Friday Closing Livestock Market Update - Futures Post Limit Losses

GENERAL COMMENTS:

From Friday to Friday, livestock futures scored the following changes: April Live cattle off $6.20, June Live cattle off $6.65; April Feeder cattle off $7.50, May Feeder cattle off $10.30; April Lean hogs up $0.67, June Lean hogs off $4.23; April Pork cutout off $0.42, May Pork cutout unchanged.

Livestock markets were hit hard once again Friday following aggressive market pressure in nearly all commodity market sectors. The corn complex seems to be the only actively traded commodity market that avoided aggressive losses on Friday and through the end of the week. Not only did aggressive liquidation develop in stock markets, but energy markets also continued lower with crude oil futures falling $4 per barrel and Gold falling over $63 per ounce. All livestock futures hit daily trading limit losses throughout the day, allowing for expanded trade limits Monday. Continued concern about how tariffs will impact the economy and how China's announcement of countermeasure tariffs will further escalate the situation has traders beyond nervous heading into the weekend. Hog prices closed lower on the Daily Direct Afternoon hog report, down $0.27 with a weighted average of $87.4 on 2,167 hogs. May corn closed up 2 3/4 at $4.603 and May soybean meal closed down $4.90 at $283.1. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 2,231.07 at 38,314.86.

LIVE CATTLE:

Live cattle futures turned sharply lower once again Friday. June and October contracts closed limit lower with losses of $6.50 per cwt Friday afternoon. This was enough to allow the entire complex to have expanded trade limits in place Monday morning. The new trading limit for Monday will be $9.75 per cwt. April live cattle futures which were making history just days ago with prices above $210 per cwt, are now only $2.65 per cwt above the $200 per cwt mark. All other contracts have moved below the $200 threshold once again, creating concern about additional liquidation developing across the entire complex in the days and weeks to come. Nearby contracts are still hovering above the 40- and 100-day moving averages, but these trigger points in the market are far from safe following the aggressive market pressure seen through the last half of the trading week. Nearby contracts have plummeted $8 to $9 per cwt over the past two trading sessions, leading to more concern in all segments of the market. Cash cattle markets posted additional activity Friday afternoon with light trade developing in most areas today with Southern live deals marked at mostly $208, $1 to $2 lower than last week's weighted averages. Northern dressed business was done at mostly $335, $4 lower than last week's weighted averages. (Majors paid mostly $335, while a Regional paid as much as $345, steady with last week's wide range of sales). April live cattle closed $5.43 lower at $202.625, June live cattle closed $6.50 lower at $198.20 and August live cattle closed $6.48 lower at $194.7. 

Friday's slaughter is estimated at 109,000 head, 2,000 head more than a week ago and 7,000 head less than a year ago. 

Boxed beef prices closed lower: choice down $1.53 ($338.37) and select down $0.99 ($317.84) with a movement of 131.32 loads (91.79 loads of choice, 15.50 loads of select, 7.99 loads of trim and 16.04 loads of ground beef).

MONDAY'S CATTLE CALL: Steady to $2 Lower. Early week activity is expected to remain at a complete standstill, which will hopefully give both sides time to reassess the overall market direction. The sharp losses in futures trade are likely to put a negative spin on cash values, at least for the short term.

FEEDER CATTLE:

Feeder cattle posted aggressive losses for the second straight trading session Friday. All but April and March 2026 contract months closed locked in limit lower trade of $8.25 per cwt. This move will expand trading limits Monday to $12.25 per cwt creating additional uncertainty and volatility through the market. Over the past two trading sessions, nearby feeder cattle futures have erased nearly all of the gains seen during the month of March. The 40-day moving average, which seemed a safe floor just two days ago has been breached in actively traded May contracts, with most nearby contracts approaching this trigger point at the end of the week. The hope is that the weekend break will allow for a calming effect before markets open Monday morning, but weekends can be tricky as market sediment can easily move in either direction in the absence of additional trade activity during weekend breaks. April feeders closed $5.98 lower at $279.425, May feeders closed $8.25 lower at $274.875 and August feeders closed $8.25 lower at $281.05. The CME Feeder Cattle Index for April 2: up $0.02, $291.95.

