Tuesday Closing Livestock Market Update - Traders Support Contracts

GENERAL COMMENTS:

It was a good day for the livestock complex as all three of the markets closed higher, but heading into Wednesday's trade, traders will again need to see improvement in both boxed beef and pork prices. No cash cattle trade has developed yet.

Hog prices closed higher on the Daily Direct Afternoon Hog Report, up $0.84 with a weighted average price of $93.25 on 13,968 head. July corn is down 2 cents per bushel and July soybean meal is down $4.40. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 31.99 points.

LIVE CATTLE:

It was a good day for the live cattle complex as the market saw support from traders and the market seemed to have awakened itself. Yes, boxed beef prices did close mixed (choice lower, select higher), but processing speeds are continuing to run aggressively and beef demand is expected to be stronger this week. No developments have been noted in the cash cattle market yet this week. Calling the direction in which the market will trade this week is a coin flip as one could argue that packers have protected themselves from having to buy more cattle at higher prices through the last two weeks' aggressive procurement. On the other hand, processing speeds are running faster and packers don't want to be in short supply when beef demand is seasonally the greatest.

June live cattle closed $0.65 higher at $177.62, August live cattle closed $1.10 higher at $175.52 and October live cattle closed $1.05 higher at $178.92. Tuesday's slaughter is estimated at 124,000 head -- steady from a week ago and 4,000 head less than a year ago.

Boxed beef prices closed mixed: choice down $0.27 ($298.49) and select up $2.59 ($292.34) with a movement of 100 loads (58.42 loads of choice, 20.96 loads of select, zero loads of trim and 20.76 loads of ground beef).

WEDNESDAY'S CATTLE CALL: Steady. With packers having bought more than 90,000 head in each of the last two weeks' trade, they'll likely try to hold the cash market steady this week.

FEEDER CATTLE:

The feeder cattle complex continued to trade higher as the corn market's steady to $0.03 lower trade helped comfort traders and lend the complex enough support to rally through the day's end. The market's improved fundamentals throughout the entire cattle complex -- better boxed beef interest, steady throughput and higher cash cattle trade -- have all aided to the live cattle and feeder cattle market's upward quest.

May feeders closed $0.75 higher at $242.15, August feeders closed $1.55 higher at $254.42 and September feeders closed $1.57 higher at $255.45. At Torrington Livestock Auction in Torrington, Wyoming, compared to last week, feeder steers and heifers traded $3 to $8 higher. The start of green grass and timely moisture are keeping the market strong in that region. Feeder cattle supply over 600 pounds was 53%. The CME feeder cattle index May 6: down $0.52, $239.53.

LEAN HOGS:

The lean hog complex rounded out the day on a higher note as the market was well supported by the cash hog sector. With 13,968 head sold in Tuesday's cash market, traders were comforted by the cash market's trade and believed their aggressive buying early in the week due to demand will remain strong. The only hiccup in Tuesday's trade was pork cutout values rounded the day out lower. With the loin dropping $4.33, and the belly plummeting $9.01, the carcass price stood no chance of closing higher. Traders will be closely watching pork cutout values Wednesday and hope to see prices trend higher and signal that consumer support is evident.

June lean hogs closed $0.15 higher at $98.32, July lean hogs closed $0.35 higher at $102.50 and August lean hogs closed $0.62 higher at $101.82. Pork cutouts totaled 304.86 loads with 254.61 loads of pork cuts and 50.24 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: down $2.41, $97.09. Tuesday's slaughter is estimated at 478,000 head -- 4,000 head less than a week ago and 28,000 head more than a year ago. The CME lean hog index May 3: down $0.16, $90.80.

WEDNESDAY'S HOG CALL: Steady to somewhat lower. Given that Tuesday's movement in the cash hog market was far greater than expected, the rest of the week's purchases will likely be fewer.

Tuesday Midday Livestock Market Summary - Higher Boxed Beef Prices Encourage Traders

GENERAL COMMENTS:

The livestock complex is trading higher into Tuesday afternoon as traders are seeing enough fundamental support to justify higher trade. The biggest, exciting factors affecting the market are midday boxed beef prices are higher and the feeder cattle complex is boldly leading the charge to higher trade in the cattle complex. July corn is down 1 1/4 cents per bushel and July soybean meal is down $2.90. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 58.95 points.

LIVE CATTLE:

With the rallying support of the feeder cattle complex and stronger midday boxed beef prices, the live cattle complex is back to trading higher. June live cattle are up $1.60 at $178.57, August live cattle are up $1.77 at $176.17 and October live cattle are up $1.50 at $179.37. It's impressive that the spot June contract is trading above the market's 40-day moving average. If it is able to close at this level, it will be positioned to either close at the market's current resistance point or slightly below. And so long as boxed beef demand remains stable and supportive, traders may deem there's enough support in the complex to challenge that resistance threshold. No business has developed yet in the cash cattle market and it's not likely trade will develop until after Wednesday at some point.

Boxed beef prices are higher: choice up $1.60 ($300.36) and select up $3.16 ($292.91) with a movement of 53 loads (25.99 loads of choice, 11.47 loads of select, zero loads of trim and 15.55 loads of ground beef).

FEEDER CATTLE:

Traders are relieved to see corn prices trading mostly steady as this leaves room and opportunity for the feeder cattle complex to again trade higher. All eyes are currently on boxed beef prices as the industry desperately hopes to see interest increase as this is historically when boxed beef demand is extremely strong. Either way, as the old saying goes, "Feeders are the leaders," and it's been that way in the market's current move -- so seeing most of the feeder cattle contracts trade higher is encouraging to the entire cattle complex. May feeders are up $1.85 at $243.25, August feeders are up $2.52 at $255.40 and September feeders are up $2.52 at $256.40.

LEAN HOGS:

The lean hog complex is trading slightly higher as traders took note of Monday afternoon's higher carcass price and hope consumer support will again be found in this afternoon's closing report. June lean hogs are up $0.17 at $98.35, July lean hogs are up $0.52 at $102.67 and August lean hogs are up $0.42 at $101.62. There have been over 2,000 hogs traded thus far Tuesday and it's likely packer interest will improve as the day trades on.

The projected CME Lean Hog Index for 5/6/2024 is up $0.24 at $91.03 and the actual index for 5/3/2024 is down $0.16 at $90.80. Hog prices on the Daily Direct Morning Hog Report average $94.18, ranging from $86.00 to $95.00 on 2,612 head and a five-day rolling average of $91.62. Pork cutouts total 161.24 loads with 141.99 loads of pork cuts and 19.25 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: down $1.96, $97.54.

Tuesday Morning Livestock Market Update - Strong Product Values May Support Futures

GENERAL COMMENTS:

Traders began the week with caution and concern over demand. Slaughter was higher last week but that provided no guarantee it would continue. Higher cash the previous week was unexpected but gave feedlots hope that cash will be no worse than steady this week. However, packers purchased cattle for deferred delivery again last week which may keep them less aggressive this week even if they maintain a higher slaughter pace. Boxed beef prices were strong Monday with choice up $4.56 and select up $2.10. Feeder cattle showed pressure as buyer resistance has developed with feeder cattle prices showing some weakness.

Hogs were under pressure for the fourth consecutive day with June breaking below and closing below support. Technically, that is not supportive of the market. However, fundamentally the market was supported by strong cash and cutouts. The packers determined pork movement was strong over the weekend and stepped up aggressively with the National Direct Afternoon Hog report increasing $3.03 with the weighted average at $92.41. Along with that, cutouts gained $1.38. That combination should support futures Tuesday as it may reduce some of the concern over slower demand. The packer aggressiveness should carry over to Tuesday as they need to purchase supplies.

