Wednesday Closing Livestock Market Update - Cattle Contracts Leap Sharply Higher

GENERAL COMMENTS:

The livestock complex closed mostly higher Wednesday afternoon as the cattle complex continued to rally aggressively through the day's end, and the lean hog contracts turned mixed ahead of the day's close, thanks to the slight uptick in demand. A little bit of cash cattle trade developed in Nebraska, where prices were steady to a tick higher than last week's weighted average, but no trade developed in the South. December corn is up 3/4 cent per bushel and December soybean meal is up $1.30. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 16.04 points and the NASDAQ is down 142.09 points.

LIVE CATTLE:

It was an awe-struck day for the live cattle complex as the contracts leaped $2.00 to $3.00 higher as traders shot the market straight up, thanks to the continued support of the market's fundamentals. Yes, choice cuts may have closed slightly lower, but you still can't say anything negative about beef demand when choice cuts are over $4.00/pound. There was a thin movement in the cash cattle market in Nebraska, where packers were able to get some dressed cattle bought at $385 and live cattle at $245, which is steady to tick higher than last week's weighted average. Still no trade has developed in the South, but asking prices remain firm at $240. October live cattle closed $3.50 higher at $234.85, December live cattle closed $3.20 higher at $236.45 and February live cattle closed $2.70 higher at $237.37. Today's technical breakout does indeed score another new contract high for the spot October contract. 

Wednesday's slaughter is estimated at 118,000 head, 2,000 head more than a week ago and 3,000 head less than a year ago.

Boxed beef prices closed mixed: choice down $1.35 ($405.85) and select up $3.40 ($383.16) with a movement of 102 loads (61.21 loads of choice, 21.96 loads of select, 8.32 loads of trim and 10.40 loads of ground beef).

THURSDAY'S CATTLE CALL: Steady to $2.00 higher. With the continued support of the futures complex and feedlots still in a position where they can elect to roll their showlists over if prices aren't what they want, it's likely that cattle will trade steady to somewhat higher later this week when the market sets its tone.

FEEDER CATTLE:

It was a fantastic day for the feeder cattle complex as the market shot sharply higher and didn't look back. Between the surge in boxed beef demand and the continued support in feeder cattle sales in the countryside, the feeder cattle complex had no reservations about trading higher through Wednesday's hours. September feeders closed $5.67 higher at $358.10, October feeders closed $5.37 higher at $357.67 and November feeders closed $5.30 higher at $356.07. At the Winter Livestock Auction in Dodge City, Kansas, compared to last week, steer and heifers under 650 pounds sold $10.00 lower but reputation calves of that weight brought up to $10.00 higher. Steer and heifers over 600 pounds were not well tested, but a higher undertone was noted. Feeder cattle supply over 600 pounds was 46%. The CME feeder cattle index 8/19/2025: up $0.60, $345.58.

LEAN HOGS:

Thankfully, traders took note of the slight uptick in demand and were willing to allow some of the late 2025/early 2026 contracts to close higher ahead of Wednesday's end. The carcass price was mainly supported by the rib's $3.19 jump, and the picnic's $3.01 gain, which helped offset the $2.72 fall in the belly. Traders remain unsure of what to do with the lean hog futures contracts, which is why monitoring of the market's fundamentals is going to remain all the more important for the next little while. October lean hogs closed $0.20 lower at $89.95, December lean hogs closed steady at $82.97 and February lean hogs closed $0.07 higher at $85.87. Hog prices closed $0.15 higher on the Daily Direct Afternoon Hog Report, with a weighted average price of $109.81 on 3,808 head. Pork cutouts totaled 275.38 loads with 244.74 loads of pork cuts and 30.63 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: up $0.60, $113.01. Wednesday's slaughter is estimated at 480,000 head, 2,000 head more than a week ago and 1,000 head less than a year ago. The CME lean hog index 8/18/2025: down $0.52, $109.06.

THURSDAY'S HOG CALL: Lower. At this point, packers have likely fulfilled the vast majority of their cash needs for the week.

Wednesday Midday Livestock Market Update - Traders Launch the Cattle Complex Sharply Higher

GENERAL COMMENTS:

The cattle complex is spiraling higher into Wednesday's noon hour as traders again point to the market's strong fundamental support and have elected to push the contracts substantially higher. Meanwhile, the lean hog complex is trading lower as traders aren't as confident about its market position. December corn is down 1/4 cent per bushel and December soybean meal is up $1.80. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 16.30 points and the NASDAQ is down 203.10 points.

