Tuesday Closing Livestock Market Update - Weakness in the Livestock Complex

GENERAL COMMENTS:

It was a tough day to start the week following the long Memorial Day weekend, as the livestock complex and futures market was bearish. Heading into Wednesday's market, packer interest should grow stronger and cattle could begin to trade. Hog prices closed higher on the Daily Direct Afternoon Hog Report, up $1.90 with a weighted average of $111.58 on 6,326 head. July corn is down 23 3/4 cents per bushel and July soybean meal is down $17.50. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 222.84 points.

LIVE CATTLE:

The live cattle market fell in line with the rest of the commodities and rounded out Tuesday's trade fully lower. June live cattle closed $1.65 lower at $130.52, August live cattle closed $2.02 lower at $130.37 and October live cattle closed $1.90 lower at $136.15. As the market plummeted to new lows for the for the year, cattlemen are still stuck juggling the short- and long-term balls of the market. In the near term, cattlemen are trying to forecast how tough the summer could become, all while trying to gauge how strong the market could be in the latter half of the year. Watching both beef prices and slaughter speeds through June will be incredibly important. The cash cattle market saw a little business develop in the South at $135, but not enough to say that any sort of trend was established, but the market does expect to see some business develop by Wednesday. New showlists also appear to be mixed, lower in Kansas, Nebraska/Colorado and somewhat higher in Texas. 

Tuesday's slaughter is estimated at 126,000 head, 1,000 head more than a week ago and 31,000 head more than a year ago. Monday's slaughter is estimated at 3,000 head.

Boxed beef prices closed higher: choice up $2.12 ($267.54) and select up $2.15 ($248.65) with a movement of 144 loads (95.17 loads of choice, 32.57 loads of select, 9.18 loads of trim and 7.46 loads of ground beef).

WEDNESDAY'S CASH CATTLE CALL: Steady to $1.00 lower. Showlists are manageable in the North and even though seasonally the market sits in packers' favor, feedlots may be able to see losses of only $1.00 or so as opposed to losing $3.00 to $4.00 in a week as showlists are current still and carcass weights are declining.

FEEDER CATTLE:

With the rest of the marketplace seeming to have lost its footing and submitting to the descend, the feeder cattle complex wasn't strong enough to stand alone and close higher while the rest of the markets around it tumbled lower. Even with the corn complex seeing a $0.18 to $0.23 reduction in its nearby contracts, the market closed lower. August feeders closed $1.20 lower at $165.12, September feeders closed $1.17 lower at $168.12 and October feeders closed $1.12 lower at $170.70. Sale receipts were light throughout Tuesday's market, as some sale barns are closed for the holiday-shortened week and others saw limited receipts. The market will likely see better interest in its sales that are scheduled for the later half of the week as by that point everyone will be back to the market and operating as normal. The CME Feeder Cattle Index for May 30: down $0.13, $153.22.

LEAN HOGS:

The lean hog market's pressure stemmed from its inability to muster any significant support. As most of the commodity markets saw steep selloffs, the lean hog complex seemed to jump in line for the same demise, even though pork cutout values closed higher and the cash market saw substantial interest too. Nevertheless, the market's demise was largely influenced by the rest of the market's rapid-fire selling behavior, and Wednesday will have to determine if it's going to rest on its own internal influences or flutter based on what the other markets do or don't do. June lean hogs closed $2.42 lower at $107.97, July lean hogs closed $3.72 lower at $108.00 and August lean hogs closed $4.02 lower at $106.42. Pork cutouts total 342.21 loads with 306.76 loads of pork cuts and 35.45 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: up $1.55, $107.71. Tuesday's slaughter is estimated at 480,000 head, 7,000 head more than a week ago and 82,000 head more than a year ago. Monday's slaughter is estimated at 2,000 head. The CME Lean Hog Index for May 26: up $0.53, $104.93.

­­­­­WEDNESDAY'S CASH HOG CALL: Higher. Given that, in the later half of last week's trade, packers sat idly, it's likely that they have to restock and be active early in this week's market.

Tuesday Midday Livestock Market Summary - Contracts Slowly Creep Into Market

GENERAL COMMENTS:

Tuesday's morning has served as a slow and mostly lower start for the livestock complex. Both the lean hog and live cattle contracts are trading lower, but the corn market's weakness has propelled the feeder cattle contracts to higher. July corn is down 22 1/2 cents per bushel and July soybean meal is down $16.30. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 120.49 points.

LIVE CATTLE:

The live cattle market isn't doing much of anything yet for the week, as feedlots tally their showlists and packers try to gauge their need for the weeks ahead. The nearby contracts are drifting modestly lower while the deferred months see mild support carry their contracts higher. The cash cattle market is expected to see mild to weak demand again this week as packers continue to manage their supplies strategically. As the calendar flips to June, watching processing speeds will become even more important as June can make or break the summer's tone as lousy throughout can mean substantially lower prices in July/August. June live cattle are down $0.52 at $131.65, August live cattle are down $0.87 at $131.47 and October live cattle are down $0.77 at $137.27.

Boxed beef prices are higher: choice up $3.10 ($268.51) and select up $1.12 ($247.62) with a movement of 51 loads (28.31 loads of choice, 14.50 loads of select, 5.67 loads of trim and 3.01 loads of ground beef).

FEEDER CATTLE:

As the corn complex falls $0.18 to $0.23 lower in its nearby contracts, the feeder cattle market wastes no time jumping modestly higher after the long weekend. Over the weekend, parts of Montana and Wyoming were soaked with rain, which some are calling the "million-dollar shower" as cattlemen in the West are grateful for any moisture that falls as it could help them recover from the severe drought that's plagued the region. August feeders are up $0.82 at $167.15, September feeders are up $0.72 at $170.02 and October feeders are up $0.67 at $172.50. Last week, the feeder cattle market saw excellent demand throughout the countryside as buyers are now able to buy grass calves and kick them straight onto grass. With the board being supportive, corn weaker and moisture in the air -- it wouldn't be surprising to see sales strong again early this week.

LEAN HOGS:

The lean hog complex hasn't jumped into the new week with any support, as the contracts fall $2.00 to $3.00 lower in the nearby months. June lean hogs are down $2.10 at $108.30, July lean hogs are down $3.32 at $108.40 and August lean hogs are down $3.45 at $107.00. The price break could be stemming from packers' concern of consumer interest following the three-day weekend. Nevertheless, how packers chase the cash hog market this afternoon and how pork cutout values close by the day's end will greatly influence how prices perform come Tuesday. There are lower chart gaps in both the June and July contracts, but that would mean that the market would have to fall substantially lower in order to fill them in this move.

The projected lean hog index is unavailable at this time. Hog prices are higher on the Daily Direct Morning Hog Report, up $0.55 with a weighted average of $109.09, ranging from $104.00 to $112.00 on 3,255 head and a five-day rolling average of $110.75. Pork cutouts total 283.12 loads with 257.04 loads of pork cuts and 26.07 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: down $1.97, $106.16.

Tuesday Morning Livestock Market Update - Cash May Be Slow to Develop

GENERAL COMMENTS:

Traders will be looking forward to see how much demand may have unfolded over the holiday weekend. Orders from retail will provide an indication as to product movement as the grilling season kicked off. There is anticipation that cash cattle may be steady to lower again this week as packers have cattle contracted ahead and may see willing feedlots looking to move market-ready cattle this week. Let's face it, feed prices are not getting any cheaper with too much at stake this growing season. Higher numbers of cattle are expected to be available to the market over the next weeks, leaving the market struggling to find sold support. Boxed beef prices were higher with choice up $1.45 and select up $2.07.

Traders may be a little more optimistic for hogs as overall demand seems to be improving. Cash was $1.67 lower on the National Direct Afternoon report on Friday as the week wound down and most business was done. Retail is expected to place larger orders as the weekend likely moved quite a bit of pork. Packers may be moving aggressively early in the holiday-shortened week to make sure they have sufficient hogs to process to meet demand. Cutouts also faltered Friday with a decline of $1.97. It will be important for cutouts to find support and trend higher, or futures may stall. It will also be important for cutouts to trend higher for June to reach the technical objective of the head-and-shoulders bottom over the next two weeks.

