Tuesday Closing Livestock Market Update - Traders Hang Back Waiting for Cash Cattle to Trade

GENERAL COMMENTS:

It was another lackluster day throughout the livestock complex as traders paid the market little attention. Still, no cash cattle trade has developed and trade will likely be delayed until Thursday. Hog prices closed higher on the Daily Direct Afternoon Hog Report, up $1.12 with a weighted average price of $80.78 on 9,406 head. May corn is up 3 1/2 cents per bushel and May soybean meal is up $2. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 320.33 points.

LIVE CATTLE:

Watching Tuesday's market develop in the live cattle complex was about as exciting as watching paint dry on a wall. Simply put, the bullish train in the market is currently the cash complex, and until traders see what this week's cash market does, there won't likely be much to report regarding the futures complex.

It's anticipated that cash prices will trade $1 higher this week as tremendous consumer demand is continuing to fuel boxed beef prices. April live cattle closed $0.52 lower at $188.05, June live cattle closed $0.40 lower at $185 and August live cattle closed $0.32 lower at $184.02. Still, no cash cattle trade developed and trade will likely be delayed until Thursday. Asking prices in the South are noted at $188-plus but remain unestablished in the North. 

Tuesday's slaughter is estimated at 122,000 head -- steady with a week ago and 4,000 head less than a year ago.

Boxed beef prices closed mixed: Choice down $0.11 ($313.22) and select up $0.13 ($303.18) with a movement of 138 loads (100.92 loads of choice, 14.14 loads of select, 8.05 loads of trim and 14.80 loads of ground beef).

WEDNESAY'S CATTLE CALL: $1 Higher. It's unlikely that trade will develop on Wednesday, but when it does, higher prices are likely.

FEEDER CATTLE:

Despite the feeder cattle complex continuing to tremendous demand in sales in the countryside, the futures complex traded half-heartedly as the market seems to wait to see what the cash cattle complex does this week. And with live cattle contracts closing in a lackluster manner, feeders didn't dare to do anything different. April feeders closed $0.02 lower at $255.07, May feeders closed $0.20 lower at $258.92 and August feeders closed $0.10 higher at $269.82.

At Oklahoma National Stockyards in Oklahoma City, compared to last week, feeder steers traded $2 to $6 higher, but steers over 900 pounds sold steady. Feeder heifers traded steady to $5 higher. Stocker cattle and calves sold $5 to $15 higher, with those suitable for grass selling up to $30 higher. Demand was noted to be strong for feeder cattle, but extremely strong for stockers and calves. Feeder cattle supply over 600 pounds was 72%. The CME feeder cattle index March 18: Up $0.16, $251.02.

LEAN HOGS:

Even with pork cutout values and cash prices closing higher, the lean hog contracts simply didn't possess enough gusto to end the day higher. The market's nearby contracts all closed lower, although some of the deferred months were able to close mildly higher. At this point, the market's resistance is simply too strong for traders to take out the existing top.

April lean hogs closed $1 lower at $85.82, June lean hogs closed $1.77 lower at $101.25 and July lean hogs closed $1.35 lower at $103.95. It was rather impressive to see over 9,000 head traded in Tuesday's cash market.

Pork cutouts totaled 269.36 loads with 247.27 loads of pork cuts and 22.09 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: up $0.21, $93.37. Tuesday's slaughter is estimated at 491,000 head -- 7,000 head more than a week ago and 4,000 head more than a year ago. The CME lean hog index March 15: Up $0.20, $82.54.

WEDNEDSAY'S HOG CALL: Steady. Following Tuesday's impressive trade, packers may keep the market steady as it's likely they still need hogs but not to the degree at which prices will trade higher again.

Tuesday Midday Livestock Market Summary - Traders Look for Fundamental Support to Give Direction

GENERAL COMMENTS:

Cautious tones have taken over nearby livestock contracts as all three markets are trading lower while some of their deferred months continue to trade higher. Asking prices in the South are noted at $188-plus but remain unestablished in the North. May corn is up 2 3/4 cents per bushel and May soybean meal is up $0.80. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 241.11 points.

