GENERAL COMMENTS:
The cattle complex saw the biggest support throughout Thursday's complex as the USDA's announcement about finding no traces of avian influenza in ground beef was a major victory for the industry. Hog prices closed lower on the Daily Direct Afternoon Hog Report, down $0.24 with a weighted average price of $91.78 on 2,378 head. July corn is up 9 cents per bushel and July soybean meal is up $15.90. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 322.37 points.
Thursday's export report shared that beef net sales of 22,500 mt for 2024 -- a marketing year high -- were up 48% from the previous week and 38% from the prior 4-week average. The three largest buyers were South Korea (9,600 mt), Japan (5,200 mt) and Taiwan (2,500 mt). Pork net sales of 33,600 mt for 2024 were up 17% from the previous week and 6% from the previous 4-week average. The three primary buyers were Mexico (21,600 mt), Japan (4,200 mt) and Canada (1,300 mt).
LIVE CATTLE:
The live cattle complex finally caught a break and capitalized on the day's strength as the USDA announced that all 30 samples of ground beef that they tested for the bird flu came back negative!
Upon receiving this news and the marketing year high for beef exports -- traders had all the support in Thursday's market that they could have ever hoped for. June live cattle closed $2.95 higher at $176.80, August live cattle closed $2.85 higher at $173.95 and October live cattle closed $2.52 higher at $177.37. And to boot, the cash cattle market traded cattle higher again this week. Some light trade was reported in the North at $186 live and $295 to $296 dressed which is $1.00 to $2.00 higher than last week's weighted average. The Southern plains didn't see much movement as packers were offering $182 but feedlot's asking prices were firm at $185 to $186. More trade will likely develop on Friday.
Thursday's slaughter is estimated at 120,000 head -- 5,000 head less than a week ago and steady with a year ago.
Boxed beef prices closed lower: choice down $0.64 ($292.90) and select down $0.09 ($287.98) with a movement of 164 loads (107.18 loads of choice, 29.61 loads of select, 6.70 loads of trim and 20.89 loads of ground beef).
FRIDAY'S CATTLE CALL: Steady with the week's higher trend. Given that the North has been able to trade cattle higher again this week -- it's likely that the Southern Plains will sell cattle for at least steady money, if not $1.00 higher.
FEEDER CATTLE:
With ample support seen in the live cattle complex, the feeder cattle market had no issue rounding out Thursday's trade higher as the market's technical/outside pressures were what was holding the market back. May feeders closed $2.17 higher at $243.60, August feeders closed $3.47 higher at $255.22 and September feeders closed $3.37 higher at $255.97. Feeder cattle sales in the countryside continue to perform well, but the bigger steers that will be ready to market mid-summer are seeing a little weaker tone as buyers know that marketing cattle during the dog days of summer is always a challenge. At Mobridge Livestock Exchange in Mobridge, South Dakota compared to last week steers weighing 850 to 899 pounds sold $3.00 to $4.00 higher but the steers weighing 900 to 999 pounds sold $5.00 to $10.00 lower. Feeder cattle supply over 600 pounds was 100%. The CME feeder cattle index 5/1/2024: down $3.69, $243.37.
LEAN HOGS:
Outside of the spot June and July 2024 contracts, the lean hog complex was able to close mostly higher. Summer demand remains in question for the lean hog complex and with pork cutout values being volatile as of late, traders are uneasy about trading the nearby contracts. Thankfully they kept their concerns isolated to just the nearby contracts, however, and continued to support the rest of the complex as the deferred contracts all closed higher. It was surprising to note that packers again bought modestly in today's cash market which I didn't expect given that they bought aggressively on Tuesday and Wednesday. But with processing running more aggressively than compared to a year ago -- the need for more hogs continues. June lean hogs closed $0.50 lower at $99.92, July lean hogs closed $0.10 lower at $103.52 and August lean hogs closed $0.05 higher at $102.20. Pork cutouts totaled 201.01 loads with 177.98 loads of pork cuts and 23.03 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: down $0.11, $97.88. Thursday's slaughter is estimated at 481,000 head -- 4,000 head less than a week ago and 10,000 head more than a year ago. The CME lean hog index 4/30/2024: up $0.34, $90.60.
FRIDAY'S HOG CALL: Lower. It's unlikely that packers will buy very many hogs in Friday's market as they have bought aggressively earlier this week.
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