Thursday Closing Livestock Market Update - Feeder Cattle Market Shoots Higher on Cheaper Corn and Strong Sales

GENERAL COMMENTS:

Thursday ended up being a mixed day for the livestock complex as the feeder cattle market charged higher and helped aid on higher trade throughout the live cattle contracts, but the lean hog market couldn't shake the fact that processing speeds have been lagging and demand hit and miss from consumers. Hog prices closed $2.27 lower on the Daily Direct Afternoon Hog Report, equating to a weighted average of $118.91 on 6,604 head. December corn is down 34 cents per bushel and December soybean meal is down $0.30. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 253.88 points.

LIVE CATTLE:

The live cattle market leaned on the feeder cattle market to help carry it higher throughout Thursday's trade and thankfully, it worked. The steep regression in corn prices helped the live cattle market trade slightly higher despite that the week's cash cattle market trade steady to $1.00 lower and on thin volumes. It's important to note, however, that the market is hovering at its nearby support plane and that next week a decision to hold steady or to break lower will likely be the market's focus. August live cattle closed $0.40 higher at $132.57, October live cattle closed $0.12 lower at $138.77 and December live cattle closed $0.25 higher at $144.87. The cash cattle market didn't see much more trade develop throughout the day as packers did most of their buying on Wednesday. A few head did trade in Texas for $137, but otherwise the market sat idle. Throughout the week, Southern live cattle have traded for $138, which is steady to $1.00 lower than last week. Northern dressed cattle have traded for $234, which is steady to $1.00 lower as well. Thursday's slaughter is estimated at 124,000 head, 2,000 head more than a week ago and 7,000 head more than a year ago.

Beef net sales of 17,000 mt for 2022 were up 52% from the previous week and 6% from the prior four-week average. The three largest buyers were South Korea (5,100 mt), China (4,500 mt) and Japan (2,000 mt).

Thursday's Actual Slaughter data shared that, for the week ending June 18, steers averaged 879 pounds which is steady with a week and year ago. Heifers averaged 810 pounds, which is 4 pounds lighter than the previous week and 3 pounds lighter than a year ago.

Boxed beef prices closed lower: choice down $0.88 ($264.00) and select down $0.24 ($240.57) with a movement of 102 loads (64.19 loads of choice, 20.81 loads of select, 9.13 loads of trim and 7.57 loads of ground beef).

FRIDAY'S CASH CATTLE CALL: Steady with the week. It's unlikely that Friday's market will see much interest given that it's the day before a long weekend and it's looking like packers have already gotten most of their buying done for the week.

FEEDER CATTLE:

The feeder cattle market had a turn and burn type of day as the corn market closed $0.20 to $0.35 lower thanks to multiple pressuring factors, but largely due to an unfavorable nearby weather outlook for the crop. Nevertheless, the corn market's weakness came at a perfect time for the feeder cattle market as, throughout the week, sales have seen excellent interest from buyers as they aggressively fill their orders this week knowing that next week sales will be closed for the Fourth of July holiday. August feeders closed $2.87 higher at $173.60, September feeders closed $2.45 higher at $176.22 and October feeders closed $2.27 higher at $178.67. At OKC West Livestock Auction in El Reno, Oklahoma, compared to last week, feeder steers under 850 pounds traded $1.00 to $3.00 higher, but those over 850 pounds traded $1.00 to $3.00 lower. Feeder heifers traded $2.00 to $5.00 lower. Steer calves traded $3.00 to $6.00 higher and heifer calves sold $2.00 to $4.00 higher. The CME Feeder Cattle Index for June 29: up $2.36, $166.44.