	BULL SIDE		BEAR SIDE
1)	Boxed beef showed strong gains Monday, possibly indicating the concern over H5N1 may finally be behind us and consumers want beef.	1)	Cattle traders have not regained their confidence over tight supplies keeping prices higher. Cattle futures are moving erratically in a wide, sideways pattern.
2)	It appears packers are increasing slaughter speeds, which requires them to purchase more cattle. This may keep cash no worse than steady this week.	2)	Packers have purchased a significant amount of cattle for deferred delivery, leaving them less aggressive this week.
3)	Hog futures have fallen on fund liquidation and not on bearish fundamentals. That should have run its course which could trigger short covering.	3)	Traders may not be very anxious to step in to purchase hog futures unless they see further evidence of strong demand.
4)	Strong cash and cutouts Monday should turn traders more aggressive as they buy the break. The concern over demand weakness may have been reduced.	4)	The June hog contract closing below support may keep traders on the defensive. Solid support has yet to be found.

Monday Closing Livestock Market Update - Boxed Beef Prices Close Higher; Contracts Close Lower

GENERAL COMMENTS:

The livestock complex closed lower as traders weren't overly eager to support the livestock sector. However, seeing the rally in the corn market, traders withdrew from the sector. The most interesting development today was the higher close in boxed beef prices.

Hog prices are higher on the Daily Direct Afternoon Hog Report, up $3.03 with a weighted average price of $92.41 on 839 head. July corn is up 8 3/4 cents per bushel and July soybean meal is up $15.40. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 176.59 points.

LIVE CATTLE:

The futures complex may have closed lower, but what's on everyone's mind at the end today is the surprising performance seen in the boxed beef sector. Movement didn't amount to much as only 78 loads were noted, but the $4.56 jump in choice cuts is a market and hopefully, a promising sign that seasonal beef demand is improving.

The futures complex traded lackluster as the corn market's higher note left the entire cattle complex stalemated. June live cattle closed $0.30 higher at $176.97, August live cattle closed $0.15 lower at $174.42 and October live cattle closed $0.17 lower at $177.87.

New showlists appear to be mixed: higher in Texas, lower in Nebraska/Colorado, and sharply lower in Kansas. If boxed beef prices trend higher throughout the week, the cash cattle market could potentially see feedlot managers aiming to trade cattle higher again this week. Monday's slaughter is estimated at 120,000 head -- 7,000 head more than a week ago and 4,000 head less than a year ago.

Last week Northern dressed cattle traded for mostly $295 which is $1 higher than the previous week's weighted average. Southern live cattle waited to trade until Friday, but the wait was worth it as most live cattle in the South traded for $184, $2 higher than the previous week's weighted average. Last week's negotiated cash cattle trade totaled 92,693 head. Of that, 63% (58,165 head) were committed to the nearby delivery, while the remaining 37% (34,528 head) were committed to the deferred delivery.

Boxed beef prices closed higher: choice up $4.56 ($298.76) and select up $2.10 ($289.75) with a movement of 78 loads (47.46 loads of choice, 15.61 loads of select, zero loads of trim and 14.61 loads of ground beef).

TUESDAY'S CATTLE CALL: Higher. I believe feedlots will again price cattle higher, and depending on how short-bought packers are, they could end up paying more for cattle again this week as they're running faster chain speeds. On the other hand, with packers buying aggressively over the last two weeks, they may have secured enough cattle so they don't chase this week's cash market as aggressively.

FEEDER CATTLE:

The feeder cattle complex wasn't able to accomplish much today as the corn market's $0.07 to $0.10 rally grabbed traders' attention and shook any support the market had far away. May feeders closed $1.90 lower at $241.40, August feeders closed $1.87 lower at $252.87 and September feeders closed $1.90 lower at $253.87. Boxed beef prices were noticeably higher which could help encourage the cattle market, but corn prices will need to trade steady/somewhat lower before feeders trade higher again.

At Oklahoma National Stockyards in Oklahoma City, compared to last week and at their midsession point, feeder steers were trading steady to $3 lower and feeder heifers were trading unevenly steady. There was only a light test done on steer and heifer calves but a lower undertone was noted. Feeder cattle supply over 600 pounds was 85%. The CME feeder cattle index May 3: down $0.98, $242.39.

LEAN HOGS:

Hog prices weren't able to grow stronger ahead of the day's close even though afternoon pork cutout values did close higher. June lean hogs closed $0.77 lower at $98.17, July lean hogs closed $0.70 lower at $102.15 and August lean hogs closed $0.52 lower at $101.20. It was helpful for the afternoon's carcass price that the belly closed $4.01 higher, the loin closed $3.82 higher and the rib closed $1.74 higher.

If the market continues to see steady demand this week, traders may the complex higher, especially if the week's export report is supportive and Friday's WASDE report is promising in terms of demand over the summer.

Pork cutouts total 305.37 loads with 259.60 loads of pork cuts and 45.77 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: up $1.38, $99.50. Monday's slaughter is estimated at 481,000 head -- 5,000 head more than a week ago and 15,000 head more than a year ago. The CME lean hog index May 2: up $0.04, $90.96.

TUESDAY'S HOG CALL: Steady/somewhat lower. Given that Monday's market saw little to no trade as only 839 head traded in the cash market, Tuesday's market will likely see a bigger volume traded but prices may be steady to somewhat lower.

Monday Midday Livestock Market Summary - Weaker Tones Summarize the Complex's Start to the New Week

GENERAL COMMENTS:

The livestock complex is trading lower into Monday's noon hour as the market is merely tapping its foot, waiting to see what consumers do this week. Friday's WASDE report will be highly sought after by both hog producers and cattle enthusiasts as the industry's demand outlook is under question. June live cattle are up $0.20 at $176.875, August feeder cattle are down July corn is up 8 1/4 cents per bushel and July soybean meal is up $12.50. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 26.76 points.

LIVE CATTLE:

The live cattle complex may be trending lower at the week's start -- but there are some interesting strong fundamentals at play in the market already this week. To start, I do find it encouraging that boxed beef prices are higher, even though the midday movement is thin. In a normal year, during this time we'd expect to see the choice/select spread widen as consumers begin to pick up better cuts for their grilling occasions. And secondly, I find it extremely encouraging that last week's negotiated cash cattle trade totaled 92,693 head. This is incredibly impressive given that over 90,000 head traded the week before. Packers are running more aggressive slaughter speeds which means they need more cattle and thankfully feedlots have been able to sell their showlists for higher prices over the last two weeks. June live cattle are up $0.05 at $176.75, August live cattle are down $0.25 at $174.37 and October live cattle are down $0.17 at $177.87.

Last week Northern dressed cattle traded for mostly $295 which is $1.00 higher than the previous week's weighted average. Southern live cattle waited to trade until Friday, but the wait was worth the time as most live cattle in the South traded for $184 which is $2.00 higher than the previous week's weighted average. Last week's negotiated cash cattle trade totaled 92,693 head. Of that, 63% (58,165 head) were committed to the nearby delivery, while the remaining 37% (34,528 head) were committed to the deferred delivery.

Boxed beef prices are higher: choice up $3.87 ($298.07) and select up $1.39 ($289.04) with a movement of 37 loads (22.16 loads of choice, 7.24 loads of select, zero loads of trim and 7.99 loads of ground beef).

FEEDER CATTLE:

With corn prices trending $0.07 to $0.10 higher in the nearby contracts, the feeder cattle market is rocked back on its heels as the day approaches noon. The feeder cattle complex has been the driving force behind the cattle market's upside in this recent move, so until the feeder cattle market finds some footing in this week's trade, or unless boxed beef sales strengthen quickly, weaker tones may be the theme of both the live cattle and feeder cattle contracts. May feeders are down $1.40 at $241.90, August feeders are down $1.57 at $253.20 and September feeders are down $1.42 at $254.35.

LEAN HOGS:

The lean hog complex is continuing to trade lower as the market is in dire need of consistent consumer support. Yes, midday pork cutout values may be up, but with the belly up $9.75 alone, the carcass price is liable to see some volatility as the belly has been wishy-washy. Friday's WASDE report is going to be highly sought after by hog producers as the report could give some direction to the market in the short term as traders are beginning to wonder if summer-time demand is going to amount to much. June lean hogs are down $0.92 at $98.02, July lean hogs are down $0.77 at $102.07 and August lean hogs are down $0.50 at $101.22.

