Friday Closing Livestock Market Update - Last Week of 2023 Was Fruitful for Cattle

GENERAL COMMENTS

The livestock complex didn't see much support throughout Friday's market as traders longed for the three-day weekend ahead of them. The cash cattle market did see some more trade, for mostly steady prices with the week's trend. Hog prices closed lower on the Daily Direct Afternoon Hog Report, down $0.32 with a weighted average of $74.98 on 4,702 head. March corn is down 1 cent per bushel and March soybean meal is up $12.50. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 73.55 points.

Friday to Friday, livestock futures scored the following changes: December live cattle down $2.07, February live cattle up $0.15; January feeders cattle down $0.30, March feeder cattle down $0.53; February lean hogs down $0.13, April lean hogs down $0.08; March corn up $0.12, May corn up $0.13.

LIVE CATTLE:

The live cattle complex closed in the same damper fashion that the rest of the livestock contracts faced, but that shouldn't belittle the wild success that the market accomplished throughout this holiday-shortened week. From exceptionally higher boxed beef prices to the fact that Northern feedlots were able to advance their market $3.00 to $5.00 higher -- the live cattle complex rounded out 2022 with a bang! It will be interesting to see what packers do in the first few weeks of 2023 and what pace they run processing speeds at. These strong box prices will incentivize them to run fast chain speeds, but they'll do so cautiously as that also means that they'll have to procure cattle out of the cash sector. February live cattle closed $0.95 lower at $157.90, April live cattle closed $0.65 lower at $161.80 and June live cattle closed $0.32 lower at $157.82. There was another light movement of cattle traded throughout Friday's market with Southern live cattle trading for $157 which is steady with Thursday's business, but Northern dressed cattle sold for $252 which is steady too somewhat lower than Thursday's trade. Throughout the week most Northern deals were marked from $248 to $255, but mostly at $252 to $254, which is $3.00 to $5.00 higher than last week's weighted average. Most Southern cash cattle trade sold for $157, which is $1.00 stronger than last week's weighted average.

Friday's slaughter is estimated at 122,000 head, 18,000 head more than a week ago and incomparable to a year ago. Saturday's slaughter is projected to be around 37,000 head. This week's slaughter is estimated at 547,000 head -- that's 15,000 head less than a week ago and 23,000 head more than a week ago.

Beef net sales of 2,300 mt were reported for Japan (1,800 mt), South Korea (1,700 mt) and Mexico (200 mt).

Boxed beef prices closed higher: choice up $3.12 ($281.98) and select up $0.23 ($250.93) with a movement of 66 loads (46.78 loads of choice, 7.20 loads of select, 2.80 loads of trim and 9.58 loads of ground beef). The choice/select spread sits at $31.05. Throughout the week choice cuts averaged $280.07 (up $13.89 from last week) and select cuts averaged $248.64 (up $9.43 from last week) with a total movement of 347 loads of cuts, grinds and trim. Throughout the week the choice/select spread averaged $31.43.

TUESDAY'S CATTLE CALL: Higher. With boxed beef prices as high as they are, packers will want to sell as much product as possible, which pushes them to support the cash cattle market.

FEEDER CATTLE:

The feeder cattle complex closed lower ahead of Friday's last call, but that was a common trend for the day throughout the cattle complex. Traders had seen ample fundamental support throughout the week to keep the market trading higher if they so desired (strong boxed beef prices, higher cash cattle trade, and Friday's corn market closed lower too), but with the three-day weekend lingering before them, traders grew less and less worried about participating in the market ahead of the week's end and ultimately let the feeder cattle contracts drift lower to round out the week. It will be extremely interesting to see how feeder cattle sell next week throughout the countryside as most sale barns haven't had a sale over the last two weeks, and since their last sale, the market has gained an even more substantial foothold in its strong fundamental position. So long as the corn market doesn't soar higher, feeders could be met with fiery demand next week. January feeders closed $0.10 lower at $183.70, March feeders closed $0.55 lower at $186.22 and April feeders closed $0.52 lower at $189.62. The CME Feeder Cattle Index for Dec. 29: up $2.09, $181.93.

LEAN HOGS:

By Friday's close, the lean hog complex saw a slightly lower demise in its nearby contracts while the deferred months were able to keep their position mildly elevated. The biggest hinderance to the lean hog market right now is the sheer fact that traders aren't seeing the fundamental support necessary to support higher trade technically. Neither the cash market nor cutout values saw hardly any support this week, but maybe after the first of the year as supplies tighten in 2023 the circumstance could change. February lean hogs closed $0.97 lower at $87.70, April lean hogs closed $0.40 lower at $95.30 and June lean hogs closed $0.52 higher at $109.17. Pork cutouts totaled 262.59 loads with 243.01 loads of pork cuts and 19.59 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: up $0.02, $87.90. The CME Lean Hog Index for Dec. 28: up $0.05, $80.74.

Friday's slaughter is estimated at 477,000 head, 368,000 head more than a week ago and incomparable to a year ago. Saturday's slaughter is projected to be around 244,000 head. Thursday's slaughter was revised to 480,000 head.

Pork net sales of 15,100 mt for 2022 were primarily for Mexico (9,100 mt), Canada (1,600 mt) and China (1,600 mt).

TUESDAY'S HOG CALL: Steady. Packers won't likely come out in Tuesday's market overly aggressive but come Wednesday, the market could see higher trade.

Friday Midday Livestock Market Summary - Hesitancy Creeps Into the Complex Ahead of the Noon Hour

GENERAL COMMENTS:

The livestock complex is quiet heading into Friday's noon hour as traders eye the three-day weekend ahead of us and aren't paying the livestock contracts much attention. Some more cash cattle trade will likely happen Friday afternoon, as packers need to replenish their inventories. March corn is down 1/4 cent per bushel and March soybean meal is up $14.00. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 181.73 points.

LIVE CATTLE:

The positive nature of the live cattle complex hasn't changed even though the futures market isn't necessarily representing the momentum that the market possessed earlier in the week. Traders are chomping at the bit for some worthwhile news to make trade decisions, and even more than that, they're looking forward to the three-day weekend that lays ahead of us. The South has traded a handful of cattle Friday morning for $157, which is fully steady with Thursday's business, but still $1.00 higher than last week. Some trade was reported in the North yesterday for $254 to $255, which is $5.00 to $6.00 higher than last week's weighted average. More trade is likely to develop ahead of the day's end as packers bought limited supplies last week and will need more inventory in the upcoming weeks if they're going to run semi-normal processing speeds. February live cattle are down $0.52 at $158.35, April live cattle are down $0.42 at $162.02 and June live cattle are down $0.25 at $157.90.

Beef net sales of 2,300 mt were reported for Japan (1,800 mt), South Korea (1,700 mt) and Mexico (200 mt).

Boxed beef prices are higher: choice up $3.19 ($282.05) and select up $1.63 ($252.33) with a movement of 44 loads (34.55 loads of choice, 4.57 loads of select, zero loads of trim and 4.72 loads of ground beef).

FEEDER CATTLE:

The feeder cattle complex is continuing to chop sideways as the market longs to see the live cattle market trade higher again before it will advance its own market. The corn complex isn't posing much of a threat at midday as its market is trading mostly steady, but more than anything the market seems to watching time pass by before the last bell of the day rings and we again waltz into a three day weekend. Come next week the feeder cattle market could see enough support through strong sales in the countryside as most sale barns will be back to their normal schedule. And with the advancement that's been made in the cash cattle market and the strong demand that boxed beef prices are seeing -- cattle buyers could be aggressive early next week as they see the market's fundamentals strengthening. January feeders are down $0.57 at $183.22, March feeders are down $0.90 at $185.87 and April feeders are down $0.70 t $189.45.

LEAN HOGS:

Traders are supporting the lean hog complex more than any other livestock market right now, but even so, the nearby contracts aren't seeing the support that the deferred months are. February lean hogs down $0.85 at $87.85, April lean hogs are down $0.27 at $95.42 and June lean hogs are up $0.57 at $109.22. It's unlikely that the market sees much interest arise ahead of closing as neither the cash market nor pork cutouts have seen much interest at all this week. Hopefully, after the New Year holiday, the market begins to see better fundamental demand.