LEAN HOGS:

The lean hog market had a downward trending day as the complex continues to stress over waning processing speeds and the hit and miss interest in pork products. July lean hogs closed $0.27 lower at $109.12, August lean hogs closed $1.47 lower at $102.10 and October lean hogs closed $2.05 lower at $88.67. Thankfully the market had a supportive export report and pork cutout values did close higher for the day, but these supportive traits weren't enough to push traders into turning the market higher. Pork cutouts totaled 246.53 loads with 221.38 loads of pork cuts and 25.15 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: up $3.09, $108.56. Thursday's slaughter is estimated at 458,000 head, 7,000 head less than a week ago and 3,000 head more than a year ago. The CME Lean Hog Index for June 28: down $0.38, $111.26.

Thursday's Actual slaughter Data shared that, for the week ending June 18, live weights averaged 288 pounds (down 2 pounds from the week before) and dressed weights averaged 215 pounds (down 2 pounds from the previous week too).

Pork net sales of 32,300 mt for 2022 were up 27% from the previous week and from the prior four-week average. The three largest buyers were Mexico (20,700 mt), Japan (3,700 mt) and Australia (2,700 mt).

­­­­­FRIDAY'S CASH HOG CALL: Lower. Given that Friday will be the last trading day for the week ahead of long-weekend, it's unlikely that the cash market sees much interest as packers will likely resume buying next week as opposed to chasing the market on Friday.

Thursday Midday Livestock Market Update - Feeders Charge Ahead as Corn Dips Lower and Buyers Bid Aggressively at Sales

GENERAL COMMENTS:

The live cattle market is trading mixed into Thursday afternoon as the cattle contracts find themselves fully supported, but the lean hog contracts are being pushed lower as pork cutout prices and slaughter speeds have been lagging. The gust of support that's infiltrated the cattle market has largely come from the feeder cattle market as sales are reporting sharply higher prices and the corn market is again trading lower. December corn is down 22 3/4 cents per bushel and December soybean meal is up $5.70. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 74.99 points.

LIVE CATTLE:

The live cattle contracts are rallying into Thursday's afternoon as the market picks up some of the momentum stemming from the feeder cattle market, and as it thankfully absorbs Thursday's stronger export report. August live cattle are up $0.57 at $132.75, October live cattle are up $0.22 at $139.12 and December live cattle are up $0.45 at $145.07. The board thankfully didn't break below its resistance at $132.00 and seems to be confidently trading higher even though cash prices didn't run higher this week. The cash cattle market hasn't seen any renewed interest and it's likely that the bulk of this week's business is done with. So far this week, Southern live business has been marked at mostly $138, that is steady to roughly $1 lower than last week's weighted averages. Northern dressed deals were marked at mostly $234, not quite $1 lower than last week's weighted average basis in Nebraska. Colorado had some late sales at $145, about steady with last week's weighted average.

Beef net sales of 17,000 mt for 2022 were up 52% from the previous week and 6% from the prior 4-week average. The three largest buyers were South Korea (5,100 mt), China (4,500 mt) and Japan (2,000 mt).

Boxed beef prices are lower: choice down $1.00 ($263.88) and select down $0.41 ($240.40) with a movement of 68 loads (46.47 loads of choice, 13.00 loads of select, 4.34 loads of trim and 3.93 loads of ground beef).

FEEDER CATTLE:

If you've been paying attention to feeder cattle sales this past week, you know and understand just how strong the cash feeder cattle market is. Thankfully Thursday's board has come to its senses and is now trading higher as the market absorbs the robust sales that Wednesday reported and the lower corn prices in Thursday's market. August feeder cattle are up $2.65 at $173.37, September feeder cattle are up $2.25 at $176.02 and October feeders are up $2.17 at $178.57.

LEAN HOGS:

You would have thought that Wednesday's neutral to slightly favorable Quarterly report would have helped the lean hog complex find footing in Thursday's market, but that hasn't been the case. July lean hogs are down $0.52 at $108.87, August lean hogs are down $2.12 at $101.45 and October lean hogs are down $2.02 at $88.57. What seems to be pressuring the market more than anything is the combination of weaker pork cutout values and waning slaughter speeds. It was positive to see 32,300 mt of pork reported in Thursday's morning export data, and export data will continue to be a factor of the market that needs watched closely as moving product could help with prices later into 2022.

