Friday Closing Livestock Market Update - Hogs Hustle Trade

GENERAL COMMENTS:

Technically speaking, both the live cattle and feeder cattle contracts closed lower, which may seem like a damper for those markets. But in all actuality, with the fundamentals aligning in the cattle complex, the market seemed to have simply paused before next week where more upside is likely to be seen. Hog prices closed lower on the National Direct Afternoon Hog Report, down $0.82 with a weighted average of $61.70 on 7,471 head. December corn is up 5 1/2 cents per bushel, and December soybean meal is up $1.70. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 13.08 points, and the NASDAQ is up 2.24 points.

From Friday to Friday, livestock futures scored the following changes: October live cattle up $3.28, December live cattle up $0.95, November feeder cattle down $0.32, January feeder cattle down $1.20, December lean hogs up $2.75 and February lean hogs up $2.05.

LIVE CATTLE:

Friday's futures complex may have given up what the market achieved earlier in the week, but you cannot overlook the shift in leverage that is finally favoring feedlots' position. Boxed beef prices are finding support, processing speeds are clipping through packers' inventory and front-end supplies are getting cleaned up -- all of which cries for the cash cattle market to rally while the opportunity shines. December live cattle closed $1.05 lower at $129.27, February live cattle closed $1.52 lower at $134.22 and April live cattle closed $1.22 lower at $137.22. Friday's cash cattle trade was essentially nonexistent as the week's business was taken care of earlier in the week. Heading into next week's trade, the cash cattle market should be able to demand higher prices again, and the board has plenty of room for upside trading. This past week, dressed cattle traded at $196 to $200, which is $4 higher than a week ago, and Southern live cattle traded at $124 to $126, which is steady to $2 higher.

Friday's slaughter is estimated at 120,000 head -- 8,000 head more than a week ago and 5,000 head more than a year ago. Saturday's slaughter is projected to be around 60,000 head -- 7,000 head less than a week ago and 1,000 head less than a year ago. This week's total slaughter is estimated at 668,000 head, which puts the nation's total beef slaughter 3.2% ahead of where it was last year at this time.

Boxed beef prices closed higher: choice up $0.83 ($285.72) and select up $0.73 ($263.37) with a movement of 113 loads (68.73 loads of choice, 22.89 loads of select, 12.20 loads of trim and 9.23 loads of ground beef). On average throughout the week, choice cuts averaged $284.41 (up $3.71 from last week) and select cuts averaged $262.68 (up $0.69 from last week), and the week's total movement of cuts, grinds and trim totaled 677 loads.

MONDAY'S CASH CATTLE CALL: $2 higher. Feedlots played their cards wisely this past week and were able to push the market $2 to $4 higher as packers are short-bought and NEED cattle. Next week's market has the potential to be just as prosperous.

FEEDER CATTLE:

The feeder cattle complex can't help but be excited as the live cattle market made substantial gains this past week. But just as it's invigorating to see fat cattle sell $2 to $4 higher, it's equally as important to keep close tabs on the corn market's upside potential, as input costs can quickly suck away profits. The corn market's momentum wasn't quite as spunky as it was earlier in the week, but the nearby contracts' gain of $0.04 to $0.05 was enough to send feeders lower into the weekend. November feeders closed $1.07 at $156.57, January feeders closed $1.45 lower at $156.12 and March feeders closed $1.45 lower at $157.40. Heading into next week, the market will be anxious to trade higher but will need plenty of support from the live cattle market in order to do so. At Valentine, Nebraska, compared to last week, 450- to 500-pound steers traded $10 to $12 higher, 550- to 650-pound steers traded steady to $4 higher, and 450- to 550-pound heifers traded steady to $8 higher. Demand was seen all throughout the sale with plenty of buying coming from the crowd and internet. Demand was especially noted for replacement-quality females. The CME feeder cattle index 10/28/2021: up $0.92, $155.88.

LEAN HOGS:

Thursday's export report came as a shot in the arm for the lean hog market and helped the market trade higher all the way through Friday's close. December lean hogs closed $0.87 higher at $76.07, February lean hogs closed $1.47 higher at $78.67 and April lean hogs closed $1.52 higher at $82.05. As surprising as it may be, pork cuts also closed higher with the only cut that posted a lower price being the ribs, which fell $1.99 ($126.78). Cash prices still closed lower (which comes as no surprise) but overall, the market performed far better than what was anticipated for the week's outcome before Thursday's positive news came. Pork cutouts totaled 379.20 loads with 340.31 loads of pork cuts and 38.89 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: up $2.52, $96.52. The CME hog index 10/27/2021: down $0.97, $80.70.

Friday's slaughter is estimated at 474,000 head -- 6,000 head more than a week ago and 13,000 head less than a year ago. Saturday's slaughter is projected to be around 156,000 head -- 73,000 head less than a week ago and 93,000 head less than a year ago. This week's total slaughter is estimated at 2,551,000 head. Currently, year to date, that puts the country's total hog slaughter 2% behind where it was last year at this time.

MONDAY'S CASH HOG CALL: Lower. While higher prices may have been achieved through this week's close, it's unlikely that packers will see enough demand early next week to drive cash prices higher.

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Friday Midday Livestock Market Update - Hogs Cling to Thursday's Momentum

GENERAL COMMENTS:

Friday's trade hasn't been overly eventful for the livestock contracts, as traders are just seeming to dip their toes in the market. The lean hog contracts are trying to keep the momentum of Thursday's lively trade rolling, but the cattle contracts are trading mostly lower. December corn is up 3 3/4 cents per bushel, and December soybean meal is down $1.10. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 97.28 points, and the NASDAQ is up 7.99 points.

LIVE CATTLE

Live cattle futures are facing some moderate technical pressure in their nearby contracts, all while the market continues to march to strong fundamental support. December live cattle are down $0.87 at $129.45, February live cattle are down $0.85 at $134.90 and April live cattle are down $0.67 at $137.77. As the market trades the last couple of hours of the week before closing, traders are fully aware that the market's fundamentals are pointing to higher trade, but they seem to be unwilling to push the movement at this point. But the combination of robust processing speeds along with a rallying cash market and positivity in beef demand should give traders the confidence they need to support this rally. again next week. Friday's slaughter is estimated to be around 119,000 head (But remember, Thursday's slaughter was estimated lighter than what it ended up being, so it wouldn't be surprising to see a higher number printed this afternoon). There's not been any more cash cattle trade to speak of, as Wednesday was a big day for the market. Asking prices for cattle left on showlists are around $126 to $127 in the South and $201 plus in the North.

Boxed beef prices are higher: choice up $1.12 ($286.01) and select up $1.60 ($264.24) with a movement of 64 loads (42.87 loads of choice, 12.29 loads of select, 0.82 loads of trim and 8.16 loads of ground beef).

FEEDER CATTLE

The recent jolt in the corn market has set the feeder cattle contracts back on their heels as buyers try to gauge how much more upside the corn market truly has. Outrageous input costs will be what our children and grandchildren remember hearing about when we talk about 2021 in retrospect. From high hay prices, to a bizarre corn market, to the shortage of labor all throughout the country, everything costs more than what it did just a year ago. November feeders are down $0.92 at $156.72, January feeders are down $1.52 at $156.07 and March feeders are down $1.37 at $157.47. So long as the corn market doesn't shoot exponentially higher in the coming weeks, the feeder cattle complex should be able to rally on the shirttails of the excited live cattle market. Buyers have grown creative in their feed rations and see the upside potential of buying calves now and reaping the profits that are expected to come in 2022 when the market's dwindled cowherd really starts to be noticed.

LEAN HOGS

The lean hog complex is giving Friday its all, as the market is trying to push out the negative morale that is pushing the December and February contracts lower, all while the deferred contracts rally modestly. With not knowing if some relief will come from these mandated slower processing speeds, the nearby contracts trade hesitantly as supplies are backing up and demand is marginal. December lean hogs are down $1.02 at $74.20, February lean hogs are down $0.20 at $77.02 and April lean hogs are up $0.32 at $80.85. Cash prices and pork cutouts will both most likely close lower this afternoon as the week fizzles out ahead of the weekend.

The projected lean hog index for 10/28/2021 is down $0.81 at $79.89, and the actual index for 10/27/2021 is down $0.97 at $80.70. Hog prices on the National Direct Morning Hog Report are lower, down $1.43 with a weighted average of $60.78, ranging from $60.00 to $64.00 on 4,949 head and a five-day rolling average of $62.52. Pork cutouts total 286.29 loads with 261.01 loads of pork cuts and 25.28 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: up $2.71, $96.71.