The projected lean hog index is delayed from the source. Hog prices are higher on the Daily Direct Morning Hog Report, up $1.10 with a weighted average price of $90.53, ranging from $87.50 to $95.00 on 1,538 head and a five-day rolling average of $90.69. Pork cutouts total 158.87 loads with 138.83 loads of pork cuts and 20.04 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: up $2.47, $100.59.

Monday Morning Livestock Market Update - Mixed Trading Activity Expected

GENERAL COMMENTS:

Cash cattle traded higher for the week with Southern cattle gaining $2.00 and Northern cattle increasing $1.00. June live cattle futures are at a discount to cash as traders remain concerned over the level of demand through May and June. Cattle futures did not rebound as much as anticipated once it was confirmed the H5N1 virus was not found in ground beef. It is going to take solid demand to turn the trend back up. That was lacking again in boxed beef with choice up by $1.30 and select down $0.33. The Commitments of Traders report showed funds reducing their net long live cattle positions by 640 contracts to a current net-long position of 39,473 futures contracts. Funds were net sellers of 172 contracts, reducing their net-long positions in feeder cattle to 4,629 contracts.

Lean hogs closed the week on a very negative note. It is not that cash and cutouts fell apart during the week, but spillover pressure from cattle and the concern over summer demand cast a cloud over the market. Packers were not aggressive on Friday as much of their buying for the week was finished. The National Direct Afternoon Hog report showed cash down $2.40, moving the weighted average to $89.38. Cutouts gained $0.24 but it was not enough to stem the tide. Liquidation generally runs its course in three days, which may result in higher trade early this week. The Commitments of Traders report showed funds actively liquidating futures contracts. They were net sellers of 5,119 futures contracts, bringing their net-long position to 86,883 contacts.

	BULL SIDE		BEAR SIDE
1)	August and later live cattle contracts have chart gaps above the market that need to be filled.	1)	Cattle saw quite a bit of volatility last week but futures closed lower than the previous week. The market is struggling to find support.
2)	June cattle futures are holding a discount to cash, which may be reduced as cash cattle increased last week and at least steady cash is anticipated this week.	2)	Feeder cattle showed some price weakness at auctions last week. Buyers may not feel as confident about live cattle prices as the year progresses.
3)	Hog futures have finished three days of liquidation with the market ready for a bounce. Fund liquidation generally lasts about three days.	3)	Packers will be apprehensive to begin the week and wait to see the level of pork demand over the weekend.
4)	Packers continue to run a strong slaughter pace as margins are good and current demand is strong.	4)	Traders may be cautious over buying hog futures aggressively due to the recent weakness and little sign of technical support.

Friday Closing Livestock Market Update - Cash Cattle Trade $1.00 to $2.00 Higher

GENERAL COMMENTS:

It was a mixed day for the livestock complex as the cattle contracts closed mostly higher amid stronger cash cattle sales. The lean hog complex didn't see much support as traders were apprehensive of overly supporting the market ahead of the weekend. Hog prices closed lower on the Daily Direct Afternoon Hog Report, down $2.40 with a weighted average price of $89.38 on 1,990 head. July corn is up 1/2 cent per bushel and July soybean meal is up $7.30. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 454.71 points.

From Friday-to-Friday livestock futures scored the following changes: June live cattle down $1.90, August live cattle down $2.20; May feeder cattle down $5.40, August feeder cattle down $5.80; June lean hogs down $3.52, July lean hogs down $3.10; May corn up $0.07, July corn up $0.10.

LIVE CATTLE:

The live cattle complex closed mostly higher although the spot June contract did round out the day lower. But the market's biggest win of the week was the USDA's announcement that no traces of H5N1 were found in the ground beef samples they tested, and that the cash cattle market traded cattle higher again this week. Southern live cattle waited to trade until Friday, but the wait was worth the time as Southern cattle traded at mostly $184 which is $2.00 higher than last week's weighted average. Northern dressed cattle traded for mostly $296 which is $1.00 higher than last week's weighted average. Packers grudgingly paid more money for the cattle they needed as they don't want to be in short supply heading into May. June live cattle closed $0.12 lower at $176.67, August live cattle closed $0.62 higher at $174.57 and October live cattle closed $0.67 higher at $178.05.

Friday's slaughter is estimated at 119,000 head -- 6,000 head more than a week ago and 2,000 head more than a year ago. Saturday's slaughter is projected to be around 20,000 head. The week's total slaughter is estimated at 619,000 head -- 6,000 head more than a week ago and 1,000 head less than a year ago.

Boxed beef prices closed mixed: choice up $1.30 ($294.20) and select down $0.33 ($287.65) with a movement of 97 loads (52.61 loads of choice, 16.01 loads of select, 8.22 loads of trim and 20.05 loads of ground beef).

MONDAY'S CATTLE CALL: Steady. Packers aren't going to willingly pay any more for cattle than they absolutely have to.

FEEDER CATTLE:

The nearby feeder cattle contracts closed slightly lower but thankfully the deferred months still closed higher. The market isn't lacking fundamental support from buyers, its downfall has been the continued pressure from lingering bird flu news and technical hesitancy from traders. But now with the USDA confirming that none of the ground beef samples that they tested contained traces of avian influenza, the market should be able to breathe a little easier. I'm especially eager to see how the big summertime sales fare, which are scheduled for the middle of June. May feeders closed $0.30 lower at $243.30, August feeders are down $0.47 at $254.75 and September feeders closed $0.20 lower at $255.77. The Oklahoma Weekly Cattle Auction Summary shared that compared to last week and throughout the entire state feeder steers sold $3.00 to $6.00 lower and feeder heifers under 650 pounds sold steady. Heifers over 650 pounds sold $2.00 to $5.00 lower. Slaughter cows traded $2.00 higher and slaughter bulls sold $2.00 higher as well. Feeder cattle supply over 600 pounds was 83%. The CME feeder cattle index 5/2/2024: not available at this time.

LEAN HOGS:

Friday's trade was a flop for the lean hog complex as traders simply weren't willing to support the market ahead of the weekend. Traders desperately wanting to see promise that consumer demand would be sufficient over the summer and even though this afternoon's carcass price closed higher, that wasn't enough to soothe their concerns. Next Friday the market is scheduled to see the news WASDE report which could unveil some of those questions for us. June lean hogs closed $0.97 lower at $98.95, July lean hogs closed $0.67 lower at $102.85, and August lean hogs closed $0.47 lower at $101.72. Pork cutouts totaled 262.08 loads with 234.47 loads of pork cuts and 27.62 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: up $0.24, $98.12. Friday's slaughter is estimated at 468,000 head -- 29,000 head more than a week ago and 13,000 head more than a year ago. Saturday's slaughter is projected to be around 19,000 head. The CME lean hog index 5/1/2024: down $0.32, $90.92.

MONDAY'S HOG CALL: Lower. Packers won't likely support Monday's cash market much until they gain a sense of what next week's demand is going to amount to.

Friday Midday Livestock Market Summary - Southern Feedlots Hold Out for More Money

GENERAL COMMENTS:

Both the live cattle and feeder cattle markets are trading higher as the cash cattle market's higher trend is encouraging to the entire cattle complex. Southern cattle have yet to trade, but feedlots seem determined to get more money again this week. July corn is down 1 cent per bushel and July soybean meal is up $3.30. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 436.46 points.

LIVE CATTLE:

With cash cattle prices trending higher and midday boxed beef prices higher -- it wasn't hard for traders to decide to trade the live cattle contracts higher. The Southern Plains still hasn't seen any cattle trade, but bids are currently being offered. Bids of $184 are currently being offered in both Texas and Kansas, but with feedlots firm in their $186 asking price -- packers are going to need to get more aggressive in order to get any cattle bought. There were some cattle traded on Thursday in the North at $295, which is $1.00 higher than last week's weighted average, but now Northern feedlots have upped their asking price to $296. June live cattle are up $0.20 at $177.00, August live cattle are up $0.87 at $174.82 and October live cattle are up $1.00 at $178.37.