Pork net sales of 32,300 mt for 2022 were up 27% from the previous week and from the prior 4-week average. The three largest buyers were Mexico (20,700 mt), Japan (3,700 mt) and Australia (2,700 mt).

The projected lean hog index for 6/29/2022 is down $0.40 at $110.84, and the actual index for 6/28/2022 is down $0.38 at $111.24. Hog prices are lower on the Daily Direct Morning Hog Report, down $3.75 with a weighted average of $116.11, ranging from $112.00 to $123.00 and on 4,039 head and a five-day rolling average of $117.72. Pork cutouts total 114.91 loads with 97.79 loads of pork cuts and 17.12 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: down $1.47, $107.09.

Thursday Morning Livestock Market Update - Hog Report May Support Futures

GENERAL COMMENTS:

Feedlots were resolved to hold out for steady to higher cash early in the week. Steady cash was obtained in some areas of the South along with $1.00 lower as well. The North saw generally $1.00 lower trade. Packers had sufficient cattle purchased ahead and were unwilling to bid higher to fill in the rest of their needs ahead of the July 4^th weekend. After two very strong weeks of cash gains, feedlots decided steady to slightly lower cash was not all that bad for now. Boxed beef took a hit with choice down $2.26 adding to the decline Tuesday and effectively eliminating the strong gain seen on Monday. Select cuts declined $2.50. Export sales will need to be good to keep prices from drifting lower. Today is the last day to trade June live cattle with August taking over as front month on Friday.

The much-anticipated Quarterly Hogs & Pigs report came and went without much fanfare. The report was neutral for slightly friendly with the actual for most categories slightly below expectations. Every category on the report came in at 99% of a year ago. Hogs kept for breeding was the only category that was just slightly higher than trade estimates but still below a year ago. Cash was higher on the National Direct Afternoon report with a gain of $1.40. Cutouts jumped $3.09 on good movement. Hog weights for the week ending June 25 showed a decline of 3 pounds from the previous week. This is still 3 1/2 pounds higher than a year ago but moving in the right direction. Saturday slaughter is estimated at 9,000 head.

	BULL SIDE		BEAR SIDE
1)	June finishes trading today with August taking over as front month on Friday and is carrying a large discount to cash.	1)	Even with the neutral to friendly Cattle on Feed report last week, cattle futures are struggling to find support.
2)	Cattle futures have been under pressure for six of the last seven trading days and are ready for a bounce likely into the holiday weekend.	2)	With consumer confidence at the lowest level in 16 months, there are concerns over beef demand as the year progresses.
3)	Hog futures have been struggling to find footing over the past week. The neutral to slightly friendly Hogs & Pigs report might support prices.	3)	Hog slaughter continues to run significantly below the year-ago level which keeps sufficient hogs available to the market.
4)	Declining hog weights are expected during the summer but a decline of 3 pounds last week should be supportive.	4)	Packers may not be willing to pay more for hogs the rest of the week as has generally been the pattern.

 

Wednesday Closing Livestock Market Update - Cash Cattle Trade Mostly Steady to $1.00 Lower

GENERAL COMMENTS:

The cash cattle market saw trade develop throughout the day at steady to $1.00 lower in the South and mostly $1.00 lower in the North. Heading into Thursday's market, both the cattle and hog markets are hopeful for strong export interest. Hog prices closed higher on the Daily Direct Afternoon Hog Report, up $1.40 with a weighted average of $121.18 on 12,187 head. December corn is down 5 1/2 cents per bushel and July soybean meal is up $8.10. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 82.32 points.