LIVE CATTLE:

As the market patiently waits to see what comes of the excitement expected later this week when the cash cattle market trades and the Cattle on Feed (COF) report is shared, the live cattle market is trading mixed in the meantime. The market's nearby contracts are trading slightly lower as traders know that trade will be delayed until late in the week. Friday's COF report could be perceived as bearish with placements higher than a year ago, even though it shouldn't be viewed as such given that January placements were delayed by winter storm challenges.

Early asking prices are already noted in the South at $188-plus but asking prices in the North remain elusive. April live cattle are down $0.35 at $188.27, June live cattle are down $0.32 at $185.07 and August live cattle are down $0.10 at $184.25.

Boxed beef prices are mixed: Choice up $1.56 ($314.89) and select down $0.06 ($302.99) with a movement of 75 loads (51.51 loads of choice, 9.57 loads of select, 4.26 loads of trim and 9.53 loads of ground beef).

FEEDER CATTLE:

As of late, the feeder cattle complex has elected to follow the live cattle market's move in almost an identical manner. If the live cattle contracts trade higher, so do the feeder cattle contracts. If live cattle contracts trade lower, it's most likely feeder cattle contracts will, too.

Traders are likely paying closer attention to the live cattle/cash cattle markets than normal as the cash cattle market could break the market's all-time high cash cattle prices set just last June. April feeder cattle are steady at $255.10, May feeders are down $0.20 at $258.92 and August feeders are up $0.22 at $269.95.

LEAN HOGS:

The lean hog complex seems to have lost some of its gusto as nearby contracts are trading $1 to $2 lower. It's not from a lack of fundamental support as morning cash prices and pork cutout values are both higher. Instead, the market's long-term resistance seems to be too much of an obstacle for traders to tackle at this point. April lean hogs are down $1.12 at $85.72, June lean hogs are down $2.45 at $100.57 and July lean hogs are down $1.90 at $103.40.

The projected lean hog index for March 18 is up $0.28 at $82.82, and the actual index for March 15 is up $0.20 at $82.54. Hog prices are higher on the Daily Direct Morning Hog Report, up $0.94 with a weighted average price of $79.86, ranging from $75 to $83 on 1,946 head and a five-day rolling average of $79.65. Pork cutouts total 146.95 loads with 137.79 loads of pork cuts and 9.16 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: Up $0.73, $93.89.

Tuesday Morning Livestock Market Update - Follow-Through Strength Likely

GENERAL COMMENTS:

Rather than beginning the week with caution, cattle traders are optimistic about beef prices as the calendar moves into the first day of spring. With the continued strength of boxed beef, traders anticipate higher cash again this week. The exuberance may temper as the end of the week draws near and the Cattle on Feed report comes into focus. The report may not have much impact on the overall market as cattle numbers remain tight, but it will influence trade for a brief time. The estimates are for on-feed numbers on March 1 at 100.8% of last year. Placements are at 106.3% with again a wide range of estimates from 102.7% to 108.8%. Marketed in February is estimated at 103.9% compared to a year ago. Boxed beef provided support on Monday with choice up $1.43 and select up $0.65. Feeder cattle showed the greatest gain of over $3.00 in the May contract.

Hog futures closed higher except for April. June and later contracts continued to make new contract highs. The National Daily Direct Afternoon Hog report showed cash down $0.28, bringing the weighted average price to $79.66. It is likely packers may be more aggressive Tuesday as has been the pattern and they will want to purchase hogs to maintain the strong slaughter pace. Cutouts were down $0.31, which may keep trading activity subdued but futures supported due to the limited decline of both cash and cutouts.

	BULL SIDE		BEAR SIDE
1)	The victory of feedlots receiving higher prices for their cattle last week will have them set their sights higher this week due to the continued strength of boxed beef and good demand.	1)	Cattle futures may trade sideways into the Cattle on Feed report Friday. The April contract already has higher cash factored in.
2)	Live cattle futures are near the previous highs and a break above resistance could trigger further buying interest and higher prices.	2)	Even with the gain Monday, feeder cattle futures remain in a downtrend that has developed over the past three weeks.
3)	Hog futures continue to make new contract highs, keeping the uptrend alive and traders adding to their long positions.	3)	Hog futures remain overbought and could correct if fundamentals turn negative.
4)	Packers are expected to be more aggressive Tuesday as they need to purchase hogs to keep the increased slaughter pace satisfied.	4)	Both cash and cutouts decreasing Monday may result in negative trade Tuesday. Traders may be cautious over further weakness.