Boxed beef prices are higher: choice up $2.02 ($294.92) and select up $0.51 ($288.49) with a movement of 59 loads (28.04 loads of choice, 10.64 loads of select, 7.51 loads of trim and 12.79 loads of ground beef).

FEEDER CATTLE:

With the cash cattle market again seeing higher prices -- the feeder cattle complex is trading mostly higher into Friday's afternoon. With the big summertime videos scheduled to begin in about six weeks, feeders find it very encouraging that cash cattle prices are trending higher which could trickle down and support upcoming feeder cattle sales. May feeders are up $0.15 at $243.75, August feeders are down $0.02 at $255.20 and September feeders are up $0.27 at $256.25.

LEAN HOGS:

The lean hog complex is once again trading lower as the market can't seem to gain momentum. Yes, midday pork cutout values are higher, but traders seem unwilling to support the complex ahead of the week's close. Next Friday the market will receive the latest WASDE report which could help shine light onto the lean hog market's immediate direction as both production and export forecasts will be shared for the upcoming months. June lean hogs are down $0.70 at $99.22, July lean hogs are down $0.50 at $103.05 and August lean hogs are down $0.42 at $101.77.

The projected lean hog index for 5/2/2024 is up $0.04 at $90.96, and the actual index for 5/1/2024 is up $0.32 at $90.92. Hog prices are higher on the Daily Direct Morning Hog Report, up $1.10 with a weighted average price of $90.53, ranging from $87.50 to $95.00 on 1,538 head and a five-day rolling average of $90.69. Pork cutouts totaled 159.07 loads with 143.98 loads of pork cuts and 15.09 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: up $1.49, $99.37.

Friday Morning Livestock Market Update - Further Strength Likely in Cattle

GENERAL COMMENTS:

Cattle had a strong open and higher trade throughout Thursday. Initial support came from good beef exports totaling 22,500 metric tons (mt), which was a marketing year high. Then there was the announcement that no avian flu matter was found in ground beef that had been tested. On top of that, cash cattle began trading $1.00 to $2.00 higher. What was there not to like about the fundamental news? Traders supported the market aggressively, but maybe not as aggressively as one would have thought based on not finding traces of avian flu in ground beef. There remains the matter of consumer perception and whether this will put the concern of the avian flu in beef behind us. It certainly is a step in the right direction. The weakness of boxed beef remains a concern with choice down $0.64 and select down $0.09.

Hog traders were uncertain of what to do with the market Thursday. Pork export sales were good at 33,600 mt, but that was unable to trigger aggressive buying. The National Direct Afternoon Hog report showed cash down $0.24 as packers seem to have purchased the hogs needed for the week. However, possibly they could be more aggressive Friday if they need to make some final purchases for the week. This has happened numerous times. Cutouts were under pressure with values down $0.11. Futures may see strength Friday ahead of the weekend as traders may liquidate recent short positions.

	BULL SIDE		BEAR SIDE
1)	No traces of avian flu were found in samples of ground beef that were tested, taking that bearishness off the table for now.	1)	It was somewhat disappointing that cattle futures did not rally more than they did based on the positive news of the ground beef testing negative for bird flu.
2)	Live cattle futures have chart gaps above the market that may be filled Friday or at least soon. Higher cash cattle may provide the support to accomplish it.	2)	Boxed beef continues to struggle, indicating weakness in demand. This may limit upside price potential.
3)	Hog traders may liquidate their short positions before the weekend as good exports and the recent decline may trigger short covering.	3)	The packers may not be looking for hogs aggressively anymore this week, which may mean lower cash.
4)	The packers maintain a strong slaughter pace and hog weights only increased by 0.1 pound from the previous week.	4)	Hog weights averaged 287.1 pounds last week, up 1.2 pounds from a year ago.

Thursday Closing Livestock Market Update - USDA's Negative Finding of H5N1 in Ground Beef Sends the Cattle Contracts Sharply Higher

GENERAL COMMENTS:

The cattle complex saw the biggest support throughout Thursday's complex as the USDA's announcement about finding no traces of avian influenza in ground beef was a major victory for the industry. Hog prices closed lower on the Daily Direct Afternoon Hog Report, down $0.24 with a weighted average price of $91.78 on 2,378 head. July corn is up 9 cents per bushel and July soybean meal is up $15.90. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 322.37 points.

Thursday's export report shared that beef net sales of 22,500 mt for 2024 -- a marketing year high -- were up 48% from the previous week and 38% from the prior 4-week average. The three largest buyers were South Korea (9,600 mt), Japan (5,200 mt) and Taiwan (2,500 mt). Pork net sales of 33,600 mt for 2024 were up 17% from the previous week and 6% from the previous 4-week average. The three primary buyers were Mexico (21,600 mt), Japan (4,200 mt) and Canada (1,300 mt).

LIVE CATTLE:

The live cattle complex finally caught a break and capitalized on the day's strength as the USDA announced that all 30 samples of ground beef that they tested for the bird flu came back negative! 

Upon receiving this news and the marketing year high for beef exports -- traders had all the support in Thursday's market that they could have ever hoped for. June live cattle closed $2.95 higher at $176.80, August live cattle closed $2.85 higher at $173.95 and October live cattle closed $2.52 higher at $177.37. And to boot, the cash cattle market traded cattle higher again this week. Some light trade was reported in the North at $186 live and $295 to $296 dressed which is $1.00 to $2.00 higher than last week's weighted average. The Southern plains didn't see much movement as packers were offering $182 but feedlot's asking prices were firm at $185 to $186. More trade will likely develop on Friday. 

Thursday's slaughter is estimated at 120,000 head -- 5,000 head less than a week ago and steady with a year ago.

Boxed beef prices closed lower: choice down $0.64 ($292.90) and select down $0.09 ($287.98) with a movement of 164 loads (107.18 loads of choice, 29.61 loads of select, 6.70 loads of trim and 20.89 loads of ground beef).

FRIDAY'S CATTLE CALL: Steady with the week's higher trend. Given that the North has been able to trade cattle higher again this week -- it's likely that the Southern Plains will sell cattle for at least steady money, if not $1.00 higher.

FEEDER CATTLE:

With ample support seen in the live cattle complex, the feeder cattle market had no issue rounding out Thursday's trade higher as the market's technical/outside pressures were what was holding the market back. May feeders closed $2.17 higher at $243.60, August feeders closed $3.47 higher at $255.22 and September feeders closed $3.37 higher at $255.97. Feeder cattle sales in the countryside continue to perform well, but the bigger steers that will be ready to market mid-summer are seeing a little weaker tone as buyers know that marketing cattle during the dog days of summer is always a challenge. At Mobridge Livestock Exchange in Mobridge, South Dakota compared to last week steers weighing 850 to 899 pounds sold $3.00 to $4.00 higher but the steers weighing 900 to 999 pounds sold $5.00 to $10.00 lower. Feeder cattle supply over 600 pounds was 100%. The CME feeder cattle index 5/1/2024: down $3.69, $243.37.

LEAN HOGS:

Outside of the spot June and July 2024 contracts, the lean hog complex was able to close mostly higher. Summer demand remains in question for the lean hog complex and with pork cutout values being volatile as of late, traders are uneasy about trading the nearby contracts. Thankfully they kept their concerns isolated to just the nearby contracts, however, and continued to support the rest of the complex as the deferred contracts all closed higher. It was surprising to note that packers again bought modestly in today's cash market which I didn't expect given that they bought aggressively on Tuesday and Wednesday. But with processing running more aggressively than compared to a year ago -- the need for more hogs continues. June lean hogs closed $0.50 lower at $99.92, July lean hogs closed $0.10 lower at $103.52 and August lean hogs closed $0.05 higher at $102.20. Pork cutouts totaled 201.01 loads with 177.98 loads of pork cuts and 23.03 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: down $0.11, $97.88. Thursday's slaughter is estimated at 481,000 head -- 4,000 head less than a week ago and 10,000 head more than a year ago. The CME lean hog index 4/30/2024: up $0.34, $90.60.

