GENERAL COMMENTS:
The livestock complex closed mostly higher Thursday afternoon despite there being more confirmed cases of HPAI in dairy cattle now in South Dakota and North Carolina. The cash cattle market saw a few deals develop in the South, but the North has yet to trade any cattle. Hog prices closed lower on the Daily Direct Afternoon Hog Report, down $3.58 with a weighted average price of 87.05 on 2,699 head. May corn is down 5 1/2 cents per bushel and May soybean meal is up $4.70. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 2.43 points.
LIVE CATTLE:
The live cattle complex's higher close is encouraging given that two more states (South Dakota and North Carolina) were added to the list of those who have positive cases of HPAI in dairy cattle, and yet, the market still closed higher. April live cattle closed $1.17 higher at $180.25, June live cattle closed $1.05 higher at $173.90 and August live cattle closed $0.80 higher at $171.45. A few cash cattle sales were noted in the South at $182, which is $2.00 lower than last week's weighted average. Asking prices remain firm in the South at $186 and in the North at $295 to $297. More trade will develop on Friday as Northern sales have yet to develop. Thursday's slaughter is estimated at 124,000 head -- 2,000 head more than a week ago and steady with a year ago.
Thursday's WASDE report was supportive of both the cattle and beef markets. Beef production for 2024 grew by 130 million pounds from last month's projection as carcass weights are heavier and processing speeds are projected to run more aggressively than originally assumed. The continued interest in beef products mixed with tight supplies also favored quarterly steer price projections as all three quarters remaining in 2024 saw price increases from March's WASDE projection. The second quarter of 2024 is now expected to average $185 (up $2.00), the third quarter is expected to average $184 (up $2.00) and the fourth quarter is expected to average $190 (up $4.00). 2024 imports remained unchanged at 4,175 million pounds, but 2024 beef exports grew by 20 million pounds.
Boxed beef prices closed mixed: choice up $0.14 ($298.37) and select down $0.87 ($295.15) with a movement of 124 loads (66.30 loads of choice, 15.42 loads of select, 6.79 loads of trim and 35.57 loads of ground beef).
FRIDAY'S CATTLE CALL: Lower. Given the pressure that the market has recently endured, it's likely that this week's trade will be lower amid slower processing speeds and weaker boxed beef prices.
FEEDER CATTLE:
With the encouragement of the live cattle market's higher end, and the corn complex's $0.04 to $0.05 lower end, the feeder cattle contracts were able to round out the day higher -- take the win! April feeders closed $0.90 higher at $239.17, May feeders closed $1.62 higher at $238.15 and August feeders closed $1.35 higher at $248.95. The market is still burdened with pressure (HPAI news, technical nervousness/sell-out) but today's action at least didn't put any more pressure on the market. At Winter Livestock Auction in Pratt, Kansas compared to last week and at their midsession point, feeder steers and heifers weighing 800 to 975 pounds were trading steady to $4.00 higher. Demand was noted to be good across all classes. Feeder cattle supply over 600 pounds 99%. The CME feeder cattle index 4/10/2024: down $1.84, $243.65.
LEAN HOGS:
Between the day's export report, WASDE Outlook and higher close in pork cutout values -- the lean hog complex didn't struggle one bit to find the fundamental support it needed to close higher. June lean hogs closed $0.25 higher at $105.80, July lean hogs closed $0.12 higher at $107.62 and August lean hogs closed $0.17 lower at $105.10. Between the $7.75 jump in the belly and the $4.76 jump in the rib -- this afternoon's carcass price was able to close higher with confidence. Even though the economy continues to be a challenge, thankfully consumers continue to support the pork industry and have helped the market regain its footing following last year's tumultuous financial trials. Pork cutouts totaled 197.31 loads with 172.46 loads of pork cuts and 24.84 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: up $1.04, $101.29. Thursday's slaughter is estimated at 491,000 head -- steady with a week ago and 12,000 head more than a year ago. The CME lean hog index 4/9/2024: down $0.10, $88.78.
Thursday's WASDE report was supportive of both the hog and pork markets. Pork production for 2024 was increased by 180 million pounds as packers have been running processing speeds more aggressively than originally assumed. The market's current pork demand has also helped increase hog prices and all three of the remaining quarters of 2024 saw a price increase from last month's projection. Hog prices in the second quarter of 2024 are expected to average $68 (up $3.00), third quarter prices are expected to average $72 (up $5.00) and the fourth quarter is expected to average $57 (up $1.00). 2024 pork imports grew by 20 million pounds, but exports also grew by 210 million pounds.
FRIDAY'S HOG CALL: Lower. It would appear as though packers have secured their weekly needs from this week's cash market already.
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