LEAN HOGS:

Lean hog futures followed the rest of the livestock markets, and most other markets lower Friday as traders remain extremely concerned about future demand. April contracts were lightly traded and ended unchanged as the current tariff levels do not impact immediate activity, but the rest of the complex posted aggressive losses. June and July futures closed $4 per cwt lower, which is the daily trading limit. Closing locked limit down for the day will cause expanded trading limits to be in effect for Monday. This will put Monday's trading limit for all lean hog futures trade at $6 per cwt. The hope is that emotions and trader activity will calm slightly over the weekend break, allowing for markets to take a more levelheaded approach early next week. But every time expanded limits are enacted, the potential for even more active liquidation exists. April lean hogs closed steady, May lean hogs closed $3.45 lower at $85.125 and June lean hogs closed $4.00 lower at $91.55. Friday's hog slaughter is estimated at 486,000 head, 15,000 head more than a week ago and 4,000 head more than a year ago. Pork Cutouts totaled 346.24 loads with 304.09 loads of pork cuts and 42.15 loads of trim. Pork cutout values are up $0.64 at $94.34. The CME Lean Hog Index for April 2: down $0.08, $88.72.

MONDAY'S HOG CALL: Steady. Sharp losses in futures trade and expanded trade limits Monday could add increased volatility to the complex, but packers continued need for short-term demand is likely to keep cash values from moving significantly lower in the immediate future.

Friday Midday Livestock Market Summary - Futures Tumble Further

GENERAL COMMENTS:

Livestock futures markets are seeing a second consecutive day of sharp losses in cattle contracts with traders focusing on the uncertainty surrounding how tariff levels and corresponding reactions from China will impact overall demand and price levels in the near and distant future. At this point, there is very little firm information about how long current market impacts will be seen, especially in livestock and meat markets. But traders are taking precautions and sharply lower prices reflect this market uncertainty. May corn is up 1 3/4 at $4.593 and May soybean meal is down $3.30 at $284.7. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 1,430.22 at 39,115.71.

LIVE CATTLE:

Live cattle futures are trading sharply lower Friday morning in reaction to additional tariff concerns and announcements that China is implementing corresponding tariffs starting next week. The overall lack of support in all livestock markets is following the pattern of sharp losses in the stock market and financial trade. Current losses of $4 to $5.50 per cwt seen in nearby contracts are still below daily trade limit levels of $6.50 per cwt. But daily limit moves are not out of the question through the end of the session. Cash cattle markets remain moderately active through the morning Friday with light trade reported in parts of the South at $208, $1 to $2 lower than last week's weighted averages, but generally steady with Thursday's very light scattered transactions. Northern business Thursday had dressed deals marked at mostly $335, with a regional packer paying as much as $345, generally steady with last week's wide range. It is expected that additional activity will develop through the afternoon Friday, although given the pressure in futures trade and outside markets, it is uncertain if packers will become more aggressive at this point. April live cattle are $3.73 lower at $204.325, June live cattle are $5.15 lower at $199.55, August live cattle are $5.13 lower at $196.05. 

Boxed beef prices are Higher: choice up $1.04 ($339.41) and select up $0.51 ($318.35) with a movement of 47.58 loads (36.33 loads of choice, 6.59 loads of select, zero loads of trim and 4.66 loads of ground beef).

FEEDER CATTLE:

Feeder cattle futures are sharply lower Friday morning with traders continuing to focus on the potential that this week's round of tariffs will have prolonged reactions. The announcement that China is implementing offsetting tariff actions starting next week is another indication of market problems. April contracts are showing the least pressure at this point, although losses nearing $6 per cwt are usually seen as disastrous for the market. But May and August futures are trading near $8 per cwt lower at midday, which is dangerously close to the $8.25 per cwt daily trading limit. A close at this limit would indicate expanded limits Monday. And if the continued bearishness holds over the weekend, this could continue to wipe out all of the gains seen this year. April feeders are $5.48 lower at $279.925, May feeders are $7.28 lower at $275.85 and August feeders are $7.15 lower at $282.15.