The projected lean hog index for Dec. 29 is down $0.55 at $80.19, and the actual index for Dec. 28 is up $0.05 at $80.74. Hog prices are lower on the Daily Direct Morning Hog Report, down $0.76 with a weighted average of $75.11, ranging from $75.00 to $78.00 on 4,500 head and a five-day rolling average of $76.91. Pork cutouts total 182.04 loads with 172.46 loads of pork cuts and 9.58 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: up $2.60, $90.48.

Pork net sales of 15,100 mt for 2022 were primarily for Mexico (9,100 mt), Canada (1,600 mt) and China (1,600 mt).

U.S. Beef Exports to East Asia on a Record Pace

The USDA’s Foreign Agricultural Service released a report titled “U.S. Beef Exports to East Asia on a Record Pace.” Despite economic uncertainties brought on by COVID, continued global supply chain challenges, and a competitive global beef market, American exports to East Asia were outstanding in the first half of 2022 in terms of value and volume. The report says, “During the first three quarters of 2022, U.S. beef exports to East Asia, including Korea, Japan, China/Hong Kong, and Taiwan, were a record $6.6 billion.” That’s a 22 percent increase on a value basis from last year’s exports worth $5.4 billion. “On a volume basis, the exports were up 6.4 percent,” the report says. “Despite surging food prices in recent months, higher-volume shipments indicate a continued demand for beef products.” It also shows that East Asia’s relatively stable middle class has high disposable income and is willing to absorb the rising costs.

Friday Morning Livestock Market Update - Mixed Activity Due to End of Year Positioning

GENERAL COMMENTS:

Cash business was light with much of the business pushed off until Friday. Packers and feedlots are holding with feedlots wanting more while packers want to hold the line. Some cattle in the South traded higher at an average of $158.31 for over 80% choice. Northern dressed averaged $248.67 delivered. The rest of the business will be done Friday with packers likely not purchasing very many for future delivery. Boxed beef was mixed with choice down $0.55 and select up $3.42. This is the final day to trade the December live cattle contract, which has made an impressing run higher over the past three weeks. February will take over as front month on Tuesday nearly at the same price where December will end. Markets will be closed Monday.

Hog futures have seen a lot of spread trading this week with nearby months and later months flipping back and forth nearly every day. The pressure was in February again Thursday as traders seem to realize it is carrying a significant premium to cash. The lean hog index did show a nice increase of $2.09, bringing it to $80.69. However, cash was lower on the National Direct Afternoon report with a decline of $0.70 with cutouts down $0.79. There could be more unwinding of spreads Friday before trading may settle down to mixed activity ahead of the three-day weekend. Saturday slaughter is estimated at 255,000 head.

	BULL SIDE		BEAR SIDE
1)	New contract highs across live cattle futures continue to build traders' confidence of higher prices.	1)	Ongoing strong beef demand is questionable moving into the new year. Consumers are grappling with high food prices.
2)	Feedlots have been able to achieve higher prices for their cattle over the past few weeks as packers have been running strong slaughter speeds and have had to pay up to get what they need..	2)	Traders may liquidate some of their long positions before the end of the year to settle out the books. This could pressure the market.
3)	Hog futures have been able to maintain an uptrend as the supply of hogs is expected to tighten into the summer months.	3)	February hogs still have a large premium to cash, which could limit upside potential and further unwinding of spreads Friday.
4)	Slaughter has remained strong even though cutouts have floundered. Lighter hog weights require more animals to achieve the same tonnage.	4)	Lower cash and lower cutouts do not provide support for continued strength in hog futures. This could pressure the market further Friday.

Thursday Midday Livestock Market Summary - Feedlots Again Go Toe to Toe With Packers

GENERAL COMMENTS:

The livestock complex is trading mostly higher into Thursday's afternoon as the traders are actively participating in today's market. The cash cattle market has yet to see cattle trade and it's not unlikely that trade waits until sometime Friday to develop. March corn is down 3 1/2 cents per bushel and March soybean meal is down $2.80. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 397.65 points.

LIVE CATTLE:

Up, up and away goes the live cattle complex as most of the nearby contracts stretch themselves to new contract highs. The excellent demand in the boxed beef sector has given traders all the confidence they've needed to push the contracts higher yet again and it's also giving feedlots the support they needed in order to demand stronger cash prices. Bids of $154 are being offered in Texas, and bids of $248 to $249 are being offered in Nebraska. Both bids are a long way away from feedlots' asking prices as Southern feedlots wan $158 and Northern feedlots want $256. With feedlots going toe to toe with packers again this week, and demanding higher prices before they'll pull the plug and trade cattle, it's not unlikely that the week's business waits to develop until Friday sometime. February live cattle are up $1.15 at $158.95, April live cattle are up $0.77 at $162.55 and June live cattle are up $0.37 at $158.32.

Boxed beef prices are mixed: choice down $0.34 ($279.07) and select up $2.30 ($249.58) with a movement of 71 loads (44.53 loads of choice, 9.86 loads of select, 6.48 loads of trim and 9.95 loads of ground beef).

FEEDER CATTLE:

Thursday has come as a breath of fresh air for the feeder cattle complex as the market warmly welcomes the onset of lower corn prices and cheering feedlots on in their quest for higher prices again this week. January feeders are up $0.42 at $183.90, March feeders are up $0.62 at $186.82 and April feeders are up $0.55 at $190.05. At this point, the market will likely close higher with the added support of both the live cattle and cash cattle markets.

LEAN HOGS:

The nearby lean hog contracts are keeping with their slightly lower chop while the deferred contracts continue to break higher. The nearby market is longing for fundamental support, while the deferred contracts can trade higher as they're banking on the promise that supplies will be thinner in 2023. Unfortunately, with packers still not showing the market much interest, it's likely that this week's cash hog market will be another dud and that packers aren't going to aggressively buy until after the New Year. February lean hogs are down $1.20 at $89.60, April lean hogs are down $0.25 at $96.32 and June lean hogs are up $0.42 at $109.30.

The projected lean hog index for Dec. 28 is up $0.05 at $80.74, and the actual index for Dec. 27 is up $2.09 at $80.69. Hog prices are lower on the Daily Direct Morning Hog Report, down $1.55 with a weighted average of $75.87, ranging from $69.00 to $80.00 on 6,250 head and a five-day rolling average of $77.34. Pork cutouts total 142.90 loads with 114.36 loads of pork cuts and 28.55 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: down $0.80, $87.87.

Thursday Morning Livestock Market Update - Traders Await Cash Activity

GENERAL COMMENTS:

It is surprising that live cattle have been slowly moving higher due to a strong anticipation of higher cash again this week. Some of it might be due to end-of-year positioning by traders. Traders are factoring in higher cash but are not getting overly exuberant over it. Boxed beef has settled down with mixed prices Wednesday. Choice was down $0.63 while select gained $1.64. Slaughter pace continues to remain strong, which should result in packers stepping up to begin trading Thursday and likely at higher prices as feedlots will remain resolved to get more for their cattle.

Hog futures traded mixed with February posting the greatest loss. However, it held well despite continued lower cash. The National Direct Afternoon Hog report was $1.80 lower with a weighted average of $76.00. With the index at $78.60, there is a huge premium being carried by the February contract. Of course, there is time to trade this contract, and much can happen. Slaughter remains strong even though cutouts are struggling. Cash has not yet traded higher this week and may not if supplies remain readily available. Hog weights declined 2.2 pounds last week, indicating marketings are current. Weights are 7.6 pounds below a year ago, which is considered supportive. Saturday slaughter is estimated at 225,000 head.

	BULL SIDE		BEAR SIDE
1)	Live cattle futures have been slowly creeping higher in anticipation of stronger cash. If it is realized, traders may add more premium to futures.	1)	Cattle futures are over-bought, which could trigger some liquidation through the end of the year.
2)	Feedlots are in a strong position due to strong slaughter pace and the strength of boxed beef this week. They will hold for higher cash.	2)	December live cattle stop trading Friday with February and later contacts showing little premium in the market for much of next year.
3)	Hog futures are defying gravity as traders anticipate stronger prices as time moves forward. Weaker cash and cutouts had little negative impact.	3)	Hogs hold a large premium to cash, which may not be sustainable for much longer.
4)	Hog weights are declining, which is unusual during this time of year. Weights declined 2.2 pounds last week and are 7.6 pounds below a year ago.	4)	Packers continue to obtain the hogs they need without having to be very aggressive. Supply is readily available to the market.