Friday Morning Livestock Market Update - Follow-through Strength Expected in Hogs

GENERAL COMMENTS:

Friday is the last trading day for October live cattle with price falling back to get in line with cash. There had been hope that cash cattle would trade higher Thursday capitalizing on already higher cash business already done this week, but the disappointment of limited cash trade at prices already set for the week, triggered weakness. Higher weekly export sales than the previous week was not sufficient to stem the weakness that permeated through the cattle complex. The outlook remains for tightening cattle supplies through the end of the year with demand expected to remain strong, but that took a back seat Thursday. Boxed beef was higher with choice up $1.26 and select up $0.95, giving the impression a bottom may be in place.

Hogs took off higher Thursday with December leading the way. The bounce was generally technical in nature with some support from weekly export sales that were up 41% from the previous week. China being absent as one of the top buyers was offset by continued strong sales to Mexico. The large gain Thursday was not supported by cash with the National Direct Afternoon report down $0.67. Cutouts were better with an increase of $0.53. Futures should see some follow through Friday with technical traders possibly setting their sights on closing the chart gap on the upside. Saturday slaughter is estimated at 155,000 head.

	BULL SIDE		BEAR SIDE
1)	Processing speeds are brisk, and cattle seem to be current, which might result in higher cash again next week.	1)	The large decline regardless of higher cash cattle this week does not bode well for the premium December futures have to the current expiring October contract.
2)	Even with the decline Thursday, the recent trend for live cattle is up. Futures may rebound with the expiration of the October contract.	2)	There is expectation for higher cash due in the weeks ahead. If that does not materialize due to lighter demand than anticipated, prices may have a difficult time moving much higher.
3)	Hogs were able to bounce from support and may now be moving to close the nearby chart gap left on Oct. 21.	3)	The strength of hog futures Thursday was not fully supported fundamentally leaving it to mostly a technical event.
4)	Increasing demand for pork from Mexico is offsetting the nearly nonexistent demand from China. This may keep exports on pace with expectations.	4)	Packers continue to see plentiful supplies, making it unnecessary to bid higher at the present time. This may limit upside price potential.

Thursday Closing Livestock Market Update - Hogs Take Today's Opportunity and Run

GENERAL COMMENTS:

Thursday's focus mainly landed on the lean hog market where, after a brutal early part of the week, Thursday's export report helped boost the market's moral and led prices higher. Meanwhile the live cattle contracts may have closed lower, but market fundamentals are still aligning for a strong live cattle market in the weeks to come. Hog prices closed lower on the National Direct Afternoon Hog Report, down $0.67 with a weighted average of $62.52 on 9,457 head. December corn is up 5 1/2 cents per bushel and December soybean meal is steady. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 239.79 points and NASDAQ is up 212.28 points.

LIVE CATTLE:

It may not have been as exhilarating of a day for the live cattle contracts as the past two were, but fundamentals are getting brighter and brighter for this market. Thursday's slaughter was only expected to be 120,000 head, but by the day's end, projections shifted and Thursday's estimated slaughter is at 122,000 head again. With cash prices higher, packers having bought a significant number of cattle, and processing speeds clipping right along -- front-end supplies are getting worked through and feedlots are understanding that if they play their cards right, leverage should be in their hands in no time. December live cattle closed $1.25 lower, at $130.32, February live cattle closed $1.20, lower at $135.75 and April live cattle closed $0.92 lower, at $138.45. There wasn't much cash cattle trade reported Thursday afternoon as the bulk of this week's trade is already done. Thursday's slaughter is estimated at 122,000 head -- 2,000 head more than a week ago and 11,000 head more than a year ago.

Thursday's actual slaughter data shared that for the week ending Oct. 16, cattle slaughter totaled 643,134 head. Both steer and heifer weights were up 1 pound from the week before (steers 922 pounds, heifers 840 pounds), but steers are running 7 pounds less than what they were a year ago, and heifers are 10 pounds lighter than what they were on average last year.

Beef net sales of 19,200 mt reported for 2021 were up noticeably from the previous week and up 39% from the prior four-week average. The three largest buyers were South Korea (6,200 mt), China (4,500 mt) and Japan (2,800 mt).

Boxed beef prices are higher: Choice was up $1.26 ($284.89) and select up $0.95 ($262.64) with a movement of 130 loads (76.64 loads of choice, 21.53 loads of select, 13.98 loads of trim and 17.83 loads of ground beef).

FRIDAY'S CASH CATTLE CALL: Steady. With the market already having an established market, anything that's left to trade will most likely wait until next week or trade at the week's average.

FEEDER CATTLE:

The corn market kept its momentum through the day's end and had a toll on the feeder market's productivity. November feeders closed $0.82 lower, at $157.65, January feeders closed $1.37 lower at $157.57, and March feeders closed $1.35 lower at $158.85. The retraction in the live cattle market didn't come as a surprise, given that earlier in the week the market was so aggressive, but nevertheless the lack of onward pushing from the live cattle contracts bowed negatively for feeders. At Winter Livestock in Pratt, Kansas compared to last week, feeder steers weighing 700 to 950 pounds sold steady to $2.00 higher. Steers weighing 400 to 700 pounds sold steady. Feeder heifers weighing 800 to 950 pounds sold steady to $2.00 higher. And heifers weighing 500 to 800 pounds sold steady. Slaughter cows sold steady and slaughter bulls sold $5.00 lower. The CME feeder cattle index for Oct. 27: down $1.07, $154.96.

LEAN HOGS:

Thursday was a much, much better day for the lean hog complex. Pork cutout values closed higher, and the futures market jolted higher upon seeing a strong export report. December lean hogs closed $3.22 higher, at $75.20, February lean hogs closed $2.87 higher, at $77.20, and April lean hogs closed $2.20 higher at $80.52. Regarding pork cuts, bellies endured a smoother day as they climbed $6.33 as oppose to enduing double-digit losses as they did on Tuesday and Wednesday. Chopping sideways swings are expected to continue as holiday buying begins to work its way into the market and supplies still outpace overall demand. Pork cutouts totaled 262.91 loads with 227.10 loads of pork cuts and 35.81 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: up $0.53, $94.00. Thursday's slaughter is estimated at 483,000 head - 10,000 head more than a week ago and 2,000 head less than a year ago. The CME lean hog index for Oct. 26: down $0.99, $81.67.

Thursday's actual slaughter data shared that for the week ending Oct. 16, both live and dressed weights were up for hogs. Live weights were up 1 pound to average 288 pounds, and dressed weights were up 1 pound as well to average 214 pounds. Both live and dressed weights are only 2 pounds less than what hogs were weighing a year ago.

Pork net sales of 29,500 mt reported for 2021 were up 41% from the previous week but down 1% from the prior four-week average. The three largest buyers were Mexico (16,900 mt), Japan (3,300 mt) and Canada (2,800 mt).

FRIDAY'S CASH HOG CALL: Lower. With packers having access to plenty of hogs and heading into the weekend they will most likely minimally support the cash market before the week's end.

Thursday Midday Livestock Market Summary - Lean Hogs Take Advantage of Strong Exports

GENERAL COMMENTS:

The lean hog market has battled a tough week, but upon seeing Thursday's strong export report, the market has trudged higher and stole the spotlight of the livestock sector. Meanwhile, both the live and feeder cattle contracts are sitting on the backburner of the market, drifting lower as traders look elsewhere. December corn is up 5 1/2 cents per bushel and December soybean meal is down $0.20. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 182.60 points and NASDAQ is up 176.65 points.

LIVE CATTLE

The live cattle market is retracting after its strong advancements earlier this week. December live cattle are down $0.75 at $130.82, February live cattle are down $0.60 at $136.35 and April live cattle are down $0.40 at $138.95. After posting aggressive gains earlier this week, traders have seemed to pause their aggression and are looking over the fence to the lean hog market, where the day's excitement seems to be. Even though the futures market is trending lower, the live cattle market's morale is still strong. This past week, cash cattle prices have jumped significantly, processing speeds have run aggressively, and Thursday's export report showed positive figures as well. There isn't much to talk in regard to cash cattle, as its likely that the bulk of this week's trade is done with. Thus far, Southern live cattle have sold for $124 to $126 which is steady to $2.00 stronger than last week and Northern dressed cattle sold anywhere from $196 to $200, which is $4.00 more than what they sold for last week. Some clean-up trade could develop before the week's end but it's most likely that the week's trade is done for.

Beef net sales of 19,200 mt reported for 2021 were up noticeably from the previous week and up 39% from the prior four-week average. The three largest buyers were South Korea (6,200 mt), China (4,500 mt) and Japan (2,800 mt).

Boxed beef prices are mixed: choice down $0.99 ($282.64) and select down $0.49 ($262.18) with a movement of 61 loads (22.33 loads of choice, 15.75 loads of select, 11.62 loads of trim and 11.67 loads of ground beef).