FRIDAY'S HOG CALL: Lower. It's unlikely that packers will buy very many hogs in Friday's market as they have bought aggressively earlier this week.

Thursday Midday Livestock Market Summary - Cattle Rally Upon No Bird Flu Traces Found in Ground Beef

GENERAL COMMENTS:

The early part of the week may have been pressured, but the cattle complex is back to rallying as traders can breathe easy after the USDA announced that they found no traces of avian influenza in the ground beef samples they look. July corn is up 5 cents per bushel and July soybean meal is up $15.40. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 126.79 points.

Thursday's export report shared that beef net sales of 22,500 mt for 2024 -- a marketing year high -- were up 48% from the previous week and 38% from the prior 4-week average. The three largest buyers were South Korea (9,600 mt), Japan (5,200 mt) and Taiwan (2,500 mt). Pork net sales of 33,600 mt for 2024 were up 17% from the previous week and 6% from the previous 4-week average. The three primary buyers were Mexico (21,600 mt), Japan (4,200 mt) and Canada (1,300 mt).

LIVE CATTLE:

The USDA's statement that all 30 samples taken of ground beef and tested for avian influenza all came back negative for the virus is the driving force as to why the live cattle complex is trading higher into Thursday's noon hour. The official USDA/FSIS statement can be assessed here:

It was also encouraging to note that in this morning's export report, beef saw a marketing year high at 22,500 metric tons sold. With beef demand in question amid our stressed economics, seeing any sort of positive beef interest is warmly welcomed. June live cattle are up $3.17 at $177.02, August live cattle are up $2.82 at $173.92 and October live cattle are up $2.62 at $177.52. There's also been good news reported in the cash cattle complex as Northern dressed cattle are beginning to trade for $295 to $296, which is $1.00 to $2.00 higher than last week's weighted average. No cattle have sold yet in the South, but asking prices are firm there at $185 to $186. More trade will likely develop throughout the day.

Boxed beef prices are mixed: choice down $0.20 ($293.34) and select up $0.47 ($288.54) with a movement of 108 loads (73.25 loads of choice, 15.15 loads of select, 4.30 loads of trim and 14.94 loads of ground beef).

FEEDER CATTLE:

With there being ample support currently in the live cattle market, feeders are also trading higher as the market's biggest limiting factor has been technical/outside pressure and uneasiness in the live cattle complex. May feeders are up $3.00 at $244.45, August feeders are up $4.05 at $255.77 and September feeders are up $3.80 at $256.40. The market is still trading below its 100-day moving average, but stronger tones are a nice turnaround from the market's weaker tone seen earlier this week.

LEAN HOGS:

The lean hog complex continues to trade lower although the market saw a relatively support export sales report. But even so, the nearby contracts continue to trade lower as traders are worried about stable demand domestically. Daily pork cutout values have been especially volatile as the belly continues to see ginormous daily swings. June lean hogs are down $0.95 at $99.47, July lean hogs are down $0.45 at $103.17 and August lean hogs are down $0.02 at $102.12.

The projected lean hog index for 5/1/2024 is up $0.32 at $90.92, and the actual index for 4/30/2024 is up $0.34 at $90.60. Hog prices are lower on the Daily Direct Morning Hog Report, down $1.63 with a weighted average price of $89.43, ranging from $88.00 to $93.00 on 1,192 head and a five-day rolling average of $90.71. Pork cutouts total 93.47 loads with 84.97 loads of pork cuts and 8.49 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: up $1.66, $99.65.

Thursday Morning Livestock Market Update - Markets May See Further Liquidation

GENERAL COMMENTS:

Market fundamentals did not mean anything Wednesday as selling ran rampant due to numerous stories about concerns of the avian flu virus in milk and possibly meat. No virus has been discovered in meat at this time, but some of the articles fueled trader anxiety. Fund traders had been holding significant long positions in the cattle markets and they may liquidate those positions. One concern is the export market may fall off if other countries decide to take precautions for even a limited time. Packers are not expected to be aggressive this week with lower cash trade anticipated. Boxed beef prices were lower with choice down $0.83 and select down $1.88. The one positive action Wednesday was chart gaps remaining in later futures contracts were closed.

The pressure on cattle futures spilled over into hog futures. There had been some concern about summer demand already, but this heightened that concern about the possibility of consumers reducing consumption of all red meat. Nothing has been found in pork, but perception may drive the market. Cash held up well Wednesday with the Daily Direct Afternoon report showing a loss of only $0.01. However, cutouts were lower, posting a decline of $0.77. The packers are not expected to be aggressive Thursday. Hopefully, export sales will show improvement over the past two weeks.

	BULL SIDE		BEAR SIDE
1)	All of the remaining chart gaps were filled in the cattle markets, which takes that technical aspect off the table.	1)	The more negative news that circulates about the avian flu and the uncertainty it leaves in the minds of consumers, the more the selling pressure may continue.
2)	There has been no discovery of the avian flu virus in beef. If none is found through further testing, the market could rebound substantially.	2)	Cattle futures may retest support at the previous low before liquidation subsides.
3)	So far, pork has not even been discussed in connection with the avian flu virus. Demand has been good and may remain that way and may even benefit.	3)	The packers may not be very aggressive with cash hogs Thursday as they may have already purchased most of their weekly needs.
4)	The pressure on hog futures Wednesday seemed to be from the spillover selling from cattle and not hog market fundamentals.	4)	Hog futures broke through technical support Wednesday which could trigger further technical selling Thursday.

Wednesday Closing Livestock Market Update - Pressure Galore on the Complex

GENERAL COMMENTS:

It was a rough day throughout the livestock complex as the market saw pressure abound technically as fundamental support continues to lag. No substantial cash cattle trade has developed yet this week, but packer interest is expected to increase by Thursday. Hog prices closed lower on the Daily Direct Afternoon Hog Report, down $0.01 with a weighted average price of $92.02 on 10,684 head. July corn is up 4 cents per bushel and July soybean meal is down $2.90. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 87.37 points.

LIVE CATTLE:

Wish all it may want, but the live cattle complex is struggling to find support in this market. Between sluggish boxed beef demand, and the continued nervousness of traders amid more bird flu stories and the USDA's testing of ground beef for traces of the virus, the complex is on edge and trading lower. June live cattle closed $1.12 lower at $173.85, August live cattle closed $2.00 lower at $171.10 and October live cattle closed $2.20 lower at $174.85. No cash cattle trade developed throughout the day, but it's assumed that the week's trend will be steady at best. Asking prices remain firm in the South at $185 to $186 but have not yet been established in the North. Packer demand will likely improve on Thursday, but trade could be delayed until Friday potentially. 

Wednesday's slaughter is estimated at 123,000 head -- 2,000 head less than a week ago and 1,000 head less than a year ago.

Boxed beef prices closed lower: choice down $0.83 ($293.54) and select down $1.88 ($288.07) with a movement of 186 loads (137.56 loads of choice, 22.11 loads of select, 3.43 loads of trim and 23.20 loads of ground beef).

THURSDAY'S CATTLE CALL: Steady. With the market struggling all around, boxed beef prices will likely be steady at best.

FEEDER CATTLE:

The feeder cattle complex saw the biggest deterioration throughout Wednesday's market as traders noted the continued decline in the live cattle complex and watched corn prices trading mildly higher. More than anything, the uncertain, uneasy tone lingering throughout the cattle complex thanks to what seems like never-ending news surrounding the bird flu has the cattle contracts retreating -- and in an aggressive manner. May feeders closed $3.15 lower at $241.42, August feeders closed $3.75 lower at $251.75 and September feeders closed $3.87 lower at $252.60. At Winter Livestock Auction in La Junta, Colorado compared to last week there were too few feeder steers sold to accurately find a market trend, but feeder heifers sold $5.00 to $9.00 higher. Slaughter cows sold unevenly steady but slaughter bulls traded $5.00 higher. Feeder cattle supply over 600 pounds was 39%. The CME feeder cattle index 4/30/2024: up $0.03, $247.06.