Wednesday Closing Livestock Market Update - Traders Support the Contracts

GENERAL COMMENTS

It was a mostly supportive day for the livestock complex as traders are eager to trade the contracts higher, but they do want to see more fundamental support. The cash cattle market is expected to see more interest come Thursday, and prices are expected to be higher. Hog prices closed lower on the Daily Direct Afternoon Hog Report, down $1.80 with a weighted average of $76.00 on 9,002 head. March corn is up 8 cents per bushel and March soybean meal is up $13.50. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 365.85 points.

LIVE CATTLE:

The cash cattle market closed higher in nearly all of its contracts, besides the February 2023 and April 2023 contracts. The market seems to be chomping at the bit, ready to bust higher after the New Year, but the early contracts of 2023 seem to be uninterested or unresponsive with the market's strong fundamental footing. It's encouraging to see both today's and yesterday's slaughter as aggressive as they are as keeping showlists current will help feedlots maintain leverage in the early half of the upcoming year. February live cattle closed $0.07 lower at $157.80, April live cattle closed $0.05 lower at $161.77 and June live cattle closed $0.27 higher at $157.95. The cash cattle market didn't see any interest throughout the day as packers are rolling their eyes with disgust that feedlots are again wanting higher prices. Prices are expected to higher come Thursday when the cash market does begin to trade. Asking prices in the South are noted at $158 and in the North at $256. 

Wednesday's slaughter is estimated at 128,000 head, 6,000 head more than a week ago and 10,000 head more than a year ago.

Boxed beef prices closed mixed: choice down $0.63 ($279.41) and select up $1.64 ($247.28) with a movement of 102 loads (52.74 loads of choice, 22.43 loads of select, 9.26 loads of trim and 17.20 loads of ground beef). The choice/select spread sits at $32.13.

THURSDAY'S CATTLE CALL: $1.00 to $2.00 higher. With feedlots current and packers wanting to run vigorous chain speeds to ensure they can sell product at these high box prices; they'll likely support this week's cash market.

FEEDER CATTLE:

The feeder cattle complex had a bit of a rebounding day as the market was able to close 5 to 92 points higher amid a corn complex which pushed its nearby contracts $0.06 to $0.08 higher. The market felt the ramification of Friday's mixed message in placements throughout Tuesday's market, but given all the bullish factors illuminating the cattle market, feeders didn't want to trade lower two days in a row. January feeders closed $0.37 higher at $183.47, March feeders closed $0.80 higher at $186.20 and April feeders closed $0.37 higher at $189.50. So long as the cash cattle market does indeed trade higher tomorrow, the feeder cattle complex should be able to maintain its higher front, so long as the corn market doesn't jolt higher. The CME Feeder Cattle Index for Dec. 27: up $0.35, $176.08.

LEAN HOGS:

The lean hog complex closed mixed as it fought some internal warfare as the market desperately wants to continue to trade higher, but traders equally want to see support from the market's fundamentals. February lean hogs closed $0.67 lower at $90.80, April lean hogs closed $0.12 higher at $96.57 and June lean hogs closed down $0.05 lower at $108.87. The cash hog market saw lower prices yet again reported Wednesday afternoon, and the day's volume wasn't anything to get excited over. With packers having ample supplies in cold storage, their need to chase the cash market is extremely limited. Pork cutout values also closed lower with the belly seeing the biggest day over day decline as it fell $9.83 lower. Pork cutouts total 340.89 loads with 309.69 loads of pork cuts and 31.20 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: down $2.25, $88.67. Wednesday's slaughter is estimated at 490,000 head - 40,000 head more than a week ago and 17,000 head more than a year ago. Tuesday's hog slaughter was revised to 482,000 head. The CME Lean Hog Index for Dec. 26: down $0.14, $78.60.

THURSDAY'S HOG CALL: Somewhat higher. Packers have been lackadaisical all week in the cash market. They'll either get slightly more aggressive in Thursday's market or wait until after the New Year to really procure hogs.

Wednesday Midday Livestock Market Summary - Traders Need Reassurance From Fundamentals

GENERAL COMMENTS:

The livestock complex is trading mixed into Wednesday's afternoon as traders long to see support from the market's fundamentals. The cash cattle market hasn't seen any interest yet, but bids could begin to develop either Wednesday afternoon or early Thursday. March corn is up 5 1/2 cents per bushel and March soybean meal is up $13.00. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 258.89 points.

LIVE CATTLE:

The live cattle complex is modestly trading higher as the market yearns for direction from the cash cattle sector. It's incredibly helpful for feedlots to continue to see the support in the boxed beef sector, as it adds to packers' profitably and will likely entice them to run faster chain speeds while these high prices remain and consequently push them into buying cattle in the cash market. No bids have surfaced yet in the market and given that packers know that feedlots in both the North and the South want more money than last week -- trade will likely wait to develop until Thursday. Asking prices are noted at $158-plus in the South and $256 in the North. February live cattle are down $0.15 at $157.72, April live cattle are down $0.12 at $161.70 and June live cattle are up $0.15 at $157.82.

Boxed beef prices are mixed: choice down $0.15 ($279.89) and select up $1.88 ($247.52) with a movement of 62 loads (28.81 loads of choice, 16.41 loads of select, 3.07 loads of trim and 14.08 loads of ground beef).

FEEDER CATTLE:

Even though the corn complex is fronting another modest rally through Wednesday's market, feeders are trending higher as they are hopeful that the cash cattle market will again see higher trade. January feeders are up $0.32 at $183.42, March feeders are up $0.42 at $185.82 and April feeders are up $0.05 at $189.17. The market will likely continue this steady sideways chop well through the first of the year until sale barns resume their normal schedule and demand for calves and feeders can help influence the market. The feeder cattle complex will be closely monitoring both cash cattle prices in the hopes that they turn higher and corn prices as any uptick in price affects feeder's cost of gains gravely.

LEAN HOGS:

After rallying throughout Tuesday's hours, the lean hog complex is taking a more cautious approach through Wednesday's market. Traders were elated to finally be given the chance to trade the exciting nature of the latest Hogs and Pigs report, but now that the USDA report is somewhat old news, traders are looking to the market's fundamentals to either encourage their upward trail. With the cash hog market still not seeing much interest and pork cutout values lower, traders are simply letting the complex trade sideways as they yearn to advance the market but need the go-ahead from the market's fundamentals before they can do much more. February lean hogs are down $0.37 at $91.10, April lean hogs are down $0.20 at $96.25 and June lean hogs are down $0.37 at $108.55.

The projected lean hog index for Dec. 24 is up $2.09 at $80.69, and the actual index for Dec. 23 is down $0.14 at $78.60. Hog prices are lower on the Daily Direct Morning Hog Report, down $1.01 with a weighted average of $77.42, ranging from $72.00 to $80.00 on 4,867 head and a five-day rolling average of $78.30. Pork cutouts total 204.82 loads with 186.66 loads of pork cuts and 18.16 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: down $0.08, $90.84.

Wednesday Morning Livestock Market Update - Hog Spreads May Unwind

GENERAL COMMENTS:

Live cattle futures just could not find either aggressive buying or selling Tuesday leaving the market neutral. Even though boxed beef prices were higher, traders seem focused on waiting for cash again. Even though there is a strong chance for higher cash, traders remained cautious due to the holiday week. Boxed beef showed an incredible gain in choice cuts of $8.09 while select increased $0.17. Feedlots will hold out again as they anticipate packers will need to be aggressive as they do not have many contracted ahead for this week. Feeder cattle were under pressure due to the somewhat bearish placement number of the Cattle on Feed report and due to higher corn prices. Futures may have a difficult time maintaining upward momentum this week. The Commitment of Traders report showed funds increasing their long positions by 213 contracts, bringing their net-long positions to 67,127 futures contracts.

