Tuesday Morning Livestock Market Update - Cattle Futures May Show Further Weakness

GENERAL COMMENTS:

The initial strength in cattle futures waned Monday with contracts posting a steady decline throughout the day. Traders seem to have looked past the Cattle on Feed report and are focusing on the cash potential this week. Boxed beef showed substantial gains, with choice up $2.50 and select up $7.01. This moved the average choice value $0.05 above select. It is uncertain whether the cattle futures were influenced by the Justice Department's antitrust division examining whether large supplies manipulated the market in any way, resulting in higher beef prices, according to a report by the Wall Street Journal. However, the weakness may have been the result of traders being uncertain about the strength of cash this week and that the market is technically overbought. Feeder cattle prices have also shown some weakness recently, but that may only be temporary.

Hog futures found a reason for nearby contracts to close higher. Higher cash and cutouts, and the market being oversold, may have resulted in the buying interest. Later contracts closed slightly lower as traders remained uncertain over longer-term prices. However, if nearby contracts post further gains Tuesday, it may trigger further short-covering in the deferred contracts. The National Daily Direct Afternoon Hog report showed cash up $1.85. Packers may be aggressive again Tuesday as they step up and purchase after letting prices fall last week. Pork cutout values increased $1.00, potentially setting the stage for a stronger week.

	BULL SIDE		BEAR SIDE
1)	Beef prices are high due to tight cattle supplies and continued strong consumer demand. It may not be from market manipulation.	1)	Traders are concerned cash cattle prices may be lower this week. Feedlots can only hold cattle for so long before they need to bring them to market or lose money by continuing to feed them.
2)	Crude oil prices have been in a downtrend the past two weeks which may eventually lower fuel prices and improve the financial situation of consumers. Beef demand may remain strong.	2)	Cattle futures are overbought with fund traders holding near-record long positions. Further liquidation may be seen.
3)	Hog futures are oversold and the trading action on Monday may indicate traders are unwilling to press the market to the downside. This may result in short-covering.	3)	The strength of cash and cutouts on Monday does not indicate the hog market has found support.
4)	Pork may find more space on the grill this summer due to high beef prices. This may improve demand.	4)	Hog futures are oversold, but that is meaningless if traders are unable to find a reason to cover their short positions.

Monday Closing Livestock Market Update - Mixed Tones Dominate the Complex

GENERAL COMMENTS:

The livestock complex ended the day mixed as the live cattle and feeder cattle contracts closed lower while the lean hog contracts closed mixed. More than anything, it will be imperative that fundamental support remains evident for traders this week. New showlists appear to be modestly lower in Kansas, and lower in Texas and Nebraska/Colorado. May corn is up 3 1/4 cents per bushel and July soybean meal is down $6.00. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 4.87 points and the NASDAQ is down 64.09 points.

LIVE CATTLE:

It was again a mixed day for the live cattle complex as the futures contracts closed lower, but from a fundamental sense, it was positive to see boxed beef prices close higher, with once again select prices rising above choice prices. April live cattle closed $0.35 lower at $249.60, June live cattle closed $1.27 lower at $246.07 and August live cattle closed $1.22 lower at $241.60. No cash cattle trade developed throughout the day, and trade will likely be delayed until later in the week. New showlists appear to be modestly lower in Kansas, and lower in Texas and Nebraska/Colorado. Monday's slaughter is estimated at 97,000 head, 7,000 head less than a week ago and 6,000 head less than a year ago.

Last week Northern dressed cattle traded at $385 to $392, but mostly at $388, which is steady to $1.00 lower than the previous week's weighted average. Southern live cattle traded at mostly $248, which is generally steady with the previous week's weighted average.

Boxed beef prices closed higher: choice up $2.50 ($383.56) and select up $7.01 ($383.61) with a movement of 65 loads (42.82 loads of choice, 5.96 loads of select, 5.97 loads of trim and 9.94 loads of ground beef).

TUESDAY'S CATTLE CALL: Steady. With prime grilling season right around the corner, feedlots may be able to hold cash price steady this week if they really pressure packers.

FEEDER CATTLE:

The feeder cattle complex was anxious throughout the day, and that trickled down and affected sale barns across the countryside, as well as lower trends were noted there, too. April feeders closed $2.45 lower at $368.87, May feeders closed $4.17 lower at $361.10 and August feeders closed $4.32 lower at $361.35. And until some sizeable support develops in the live cattle/fed cash cattle markets, weaker tones could be seen in the feeder cattle complex. At Joplin Regional Stockyards in Carthage, Missouri, compared to last week and at their midpoint session, feeder steers and heifers were trading $5.00 to $15.00 lower than compared to last week. Feeder cattle supply over 600 pounds was 64%. The CME feeder cattle index: down $1.98, $375.69.

LEAN HOGS:

The lean hog complex ended the day mixed, with the nearby contracts able to close higher while the deferred contracts ended the day a tick lower. What's been extremely helpful to the complex as of late is the uptick in pork demand, which is partly to credit for the strength in the nearby contracts as well. June lean hogs closed $0.67 higher at $101.72, July lean hogs closed $0.32 higher at $104.00 and August lean hogs closed $0.10 higher at $104.00. Hog prices closed higher on the Daily Direct Afternoon Hog Report, up $1.85 with a weighted average price of $92.13 on 3,121 head. Pork cutouts totaled 252.60 loads with 225.83 loads of pork cuts and 26.77 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: up $1.00, $100.20. Monday's slaughter is estimated at 492,000 head, steady with a week ago and 140,000 head more than a year ago. The CME lean hog index 4/16/2026: down $0.15, $90.51.