FEEDER CATTLE

The feeder cattle market has sunk lower thus far through Thursday's trade and it's likely that the market will continue to do so if corn prices continue to trend green. With nearby corn contracts posting another $0.06 rally, feeders are having to refigure their input costs as they're wanting to buy more calves with the market's positive outlook for the live cattle market, but the revenue made has to outweigh the cost of getting the cattle to end weight. November feeders are down $0.32 at $158.15, January feeders are down $0.75 at $158.20 and March feeders are down $0.75 at $159.45. Even though feeders are having to push the pen to paper and need to know where their inputs lie, the uptick in the live cattle market has sent strong undertones throughout cattle complex and feeders are paying close attention. Strong sales have been reported throughout the country this past week as feedlots are anxious to buy calves. Calves that come to town with a vaccination program and that have been weaned are ringing the bell!

LEAN HOGS

China wasn't listed as one of the top three buyers in the morning's export data, but a debuting of strong sales is just what Thursday's market needed to scale higher. December lean hogs are up $2.77 at $74.80, February lean hogs are up $2.37 at $76.70 and April lean hogs are up $1.67 at $80.00. Thursday's slaughter is only expected to amount to 478,000 head, which isn't what the market needs. These slower processing speeds are crippling producers' ability to stay current and give packers more reason to wane the cash market lower. The strong export report will most likely keep the market positive throughout the day's close, but the problems of supply outpacing demand remain.

The projected lean hog index for Oct. 26 is down $0.99 at $81.67, and the actual index for Oct. 25 is down $0.32 at $82.66. Hog prices are lower on the National Direct Morning Hog Report, down $0.55 with a weighted average of $62.21, ranging from $61.00 to $65.00 on 6,843 head and a five-day rolling average of $63.10. Pork cutouts total 129.88 loads with 108.42 loads of pork cuts and 21.46 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: up $7.28, $100.75.

Pork net sales of 29,500 mt reported for 2021 were up 41% from the previous week but down 1% from the prior four-week average. The three largest buyers were Mexico (16,900 mt), Japan (3,300 mt) and Canada (2,800 mt).

Thursday Morning Livestock Market Update - Live Cattle Come to Life

GENERAL COMMENTS:

Live cattle futures benefited from higher cash again Wednesday. Dressed cattle in the North traded $4.00 higher than last week while Southern cattle traded $1.00 to $2.00 higher. This certainly gives feedlots confidence to use the market to their advantage and hold for higher prices. Maybe the premium to December and February contracts are attainable if packers continue to need cattle to keep demand satisfied. It is surprising packers were as aggressive as they were early in the week and despite the weakness of boxed beef. Choice cuts were down $1.13 with select cuts down $0.85. Weekly exports will either support the trend higher or limit price potential.

Hog futures were hit again Wednesday with December, February and April testing the lows from mid-September. February closed below support, possibly causing traders to rethink getting long the market at these levels. Hopefully weekly export sales will provide some positive numbers or further losses are possible. Cash did not find support, declining $0.62 on the National Direct Afternoon report. Cutouts could not find support with the average price down $0.85. Packers still see no need to step up to the plate and bid higher as hogs continue to be available and ready to come to the market. Estimated slaughter for Saturday is 155,000 head.

	BULL SIDE		BEAR SIDE
1)	Cash cattle has had a nice increase this week as packers needed to bid higher to obtain the desired numbers and keep the brisk slaughter pace.	1)	The outlook is for a plentiful supply of cattle, which may keep a lid on price potential through the end of the year.
2)	Boxed beef volatility gives the impression the market is finding a bottom with demand likely to improve through the end of the year.	2)	Feeder cattle weakness may be an anchor on the live cattle market along with a more bullish outlook for corn prices.
3)	Hog futures are at or near the lows from mid-August and oversold. A combination that could trigger short-covering.	3)	Hogs tested strong support with December closing below that level. This could open the door for sell stops being hit, pushing the market still lower.
4)		4)	Cash and cutouts just cannot seem to find a bottom, keeping bullish traders on the sideline.

Wednesday Closing Livestock Market Update - Live Cattle Keep Hustling

GENERAL COMMENTS:

The live cattle complex dominated the livestock sector as the market closed higher in its nearby contracts and was able to see a healthy advancement throughout the cash cattle market as well. Meanwhile, the feeder cattle contracts drew back in fear of a lively corn market, and the lean hog market slid lower unable to muster any demand. Hog prices closed lower on the National Direct Afternoon Hog Report, down $0.62 with a weighted average of $63.19 on 8,035 head. December corn is up 13 3/4 cents per bushel and December soybean meal is up $4.00. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 257.03 points and NASDAQ is up 1.95 points.

LIVE CATTLE:

You can count on one hand the number of times the 2021 cash cattle market has seen bids north of $125, and by the way this market is moving, higher prices could be here to stay. One of the biggest contributing factors to whether the market will sustain these higher cash cattle bids or not rests on the processing speeds of packers. Luckily, this week's daily pace has clipped along at a vigorous 122,000 head/day rate, which means that another week of seeing at least 660,000 head processed is very likely. As packers run a brisk chain speed, front-end supplies continue to be worked through and, as feedlots do the math, they're seeing that leverage could begin to work its way into their favor. December live cattle closed $0.12 higher at $131.57, February live cattle closed $0.57 higher at $136.95 and April live cattle closed $0.27 higher at $139.37. With the December live cattle contract closing above the 100-day moving average ($131.21) a new plane of higher prices looks more and more attainable. There was a moderate movement of cattle throughout Wednesday's trade, where Northern dressed cattle sold for mostly $200 ($4.00 higher than a week ago) and Southern live cattle traded at mostly $126 ($1.00 to $2.00 higher). Wednesday's slaughter is estimated at 122,000 head, 1,000 head more than a week ago and 5,000 head more than a year ago.

The Fed Cattle Exchange Auction listed a total of 2,692 head, of which 394 actually sold, 517 were scratched from the auction and 1,781 head were listed as unsold, as they did not meet the reserve prices that ranged from $125 to $128. Opening prices were $124, high bids ranged from $124 to $125.75. The state-by-state breakdown looks like this: Texas 1,530 total head, with 394 head sold at $125.50 to $125.75, 871 head went unsold and 265 were scratched from the auction; Kansas 840 total head, all of which went unsold; South Dakota 252 total head, all of which were scratched from the auction. California 70 total head, all of which went unsold.

Boxed beef prices closed lower: choice down $1.13 ($283.63) and select down $0.85 ($261.69) with a movement of 162 loads (88.26 loads of choice, 44.76 loads of select, 7.93 loads of trim and 21.30 loads of ground beef).

THURSDAY'S CASH CATTLE CALL: Steady with the week's advancements. With the cash cattle market seeing a fancy $2.00 to $4.00 rally, it's likely that the market will trade within the range set for the week.

FEEDER CATTLE:

The feeder cattle market had a back-and-forth day until the afternoon came around and the corn complex mastered a $0.13 rally that dampened the overall morale in the feeder cattle sector. November feeders closed $1.30 lower at $158.47, January feeders closed $1.65 lower at $158.95 and March feeders closed $1.50 lower at $160.20. The spot November contract weakened to the point of closing below the 40-day moving average ($159.23) which the market had successfully overcome just Tuesday. It may seem strange that the feeder cattle market closed lower while fat cattle prices jumped substantially higher, and the live cattle contracts closer higher as well, but the market's cautious attitude isn't out of line as volatile swings have become the new norm and traders want full confidence before risking too much positioning. At McAlester Union Livestock Auction in McAlester, Oklahoma, compared to last week, steers under 500 pounds sold $6.00 to $7.00 higher, and steers over 500 pounds sold $2.00 to $3.00 lower. Heifer calves under 500 pounds traded $3.00 higher, while heifers over 500 pounds traded $1.00 to $3.00 lower. Slaughter cows sold $2.00 to $5.00 lower and slaughter bulls sold $4.00 lower. Of the 325 slaughter cows and bulls that sold, 71% of them went to packers. The CME Feeder Cattle Index for Oct. 26: up $0.53, $156.03.

LEAN HOGS:

As if pork bellies hadn't lost enough already this week, Wednesday's afternoon pork cutout values shared that bellies took another beating as they lost $18.05 by the day's close. Adversely, hams saw a $13.65 price jump by the end of the day, which makes perfect sense with the weather dipping into cooler temperatures and the holidays being right around the corner. Meanwhile, the futures market neglected to find any essence of support and closed lower. December lean hogs closed $0.60 lower at $71.97, February lean hogs closed $0.82 lower at $74.32 and April lean hogs closed $0.80 lower at $78.32. As the market panics to find buying interest from consumers, Thursday's export report is likely to have significant pull on the market. If the report happened to show greater exports, all would gladly welcome the finding, but with packers running lackadaisical processing speeds, it's unlikely that they've seen much interest develop.