Hogs traded the strong cutouts of Friday, the Hogs & Pigs report and strong spread trading interest. The strength in nearby February was somewhat of a surprise as futures are nearly $13.00 above the lean hog index. Friday's report showed lower hog supplies in 2023, but that has been circulating in the market for some time. With hogs kept for breeding a little higher than the trade expected, upward price potential may be limited unless demand increases both domestically and internationally. Cutouts took a step back Tuesday, declining $1.14 and may have a negative impact on trading Wednesday. The Commitment of Traders report showed funds reducing their long positions 2,920 contracts, bringing their net-long positions to 34,762 futures contracts.

	BULL SIDE		BEAR SIDE
1)	Packers likely need more cattle and may need to pay more for them as feedlots will again hold out.	1)	Packers want to see their margins improve and will not want to pay any more for cattle this week, even if it means they will be moving into the first week of 2023 light on supplies.
2)	Strong gains in choice boxed beef are improving packers' margins which may have them more aggressive in the cash market to capitalize on strong demand.	2)	Higher placements on the report Friday may limit upside potential for deferred contracts.
3)	April and later hog futures moved to new contract highs again Tuesday. Traders remain optimistic, supported by Friday's report.	3)	February hog futures have a large premium over cash that may not be sustainable.
4)	Cash is expected higher Wednesday as packers need to procure more hogs due to the lower numbers purchased last week. Slaughter pace remains strong.	4)	Hog futures could not hold the highs Tuesday, which may trigger liquidation and positioning before the end of the year.

Tuesday Closing Livestock Market Update - Choice Cuts Close Over $8.00 Higher

GENERAL COMMENTS

It was a mixed day for the cattle market as feeders traded lower as the corn market posed a modest rally, but the live cattle market was able to close mostly higher as the market focused on sharp gains in the boxed beef department. Meanwhile, the lean hog complex had no issue trading higher throughout the day as traders were finally given the chance to trade Friday's exciting Quarterly Hogs and Pigs report. Hog prices averaged $77.80 on the Daily Direct Afternoon Hog Report, with selling 9,889 head and the five-day rolling average now sitting at $78.43. March corn is up 8 1/2 cents per bushel and March soybean meal is down $3.50. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 37.63 points.

LIVE CATTLE:

The live cattle complex traded mixed throughout Tuesday's market as traders were to keep with last week's upward momentum, but given the jump in boxed beef prices, traders came around to supporting the complex again. Tuesday's surge in boxed beef prices is a big development for the market. Substantially higher boxed beef prices likely means that some packers will run a Saturday kill this week in order to ensure that they can capitalize on the selling of product at these levels. Secondly, with last week's negotiated cash cattle market only selling 44,000 head, packers will need to be more aggressive in this week's market to ensure they have cattle committed for the upcoming weeks, which becomes slightly easier for them to do when boxed beef prices are soaring. Heading into 2023, monitoring throughput, and keeping a close eye on showlists current-ness will be a top priority. February live cattle closed $0.12 higher at $157.87, April live cattle remained steady at $161.82 and June live cattle closed $0.17 lower at $157.67. 

Tuesday's slaughter is estimated at 128,000 head, 4,000 head more than a week ago and 7,000 head more than a year ago. Monday's slaughter is estimated at 6,000 head. 

New showlists appear to be higher in all three major feeding states, somewhat higher in Texas, but higher in Kansas and Nebraska/Colorado.

The bulk of last week's light business took place on Thursday and Friday, with Northern dressed sales ranging from $246 to $250, mostly $249, $1 higher than the prior week's weighted averages. Southern live deals were at $155 to $156, fully steady to $1 higher than the previous week's weighted averages. Last week's negotiated cash cattle trade totaled 44,051 head. Of that, 88% (38,827 head) were committee for the nearby delivery, while the remaining 12% (5,224 head) were committed for the deferred delivery.

Boxed beef prices closed higher: choice up $8.09 ($280.04) and select up $0.17 ($245.64) with a movement of 78 loads (42.39 loads of choice, 20.66 loads of select, 3.98 loads of trim and 10.74 loads of ground beef). The choice/select spread sits at $34.40.

WEDNESDAY'S CATTLE CALL: Higher. With last week's negotiated cash cattle trade only seeing 44,000 head sold, packers will need to be active in this week's market to secure supplies for upcoming kills.

FEEDER CATTLE:

The feeder cattle complex closed lower, which comes as no surprise as placements were higher than what analysts projected on Friday's Cattle on Feed report, and as corn prices grew stronger as the day traded on. January feeders closed $0.90 lower at $183.10, March feeders closed $1.35 lower at $185.40 and April feeders closed $1.12 lower at $189.12. If the cash cattle market and live cattle complex can lend the feeder cattle market support later in the week, then the complex stands a chance at trading sideways to somewhat higher so long as the grain market doesn't impose too much more pressure. It was positive to see that the market remained above both its 40-day and 100-day moving averages even with Tuesday's downturn. The CME Feeder Cattle Index for Dec. 23: down $0.38, $176.37.

LEAN HOGS:

The lean hog complex had no issues trading higher throughout Tuesday's market as traders finally had the opportunity to trade Friday's strong Quarterly Hogs and Pigs report. With thinner supplies forecast throughout much of 2023, hog producers are hoping that the thinner supplies will lay a foundation for potentially higher prices. With cold storage flush with inventory, that isn't the case in Tuesday's market, but it could be in 2023. Pork cutout values again sank lower by Tuesday's close with the belly being the biggest problem as it alone dropped $8.03. Meanwhile the butt gained $3.83, the loin closed $1.08 higher, and the rib gained $1.00 by today's end. February lean hogs closed $3.65 higher at 91.47, April lean hogs closed $1.07 higher at $96.45 and June lean hogs closed $0.17 higher at $108.92. Pork cutouts totaled 267.93 loads with 236.38 loads of pork cuts and 31.55 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: down $1.14, $90.92. Tuesday's slaughter is estimated at 490,000 head, 1,000 head more than a week ago and 14,000 head more than a year ago. The CME Lean Hog Index for Dec. 22: down $0.93, $78.74.

WEDNESDAY'S HOG CALL: Higher. Given that packers were so lax in last week's market, they'll need to be more aggressive this week in order to ensure they have enough inventory for upcoming kills.

Tuesday Midday Livestock Market Summary - Hogs Leap Into the New Week With Gusto

GENERAL COMMENTS:

The lean hog complex is taking the exciting nature of last week's bullish Quarterly Hogs and Pigs report, while the live cattle and feeder cattle contracts are sitting back and trading timidly as they received a lukewarm Cattle on Feed report. March corn is up 6 1/4 cents per bushel and March soybean meal is down $4.80. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 119.71 points.

LIVE CATTLE:

The live cattle complex has toyed with the idea of trading higher, but with the mixed findings on last week's Cattle on Feed report, the doggish nature of placements in the report seems to have the cattle market's full focus. February live cattle are down $0.07 at $157.67, April live cattle are down $0.02 at $161.80 and June live cattle are down $0.17 at $157.67. It will be interesting to see how boxed beef prices fare now that the Christmas holiday is over and retailers look to restock their coolers. If Tuesday's midday prices are any sort of a representation of what's to come throughout the week, then the tone in the live cattle arena should improve.

The bulk of last week's light business took place on Thursday and Friday, with Northern dressed sales ranging from $246 to $250, mostly $249, $1 higher than the prior week's weighted averages. Southern live deals were at $155 to $156, fully steady to $1 higher than the previous week's weighted averages.

Boxed beef prices are higher: choice up $7.15 ($279.10) and select up $3.82 ($249.29) with a movement of 35 loads (21.48 loads of choice, 5.92 loads of select, zero loads of trim and 7.15 loads of ground beef).