LIVE CATTLE:

Feedlots did a good job in waiting the day out and trying to push packers for more money (especially in the North), but heading into the holiday weekend, packers weren't budging and cattle ended up trading steady to $1.00 lower in the South and $1.00 lower in the North. As the board has become subject to more technical pressure, as June expires and August takes the center stage, traders haven't been willing to put much support in the market and it's taken the wind out of the cash cattle market's rally. In the South, live cattle traded for $138, and in the North dressed cattle traded for mostly $234. August live cattle closed $0.55 lower at $132.17, October live cattle closed $0.50 lower at $138.90 and December live cattle closed $0.62 lower at $144.62. The market hopes that export interest helps boost the market's tone heading into the later part of the week. 

Wednesday's slaughter is estimated at 124,000 head, 2,000 head less than a week ago and 4,000 head more than a year ago.

Boxed beef prices closed lower: choice down $2.26 ($264.88) and select down $2.50 ($240.81) with a movement of 118 loads (61.93 loads of choice, 38.23 loads of select, 5.72 loads of trim and 12.56 loads of ground beef).

THURSDAY'S CASH CATTLE CALL: Steady with the week. Given that cattle have now traded in both regions, prices are set for the week.

FEEDER CATTLE:

The corn market closed mostly lower, other than in the July contract which was able to walk away with a $0.10 rally while the rest of the market closed $0.05 to $0.06 lower. Needless to say, the slight pressure that came from the corn market, coupled with the fact that cash cattle began to sell for steady to $1.00 cheaper in both the North and South, didn't lend the market any support. August feeders closed $1.10 lower at $170.72, September feeders closed $1.17 lower at $173.77 and October feeders closed $1.10 lower at $176.40. At Hub City Livestock Auction in Aberdeen, South Dakota, compared to two weeks ago, the best test was seen on steers weighing 850 to 900 pounds as they sold $2.00 to $3.00 higher, but steers weighing 1,000 to 1,050 pounds traded steady to $3.00 lower and heifers weren't well tested. The CME Feeder Cattle Index for June 28: down $0.12, $164.08.

LEAN HOGS:

Wednesday's Quarterly Hogs and Pigs report came as mixed news. It was encouraging, given that both throughput and pork demand have been questionable variables of the market, to see that the June 1 inventory totaled 72,524 million head, which was down 1% from a year ago and down just slightly from the previous quarter, and it's the lowest inventory that the nation has seen since 2018. What was somewhat challenging in the report was to see the weight breakdown of the marketable hogs and that all weight divisions were down only by 1%. Given that the deferred months of December 2022 and February 2023 are selling with a sizable discount to the rest of the market because of demand concerns, the market needs to see more interest develop to keep the contracts from drifting lower. Besides from the Quarterly report, it was positive to see how the cash hog market and pork cutout values closed higher. Unfortunately, that didn't help the nearby contracts, but the deferred months were able to close with a modest advancement. July lean hogs closed $0.52 lower at $109.40, August lean hogs closed $0.25 lower at $103.57 and October lean hogs closed $0.52 higher at $90.72. Pork cutouts total 246.53 loads with 221.38 loads of pork cuts and 25.15 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: up $3.09, $108.56. Wednesday's slaughter is estimated at 466,000 head, 3,000 head less than a week ago and 4,000 head more than a year ago. The CME Lean Hog Index for June 27: up $0.29, $111.64.

­­­­­THURSDAY'S CASH HOG CALL: Lower. Given that we're headed into a holiday weekend, it's likely that packers aren't much more aggressive in this week's market.

Wednesday Midday Livestock Market Summary - Northern Feedlots Push Packers for More

GENERAL COMMENTS:

It's an important day for the livestock complex as the cash cattle traders are battling out this week's market, and the hog complex is anxiously waiting for Wednesday afternoon's Quarterly report. The South has seen cattle trade at $138 which is steady to $1.00 lower, but so far, the North hasn't budged on their want to push prices higher again this week. December corn is down 4 1/2 cents per bushel and July soybean meal is up $8.90. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 30.53 points.