LEAN HOGS:

Lean hog futures have moved sharply lower, also focused on tariff levels and the announcement that China will impose tariffs starting next week. This has moved June futures to the $4 per cwt daily trading limit with most other nearby contracts near that level at midday. A close at these levels would indicate expanded trading limits Monday, creating potential additional pressure early next week. April lean hogs are $0.18 higher at $87.55, May lean hogs are $3.33 lower at $85.25 and June lean hogs are $3.95 lower at $91.60. Hog prices are higher on the Daily Direct Morning Hog report, up $0.04 with a weighted average of $87.38, ranging from $84.00 to $88.00 on 3,811 head with a five-day rolling average of $88.17. Pork cutouts totaled 181.39 loads with 162.71 loads of pork cuts and 18.68 loads of trim. Pork cutout values are up $5.12 at $97.08.

Friday Morning Livestock Market Update - Cattle Trade May Develop at Steady Cash

GENERAL COMMENTS:

Traders were rattled as substantial selling pressure permeated throughout the equity markets and other commodities. There was positive news as Mexico and Canada's livestock and beef are not impacted by the tariffs under the USMCA agreement. Tariffs have been put on beef imported from Australia, which could be supportive for the U.S. market. There were a few cattle traded on Thursday at steady money with last week. Packers may not bid higher than steady money to purchase cattle this week due to market uncertainty. Feedlots may be willing to sell cattle to avoid the potential for lower cash prices. Weekly export sales were better than the previous week with 9,300 metric tons (mt) reported. Sales will be closely monitored in the coming weeks to see if tariffs will impact international demand. Boxed beef prices were lower with choice down $1.53 and select down $0.99.

Hog futures were lower and suffered only double-digit losses. This was supportive given the substantial pressure seen on some of the other markets. Futures need to find support soon, or further liquidation could be triggered. International demand has been good with weekly export sales totaling 53,000 mt and a marketing-year high. Packers were not aggressive on Thursday with the National Daily Direct Afternoon report down $1.21. Pork cutouts gained $1.11. Packers may be willing to pay more for hogs Friday as they will want to complete purchases for the week. Futures may bounce ahead of the weekend if the outside markets find some footing.

	BULL SIDE		BEAR SIDE
1)	Higher tariffs on Australian beef may be supportive for the U.S. market as less beef may be imported.	1)	A slowing of the economy and a potential recession could impact beef demand and reduce prices despite tight cattle supplies.
2)	If the selling in the equity market settles down and finds some support, traders will be willing to continue to support the cattle markets.	2)	International beef demand may slow, allowing for more beef to be available to the domestic market.
3)	Hog futures held up well despite the pressure seen in many other markets. They had much of it already factored in.	3)	Hog futures have not been able to find consistent support from either cash or cutouts. Demand has not increased as anticipated.
4)	Pork export sales to Mexico should be unhindered. They are a large buyer of U.S. pork.	4)	China is imposing a 34% tariff on all U.S. imports. They are a large buyer of pork and would impact sales to the country.

Thursday Closing Livestock Market Update - Cattle Futures Tumble Lower

GENERAL COMMENTS:

Live cattle futures gave back all of Wednesday's gains and more, with active price pressure seen in all live cattle and feeder cattle contracts. Feeder cattle futures were most impacted with May contracts trading nearly $5 per cwt lower at the end of the session. Hog prices closed lower on the Daily Direct Afternoon hog report, down $1.21 with a weighted average of $87.67 on 3,580 hogs. May corn closed down 1/4 at $4.575 and May soybean meal closed up $0.80 at $288.00. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 1,679.39 at 40,545.93.

LIVE CATTLE:

