Tuesday Midday Livestock Market Summary - Light Volume Softens Futures

GENERAL COMMENTS:

Although there are still two trading days before the Thanksgiving holiday break, the market seems to be on a general holiday schedule Tuesday with trade activity and overall market interest remaining very light. This has led to moderate to active price pressure in all livestock futures with cattle and hog futures posting triple-digit losses in several contract months at midday.

Lean hog futures are showing the most pressure, although this is still keeping prices hovering in the recent sideways trend as traders seem uninterested in actively stepping into the complex during the holiday week. The limited overall trade could also allow for further price shifts to develop in a moderate and potentially mixed range through the rest of the week.

December corn is steady at $4.695 and January soybean meal is down $2.70 at $440.6. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 75.58 at 35,075.46.

LIVE CATTLE:

Moderate to firm losses have developed Tuesday morning as trader interest remains extremely limited. It appears that many traders have already checked out ahead of the Thanksgiving holiday, and this is allowing for limited buyer support to develop. Monday's price shifts appear to have satisfied traders' expectations following last week's Cattle on Feed report, with limited overall short- or long-term market direction being focused on until after Thanksgiving.

Traders will continue to monitor outside market shifts as well as fundamental moves in beef values and cash markets, but even these factors are likely to give limited direction over the next few days. Even though firm losses have developed Tuesday, the light activity and limited volume could easily allow for moderate to wide price swings with very little notice or any apparent reason other than the limited activity levels.

Cash cattle markets remain quiet Tuesday morning with bids and asking prices still unavailable. It is still expected that both sides will desire to wrap up needed trade by Wednesday evening before the Thanksgiving holiday, but at this point it very could be Wednesday or later before any significant business is reported.

December live cattle are $0.55 lower at $174.925, February live cattle are $0.88 lower at $175.775, April live cattle are $0.60 lower at $178.125. 

Boxed beef prices are lower: choice down $0.24 ($295.51) and select down $0.15 ($270.80) with a movement of 67.10 loads (45.65 loads of choice, 13.43 loads of select, zero loads of trim and 8.02 loads of ground beef).

FEEDER CATTLE:

Firm pressure is seen in feeder cattle futures midday Tuesday, although prices have pulled away from session lows as early selling pressure has slowed. Trade volume remains very light, and limited pre-holiday activity is likely to keep markets generally undirected and moving within a choppy, but moderate price range over the next few days.

Traders are looking for longer-term market direction from the cattle market, in some ways ignoring the overall holiday noise in the market, even though this is allowing for a moderate price pullback in most contracts Tuesday morning. Limited overall direction and trade is likely not only to be seen Tuesday, but all week as many traders seem to have already been checked out of the market until next week.

The challenge with such light trade is that prices can quickly and easily move wide ranges in either direction due to overall lack of activity and a few traders on one side in the market at a time. This significant disrupts chart accuracy but has little to do with overall trader long term direction. January feeders are $1.20 lower at $228.65, March feeders are $0.93 lower at $231.375 and April feeders are $0.85 lower at $234.975.

LEAN HOGS:

Lean hog futures continue to show the most aggressive pressure Tuesday morning. February through May contracts are holding losses of $2 per cwt lower, and limited overall support is expected in all contracts through the rest of the session. Holiday apathy is one of the main reasons for the limited support as many traders are absent from the market ahead of the Thanksgiving holiday. There is expected to be additional underlying support over the next couple of weeks, if cash values can start to firm and renewed support is consistently developing in pork values.

Even though prices have posted strong losses, the market remains comfortably rooted within a wide sideways trading range, which could limit technical market shifts over the near future. December lean hogs are $1.78 lower at $68.575, February lean hogs are $2.48 lower at $72.575 and April lean hogs are $2.28 lower at $78.70

Hog Prices are lower on the Daily Direct Morning Hog report, down $0.93 with a weighted average of $61.34, ranging from $56.00 to $63.00 on 10,500 head with a five-day rolling average of $62.54. Pork Cutouts totaled 167.36 loads with 150.31 loads of pork cuts and 17.05 loads of trim. Pork cutout values are down $1.19 at $86.57.

