Friday Midday Livestock Market Summary - Traders Pull Back Ahead of the Week's Cattle on Feed Report

GENERAL COMMENTS:

The livestock complex is trading mixed into Friday's noon hour as the cattle sector is trading mildly lower ahead of seeing the afternoon's Cattle on Feed report, but the hog complex is trading higher amid better consumer demand. A little bit of cash cattle trade has developed -- with prices trading $1.00 lower in the North but remaining steady in the South, but more trade will need to develop ahead of the week's end. May corn is up 6 cents per bushel and July soybean meal is up $5.90. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 69.71 points.

LIVE CATTLE:

Although traders would like to make a move in the live cattle market, the market's support won't likely come to fruition ahead of the week's end. With Northern cash cattle beginning to trade at $292 which is $1.00 lower than last week's weighted average, and the monthly Cattle on Feed report set to be released later this afternoon, it's most likely that traders keep with their cautious, lower trend though the afternoon and through the day's close. June live cattle are down $0.32 at $175.05, August live cattle are down $0.50 at $173.02 and October live cattle are down $0.42 at $176.30. A handful of cattle have sold in the South for $182 which is steady with last week's weighted average, but total trade volumes remain incredibly light in both regions. Southern asking prices remain firm at $184 to $185, and at $295 plus for Northern dressed cattle.

Boxed beef prices are higher: choice up $0.13 ($295.93) and select up $1.80 ($291.07) with a movement of 90 loads (55.46 loads of choice, 11.25 loads of select, 13.92 loads of trim and 8.92 loads of ground beef).

FEEDER CATTLE:

Given that the live cattle contracts are trading lower, that cash cattle trade is being reported at steady to $1.00 lower and that the nearby corn contracts are trading $0.05 to $0.06 higher -- it's not surprising to see the feeder cattle contracts trading lower into Friday's noon hour. May feeders are down $1.05 at $241.50, August feeders are down $1.35 at $252.95 and September feeders are down $1.42 at $253.87. Not to mention, with the monthly Cattle on Feed report set to be unveiled later this afternoon, traders normally pull back ahead of that report's monthly showcasing. Placements are expected to be lower (following last month's 110% showing), but total on feed numbers are anticipated to be greater than a year ago with weaker marketings.

LEAN HOGS:

The lean hog complex has shaken the blues which its market possessed through Thursday's trade and is trading notably higher into Friday's noon hour. It comes as no surprise to see that cash prices are lower given that packers fulfilled their needs earlier in the week, but it is supportive to note that midday pork cutout values are higher and that the carcass prices are being supported by subtle gains across nearly all the cuts -- not by one wild price swing in one cut. Like we commonly see in the belly's volatility. June lean hogs are up $1.90 at $104.60, July lean hogs are up $1.90 at $106.25 and August lean hogs are up $1.97 at $103.75.

The projected lean hog index for April 18 is down $0.11 at $91.35, and the actual index for April 17 is up $0.10 at $91.46. Hog prices are lower on the Daily Direct Morning Hog Report, down $1.80 with a weighted average price of $88.69, ranging from $83.00 to $92.00 on 723 head and a five-day rolling average of $88.87. Pork cutouts total 146.32 loads with 133.51 loads of pork cuts and 12.81 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: up $1.06, $101.02.

Friday Morning Livestock Market Update - Choppy Trade Ahead of Cattle on Feed Report

GENERAL COMMENTS:

Packers and feedlots are holding out with each one hoping the other will blink first. The expectations are for cash to trade lower as the packers seem to be in a better position and may not need to be aggressive. With the Cattle on Feed report looming today, it is unlikely futures will see much movement one way or the other. The report tends to show surprises that impact the market. The trade estimates are for On-feed numbers on April 1^st at 102% of a year ago. Placements in March are expected at 92.1% with marketings at 88.2% of a year ago. The trade estimates for placements have a much narrower range of expectations than the past few reports with a range of 89.3% to 94.7%. Boxed beef prices showed further weakness with choice down $1.10 and select down $1.61.

Hog futures struggled on Thursday with June retesting technical support from Monday. Thankfully, prices bounced to end the day with only moderate losses. Weekly export sales were not as good as hoped and were a marketing year low at 21,800 MT. However, domestic demand continues to do well with packers remaining aggressive on Thursday with the National Daily Direct Afternoon Hog report showing a $0.65 with the weighted average at $89.78. Along with that, cutouts gained $0.41. The packers are likely done for the week and should have sufficient purchases to maintain the elevated slaughter pace. Saturday slaughter is estimated at 62,000 head.