LEAN HOGS:

The lean hog complex was the livestock complex's only hope of higher trade and even its market closed lower. June lean hogs closed $2.05 lower at $100.42, July lean hogs closed $1.80 lower at $103.62 and August lean hogs closed $1.25 lower at $102.15. The spot June hog contract saw the biggest decline in the hog complex as trader's $2.05 decline pushed the market close to pressuring long-term support planes. Part of the market's pressure stemmed from another day of lower pork cutout values, which exacerbates the market's bigger question of what will summer demand amount to. The carcass price's lower close was mostly due to the fact that the belly declined $10.61 -- otherwise the individual cuts closed on both sides of steady. Pork cutouts totaled 266.40 loads with 233.54 loads of pork cuts and 32.86 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: down $0.77, $97.99. Wednesday's slaughter is estimated at 480,000 head -- 3,000 head less than a week ago and 13,000 head more than a year ago. The CME lean hog index 4/29/2024: down $0.10, $90.26.

THURSDAY'S HOG CALL: Lower. Given that packers have actively bought over the last two days, it's likely that Thursday's cash market will see less interest.

Wednesday Midday Livestock Market Summary - Cautionary Tones Keep Complex Trading Mostly Lower

GENERAL COMMENTS:

The livestock complex is trading mostly lower into Wednesday's noon hour as traders lack substantial support from the market's fundamentals to justify trading contracts higher. Still, no cash cattle trade has developed, and at this point, it's looking like the week's trade will be delayed until Thursday or Friday. July corn is up 1 cent per bushel and July soybean meal is down $4.40. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 119.37 points.

LIVE CATTLE:

Thankfully the cattle complex isn't seeing as severe a descent as the market did throughout Tuesday's trade, but the vast majority of the live cattle contracts are still trading lower. The spot June and the nearby August 2024 contracts are the only two months trading higher -- and only modestly so. June live cattle are up $0.77 at $175.80, August live cattle are up $0.17 at $173.27 and October live cattle are steady at $177.05. The slight support in the nearby contracts is likely just an attempt to recover some position as traders dumped the market dramatically Tuesday after hearing USDA would begin testing ground beef for avian influenza. No cash cattle trade has developed at this point in the week, and without much packer interest noted yet in the market, the week's trade will likely be delayed until Thursday or later. Asking prices are noted in the South at $185 to $186 but remain unestablished in the North.

Boxed beef prices are lower: choice down $0.45 ($293.92) and select down $1.01 ($288.94) with a movement of 90 loads (59.57 loads of choice, 10.72 loads of select, 3.43 loads of trim and 16.11 loads of ground beef).

FEEDER CATTLE:

With boxed beef prices lower and the live cattle complex trading mostly lower, the feeder cattle complex is heading into Wednesday's noon hour fully lower. May feeders are down $1.27 at $243.30, August feeder cattle are down $1 at $254.40 and September feeders are down $1.02 at $255.55. Even though the futures complex was pressured on Tuesday, sales in the countryside were well supported. We are roughly six weeks away from the first big video sales of the year where feeder cattle and buyer confidence in the 2024 market will be tested.

LEAN HOGS:

The lean hog complex at Wednesday's start appeared as though the market had adequate support to trade higher, but that idea quickly failed. June lean hogs are down $1.85 at $100.62, July lean hogs are down $1.47 at $103.95 and August lean hogs are down $1.02 at $102.37. Pork cutout values are down slightly, and given that the belly is the leading cause of why the carcass price is lower, it's likely afternoon's carcass price could be weaker as well. Traders are hoping for a fruitful export report on Thursday morning, but time will only tell.

The projected lean hog index for April 30 is up $0.34 at $90.60, and the actual index for April 29 is down $0.10 at $90.26. Hog prices are higher on the Daily Direct Morning Hog Report, up $0.34 with a weighted average price of $91.06, ranging from $83.36 to $95 on 4,372 head and a five-day rolling average of $90.63. Pork cutouts total 155.96 loads with 145.35 loads of pork cuts and 10.61 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: down $0.38, $98.38.

Wednesday Morning Livestock Market Update - Cattle Futures May See Further Pressure From Uncertainty

GENERAL COMMENTS:

The cattle market has been reactive to any information that has developed over the discovery of the H5P1 avian flu virus in dairy cattle. The uncertainty of whether it would impact beef cattle has been hanging over the market. USDA announced it would test ground beef in more highly concentrated dairy areas to see whether the H5N1 virus matter is present. This increased the anxiety of traders and triggered liquidation. There has been no announcement of any test results but the "what if" is all it took to increase the selling. Feedlots may want to move cattle more aggressively this week but may find packers will not be aggressive to purchase. Boxed beef prices did not provide any support with choice down $3.16 and select down $0.26.

Hogs closed mixed as traders tried to assess the impact of the avian flu virus on beef consumption. It is unclear if pork consumption could increase if evidence of avian flu is found in ground beef. It is too early to tell, leaving traders cautious. The packers were aggressive on Tuesday, purchasing a large amount of hogs at higher prices. The National Direct Afternoon Hog report showed cash up $2.40, moving the weighted average price to $92.03. The packers may not be as aggressive Wednesday but could remain somewhat aggressive looking for hogs. Pork cutouts were $0.24 lower which may keep a lid on price potential.

	BULL SIDE		BEAR SIDE
1)	If the testing of ground beef for avian flu is negative, the cattle market could rally sharply.	1)	As long as there is uncertainty over avian flu in cattle, futures may remain under pressure with limited upside potential.
2)	Live cattle futures gapped lower on the open and likely will fill the gap over time. The pressure on futures was reactionary and not based on solid facts.	2)	Cash cattle are expected to trade lower this week as packers will not be aggressive and feedlots may want to move cattle.
3)	Hog futures held support and with strong cash Tuesday; traders could be more aggressive buyers Wednesday.	3)	So far, hog futures have not been able to rebound after the liquidation last week. Traders remain cautious over pork demand.
4)	Packers continue to run aggressive chain speeds as strong demand needs to be satisfied. This may increase if pork demand benefits from the uncertainty in beef.	4)	The packers may not be as aggressive Wednesday as they purchased many hogs Tuesday. This may leave them in a better bargaining position.

Tuesday Closing Livestock Market Update - USDA's Testing of Ground Beef for Avian Influenza Panicked the Cattle Complex

GENERAL COMMENTS:

USDA's announcement that their now testing ground beef for traces of avian influenza did not sit well with the cattle complex and ultimately led traders to dump both the live cattle and feeder cattle contracts lower by Tuesday's end. Hog prices closed higher on the Daily Direct Afternoon Hog Report, up $2.40 with a weighted average price of $92.03 on 6,186 head. July corn is down 2 1/2 cents per bushel and July soybean meal is down $2.40. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 570.17 points.

LIVE CATTLE:

As a precautionary measure, the USDA is now in the beginning stages of testing ground beef for the H5N1 virus -- which is what panicked the cattle complex and sent both the live cattle and feeder cattle markets tumbling lower throughout Tuesday's trade. Although the USDA has publicly stated that they believe the meat supply is safe, the announcement still rattled traders and consequently led to the market's sharply lower close. Chris Clayton, DTN's Ag Policy Editor wrote on the matter which can be accessed here:

June live cattle closed $2.17 lower at $174.97, August live cattle closed $2.57 lower at $173.10 and October live cattle closed $2.72 lower at $177.05. There were a few cattle traded in the North as today's sharply lower pressured some feedlots into marketing their cattle early, but all in all the cash cattle market still hasn't seen any substantial trade develop and won't likely until after Wednesday sometime. Asking prices are noted in the South at $186 but have yet to be established in the North. Lousy boxed beef interest continues to be problematic for the market especially given that right now has historically been the market's prime time in selling beef ahead of early summer cookouts. 

Tuesday's slaughter is estimated at 124,000 head -- 1,000 head less than a week ago and 3,000 head less than a year ago.