	BULL SIDE		BEAR SIDE
1)	Lower cattle weights and good product movement would cause packers to be more aggressive to make sure they obtain sufficient numbers for the week as well as continue to purchase ahead.	1)	Cash cattle are expected to be no better than steady this week with a strong potential for lower cash.
2)	June live cattle futures hold a significant discount to cash. If cash stabilizes, futures will adjust higher.	2)	Packers may not be aggressive this week as they know feedlots will have cattle to move and they already have some contracted ahead.
3)	July and later hog contracts made new highs Friday, keeping the higher trend intact. Lower cash and cutouts had limited impact.	3)	Cash hogs will need to improve, or the June hog contract may flounder over the next two weeks as it remains close to cash.
4)	Technically, the June hog contract will move higher if it is to reach the objective of over $115 for the head & shoulders bottom over the next two weeks. Cutouts will need to be supportive.	4)	Both June and July hog contracts have chart gaps substantially below the current market.

Friday Closing Livestock Market Update - Mixed-to-Lower Trends Ahead of Memorial Day Weekend

GENERAL COMMENTS:

Heading into the long weekend, the livestock complex closed mixed as traders' support was touch and go, and largely, the market agreed to let next week's complex sort out the fine details. Hog prices closed lower on the Daily Direct Afternoon Hog Report, down $1.67 with a weighted average of $109.68 on 4,736 head. July corn is up 12 1/4 cents per bushel and July soybean meal is up $4.10. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 575.77 points.

From Friday to Friday, livestock futures scored the following changes: June live cattle up $0.60, August live cattle up $0.85; August feeder cattle up $2.40, September feeder cattle up $2.30; June lean hogs up $1.53, and July lean hogs up $2.73.

LIVE CATTLE:

Heading into the weekend, the nearby live cattle contracts rounded out the week lower, while the deferred contracts held a mild rally ahead of the week's end. June live cattle closed $0.22 lower at $132.17, August live cattle closed $0.20 lower at $132.40 and October live cattle closed $0.12 lower at $138.05. Given that supplies of market-ready cattle are growing, and that packers sit on a healthy inventory of committed cattle, the market's trend is lower, both technically and fundamentally. What cattlemen need to cling to in the weeks ahead is slaughter data -- how many cattle are being killed on a weekly basis and how are carcass weighing performing? If packers continue to run a productive kill schedule, supplies will be worked through and hopefully the summer's low isn't unbearable. carcass weights are already decreasing, which means that packers will have to kill more cattle to get all the product they need. This week's cash cattle trade is looking like it's going to be less than 70,000 head but Monday's report will disclose the specifics. Throughout the week, Southern live cattle traded for $137 ($1.00 lower than a week ago) and Northern dressed cattle traded for $223 ($3.00 lower than a week ago).

Friday's slaughter is estimated at 120,000 head, 3,000 head less than a week ago and 3,000 head more than a year ago. Saturday's slaughter is projected to be around 25,000 head, 36,000 head less than a week ago and 8,000 head less than a year ago. This week's slaughter is estimated at 644,000 head, 36,000 head less than a week ago and 14,000 head more than a year ago.

Boxed beef prices closed higher: choice up $1.45 ($265.42) and select up $2.07 ($246.50) with a movement of 106 loads (48.25 loads of choice, 15.55 loads of select, 8.33 loads of trim and 33.73 loads of ground beef). Throughout the week choice cuts averaged $264.05 (up $3.02 compared to a week ago) and select cuts averaged $244.91 (down $0.88 compared to a week ago) and the week's total movement of cuts, grinds and trim totaled 632 loads.

TUESDAY'S CASH CATTLE CALL: Lower. Given that packers sit on ample supplies of cattle, they'll need to continue to buy enough cattle to keep procuring inventory for their deferred delivery needs, but otherwise their interest in cattle will remain limited.

FEEDER CATTLE:

With the corn complex rounding out the week on a higher note, and the live cattle complex not lending much support, the feeder cattle contracts ventured lower through Friday's end. August feeders closed $0.35 lower at $166.32, September feeders closed $0.42 lower at $169.30 and October feeders closed $0.72 lower at $171.82. The market will look for support again next week, but with live cattle trending lower, it's unlikely that feeders see much support infiltrate their marketplace as corn is still costly. Compared to two weeks ago at Stockmen's Livestock Exchange in Dickinson, North Dakota, feeder steers weighing 600 to 750 pounds traded $10.00 to $13.00 higher, and feeder heifers traded steady to $5.00 higher in a narrow comparison. The market saw extremely strong demand for weaned fall calves and yearlings. The market saw more interest than in weeks past as buyers are now able to kick the cattle, they buy out immediately onto grass. The CME Feeder Cattle Index for May 26: unavailable at this time.

LEAN HOGS:

The lean hog contracts traded mixed throughout the week, but the tone of the market remains strong. The key component of the lean hog complex's rally has been that both the futures market and fundamental aspects of the market (slaughter, consumer demand) have worked hand in hand to progress the market. Heading into next week's trade, the market will again yearn for strong consumer support as all hopeful that buying interest amps up heading into the summer months despite inflation conflicts. June lean hogs closed $0.70 lower at $110.40, July lean hogs closed $0.10 lower at $111.72 and August lean hogs closed $0.32 higher at $110.45. Pork cutouts total 283.12 loads wit 257.04 loads of pork cuts and 26.07 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: down $1.97, $106.16. Before heading into the long weekend, it is important to note that Germany has confirmed that a domestic pig farm near the French border has been confirmed to have African swine fever. The CME Lean Hog Index for May 25: up $0.53, $104.40.

Friday's slaughter is estimated at 456,000 head, 1,000 head less than a week ago and 31,000 head more than a year ago. Saturday's slaughter is projected to be around 11,000 head, 47,000 head less than a week ago and 10,000 head less than a year ago.

­­­­­TUESDAY'S CASH HOG CALL: Higher. Packers will likely need to replenish their inventory after the long holiday weekend.

Friday Midday Livestock Market Summary - Time Ticks Slowly Ahead of the Long Weekend for the Complex

GENERAL COMMENTS:

Largely, it's an uneventful day, as the livestock market longs for the weekend ahead. Trade will likely continue to roll throughout Friday afternoon and pick up dynamically come next week. July corn is up 13 1/4 cents per bushel and July soybean meal is up $4.90. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 357.57 points.

LIVE CATTLE:

The nearby live cattle contracts are keeping with their descend, while the deferred months see a little profit taking. June live cattle are down $0.20 at $132.20, August live cattle are down $0.37 at $132.22 and October live cattle are down $0.12 at $138.05. Given how much of the market's premium has eroded in the deferred months, any little victory for the back months will be warmly welcomed as, fundamentally speaking, the market should garnish higher prices as supplies of market-ready cattle will thinner then. Friday's cash cattle market hasn't seen an ounce of interest as the week's business is appearing to be done with. We know that this week's volume will be considerably thinner than weeks past, as packers have opted to pull on their supplies of cattle committed to them via deferred delivery instead of supporting the cash market. Throughout the week, Southern live cattle have traded for $137 ($1.00 lower) and Northern dressed cattle traded for $223 ($3.00 lower than last week).

Boxed beef prices are higher: choice up $0.96 ($264.93) and select up $2.26 ($246.69) with a movement of 68 loads (28.68 loads of choice, 6.14 loads of select, 5.10 loads of trim and 27.91 loads of ground beef).

FEEDER CATTLE:

The feeder cattle contracts are keeping with their descend as the market retracts thanks to Friday's rally in the corn market. With the corn complex rallying $0.11 to $0.12, and with the live cattle contracts aiding no substantial support in their nearby contracts and showing less and less confidence in the deferred months as the day trades on -- it's likely that Friday closes on a lower note for the feeder cattle market. August feeders are down $0.65 at $166.02, September feeders are down $0.60 at $169.12 and October feeders are down $0.85 at $171.70.

LEAN HOGS:

After rallying aggressively through Thursday's trade, the nearby lean hog contracts are trading lower while the deferred months add to their position. June lean hogs are down $0.85 at $110.25, July lean hogs are down $0.12 at $111.70 and August lean hogs are down $0.12 at $110.00. Given how bold and aggressive the market was earlier in the week, it's likely that the market drifts through the day not doing much and lets next week decide where the market shall go. Monitoring pork demand after the Memorial Day weekend will be key as it will strongly influence the market's nearby trajectory. Before heading into the long weekend, it is important to note that Germany has confirmed that a domestic pig farm near the French border has been confirmed to have African swine fever.

The projected lean hog index for May 26 is up $0.52 at $104.93, and the actual index for May 25 is up $0.52 at $104.40. Hog prices are lower on the Daily Direct Morning Hog Report, down $2.80 with a weighed average of $108.54, ranging from $107.50 to $116.50 on 3,591 head and a five-day rolling average of $111.08. Pork cutouts total 182.08 loads with 162.82 loads of pork cuts and 19.27 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: up $0.39, $108.52.

