Friday Closing Livestock Market Update - Cash Cattle Sales Keep Cattle Contracts Higher

GENERAL COMMENTS:

Even though the lean hog complex closed lower as concerns about summer demand pressured its market, the cattle complex rallied through the day without a hitch. Hog prices closed higher on the Daily Direct Afternoon Hog Report, up $1.67 with a weighted average price of $90.38 on 1,799 head. July corn is down 2 cents per bushel and July soybean meal is down $2.90. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 153.86 points.

Friday-to-Friday livestock futures scored the following changes: April live cattle up $3.20, June live cattle up $2.90; May feeder cattle up $6.70, August feeder cattle up $7.05; June lean hogs down $2.35, July lean hogs down $0.52; May corn up $0.07, July corn up $0.07.

LIVE CATTLE:

The live cattle complex rounded out the week's trade modestly higher as traders found support in the market's cash cattle trade. Throughout the week, Southern live cattle traded at $182, mostly steady with the previous week's weighted average, but Northern dressed cattle traded at $294, $2 higher than last week's weighted average. The spot June contract closed above its 100-day moving average, which continues to be a price point that the market dances around, but if traders could find enough immediate fundamental support in the market, they'd likely confidently trade above that price point.

June live cattle closed $0.77 higher at $187.57, August live cattle closed $0.72 higher at $176.77 and October live cattle closed $0.90 higher at $180.60. 

Friday's slaughter is estimated at 113,000 head -- steady from a week ago and 7,000 head more than a year ago. Saturday's slaughter is projected to be around 12,000 head. The week's total slaughter is estimated at 613,000 head -- 7,000 head less than a week ago and 13,000 head less than a year ago.

Boxed beef prices closed mixed: choice up $0.22 ($297.14) and select down $0.94 ($288.72) with a movement of 125 loads (87.99 loads of choice, 24.57 loads of select, 3.43 loads of trim and 9.24 loads of ground beef).

MONDAY'S CATTLE CALL: Steady. It will be interesting to see exactly how many cattle were sold this week and how they were committed to delivery. Packers are fighting to keep their margins profitable right now, so they won't easily give the cash cattle market any more money than what's demanded.

FEEDER CATTLE:

The feeder cattle market jumped into action for Friday's trade as the complex not only closed above its 100-day moving average, but the spot August contract closed above its 40-day moving average as well. Feeders were well supported throughout the day as traders took note of the cash cattle market's steady to $2 higher trade, and the market continues to be well supported by strong feeder cattle sales in the countryside.

I think it's also worth noting that the May and August feeder cattle contracts gained between $6.70 and $7.05 throughout the week -- that's a significant position!

May feeders closed $2.45 higher at $248.70, August feeders closed $2.25 higher at $260.55 and September feeders closed $2.15 higher at $261.57. The Oklahoma Weekly Cattle Auction Summary shared that compared to last week and throughout the year, steers and heifers traded $4 to $9 higher, but the biggest weekly advancement was seen on seven-weight steers which traded $12 to $14 higher. Slaughter cows sold $3 to $8 lower and slaughter bulls sold $9 lower. Feeder cattle supply over 600 pounds was 78%. The CME feeder cattle index April 25: up $0.38, $245.53.

LEAN HOGS:

The lean hog complex closed lower as traders grew concerned about the market's demand outlook through the summer. Pork cutout values rounded out higher the day, but there's been some recent volatility in the belly which has caused the carcass price to fluctuate. The market has also seen some technical pressure as traders, ahead of the market's recent downturn, were close to pressuring the market's long-term resistant threshold, which is a stiff barrier given its new contract high in the spot June contract and the highest price point the market has traded in over a year.

June lean hogs closed $2.52 lower at $102.47, July lean hogs closed $1.85 lower at $105.95 and August lean hogs closed $1.45 lower at $103.95. Pork cutouts totaled 257.21 loads with 240.27 loads of pork cuts and 16.94 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: up $0.14, $97.63. Friday's slaughter is estimated at 439,000 head -- 41,000 head less than a week ago and 11,000 head less than a year ago. Saturday's slaughter is projected to be around 4,000 head. The CME lean hog index April 24: down $0.21, $91.43.

MONDAY'S HOG CALL: Lower. Given there's some question regarding summer demand, packers won't likely to support Monday's cash hog market much.