Boxed beef prices closed lower: choice down $3.16 ($294.37) and select down $0.26 ($289.95) with a movement of 110 loads (69.13 loads of choice, 21.71 loads of select, zero loads of trim and 19.01 loads of ground beef).

WEDNESDAY'S CATTLE CALL: Lower. Given the sharp selloff in today's futures complex, packers will likely be able to get cattle bought for cheaper money this week.

FEEDER CATTLE:

The bird flu once again dominated the cattle complex and was the Achilles heel of the market's demise through Tuesday's trade. May feeder cattle closed $3.45 lower at $244.57, August feeders closed $4.12 lower at $255.50 and September feeders closed $4.25 lower at $256.47. Demand was still strong and stable in the countryside, but from a technical standpoint, the complex stood little chance of closing higher as fear again consumed traders' minds. At Joplin Regional Stockyards in Carthage, Missouri compared to last week feeder steers sold $2.00 to $5.00 higher with five weight steers selling for as much as $13.00 higher. Feeder heifers sold from $2.00 lower to $4.00 higher. Feeder cattle supply over 600 pounds was 65%. The CME feeder cattle index 4/29/2024: down $0.18, $247.00.

LEAN HOGS:

The lean hog complex didn't close as bleakly as the cattle contracts did, but its support wasn't all that great either as the market's nearby contracts continue to struggle as summertime demand remains in question. However, the market's deferred contracts were able to close slightly higher. Even though the summer 2024 contracts have been under pressure as of late, it is still encouraging to see that the June 2024 through August 2024 contracts are all still trading above $100.00. Today's pork cutout values closed mixed with the biggest gains being seen in the rib (up $3.81) but the $1.26 loss in the belly and $1.08 loss in the ham sucked the overall carcass price into closing lower. June lean hogs closed steady at $102.47, July lean hogs closed $0.02 lower at $105.42 and August lean hogs closed $0.27 lower at $103.40. Pork cutouts totaled 248.12 loads with 228.32 loads of pork cuts and 19.80 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: down $0.24, $98.76. Tuesday's slaughter is estimated at 482,000 head -- 4,000 head less than a week ago but 10,000 head more than a year ago. The CME lean hog index 4/26/2024: down $0.52, $90.36.

WEDNESDAY'S HOG CALL: Steady/somewhat lower. Packers bought over 6,000 head in today's cash market which could mean that the bulk of their weekly buying is done.

Tuesday Midday Livestock Market Summary - Traders Send the Complex Retreating

GENERAL COMMENTS:

The livestock complex has been under pressure since Tuesday's start and as the market nears Tuesday's noon hour -- the intensity of the market's technical pressure has only grown stronger. No asking prices are noted yet in the cash cattle market, but trade will likely be delayed until the second half of the week. July corn is down 4 cents per bushel and July soybean meal is down $5.60. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 305.32 points.

LIVE CATTLE:

It's been a tough go thus far throughout Tuesday's trade for the live cattle complex as the contracts are trading fully lower and traders don't seem interested in focusing on anything but the market's pressure. Whether the downturn is stemming from the announcement that HPAI has been detected in some dairy cattle in Colorado, or from lousy boxed beef movement -- the day's pressure is being severely felt throughout the cattle complex. June live cattle are down $2.27 at $174.87, August live cattle are down $2.47 at $173.20 and October live cattle are down $2.65 at $177.12. No bids or asking prices have surfaced yet this week and trade will likely be delayed until Thursday or Friday.

Midday boxed beef prices are mixed: choice down $1.49 ($296.04) and select up $0.70 ($290.91) with a movement of 56 loads (28.90 loads of choice, 10.66 loads of select, zero loads of trim and 16.19 loads of ground beef).

FEEDER CATTLE:

With the live cattle market trading mostly $2.00 lower into Tuesday afternoon -- the feeder cattle market waived its white flag early on and is trading mostly $3.00 lower into the noon hour. May feeders are down $3.05 at $244.97, August feeders are down $3.60 at $256.02 and September feeders are down $3.57 at $257.15. Today's descent could be stemming from the announcement that HPAI has been detected in some dairy cows in Colorado.

LEAN HOGS:

The lean hog complex attempted to trade higher, but the market quickly sank back lower and is entering Tuesday's noon hour lower in the nearby contracts, but slightly higher in the market's furthest deferred months. June lean hogs are down $0.35 at $102.12, July lean hogs are down $0.47 at $104.97 and August lean hogs are down $0.20 at $103.47. Cash interest was stronger this morning as over 2,000 head have already traded. If cash support and pork cutout values can round out the day higher then Wednesday's market may stand a better chance at trading higher.

The projected lean hog index for 4/29/2024 is down $0.10 at $90.26 and the actual index for 4/26/2024 is down $0.52 at $90.36. Hog prices on the Daily Direct Morning Hog Report average $90.72, ranging from $82.00 to $92.00 on 2,906 head and a five-day rolling average of $90.49. Pork cutouts total 148.22 loads with 135.48 loads of pork cuts and 12.74 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: down $0.28, $98.72.

Tuesday Morning Livestock Market Update - Futures Expected to be Choppy

GENERAL COMMENTS:

Today is the last day to trade the April live cattle contract. June will take over, posting an $8.00 lower price as traders anticipate cash weakness over the next two months. There has been greater concern developing over demand through the summer months but that remains to be seen. Even though cattle numbers may be tight and heifer retention has not been taking place to any great extent, lower demand will impact prices. Packers will hold the line on chain speed to improve margins and keep supply in line with demand. Feedlots may have difficulty getting more money out of packers this week. Boxed beef prices were higher on Monday with choice up $0.39 and select up $1.49.

Hogs moved to new lows for the move but as the liquidation pressure subsided, buying interest surfaced. Futures bounced off support, which could follow through Tuesday. The packers were not aggressive Monday with the National Direct Afternoon Hog report showing cash down $0.75 with the weighted average at $89.63. This was offset by cutouts gaining $1.37. There is some concern over ongoing demand, but traders anticipate higher prices through the summer. The slaughter pace remains strong, which should keep packers purchasing hogs aggressively.

	BULL SIDE		BEAR SIDE
1)	Higher boxed beef prices indicate demand is holding and should keep packers interested in paying at now less-than-steady money.	1)	The packers purchased a fair amount of cattle last week for deferred delivery, which may leave them less aggressive this week.
2)	The large discount of $8.00 in the June contract may be too much and will move closer to the April price as it takes over as the front month.	2)	Traders anticipate further price weakness through the summer as cattle futures prices indicate.
3)	Hog futures bounced off support Monday, which could increase the buying interest of technical traders and push futures higher.	3)	Hog futures already have a premium in the summer contract months, possibly leaving little upside price potential for contracts.
4)	Packers are expected to be more aggressive Tuesday as they look to procure the hogs they need for the week and maintain the strong slaughter pace.	4)	Hog futures may establish a sideways trading range with price fluctuations confined to the range in the near term.

Monday Closing Livestock Market Update - Cautious Tones Dominate Complex

GENERAL COMMENTS:

It was a quiet day throughout the livestock complex as not much developed from either a technical or fundamental stance. Traders could be slightly more aggressive in the contracts on Tuesday as both pork cutout values and boxed beef prices closed higher. Hog prices closed lower on the Daily Direct Afternoon Hog Report, down $0.75 with a weighted average price of $89.63 on 1,095 head. July corn is down 3/4 cent per bushel and July soybean meal is up $9.60. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 146.43 points.

LIVE CATTLE:

With little action developing in Monday's market, it doesn't come as much of a surprise to see that the live cattle complex closed slightly lower. June live cattle closed $1.42 lower at $177.15, August live cattle closed $1.10 lower at $175.67 and October live cattle closed $0.82 lower at $179.77. What continues to be a worth-nothing threshold for the spot June live cattle contract is the market's 100-day moving average. Traders have struggled to consistently trade above that price point for the last week. But if fundamental support develops, potentially in the form of stronger boxed beef sales, traders could break above that resistance threshold and trade steadily higher if demand surfaces. New showlists appear to be mixed, higher in Kansas, Nebraska/Colorado, but lower in Texas. Monday's slaughter is estimated at 113,000 head -- steady with a week ago but 9,000 head less than a year ago.