Tuesday Morning Livestock Market Update - Markets Search for Solid Direction

GENERAL COMMENTS:

It was a day of volatility throughout the cattle complex with both higher and lower trade developing after the strong opening. Traders faded the report as it had already been factored in to some extent. The key is going to be where we go from here. Boxed beef was higher with choice up $1.88 and select up $0.25, but prices will need to continue to show strength on a consistent basis before the market may be able to trend higher. Cash trade has not developed yet this week with no bids or offers posted. That may be revealed today as it is a holiday week and packers will want to do business before Thursday. However, that may not cause them to be more aggressive as their margins are below a year ago and the 3-year average.

Hog futures closed lower as higher prices could not be maintained leaving the market entrenched in the sideways pattern which may continue through the end of the week. Today's trade will be interesting as packers were aggressive in the countryside looking to purchase hogs early. The National Daily Direct Afternoon Hog report showed a jump of $5.42, the largest we have seen in quite some time. However, cutouts moved in the other direction with a decline of $2.07. Cutouts were higher on the midday report but that fizzled by the end of the day. Strong cash may not be able to provide much support as it was expected packers might be more aggressive early and likely bid lower once they have sufficient volume for the week.

	BULL SIDE		BEAR SIDE
1)	Cattle futures may develop support as the Cattle on Feed report was not bearish and the numbers have been digested. Traders may be willing to step back into the market for the longer term.	1)	The Cattle on Feed report was neutral and did not provide any fodder for traders to change their current attitude. The focus is back on cash and demand which has been lackluster.
2)	Steady cash cattle trade would provide support the market needs to regain some of the severe losses over the past month.	2)	Packers had purchased cattle ahead for this week and next week which may leave them less aggressive this holiday week.
3)	Packers were aggressive in the purchase of hogs on Monday which could carry over today as they want to procure the hogs they need ahead of the holiday.	3)	Hog futures could not hold their strength on Monday leaving traders less likely to get excited about the market today. Cash was sharply higher on Monday but may be short lived.
4)	Hog futures remain in a sideways pattern which should be considered a victory in itself and cash and cutouts continue to fluctuate without any solid direction.	4)	Pork cutouts being lower at the beginning of the week does not bode well for strength. Retail movement over the weekend may not have been very strong.

Monday Closing Livestock Market Update - Cattle Futures End Mostly Higher

GENERAL COMMENTS:

Watching the cattle futures markets Monday appeared to be similar to watching the weather in the Midwest, "If you don't like it, wait a little while and it will change." Live cattle and feeder cattle futures swung from strong early gains to moderate to firm losses, and then back firmly higher in most contract months by closing bell.

So much of the anticipation of last Friday's Cattle on Feed report had already been factored into the market that traders are trying to unwind some of the bearish focus they were expecting. Add to this the fact that markets will remain quiet through most of the week due to markets closed Thursday due to Thanksgiving.

Lean hog futures could not get much positive attention through the day as additional fundamental concerns are eroding price levels, but lean hog futures are still stuck in a sideways trading range.

Hog prices closed higher on the Daily Direct Afternoon hog report, up $5.42 with a weighted average of $67.22 on 8,455 hogs. December corn closed up 2 1/2 at $4.695 and December soybean meal closed up $6.90 at $460.2. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 203.76 at 35,151.04.

LIVE CATTLE:

Live cattle futures closed mixed in light to moderate trade with initial buy orders flooding into the complex following the better-than-expected news from cattle placement numbers in Friday's cattle on feed report. But buy orders quickly ran dry, allowing room for waiting sell orders, erasing initial gains. Once all of the weekend order planning cleared the market, traders got back to work, with a mixed close the result of the up and down price shifts during the day.

