Thursday, May 16, 2024

Thursday Closing Livestock Market Update - Feedlots Aim for Higher Cash Prices

GENERAL COMMENTS:

The livestock complex rallied throughout Thursday's trade and all three of the markets closed higher. Still no cash cattle trade has developed, which means that Friday's market could be in for some excitement as feedlots seem determined to get their showlists marketed at higher prices. Hog prices closed higher on the Daily Direct Afternoon Hog Report, up $0.40 with a weighted average price of $89.36 on 1,109 head. July corn is down 5 1/2 cents per bushel and July soybean meal is down $4.00. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 38.62 points.

Thursday's export report shared that beef net sales of 15,100 mt for 2024 were up 23% from the previous week but down 11% from the prior 4-week average. The three largest buyers were Japan (6,600 mt), China (1,900 mt) and Taiwan (1,700 mt). Pork net sales of 21,100 mt for 21,100 mt for 2024 -- a marketing year low -- were down 14% from the previous week and 22% from the prior 4-week average. The three largest buyers were Japan (4,900 mt), Mexico (4,500 mt) and South Korea (3,200 mt).

LIVE CATTLE:

It was another powerful day for the live cattle complex as the market continues to charge onward and forward thanks to the seasonal beef demand that's perked up as consumers prepare for prime Memorial Day grilling. June live cattle closed $0.77 higher at $179.02, August live cattle closed $0.85 higher at $177.37 and October live cattle closed $0.92 higher at $180.62. The spot August contract closed above its 100-day moving average which is an impressive feat for the complex and shows the significance of the fundamental support stemming from higher box prices. The cash cattle market has also noted the uptick in the futures complex thanks to better consumer interest which has emboldened feedlots to price their showlists higher and wait the week out for packer interest. All in all, the market's movement has been virtually no cattle sold thus far, as packers are dreading the idea of giving more money for cattle as they face pressured margins already. Asking prices in the South are noted at $186 to $187, and in the North at $300 plus. 

Thursday's slaughter is estimated at 124,000 head -- 2,000 head more than a week ago and 1,000 head more than a year ago.

Boxed beef prices closed higher: choice up $3.38 ($310.15) and select up $2.20 ($296.51) with a movement of 115 loads (62.09 loads of choice, 25.93 loads of select, 14.21 loads of trim and 12.84 loads of ground beef).

FRIDAY'S CATTLE CALL: Higher. Packers may not want to give any more money for cash cattle this week, but nor can they afford to forgo being able to sell beef when the market is trending higher amid excellent consumer demand.

FEEDER CATTLE:

The feeder cattle complex kept with its rallying spirit through Thursday's end as the market is currently seeing ample support from both its technical and fundamental components. May feeders closed $1.70 higher at $244.85, August feeders closed $1.47 higher at $257.35 and September feeders closed $1.45 higher at $258.40. With seasonal beef demand continuing to push boxed beef prices higher, and the feedlots seeming unwilling to even think about trading cattle unless packers offer more money -- the moral throughout the entire cattle complex is strong. At Mitchell Livestock Auction in Mitchell, South Dakota compared to last week feeder steers weighing 700 to 950 pounds sold with a higher undertone, but steers weighing 900 to 1,000 pounds sold $2.00 higher. Feeder heifers weighing 700 to 900 pounds sold unevenly steady with a stronger undertone, but heifers weighing 900 to 950 pounds traded $5.00 higher. Feeder cattle supply over 600 pounds was 98%. The CME feeder cattle index 5/15/2024: up $0.54, $242.33.

LEAN HOGS:

The lean hog complex traded wildly throughout the day as the market stretched its position higher and then lower but was thankfully able to round out the day on a stronger note despite the fact that pork cutout values closed slightly lower and that export sales were disappointing. June lean hogs closed $0.87 higher at $98.37, July lean hogs closed $0.75 higher at $101.62 and August lean hogs closed $0.77 higher at $100.80. With pork cutout values rounding out the day lower, it's likely that the market trades lower on Friday as cash demand isn't substantiating and it's appearing as though pork consumers are lacking on the week as well. Pork cutouts totaled 242.40 loads with 209.37 loads of pork cuts and 33.03 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: down $1.43, $100.27. Thursday's slaughter is estimated at 479,000 head -- 7,000 head more than a week ago and 9,000 head more than a year ago. The CME lean hogs index 5/14/2024: up $0.47, $91.76.

FRIDAY'S HOG CALL: Lower. With it being Friday and pork cutout values trending lower, it's unlikely that the cash market will see much packer interest on Friday.




No comments:

Post a Comment