Wednesday Closing Livestock Market Update - Mixed Trader Support

GENERAL COMMENTS:

It was another mixed day for the livestock complex as the lean hog and feeder cattle contracts closed lower, but the live cattle complex found mild support. No cash cattle trade has developed yet, but packer interest should improve on Thursday. March corn is down 4 1/2 cents per bushel and March soybean meal is up $0.90. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 71.25 points.

LIVE CATTLE:

The live cattle complex was able to round out the day higher following Tuesday's lower end. But today's close isn't enough of a change in direction to make anyone think that the market's downturn has seized -- it will take more than a mere steady close to help market participants believe that a near-term bottom has been formed. April live cattle closed $0.75 higher at $194.77, June live cattle closed $0.52 higher at $190.92 and August live cattle closed $0.35 higher at $189.17. No cash cattle trade developed throughout the day, but asking prices continue to be noted in the South at $202 to $204 -- but are still not established in the North.

Wednesday's slaughter is estimated at 117,000 head -- 3,000 head less than a week ago and 2,000 head less than a year ago.

Boxed beef prices closed mixed: choice down $1.88 ($313.89) and select up $0.05 ($303.76) with a movement of 121 loads (78.86 loads of choice, 14.45 loads of select, 8.27 loads of trim and 19.37 loads of ground beef).

THURSDAY'S CATTLE CALL: Lower. Given that last week packers were able to buy cattle cheaper and procure supply, it's likely that they'll be able to do so again this week.

FEEDER CATTLE:

Following Tuesday's sharp ascent, it was disappointing to see the feeder cattle contracts trade lower, especially given the fact that the live cattle contracts traded higher throughout the day and lent some mild support. Thankfully, the spot March contract didn't fall severely enough to again close below its 40-day moving average, but that will be a threshold the market continues to monitor closely. March feeders closed $0.70 lower at $269.02, April feeders closed $0.50 lower at $268.60 and May feeders closed $0.27 lower at $267.05. The CME feeder cattle index 2/18/2025: up $0.52, $278.51.

LEAN HOGS:

It was a grim, painstaking day for the lean hog complex as domestic demand has seemed to fall out of bed for the pork sector. With pork cutout values crashing more than $3.00 lower day after day, traders have taken note of the change in demand. But what's especially frustrating is that it's the sharp decline in the belly that's pulling the carcass price lower, as it alone closed $16.75 lower today. April lean hogs closed $3.45 lower at $89.75, June lean hogs closed $3.57 lower at $101.67 and July lean hogs closed $3.10 lower at $102.60. Hog prices closed higher on the Daily Direct Afternoon Hog Report, up $0.19 with a weighted average price of $91.98 on 7,283 head. Pork cutouts totaled 245.80 loads, with 218.62 loads of pork cuts and 27.18 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: down $3.95, $95.52. Wednesday's slaughter is estimated at 489,000 head -- 1,000 head less than a week ago and 3,000 head less than a year ago. The CME lean hog index 2/17/2025: up $0.70, $90.19.

THURSDAY'S HOG CALL: Lower. Today's cash movement was again surprising following Tuesday's movement, which also saw 7,000 head sold. But at this point, packers have likely secured the majority of their needs for the week.

 

Wednesday Midday Livestock Market Summary - Traders Continue to Send Mixed Messages

GENERAL COMMENTS:

The livestock complex is again trading mixed as the marketplace lacks consensus from traders who are quick to back away and let the contracts turn lower. No cash cattle trade has developed yet and it's likely that trade will be delayed for another day or two. March corn is down 4 cents per bushel and March soybean meal is up $1.10. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 168.41 points.

LIVE CATTLE:

The back and forth nature of the live cattle market's game of cat and mouse, where one day the market closes lower to then be followed by mild technical support the next day, is shaping up to play true again in Wednesday's market. Besides the soon-to-expire February live cattle contracts, the rest of the live cattle contracts are trading mostly from $0.50 to $0.77 higher as traders seem to be looking around for one another's consensus as to whether or not enough immediate downside pressure has been inflicted upon the market. In the spot April contract, the market is within only $2.00 of its 100-day moving average, which remains a critical threshold to continue to monitor. April live cattle are up $0.75 at $194.77, June live cattle are up $0.57 at $190.97 and August live cattle are up $0.50 at $189.32. No cash cattle trade has developed yet, but asking prices are noted in the South at $202 to $204, and the North has yet to list their asking prices. Trade will likely be delayed another day or two.