LIVE CATTLE:

If you would have told me yesterday afternoon at the day's close that by midday Wednesday the live cattle complex would be trading $2.00 to $3.00 higher, I probably would have looked at you wide-eyed, slightly panicked internally, and then shrugged and said something along the lines of, "at this point anything is to be expected!" But the bullish energy has indeed taken over the cattle complex this morning. The contracts have shot wildly higher, breaking through the market's previous resistance, and seem to point to the fundamental support of the boxed beef sector and the hope that fed cash cattle prices will trade higher this week. At this point, there's been no trade in the cash cattle complex, but it is assumed prices will steady to somewhat higher again this week. Asking prices are noted in the South at $240, but are still not established in the North. October live cattle are up $3.27 at $234.70, December live cattle are up $2.77 at $236.02 and February live cattle are up $2.22 at $236.90.

Boxed beef prices are mixed: choice down $1.77 ($405.43) and select up $1.99 ($381.75) with a movement of 75 loads (46.11 loads of choice, 15.25 loads of select, 5.44 loads of trim and 7.90 loads of ground beef).

FEEDER CATTLE:

The feeder cattle complex has been on a steady, rocket-launch type rally this week, and today only bolsters that claim as the contracts are trading mostly $4.00 higher into Wednesday's noon hour. September feeders are up $4.52 at $356.95, October feeders are up $4.20 at $356.57 and November feeders are up $4.10 at $354.87. And yes, demand remains incredibly high in the countryside for both calves and feeders, which is undoubtedly lending traders steady, stable, constant support.

LEAN HOGS:

The lean hog complex is the dud of the morning for the livestock sector as it is again trading lower into the day's noon hour. October lean hogs are down $0.45 at $89.70, December lean hogs are down $0.17 at $82.80 and February lean hogs are down $0.17 at $85.62. There's a chance that the futures complex could change its tune this afternoon as pork cutout values are higher.

The projected lean hog index for 8/19/2025 is down $0.49 at $108.57, and the actual index for 8/18/2025 is down $0.52 at $109.06. Hog prices closed lower on the Daily Direct Morning Hog Report, down $1.10 with a weighted average price of $109.84, ranging from $100.00 to $111.00 on 3,618 head and a five-day rolling average of $110.23. Pork cutouts totaled 157.43 loads with 138.09 loads of pork cuts and 19.34 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: up $1.49, $113.90.

Wednesday Morning Livestock Market Update - Higher Cash Cattle Trade Expected

GENERAL COMMENTS:

Boxed beef prices increased in both categories Tuesday, providing further support to the market. Choice boxed beef increased $2.96, with select up $2.62. There is a strong demand for beef even though prices continue to increase. Reduced slaughter has increased beef prices, but it also puts packers in a position where they may need to pay more for cattle this week, as they may be short-bought due to limited cash trade last week. One would think cash business would need to be done earlier this week to obtain the cattle needed to meet demand. However, the Cattle on Feed report will be released Friday and, many times, cash trading is delayed until the day of the report as either packers or feedlots hope for an advantage. The estimates for the Cattle on Feed report are for on-feed numbers Aug. 1 at 98.1% of a year ago. Placements in July of 91.2% and marketings in July at 94.1%.

Hog futures could not find sufficient fundamental support to trigger the excitement of traders Tuesday. Futures closing mixed is considered a victory, as there has been little for traders to establish a trend. The positive aspect is that futures are holding, as traders seem confident to hold their long positions. Cash was higher Tuesday, with the National Daily Direct Afternoon Hog report showing a gain of $1.96. However, the substantial weakness in cutouts does not bode well for demand. Pork cutouts fell $3.95, with the average at $112.41. Packers have been reducing slaughter, but it has not improved their margins much.