LIVE CATTLE:

Once again Southern feedlots have begun to sell their week's supply of cattle, but the North isn't willing to compromise and take these steady prices. Northern feedlots are keenly aware of how thin supplies are in their region, and they seem to be unwilling to squander this opportunity to push the market higher as they hold substantial leverage in the market right now. Some Southern cattle have sold for $138 in Texas and Kansas, which is steady to $1.00 lower, and bids are being offered in Nebraska at $148 but feedlots aren't biting at that offer. The board isn't lending any support as it continues to fall lower and pressure nearby support. August live cattle are down $0.45 at $132.35, October live cattle are down $0.40 at $139.00 and December live cattle are down $0.55 at $144.70.

The Fed Cattle Exchange Auction held Wednesday reported 10 lots, totaling 1,628 head of cattle, all listings were for Texas. Only 1 lot (265 head) sold at $138.

Boxed beef prices are lower: choice down $1.59 ($265.55) and select down $1.98 ($241.33) with a movement of 56 loads (30.48 loads of choice, 15.97 loads of select, 0.02 loads of trim and 9.69 loads of ground beef).

FEEDER CATTLE:

The quite nature of this week's cash cattle market has left the feeder cattle market to fend for itself while the corn complex scraps to regain some ground. The market's pressure comes from seeing the July corn contract trade confidently $0.12 higher, but the rest of the nearby corn contracts are steadily trading $0.02 to $0.03 lower into the afternoon. Thankfully buyers have continued to support this week's market in the countryside as they know that most sales will be shut down next week for the 4th of July holiday, and if they want to get cattle bought before the middle of July, now's the time. August feeders are down $0.97 at $170.82, September feeders are down $1.20 at $173.75 and October feeders are down $1.25 at $176.37.

LEAN HOGS:

The lean hog market is again seeing mixed interest from traders as the market's nearby contracts fall slightly lower, but the deferred months of 2022 trend higher into the 2023 contracts. July lean hogs are down $0.52 at $109.40, August lean hogs are down $0.20 at $103.62 and October lean hogs are up $0.30 at $90.50. it's been a tough week for the market thus far with both processing speeds waning and pork cutout values trending lower. The market is hopeful that Wednesday afternoon's Quarterly Hogs and Pigs report will help bring back interest into the market, but time will tell.

The projected lean hog index for June 28 is down $0.38 at $111.24, and the actual index for June 27 is up $0.27 at $111.62. Hog prices are higher on the Daily Direct Morning Hog Report, up $5.32 with a weighted average of $119.86, ranging from $112.50 to $125.00 on 7,640 head and a five-day rolling average of $118.13. Pork cutouts total 148.30 loads with 135.22 loads of pork cuts and 13.08 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: up $4.91, $110.38.

Wednesday Morning Livestock Market Update - Hog Traders to Prepare for Hogs and Pigs Report

GENERAL COMMENTS:

Traders saw nothing to generate buying interest in futures yesterday. The focus is on the cash market. Feedlots are looking for nothing less than steady cash last week with feedlots in the North having not revealed any offers as of yet. Today will likely be a day of reckoning as business should surface to get accomplished what needs to be done. Front month June live cattle goes off the board Thursday with August taking over. China relaxing its quarantine policy may provide support for beef and commodities in general. China has been a major buyer with overall U.S. beef exports setting new records this year. Boxed beef took away some of the strong gains seen for choice cutouts on Monday with price down $1.54 yesterday with select down $1.93.

Pork cutouts have not performed well so far this week with another large decline of $3.56 yesterday. Cash was higher on the National Direct Afternoon Hog report showing a gain of $4.65. Slaughter pace is really suffering with the revised number for Monday being only 450,000 head and running well below last week and a year ago. As with beef, China relaxing its COVID quarantine policy may increase its demand for pork. The Quarterly Hogs & Pigs report will be the focus of trading today. The average estimate is for All hogs and pigs at 99.3%, kept for breeding at 98.9% and kept for marketing at 99.3%. The report will be released at 2 pm Central time.