Friday Morning Livestock Market Update - Mixed Trading Activity Anticipated

GENERAL COMMENTS:

Live cattle were not impacted by lower corn prices as lower cash this week trumped any positive other news. Futures are not expected to see much volatility Friday as traders look to a three-day weekend. Export sales did not support the market as they were 14% below the previous week. Inflation is taking its toll on demand at a time when more cattle are available to the market. Boxed beef prices were higher with choice up $1.04 and select up $0.37. Cash business is basically finished for the week, providing nothing for traders to focus on Friday other than a longer weekend. Feeder cattle could not rally on lower corn prices, which has been the pattern recently. There seems to be an overriding bearishness to the market. The August contract takes over as the front month.

Hog futures rejected the lows Thursday and roared back to make new highs for the current uptrend. July led the charge with triple-digit gains in contracts throughout the rest of this year. Export sales were strong, up 52% from the previous week. China was listed as the third largest buyer and has been listed as a buyer for the past three weeks. Cutouts were higher at midday and were able to close $1.06 higher. Cash was lower with the National Direct Afternoon report showing a decline of $1.37. However, this had no impact as traders are focused on cutouts. Saturday slaughter is estimated at 10,000 head.

	BULL SIDE		BEAR SIDE
1)	Cattle weights are declining, resulting in more cattle needing to be purchased to obtain the tonnage needed to fill demand.	1)	Cash cattle were lower this week with anticipation for lower cash again next week. Packers are not in any hurry to bid up for cattle as they have been able to obtain supply for immediate needs as well as for the next few weeks.
2)	Cattle futures are oversold, which could trigger some short-covering into the extended weekend.	2)	Feeder cattle have been unable to find support from lower corn futures, casting a bearish cloud over the market. There is a chart gap below that may be filled soon.
3)	The trend of cutouts remains higher, indicating stronger demand. Retail will need to replenish pork after the Memorial Day weekend.	3)	Consumer demand for pork will need to remain strong after Memorial Day or cutouts may falter resulting in price weakness.
4)	The less than classic head and shoulders bottom in the June hog contract would meet the objective around $115.00.	4)	Packers may bid lower Friday as most of the business is finished for the week. They will buy hogs at a lower price if someone wants to sell them.

Thursday Closing Livestock Market Update - Cattle Carcass Weights Drop Significantly

GENERAL COMMENTS:

It was a mixed day for the livestock complex. The lean hog market saw substantial gains throughout its contracts, but the live cattle and feeder cattle contracts can't say the same. Given that Monday is a holiday, the market is expecting a quiet Friday ahead of the long weekend. Hog prices closed lower on the Daily Direct Afternoon Hog Report, down $1.27 with a weighted average of $111.35 on 7,515 head. July corn is down 7 1/4 cents per bushel and July soybean meal is up $4.00. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 516.91 points.

LIVE CATTLE:

From a technical sense Thursday, the market traded about as steady as it could. The nearby contracts closed the day with minor advancements while the deferred contracts closed just slightly lower. With corn prices being as expensive as they are, feeders are having a hard time justifying the cost of gains these cattle will take with what the board is portraying fats will be in the months ahead. June live cattle closed $0.10 higher at $132.40, August live cattle closed $0.07 higher at $132.60 and October live cattle closed $0.02 lower at $138.17. The cash cattle market saw a little more trade develop but it's looking like the bulk of this week's business is done with and that packers aren't going to buy many cattle this week. So far this week, Southern live business has been marked at mostly $137, $1 lower than last week's weighted averages. Northern dressed deals were at mostly $223, generally $3 lower than last week's weighted averages basis Nebraska. Thursday's slaughter is estimated at 124,000 head, 1,000 head less than a week ago and 3,000 head more than a year ago.

Thursday's actual slaughter data shared that for the week ending steers averaged 891 pounds (down 7 pounds from the week before, and 3 pounds less than a year ago) and heifers averaged 821 pounds (down 10 pounds from the previous week, and 2 pounds less than a year ago).

Beef net sales of 20,000 mt for 2022 were down 14% from the previous week, but up 3% from the prior four-week average. The three largest buyers were Japan (8,400 mt), South Korea (3,900 mt) and China (2,500 mt).

Boxed beef prices closed higher: choice up $1.04 ($263.97) and select up $0.37 ($244.43) with a movement of 134 loads (75.20 loads of choice, 19.67 loads of select, 12.64 loads of trim and 26.51 loads of ground beef).

FRIDAY'S CASH CATTLE CALL: Steady. Any more cattle that do trade will like be at steady money with the week's trend.

FEEDER CATTLE:

It was a depressing day for the feeder cattle contracts as the thinly traded market couldn't seem to must any support ahead of the day's close. August feeders closed $1.27 lower at $166.67, September feeders closed $1.32 lower at $169.72 and October feeders closed $1.10 lower at $172.55. The corn market wasn't to blame for Thursday's weaker tone as it too closed lower, but instead the market traded softer as traders watched the premiums in the deferred live cattle contracts fade away once again. Thankfully, sales throughout the countryside carried on with their business and saw excellent demand for heavier weighted feeders. At Winter Livestock Auction in Pratt, Kansas, on a run of 2,153 head, compared to last week, feeder steers weighing 650 to 950 pounds traded $8.00 to $12.00 higher. Feeder heifers weighing 750 to 950 pounds traded $2.00 to $4.00 higher. Heifers weighing 600 to 750 pounds sold $3.00 to $4.00 weaker. The CME Feeder Cattle Index for May 25: up $0.45, $153.80.

LEAN HOGS:

It was a dynamite day for the lean hog complex. First, the market opened Thursday's export data and was surprised to see a bullish report where sales were up big, and China was even an active buyer. From there, the contracts jumped $2.00 to $3.00 higher in the nearby months, while the deferred months followed closely behind. Heading into the afternoon, the market was hoping and praying that follow-through consumer support would be noted in the day's pork cutout report, and indeed it was with a $1.06 increase from Wednesday's value thanks to the $3.31 increase in hams, the $3.04 increase in butts and a $2.05 increase in bellies. Pork cutouts total 233.51 loads with 211.20 loads of pork cuts and 22.31 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: up $1.06, $108.13. Thursday's slaughter is estimated at 475,000 head, 2,000 head more than a week ago and 8,000 head less than a year ago. Wednesday's hog slaughter was revised to 472,000 head, which is 6,000 head more than what was originally stated. The CME Lean Hog Index for May 24: up $0.84, $103.87.

Thursday's actual slaughter data shared that for the week ending live hog weights averaged 291 pounds (down 2 pounds from the week before) and dressed hog weights averaged 218 pounds (down 1 pound from the previous week).

Pork net sales of 36,700 mt for 2022 were up 52% from the previous week and 39% from the prior four-week average. The three largest buyers were Mexico (15,100 mt), Canada (5,700 mt) and China (5,300 mt).

­­­­­FRIDAY'S CASH HOG CALL: Lower. Given that the market is preparing for a long weekend, it's likely that packers pay the cash market little attention ahead of the week and get back to buying hogs come Tuesday.

Thursday Midday Livestock Market Update - Hogs Trend Higher as Export Demand Sees Support

GENERAL COMMENTS:

Heading into Thursday's afternoon, hog participants are praying that the market's pork cutout values fare well through the day's close so that Friday's market can keep its upward projection. The cash cattle market hasn't seen any renewed interest and it's looking like the bulk of this week's business is done with. July corn is down 2 1/2 cents per bushel and July soybean meal is up $7.10. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 537.81 points.

LIVE CATTLE:

After absorbing Wednesday's weaker cash cattle trade, the live cattle contracts are teetering. One minute, they're trending slightly higher, and the next, they're trending somewhat lower. June live cattle are up $0.07 at $132.37, August live cattle are up $0.02 at $132.55 and October live cattle are steady at $138.20. After Wednesday's weaker, it's not that surprising to see the live cattle contracts trending slightly higher as the market continues to chop sideways. The cash cattle market hasn't seen any renewed interest, and at this point, it's looking like the bulk of this week's trade is done with. So far this week, Southern live trade has been marked at mostly $137, $1 lower than last week's weighted averages. Northern dressed deals were at mostly $223, generally $3 lower than last week's weighted averages basis Nebraska.