Nearby contracts sustained narrow losses, while moderate to firm gains developed in deferred contracts based on positive news from feeder cattle placements on Friday's report. It appears that this Cattle on Feed report has essentially been worked through the market, unlike October's report, which kept markets volatile for nearly three weeks. This is likely to help traders focus more on beef market fundamentals, allowing potential support for any additional holiday demand.

Cash cattle trade is undeveloped Monday with asking prices and bids unavailable. Showlists being distributed Monday appear to be generally mixed. Trade is expected to be accomplished earlier this week than usual due to Thanksgiving on Thursday, but it still may be midweek before active cash trade is seen in most areas. The five-area weekly average price last week moved to $177.82 per cwt. This is $2.09 per cwt lower than the previous week.

December live cattle closed $0.28 lower at $175.475, February live cattle closed $0.15 lower at $176.65 and April live cattle closed $0.30 higher at $178.725. 

Monday's slaughter is estimated at 125,000 head, steady with a week ago and unchanged from a year ago. 

Boxed beef prices closed higher: choice up $1.88 ($295.75) and select up $0.25 ($270.95) with a movement of 134.64 loads (77.35 loads of choice, 27.23 loads of select, 5.44 loads of trim and 24.62 loads of ground beef).

TUESDAY'S CATTLE CALL: Steady. Tuesday activity is expected to remain generally sluggish, although a few asking prices and even a token bids may develop as both sides are hoping to find common ground and get cattle on the books by Wednesday evening.

FEEDER CATTLE:

Following back and forth trade at different times in the Monday session, feeder cattle futures posted firm, triple-digit gains, helping to draw more attention on longer-term market direction and less based on current supply levels. Initial strong post report gains flooded into the market, but quickly eroded into moderate to firm losses. Once traders seemed to get past trying to shift and adjust positions from previous market volatility, the ability for steady and strong buyer interest was able to make significant price shifts in all contracts.

Limited trade is expected through most of the week in both futures trade as well as many cash feeder cattle sales around the country due to the Thanksgiving holiday.

January feeders closed $1.35 higher at $229.85, March feeders closed $1.33 higher at $232.3 and April feeders closed $1.33 higher at $235.825. The CME Feeder Cattle Index for Nov. 16: down $2.72, $225.92.

LEAN HOGS:

Lean hog futures continued to show limited interest Monday, although prices continued to push lower as follow-through pressure slowly but steadily developed based on softer overall market fundamentals. Going into the holiday week is going to make it even harder to get a good handle of any fundamental strength developing in the market due to generally light and sporadic trade in many areas.

Nearby futures continue to take the brunt of developing market pressure, but even with the current losses, limited technical direction is seen due to prices hovering within the moderate sideways trading range seen over the last month. This sideways pattern is still not in any danger of being breached, but the recent selling pressure has kept the market moderately oversold, allowing for a possible holiday market bounce.

December lean hogs closed $0.63 lower at $70.35, February lean hogs closed $0.40 lower at $75.05 and April lean hogs closed $0.48 lower at $80.975. Monday's hog slaughter is estimated at 486,000 head, 16,000 head more than a week ago and 2,000 head less than a year ago. Pork Cutouts totaled 311.15 loads with 263.99 loads of pork cuts and 47.16 loads of trim. Pork cutout values are down $2.07 at $86.09. The CME Lean Hog Index for Nov. 16: down $0.59, $75.09.

TUESDAY'S HOG CALL: Steady to $1 higher. Cash markets are expected to remain unsettled through the entire week, packers continue to push processing limits early in the week due to the upcoming holiday schedules. The early week cash market support may help to draw needed momentum Tuesday morning.