Pork cutouts totaled 356.05 loads with 301.53 loads of pork cuts and 54.53 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: down $0.85, $93.47. Wednesday's slaughter is estimated at 480,000 head, 2,000 head more than a week ago and 8,000 head less than a year ago. The CME Lean Hog Index for Oct. 25: down $0.32, $82.66.

­­­­­THURSDAY'S CASH HOG CALL: Lower. With the pork cutout value down $0.85, it's unlikely that packers hustle the cash hog market enough to raise the cash market.

Wednesday Midday Livestock Market Summary - Cash Cattle Jolt Higher

GENERAL COMMENTS:

It's been an exhilarating week thus far for the cattle market as cash cattle prices have seen a $2.00 to $4.00 jump over last week and the live cattle contracts are continuing to grind higher. The lean hog market still hasn't found the support that it's been looking and is concerned what may be unveiled in Thursday's export report. December corn is up 12 1/2 cents per bushel and December soybean meal is up $5.00. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 90.63 points and NASDAQ is up 89.28 points.

LIVE CATTLE

Tuesday's stark advancement on the board was great, but a $2.00 to $4.00 jump in cash cattle prices is even sweeter. It's been a long, long time since the market has reacted this positively to a bullish Cattle on Feed report, but what's helping rally the market as well is the fact that packers are short bought. The combination of the two factors has heightened the vibrancy throughout the live cattle market and sent both futures and cash prices higher. December live cattle are up $0.27 at $131.72, February live cattle are up $0.50 at $136.87 and April live cattle are up $0.27 at $139.37. There's been some dressed trade reported in the North at $200 ($4.00 higher than a week ago) and a light trade in the South at $126 (steady to $2.00 higher than a week ago). If packers continue to run at the speed of processing 122,000 head a day, the market could see supportive undertones for quite some time.

The Fed Cattle Exchange Auction listed a total of 2,692 head, of which 394 actually sold, 517 were scratched from the auction and 1,781 head were listed as unsold, as they did not meet the reserve prices that ranged from $125 to $128. Opening prices were $124, high bids ranged from $124 to $125.75. The state-by-state breakdown looks like this: Texas 1,530 total head, with 394 head sold at $125.50 to $125.75, 871 head went unsold and 265 were scratched from the auction; Kansas 840 total head, all of which went unsold; South Dakota 252 total head, all of which were scratched from the auction. California 70 total head, all of which went unsold.

Boxed beef prices are lower: choice down $1.41 ($283.35) and select down $0.44 ($262.10) with a movement of 93 loads (52.87 loads of choice, 20.63 loads of select, 3.21 loads of trim and 16.58 loads of ground beef).

FEEDER CATTLE

The corn market's $0.09 to $0.10 rally has grabbed the attention of the feeder cattle market, but so has the stellar cash cattle trade that's overcome the live cattle market. The market is in the middle of a balancing act as watching feed costs is crucial, but if the cash cattle market can break out of the sideways trap that's shackled all of 2021 -- that's big! November feeders are down $0.95 at $158.82, January feeders are down $1.12 at $159.47 and March feeders are down $1.05 at $160.65. Cow-calf producers are sending their calves to town, and with the market showing promising long-term upside potential in the live cattle sector, feeder cattle price will most likely see a bump in the countryside as well.

LEAN HOGS

The lean hog contracts toyed with the idea of trading mildly higher at Wednesday's start, but as the day has progressed, the market has continued to plunder as technical support has vacated the market. December lean hog are down $0.77 at $71.87, February lean hogs are down $0.82 at $74.32 and April lean hogs are down $0.75 at $78.37. It's tough to say where the market's bottom will be as the biggest question continues go unanswered, "where will the market find demand?" Regardless if it was international demand from higher exports or an uptick in our domestic supermarket, packers need to find a buyer. With that being said, seeing how Thursday's export report treats the hog enthusiasts will be pivotal in how the market reacts for the rest of the week.

The projected lean hog index for Oct. 26 is down $0.99 at $81.67 and the actual index for Oct. 25 is down $0.32 at $82.66. Hog prices are higher on the National Direct Morning Hog Report, up $0.15 with a weighted average of $63.81, ranging from $62.00 to $66.00 on 7,615 head. Pork cutouts total 201.42 loads with 161.69 loads of pork cuts and 39.73 loads of trim. Pork cutouts are higher: up $3.36, $97.68.

Wednesday Morning Livestock Market Update - Further Follow-through Expected

GENERAL COMMENTS:

Cattle futures finally reacted to the bullish implications of the Cattle on Feed report. This may have been fueled by some light cash trade developing in Texas at steady to $1 higher from last week. Traders seem to be hoping for more as front-month October live cattle futures closed $1.80 higher at $126.85. The October contract goes off the board on Friday. Generally, early cash trade seems to set much of the tone for the week. This may provide feedlots with confidence to hold for higher cash. Boxed beef was mixed, indicating the possibility of support being established. Choice cuts increased $1.72 with select cuts down $0.65.

Hogs took a beating again with futures seemingly intent on retesting the lows. Fundamental support still has not been confidently uncovered. Cash was higher on the National Direct Afternoon report with a gain of $0.15, but that left much to be desired. That was offset by cutouts declining $0.33 cents. Import demand from China has declined substantially, leaving more pork available for domestic consumption. Futures are oversold but may test support from mid-September before buyers may become more aggressive.

	BULL SIDE		BEAR SIDE
1)	Cattle futures moved above technical resistance on a delayed reaction to the report last Friday.	1)	December futures are holding a stiff premium to cash, which may be difficult to attain.
2)	Cash cattle traded steady to $1 higher with feedlots and traders hoping for more.	2)	There are a lot of cattle ready to be marketed, which may leave packers limited on how aggressive they will be to purchase them.
3)	Hog futures are oversold and are near a strong technical support level. This may trigger short-covering and a bounce higher.	3)	Hog futures seemed destined to test support from mid-September, which would mean further losses.
4)	T There is a substantial discount of futures to cash, which may result in some strength to the December contract.	4)	Cash and cutouts have yet to find solid support. Without that, traders lack the confidence to buy into the market for the longer term.

Tuesday Closing Livestock Market Update - Cattle Storm Higher

GENERAL COMMENTS:

The market may have been slow at finding all the bullish support that Friday's Cattle on Feed report had in store for the complex, but come Tuesday, the cattle contracts shot noticeably higher. The big question for the week now is whether or not cash cattle prices are going to see the same kind of gusto overtake its market. Hog prices closed $0.15 higher on the National Direct Afternoon Hog Report, up $0.15 at $63.81 on 7,615 head. December corn is up 5 1/2 cents per bushel and December soybean meal is down $0.30. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 15.73 points and NASDAQ is up 9.01 points.

LIVE CATTLE:

The live cattle contracts all posed a brisk close with gains well over $1.00 stronger, which consequently left cattle enthusiasts feeling confident enough to throw up a fist bump and say, "that's more like it!" Monday's stronger close was needed, but Tuesday's jump of $1.62 to $1.92 higher in the nearby contracts was even more important. I don't have to remind you that 2021 has been far from what most would consider a good year, but as the market works its way through the early stages of the fourth quarter, higher prices could be on the horizon. December live cattle closed $1.92 higher at $131.45, February live cattle closed $1.62 higher at $136.37 and April live cattle closed $1.35 higher at $139.10.

Come Tuesday afternoon, some cash cattle trade was reported in Texas at $124 to $125, which is steady to $1.00 stronger than last week. With the momentum that's brewing within the cattle sector, feedlot managers stand a good chance of demanding higher cash cattle prices if they will rally together and be willing to wait the week out. With both Monday's and Tuesday's daily slaughters being pinned at 122,000 head, swift processing speeds could push packers to need more cattle. Tuesday's slaughter is estimated at 122,000 head, 1,000 head more than a week ago and 3,000 head more than a year ago.

Boxed beef prices closed mixed: choice up $1.72 ($284.76) and select down $0.65 ($262.54) with a movement of 136 loads (48.82 loads of choice, 30.56 loads of select, 25.10 loads of trim and 31.44 loads of ground beef).

WEDNESDAY'S CASH CATTLE CALL: $1.00 to $2.00 higher. It's only Tuesday and the market has seen a $1.00 advancement throughout the cash sector. If feedlots rally together and demand the full $2.00 higher, the market may have to honor their demands as packers' supplies grow thin.

