GENERAL COMMENTS:
Monday's trade was a breath of fresh air for the cattle complex as many were worried that the market would pressure the current support plane of $172. Meanwhile, the lean hog complex didn't see the same level of support as most of its nearby contracts closed lower. Hog prices closed lower on the Daily Direct Afternoon Hog Report, down $0.89 with a weighted average price of $85.71. May corn is down 4 cents per bushel and May soybean meal is down $5.90. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 248.13 points.
LIVE CATTLE:
The live cattle complex rallied right through Monday's closing bell and thankfully closed above the market's support at $172. It will be interesting to see how traders handle the market's 100-day moving average currently at $176.29. Traders could likely elect to move the market sideways through the rest of the week as they expect to see a Cattle on Feed report on Friday that showcases significant on-feed numbers. June live cattle closed $2.35 higher at $173.82, August live cattle closed $2.37 higher at $171.12 and October live cattle closed $2.22 higher at $174. Monday's slaughter is estimated at 121,000 head -- steady from a week ago and 1,000 head less than a year ago. New showlists appear to be higher in all major feeding areas.
Last week, southern live cattle traded for $181 to $185, but mostly at $182, which is $2 lower than the previous week's weighted average. Northern dressed cattle traded for $293 to $301, but mostly at $293 to $295, which is $2 to $4 lower than the previous week's weighted average. Last week's negotiated cash cattle trade totaled 64,875 head. Of that, 75% (48,628 head) were committed to the nearby delivery. The remaining 25% (16,247 head) were committed to the deferred delivery.
Boxed beef prices closed mixed: choice up $0.31 ($300.88) and select down $4.20 ($291.34) with a movement of 90 loads (52.92 loads of choice, 22.43 loads of select, zero loads of trim and 14.84 loads of ground beef).
TUESDAY'S CATTLE CALL: Steady/somewhat lower. Given that packers were able to buy cattle with time last week, the lower trend in cash prices will likely continue.
FEEDER CATTLE:
The feeder cattle complex was able to keep its momentum through the day's end thanks to the added support of the live cattle market's higher tone. May feeders closed $3.80 higher at $238, August feeders closed $4.27 higher at $249.77 and September feeders closed $4.07 higher at $251.02.
Thankfully, even though the futures market has been pressured over the last month, demand has remained mostly steady in the countryside. At Oklahoma National Stockyards in Oklahoma City, Oklahoma, compared to last week and at the midsession point, steers over 700 pounds and heifers over 650 pounds were trading steady, but steers under 700 pounds and heifers under 650 pounds were selling $3 to $7 lower. Feeder cattle supply over 600 pounds was 77%. The CME feeder cattle index April 12: down $3.50, $241.07.
LEAN HOGS:
The lean hog complex faced some pushback throughout Monday's trade but the spot June contract was still able to close, thanks to the support of consumers and a higher ending afternoon cutout value. June lean hogs closed $0.37 higher at $102.45, July lean hogs closed $0.50 lower at $103.75 and August lean hogs closed $0.67 lower at $101.57. The carcass price was mostly influenced by the belly's $19.29 jump, but the rib closed higher too, up $2.03.
Monitoring not only the value of the carcass price but also the loads moved will be essential for the market moving forward as traders continue to closely track consumer demand following the concern of continued inflation. Pork cutouts totaled 244.27 loads with 218.47 loads of pork cuts and 25.80 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: up $2.40, $103.60. Monday's slaughter is estimated at 488,000 head -- 22,000 head more than a week ago and 23,000 head more than a year ago. The CME lean hog index April 11: up $0.72, $90.56.
TUESDAY'S HOG CALL: Higher. Packers didn't do much in Monday's market so it's likely that they could show more interest in either Tuesday or Wednesday's market.
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