Monday Midday Livestock Market Update - Early Gains Soften With Limited Trade Activity

GENERAL COMMENTS:

Initial buyer support seemed to quickly and actively build through the weekend following lower-than-estimated cattle placements on Friday's Cattle on Feed report. This essentially took most of the negative sting out of the highly anticipated report and sparked a slew of buy orders once markets opened Monday morning. Feeder cattle futures were the most aggressive in early morning trade with gains reaching over $2 per cwt in several contract months. But the overall lack of active trade due to the Thanksgiving holiday week and limited follow-through buying quickly allowed for prices to retract early gains. Live cattle and feeder cattle futures are holding moderate to firm losses, although overall activity levels and market movement are likely to remain subdued through most of the session. Lean hog futures are trading lower in a narrow range with very limited direction in the complex. The underlying softness in cash hog and pork values continue to limit buyer support. But hog markets seem to remain extremely comfortable within the current sideways trend. December corn is down 1 1/2 at $4.655 and December soybean meal is down $1.30 at $452.00. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 102.47 at 35,049.75.

LIVE CATTLE:

Live cattle futures have seen a flurry of back-and-forth market shifts Monday morning as initial buyer orders met opening bell with an optimistic focus following buyers stepping back into the market after last Friday's Cattle on Feed report. With overall on-feed cattle numbers at 11.9 million head, essentially on target with pre-report estimates, traders started to back away from the protection put into the market last week before the report was released. But these early gains were not able to hold, as futures quickly moved steadily lower, and spent a portion of the morning trading with firm losses. But these losses are starting to now fade as sell orders are thinning out, allowing prices to remain mixed in sluggish activity at midday. This holiday-shortened trading week will likely see mixed market direction through the entire week with many traders likely content with positions until early next week. Cash cattle markets are quiet Monday morning with asking prices and bids unlikely to be seen until either later in the day or later in the week. Given the holiday schedule at the end of the week, packers are expected to want cash trade wrapped up on Wednesday, but overall movement during the week will also be uncertain, especially until more accurate cattle sale numbers from last week are reported later Monday. December live cattle are $0.43 lower at $175.325, February live cattle are $0.55 lower at $176.25, April live cattle are $0.13 lower at $178.30. 

Boxed beef prices are higher: choice up $2.28 ($296.15) and select up $1.71 ($272.41) with a movement of 69.25 loads (51.51 loads of choice, 10.31 loads of select, zero loads of trim and 7.43 loads of ground beef).

FEEDER CATTLE:

Moderate to wide price swings developed in feeder cattle futures Monday morning. First, the upcoming holiday week is expected to limit overall trade volume through the next several days, meaning less overall market interest and potential room for markets to show more significant price swings due to lack of activity. But post-report buying flooded the complex, posting strong, triple-digit gains across the complex with several contracts reaching gains of $2 per cwt. This buyer support was partially based on cattle placements in October lower than expected, which traders had already factored into price levels last week. But with only limited buy orders needed to be filled, prices quickly eroded during morning trade, holding moderate to firm losses. These active sell orders were relatively thin also, leading the way for prices to trudge higher at midday. The rest of the week could see similar trade as Monday morning's moves based on the limited overall volume as prices could wander back and forth through much of the holiday week. January feeders are $0.03 lower at $228.475, March feeders are $0.13 higher at $231.1 and April feeders are $0.23 higher at $234.725.

LEAN HOGS:

Follow-through pressure is seen in lean hog futures trade Monday morning. The underlying concern of recent erosion in cash hog values as well as the inability to consistently and steadily move pork cutout values higher ahead of the Thanksgiving holiday is keeping buyers on the sidelines in most futures contracts. Nearby futures still remain well contained within a sideways trading pattern, which is not expected to be in danger at this point, but the inability to develop a strong sense of fundamental support over the next couple of weeks could quickly limit overall lean hog values and buyer support through the end of 2023. December lean hogs are $0.53 lower at $70.45, February lean hogs are $0.35 lower at $75.1 and April lean hogs are $0.43 lower at $81.025.

Hog prices are unreported due to confidentiality on the Daily Direct Morning Hog report. Pork cutouts totaled 176.18 loads with 155.53 loads of pork cuts and 20.65 loads of trim. Pork cutout values are up $2.79 at $87.76.