	BULL SIDE		BEAR SIDE
1)	The Cattle of Feed report indicates potentially tight cattle supplies in the fourth quarter. Futures support that potential.	1)	Cattle have not been able to find support from the neutral to friendly Cattle on Feed report last week. They are struggling to find footing.
2)	August cattle futures will take over as the front month on Friday carrying a substantial discount to cash. This discount may be reduced or eliminated in the near future.	2)	August live cattle futures anticipate further cash weakness through the summer.
3)	Hog futures are near the bottom of the range and with the selling of the past two days, there may be short covering prior to Hogs & Pigs report.	3)	Hog futures have been in a sideways range with prices near technical support. If support is penetrated, further selling might take place.
4)	Strong cash yesterday may indicate increased demand activity requiring packers to increase slaughter pace.	4)	Slow slaughter pace keeps hogs backed up and readily available to packers. This leaves them less aggressive as they do not have to scour the countryside to find them.

Tuesday Closing Livestock Market Update - Hog Market Ready for Wednesday's Quarterly Hogs and Pigs Report

GENERAL COMMENTS:

It was a lower waning day for the livestock complex as the live cattle, feeder cattle and lean hog contracts all saw lower closes on the day. Wednesday afternoon's Quarterly Hogs and Pigs report is going to be highly sought after and it's expected to shape the market's nearby trend. Cash cattle business should begin to develop by midmorning Wednesday and prices could be higher. Hog prices closed higher on the Daily Direct Afternoon Hog Report, up $4.65 with a weighted average of $119.78 on 8,752 head. July corn is up 15 1/4 cents per bushel and July soybean meal is up $12.40. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 491.27 points.

LIVE CATTLE:

The live cattle contracts kept with their lower move through Tuesday's close as traders seem unwilling to support the market until they're given some sort of fundamental reassurance. August live cattle closed $0.75 lower at $132.72, October live cattle closed $0.72 lower at $139.40 and December live cattle closed $0.55 lower at $145.25. The cash cattle market didn't see much business develop throughout Tuesday's hours as packers know that Northern feedlots aren't going to be pushed into selling their cattle for cheaper money, and it's looking like Southern feedlots are hungry to better prices too. Asking prices in the Sough have been pinned at $140, and the North has yet to share their initial asking price for the week. Nevertheless, the slight uptick in boxed beef prices and the undeniable fact that showlists are still manageable leads one to confidently believe that prices could be steady to somewhat higher again this week.

Boxed beef prices closed lower: choice down $1.54 ($267.14) and select down $1.93 ($243.31) with a movement of 154 loads (93.28 loads of choice, 29.78 loads of select, 18.73 loads of trim and 11.76 loads of ground beef).

WEDNESDAY'S CASH CATTLE CALL: Steady to somewhat higher. Given that cattle have yet to trade, it's very likely that the market sees higher prices when the cash cattle market does indeed start to sell cattle. The upside potential of this week's market will really depend on how badly packers need cattle and in what region they're needing them in.

FEEDER CATTLE:

With the corn market keeping its $0.08 to $0.15 rally through closing, the feeder cattle complex trended lower throughout the day and didn't even attempt to lift its head and trade higher. August feeders closed $2.30 lower at $171.82, September feeders closed $1.85 lower at $174.95 and October feeders closed $1.42 lower at $177.50. The feeder cattle market's pressures and lack of support were multifaceted, as not only were corn prices higher, but the live cattle market lent no support, as its contracts closed lower and the cash cattle market has yet to really trade cattle and determine a tone for the week. At Oklahoma National Stockyards in Oklahoma City, Oklahoma, compared to last week, feeder steers over 800 pounds traded $2.00 to $6.00 higher, but those under 800 pounds traded steady to $2.00 lower. Feeder heifers sold $1.00 to $4.00 lower. Steer and heifer calves both traded $2.00 to $4.00 higher. The CME Feeder Cattle Index for June 27: up $1.11, $164.20.