Last week Southern live cattle traded for mostly $182 which is steady with the previous week's weighted average. Northern dressed cattle traded at mostly $294 which is $2.00 higher than the previous week's weighted average. Last week's negotiated cash cattle trade totaled 92,548 head. Of that 74% (68,496 head) were committed to the nearby delivery, while the remaining 26% (24,052 head) were committed to the deferred delivery.

Boxed beef prices closed higher: choice up $0.39 ($297.53) and select up $1.49 ($290.21) with a movement of 104 loads (63.96 loads of choice, 15.77 loads of select, 9.71 loads of trim and 14.25 loads of ground beef).

TUESDAY'S CATTLE CALL: Steady. Feedlots are likely encouraged by last week's cash cattle trade, but with packers buying just shy of 100,000 head last week, they may not have to support this week's cash sector as aggressively.

FEEDER CATTLE:

The feeder cattle complex saw plenty of support throughout the countryside as sale barn sales performed well -- but from a technical standpoint the market lacked the gusto it needed to drive the contracts higher. May feeders closed $0.67 lower at $248.02, August feeders closed $0.92 lower at $259.62 and September feeders closed $0.85 lower at $260.72. The spot August contract was able to remain above the market's 40-day moving average, but will need better interest come Tuesday if the complex is to keep above that price point. At Oklahoma National Stockyards in Oklahoma City, Oklahoma compared to last week and at their midsession point, feeder steers over 800 pounds were selling steady to $2.00 higher while steers under 800 pounds were trading $3.00 to $6.00 higher. Heifers over 800 pounds were selling $3.00 to $6.00 higher and heifers under 800 pounds were selling $3.00 higher. Feeder cattle supply over 600 pounds was 84%. The CME feeder cattle index 4/26/2024: up $1.65, $247.18.

LEAN HOGS:

The lean hog complex closed in a mixed manner as the market's deferred contracts were able to close slightly higher, but the nearby contracts struggled all the way through the day's close. One of the biggest concerns right now in the hog complex is the question of whether or not summertime demand is going to flourish. Thankfully on Monday afternoon pork cutout values were well supported, but the belly remains a cut that could be volatile and consequently affect the carcass price. June lean hogs closed steady at $102.47, July lean hogs closed $0.50 lower at $105.45 and August lean hogs closed $0.27 lower at $103.67. Pork cutouts totaled 332.70 loads with 299.10 loads of pork cuts and 33.60 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: up $1.37, $99.00. Monday's slaughter is estimated at 482,000 head -- steady with a week ago and 32,000 head more than a year ago. The CME lean hog index 4/25/2024: down $0.55, $90.88.

TUESDAY'S HOG CALL: Higher. It's likely that Tuesday's market will see slightly better interest than what Monday's complex received.

Monday Midday Livestock Market Summary - Traders Vaguely Support the Contracts

GENERAL COMMENTS:

Traders are taking a careful approach to Monday's market as all three of the livestock markets are trading mixed into the noon hour. The biggest thing that traders seemed concerned about for the time being is demand -- what will beef and pork demand be over the summer? July corn is down 1 3/4 cents per bushel and July soybean meal is up $8.20. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 105.02 points.

LIVE CATTLE:

The live cattle complex is trading gingerly into the day's noon hour as traders would like to see followed through fundamental support following last week's late-week technical advancement. Feedlots could be hard-pressed to get cattle traded for more money this week as last week's negotiated cash cattle trade totaled 92,548 head -- the second biggest volume sold thus far in 2024. June live cattle are down $1.10 at $177.47, August live cattle are down $0.80 at $175.97 and October live cattle are down $0.72 at $179.85. New showlists appear to be mixed, higher in Kansas, Nebraska/Colorado, but lower in Texas.

Last week Southern live cattle traded for mostly $182 which is steady with the previous week's weighted average. Northern dressed cattle traded at mostly $294 which is $2.00 higher than the previous week's weighted average. Last week's negotiated cash cattle trade totaled 92,548 head. Of that 74% (68,496 head) were committed to the nearby delivery, while the remaining 26% (24,052 head) were committed to the deferred delivery.

Boxed beef prices are higher: choice up $0.40 ($297.54) and select up $2.27 ($290.99) with a movement of 51 loads (30.88 loads of choice, 7.70 loads of select, 7.88 loads of trim and 5.01 loads of ground beef).

FEEDER CATTLE:

The feeder cattle complex is trading with a lower tone as the market would like to see the live cattle complex better supported before it advances. May feeders are down $0.97 at $247,82, August feeders are down $0.80 at $259.75 and September feeders are down $0.67 at $260.90. Feeder cattle interest throughout the countryside has been exceptional and with green grass and turnout season quickly approaching, demand should remain strong as there simply aren't as many feeders to sort through this year.

LEAN HOGS:

The lean hog complex is trading mixed into Monday's noon hour with only some of the nearby contracts struggling to trade higher. With there still being concern over what summertime demand will amount to in the pork sector, traders are cautiously trading the late summer early fall 2024 contracts. The big uptick in today's midday carcass price comes from a $31.99 jump in the belly which will likely continue to be a volatile cut moving forward. June lean hogs are up $0.17 at $102.65, July lean hogs are down $0.65 at $105.30 and August lean hogs are down $0.55 at $103.40.

The projected lean hog index for 4/26/2024 is down $0.52 at $90.36, and the actual index for 4/25/2024 is down $0.55 at $90.88. Hog prices are unavailable on the Daily Direct Morning Hog Report due to confidentiality. However, we can see that 170 head have traded and that Pork cutouts total 221.74 loads with 195.93 loads of pork cuts and 25.81 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: up $7.09, $104.72.

Monday Morning Livestock Market Update - Hog Futures Likely to Rebound

GENERAL COMMENTS:

Cash cattle maintained steady to higher cash prices that began to surface as the week progressed. This will give feedlots more confidence to hold for nothing less than steady prices this week. The packers may not cut back much further than they have and will need to maintain the current slaughter pace. Southern cattle traded at steady cash compared to the previous week with Northern cattle trading $2 higher. Boxed beef was mixed on Friday with choice up $0.22 and select down $0.94. Feeder cattle led the charge on Friday posting triple-digit gains with May through October contracts gaining over $2.00. The Commitment of Traders report showed fund traders adding 3,081 contracts to bring their live cattle net long futures positions to 40,113 contacts. There were 620 feeder cattle contracts added bringing the net long futures positions to 4,801.

It was a surprise hog futures were under significant pressure on Friday even though both cash and cutouts were higher. The packers needed to finish out purchases for the week stepping up and paying $1.67 higher with a weighted average of $90.38 according to the National Dairy Direct Afternoon Hog report. Cutouts gained $0.14 indicating continued supportive demand. However, trader psychology triggered the liquidation as some concern developed over the level of demand that will be seen due to the current higher prices. The packers will likely offer less cash today as they assess weekend demand. The Commitment of Traders report showed funds adding 3,994 long contacts bringing their net long positions to 92,002 futures contracts.

	BULL SIDE		BEAR SIDE
1)	Steady to higher cash cattle last week will keep feedlots confident packers will pay at least steady money this week.	1)	The differed live cattle and feeder cattle contracts still retain chart gaps below the market that may be filled at some point.
2)	Live cattle closed the week at the highest level in a month. The packers may not cut the slaughter pace any further and may pay at least steady money to obtain the cattle they need.	2)	Boxed beef continues to struggle with mixed prices on nearly a daily basis. Demand might have reached a plateau.
3)	Higher cash hogs on Friday are not common but indicated packers needed more hogs to maintain slaughter.	3)	The reduced export sales of pork may indicate that international demand is being affected by the higher pork prices.
4)	Liquidation generally runs its course after three days with hog futures falling back to support and the range they traded in two weeks ago.	4)	Hog futures fell back to the sideways trading range they had been in two weeks ago. Futures may trade in this range as traders assess upcoming summer demand.