Friday Midday Livestock Market Summary - Cattle Trade Higher, Thanks to Late-Week Support in Cash Market

GENERAL COMMENTS:

The livestock complex is trading mixed into Friday's noon hour as cattle contracts trade modestly higher fueled by stronger cash cattle trade. The lean hog complex is trading lower as traders worry about summertime demand. July corn is up 1 cent per bushel and July soybean meal is down $2.20. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 167.18 points.

LIVE CATTLE:

The live cattle complex is trading modestly higher as traders are thankful for late-week-added support from cash cattle sales. Bids have been renewed in Nebraska at $185 to $186 live, $294 dressed, and in Kansas at $184 live, but no new sales have been reported. Throughout the week, Southern live cattle have traded at mostly $182, steady with last week's weighted average, and Northern dressed cattle at $294 to $295, $2 to $3 higher than last week's weighted average. A few more sales could develop throughout the day, but the week's weighted average is likely set. June live cattle are up $0.65 at $178.47, August live cattle are up $0.82 at $176.87 and October live cattle are up $0.95 at $180.65.

Boxed beef prices are mixed: choice up $1.50 ($298.42) and select down $1.19 ($288.47) with a movement of 92 loads (63.41 loads of choice, 19.04 loads of select, 3.04 loads of trim and 6.32 loads of ground beef).

FEEDER CATTLE:

The feeder cattle complex is currently the leader of the cattle complex's higher move as all the contracts are trading anywhere from $1.00 to $2.00 higher. The strong fundamental showing developed late this week in the marketplace encourages the market. Between Northern dressed cattle trading $2 to $3 higher and continued support for feeder cattle in sale barn sales, traders have seen more than enough support to justify trading the feeder cattle contracts higher through Friday's end. August feeders are up $1.70 at $260.02, September feeders are up $1.52 at $260.95 and October feeders are up $1.40 at $261.

LEAN HOGS:

The lean hog complex continues to trade lower as the market worries about consumer support this summer. Thursday's lukewarm export report is also slightly affecting traders as they were hoping to see strong sales which would have boosted the market's morale. Yes, midday pork cutout values are higher, but traders are looking at the market through a broader, long-term perspective. June lean hogs are down $2.35 at $102.65, July lean hogs are down $1.87 at $105.92 and August lean hogs are down $1.50 at $103.90.

The projected lean hog index for April 25 is down $0.55 at $90.88, and the actual index for 4/24/2024 is down $0.22 at $91.43. Hog prices are unavailable in the Daily Direct Morning Hog Report due to confidentiality. However, we can see that 1,144 head have traded and the market's five-day rolling average now sits at $90.45. Pork cutouts total 189.07 loads with 179.42 loads of pork cuts and 9.65 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: up $2.71, $100.20.

Friday Morning Livestock Market Update - Cash Cattle Trade Steady to Higher

GENERAL COMMENTS:

It was a negative beginning for cattle but as further cash trading developed, cattle futures turned higher. Northern dressed cattle traded $1 to $2 higher generating interest in purchasing futures. The stage is likely set for cash activity today with Southern cattle likely to trade steady and Northern cattle higher. This was not expected earlier this week and the result of feedlots holding out due to tight supplies. More live cattle and feeder cattle contracts closed their chart gaps before futures turned higher, but later contracts still show gaps from a week ago. Weekly export sales were lower than the previous week and may have limited some possible gains. Boxed beef prices were mixed with choice up $1.18 and select down $0.76.

Hog futures were unable to find support as packers were not aggressive in the cash market. The National Direct Afternoon Hog report showed cash down $2.78 as most of the hogs needed this week had been purchased. Weekly export sales were better than the previous week 28,800 mt, but that failed to provide support to futures. Pork cutouts were up $0.22 showing at least steady retail demand. The selling pressure on Thursday took away most of the gains this week with contracts unable to retest the contract highs. Futures may trade mixed ahead of the weekend.

	BULL SIDE		BEAR SIDE
1)	More cattle contracts were able to close the chart gaps that had been below the market giving technical traders confidence in buying futures.	1)	The differed contracts in live cattle and feeder cattle futures hold chart gaps below the market that may be filled.
2)	Higher cash cattle trade should improve the price outlook as it indicates demand remains strong and supplies remain tight.	2)	The news of the potentially more widespread impact of the bird flu virus in dairy cattle than what has been reported may keep traders cautious and upside potential limited.
3)	Packers may be generally done buying for the week but pork demand remains strong and slaughter continues to run higher than a year ago. Hog weights declined by one pound from the previous week's average of 287 pounds.	3)	The failure of hog futures to retest the contract highs may keep futures in a wide sideways trading pattern.
4)	A drop in hog futures may be viewed as a buying opportunity by traders as funds seem willing to buy the break due to positive fundamentals.	4)	Lower export sales in the past two weeks may indicate international interest has declined due to higher pork prices. This may be a limited factor of price potential.