LEAN HOGS:

The lean hog complex continued to free-fall lower throughout Tuesday's close and rounded out the day fully lower. July lean hogs closed $0.25 lower at $109.92, August lean hogs closed $1.05 lower at $103.82 and October lean hogs closed $0.82 lower at $90.20. The market is holding above its nearby support plane of $103.25, but the market's pressure is undeniable as waning processing speeds, weakening pork cutout values and depressed futures market all takes its toll on the complex. Traders and hog producers alike are hoping to gain more clarity and understanding of both the market's nearby and long-term trajectories from Wednesday's Quarterly report, which will be shared at 2:00 p.m. CDT. The average estimates for the report shared that all hogs and pigs are estimated at 99.3%, kept for breeding at 98.9% and kept for marketing at 99.3%. Pork cutouts total 322.31 loads with 284.30 loads of pork cuts and 38.01 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: down $3.56, $105.47. Tuesday's slaughter is estimated at 450,000 head, 18,000 head less than a week ago and 13,000 head less than a year ago. Monday's slaughter was revised to 458,000 head, 8,000 head less than what was originally stated. The CME Lean Hog Index for June 23: up $0.44, $111.35.

­­­­­WEDNESDAY'S CASH HOG CALL: Steady to somewhat higher. Packers weren't overly aggressive in Tuesday's market, yes prices jumped higher, but less than 9,000 hogs traded.

Tuesday Midday Livestock Market Summary - Markets Drift Lower

GENERAL COMMENTS:

The market hasn't seen a tremendous amount of support come its way since Tuesday's arrival, but once the cash cattle market begins to trade, the live cattle market could see more support and, for hogs, everyone is seeming to wait the week out until they see the Quarterly report. Meanwhile, the feeder cattle market's run has been short cut as corn prices work their way higher in Tuesday's market. July corn is up 17 1/2 cents per bushel and July soybean meal is up $13.70. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 174.67 points.

LIVE CATTLE:

The live cattle contracts are running into Tuesday's afternoon mostly lower as the complex floats, seeming to wait for the cash cattle market to set the week's tone. August live cattle are down $0.47 at $133.02, October live cattle are down $0.52 at $139.60 and December live cattle are down $0.32 at $145.47. Tuesday's lower move doesn't really push the market substantially lower, but it keeps the complex moving well within its sideways range until traders can deem higher or lower movements appropriate for the week. Packers haven't shown the cash market much interest at this point, but bids could begin to develop by the afternoon. Some early asking prices are noted at $140 in the South but are still inconclusive in the North. Given that market-ready supplies of cattle are thin in the North, it's unlikely that packers get cattle bought for anything less than steady.

Boxed beef prices are mixed: choice down $1.75 ($266.93) and select up $0.04 ($245.28) with a movement of 92 loads (66.11 loads of choice, 13.77 loads of select, 3.38 loads of trim and 8.31 loads of ground beef).

FEEDER CATTLE:

As the corn market steps out and pushes a $0.09 to $0.15 rally, the feeder cattle market is trading lower as it's closely watching and trying to gauge how much strength the corn market's rally possesses. August feeders are down $1.57 at $172.55, September feeders are down $1.35 at $175.45 and October feeders are down $1.02 at $177.90. While the board may be undergoing some pressure come Tuesday, the feeder cattle market in the countryside has seen strong demand this week as buyers know that there won't be sales next week as auction houses take a week off for the Fourth of July holiday.

LEAN HOGS:

The lean hog market is keeping with its downward trend and, as pork cutout values neglect to show any support, that has the market's attitude grim. July lean hogs are down $0.05 at $110.12, August lean hogs are down $0.57 at $104.30 and October lean hogs are down $0.70 at $90.32. By Wednesday afternoon, the market should be free to either get busy trading higher or turn South and fully commit to trading lower as the industry will finally have the latest Quarterly report. The average estimates for the report shared that all hogs and pigs are estimated at 99.3%, kept for breeding at 98.9% and kept for marketing at 99.3%. More cash interest should develop throughout the afternoon as packers weren't aggressive buyers in Monday's market.