Monday Closing Livestock Market Update - Traders Start Week Off Strong

GENERAL COMMENTS:

It was an impressive start to the week as most of the livestock contracts closed higher, and once again boxed beef prices closed higher, too. No cash cattle trade developed throughout the day and trade will likely be delayed until Thursday, if not even potentially Friday. Hog prices closed lower on the Daily Direct Afternoon Hog Report, down $0.28 with a weighted average price of $79.66 on 3,425 head. May corn is down 3/4 cent per bushel and May soybean meal is down $2.80. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 75.66 points.

LIVE CATTLE:

The live cattle complex charged into the new week nd hit the ground running. With boxed beef prices continuing to see support, feedlots are hoping they'll get cash cattle traded higher again this week. The market is eager to take out the highs established in 2023 but hasn't quite been able to do so yet in the cash complex. The cash cattle market won't likely trade until late this week, but feedlots will price cattle higher again this week. April live cattle closed $1.32 higher at $188.57, June live cattle closed $1.80 higher at $185.40 and August live cattle closed $1.72 higher at $184.35. New showlists appear to be mixed, higher in Texas, but lower in Kansas, and Nebraska/Colorado. 

Monday's slaughter is estimated at 120,000 head -- 9,000 head more than a week ago and 4,000 head less than a year ago.

Last week, northern dressed cattle traded for $294 to $301, but mostly at $298, $4 higher than the previous week's weighted average. Southern live cattle traded from $181 to mostly $186, which is steady with the previous week's weighted average. Last week's negotiated cash cattle trade totaled 82,876 head. Of that, 80% (66,655 head) were committed to the nearby delivery and the remaining 20% (16,221 head) were committed to the deferred delivery.

Boxed beef prices closed higher: choice up $1.43 ($313.33) and select up $0.65 ($303.05) with a movement of 114 loads (49.92 loads of choice, 18.95 loads of select, 8.62 loads of trim and 36.14 loads of ground beef).

TUESDAY'S CATTLE CALL: Higher. With consumers feeling spring creeping into the air, beef demand has continued to impress the market and may be strong enough to keep packers engaged in the cash sector despite that meaning that cash prices may trend higher, too.

FEEDER CATTLE:

The feeder cattle complex closed substantially higher as the market capitalized on support from the live cattle complex. With the live cattle contracts closing higher again this afternoon and cash cattle expected to be priced even higher again this week, it was an easy decision for the feeder cattle market to trade higher while fundamental demand continues to encourage the market to do so.

April feeders closed $2.97 higher at $255.10, May feeders closed $3.12 higher at $259.12 and August feeders closed $2.35 higher at $269.72. At Joplin Regional Stockyards in Carthage, Missouri, compared to last week and at its midsession point, feeder steers are trading steady to $8 higher while feeder heifers trade anywhere from $4 lower to $5 higher. Feeder cattle supply over 600 pounds was 54%. The CME feeder cattle index March 15: Up $1.86, $250.86.

LEAN HOGS:

The lean hog complex closed higher in the futures market, but the market's fundamentals weren't overly supportive as cash prices and pork cutout values both closed lower. If the futures complex continues to trend higher, the resistance at $88 will become a hurdle that challenges traders. Unless consumer demand keeps pork cutout values higher throughout the week and Thursday's export report is strong again, I'm not certain the market will be able to take out that long-term resistance.

April lean hogs closed $0.10 lower at $86.82, June lean hogs closed $0.55 higher at $103.02 and July lean hogs closed $0.80 higher at $105.30. Pork cutouts total 256.87 loads with 232.60 loads of pork cuts and 24.27 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: down $0.31, $93.16. Monday's slaughter is estimated at 486,000 head -- 31,000 head more than a week ago and 26,000 more than a year ago. The CME lean hog index March 14: Up $0.15, $82.34.

TUESDAY'S HOG CALL: Lower. With pork cutout values lower Monday afternoon, I don't expect packers to be overly aggressive in Tuesday's cash market.