TUESDAY'S HOG CALL: Higher. With pork demand seeing an uptick in consumer demand, there's a chance that packers could be more aggressive in the cash market as well on Tuesday.

Monday Midday Livestock Market Summary - Complex Mixed

GENERAL COMMENTS:

The livestock complex is mixed Monday with the live cattle contracts fully higher while the feeder cattle and lean hog contracts are mixed. If stronger cash cattle trade develops during the week, trades will likely feel more comfortable pushing the contracts higher. May corn is up 3 1/2 cents per bushel and July soybean meal is down $4.60. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 68.00 points and NASDAQ is down 157.54 points.

LIVE CATTLE:

The live cattle complex is enjoying a modest rally at the week's start as traders feel the market endured enough immediate downward pressure late last week and they're also pleased with last Friday's Cattle on Feed report. It's too early in the week to say whether the market will be able to scale higher following last week's slight correction -- as really that decision is going to be based on whether fundamental support arises (especially from the cash market). April live cattle are up $0.87 at $250.82, June live cattle are up $0.40 at $247.75 and August live cattle are up $0.67 at $243.50.

Last week Northern dressed cattle traded at $385 to $392, but mostly at $388 which is steady to $1.00 lower than the previous week's weighted average and Southern live cattle traded at mostly $248 which is generally steady with the previous week's weighted average.

Boxed beef prices are higher: choice up $2.00 ($383.06) and select up $5.92 ($383.52) with a movement of 30 loads (20.91 loads of choice, 3.72 loads of select, zero loads of trim and 5.26 loads of ground beef).

FEEDER CATTLE:

The feeder cattle contracts were trading mostly higher throughout the morning, but as the noon hour nears the market is seeing most of its nearby contracts change directions and trade lower. April feeder cattle are up $0.15 at $371.47, May feeders are down $0.32 at $364.95 and August feeders are down $0.30 at $365.37. More than anything it's likely traders yearn to see greater fundamental support before they advance the contracts much more.

LEAN HOGS:

The lean hog contracts are mixed headed into Monday's noon hour with the nearby contracts slightly higher while the deferred months scale lower. June lean hogs are up $0.50 at $101.55, July lean hogs are up $0.10 at $103.77 and August lean hogs are steady at $103.90. Thankfully some of the upward movement in the nearby contracts likely stems from traders recognizing the fundamental support from consumers which has trended higher over the last several trading days.

The projected CME Lean Hog Index for 4/17/2026 is down $0.14 at $90.37, and the actual index for 4/16/2026 is down $0.15 at $90.51. Hog prices are unavailable on the Daily Direct Morning Hog Report because of confidentiality; however we can see that only 330 head have traded this morning and the market's five-day rolling average now sits at $91.13. Pork cutouts total 134.05 loads with 115.19 loads of pork cuts and 18.87 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: up $1.86, $101.06.

Monday Morning Livestock Market Update - Cattle Futures May Rebound

GENERAL COMMENTS:

Cattle futures showed some surprising weakness, falling significantly for 15 minutes around midmorning for no apparent reason other than sell stops being triggered. Futures regained most of those losses as the day progressed. The Cattle on Feed report was neutral to slightly friendly. On feed as of April 1 was 99.5% of a year ago. Placements were at 92.7% compared to March 2025. Both the on-feed and placement numbers were below the average trade estimates. Marketings were 94.5% and slightly above the average trade estimate. Cattle futures moved lower ahead of the report but may regain some of the losses Monday. The cash cattle trade was basically unchanged from the previous week. Early estimates are for steady to slightly lower cash trade this week. Boxed beef prices were lower, with choice down $0.51 and select down $1.88. The Commitments of Traders report showed the fund traders added 3,424 long futures contracts in live cattle, moving their net-long position to 132,839. They added 836 long positions to feeder cattle, bringing their net-long position to 21,951 contracts.

It was not a good week for hog futures, with contracts closing lower each day. The market is oversold, but that may be meaningless if traders see little fundamental reason to be aggressive, given the lack of fundamental support. Pork demand is improving, but supplies are sufficient with increased slaughter providing sufficient pork to the market. The National Daily Direct Afternoon Hog report showed cash up $0.12, leaving much to be desired. Packers are expected to be less aggressive at the start of the week. Pork cutouts did well on Friday, with values up $2.52. The Commitments of Traders report showed fund traders reducing their net-long futures position in hogs by 10,695, to a total long position of 78,031 contracts.

	BULL SIDE		BEAR SIDE
1)	The Cattle on Feed report was slightly friendly and may move higher as the market adjusts after positioning ahead of the report.	1)	The Cattle on Feed report was expected to be friendly, yet the market declined ahead of the report. This may indicate the market may be near a peak.
2)	Cattle supplies remain tight, and consumers continue to prefer beef and are paying higher prices to obtain it. Tight cattle supplies will continue.	2)	Cattle prices were unable to post gains last week as packers remained unaggressive. The same might be true this week.
3)	Hog futures are oversold and should find a level at which buyers will take advantage of the lower price.	3)	Consistent support from both cash hogs and pork cutouts remains elusive. Traders may remain unaggressive.