	BULL SIDE		BEAR SIDE
1)	Strong boxed beef prices indicate solid demand. Consumers have yet to reduce beef consumption.	1)	Traders may begin positioning ahead of the Cattle on Feed report, which could result in selling pressure.
2)	Packers did not purchase many cattle last week, likely putting them into a short-bought position requiring them to pay up for cattle this week.	2)	Labor Day weekend is approaching and retail buying of beef may slow as demand for the holiday is filled.
3)	Hog futures are holding support, with traders confident that futures will increase to reduce the discount to cash.	3)	Hog traders will need to see stronger fundamental support; otherwise, they may liquidate due to limited upside potential.
4)	Packers should remain aggressive buyers again today as they seek to procure much of what they need for the week.	4)	The supply of market-ready hogs remains sufficient with packers having little difficulty getting what they need without chasing the market.

Tuesday Closing Livestock Market Update - Traders Again Push Feeder Cattle Complex to New Highs

GENERAL COMMENTS:

It was a mixed day for the livestock complex as the cattle complex saw ample demand, but the lean hog contracts closed lower as traders remained skeptical of whether or not the market possessed enough support to justify Monday's move. Still no cash cattle trade has developed. December corn is down 3 1/4 cents per bushel and December soybean meal is up $4.10. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 10.45 points and the NASDAQ is down 314.82 points.

LIVE CATTLE:

The live cattle complex closed mostly higher, although a couple of the nearby contracts did end the day slightly lower. But the big takeaway from Tuesday's market was that, thanks to the continued support of strong beef demand, traders are remaining engaged and active in the marketplace despite nearing resistance levels. October live cattle closed $0.17 higher at $231.35, December live cattle closed $0.02 lower at $233.25, and February live cattle closed $0.27 higher at $234.67. Asking prices are noted in the South at $240, but remain unestablished in the North. 

Tuesday's slaughter is estimated at 116,000 head, 2,000 head more than a week ago and 5,000 head less than a year ago.

Boxed beef prices closed higher: choice up $2.96 ($407.20) and select up $2.62 ($379.76) with a movement of 103 loads (73.27 loads of choice, 14.35 loads of select, 5.06 loads of trim and 10.11 loads of ground beef).

WEDNESDAY'S CATTLE CALL: Steady/somewhat higher. Given that feedlot managers possess enough leverage to roll their showlists over if they don't receive the prices they want, packers will likely end up paying at least steady prices in this week's fed cash cattle market, if not more, because boxed beef prices, and they also want to be able to market beef.

FEEDER CATTLE:

Another day, and new contract highs for the feeder cattle complex as demand remains utterly incredible in the countryside, and traders are pleased to see the live cattle complex trading higher as well. September feeders are up $1.50 at $352.42, October feeders are up $2.05 at $352.30 and November feeders are up $2.45 at $350.77. And with buyers knowing that feed prices (especially corn) are likely going to remain affordable this year, they understand that they're paying substantially more for cattle this year than in any year past, but thankfully, feed remains affordable for the time. At Oklahoma National Stockyards in Oklahoma City, Oklahoma, compared to last week, feeder steers traded $2.00 to $6.00 higher and feeder heifers traded $5.00 to $8.00 stronger. Steers and heifer calves sold sharply higher, with gains up to $25.00 stronger. The report noted that demand remains incredible for all classes. Feeder cattle supply over 600 pounds was 67%. The CME feeder cattle index 8/18/2025: up $2.81, $344.98.

LEAN HOGS:

The lean hog complex wasn't as well supported throughout the day as the cattle complex was, as traders questioned if they possessed enough support to justify Monday's higher move. October lean hogs closed $0.02 higher at $90.15, December lean hogs closed $0.47 lower at $82.97 and February lean hogs closed $0.45 lower at $85.80. Another disappointing factor was the day's demand as pork cutout values fell lower and the losses were significant. The bell closed $6.91 lower, the loin closed $5.57 lower and the picnic closed $4.85 lower. Hog prices closed higher on the Daily Direct Afternoon Hog Report, up $1.96 with a weighted average price of $109.56 on 9,055 head. Pork cutouts totaled 328.65 loads with 268.80 loads of pork cuts and 59.85 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: down $3.95, $112.41. Tuesday's slaughter is estimated at 477,000 head, 3,000 head less than a week ago and 5,000 head less than a year ago. The CME lean hog index 8/15/2025: down $0.22, $109.58.

WEDNESDAY'S HOG CALL: Steady. Packers showed more interest in today's market, and although it's not likely that they've fulfilled their total needs for the week, they will probably not be overly ambitious about pushing prices higher on Wednesday, as pork cutout values were noticeably lower on Tuesday.