FEEDER CATTLE:

The feeder cattle complex is getting hit with a double whammy as it reacts to the lower placements on Friday's Cattle on Feed report (but placements were still higher than what analysts assumed) and the $0.03 to $0.06 rally happening in Tuesday morning's corn market. The COF report doesn't necessary care at this time that placements were lighter than a year ago; all traders are seeming to care about is the fact that analysts projected placements to be lighter than what they actually were. If the live cattle market can keep cash cattle prices trading at least steady, then the market may stand a chance at trading higher later in the week when the news from the COF report grows old. January feeders are down $0.95 at $183.05, March feeders are down $1.20 ta $185.55 and April feeders are down $1.07 at $189.17.

LEAN HOGS:

The lean hog complex is trading higher as the market runs wildly after having time to absorb last Friday's bullish Quarterly Hogs and Pigs report. With less supply expected to be available to the market in the year ahead, producers are hoping that they'll see higher prices as smaller supplies should bode well for stronger prices so long as demand persists. February lean hogs are up $2.92 at $90.77, April lean hogs are up $1.35 at $96.72 and June lean hogs are up $0.32 at $109.07.

The projected lean hog index for Dec. 23 is down $0.14 at $78.60 and the actual index for Dec. 22 is down $0.93 at $78.74. Hog prices are unavailable on the Daily Direct Morning Hog Report due to packer submission issues. Pork cutouts total 137.50 loads with 116.22 loads of pork cuts and 21.28 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: up $6.68, $98.74.

Tuesday Morning Livestock Market Update - Reports Will Influence Trading Activity

GENERAL COMMENTS:

Cattle traded $1.00 higher in both the North and South to close out the week with business needing to be accomplished after a week of holding out. Boxed beef prices virtually exploded higher with choice up $6.74 and select up $3.66, finishing an impressive week of boxed beef gains. It is uncertain how traders will react Tuesday on the numbers of the Cattle on Feed report. The report showed on feed 3% and placements 2% lower than a year ago, which would be supportive in comparison. However, the wild card will be placements as the trade estimated a 4.2% decline in placements. With the market moving up into the report, there is a strong possibility selling pressure could be put on the market Tuesday as traders under anticipated the amount of cattle placed. Marketings were right on expectations and the highest marketings for November since 1996.

Hog futures showed traders were a bit more uncertain of what the Hogs & Pigs report would show with spread trading between nearby and back months. The report was mostly neutral with all hogs and pigs 0.5% below trade expectations and marketings 0.4% below expectations. Offsetting this was the kept-for-breeding number which was 0.3% above trade estimates. These are not large differences either way, but trade generally takes place according to actual compared to estimates. Cutouts posted a strong gain on Friday with values up $3.30, which may support trade Tuesday.

	BULL SIDE		BEAR SIDE
1)	Cattle on feed and placements were in line with expectations and continue to show a decrease of the beef herd.	1)	Placements in feedlots were more than expected which could result in some liquidation of futures.
2)	Packers will need to purchase cattle this week as they do not have many forward contracted. Feedlots will again hold out for higher cash.	2)	The strong increase of boxed beef Friday might have been the result on consumer purchasing ahead of Christmas and the severe winter storm that affected much of the country. Beef may trade lower this week.
3)	The Hogs & Pigs report was neutral and should provide support to the market with all weight categories below a year ago.	3)	Kept for breeding numbers were slightly higher than anticipated, which could impact upside potential.
4)	Strong cutout values Friday should influence the trade today as traders generally trade cutout values the following day.	4)	February hogs hold a large premium over cash which may limit upside potential.

Friday Closing Livestock Market Update - Cattle Press Higher Into Christmas Weekend

GENERAL COMMENTS

It was a tremendous week for the livestock complex, and for the most part, the market ended on a positive note by Friday's close. Hog prices are unavailable on the Daily Direct Afternoon Hog Report because of confidentiality issues. However, we can see that 440 head have traded and that the five-day rolling average sits at $79.66. March corn is up 5 3/4 cents per bushel, and March soybean meal is up $3. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 176.44 points.

From Friday to Friday, the livestock futures scored the following changes: December live cattle up $1.85, February live cattle up $1.97; January feeders up $0.22, March feeders up $2.05; February lean hogs up $2.05, April lean hogs up $2.65; March corn up $0.13, May corn up $0.12.

LIVE CATTLE:

If this week wasn't a gift from old Saint Nick himself, I don't know what it was. From the market's ability to trade cash cattle higher despite throughput being at a fraction of what it was just a few weeks ago, to the onset of sharply higher box prices, and the note from Friday's Cattle on Feed report that on-feed numbers are lighter than a year ago and that marketings in November were the most aggressive for the month since the report began back in 1996 is something worth celebrating! February live cattle closed $0.45 higher at $157.75, April live cattle closed $0.50 higher at $161.82, and June live cattle closed $0.57 higher at $157.85. The cash cattle market saw some more trade reported in the South, and it was at higher money. Southern feedlots were able to move cattle throughout the day for $156, which is $1 higher than Thursday's trade and $1 higher than last week's weighted average. There wasn't much more action seen in the North, but on Thursday, Northern dressed cattle sold for mostly $249, which was also $1 higher than last week's weighted average. Choice boxed beef prices ran to $271.95, which is the highest the market has traded since July.

Friday's slaughter is estimated at 104,000 head -- 15,000 head less than a week ago and incomparable to a year ago. Saturday's slaughter is projected to be around 3,000 head. Thursday's cattle slaughter was revised to 109,000 head. This week's slaughter is estimated at 562,000 head -- 63,000 head less than a week ago and 75,000 head more than a year ago.

Boxed beef prices closed higher: choice up $6.74 ($271.95) and select up $3.66 ($245.47) with a movement of 73 loads (46.10 loads of choice, 5.78 loads of select, 3.51 loads of trim and 17.85 loads of ground beef). The choice/select spread sits at $26.48. Throughout the week, choice cuts averaged $266.18 (up $10.35 from a week ago) and select cuts averaged $239.21 (up $10.85 from a week ago) and the week's total movement of cuts, grinds and trim totaled 463 loads.

TUESDAY'S CATTLE CALL: Higher. Given that packers are as short bought as they are and that showlists are current, packers will likely need to participate in next week's cash market to ensure they have enough cattle for the upcoming weeks.

FEEDER CATTLE:

The feeder cattle complex kept rallying through Friday's close and rounded out the week on a substantially higher note, as the market used this past week to its fullest to advance its position. Friday's Cattle on Feed report was largely supportive, but the only thing that was somewhat surprising to see is that placements came in at 1,925,000 head -- which was down 2% from last year. If you were to read that line in and of itself, you'd be led to believe that the report should find Friday's placement data bullish! There were fewer feeders placed this November than last year, for heaven's sake! But that's not how the Cattle on Feed report works. Before each COF report is released, a group of analysts are asked to project where they see the report's numbers landing and how close or how far away the actual numbers are from analysts' projections is what determines how the report will be viewed. Analysts believed that placements could land anywhere from 91.8% to 98.0% of a year ago, with the consensus being that Friday's data would be somewhere close to 95.7% of a year ago. When the COF report was released, we saw placement down just 2% from a year ago, equating to 98%. It will be interesting to see how traders react early next week, as they could either see the report as lukewarm because placements were higher than projected, or they could view the report as a whole and conclude its findings are supportive given that on-feed numbers were lighter than a year ago, placements too were lighter than a year ago, and marketings were extremely aggressive. Unfortunately, we'll have to wait and see how things shake out next week to know the answer to that question. January feeders closed $0.02 higher at $184, March feeders closed $0.30 higher at $186.75 and April feeders closed $0.35 higher at $190.25. The CME feeder cattle index 12/22/2022: down $1.08, $176.75.

LEAN HOGS:

The lean hog complex grew anxious ahead of Friday's close and ended up closing slightly lower in its nearby contracts, but the deferred contracts were still able to keep a slightly higher price point before the day's end. USDA's release of the most recent quarterly Hogs and Pigs report showed lighter supplies of all weight divisions in the marketing category, and a steady number of breeding sows for the December-through-February time frame. All in all, the report is supportive of the market, as its supply isn't overbearing to the complex. February lean hogs closed $1.22 lower at $87.82, April lean hogs closed $0.65 lower at $95.37 and June lean hogs closed $0.20 lower at $108.75. Pork cutouts totaled 208.18 loads with 194.20 loads of pork cuts and 13.97 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: up $3.30, $92.06. Friday's slaughter is estimated at 96,000 head -- 353,000 head fewer than a week ago and 49,000 head more than a year ago. Saturday's kill is projected to be around 3,000 head. Thursday's hog slaughter was revised to 252,000 head. The CME lean hog index 12/21/2022: down $0.90, $79.67.