Boxed beef prices are mixed: choice down $1.76 ($314.01) and select up $0.64 ($304.35) with a movement of 77 loads (54.67 loads of choice, 9.21 loads of select, zero loads of trim and 13.21 loads of ground beef).

FEEDER CATTLE:

Unfortunately, the momentum that pushed the feeder cattle complex sharply higher throughout all of Tuesday's market seems to have dissipated as the complex is now trading lower. The market is currently nearing a resistance level (at $270), which is imposing some technical pressure, but otherwise, traders seem to be waiting to see if any fundamental support develops and helps encourage higher trade. March feeders are down $1.12 at $268.60, April feeders are down $0.92 at $268.17 and May feeders are down $0.52 at $266.80.

LEAN HOGS:

With morning pork cutout values lower, and pressure noted in Tuesday's closing cutout price as well -- immense downward pressure has overtaken the lean hog complex. April lean hogs are down $3.00 at $90.20, June lean hogs are down $2.97 at $102.27 and July lean hogs are down $2.50 at $103.20. With the recent change in direction, the market has come under pressure and once again fallen below the resistance level at $92.00 in the spot April contract. In terms of what's driving the carcass price's decline on a per-individual cut basis, the tremendous $10.25 fall of the belly is to blame.

The projected lean hog index for 2/14/2025 is up $0.98 at $89.75, and the actual index for 2/13/2025 is up $0.71 at $88.77. Hog prices on the Daily Direct Morning Hog Report average $92.77, ranging from $87.50 to $94.00 on 5,649 head and a five-day rolling average of $91.33. Pork cutouts total 147.24 loads with 131.54 loads of pork cuts and 15.70 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: down $3.10, $96.37.

Wednesday Morning Livestock Market Update - Lower Cattle Prices Expected

GENERAL COMMENTS:

Traders were uncertain about the potential of live cattle futures. There is an expectation cash will trade lower this week as sales that were not done last week will be offered this week as cattle will be moved before prices fall further. The feedlots have lost control of the market for the time being and now the market is feeding on itself. Lower futures are influencing cash cattle trade. Packers are reducing their slaughter in an attempt to pay less for cattle and to support the weakening boxed beef. Boxed beef prices were mixed but continued to struggle overall. Choice cuts were up $0.07 with select down $2.52. Traders will also be cautious about the Cattle on Feed report to be released Friday.

Hog futures posted strong gains during the day but could not hold, closing moderately higher. June and July made new highs but fell back as pork cutouts appeared weaker. It seems the $3.00 decline of cutouts was overdone with some of that likely to be regained Wednesday. The National Daily Direct Afternoon Hog report showed cash up $2.28 as packers were aggressive and bought quite a few hogs. Slaughter remains strong so the fluctuation of cutouts is understandable. There is quite a bit of product to work though but increased demand is accomplishing the task as cutouts have been trending higher.

	BULL SIDE		BEAR SIDE
1)	Traders bought feeder cattle futures aggressively, anticipating the market might be overdone to the downside. Not much has changed fundamentally.	1)	The April live cattle contract closed at the lowest level since December 31, 2024. The trend remains down with further weakness likely.
2)	Cash has declined the past two weeks as feedlots needed to move cattle. Once those are gone the supply is expected to tighten.	2)	Boxed beef prices have been struggling as demand has been reduced. Consumers continue to face high grocery prices.
3)	Hog futures made new highs in the June and July contracts, keeping the uptrend intact. Futures should retest those levels again.	3)	Hog futures could not hold the highs falling back substantially as traders took quick profits.
4)	The packers have been aggressively purchasing hogs so far this week. They may remain that way for one more day to procure the needed supplies.	4)	The large decline in pork cutouts may limit the upside potential of futures for the time being.