Beef net sales of 20,000 mt for 2022 were down 14% from the previous week, but up 3% from the prior four-week average. The three largest buyers were Japan (8,400 mt), South Korea (3,900 mt) and China (2,500 mt).

Boxed beef prices are higher: choice up $1.21 ($264.14) and select up $1.29 ($245.35) with a movement of 85 loads (50.89 loads of choice, 8.49 loads of select, 3.58 loads of trim and 22.10 loads of ground beef).

FEEDER CATTLE:

The feeder cattle contracts are trending lower as the market follows the lead of the live cattle complex. August feeders are down $1.35 at $166.60, September feeders are down $1.35 at $169.70 and October feeders are down $1.22 at $172.42. The corn complex isn't posing any pressure as it's trading steady to $0.03 lower in its nearby contracts, so Thursday's weaker market comes as a lack of support via technical support.

LEAN HOGS:

The lean hog contracts are having a stellar day with the nearby contracts rally $2.00 to $3.00 higher. June lean hogs are up $2.42 at $111.35, July lean hogs are up $3.67 at $111.52 and August lean hogs are up $2.25 at $109.95. The market is trending substantially higher, as it's thankful to have gotten strong export interest, and, if the morning's pork cutout report carries its higher note through the afternoon, then the day could be setup to see strong demand carry through the afternoon and help out Friday's market.

The projected lean hog index for May 25 is up $0.52 at $104.40, and the actual index for May 24 is up $0.84 at $103.88. Hog prices on the Daily Direct Morning Hog Report are lower, down $0.62 with a weighted average of $111.34, ranging from $104.00 to $116.50 on 7,243 head and a five-day rolling average of $111.79. Pork cutouts total 123.32 loads with 109.46 loads of pork cuts and 13.86 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: up $1.82, $108.89.

Pork net sales of 36,700 mt for 2022 were up 52% from the previous week and 39% from the prior four-week average. The three largest buyers were Mexico (15,100 mt), Canada (5,700 mt) and China (5,300 mt).

Thursday Morning Livestock Market Update - Directionless Trading Anticipated

GENERAL COMMENTS:

Live cattle opened higher Wednesday but could not hold onto those gains. Fundamentals are just not strong enough to trigger any widespread buying interest in traders. Weaker cash this week continues to leave June at a discount to cash with one month remaining for the contract. A lot can happen over the next month with the trade holding a discount, believing further weakness may develop. Packers have been able to purchase needed supply without difficulty, allowing for them to purchase a couple of weeks ahead of time. Boxed beef was lower with choice down $0.72 and select down $1.29. Feeder cattle closed mixed Wednesday, unable to gain from weaker corn prices. Further weakness in corn developed overnight but that may not have a large impact on activity today. Thursday is the last trading day for the May contract with August taking over as front-month. Weekly export sales are not expected to have a significant impact on the market.

Hog futures had a substantial price swing Wednesday with early strength succumbing to selling pressure into the close. Traders were disappointed with the direction of cutouts as the morning report showed lower prices. The final print for the day showed cutouts down $1.17. The National Direct Afternoon Hog report showed cash up slightly with a gain of $0.04. The question is whether packers will need to be more aggressive Thursday in their quest to maintain chain speed. Memorial Day weekend is nearly upon us with consumers having purchased their needs for the holiday. Product movement will be assessed next week, and orders placed accordingly. Weekly export sales may provide some impact on direction. Saturday slaughter is projected at 10,000 head.

	BULL SIDE		BEAR SIDE
1)	Lower corn futures overnight should provide some support to feeder cattle with the potential spillover into live cattle.	1)	Cattle did not react positively to lower corn futures yesterday with the same potential today. Corn prices still remain high.
2)	June live cattle hold a substantial discount to cash. Futures may begin to converge to cash soon.	2)	Packers have been able to purchase what they need for the week and have been able to contract supply for the next few weeks. This leaves them with the upper hand.
3)	Packers seem a bit light on their hog purchases so far this week and may be more aggressive Thursday. This could mean higher cash.	3)	Hogs failed in their attempt to move higher Thursday with the barometer being cutout values. Weakness of cutouts resulted in lower futures.
4)	Pork demand may be improving as the grilling season kicks off with Memorial Day. Strong demand over the weekend may find retailers increasing orders.	4)	Chart gaps remain substantially below current futures prices. Technical traders view that as a target.

Wednesday Closing Livestock Market Update - Pressure Builds for the Contracts

GENERAL COMMENTS:

Both the live cattle and lean hog contracts saw pushback develop ahead of Wednesday's close. In looking to Thursday's market, lower tones could find their way into the marketplace unless stronger fundamental support comes first. Hog prices closed higher on the Daily Direct Afternoon Hog Report, up $0.04 with a weighted average of $112.62 on 9,684 head. July corn is up 1/2 cent per bushel and July soybean meal is down $2.90. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 191.66 points.

LIVE CATTLE:

A swing and a miss comes with Wednesday's close as the live cattle contracts closed mostly lower, boxed beef prices closed lower and cash cattle traded lower too. June live cattle closed $0.42 lower at $132.30, August live cattle closed $0.22 lower at $132.52 and October live cattle closed $0.42 lower at $138.20. After Monday's impressive move, the market has stalled out technically and hasn't gotten the fundamental support it's needed in order to charge forward. There was a light trade reported in the North where dressed cattle sold for $223 to $225, mostly at $223, which is $3.00 lower. There were a few more deals reported in the South at $137, which is steady with Tuesday's business but $1.00 lower than last week. 

Wednesday's slaughter is estimated at 125,000 head, steady with a week ago and 4,000 head more than a year ago.

Boxed beef prices closed lower: choice down $0.72 ($262.93) and select down $1.29 ($244.06) with a movement of 102 loads (64.30 loads of choice, 19.63 loads of select, 6.60 loads of trim and 11.24 loads of ground beef).

THURSDAY'S CASH CATTLE CALL: Steady with the week's trend. Tuesday established prices in the South, and Wednesday established the week's prices in the North. Given that both regions have had cattle trade it's likely that any more cattle that trade trend steady with the week's tone.

FEEDER CATTLE:

The feeder cattle contracts closed mostly higher, although the August and September contracts both rounded out the day lower slightly lower. Feeders were able to keep their momentum through closing, as the corn market posed no real threat throughout Wednesday's market. The live cattle market was interesting to watch from a feeder perspective as the cash cattle market has yet to really trade a substantial volume of cattle, especially in the North. Given how complex the market's environment is (war in Ukraine, crop progress, inflation, questionable boxed beef demand), no one is falling asleep behind the wheel as the market is seeming to tread water until a clear trajectory is established. August feeders closed $0.20 lower at $167.95, September feeders closed $0.02 lower at $171.05 and October feeders closed $0.17 higher at $173.65. At Winter Livestock Auction in Dodge City, Kansas compared to a week ago feeder steers weighing 550 to 975 pounds traded $4.00 to $8.00 higher. There weren't enough steer calves to accurately test the market but of those weighing 400 to 550 pounds, a lower trend was obvious. Feeder heifers weighing 750 to 900 pounds sold steady to $2.00 higher. Heifers weighing 400 to 750 pounds traded unevenly steady. Demand was noted as good for cattle weighing more than 700 pounds, but moderate for those weighing under 700 pounds. Slaughter cows traded $1.00 to $2.00 lower and slaughter bulls sold $5.00 lower. The CME Feeder Cattle Index for May 24: up $0.18, $153.35.

LEAN HOGS:

Wednesday's market leaves an unsettled feeling for Thursday to either piece together and take higher or send lower. June lean hogs closed $0.02 higher at $109.05, July lean hogs closed $1.10 lower at $107.95 and August lean hogs closed $1.30 lower at $107.70. The front months of June, July and August hold a considerable premium to those of October 2022 and beyond, but in order for traders to feel comfortable continuing to support the nearby contracts, they're going to need to see stronger consumer demand. Cash prices did close slightly higher and on a considerable volume, but with the fact that Wednesday's slaughter speed was slower and that pork cutout prices closed weaker -- the market looks hesitantly toward Thursday. Pork cutouts totaled 244.00 loads with 220.57 loads of pork cuts and 23.44 loads of trim. Pork cutout values closed lower: down $1.17, $107.07. Wednesday's slaughter is estimated at 466,000 head - 13,000 head less than a week ago and 21,000 head less than a year ago. The CME Lean Hog Index for May 23: up $0.95, $103.03.

­­­­­THURSDAY'S CASH HOG CALL: Steady. Packers are going to be active buyers in Thursday's market as they've not gotten a plethora of hogs committed this week, but prices could swing either way as supplies are still thin.

