GENERAL COMMENTS:
Even though the cash cattle market hasn't seen any trade develop, the cattle complex is rallying into Thursday's noon hour as the day's export report was helpful, and again boxed beef prices are higher. July corn is down 6 1/4 cents per bushel and July soybean meal is down $2.00. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 57.87 points.
Thursday's export report shared that, beef net sales of 15,100 mt for 2024 were up 23% from the previous week but down 11% from the prior 4-week average. The three largest buyers were Japan (6,600 mt), China (1,900 mt) and Taiwan (1,700 mt). Pork net sales of 21,100 mt for 21,100 mt for 2024 -- a marketing year low -- were down 14% from the previous week and 22% from the prior 4-week average. The three largest buyers were Japan (4,900 mt), Mexico (4,500 mt) and South Korea (3,200 mt).
LIVE CATTLE:
With a modestly supportive export sales report and higher boxed beef prices, the live cattle complex is trading higher and pressuring the upper end of the market's current trading range. The spot August contract is currently trading above its 100-day moving average which is an incredibly bullish signal that traders are indeed interested in supporting the market. Depending on what the cash cattle market does this week -- traders could either close above that threshold or dip back below it depending on what feedlots get accomplished in the countryside. Still no cash cattle trade has developed but asking prices are noted in the South at $186 to $187 plus, and in the North at $300. No bids are currently being offered. June live cattle are up $1.12 at $179.42, August live cattle are up $1.20 at $177.72 and October live cattle are up $1.15 at $180.85.
Boxed beef prices are higher: choice up $2.74 ($309.51) and select up $3.09 ($297.40) with a movement of 51 loads (20.09 loads of choice, 9.97 loads of select, 11.69 loads of trim and 9.07 loads of ground beef).
FEEDER CATTLE:
The combination of lower corn prices amid rising beef demand has accelerated the feeder cattle market's momentum and is helping the market trade fully higher into Thursday's noon hour. May feeders are up $1.67 at $244.82, August feeders are up $2.10 at $257.97 and September feeders are up $1.97 at $258.92. The market's next resistance level is its 100-day moving average, which the complex won't likely come up against this afternoon but could on Friday if traders' support remains aggressive. If cash cattle prices trade higher, then traders may be emboldened to pressure that threshold.
LEAN HOGS:
Even with the morning's disappointing export report, the lean hog complex seems unscathed as it continues to trend higher. June lean hogs are up $1.30 at $98.80, July lean hogs are up $1.15 at $102.02 and August lean hogs are up $1.02 at $101.05. The market may have assumed enough of a decline through Wednesday's end traders feel as though reacting to the export report news is unneeded. Midday fundamental support is just mixed with pork cutout values slightly lower and cash prices up modestly.
The projected lean hog index for 5/15/2024 is up $0.37 at $92.13 and the actual index for 5/14/2024 is up $0.47 at $91.76. Hog prices are higher on the Daily Direct Morning Hog Report, up $0.40 with a weighted average price of $89.36, ranging from $86.00 to $90.00 on 1,109 head and a five-day rolling average of $88.63. Pork cutouts total 165.14 loads with 142.99 loads of pork cuts and 22.15 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: down $0.76, $100.94.
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