FEEDER CATTLE:

A window of opportunity presented itself to the feeder contracts as the live cattle market's enthusiasm seeped over and the corn market's $0.05 higher close as opposed to the $0.08 rally (which was seen at midday), all seemed to signal a summoning for higher trade. November feeder cattle closed $1.30 higher at $159.77, January feeder cattle closed $2.02 higher at $160.60 and March feeders closed $2.05 higher at $161.70. The November feeder cattle contract was able to close above the 40-day moving average of $159.51, which is a positive sign for cow-calf producers who are looking to market their calves. Thankfully, the day's gusto was also seen throughout sale barns as buyers stepped to the plate and really looked for calves that came with all the bells and whistles -- a vaccination program and calves that had been long weaned. At OKC West Livestock Auction in El Reno, Oklahoma, the market's prelim report shared that compared to last week, steer and heifer calves traded mostly steady, but calves that were long weaned and that had multiple shots sold $3.00 to $5.00 higher. The market was seeing the most demand for calves that had been weaned for at least 30 to 45 days. The CME Feeder Cattle Index for Oct. 25: down $0.39, $155.50.

LEAN HOGS:

The lean hog market suffered losses throughout the day and unfortunately the complex doesn't stand a strong chance of summoning much support in the near future. Overall, pork cutout values closed lower and even though Monday's pork belly prices were up considerably (up $13.27), the market gave back Monday's advancement as bellies alone fell $16.08 by Tuesday's close. Cash hog prices were up slightly from Monday, but unless packers see more buying aggression, their ambitions to support the cash market will dwindle as they look for a market to push their product. December lean hogs closed $1.62 lower at $72.57, February lean hogs closed $1.62 lower at $75.15 and April lean hogs closed $1.55 lower at $79.12. Tuesday's slaughter is estimated at 480,000 head, 2,000 head more than a week ago and 18,000 head less than a year ago. Pork cutouts closed lower: down $0.33, $94.25. The CME Lean Hog Index for Oct. 22: down $0.72, $82.98.

­­­­­WEDNESDAY'S CASH HOG CALL: Lower. Until there's clear support in pork cutout values, or unless the market finds a strong export report come Thursday, the market could see weaker prices.

Tuesday Midday Livestock Market Summary - Live Cattle Contracts Hunger for More

GENERAL COMMENTS:

Tuesday's trade has favored the cattle contracts and unfortunately left the hog contracts to plunder lower. The advancements seen throughout the cattle complex Monday were undoubtedly taken, but the market was somewhat disappointed that the bullish Cattle on Feed report, shared on Friday, didn't do more. If Tuesday's trade can keep with the pace that it's entering the afternoon with, the market may see the rest of the upward progression that some thought Monday lacked. December corn is up 7 3/4 cents per bushel and December soybean meal is up $1.10. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 68.94 points and NASDAQ is up 59.15 points.

LIVE CATTLE

The live cattle contracts quivered early Tuesday morning, seemingly unsure if the market would support another day of higher trade, but as the morning has progressed, the contracts have grown in strength and the December live cattle contract has managed to keep above the 40-day moving average of $129.12. December live cattle are up $0.52 at $130.05, February live cattle are up $0.52 at $135.27 and April live cattle are up $0.42 at $138.17. The recent uptick trend in the boxed beef market, along with the confidence that's prevailing throughout the futures market, may be the backing that the cash cattle market has needed to demand higher prices. Thus far, the market has yet to see any trade develop as packers haven't offered up any bids, and the only asking prices noted at this time are in the South at $126-plus. With last week's total negotiated cash cattle movement totaling 78,746 head, and of that 79% of the cattle being procured for the nearby delivery, this could indicate that packers' supplies are getting closer to the knife, and they may need to dip into the cash cattle market with more support than what's recently been seen. Bids could begin to develop Tuesday afternoon but it's more likely that they will develop midday Wednesday.

Boxed beef prices are mixed: choice up $2.10 ($285.14) and select down $0.04 ($263.15) with a movement of 66 loads (23.32 loads of choice, 11.97 loads of select, 3.43 loads of trim and 27.74 loads of ground beef).

FEEDER CATTLE

The $0.08 rally in the nearby corn contracts has paused (but not fully done away with) the excited nature that originally developed in the feeder cattle contracts Tuesday morning. The market is currently maintaining a respectable $0.42 to $0.62 gain in the early 2022 contracts where feeder cattle supplies are anticipated to be thin. November feeder cattle are up $0.02 at $158.50, January feeders are up $0.52 at $159.12 and March feeders are up $0.62 at $160.27. If the live cattle market can maintain its current strength into the later part of the week and demand higher cash cattle prices, the feeder cattle market may be able to rally upon its momentum.

LEAN HOGS

The lean hog complex is continuing to bleed red figures as the market struggles to summon any substantial support. One may be quick to point out the midday pork cutout value is up $2.24 ($100.51), but more times than not, when we put too much faith in the midday figure, the market's afternoon pork cutout comes to haunt us. December lean hogs are down $1.27 at $72.92, February lean hogs are down $1.17 at $75.60 and April lean hogs are down $1.15 at $79.52.

The projected lean hog index for Oct. 25 is down $0.32, at $82.66, and the actual index for Oct. 22 is down $0.72, at $82.98. Hog prices are lower on the National Direct Morning Hog Report, down $0.39 with a weighted average of $63.25, ranging from $62.00 to $66.00 on 5,350 head and a five-day rolling average of $64.59. Pork cutouts total 157.76 loads with 130.14 loads of pork cuts and 27.62 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: up $2.24, $100.51.

Tuesday Morning Livestock Market Update - Futures May Hold at Current Levels

GENERAL COMMENTS:

Cattle futures were the recipients of the friendly Cattle on Feed report, but gains were limited. Futures moved back to where they had been the day before the report. There are still a lot of cattle that will be available to the market over the coming months. The strength is not going to come from the report but from increased demand and more positive cash and boxed beef prices. Monday, boxed beef was higher with choice up $1.22 and select up $0.08. Traders will need to see this continue as evidence of increasing demand. There was no indication of cash potential this week as bids or offers have not been posted. However, showlists appear to be light. The inability of futures to push higher than they have may leave packers unwilling to bid higher than steady money again this week. The Commitment of Traders report showed funds adding to their long positions by 9,258 contracts increasing their net-long positions to 44,727 contracts.

Hogs struggled all day with only December showing consistent support. September pork inventory was neutral with stocks nearly identical to a year ago. However, total ham inventory was 33% higher than a year ago. This was offset to some degree by belly stocks being 48% below a year ago. Yet, even with ham inventory being high, ham prices have been experiencing some significant price swings over the past few weeks. Cash still has not found a bottom with the National Direct Afternoon report posting a decline of $1.97. Cutouts fell $3.69 adding to the difficulty of futures to find solid support. Traders are cautious over whether futures could test support nearly $2 below the current market. The Commitment of Traders report showed funds as sellers of 6,232 contracts reducing their net-long positions to 62,400 contracts.

	BULL SIDE		BEAR SIDE
1)	Cattle rejected the losses of Friday moving back up to where they had been. This could indicate the lows have been established, supported by the Cattle on Feed report.	1)	Cattle futures were unable to exhibit much strength from the bullish implications of the Cattle on Feed report. Demand fundamentals need to be more positive.
2)	Smaller showlists may result in packers having to increase bids to pull more cattle forward.	2)	Packers may be unwilling to bid higher again this week unless they see consistent demand improvement.
3)	Hog futures have two chart gaps above the market that will need to be filled over time.	3)	Cash and cutout weakness does not bode well for near-term prices.
4)	T Hog futures are oversold, which may limit downward selling pressure possible keeping prices from retesting the recent lows.	4)	Positive fundamentals are difficult to find, which leaves traders cautious and bearish. An oversold market can remain that way for a period of time.

Monday Closing Livestock Market Update - Cattle Futures Find Buyer Support

GENERAL COMMENTS:

Active gains developed in all cattle trade with triple-digit price surges following lower-than-expected cattle numbers and placement levels on Friday's cattle on feed report. Even though most nearby contracts sustained triple-digit surges, contracts closed well below session highs, as buyer interest clearly eroded as the session continued. This is slightly concerning as it could open up further market shifts later in the week in both live cattle and feeder cattle futures. Hog futures remain generally weak, but limited nearby gains developed, giving hope that additional buyer activity will develop Tuesday morning. Hog prices moved lower on the National Direct Afternoon Hog Report in light trade, falling $1.97 with a weighted average of $63.66 on 5,731 head. December corn is unchanged and December soybean meal is down $0.20 per ton. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 74 points and NASDAQ is up 148 points.