Thursday Closing Livestock Market Update - Northern Dressed Cattle Trade $2.00 to $3.00 Higher

GENERAL COMMENTS:

It was an excellent day for the cattle complex as cash cattle sales were higher in the North, but the hog complex did struggle throughout the day as traders weren't disappointed early on from the morning's export report. Hog prices closed lower on the Daily Direct Afternoon Hog Report, down $2.78 with a weighted average price of $88.71 on 1,695 head. July corn is up 3 1/2 cents per bushel and July soybean meal is down $1.60. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 375.12 points.

Thursday's export report shared that beef net sales of 15,200 mt for 2024 were down 14% from the previous week and 3% from the prior 4-week average. The three largest buyers were China (4,600 mt), Japan (2,500 mt) and Canada (2,000 mt). Pork net sales of 28,800 mt for 2024 were up 32% from the previous week, but down 25% from the prior 4-week average. The three largest buyers were Mexico (11,300 mt), Japan (4,200 mt) and South Korea (3,300 mt).

LIVE CATTLE:

On Wednesday, the cattle complex may have closed lower amid more news spreading about the HPAI virus, but traders quickly shook that news behind them and advanced the market notably through Thursday's trade as strong fundamental support surfaced from better cash cattle sales. Some light trade was noted in the North at $294 to $295 which is $2.00 to $3.00 higher than last week's weighted average. Southern live cattle continued to trade at $182 which is steady with last week's weighted average. But more than anything, it's extremely positive to see feedlots capitalizing on an opportunity to trade cattle higher and not letting technical or emotional trading disruptions alter their course. June live cattle closed $2.55 higher at $177.80, August live cattle closed $2.67 higher at $176.05 and October live cattle closed $2.05 higher at $179.70. 

Thursday's slaughter is estimated at 125,000 head -- 7,000 head more than a week ago and 2,000 head more than a year ago.

Boxed beef prices closed mixed: choice up $1.18 ($296.92) and select down $0.76 ($289.66) with a movement of 120 loads (83.56 loads of choice, 14.38 loads of select, 4.19 loads of trim and 18.06 loads of ground beef).

FRIDAY'S CATTLE CALL: Steady with the week's trend. Given that sales have now been reported in both regions, prices will likely remain steady where they are.

FEEDER CATTLE:

With Northern cash cattle trade scoring sales $2.00 to $3.00 higher than last week's weighted average, the feeder cattle complex was elated to trade higher upon such supportive fundamental news. May feeders closed $2.15 higher at $246.25, August feeders closed $2.00 higher at $258.30 and September feeders closed $1.92 higher at $259.42. The spot May contract was again able to close above the market's 100-day moving average, after falling below that threshold Wednesday afternoon. At Hub City Livestock Auction in Aberdeen, South Dakota compared to last week feeder steers weighing 650 to 749 pounds sold $8.00 to $12.00 higher, steers weighing 750 to 999 pounds sold $2.00 to $6.00 higher. Heifers were lightly tested but those weighing 600 to 649 pounds sold $10.00 to $14.00 higher. Cattle suitable for grass continue to see excellent demand as the opportunity to get these types of cattle bought to fill pastures dwindles each week. The CME feeder cattle index 4/24/2024: up $2.51, $245.15.

LEAN HOGS:

More than anything the lean hog complex seemed let down from Thursday's export report as traders have become accustomed to seeing large sales made given the excellent demand seen in the first quarter of the year. Pork cutout values closed slightly higher, but not even steady, stable support from domestic customers was enough to encourage traders through the day's trade. June lean hogs closed $2.45 lower at $105.00, July lean hogs closed $2.05 lower at $107.80 and August lean hogs closed $1.75 lower at $105.40. Pork cutouts totaled 221.79 loads with 190.12 loads of pork cuts and 31.67 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: up $0.22, $97.49. Thursday's slaughter is estimated at 485,000 head -- 1,000 head less than a week ago but 10,000 head more than a year ago. The CME lean hog index 4/23/2024: up $0.19, $91.64.

THURSDAY'S HOG CALL: Lower. Given that packers didn't show much support to Thursday's cash market likely means that they're all but done buying for the week and so consequently Friday's prices will likely be lower and on a thin volume traded.