	BULL SIDE		BEAR SIDE
1)	If placements on the Cattle on Feed report are below the average trade estimate, futures may push higher next week.	1)	The Cattle on Feed report has been notorious for being bearish in at least one category which may result in some liquidation ahead of the report.
2)	Both packers and feedlots have dug in their heels which could result in steady cash. If cash were to trade steady with last week, futures would see further gains.	2)	Boxed beef prices continue to show weakness possibly indicating consumer demand is declining due to high food prices.
3)	Weekly pork export sales were a marketing year low, but packers maintain a strong slaughter pace with higher cash which indicates overall demand remains strong.	3)	Packers are likely finished buying hog for the week resulting in lower cash. This may keep upside futures potential limited.
4)	Hog futures rebounded from support on Thursday and could see further gains today as technical traders may have more confidence to buy into the market.	4)	Higher pork prices may have reached a consumer threshold. This may limit further strength with summer contracts already having higher prices factored in.

Thursday Closing Livestock Market Update - Hog Price Down, Cattle See Support

GENERAL COMMENTS:

The livestock complex closed mixed as traders were willing to advance the cattle contracts but not the hog complex following Thursday's disappointing export sales report. Still, no cash cattle trade developed. Hog prices closed higher on the Daily Direct Morning Hog Report, up $0.65 with a weighted average price of $89.78 on 3,462 head. May corn is down 3 1/2 cents per bushel and May soybean meal is down $0.70. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 22.07 points.

Thursday's export report showed beef net sales of 17,700 metric tons (mt) for 2024 were up 30% from the previous week and 27% from the prior four-week average. The three primary buyers were South Korea (5,400 mt), China (3,600 mt) and Japan (2,800 mt). Pork net sales of 21,800 mt for 2024 -- a marketing year low -- were down 54% from the previous week and 47% from the prior four-week average. The three primary buyers were Mexico (8,500 mt) China (3,000 mt) and Japan (2,900 mt).

LIVE CATTLE:

The live cattle complex had aspirations to trade substantially higher throughout Thursday's trade, but unfortunately, the market lacked enough support. to do so. What was interesting to note was the spot June contract's behavior. The market traded higher and lower throughout the day but closed mostly steady as traders weren't willing to go up against the market's resistance at $175.50, which is close to where the market's 100-day moving average is trading. This will remain key to watch as a close above the moving average will signal bullishness. Unfortunately, throughout Thursday's trade, the market didn't possess enough gusto to accomplish that feat with boxed beef prices trending lower and processing speeds lagging.

June live cattle closed $0.05 higher at $175.37, August live cattle closed $0.75 higher at $173.52 and October live cattle closed $1 higher at $176.72. No cash cattle trade developed throughout the day, although bids were offered in the South at $180 and the North at $290 to $291. Given that packers' bids were far below asking prices ($184 to $185 in the South and $295-plus in the North), feedlots weren't keen on trading cattle too early.

The month's Cattle on Feed report will be released tomorrow afternoon -- total on-feed numbers are expected to be higher with placements and marketings lower. Thursday's slaughter is estimated at 118,000 head -- 6,000 head less than a week ago and 10,000 head less than a year ago.

Boxed beef prices closed lower: choice down $1.01 ($295.80) and select down $1.61 ($289.27) with a movement of 143 loads (108.40 loads of choice, 14.69 loads of select, zero loads of trim and 19.56 loads of ground beef).

FRIDAY'S CATTLE CALL: Steady to somewhat lower. Even though the futures complex wants to trade higher, it's still unlikely that feedlots can get cattle moved higher this week as packers have slowly built supply up around them.

FEEDER CATTLE:

There's an old market saying, "feeders are leaders," and there was a change of roles between live and feeder cattle contracts on Thursday's afternoon. Earlier this week, the feeder cattle complex traded in the live cattle market's shadow -- unwilling to do anything without the go-ahead or support of the live cattle contracts. But during the afternoon, the live cattle market's support grew thinner while support for the feeder cattle market became bolder.

I believe the feeder cattle market's strength stems from the recent moisture across parts of cow-calf country. We can't overlook the continued strong support of feeder cattle sales in the countryside.