Wednesday Midday Livestock Market Summary - Midweek Point Brings Ample Support to Contracts

GENERAL COMMENTS:

Thus far, it's been a rather supportive and encouraging day for the livestock sector. The live cattle and feeder cattle contracts are trading higher, as the corn market works its way lower, and feedlots are anxiously sitting around waiting for a bid. Meanwhile, the nearby lean hog contracts are trading higher as the market found support Tuesday afternoon with a higher cash market and stronger pork cutout values. July corn is down 7 1/2 cents per bushel and July soybean meal is down $6.40. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 47.33 points.

LIVE CATTLE:

The live cattle contracts are again trading higher as the market finds ample technical support and likes to see that processing speeds are keeping with their vigorous pace, and that boxed beef demand has grown firmer. June live cattle are up $0.20 at $132.92, August live cattle are up $0.12 at $132.87 and October feeder cattle are up $0.05 at $138.67. Given that the market is far from resistance, its upward potential isn't limited so long as the fundamental side of the market holds somewhat steady. The country saw a little bit of business develop Tuesday afternoon but largely the market has still yet to trade for the week. Asking prices for the day are noted at $138-plus in the South and $226-plus in the North, and bids of $222 to $224 are being offered in Nebraska but otherwise the market is quiet.

Boxed beef prices are mixed: choice down $0.35 ($263.30) and select up $0.29 ($245.64) with a movement of 54 loads (35.65 loads of choice, 10.41 loads of select, zero loads of trim and 7.49 loads of ground beef).

FEEDER CATTLE:

As the corn market continues to cascade lower, the feeder cattle contracts are pushing a modest rally as the day finds support from weaker inputs and modest support from the live cattle market. August feeders are up $0.50 at $168.70, September feeders are up $0.55 at $171.62 and October feeders are up $0.80 at $174.27. So much of the feeder cattle market's outcome depends on the corn market right now. Yes, the country needs rain, yes, the market needs to see strong consumer demand, but with cost of gains already historically high -- feeder cattle buyers are glued to the corn market as it dictates what they can afford to pay for feeders. Given that early summer sales are about to begin in a month, everyone is scrambling to get a gauge on what feeder cattle prices could be this year.

LEAN HOGS:

After rounding out lower Tuesday afternoon, the nearby lean hog contracts are back to rallying modestly while the deferred months aren't so optimistic. June lean hogs are up $0.40 at $109.42, July lean hogs are up $0.27 at $109.30 and August lean hogs are up $0.07 at $109.10. The hog market is relying on unanimous support in order to keep its market trending higher. So, on Monday afternoon, when pork cutout values closed lower and cash prices saw little interest, Tuesday's market was cautious as it needed to see better support. Thankfully, by Tuesday's end, the market was again supported by the cash market and by pork cutout values. Come Wednesday, traders are back to working the front months higher. Much of Thursday's outcome will depend on how trade handles itself this afternoon.

The projected lean hog index for May 24 is up $0.84 at $103.88, and the actual index for May 23 is up $0.96 at $103.04. Hog prices are higher on the Daily Direct Morning Hog Report, up $0.57 with a weighted average of $111.96, ranging from $100.00 to $116.50 on 7,414 head and a five-day rolling average of $111.48. Pork cutouts total 141.83 loads with 132.25 loads of pork cuts and 9.58 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: down $1.06, $107.18.

Wednesday Morning Livestock Market Update - Lower Corn May Support Cattle

GENERAL COMMENTS:

Live cattle just could not muster sufficient trader interest to push futures to strong gains. Traders are taking a wait-and-see attitude over just how cash will shake out this week. There was some light trade in the South $1.00 lower than last week, but nothing that traders could hang their hats on. Packers are not expected to be aggressive this week, so it will be up to the feedlots as to at what price they will be willing to part with their cattle. The weakness of corn Tuesday and, again, weakness overnight might give feedlots more confidence to hold for steady cash. Boxed beef was mixed with choice down $0.63 and select up $1.12. Feeder cattle may see further gains as overnight corn futures show further weakness. The potential corn export agreement between China and Brazil may reduce export demand and price, making feeding cattle a bit less expensive.

Hog futures looked somewhat dismal earlier Tuesday as contracts fell over $3.00 at one point. However, as strong cash began developing and cutouts showed promise, futures reduced some of the losses. The National Direct Afternoon Hog report showed an impressive jump of $6.33. Packers definitely needed hogs. Cutouts increased $1.19, keeping the trend of higher cutouts intact. Futures will need to regain Tuesday's losses to keep the uptrend intact. Futures are not overbought, which should provide technical traders some confidence that the market may have further upside potential.

	BULL SIDE		BEAR SIDE
1)	Lower corn prices could cause feedlots to hold for mostly steady cash this week. There is potential for further losses in corn due to a pending export agreement between China and Brazil.	1)	Initial trade for cattle took place $1.00 lower than last week. This may be an indication as to the level at which packers will be willing to pay.
2)	June cattle hold a significant discount to cash, and it seems traders have already looked past the bearish Cattle on Feed report.	2)	There will be a lot of cattle that will be available to the market over the next weeks, which may keep upside potential limited.
3)	Hog futures rebounded from the lows Tuesday as cash and cutouts pointed higher. Strength may unfold Wednesday.	3)	It may be difficult for futures to regain the losses of Tuesday if cash and cutouts are unable to follow through Wednesday or the rest of the week.
4)	Hog supplies seem to be more current, which requires packers to be more aggressive. Supplies are expected to tighten as the year progresses.	4)	Seasonal demand will need to carry through after Memorial Day or prices may stall. Consumers are seeing widespread higher food prices.

Tuesday Closing Livestock Market Update - Depressed Corn Prices Opens Gate to Higher Feeders

GENERAL COMMENTS:

The corn market's weakness allowed for the feeder cattle contracts to gain a significant $2.00 to $3.00 through Tuesday's trade. The live cattle contracts rounded out the day mostly higher, seeing just modest pushback in their nearby contracts. The lean hog complex saw its contracts close lower but the market's pork cutouts and cash market both saw substantial support, which could mean that the market stands a chance at trading higher come Wednesday. Hog prices closed higher on the Daily Direct Afternoon Hog Report, up $6.33 with a weighted average of $112.58 on 8,900 head. July corn is down 14 1/2 cents per bushel and July soybean meal is up $4.60. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 48.38 points.

LIVE CATTLE:

The live cattle market saw mild gains in its deferred contracts, but the June and August contract rounded out the day slightly lower. June live cattle closed $0.05 lower at $132.72, August live cattle closed $0.22 lower at $132.75 and October live cattle closed $0.25 higher at $138.62. Seeing the deferred months add a little to their contracts is incredibly important as it not only affects the live cattle market and its prices, but the feeder cattle sector too. In a month, early feeder cattle buyers will be looking at summer sales to fill some of their orders, and if the deferred months of the live cattle market aren't promising, it's hard to buy cattle with feed as expensive as it is. The cash cattle market saw a little bit of trade develop in the South where live deals were marked at $137 ($1.00 lower than last week). Bids of $138 were offered in Nebraska but they weren't taken. A very few head of cattle traded in Iowa, but certainly not enough to say that any sort of trend was established for the North. Some cattle did trade in Tuesday's market, but especially in the North prices are still undetermined for the week. 

Tuesday's slaughter is estimated at 125,000 head, steady with a week ago and 3,000 head more than a year ago.

Boxed beef prices closed mixed: choice down $0.63 ($263.65) and select up $1.12 ($245.35) with a movement of 165 loads (92.38 loads of choice, 31.35 loads of select, 9.28 loads of trim and 32.01 loads of ground beef).

WEDNESDAY'S CASH CATTLE CALL: Steady to $1.00 lower. Given that feedlots let bids pass them by in the North, there's a slim chance that feedlots may be able to hold the market steady in the North. The biggest problem is that packers have a significant number of cattle already committed to them in the deferred delivery, so they won't be pressured into buying anything they don't want to.

FEEDER CATTLE:

The feeder cattle contracts rallied aggressively throughout Tuesday's market and used the day's opportunity of a weaker corn complex to quickly add back some position. August feeder cattle closed $2.52 higher at $168.15, September feeders closed $2.77 higher at $171.07 and October feeders closed $2.72 higher at $173.47. The corn contracts ended up closing $0.13 to $0.14 lower in their nearby contracts as the news of China and Brazil reaching an export agreement that would allow Brazil to export corn into China (pending China's Ag Ministry's approval) worried the market. China is and will likely always be a wildcard, so closely monitoring this development is crucial. The CME Feeder Cattle Index for May 23: up $0.45, $153.17.