Live cattle futures offset any momentum seen midweek with traders aggressively pushing prices lower as limited buyer activity developed given tariff uncertainty. The active buyer support over the past couple of months has left nearby live cattle futures in an interesting position. Even though fundamental beef demand is expected to remain firm through the summer months, and traders are not totally soured on the cattle market, with current price levels, traders at these price levels are becoming spooked much more easily. This is allowing for prices to develop the significant market shifts seen this week. Momentum is the biggest factor in market direction at this moment, and as seen over the past two days, it can easily shift and move the market in both directions. Cash cattle markets have developed some light trade is being reported in parts of Nebraska, Majors are paying $335 to $338 (the higher end is on special types), while a Regional has paid $345. Southern bids are at $208, which is well below current asking prices of around $212. Packer inquiry should continue to improve as the day progresses. In the morning release of the weekly export sales report, net sales of 9,300 MT for 2025 were up 16 percent from the previous week, but down 19 percent from the prior 4-week average. Increases primarily for South Korea (3,400 MT, including decreases of 500 MT), Japan (2,600 MT, including decreases of 800 MT), Hong Kong (800 MT, including decreases of 100 MT), Mexico (600 MT, including decreases of 100 MT), and China (500 MT, including decreases of 100 MT), were offset by reductions for Indonesia (200 MT). Exports of 14,900 MT were up 6 percent from the previous week and 2 percent from the prior 4-week average. The destinations were primarily South Korea (5,200 MT), Japan (3,300 MT), China (2,500 MT), Mexico (1,100 MT), and Taiwan (1,100 MT). April live cattle closed $2.33 lower at $208.05, June live cattle closed $2.70 lower at $204.70 and August live cattle closed $2.75 lower at $201.175. 

Thursday's slaughter is estimated at 121,000 head, 2,000 head more than a week ago and 2,000 head less than a year ago. 

Boxed beef prices closed lower: choice down $1.53 ($338.37) and select down $0.99 ($317.84) with a movement of 131.32 loads (91.79 loads of choice, 15.50 loads of select, 7.99 loads of trim and 16.04 loads of ground beef).

FRIDAY'S CATTLE CALL: Steady. With a few cash sales starting to develop, cash activity early Friday morning will likely be generally steady and overall muted. Packers and feeders are expected to wait to see how markets open Friday to get a better sense of overall market direction given the recent yo-yo effect seen in futures prices.

FEEDER CATTLE:

Feeder cattle futures led the complex lower Thursday with traders quickly focusing on the overall lack of uncertainty surrounding overall long-term demand given the aggressive price pressure in financial markets and implications that tariffs may have in the months to come. May contracts led the complex lower, closing $4.80 per cwt lower. Even with this latest market shift lower, nearby contracts are still fundamentally in an upward market trend given the recent optimism and buyer support. April feeders closed $3.48 lower at $285.4, May feeders closed $4.80 lower at $283.125 and August feeders closed $4.40 lower at $289.3. The CME Feeder Cattle Index for April 1: up $0.66, $291.93.

LEAN HOGS:

Lean hog futures ended the session weaker Thursday, but given the aggressive losses in both cattle trade and the stock market, the downward market pressure could have been much more significant. Spot April futures fell only 7.5 cents per cwt, becoming by far the most stable contract in livestock markets Thursday. More active pressure was seen in other nearby lean hog trade, with losses in May through August contracts now pushing price levels below the 40-day moving average. But the recent pressure in lean hog prices over the last month is likely to limit aggressive short-term pressure without solid news of demand shifts in the pork market. According to the weekly export sales report, net sales of 53,000 MT for 2025--a marketing-year high--were up 66 percent from the previous week and 88 percent from the prior 4-week average. Increases were primarily for Mexico (30,600 MT, including decreases of 300 MT), China (10,300 MT, including decreases of 100 MT), Japan (3,400 MT, including decreases of 300 MT), South Korea (3,000 MT, including decreases of 500 MT), and Colombia (1,800 MT, including decreases of 200 MT). Exports of 32,900 MT were up 4 percent from the previous week and 1 percent from the prior 4-week average. The destinations were primarily to Mexico (12,200 MT), South Korea (5,200 MT), Japan (4,100 MT), China (2,700 MT), and Colombia (2,300 MT). April lean hogs closed $0.08 lower at $87.375, May lean hogs closed $0.55 lower at $88.575 and June lean hogs closed $0.98 lower at $95.55. Thursday's hog slaughter is estimated at 488,000 head, 1,000 head less than a week ago and 0 head less than a year ago. Pork Cutouts totaled 347.75 loads with 305.60 loads of pork cuts and 42.15 loads of trim. Pork cutout values are up $1.11 at $94.81. The CME Lean Hog Index for April 1: up $0.15, $88.80.

FRIDAY'S HOG CALL: Steady. Initial bids are expected generally stable Friday morning. There remains uncertainty surrounding outside market direction and tariff implications, but it is uncertain if these shifts will impact short-term cash values at the end of the week.