LIVE CATTLE:

Triple-digit gains developed in live cattle trade Monday as traders backed away from the bearish expectations seen last week before the cattle on feed report. Gains on Monday essentially offset Friday's losses in most nearby contracts, leaving traders a little more confident that firm buyer support may continue to slowly develop through the rest of October. Traders are also looking for support from both cash cattle trade this week and boxed beef prices, which have had trouble stabilizing through the month of October. Even though pressure last week has put live cattle markets under pressure, it is important to keep in mind that nearby contracts are still within $1 to $2 per cwt of six-week highs. Short-term caution and uneasiness by noncommercial buyers to actively return to the market may continue to limit sustained upward market moves through late October and early November. October live cattle closed $0.92 higher at $125.02, December live cattle closed $1.20 higher at $129.52 and February live cattle up $1.25 at $134.75. Cash cattle markets are still undeveloped for the week, which is not a surprise to any at this point. Asking prices and bids are still unavailable, with more activity likely to slowly trickle into the market through the next couple of days. Trade for the week is likely to be pushed off until Wednesday or later, but the focus on building on steady to firm prices last week continues to be the emphasis of cattle feeders. Showlists appear to be smaller through most areas with slightly lower offerings reported in Nebraska and Colorado, while Kansas and Texas are posting lower show list totals for the week. It is still too early to tell if this tightness in offered cattle supplies will stimulate initially higher bids, or if packers will buy what they can at steady money and push additional needs into November. The Five-Area Weekly average price moved above $124 per cwt, at $124.39 per cwt. This is $0.55 per cwt above the previous week, confirming the continued slight upward shift in cash markets over the last three of weeks.

Monday's slaughter is estimated at 122,000 head, 2,000 more than a week ago and 6,000 more than year-ago totals.

Boxed beef prices closed higher: choice up $1.22 ($283.04) and select up $0.08 ($263.19) with a movement of 136 loads (69.68 loads of choice, 22.17 loads of select, 33.83 loads of trim and 10.60 loads of ground beef).

TUESDAY'S CASH CATTLE CALL: Steady. Cash cattle markets are still expected to remain quiet early Tuesday morning, as both sides look for additional interest to develop through the first half of the week. Trade is likely to remain delayed until Wednesday or later. Feeders are looking for steady to higher price levels given cash market stability over the last few weeks.

FEEDER CATTLE:

Feeder cattle futures aggressively regained a portion of last week's market losses, although overall interest in the complex faded as the day continued. November and January contracts spent most of the session $2 to $2.50 per cwt higher, closed at about half of these early day gains as traders continue to look for additional support through the rest of the week. Support following lower than expected cattle placement levels in Friday's cattle on feed report was the main spark behind the Monday rally. Traders had anticipated a bearish report all last week, adding to the downward market spiral seen over the last week. The ability to build on current support levels in all nearby feeder cattle contracts will be essential in order to stimulate technical buying interest through the end of the month. Limited pressure in corn trade during early week trade is also creating caution to feeder cattle traders who are very attuned to changes in production costs. October feeders closed $0.20 higher at $155.62, November feeders closed $1.57 higher at $158.47 and January futures closed $1.25 higher at $158.57. The CME Feeder Cattle Index for Oct. 22: $155.89, up $0.78.

LEAN HOGS:

Lean hog futures focused on price stability Monday with light to moderate gains spilling over from the cattle complex into nearby futures. Deferred contracts still posted moderate losses as traders remain concerned about the ability to sustain and grow pork demand. Volatile moves in wholesale pork prices over the last couple of weeks has not subsided, creating lack of confidence from buyers, who at this point are comfortable hovering on the sidelines. Following last week's price tumble of nearly $5 per cwt, the underlying weaker market trend continues. Through the last week of October, traders appear to be searching for support levels on which to hopefully build through the month of November. Even though the market continues to remain oversold, a significant shift in market fundamentals will need to develop in order to spark sustained and substantial market gains in the near future. December lean hogs closed $0.87 higher at $74.20, February lean hogs closed $0.15 higher at $76.77 and April lean hog futures closed 0.20 lower at $80.67. Pork prices shifted lower following a $18.86 per cwt loss in ham cuts and $7.61 per cwt loss in butt prices. Strong belly price gains could not overtake the general pork market weakness Monday. Pork cutouts totaled 375.86 loads with 323.51 loads of pork cutouts and 52.35 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: down $3.69, $94.58. Monday's slaughter is estimated at 478,000 head, 6,000 higher than a week ago and 9,000 lower than a year ago. The CME Lean Hog Index for Oct. 22: down $0.72, $82.98.

TUESDAY'S CASH HOG CALL: Steady. Continued volatility in futures trade and pork cutout values is adding further concern about the ability to rally cash hog prices through the last week of October.

Monday Morning Livestock Market Summary - Buying Redevelops Across Cattle Futures

GENERAL COMMENTS:

Triple-digit gains have flooded live cattle and feeder cattle futures as traders react to the bullish news seen in Friday's cattle on feed report. With cattle placements in September falling below early analyst estimates and below the overall range of estimates, buyer support has ensued through morning trade. Live cattle futures are holding gains of $1 to $1.50 per cwt, while feeder cattle futures are $1 to $2.50 per cwt higher in most contract months. Although spill-over support is seen in December lean hog futures from positive cattle support, the overall hog complex remains unsettled as traders continue to search for demand support over the coming months. December corn is down 2 3/4 cents per bushel and December soybean meal is down $1.00 per ton. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 33 points with Nasdaq up 73 points.

LIVE CATTLE

Active gains aggressively swept through live cattle trade Monday morning as traders couldn't wait to trade the bullish news from last Friday's cattle on feed report. With lower total on-feed numbers and cattle placements from year ago levels, the focus on regaining market support was evident as prices moved $1 to $1.50 per cwt higher through morning trade. Although, at this point, the early week support is not enough to wipe out the bearish trend of the market. The focus on increased prices support may be enough to help stimulate commercial buying activity over the upcoming days. A move higher and stronger weekly close going into the end of October could be the sign traders have been looking for over the past two months. There remains only limited fundamental support in the cattle complex at this point, but sustained distance from last week's lows could spark additional buyer support through the cattle complex. Cash cattle activity remains dead in the water Monday morning, although this is not unexpected or unusual for this early in the week. Showlist distribution and inventory taking continues to be the focus through all areas of cattle country Monday, and it is likely that more interest may not develop until midweek or later. Asking prices are not established, but given the stability in cash cattle prices over the last several weeks, it is not expected that significant shifts develop in initial asking prices or bids seen later in the week. 

Monday morning's boxed beef prices are lower in moderate trade, with choice cuts $1.59 lower at $280.23 and selects down $0.92 at $262.19 on a total count of 77 loads. 

Dow Jones estimated Monday's cattle slaughter at 120,000, steady with a week ago and 5,000 more than year-ago levels.

FEEDER CATTLE

Friday's cattle on feed report lent some much-needed support to the cattle markets with cattle placements falling below pre-report estimates and the entire range of analyst projections. The focus last week seemed to dwell on the expectation of another bearish report, but the lack of this bearishness sparked triple-digit gains Monday morning. Although feeder cattle futures have pullback back from initial morning gains, prices are still trading $1 to $2.50 per cwt higher in most contract months. October futures are having a hard time finding buyer support Monday morning as trade volume remains extremely light and there appears to not be enough momentum in the near-term contract to regain recent pressure. The focus on November and January futures, which have quickly offset Friday's losses, could help to sustain follow-through buyer support across the complex. Although the lower placement numbers are bullish, this is still not enough change in market fundamentals or technical factors to abruptly change the overall tone of the market in the upcoming days. If current support can hold through the week, the potential to build on this momentum may help to set a recovery pattern for feeder cattle futures which tumbled over $13 per cwt over the past two months. The CME Feeder Cattle Index was priced at $155.11 for Oct. 21.

LEAN HOGS

Despite moderate price support trickling into spot December month lean hog contracts, the underlying tone of the market remains fragile at best. Last week, December lean hog futures fell $4.95 per cwt, with February contracts falling $4.70 per cwt. Front month futures have tumbled over $12 per cwt lower over the last month and continue to test long-term support set during early 2021. Even though significant price support developed in late September due to supply tightness, the growing concern through the pork complex is now resting on the uncertainty of sustaining and growing current pork demand. Demand support needs to be seen in both domestic and export markets through the next six months, which seems to be a concern to traders at this point. For the short term, trade is expected to remain mixed Monday with very little directional market shifts likely in the immediate future. This could easily keep prices holding in the current pattern through the rest of October. Wholesale pork prices firmed following aggressive gains in belly cuts, which rallied $23.35 per cwt Monday morning. This offset firm pressure in butt and picnic cuts. Cutouts are up $2.24 at $100.51 Monday morning on 157.76 loads. Negotiated hog prices are $0.59 lower at $63.64 per cwt on 4,842 head. The swine/pork market formula price is listed at $82.70 per cwt. Dow Jones estimated Monday's hog slaughter at 476,000, 1,000 more than a week ago, while 10,000 less than year ago levels. The CME Lean Hog Index is listed at $83.70 per cwt for Oct. 21.