LEAN HOGS:

The lean hog complex closed lower as the market hungered for fundamental support and wasn't confident in the day's midday reports that support would be sufficient. June lean hogs closed $1.35 lower at $109.02, July lean hogs closed $1.80 lower at $109.05 and August lean hogs closed $1.22 lower at $109.00. Given that both pork cutout values and cash prices saw substantial support in the day's closing reports, the ball will again be in traders' court as the fundamental side of the market closed stronger. Ribs and bellies saw the biggest price jumps -- ribs up $3.58 ($203.75) and bellies up $6.75 ($174.43). The cash market significantly picked up its pace as just shy of 9,000 head traded and prices were $6.33 higher. Pork cutouts total 304.45 loads with 264.65 loads of pork cuts and 39.80 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: up $1.19, $108.24. Tuesday's slaughter is estimated at 473,000 head, 4,000 head less than a week ago and 9,000 head less than a year ago. Monday's slaughter was revised to 464,000 head, 9,000 head less than what was originally stated. The CME Lean Hog Index for May 20: up $0.91, $102.08.

­­­­­WEDNESDAY'S CASH HOG CALL: Steady to somewhat higher. Given that pork cutout values showed support through Tuesday's close, it's likely that packers are active in Wednesday's market.

Tuesday Midday Livestock Market Update - Hogs Hit the Pause Button

GENERAL COMMENTS:

From Monday's market, the livestock contracts have flipped positions as the cattle complex has found support and lean hog are trending lower. The hog market's pause on its ascend comes as fundamental support lags. Traders need to continue to see strong cash interest from packers and a supporting pork cutout value in order to keep prices trending higher. July corn is down 22 3/4 cents per bushel and July soybean meal is up $2.10. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 263.09 points.

LIVE CATTLE:

The live cattle market is keeping with its elevated tone and modestly pushing the contracts higher except for the spot August contract, which is seeing minor pushback. The live cattle market is somewhat holding its breath as the market's technicals have strengthened somewhat with boxed beef prices trending higher and traders interested in supporting the market. However, the fate of the cash cattle market isn't going to change in the near future. As supplies begin to overwhelm the market, packers are able to sit back and let shows build to the point where feedlots are begging for any bid, let alone a decent one. Nevertheless, the cash cattle market hasn't seen any interest thus far in the day, and it's likely that packers show the market very little interest this week as they sit on large numbers of cattle committed in their deferred delivery. Asking prices in the South are noted at $140 and the North has yet to disclose their asking prices.

Boxed beef prices are higher: choice up $0.64 ($264.92) and select up $1.91 ($246.14) and with a movement of 77 loads (41.61 loads of choice, 19.19 loads of select, 3.56 loads of trim and 12.57 loads of ground beef).

FEEDER CATTLE:

As the corn market dives $0.19 to $0.22 lower in its nearby contracts, the feeder cattle market wastes no time springing to a $3.00 rally. August feeders are up $3.05 at $168.67, September feeders are up $3.20 at $171.50 and October feeders are up $3.02 at $173.77. Largely, the feeder cattle market's strength comes from a two-sided combo as corn prices take a turn for lower prices and, given the vast downfall that feeders had last week, the market can rally its position without any nearby fears of resistance pressure. The market will closely watch corn prices heading into the afternoon -- any support the live cattle market can lend will only strengthen feeders.

LEAN HOGS:

Last week, the lean hog complex was able to rally as the market's technicals and fundamentals worked together to advance the market higher. But with Monday's mixed close (a higher futures market and stronger slaughter pace, but a weak cash market and weaker pork cutout value), Tuesday's market is left to sort out the find details. June lean hogs are down $1.45 at $108.92, July lean hogs are down $1.60 at $109.25 and August lean hogs are down $1.67 at $108.55. In order for traders to feel comfortable in pushing the market any higher, they'll need to see strong cash interest and demand from consumers.

The projected lean hog index for May 23 is up $0.95 at $103.03, and the actual index for May 20 is up $0.91 at $102.08. Hog prices on the Daily Direct Morning Hog Report average $111.39, ranging from $100.00 to $113.50 on 1,990 head and a five-day rolling average of $110.27. Pork cutouts total 164.12 loads with 142.24 loads of pork cuts and 21.88 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: up $0.81, $107.86.

Tuesday Morning Livestock Market Update - Futures May Consolidate

GENERAL COMMENTS:

Cattle rebounded after being oversold into the Cattle on Feed report. The market was overdone to the downside, resulting in the general pattern of moving in the opposite direction of what the report would indicate. Gains were not very impressive as the market continues to deal with the strong potential of lower cash again this week. Sure, futures are holding a discount to cash; but that might be warranted. Showlists are higher this week, which provides packers the ability to bid lower as they certainly are not short bought on cattle. The Cold Storage report showed beef supplies up 18% from a year ago. The Commitment of Traders report showed funds as net sellers of 4,321 contracts, bringing their net-long positions to 25,628 contracts.

Hogs extended the gains of last week with June closing above the 50% retracement level. This could continue to provide technical strength to the market as the next level of chart resistance is about $3.00 higher. That will need to be supported by cash, which floundered Monday, closing $6.72 lower on the National Direct Afternoon Hog report. Cutouts have been very strong but showed slight weakness Monday, closing $0.06 lower. Packers may not be very aggressive Tuesday, but lower prices could increase their desire to step up more aggressively. Pork in cold storage was 16% higher than a year ago during the month of April. Pork belly stocks were 67% higher than a year ago. The Commitment of Traders report showed funds as net sellers of 10,045 contracts, reducing their net-long positions to 10,563 contracts.

	BULL SIDE		BEAR SIDE
1)	Follow-through buying in cattle might take place Tuesday due to the bounce Monday and the minor pressure overnight on the corn market.	1)	Both live cattle and feeder cattle futures made new lows before turning higher. Fundamentals suggest this is a correction of being oversold rather than a change in trend.
2)	Cattle futures may have established a technical reversal Monday, which could trigger further buying as the market corrects an oversold condition.	2)	Higher showlists and packers already having a significant amount of cattle contracted for the next few weeks do not bode well for higher prices.
3)	June hog futures closed above the 50% retracement level, which could bring in further technical buying.	3)	The strength of hog futures Monday was not supported by cash. This could stall the rally unless further cash strength is realized.
4)	Demand has improved as pork cutouts have increased dramatically. Packers may remain aggressive as they need to maintain a strong slaughter pace.	4)	Hog futures may consolidate as traders wait to see whether cutouts will continue to trend higher.

Monday Closing Livestock Market Update - Support Leads Contracts to Higher Close

GENERAL COMMENTS:

It was a day when constant gains were seen throughout the livestock complex. The fundamental side of the hog market has some reassuring to do if the hog contracts are going to continue their upward climb through the later part of the week. Hog prices closed lower on the Daily Direct Afternoon Hog Report, down $6.72 with a weighted average of $106.25 on 3,061 head. July corn is up 7 1/2 cents per bushel and July soybean meal is down $7.40. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 618.34 points.

Monday's Cold Storage report shared that red meat supplies in freezers were up 4% from the previous month and up 16% from last year. Total pounds of beef in freezers were down 1% from the previous month but up 18% from last year. Frozen pork supplies were up 9% from the previous month and up 16% from last year. Stocks of pork bellies were up 3% from last month and up 67% from last year.

LIVE CATTLE:

The live cattle contracts rounded out the day fully higher, with the biggest gains seen in their nearby contracts. June live cattle closed $1.20 higher at $132.77, August live cattle closed $1.42 higher at $132.97 and October live cattle closed $0.95 higher at $138.37. The market sits in a bit of a predicament -- a bit of a waiting game. Yes, boxed beef prices closed higher and processing speeds continue to run vigorously, but the fact that packers have ample supplies of cattle committed in their deferred delivery and that supplies are going to become more overwhelming weighs negatively on the market. Seasonally the live cattle market always gets weaker in the summer months and the market is braced for that reality. Showlists are higher in all three feeding states this week, and that's likely going to be trend of the market until these record on feed numbers are worked through. There were a few cattle that traded in Kansas for $138 and it's noted that their headed to Nebraska where supplies are thinner. With that being said, trade isn't expected to really break loose until Tuesday or Wednesday, and even then, it's likely that packers don't pay that much attention to the cash market and that prices are lower. 