TUESDAY'S HOG CALL: Higher. Given that packers barely supported the cash market at all this week, it's most likely that they'll need to be more aggressive next week even though throughput won't likely reach normal speeds until after the New Year.

Friday Midday Livestock Market Summary - Live Cattle Market Isn't Slowing Down

GENERAL COMMENTS:

Even though it's the last trading day ahead of the long Christmas weekend, the livestock complex is still engaged and actively trading in the market as this afternoon has a lot of business to unveil. More cash cattle trade is expected to develop and USDA is set to release both a Cattle on Feed report and the Quarterly Hogs and Pigs report. March corn is up 6 3/4 cents per bushel and March soybean meal is up $3.90. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 166.95 points.

LIVE CATTLE:

The live cattle complex continues to trail higher as the market is seeing tremendous support. From the unwavering support of the futures complex to the rocket-launch-like price jump in midday boxed beef values, to the unwavering, relentless spirit of cattle feeders who are still going toe-to-toe with packers at this very minute -- the live cattle market is ready to rumble! There are a few bids being reported in parts of Nebraska at $156 to $158 and in Colorado for $155. At this point no one has accepted those offers, but it wouldn't be unlikely to see some more cattle trade ahead of the week's end. Thursday live cattle traded for $155, which is fully steady with the previous week's weighted average, and dressed cattle sold for mostly $249, which is $1.00 higher than last week's weighted average. With feedlots knowing this afternoon's Cattle on Feed Report will likely favor their position, they're in no hurry to trade cattle at steady money. February live cattle are up $0.07 at $157.37, April live cattle are up $0.12 at $161.45 and June live cattle are up $0.20 at $157.47.

Boxed beef prices are higher: choice up $6.32 ($271.53) and select up $3.53 ($245.34) with a movement of 48 loads (33.45 loads of choice, 3.79 loads of select, zero loads of trim and 10.89 loads of ground beef).

FEEDER CATTLE:

The feeder cattle market is trading mostly higher although some of the nearby contracts are facing mild pressure as the noon hour nears. The market continues to cling to the action seen in the live cattle market and sees the added support from midday boxed beef values and the likelihood that cash cattle trade higher yet again -- which seems to be overpowering the onset of higher corn prices for meantime. The market is also anxiously awaiting Friday's Cattle on Feed report where placements are expected to be lower than a year ago -- which bodes extremely well for the feeder cattle market and its desire to keep trading higher. January feeders are down $0.27 at $183.70, March feeders are up $0.02 at $186.42 and April feeders are down $0.07 at $189.82.

LEAN HOGS:

Ahead of the afternoon's big Quarterly Hogs and Pigs report, which is expected to forecast tighter supplies in 2023, the lean hog market is holding its breath trading merely sideways through Friday's morning hours. February lean hogs are down $1.17 at $87.87, April lean hogs are down $0.92 at $95.10 and June lean hogs are down $0.55 at $108.40. The market won't be able to trade the USDA's report this afternoon as it comes out after closing, but if the report is indeed bullish for the year ahead -- then next week's market should have no issue roaring higher to the week.

The projected CME Lean Hog Index for 12/22/2022 is down $0.93 at $78.74, and the actual index for 12/21/2022 is down $0.90 at $79.67. Hog prices are unavailable due to confidentiality issues. We can see however on the Daily Direct Morning Hog Report that 415 head have traded, and that the market's five-day rolling average now sits at $80.00. Pork cutouts total 146.32 loads with 139.22 loads of pork cuts and 7.10 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: up $0.79, $89.55.

Friday Morning Livestock Market Update - Reports and an Extended Weekend Will Influence Trading

GENERAL COMMENTS:

Live cattle futures traded in a narrow range Thursday with contracts holding much of Tuesday's gains. Feedlots continued to hold for no worse than steady cash, which traded at that level in the South while a light volume of cattle traded as much as $1.00 higher in the North. Further business will need to be done Friday and likely at similar prices. Boxed beef closed higher with choice up $0.35 and select up $5.52. Weekly export sales were rather dismal with only 4,500 metric tons (mt) recorded in the books. Trading is expected to be choppy as traders look ahead to the Cattle on Feed report as well as a three-day weekend. Cattle on feed on Dec. 1 are estimated to be 97.1% of a year ago. Placements are estimated at 95.8% and marketings at 101.0%. This would be a friendly report and, if so, much of it may be already factored in.

Hogs found further support both from the weather and good export sales. The winter storm is hindering the movement of hogs to the market, which may have been a part of the reason cutouts jumped $6.31 Thursday. Much of the strength stemmed from weekly export sales of 58,700 mt with Mexico purchasing a large share of the total. Cash was down $0.44 on the National Direct Afternoon Hog report with further weakness expected Friday as packers may be less aggressive. The Quarterly Hogs & Pigs report estimates show all hogs and pigs on Dec. 1 at 98.5% of a year ago; kept for breeding at 99.7%; and kept for marketing at 98.4%. Much of the trading activity Friday might be mixed as traders prepare for the report and the extended weekend.

	BULL SIDE		BEAR SIDE
1)	Live cattle futures are holding new highs with optimism the Cattle on Feed report will be supportive.	1)	Beef in cold storage increased 11.6 million pounds in November with inventory 6% above a year ago.
2)	Packers will need to pay no less than steady money to obtain the cattle yet needed for the week. Feedlots are willing to hold out.	2)	Traders may be more interested in managing their exposure of positions prior to the report and extended weekend, which could result in price weakness.
3)	Strong pork export sales provided support under the market, indicating international demand remains strong and will hopefully continue after the holidays.	3)	Weaker cash may put pressure on the market as February hogs now carry quite a bit of premium.
4)	The USDA Cold Storage report showed a large decrease of 55.5 million pounds of frozen pork during November, an 11% decline from October.	4)	Some profit-taking may take place Friday as the market has had a strong increase over the past two days and traders look ahead to the Hog & Pigs report and an extended weekend.

Thursday Closing Livestock Market Update - Producers Anxious for Friday's Cattle on Feed and Quarterly Hogs and Pigs Reports

GENERAL COMMENTS

It was another phenomenal day for the livestock complex as traders supported the market. With both the Cattle on Feed and Quarterly Hogs and Pigs reports expected to be bullish for the markets, traders and livestock producers alike are eagerly waiting Friday's findings. Hog prices closed lower on the Daily Direct Afternoon Hog Report, down $0.44 with a weighted average of $79.08. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 348.99 points.

Thursday's cold storage report shared that total red meat supplies in freezers was down 4% compared to the previous month, but up 10% from last year. Total pounds of beef in freezers were up 2% from the previous month, and up 6% from last year. Frozen pork supplies were down 11% from the previous month, but up 13% from last year. Stocks of pork bellies were up 35% from last month, and up 116% from last year. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 380.88 points.

LIVE CATTLE:

It was another tremendous day for the live cattle complex as the market closed mostly higher, only seeing its soon to expire December contract and February contract close lower. With the February contract still able to maintain a price point above the market's resistance threshold of $157, and April live cattle able to close above $161.00, were major accomplishments for the market. After making a bold move like the market did on Wednesday, it was Thursday's job to either solidify and support the move or send tumbling. With the expectation that Friday's Cattle on Feed report will be bullish, with fewer on feed numbers, lighter placements and at least steady, if not more aggressive marketings than compared to a year ago, combined with feedlots' unwillingness to trade cattle for cheaper money and the market's stronger boxed beef prices, traders put the pedal to the metal and let the market trade the strong fundamentals it holds. February live cattle closed $0.40 lower at $157.30, April live cattle closed $0.15 higher at $161.32 and June live cattle closed $0.30 higher at $157.27. There was a small handful of cattle traded in Nebraska for $249, which is $1.00 higher than last week's weighted average, and some Southern live cattle traded at $155 which is fully steady with last week's business. More trade is expected to develop on Friday. Asking prices in the South remain firm at $156 to $157, and in the North at $249 plus. 

