171.99 points and NASDAQ is up 387.88 points.

Thursday's export report shared that beef net sales of 10,400 metric tons (mt) for 2026 were down 45% from the previous week and 8% from the prior four-week average. The three largest buyers were Japan (2,900 mt), South Korea (2,400 mt) and Mexico (1,500 mt). Pork net sales of 16,100 mt for 2026 -- a marketing year low -- were down 31% from the previous week and 50% from the prior 4-week average. The three largest buyers were China (4,100 mt), Mexico (4,100 mt) and Canada (2,300 mt).

LIVE CATTLE:

In anticipation of Thursday afternoon's Cattle on Feed report -- and upon seeing no trade yet in the fed cash cattle market -- the live cattle contracts are trading lower into the noon hour. Not to mention, midday boxed beef prices are also lower, which doesn't help matters either. June live cattle are down $1.07 at $254.65, August live cattle are down $1.72 at $247.10 and October live cattle are down $1.47 at $240.37. Bids are on the table in parts of Kansas and Nebraska, but no trade has developed yet. Asking prices are noted in Nebraska at $260. But with Thursday being the last trading day of the week because Friday the markets are closed for the Juneteenth holiday, packers need to get more aggressive.

Boxed beef prices are lower: choice down $1.23 ($393.27) and select down $2.28 ($374.98) with a movement of 42 loads (26.26 loads of choice, 7.94 loads of select, 4.70 loads of trim and 3.46 loads of ground beef).

FEEDER CATTLE:

Cautious ahead of Thursday afternoon's Cattle on Feed report, the feeder cattle contracts are also trading lower. August feeder cattle are down $0.32 at $367.10, September feeders are down $0.75 at $364.90 and October feeders are down $0.70 at $362.15. Placements will likely be a wild card in the Cattle on Feed report with pre-report estimates ranging anywhere from 89% to 104% compared to a year ago.

LEAN HOGS:

The lean hog complex is lower as traders aren't willing to advance the contracts any further until fundamental support improves. July lean hogs are up $0.15 at $94.80, August lean hogs are down $0.22 at $96.27 and October lean hogs are down $0.27 at $81.00. The projected CME Lean Hog Index for 6/17/2026 is up $0.01 at $92.44 and the actual index for 6/16/2026 is up $0.49 at $92.43. Hog prices are lower on the Daily Direct Morning Hog Report, down $0.18 with a weighted average price of $97.32, ranging from $94.00 to $98.00 on 795 head and a five-day rolling average of $96.64. Pork cutouts total 192.15 loads with 164.64 loads of pork cuts and 27.51 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: down $1.30, $93.47.

Thursday Morning Livestock Market Update - Mixed Trading Activity Ahead of the Cattle on Feed Report

GENERAL COMMENTS:

Cattle futures are likely to be choppy and remain mixed today as traders react to the large decline in choice boxed beef and look ahead to the Cattle on Feed report. The June live cattle contract nearly reached the contract high set on May 1 and was the only contract that closed positive on Wednesday. Even though the other contract closed slightly lower, cash trade is expected to be higher this week. Packer bids have not yet been posted, but should surface today. The drop in choice boxed beef on Thursday was substantial, with a loss of $5.08. Select boxed beef increased by $0.41. The Cattle on Feed report will be released today after the close and ahead of a three-day weekend. The estimates are for on feed on June 1 at 102.5% with the range of estimates from 101.7% to 103.8%. Placements in May at 94.0% with estimates ranging from 89.0%-104.0%. Cattle marketed in May at 89.2%, with estimates ranging from 88.2% to 91.5%.

Packers' interest this week finally provided some support to hog futures. However, they are expected to have most of their needs covered for the week and may be less aggressive today and Friday. Futures seem to have found support and are moving within a sideways range. One wonders if this support will hold and short-covering will begin to unfold, or if this is the calm before further weakness develops. The magnitude of the decline over the past week suggests the market could be bottoming. The National Daily Direct Afternoon Hog report showed cash up $0.18 on good volume. Pork cutout values declined by $0.80. The weekly hog weights declined significantly to an average of 287.2 pounds.