Monday's slaughter is estimated at 125,000 head, 1,000 head more than a week ago and 8,000 head more than a year ago.

Last week's negotiated cash cattle trade totaled 89,873 head. Of that, 56% (50,021 head) are committed for the nearby delivery, while the remaining 44% (39,852 head) are committed for the deferred delivery.

Boxed beef prices closed higher: choice up $2.11 ($264.28) and select up $1.21 ($244.23) with a movement of 125 loads (62.56 loads of choice, 27.62 loads of select, 10.02 loads of trim and 24.74 loads of ground beef).

TUESDAY'S CASH CATTLE CALL: $2.00 to $3.00 lower. Given that packers have thousands of cattle committed to them for this time, it's unlikely that the cash market sees much support. Prices are likely to the lower and volumes thin.

FEEDER CATTLE:

The feeder cattle contracts closed higher as the market batted for a bit of a recovery after last week's tumultuous tumble. August feeders closed $1.70 higher at $165.62, September feeders closed $1.30 higher at $168.30 and October feeders closed $1.17 higher at $170.75. The corn contracts closed higher too, but after last week's sharp sell-off, the feeder cattle complex is far from any resistance pressure. At Oklahoma Regional Stockyards in Oklahoma City, Oklahoma, compared to last week at their midsession point feeder steers were trading $2.00 to $4.00 lower, and feeder heifers traded unevenly steady. Steer and heifer calves were trading $2.00 to $4.00 lower. The CME Feeder Cattle Index for May 20: down $0.33, $152.72.

LEAN HOGS:

The lean hog complex made it through the first trading day of the week with all its contracts closing higher and with slaughter keeping an aggressive pace. The market's disappointing components were what the cash market only saw 3,061 head trade (for weaker prices) and that pork cutout values dipped slightly. Heading into Tuesday's market, it wouldn't be surprising if traders were cautious as they look for follow-through fundamental support. June lean hogs closed $1.50 higher at $110.37, July lean hogs closed $1.85 higher at $110.85 and August lean hogs closed $2.05 higher at $110.22. Pork cutouts total 271.29 loads with 222.92 loads of pork cuts and 48.37 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: down $0.06, $107.05. Monday's slaughter is estimated at 473,000 head, 3,000 head more than a week ago and 6,000 head less than a year ago. The CME Lean Hog Index for May 19: up $0.80, $101.17.

­­­­­TUESDAY'S CASH HOG CALL: Steady. Normally I'd say that even with a slightly lower cash market on a Monday, Tuesday should show more promise, but upon knowing how many hogs packers bought last week, and with pork cutout values wavering ever so slightly, packers may not jump aggressively into this week's cash market until the market shows more promise fundamentally.

Monday Midday Livestock Market Summary - Hogs Trudge Higher to Start the Week

GENERAL COMMENTS:

With Monday's arrival, the support and ambition that carried the lean hog contracts higher last week has shown up once again. The cattle complex isn't as confident as the market sees mixed interest from traders and knows that its cash outcome is bleak. July corn is up 5 3/4 cents per bushel and July soybean meal is down $7.80. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 651.95 points.

LIVE CATTLE:

The nearby contracts of June, August and October are trading higher, but the premiums in the deferred months are continuing to slip away in the live cattle market. June live cattle are up $0.75 at $132.32, August live cattle are up $0.35 at $131.90 and October live cattle are up $0.12 at $137.55. With 2022 corn prices all trending above $7.30 per bushel, the cattle feeding business is continuing to be a challenge to pencil in, as inputs are bewildering. With last week's cash market committing 44% of its entire purchase for the deferred delivery (15 to 30 days out), this week's cash cattle market will be pressured again as showlists are growing and packers' need to support the cash market is continuing to wither away. Last week boxed beef prices did show an improvement from the week before, and moving ahead, monitoring beef slaughter and boxed beef prices will be incredibly important as it could be a signal how the weeks ahead will behave.

Last week's negotiated cash cattle trade totaled 89,873 head. Of that, 56% (50,021 head) are committed for the nearby delivery, while the remaining 44% (39,852 head) are committed for the deferred delivery.

Boxed beef prices are higher: choice up $1.53 ($263.70) and select up $2.16 ($245.18) with a movement of 67 loads (32.06 loads of choice, 10.54 loads of select, 4.63 loads of trim and 19.59 loads of ground beef).

FEEDER CATTLE:

The feeder cattle contracts are posing a modest rally after last week's solid five-day trading regression. Given that the feeder cattle contracts have plummeted to new lows, the fact that the corn contracts are trading mildly higher isn't pressuring for the time being. The feeder cattle contracts aren't expected to recover much position as input costs are exuberant and the live cattle market is heading into June with record on feed numbers and the undeniable fact that cash prices are going to get cheaper. August feeders are up $0.12 at $164.05, September feeders are up $0.07 at $167.07 and October feeders are up $0.15 at $169.72.

LEAN HOGS:

The lean hog market keeps trending higher as pork cut values show support again early in the week and traders are appearing more confident in pork demand as summer temperatures begin to favor the idea of grilling season. June lean hogs are up $1.10 at $109.97, July lean hogs are up $1.20 at $110.25 and August lean hogs are up $1.17 at $109.35. In order for the market to keep its upward trend, it's vital that pork cutout values continue to see support. There's a stark difference between the nearby market's reality and that of the deferred months. In the months of June, July and August, limited hog supplies and seasonal demand are expected to keep the market elevated, but come the later part of the year, supplies could become overwhelming and ultimately lead the market to lower price points.

The projected lean hog index for May 20 is up $0.91 at $102.08 and the actual index for May 19 is up $0.80 at $101.17. Hog prices are unavailable on the Daily Direct Morning Hog Report due to confidentiality. However, we can see that 2,731 head have traded and that the five-day rolling average now sits at $109.06. Pork cutouts total 158.97 loads with 127.00 loads of pork cuts and 31.97 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: up $0.71, $107.82

Monday Morning Livestock Market Update - Uncertain Beginning to Week

GENERAL COMMENTS:

The awaited Cattle on Feed report was released on Friday and was not quite what the trade anticipated. Both on feed at 102% and placements at 99% were higher than anticipated. This is the second consecutive month that the estimates for placements were significantly below the actual. This is not a supportive report in light of the inflationary period we are in as well as the concern about a recession. If slaughter pace slows somewhat, cattle may back up into the market. Carcass weights declined last week and still cash is struggling as packers had purchased sufficient head for the week as well as some for the next few weeks. Cash does not look promising this week with some initial calls for another $1.00 to $2.00 lower. However, if futures do what they often do after a report, they may move higher Monday. The market may have already factored in the report with the weakness last week resulting in some short-covering Monday. Boxed beef prices were mixed on Friday with choice up $0.47 and select down $1.04.

Hog futures closed very strong on Friday, resulting in an impressive weekly gain of $8.13 for the June contract. Futures struggled briefly early in Friday's trade, but early cash activity pointed to higher prices. The National Direct Afternoon Hog report showed cash up an impressive $2.46 to end the week. Not only this, but cutouts jumped $3.65, ending a week of strong gains. Traders seem convinced higher prices are yet to come as long as packers remain aggressive and cutouts continue higher. Technically, June futures will reach 50% retracement around $110, which could provide some resistance. A push above that may take futures higher.

	BULL SIDE		BEAR SIDE
1)	Marketings were right on trade estimates for the Cattle on Feed report, which may provide some support.	1)	Cattle futures could not find support despite the weakness of corn prices. Fundamentals were too bearish to trade higher as they generally would.
2)	The cattle market moved lower into Friday's report, which may result in a rebound due to traders already having a bearish report factored in and being technically oversold.	2)	There is anticipation of lower cash castle trade again this week as cattle need to come to the market and packers already have some forward contracted.
3)	Hogs made impressive gains in both cash and cutouts last week with the momentum anticipated to carry over this week.	3)	Packers may find more hogs available due to the impressive increase of prices last week. More hogs may be pulled forward to take advantage of the higher prices.
4)	Slaughter pace has increased, resulting in packers having to be more aggressive in their search for hogs.	4)	Short-covering may have run its course with futures possibly taking a breather as traders assess demand.

Friday Closing Livestock Market Update - Cattle Lower While Hogs Grow Stronger

GENERAL COMMENTS:

While the cattle contracts kept with their descend through closing Friday, the lean hog complex opted to grow stronger as the day traded on. Hog prices closed higher on the Daily Direct Afternoon Hog Report, up $2.46 with a weighted average of $112.97 on 7,040 head. July corn is down 4 1/2 cents per bushel and July soybean meal is up $4.60. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 49.67 points.