Thursday's slaughter is estimated at 113,000 head, 9,000 head less than a week ago and 2,000 head less than a year ago.

Thursday's actual slaughter data for the week ending Dec. 10 shared that steers averaged 928 pounds, which is 3 pounds heavier than the previous week but 1pound less than a year ago. For the same week, heifers averaged 851 pounds, 1 pound heavier than a week ago but still steady with year ago weights.

Beef net sales of 4,500 mt for 2022 were primarily for Japan (3,500 mt), South Korea (600 mt) and Mexico (500 mt).

Boxed beef prices closed higher: choice up $0.35 ($265.21) and select up $5.52 ($241.81) with a movement of 91 loads (64.66 loads of choice, 15.24 loads of select, 3.65 loads of trim and 7.09 loads of ground beef). The choice/select spread sits at $23.40.

FRIDAY'S CATTLE CALL: Higher. Prices could run higher in the South as very few cattle have traded in that region, but they'll likely remain steady in the North at this point with the week's trend.

FEEDER CATTLE:

With the live cattle market gaining more momentum, the feeder cattle complex continued to trade higher throughout Thursday's market despite the fact that corn tried to post a modest rally but failed by the day's end. January feeders closed $0.15 higher at $183.97, March feeders closed $0.72 higher at $186.45 and April feeders closed $0.55 higher at $189.90. With placements estimated to range anywhere between 91.8% and 98.0% of a year ago, the feeder cattle market is elated for Friday's market to be nearing so that the Cattle on Feed report can most likely propel its market even higher. The CME Feeder Cattle Index for Dec. 21: down $0.31, $177.83.

LEAN HOGS:

The lean hog complex continued to rally throughout Thursday's market as it not only expects a supportive Hogs and Pigs report Friday, but it also was saw a supportive export report Thursday morning. The anticipation that Friday's report will show fewer breeding sows mixed with the strong exports report helped traders continue to advance the market despite processing speeds being cut drastically. February lean hogs closed $0.65 higher at $89.05, April lean hogs closed $0.75 higher at $96.02 and June lean hogs closed $0.52 higher at $108.95. Pork cutout values did see a tremendous gain Thursday, but that doesn't offset the volatility that remains in the pork cutout sector. Pork cutouts totaled 308.86 loads with 288.99 loads of pork cuts and 19.87 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: up $6.31, $88.76. Thursday's slaughter is estimated at 259,000 head, 216,000 head less than a week ago, and 195,000 head less than a year ago. Wednesday's hog slaughter was revised to 450,000 head. The CME Lean Hog Index for Dec. 20: down $0.29, $80.57.

Pork net sales of 58,700 mt for 2022 were primarily for Mexico (33,400 mt), Japan (9,900 mt) and Canada (4,600 mt).

FRIDAY'S HOG CALL: Lower. With processing speeds cut drastically, it's unlikely that packers will be aggressive in Friday's market.

Thursday Midday Livestock Market Summary - Higher Tones Continue to Push the Complex Onward

GENERAL COMMENTS:

The momentum that exploded throughout Wednesday's market in mainly the lean hog and live cattle markets is still present in the market again Thursday. The cash cattle market hasn't seen any cattle trade as packers and feedlots are in a tough stand off, and it's likely that trade waits to develop until Friday. March corn is up 1/2 cent per bushel and March soybean meal is down $5.20. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 630.35 points.

LIVE CATTLE:

The live cattle complex is trading mixed into Thursday's afternoon with the market's nearby contracts trading slightly lower while the deferred market's cling to their higher trend. It was a big move for the live cattle market to break out Wednesday afternoon and surpass resistance in both the February and April contracts. Even though those market's may be trading mildly lower right now, the simple fact that they're still trading above the original resistance threshold points is quite commendable. The market will likely feel more confident about Wednesday's move once Friday's Cattle on Feed report is unveiled (as it's expected to be bullish) and once feedlots trade cattle, as they're expected to keep the market at least steady this week. The country has yet to see any bids develop from packers and it's looking like this week's showdown between packers and feedlots could last until Friday. Asking prices in the South are noted at $156 to $157, and $249 in the North. February live cattle are down $0.40 at $157.30, April live cattle are down $0.15 at $161.02 and June live cattle are up $0.02 at $157.00.

Beef net sales of 4,500 mt for 2022 were primarily for Japan (3,500 mt), South Korea (600 mt) and Mexico (500 mt).

Boxed beef prices are higher: choice up $1.88 ($266.74) and select up $3.91 ($240.20) with a movement of 52 loads (32.68 loads of choice, 12.07 loads of select, 3.65 loads of trim and 3.90 loads of ground beef).

FEEDER CATTLE:

The feeder cattle complex continues to trade higher despite the fact that the corn market is yet again trading higher too. At this point, traders seem to be valuing the move in the live cattle complex and the expectation that Friday's Cattle on Feed report will show both lighter on feed numbers and fewer placements as more of a deciding factor than the slight uptick in Thursday's corn market. January feeders are up $0.37 at $184.20, March feeders are up $0.67 at $186.40 and April feeders are up $0.52 at $189.87.

LEAN HOGS:

With Friday's Hogs and Pigs report expected to be extremely supportive to the lean hog market, the hog complex is keeping with Wednesday's strong tone as it pushes into the noon hour fully higher. February lean hogs are up $0.45 at $88.85, April lean hogs are up $0.47 at $95.72 and June lean hogs are up $0.30 at $108.72. It's likely that the market will keep this ambition tone well through Thursday's trade and likely into Friday's trade as well. With the supportive nature of Thursday's export report and the likelihood that Friday's big quarterly Hogs and Pigs report is favorable to the market, traders are looking past this week's mostly disappointing trade in both pork cutout values and cash prices.

Pork net sales of 58,700 mt for 2022 were primarily for Mexico (33,400 mt), Japan (9,900 mt) and Canada (4,600 mt).

The projected lean hog index for Dec. 11 is down $0.90 at $79.67 and the actual index for Dec. 20 is down $0.29 at $80.57. Hog prices are higher on the Daily Direct Morning Hog report, up $0.38 with a weighted average of $79.86, ranging from $77.00 to $80.00 on 2,119 head and a five-day rolling average of $79.98. Pork cutouts total 190.26 loads with 181.23 loads of pork cuts and 9.03 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: up $5.09, $87.54.

Thursday Morning Livestock Market Update - Optimism Provides Strong Support

GENERAL COMMENTS:

Live cattle traders could not contain their excitement pushing futures to new contract highs. The winter storm that is moving across the country provided some support as feedlots may delay marketing plans and focus on animal welfare instead. Packers are short-bought and their attempts at steady to lower bids were rejected, leaving no cash activity Wednesday. The upcoming Cattle on Feed report is anticipated to be friendly and has also provided optimism. Cattle on feed on Dec. 1 are estimated to be 97.1% of a year ago. Placements are estimated at 95.8% and marketings at 101.0%. All live cattle futures made new contract highs Wednesday, increasing trader confidence for higher prices. Boxed beef was mixed with choice down $0.19 with select up $2.39. Feeder cattle did not succumb to higher corn prices but increased in optimism along with live cattle.

Hogs rocketed higher in nearby months, influenced by spillover from the cattle complex and the expectation that the Quarterly Hogs & Pigs report will be supportive. Fundamentals for the strong move were lacking as the National Direct Afternoon report declined $0.40 and cutouts were down $1.01. The movement Wednesday does not even seem to be technical in nature but rather more influenced by holiday trade and optimism. Lighter slaughter indicates packers may be winding down into the holiday weekend. There will be no Saturday slaughter.

