Tuesday Midday Livestock Market Summary - Traders Mildly Push Cattle Contracts Higher

GENERAL COMMENTS:

The livestock complex is again trading mixed as the cattle contracts attempt to trade higher, but the lean hog contracts are trading mixed. Still no cash cattle trade has developed, and trade will likely be delayed until Thursday or Friday. July corn is up 4 1/2 cents per bushel and July soybean meal is up $1.40. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 154.54 points and the NASDAQ is down 72.74 points.

LIVE CATTLE:

Try as it might, try as it hopes, try as it wants, the live cattle complex may be trading mildly higher, but the stars simply don't seem to be aligning for the market to be gaining any momentum. June live cattle are up $0.30 at $213.27, August live cattle are down $0.30 at $207.62 and October live cattle are steady at $205.07. Following the rally and the sharp decline endured late last week, the live cattle complex seems stagnant as traders don't possess enough support to move the complex any higher at this point. Still no cash cattle trade has developed, and trade will likely be delayed until Thursday or Friday.

Boxed beef prices are higher: choice up $5.63 ($360.44) and select up $1.01 ($345.12) with a movement of 40 loads (27.81 loads of choice, 4.92 loads of select, zero loads of trim and 7.44 loads of ground beef).

FEEDER CATTLE:

The feeder cattle complex is also trading mildly higher as it's cautiously following in the live cattle market's wake. August feeders are up $0.20 at $297.67, September feeders are up $0.15 at $296.47 and October feeders are up $0.32 at 294.37. It's likely that so long as the live cattle complex continues to trade higher that the feeder cattle market will as well. So far this week, it seems as though prices are trading mostly steady in sale barns across the countryside.

LEAN HOGS:

The lean hog complex is trading mixed as traders remain leery of coming up against the market's resistance threshold, as they simply don't possess enough power and support to break above that price point currently. Not to mention, it's not helpful either that midday pork cutout values are lower and that cash prices are as well. June lean hogs are down $0.07 at $99.17, July lean hogs are down $0.82 at $102.75 and August lean hogs are down $0.75 at $102.35.

The projected lean hog index for 5/19/2025 is up $0.39 at $91.85, and the actual index for 5/16/2025 is up $0.20 at $91.46. Hog prices are lower on the Daily Direct Morning Hog Report, down $0.40 with a weighted average price of $94.51, ranging from $90.00 to $97.00 on 1,160 head and a five-day rolling average of $93.81. Pork cutouts total 170.29 loads, with 154.41 loads of pork cuts and 15.88 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: down $0.53, $100.56.

Tuesday Morning Livestock Market Update - Hogs May Develop Greater Support

GENERAL COMMENTS:

Live cattle futures closed higher Monday as there was interest in buying the break. Strong cattle market fundamentals increase the interest in long-term ownership of futures contracts. However, if prices remained at the current levels for an extended time, it would be incredible. Cattle prices do not need to continue higher to maintain profitability. Stability will accomplish a similar purpose. Boxed beef prices were higher on Monday, with choice up $2.32 and select up $1.72. Traders have two things to consider for the rest of this week. One is that the Cattle on Feed report will be released Friday. The other is that packers have been aggressively purchasing cattle for deferred delivery. Of the cattle purchases last week, 40% of those were for later delivery, reducing the need for the packers to be aggressive.

Hog futures were the recipients of spread trading Monday, likely due to cash weakness Friday. However, that may be short-lived as cash rebounded on Monday. The National Direct Afternoon Hog report showed a jump of $4.41 on light volume. Packers usually are not aggressive on Mondays, but they wanted to take advantage of the lower prices and wanted to purchase earlier this week due to the upcoming Memorial Day weekend. Packers are expected to be aggressive again Tuesday. Pork cutouts were higher, posting a gain of $0.97.

	BULL SIDE		BEAR SIDE
1)	The fundamentals of the cattle market have not changed and may keep traders interested in buying contracts for the long term. Price breaks will be buying opportunities.	1)	Packers are surrounding themselves with greater cattle supplies. This may limit their aggressiveness in the cash market, resulting in lower cash.
2)	Boxed beef prices remain incredibly strong and demand may not decrease much after the Memorial Day weekend. Consumers continue to prefer beef.	2)	Beef demand may slow after the Memorial Day weekend. The high prices may lead to reduced consumption during the summer.
3)	The substantial rebound in cash Monday indicates Friday's decline was an aberration, leaving hog producers holding out for higher prices.	3)	The supply of hogs remains sufficient for demand, leaving packers less aggressive in the market. Cash may have limited upside potential.
4)	Pork cutouts have shown more strength, indicating demand may be improving as the summer grilling season nears.	4)	Pork cutouts need to see greater consistency in price strength to get traders more excited over long-term price strength.

Monday Closing Livestock Market Update - Traders Show Complex Mixed Interest

GENERAL COMMENTS:

It was a mixed session for the livestock complex Monday as some of the markets were fully supported, but others faced technical pressure. New showlists appear to be mixed, about steady in Nebraska/Colorado, but lower in Kansas and Texas. July corn is up 4 cents per bushel and July soybean meal is down $0.80. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 137.33 points and NASDAQ is up 4.36 points.

LIVE CATTLE:

It was a successful day in the fact that futures contracts closed higher in the live cattle complex, but traders weren't willing move the complex aggressively as they still question if the complex is overbought. June live cattle closed $0.75 higher at $212.97, August live cattle closed $1.17 higher at $207.92 and October live cattle closed $1.10 higher at $205.07. It was supportive, however, that boxed beef prices closed higher -- seeing an improvement in consumer demand will hopefully improve packer morale. Monday's slaughter is estimated at 115,000 head -- 16,000 head more than a week ago and 3,000 head less than a year ago. New showlists appear to be mixed, about steady in Nebraska/Colorado, but lower in Kansas and Texas.