From Friday to Friday, livestock futures scored the following changes: June live cattle off $0.50, August live cattle off $0.80; May feeder cattle off $4.47, August feeder cattle off $4.10; June lean hogs up $8.13, July lean hogs up $7.80.

LIVE CATTLE:

It was a painstaking week for the live cattle complex. The cash cattle market traded $2.00 to $3.00 lower, packers bought very few cattle compared to the last month's standard, and throughout most of the week the board was severely pressured. June live cattle closed $0.07 higher at $131.57, August live cattle closed $0.47 lower at $131.55 and October live cattle closed $0.57 lower at $137.42. Unfortunately, the market's pressure isn't expected to ease any time soon. As packers strategically bought cattle over the last month with the deferred delivery option, their need to pick up more cattle in the spot cash market is thin. This works beautifully for them as they can opt out of supporting the cash cattle market for the next couple of weeks and watch showlists grow, which will again support their position when they need to step back into the cash market. Throughout the week, Southern live cattle traded for $136 to $138, $2.00 lower; and Northern dressed cattle traded for $223 to $228, $3.00 lower than last week's market.

The May 1 on feed report listed 12.0 million head, up 2% from May 2021, the highest May 1 inventory since the series began in 1996. Placements in April totaled 1.81 million head, 1% below last year; marketing's in April totaled 1.89 million head, 2% less than the prior year; other disappearance in April totaled 54,000 head, 2% under the same time last year. Click here to read DTN's full COF comments:

Friday's slaughter is estimated at 123,000 head, 3,000 head more than a week ago and 4,000 head more than a week ago. Saturday's slaughter is projected to be around 58,000 head, 16,000 head more than a week ago and 22,000 head less than a year ago. This week's slaughter is estimated at 680,000 head, 23,000 head more than a week ago and 8,000 head more than a year ago.

Boxed beef prices closed mixed: choice up $0.47 ($262.17) and select down $3.04 ($243.02) with a movement of 90 loads (41.68 loads of choice, 15.65 loads of select, 17.56 loads of trim and 14.75 loads of ground beef). Throughout the week choice cuts averaged $261.03 (up $4.08 from a week ago) and select cuts averaged $245.79 (up $2.61 from last week) and the week's total movement of cuts, grinds, and trim totaled 525 loads.

MONDAY'S CASH CATTLE CALL: $2.00 to $3.00 lower. With packers having cattle committed well into June, their likelihood of supporting the cash market in the weeks ahead in little to none. Prices will likely be lower and volumes will be thin.

FEEDER CATTLE:

It was another day when the feeder cattle contracts traded lower as the market summoned virtually no support. It was hard for the feeder cattle contracts to gain any momentum as the live cattle market saw its deferred contracts erode, which bodes negatively for feeders as it steals some of their upward potential. May feeders closed $0.72 lower at $153.40, August feeders closed $1.27 lower at $163.92 and September feeders closed $0.90 lower at $167.00. Oklahoma's Weekly Cattle Auction Summary shared that, compared to last week, feeder steers sold $1.00 to $3.00 lower and feeder heifers traded $3.00 to $6.00 lower. Demand was light to moderate for feeder cattle throughout the week, as the corn prices held feeders lower and the live cattle market lent no support. The auction summary noted that, "an interesting note for the week though was the percent of feeder cattle being sold. This week, compared to last week for the state, Oklahoma was down about 5% in cattle being sold over 600 pounds. Some individual sales showed a decline in cattle sold over 600 pounds by about 10%. This is a big deal, as typically many cattle are moving off graze-out wheat this time of year." Steer and heifer calves sold $2.00 to $8.00 lower and multiple sales reported an increase of un-weaned calves selling. Slaughter cows traded steady to $2.00 higher, and lean cows traded $5.00 higher, slaughter bulls traded $1.00 higher. The CME Feeder Cattle Index for May 19: down $0.41, $153.05.

LEAN HOGS:

It was a day of widespread wins for the lean hog complex as pork cutout prices closed higher, the cash market saw a significant volume trade at higher money and the futures market grew stronger as the day traded on. June lean hogs closed $3.57 higher at $108.87, July lean hogs closed $2.02 higher at $109.00 and August lean hogs closed $2.05 higher at $108.17. Ham prices saw the biggest jump in Friday's closing report, as they grew $9.65 stronger and were followed closely by picnic prices, which jumped $6.07 from Thursday. The futures market's performance was phenomenal throughout the week, but the cash market's ability to push prices higher and sell significant volumes of hogs this past week cannot be overlooked either. This past week was a perfect storm for the lean hog market as, fundamentally, the market was supported through good action in the cash market and, technically speaking, traders were active participants in the market too. So long as pork cutouts continue to print higher figures, then the market stands a strong chance at summoning support again next week. Pork cutouts totaled 215.54 loads with 196.42 loads of pork cuts and 19.12 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: up $3.65, $107.11. Friday's slaughter is estimated at 457,000 head, 19,000 head more than a week ago and 6,000 head less than a year ago. Saturday's slaughter is projected to be around 58,000 head, 10,000 head more than a week ago and 27,000 head more than a year ago. The CME Lean Hog Index for May 18: up $0.29, $100.37.

­­­­­MONDAY'S CASH HOG CALL: Steady to somewhat higher. The cash market saw stellar interest throughout the week, and given that pork demand seems to be gaining momentum, it's likely that packers are aggressive in next week's market too.

Friday Midday Livestock Market Summary - Cattle Dig a Deeper Hole

GENERAL COMMENTS:

The livestock complex is a dreary place to be if you're in the cattle market, but the lean hog contracts are holding their own heading into Friday's afternoon. Friday afternoon the cattle market will see another Cattle on Feed report released, which will be the center of the market's attention Friday afternoon. July corn is down 7 cents per bushel and July soybean meal is up $3.10. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 354.02 points.

LIVE CATTLE:

The live cattle market hasn't seen much support through Friday's trade and it's likely that the day rounds out the week with this lower tone. June live cattle are up $0.05 at $131.60, August live cattle are down $0.40 at $131.62 and October live cattle are down $0.47 at $137.52. The combination of the marketplace's worrisome tone, as it watches our economy crumble, along with the cash cattle market's measly interest and questionable boxed beef demand has the live cattle market quivering. But to be fair to the market and understand its seasonality, keep in mind that prices all fall lower heading into the summer months as supplies of market-ready cash cattle become ample. The cash cattle market hasn't seen any renewed interest and it's likely that the week's business is done with. Throughout the week, Southern live cattle have traded for $136 to $138 ($2.00 lower) and Northern dressed cattle traded for $223 to $228 ($3.00 lower).

Boxed beef prices are mixed: choice up $1.08 ($262.78) and select down $1.03 ($245.03) with a movement of 58 loads (25.61 loads of choice, 8.50 loads of select, 12.35 loads of trim and 11.92 loads of ground beef).

FEEDER CATTLE:

The recent change in corn/feeder cattle prices has shifted as the feeder cattle market watches the deferred live cattle contracts venture lower. When the live cattle market's deferred 2022 contracts held substantial premium to the spot market, feeders were hopeful that the input prices that it requires to feed cattle today would be compensated with stronger fat cattle prices toward the year's end. However, as the live cattle market falls under pressure, feeders are thankful to see the corn market's regression but are uneasy as the live cattle market isn't seeing the support it had earlier. August feeders are down $1.00 at $164.20, September feeders are down $0.85 at $167.05 and October feeders are down $0.70 at $169.50.

LEAN HOGS:

While the rest of the livestock complex trends lower, the lean hog contracts are grabbing all they can take heading into Friday's afternoon. June lean hogs are up $2.10 at $107.40, July lean hogs are up $0.85 at $107.82 and August lean hogs are up $0.60. The market has seen tremendous support both technically and fundamentally as pork cutout values and the cash hog market has been supportive. Traders are looking at the market and analyzing their positions, so long as support continues to flow into the marketplace, it's likely that they continue to support it as well.

The projected lean hog index for April 19 is up $0.80 at $101.17, and the actual index for May 18 is up $0.29 at $100.37. Hog prices are higher on the Daily Direct Morning Hog Report, up $2.02 with a weighted average of $112.25, ranging from $104.00 to $118.00 on 5,870 head and a five-day rolling average of $108.26. Pork cutouts total 160.27 loads with 148.31 loads of pork cuts and 11.95 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: up $5.18, $108.64.