	BULL SIDE		BEAR SIDE
1)	New contract highs in live cattle should improve trader optimism and confidence to hold long positions into the Cattle on Feed report.	1)	Strength in cattle futures will need to be supported by the Cattle on Feed report or long liquidation could be triggered.
2)	Even though slaughter will be lower this week and next week, packers are short-bought and may need to step up to purchase what they need.	2)	Cash cattle trade no better than steady may be a disappointment, causing bullish traders to reduce their exposure prior to the weekend and the upcoming report.
3)	Hog futures moved back up into the sideways trading pattern that had been established since May. It seems that is where the market needs to be.	3)	Hog futures moved sharply higher without support from underlying cash or cutouts, which may cause futures to settle back Thursday.
4)	Traders expect a friendly Quarterly Hogs & Pigs report and tighter numbers next year.	4)	A neutral Hogs & Pigs report Friday could temper the exuberance and move futures more in line with cash.

Wednesday Closing Livestock Market Update - Market Keeps Strong Tones

GENERAL COMMENTS

The livestock complex powered through Wednesday's trade as the support from the commodity market helped propel all the contracts higher. Come Thursday, the market will be e interested in seeing how the cash cattle market trades. Hog prices closed lower on the Daily Direct Afternoon Hog Report, down $0.40 with a weighted average of $79.52 on 3,764 head. March corn is up 10 1/4 cents per bushel and March soybean meal is up $3.40. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 526.74 points.

LIVE CATTLE:

There are good days, and then there are unforeseen, crazy days like Wednesday. The board's willingness to trade higher completely changes the tone of this week's market and lays the grounds for next week's market to trade substantially higher, especially if Friday's Cattle on Feed report is bullish, which it's expected to be with lighter on-feed numbers and fewer placements. What was potentially most exciting about Wednesday's trade was that, in both the spot February contract and the highly sought-after April contract, resistance was broke. February live cattle were able to close at $157.70 which far surpassed the market's resistance at $157, and April live cattle broke above $160 and to close at $161.17. I realize that reaching these price points is one thing and keeping the market elevated to trade at these levels is another, but with feedlots unwilling to trade cattle at Wednesday's early bids, I tend to believe that with the added power of Friday's potentially strong Cattle on Feed report. And the chance that feedlots trade cattle steady to somewhat higher may be enough fundamental support to keep traders actively engaged in the live cattle market. Bids of $153 were offered in both Kansas and Texas, but that's significantly lower than feedlot's asking prices of $156 to $157. Trade will develop sometime Thursday and will be the focus of most in the cattle sector. 

Wednesday's slaughter is estimated at 122,000 head, 4,000 head more than a week ago and steady with a year ago.

Boxed beef prices closed mixed: choice down $0.19 ($265.86) and select up $2.39 ($236.29) with a movement of 118 loads (65.39 loads of choice, 20.92 loads of select, 6.98 loads of trim and 24.83 loads of ground beef). The choice/select spread sits at $28.57.

THURSDAY'S CATTLE CALL: Higher. With the change in the market's tone thanks to the dynamic trade throughout the futures complex, I do believe that feedlots will be able to trade cattle at least steady, if not even a little higher this week.

FEEDER CATTLE:

The feeder cattle complex traded strong throughout Wednesday's market even though it usually would have cratered and went tumbling lower at the sight of corn trading $0.08 to $0.10 higher. But with Friday's Cattle on Feed report expected to be supportive with fewer on-feed numbers and significantly lighter placements, combined with the stark rally in the live cattle contracts, the feeder cattle market opted to take a chance and trade higher. January feeders closed $0.20 higher at $183.82, March feeders closed $0.70 higher at $185.72 and April feeders closed $0.87 higher at $189.35. Thursday's market will test the feeder cattle complex, as it will either have to support Wednesday's decision and continue to trade steady to somewhat higher, or retract and trade lower. Much will depend on what the live cattle market does and how this week's cash cattle market pans out. The CME Feeder Cattle Index for Dec. 20: up $0.13, $178.14.

LEAN HOGS:

It was wild to watch the lean hog complex close as strongly as it did, as the market hasn't largely been trading in a somewhat lower trending pattern. Besides trading higher alongside both the live cattle and feeder cattle markets, the trickle-over support from the commodity market and the hope that Friday's Hogs and Pigs report will be supportive sent Wednesday's market higher. Now the market's fundamentals paint a different outlook to the complex -- as the cash market didn't see hardly any hogs trade and pork cutout values closed lower again -- the futures market stepped up to the plate at Wednesday's dawn. February lean hogs closed $4.15 higher at $88.40, April lean hogs closed $3.10 higher at $95.27 and June lean hogs closed $1.90 higher at $108.42. Pork cutouts totaled 272.96 loads with 235.07 loads of pork cuts and 37.89 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: down $1.01, $82.45. Wednesday's slaughter is estimated at 460,000 head, 30,000 head less than a week ago and 5,000 head less than a year ago. The CME Lean Hog Complex for Dec. 19: up $0.02, $80.86.

THURSDAY'S HOG CALL: Lower. Packers have shown that they're not interested in aggressively procuring hogs ahead of the Christmas holiday.

Wednesday Midday Livestock Market Update - Complex Charges Onward

GENERAL COMMENTS:

It may be the week of Christmas, but the livestock complex isn't trading doggishly through Wednesday's market. Even with the nearby corn contracts pushing a $0.07 to $0.09 rally, the livestock complex is trading higher into the day's noon hour. March corn is up 8 cents per bushel and March soybean meal is up $3.00. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 496.48 points.

LIVE CATTLE:

How about a little midweek excitement for the live cattle market? With the futures complex roaring into Wednesday's noon hour, and the cash cattle market starting to see bids develop, the market seeming to be just now heating up. The biggest news thus far of Wednesday has undoubtedly been the action seen in the futures market. With traders pouring into the market, the spot February contract has been able to break beyond the market's resistance at $157.00. Whether or not the market will be able to sustain the move through closing remains unknown, but given that feedlots are jumping at the market's first offers in the cash sector is positive. December live cattle are up $0.97 at $156.05, February live cattle are up $1.77 at $157.35 and April live cattle are up $1.42 at $161.07. Seeing the April board break above $160 may be the encouragement that feedlots need in order to push this week's cash market higher even yet. So far bids have been offered in Kansas and Texas at $153, but that's well under the Southern Plains asking price of $156 to $157. With the board's momentum, it's likely that trade waits until Thursday to develop.

The Fed Cattle Exchange Auction held today reported 7 lots (6 lots in Texas and 1 lot in Colorado), totaling 992 head of cattle, none of which sold. Opening prices were at $153, high bids had a range of $153 to $153.75, but none of these bids met reserve prices of $156 to $157.

Boxed beef prices are mixed: choice down $0.12 ($264.93) and select up $2.21 ($236.11) with a movement of 69 loads (34.33 loads of choice, 12.40 loads of select, 2.77 loads of trim and 19.62 loads of ground beef).

FEEDER CATTLE:

The feeder cattle market isn't giving the corn market's rally any bit of attention as the market is focusing on the better interest in the entire commodity sector and especially in the better interest in cattle arena. It is surprising that the corn market's $0.07 to $0.09 rally in the nearby contracts hasn't unraveled feeder's confidence, but at this point feeders are feeling confident enough to challenge existing resistance levels and show no sign of backing down. January feeders are up $0.22 at $183.85, March feeders are up $0.90 at $185.95 and April feeders are up $0.90 at $189.37.

LEAN HOGS:

Even with cash prices trading slightly lower and pork cutout values yet again showing a lower figure at the day's noon hour, the lean hog complex is trading higher alongside the rest of the livestock contracts. Traders have dived aggressively into the market and, given that commodity sector is doing better too, eventually their attention gravitated to the livestock contracts despite fundamental support for the market showing much improvement. The cash hog market is especially interesting as only a thin volume of 2,814 head were reported this morning. The market should see a little better volume traded this afternoon unless packers are more or less done buying for the week. February lean hogs are up $2.70 at $86.95, April lean hogs are up $1.95 at $94.12 and June lean hog are up $1.22 at $107.75.

The projected lean hog index for Dec. 20 is down $0.29 at $80.57, and the actual index for Dec. 19 is up $0.02 at $80.86. Hog prices are lower on the Daily Direct Morning Hog Report, down $0.50 with a weighted average of $79.48, ranging from $76.00 to $80.00 on 2,814 head and a five-day rolling average of $80.10. Pork cutouts total 163.11 loads with 139.24 load of pork cuts and 23.87 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: down $0.63, $82.83.