	BULL SIDE		BEAR SIDE
1)	Cattle placements in May are expected to be 6.0% below a year ago.	1)	Cattle placements could be higher than the trade estimates, with one analyst estimating as much as 4.0% higher. This would pressure the market.
2)	Cash cattle are expected to trade higher this week, as higher futures and higher boxed beef prices will give confidence to feedlots to hold.	2)	The sharp decline on Wednesday in choice boxed beef may indicate that a threshold has been reached.
3)	Hog futures have been trading sideways and possibly building support. Short-covering may kick in to relieve the technically oversold market.	3)	Weekly hog weights remain 0.7 pounds higher than a year ago. That keeps sufficient pork available to the market.
4)	Weekly hog weights averaged 287.2 pounds, down 2.2 pounds from the previous week.	4)	Pork cutouts have not been able to find solid support. This may keep the upside price potential limited.

Wednesday Closing Livestock Market Update - Mixed Tones Follow the Complex

GENERAL COMMENTS:

The livestock complex ended the day mixed, with the live cattle contracts slightly more cautious, while both the lean hog and feeder cattle contracts closed higher. Still no cash cattle trade has developed. July corn is up 7 1/4 cents per bushel and July soybean meal is down $0.00. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 507.12 points and the NASDAQ is down 354.68 points.

LIVE CATTLE:

The live cattle complex eased its bullish tone through Wednesday's trade as traders weren't willing to challenge the market's all-time high scored last April, even though the contracts came extremely close to touching that threshold on Tuesday. But without knowing exactly what Thursday's Cattle on Feed report will amount to and without knowing what's going to come of this week's fed cash cattle market, traders pulled back the reins today, and the contracts closed slightly lower. June live cattle closed $0.42 higher at $255.72, August live cattle closed $0.35 lower at $248.85 and October live cattle closed $0.15 lower at $241.85. Still no trade has developed in the cash market, as feedlot managers desperately want the market to scale higher, but packers obviously sit in the opposite boat. Asking prices are noted at $260 to $262 in Texas. 

Wednesday's slaughter is estimated at 109,000 head -- 4,000 head more than a week ago and 4,000 head less than a year ago.

Boxed beef prices closed mixed: choice down $5.08 ($394.50) and select up $0.41 ($377.26) with a movement of 149 loads (104.60 loads of choice, 10.16 loads of select, 22.05 loads of trim and 11.91 loads of ground beef).

THURSDAY'S CATTLE CALL: Steady to somewhat higher. With the board being mostly supportive this week and boxed beef prices trending higher, one would think that feedlot managers would be able to hold the market at least steady, if not advance it another $1.00 or $2.00.

FEEDER CATTLE:

Although the live cattle contracts closed lower as traders remain cautious market participants, the feeder cattle complex was still able to maintain its higher trend, and its furthest deferred contracts closed with the highest advancement. August feeders closed $0.55 higher at $367.42, September feeders closed $0.37 higher at $365.65 and October feeders closed $0.42 higher at $362.85. At the OKC West Livestock Auction in El Reno, Oklahoma, compared to last week, feeder steers traded $10.00 to $20.00 higher and feeder heifers sold $15.00 to $25.00 higher. Steer calves sold $10.00 to $20.00 stronger and heifer calves traded $5.00 to $15.00 higher. Feeder cattle supply over 600 pounds was 82%. The CME feeder cattle index 6/16/2026: up $0.02, $264.02.

LEAN HOGS:

The lean hog complex closed mostly higher as traders were willing to advance the contracts up to the market's nearby resistance, which happens to be at the upper echelon of its current trading range. The cash market has lent a sizeable amount of support this week as packer demand has been strong and prices have been higher. Unfortunately, pork demand remains a tough subject. July lean hogs closed $0.15 lower at $94.65, August lean hogs closed $1.45 higher at $96.50 and October lean hogs closed $1.35 higher at $81.27. Hog prices closed higher on the Daily Direct Afternoon Hog Report, up $0.18 with a weighted average price of $97.75, ranging from $86.00 to $98.00 on 10,525 head. Pork cutouts totaled 320.95 loads with 287.14 loads of pork cuts and 33.81 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: down $0.80, $94.77. Wednesday's slaughter is estimated at 476,000 head -- 15,000 head more than a week ago and 18,000 head more than a year ago. The CME lean hog index 6/15/2026: down $0.16, $91.93.

THURSDAY'S HOG CALL: Lower. At this point, it's most likely that packers have secured the vast majority of their needs from the market this week.