Tuesday Closing Livestock Market Update - Mixed Tones Followed the Complex

GENERAL COMMENTS:

It was a mixed day for the livestock complex as both the lean hog and feeder cattle markets were able to close higher but the live cattle market's nearby contracts closed lower. No cash cattle trade developed throughout the day. March corn is up 5 3/4 cents per bushel and March soybean meal is down $2.10. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 10.26 points.

LIVE CATTLE:

The market wasn't able to shake the bearish technical turmoil that plagued the market last week and closed lower yet again today. But today the live cattle contracts closed mixed with the market's nearby contracts continuing in their painstaking lower trend, while the market's deferred contracts were able to close mildly higher. It's worth noting that today's close in the spot April contract is a futures complex low for the 2025 calendar year. And while the market seems to maintain its overall bullish tone despite the setback the futures complex is currently enduring -- pressure is likely to remain a common theme throughout the week as cash cattle prices are expected to trade lower and this Friday's Cattle on Feed report could be a bear that the market has to dance with given that placements are expected to be higher than a year ago. April live cattle closed $0.22 lower at $194.02, June live cattle closed $0.05 lower at $190.40 and August live cattle closed $0.05 higher at $188.82. No cash cattle trade developed throughout the day and trade isn't expected to develop until Thursday or Friday. 

Tuesday's slaughter is estimated at 118,000 head -- 4,000 head less than a week ago and 8,000 head less than a year ago.

Boxed beef prices closed mixed: choice up $0.07 ($315.77) and select down $2.52 ($303.71) with a movement of 140 loads (84.52 loads of choice, 26.95 loads of select, 14.32 loads of trim and 14.36 loads of ground beef).

WEDNESDAY'S CATTLE CALL: Lower. Packers were again able to buy up supply last week so it's likely that cash prices will trade lower this week.

FEEDER CATTLE:

The feeder cattle complex didn't hold back throughout Tuesday's trade as the market ran $2.00 to $3.00 higher even though the live cattle complex lent virtually no support and nearby corn contracts closed between $0.05 to $0.07 higher. Nonetheless, the spot March feeder cattle contract was able to close above its 40-day moving average which has been a teetering threshold for the market and comes as a big success for today's close. March feeders closed $3.37 higher at $269.72, April feeders closed $2.67 higher at $269.10 and May feeders closed $2.32 higher at $267.32. At Roswell Livestock Auction in Roswell, New Mexico compared to last week, steer calves weighing 300 to 350 pounds sold $5.00 lower with steers weighing 350 to 500 pounds trading steady to $7.00 higher but steers weighing 500 to 600 pounds sold $10.00 to $12.00 lower. Heifer calves weighing 350 to 400 pounds and heifers weighing 550 to 650 pounds sold $4.00 to $9.00 lower, but those weighing 300 to 350 pounds and heifers weighing 450 to 550 pounds both traded $2.00 to $9.00 higher. The CME feeder cattle index 2/17/2025: up $1.69, $277.99.

LEAN HOGS:

The lean hog complex closed higher as traders remain committed to supporting the market after it showed just last week that it could indeed take out its previous resistance at $92.00 and remain above that threshold. April lean hogs closed $0.60 higher at $93.20, June lean hogs closed $0.57 higher at $105.25 and July lean hogs closed $0.35 higher at $105.70. The market's fundamentals were mixed this afternoon as the cash market saw a huge movement (over 7,000 head) and prices were higher -- but pork cutout values were disappointing with a sharp decline. Hog prices closed higher on the Daily Direct Afternoon Hog Report, up $2.28 with a weighted average price of $91.79 on 7,017 head. Pork cutouts totaled 301.42 loads with 256.23 loads of pork cuts and 45.19 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: down $3.00, $99.47. Tuesday's slaughter is estimated at 490,000 head -- 1,000 head less than a week ago and 1,000 head more than a year ago. The CME lean hog index 2/14/2025: up $0.72, $89.49.

WEDNESDAY'S HOG CALL: Steady/somewhat lower. Given that today's movement was so vast, it's likely that packers aren't as aggressive on Wednesday.