Just last week the fed cash cattle market saw Southern live cattle trade mostly $219 to $220, which is steady to $1.00 higher than the previous week's weighted average. But Northern dressed cattle traded at mostly $358, which is $2.00 higher than the previous week's weighted average. Both price ranges are new record highs for both regions. And last week's negotiated cash cattle trade totaled 81,722 head -- with 60% (48,654 head) of the cattle being committed to the nearby delivery, and the remaining 40% (33,068 head) were committed to the deferred delivery option.

Boxed beef prices closed higher: choice up $2.32 ($354.81) and select up $1.72 ($344.11) with a movement of 72 loads (36.52 loads of choice, 10.89 loads of select, 11.81 loads of ground beef and 12.98 loads of trim).

TUEDAY'S CATTLE CALL: Steady. With packers having some supply committed to them, it's likely prices will trade steady this week.

FEEDER CATTLE:

The feeder cattle complex wasn't as well supported as the live cattle contracts throughout Monday as it closed mixed. August feeders closed $0.12 lower at $297.47, September feeders closed $0.05 higher at $296.32 and October feeders closed $0.15 higher at $294.05. Traders seem to be indicating although the market endured a technical correction last week they still believe prices are plenty high as they're showing signs of exhaustion. At the midpoint session at Joplin Regional Stockyards in Carthage, Missouri, compared to last week feeder steers were selling steady to $5.00 lower, and feeder heifers were trading $5.00 lower to $5.00 higher. Feeder cattle supply over 600 pounds was 45%. The CME Feeder Cattle Index 5/16/2025: down $1.93, $298.86.

LEAN HOGS:

The lean hog complex felt some pressure throughout Monday as, although traders would like to support and push the contracts higher, the market's technical resistance is just too significant right now. June lean hogs closed $1.07 lower at $99.25, July lean hogs closed $0.60 lower at $103.57 and August lean hogs closed $0.52 lower at $103.10. It's always helpful when pork cutout values close higher -- but before traders put much clout in the higher note of pork cutout values, they're going to need to see cutout values close higher for a series of consecutive days. But the gains were noticeable Monday afternoon with the rib up $4.56, and the butt up $3.44. Hog prices closed higher on the Daily Direct Morning Hog Report, up $4.41 with a weighted average price of $92.51 on 1,164 head. Pork cutouts totaled 204.62 loads with 175.00 loads of pork cuts and 29.62 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: up $0.97, $101.09. Monday's slaughter is estimated at 480,000 head -- 14,000 head more than a week ago and 1,000 head more than a year ago. The CME Lean Hog Index 5/15/2025: up $0.24, $91.26.

TUESDAY'S HOG CALL: Higher. Given that prices were up sharply this afternoon, it's likely packers need more hogs.

Monday Midday Livestock Market Update - Cattle Markets Start the Week Out Stronger

GENERAL COMMENTS:

The livestock complex is trading mixed as the cattle contracts are trading mildly higher into midday Monday, while the lean hog complex is mixed. So long as fundamental support remains strong this week, the cattle complex seems to be willing to maintain its higher trend. July corn is up 1 1/4 cents per bushel and July soybean meal is down $0.50. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 67.09 points and the NASDAQ is down 52.17 points.

LIVE CATTLE:

The live cattle complex is trading higher into Monday's noon hour as the market seems pleased with the slight technical reset last week. Upon veering away from the market's resistance threshold, trades appear to be more at ease with advancing the contracts, not to mention the added support of stronger boxed beef prices helps too. June live cattle are up $1.02 at $213.25, August live cattle are up $1.50 at $208.25 and October live cattle are up $1.52 at $205.50.

Last week, Southern live cattle traded at mostly $218 to $220, which is $1.00 lower to $1.00 higher than the previous week's weighted average. Northern dressed cattle traded at mostly $358, which is $2.00 higher than last week's weighted average.

Boxed beef prices are higher: choice up $1.40 ($353.89) and select up $2.17 ($344.56) with a movement of 42 loads (17.70 loads of choice, 6.64 loads of select, 8.51 loads of trim and 8.68 loads of ground beef).

FEEDER CATTLE:

Aside from the soon-to-expire May feeder cattle contract, the feeder cattle complex as a whole is trading higher thanks to the added support of the live cattle market's higher trend and stronger boxed beef prices. August feeders are up $0.55 at $298.15, September feeders are up $0.80 at $297.07 and October feeders are up $0.60 at $294.50. With the technical reset that shook out last week, the market is no longer up against immediate technical pressure, which could mean that traders have an easier time advancing the contracts this week if support remains plentiful.

LEAN HOGS:

The lean hog complex is trading mixed into Monday's noon hour as the nearby contracts aren't confident that the market possesses enough immediate support to sustain its position above resistance pressure. Meanwhile, the deferred contracts are trading mildly higher. June lean hogs are down $1.02 at $99.30, July lean hogs are down $0.65 at $103.52 and August lean hogs are down $0.47 at $103.15.

The projected lean hog index for 5/16/2025 is up $0.20 at $91.46, and the actual index for 5/15/2025 is up $0.24 at $91.26. Hog prices on the Daily Direct Morning Hog Report are unavailable because of confidentiality. However, we can see that only 1,277 head have traded this morning and that the week's five-day rolling average now sits at $93.73. Pork cutouts total 114.21 l