Monday Morning Livestock Market Update - Cattle Futures Expected Higher

GENERAL COMMENTS:

Cattle futures fell sharply into the close as fear of a bearish Cattle on Feed report swept through the market. That fear was unfounded as the report may be considered somewhat friendly. Oct. 1 on feed numbers were 99% of last year slightly below the average traded estimate of 99.3%. Placements were 97% of a year ago compared to the average trade estimate of 101.4%. Marketings were 97% compared to the average trade estimate of 97.2%. The most striking aspect of the report is that placements were significantly lower than anticipated. Although cattle and calves on feed were 1% below a year ago, it was the second highest inventory for the October report since the series began in 1996. The report is expected to trigger buying interest from traders due to actual numbers versus estimates. Further support may be seen from higher boxed beef prices on Friday with choice up $1.16 and select up $0.39. Cash is expected to be quiet as usual for the beginning of the week.

Fundamentally, lean hogs do not have much to get excited about. Cash has been lower last week with Friday being the exception as price on the National Direct Afternoon report showed an increase of $0.20. Cutouts were down just $0.01 at $98.27. This certainly does not yet signal a change in market direction, but the magnitude of the decline last week puts the market in an oversold condition. It seems like the best the market has to offer is two price gaps in the charts that may be filled at some point. Both of these vary by month with nearby December gaps about $3 higher and $8 higher than the current level. This may not happen anytime soon, but they are technical points of interest.

	BULL SIDE		BEAR SIDE
1)	The Cattle on Feed report was friendly and should result in strong buying interest by traders.	1)	Even with higher prices expected as a result of the Cattle on Feed report, futures may only regain what was lost last week.
2)	The choppiness of boxed beef prices last week could signal the market may be establishing a bottom as prices may have found value.	2)	Packers are not expected to increase bids as they know there are market-ready cattle that need to come to the market. If feedlots hold out, weights will increase.
3)	Hog futures are oversold and ripe for a price retracement as the market may be overdone to the downside and nearing strong support.	3)	Packers are able to obtain sufficient hogs to meet demand without having to look very hard to find them.
4)	The market is working through heavy hog supplies with numbers expected to tighten over time.	4)	Hog futures may test chart support from mid-September, which is about $2 lower before technical traders may be comfortable buying into the market for the long term.

Friday Closing Livestock Market Update - Feedlot Placements Below Expected Levels

GENERAL COMMENTS:

From Friday to Friday, livestock futures scored the following changes: Oct live cattle off $1.87, Dec live cattle off $2.65, Oct feeder cattle off $2.15, Nov feeder cattle off $4.53, Dec lean hogs off $4.95 and Feb lean hogs off $4.70. Sharp losses in cattle futures developed as traders tried to prepare for the afternoon Cattle on Feed report. Triple-digit losses were seen in both live cattle and feeder cattle markets, with the most significant pressure in deferred feeder cattle trade. Hog futures were unevenly mixed as traders tried to stabilize the market following earlier-week losses. On-feed numbers were fractionally below estimated levels, although the major shift was seen in lower-than-expected cattle placement numbers. This is likely to spark early week support in all cattle trade Monday morning. Hog prices moved higher on the National Direct Afternoon Hog Report in moderate trade, adding $0.20 with a weighted average of $65.63 on 6,607 head. December corn is up 5 3/4 cents per bushel, and December soybean meal is up $3.40 per ton. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 73 points, and the NASDAQ is down 125 points.

LIVE CATTLE:

Cattle futures ended the day sharply lower following an attempt to create stability through the first half of the trading session. Triple-digit losses are seen in December through April futures. Markets closed before the USDA Cattle on Feed report was released, which could add significant market adjustments to the complex. Although overall on-feed numbers were only slightly changed from pre-report estimates, the significant shift lower in placement levels could have a positive effect on all cattle trade early next week. The last month is evidence that markets can move quickly and aggressively without a significant number of fundamental changes, which may lead to more volatility through the end of October. October live cattle closed $0.87 lower at $124.10, December live cattle closed $1.22 lower at $128.32 and February live cattle down $1.27 at $133.50. Cash cattle activity remained quiet at the end of the week with early week activity developing and setting the tone for the week. Although there could be some late cleanup deals reported late in the day, this is not expected to change the overall steady price structure seen over the past few days. Both sides are expected to carry additional cattle and needs into next week, looking for further directions on what could be a volatile shift in futures trade.

Friday's slaughter is estimated at 112,000 head -- 5,000 more than a week ago and 8,000 more than year ago totals.

Boxed beef prices closed higher: choice up $1.16 ($281.82) and select up $0.39 ($263.11) with a movement of 91 loads (52.02 loads of choice, 18.51 loads of select, 8.14 loads of trim and 12.38 loads of ground beef).

MONDAY'S CASH CATTLE CALL: Steady. Market activity is expected to remain quiet Monday morning as typical with asking prices and bids unavailable until later in the week.

FEEDER CATTLE:

Feeder cattle futures remained extremely weak the entire Friday trading session with triple-digit losses developing in all but spot October contracts. November through May futures posted losses of $2 to $2.50 per cwt as traders seemed focused on preparing for bad news from the afternoon Cattle on Feed report. The pre-report expectations pointed to placement levels of 101.4% of year-ago levels. The bad memory of how the September report left the market in a tailspin seemed to create further market pressure at the end of the week. When report totals were released, cattle placements were not only below expectations, but well below the overall range, with 97% placement levels seen in September. This is likely to create significant market volatility in the market as traders are likely to try to quickly catch up from the previous losses. The wide-moving and extreme shifts in feeder cattle trade over the last six weeks have created even more market volatility as traders are not only focusing on fundamental or technical market responses, but also trying to outmaneuver previous gains, leaving the market swinging higher and lower with little effort. October feeders closed $0.82 lower at $155.42, November feeders closed $2.17 lower at $156.90 and January futures closed $2.67 lower at $157.32. The CME feeder cattle index 10/21/2021: $155.11, up $1.08.

LEAN HOGS:

Lean hog futures closed mixed in a narrow to moderate trading range following light buying, which held prices higher through most of the Friday session. Traders focused on market positioning following aggressive losses through the week as the opportunity to take profits developed at the end of the week. The inability to hold February through July futures higher at closing bell will likely add further weakness to the market Monday morning. Traders continue to desperately search for support levels following a technically weak market shift over the past four sessions. Nearby lean hog futures remain above long-term support levels set in September, but these levels are certainly not out of reach, given the aggressive pressure that has developed in hog trade over the last couple of days. December lean hogs closed $0.12 higher at $73.32, February lean hogs closed $0.05 lower at $76.62, and April lean hog futures closed 0.25 lower at $80.87. Pork prices remained generally stable following mixed prices in a wide market range Friday afternoon. Pork cutouts totaled 381.40 loads with 337.90 loads of pork cutouts and 43.50 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: down $0.01, $98.27. Friday's slaughter is estimated at 476,000 head -- 6,000 higher than a week ago and 11,000 lower than a year ago. The CME lean hog index 10/21/2021: down $1.13, $83.70.

MONDAY'S CASH HOG CALL: Steady to $1 lower. Aggressive pressure in futures trade is expected to spill through the cash markets over the next week. This could lead to additional weakness for late October cash sales.

Friday Midday Livestock Market Update - Feeder Cattle Losses Headline Trade

GENERAL COMMENTS:

Cattle futures continue to show increased price pressure with feeder contracts leading the market lower Friday morning. The lack of support in all cattle futures has added to weakness in live cattle trade. February futures are holding a $1 per cwt loss, while other nearby contracts are also trading close to these ranges. Limited gains are seen in hog futures as traders focus more on covering positions following Thursday's abrupt moves lower rather than any significant directional change in prices. December corn is up 3 1/4 cents per bushel and December soybean meal is up $1.30 per ton. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 38 points with Nasdaq down 175 points.

LIVE CATTLE:

Live cattle futures trade has eroded through the Friday session. Following pressure Thursday, trade started generally weak with limited interest seen in all contracts. But the combined pressure in feeder cattle futures and follow-through selling pushed nearby contracts nearly $1 per cwt lower at midday. Live cattle futures are well above support levels at this point, but traders remain very cautious going into the Cattle on Feed report Friday afternoon. Because of the significant market reactions following last month's report, traders seem to be less confident with early analyst projections of on-feed numbers. This could allow for active pressure all session.

Cash cattle trade remains quiet Friday morning. Deals already done through the week were steady with both last week and other days this week at $124 live and $196 dressed. The focus on the upcoming Cattle on Feed report could limit additional trade before the report is released. But depending on how the report turns out, it is very possible both sides could wait until next week. Given the generally light trade over the past few days, packers are expected to want more cattle heading into the weekend, but it wouldn't be the first time packers end the week short-bought. 

Friday morning's boxed beef prices are higher in light trade, with choice cuts $0.98 higher at $281.64 and selects up $0.67 at $263.39 on a total count of 54 loads. 

Dow Jones estimated Friday's cattle slaughter at 118,000 -- steady with a week ago and 2,000 more than year ago levels.