May feeders closed $2.27 higher at $242.55, August feeders closed $2.17 higher at $254.30 and September feeders closed $1.92 higher at $255.30. At Torrington Livestock Auction in Torrington, Wyoming, compared to last week, feeder steers and heifers traded $3 to $8 higher. The sale noted that internet bidding on grass-type cattle was especially strong. The start of green grass and good moisture in the area is keeping the market strong. The feeder cattle supply over 600 pounds was 53%. The CME feeder cattle index April 17: up $0.27, $242.63.

LEAN HOGS:

The lean hog complex couldn't shake the disappointing tone the market quickly adopted after seeing today's export report. The market closed with that same doggish tone. June lean hogs closed $0.02 lower at $102.70, July lean hogs closed $0.05 higher at $104.35 and August lean hogs closed $0.30 lower at $101.77. The afternoon carcass price was able to round out the day higher, but that's mostly because of the $19.78 jump in the belly. Pork cutouts totaled 303.71 loads with 285.96 loads of pork cuts and 17.75 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: up $0.41, $99.96. Thursday's slaughter is estimated at 486,000 head -- 2,000 head more than a week ago and 7,000 head more than a year ago. The CME lean hog index April 16: up $0.38, $91.36.

FRIDAY'S HOG CALL: Lower. Given that packers bought somewhat aggressively in today's market, it's likely they pay little to no attention to the cash market come Friday.

Thursday Midday Livestock Market Summary - Hogs Dip Lower After Disappointment in Export Report

GENERAL COMMENTS:

It's been quite a day for the livestock complex as the morning's export report didn't lend the market much support and still no cash cattle trade has developed. At this point, it's looking like the week's cash trade will be delayed until Friday. May corn is down 1 3/4 cents per bushel and May soybean meal is steady. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 170 points.

Thursday's export report showed beef net sales of 17,700 metric tons (mt) for 2024 were up 30% from the previous week and 27% from the prior four-week average. The three primary buyers were South Korea (5,400 mt), China (3,600 mt) and Japan (2,800 mt). Pork net sales of 21,800 mt for 2024 -- a marketing year low -- were down 54% from the previous week and 47% from the prior four-week average. The three primary buyers were Mexico (8,500 mt) China (3,000 mt) and Japan (2,900 mt).

LIVE CATTLE:

The live cattle complex is back to trading higher but the market has yet to see traders willing to advance the market beyond current resistance levels. If traders decide to trade above resistance ($175.50 in the spot June contract), it would solely be from technical strength as boxed beef prices haven't been supportive this week and the week's cash cattle trade is expected to be lower. June live cattle are down $0.27 at $175.07, August live cattle are up $0.40 at $173.17 and October live cattle are up $0.70 at $176.42. No cash cattle trade has developed yet. Asking prices are noted in the South at $184 to $185 and in the North at $295. Given that bids are still elusive, trade will likely be delayed until Friday.

Boxed beef prices are lower: choice down $0.71 ($296.10) and select down $1.50 ($289.38) with a movement of 70 loads (48.89 loads of choice, 7.62 loads of select, zero loads of trim and 13.49 loads of ground beef).

FEEDER CATTLE:

The feeder cattle complex sprung back into action as traders were encouraged to see the live cattle contracts trading higher which lends enough support for feeders to shoot higher, too. May feeders are up $1.67 at $241.95, August feeders are up $1.67 at $253.80 and September feeders are up $1.50 at $254.87. Corn prices are trading mildly lower, which isn't pressuring the market from a feed-expense perspective either.

LEAN HOGS:

The lean hog complex is trading lower as the market is disappointed in the morning's export report. With today's report showing a marketing-year low at only 21,800 mt, traders are disappointed in international demand, although midday pork cutout prices are up $2.44 which is positive. Even so, the complex is still trading lower as the market's enthusiasm seemed to disappear. June lean hogs are down $1.22 at $101.50, July lean hogs are down $1.20 at $103.10 and August lean hogs are down $1.05 at $101.02.

The projected lean hog index for April 17 is up $0.10 at $91.46, and the actual index for April 16 is up $0.38 at $91.36. Hog prices are higher on the Daily Direct Morning Hog Report, up $2.04 with a weighted average price of $90.49, ranging from $83 to $92 on 2,277 head and a five-day rolling average of $88.41. Pork cutouts total 158.43 loads with 149.70 loads of pork cuts and 8.74 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: up $2.44, $101.99.