FEEDER CATTLE:

Losses have swept through feeder cattle futures Friday morning. Although earlier losses in live cattle contracts seemed to be tempered in the feeder cattle market Thursday, traders seemed to lose all sense of short-term support Friday morning. October futures remain very lightly traded with light to moderate losses, but the rest of the complex is holding triple-digit losses late morning. Lack of building support in any sector of the cattle market through the week and uncertainty in front of the Cattle on Feed report is encouraging traders to take even more protection. This is likely to keep prices under significant pressure through the end of the session Friday. Analyst expectations for this afternoon's cattle placements are at 101.4% year ago levels with a range of 98.8% to 103.3%. The potential that there could be some significant volatility in these numbers has traders taking protection ahead of the report release. The CME Feeder Index was priced at $155.11 for Oct. 20.

LEAN HOGS:

Lean hog prices bounced moderately higher following aggressive triple-digit losses Thursday. The late-week gains in the hog market are consistent, but still are showing no indication of correcting the weak market structure seen over the last few days. End-of-week position adjustments are likely the focus of the most recent gains with nearby contracts limiting price rallies to 40 to 50 cents per cwt through the morning. Trade volume is also generally light with most of the livestock complex focused on cattle markets and the afternoon release of the Cattle on Feed report. Trade early next week will focus on the ability to sustain price support in nearby contracts, which could draw additional buyers through the end of October. Wholesale pork prices surged higher once again with ham cuts posting a $18.73 per cwt rally. Cutouts are up $4.10 at $102.38 Friday morning on 286.07 loads. Negotiated hog prices are $0.96 lower at $64.23 per cwt on 4,207 head. The swine/pork market formula price is listed at $81.77 per cwt. Dow Jones estimated Friday's hog slaughter at 475,000 -- 1,000 more than a week ago and 12,000 less than year ago levels. The CME Lean Hog Index is listed at $83.70 per cwt for Oct. 21.

Friday Morning Livestock Market Update - Further Positioning Expected Ahead of the Report

GENERAL COMMENTS:

Once selling pressure became more active, it permeated throughout much of the cattle complex, pushing futures below the recent trading range in live cattle. Much of the trading was likely due to traders positioning themselves ahead of the Cattle on Feed report to be released after the close of trading Friday. Traders estimate On Feed numbers at 99.4% of last year. Placements at 101.4% and Marketings at 97.5%. Cash cattle activity was light and generally confined to the North at steady money with last week. That seems to be the best that can be expected as the tone had been set on Wednesday and packers see no need to pay more for cattle that are readily available. Boxed beef prices were mixed with choice up $0.63 and select down $0.08.

Hogs could not find support once selling pressure erupted. The disappointment of cash not finding support through this week was just too much for the market to maintain early week prices. Futures broke significantly with the potential of futures to move back to the lows of mid-September. Even at these lower prices, demand has not really increased significantly. The disappointment of exports Thursday added some pressure as lower sales will mean more pork available to the domestic market. The National Direct Afternoon Hog report showed cash down $1.50. This was offset to some extent by the increase in cutouts of $1.41. Saturday slaughter is estimated at 225,000 head.

	BULL SIDE		BEAR SIDE
1)	The Cattle on Feed report could show a surprise in numbers, which would cause traders to react positively.	1)	Even if cattle on feed numbers come in as expected, it will still be the second largest number on record, leaving a lot of beef available to the market.
2)	Steady cash and choppy boxed beef may indicate the beef market may have finally found support.	2)	December and February live cattle futures maintain a significant premium over cash that may be difficult to maintain with current market projections.y.
3)	Liquidation generally runs its course in two to three days. Friday is day three so hog futures could uncover some trader buying interest.	3)	Hog futures look to be heading to retest support from mid-September, indicating further weakness may take place.
4)	The industry is working through the number of hogs readily available to the market with numbers expected to tighten by the end of the year.	4)	Hog numbers still are large and may remain that way through the end of the year before supply will tighten and demand improve.

Thursday Closing Livestock Market Update - Weakness Develops in Futures

GENERAL COMMENTS:

Sharp losses developed in live cattle and lean hog futures Thursday afternoon. Following a move below initial support prices in nearby hog trade Wednesday, active market liquidation developed, pushing nearby prices another $2 to $3 per cwt lower through the Thursday session. Live cattle losses didn't match the pressure of hog trade, but still worked lower the session. Hog prices moved lower on the National Direct Afternoon Hog Report in moderate trade, falling $1.50 with a weighted average of $65.43 on 7,858 head. December corn is down 9 cents per bushel and December soybean meal is down $4.40 per ton. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 6 points and NASDAQ is up 94 points.

LIVE CATTLE:

Cattle futures backed away from previous gains as traders focused on the aggressive pressure in outside markets. With grain markets showing significant losses, as well as widespread liquidation in lean hog trade, the focus Thursday seemed to be based on protection taking measures. Given the recent support in live cattle futures, prices are hovering in the top one-third of the market range, but the inability to keep October futures above $125 per cwt and December contracts at $130 per cwt or higher has become a difficult task. Even though this is not where market technical resistance is, there remains significant psychological resistance at these price levels. It is the hope that a bullish cattle on feed report would help to break these mental barriers in all nearby contracts. October live cattle closed $0.97 lower at $124.97, December live cattle closed $0.97 lower at $129.55 and February live cattle down $0.82 at $134.77. Cash cattle markets were quiet through most of the day, although limited deals were reported in the North through the second half of the day. Prices remain steady with midweek trade and last week's market average, as live cattle in most areas have traded at $124 per cwt, while dressed deals are at $196 per cwt. Some clean up activity may develop Friday, but for the most part, cash markets appear to be essentially done for the week. The Special Fed Cattle Exchange Auction held Thursday listed a total of 2,430 head (Texas 1,284 head; Kansas 756 head; Nebraska 138 head; South Dakota 252 head), of which none actually sold. Reserve prices ranged from $121 to $126. Opening prices ranged from $119 to $122, high bids ranged from $121 to $124.25.

Thursday's slaughter is estimated at 120,000 head, 1,000 more than a week ago and 2,000 more than year ago totals.

Boxed beef prices closed mixed: choice up $0.63 ($280.66) and select down $0.08 ($262.72) with a movement of 158 loads (97.13 loads of choice, 21.04 loads of select, 10.97 loads of trim and 29.20 loads of ground beef).

FRIDAY'S CASH CATTLE CALL: Steady. Following light to moderate cash trade Wednesday and additional trade in the North Thursday afternoon at steady money, it is expected that the tone for the market has already been set. Some clean-up activity may develop Friday, but most parties appear to be willing to hold any additional needs or cattle until next week.

FEEDER CATTLE:

Feeder cattle trade was the most stable of all livestock markets with prices mixed within a narrow to moderate trading range Thursday afternoon. Traders seem to have adjusted positions in front of the upcoming cattle on feed report Friday afternoon, but there still may be some market shifts developing Friday morning. October and deferred futures trickled higher, while November through April contracts quickly reacted to pressure in live cattle trade. The pullback in corn prices was not enough to offset active live cattle market losses Thursday. Traders continue to look for a slight increase in placements from last year's numbers, but a major shift from these levels could bring about significant price adjustments next week. October feeders closed $0.32 higher at $156.25, November feeders closed $0.27 lower at $159.07 and January futures closed $0.47 lower at $160.00. The CME Feeder Cattle Index for Oct. 19: $154.03, down $0.07.

LEAN HOGS:

Sharp triple-digit losses flooded into lean hog futures trade, as traders hit the panic button following a break below short=term support Wednesday. The overall lack of new buying from China in the morning export sales report sparked additional market uncertainty as traders remain very concerned about the ability to sustain and improve pork demand over the upcoming months. All contracts through May 2022 posted losses between $2 and $3 per cwt, causing further market pressure through the complex. Longer term support in spot month December contracts remains just above $72 per cwt. With current prices just $1 per above this support level, the potential for markets to add further technical weakness in the upcoming days is becoming more realistic. The trade's attention has totally moved away from tight supply issue seen late September, with traders consumed with pork demand uncertainty. December lean hogs closed $2.85 lower at $73.20, February lean hogs closed $2.55 lower at $76.67, and April lean hog futures closed $2.30 lower at $81.12. Pork prices shifted higher following double-digit gains in belly prices. Pork cutouts totaled 291.68 loads with 259.68 loads of pork cutouts and 32.00 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: up $1.41, $98.28. Thursday's slaughter is estimated at 479,000 head, 2,000 higher than a week ago and 8,000 lower than a year ago. The CME Lean Hog Index for Oct. 20: down $1.06, $84.83.

FRIDAY'S CASH HOG CALL: Steady to $1 lower. Aggressive pressure in futures trade is expected to spill through the cash markets over the next week. This could lead to additional weakness for late October cash sales