The projected lean hog index for June 27 is up $0.27 at $111.62 and the actual index for June 24 is up $0.45 at $111.35. Hog prices are higher on the Daily Direct Morning Hog Report, up $0.31 with a weighted average of $114.54, ranging from $111.50 to $123.75 on 3,651 head and a five-day rolling average of $117.40. Pork cutouts total 150.26 loads with 119.16 loads of pork cuts and 31.10 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: down $0.67, $111.53.

Drought Continues to Play Significant Role in Cattle Cycle

Drought is playing a significant role in the cattle cycle. Two years of drought have deteriorated pasture and forage conditions, and the pastureland condition index for 2022 is off to its worst start for the grazing season since the series began in 1995 

This is pushing calves into feedlots at a faster pace, which will likely quicken the pace of fed cattle slaughter in 2022, leaving fewer supplies of cattle available for slaughter in late 2022 and 2023.

Furthermore, drought conditions and higher operating costs have encouraged the rapid culling of beef cows in first-quarter 2022 to levels not seen in decades. Also, based on the USDA Agricultural Marketing Service reports for actual weekly slaughter under federal inspection, April 2022 showed the highest number of beef cows slaughtered for the month since 1996; there were over 5 million more beef cows on Jan. 1, 1996, than Jan. 1 of this year. Subsequently, the outlook weakens for potential calf crops in 2022 and 2023, further reducing potential cattle placements year over year in late 2022 and early 2023.

June 1 Cattle on Feed Up 1%

OMAHA (DTN) -- Cattle and calves on feed for the slaughter 
market in the United States for feedlots with capacity of 1,000 
or more head totaled 11.8 million head on June 1, 2022. The 
inventory was 1% above June 1, 2021. This is the highest June 1 
inventory since the series began in 1996, USDA NASS reported on 
Friday.

Placements in feedlots during May totaled 1.87 million head, 2% 
below 2021. Net placements were 1.79 million head. During May, 
placements of cattle and calves weighing less than 600 pounds 
were 370,000 head, 600-699 pounds were 270,000 head, 700-799 
pounds were 465,000 head, 800-899 pounds were 469,000 head, 900-
999 pounds were 220,000 head, and 1,000 pounds and greater were 
75,000 head.

Marketings of fed cattle during May totaled 1.91 million head, 
2% above 2021.

Other disappearance totaled 76,000 head during May, 13% above 
2021.

DTN ANALYSIS

"Believe it or not, Friday's Cattle on Feed report did indeed 
share that total on-feed numbers for June 1 totaled 11,846,000 
head -- which is 1% above that of a year ago and the highest 
June 1 inventory since the series began in 1996," said DTN 
Livestock Analyst ShayLe Stewart. "The states that saw the 
biggest on-feed increases when compared to a year ago were 
California up 5% (570,000 head), Nebraska up 4% (2,530,000 
head), Texas up 3% (2,940,000 head) and Arizona up 3% (286,000 
head). But when compared to a month ago, the only state that saw 
an increase was Texas, and only by an addition of 1%. 

                      USDA Actual   Average Estimate       Range
On Feed June 1            101%         101.5%       101.3-101.9%
Placed in May              98%          99.7%        99.2-101.6%
Marketed in May           102%         103.0%       102.4-104.1%

Tuesday Morning Livestock Market Update - Traders Remain Cautious Ahead of Cash

GENERAL COMMENTS:

Lower corn prices may have feedlots feeling good about holding out for higher cash this week. The past two weeks showed aggressive packer buying and that may not be the end of it. Sure, they have some cattle purchased ahead but not a large amount that will allow them to sit back. Showlists are not showing an abundance of cattle for the week. Feedlots may not sell cattle too readily this week as lower corn prices and the cash momentum are on their side. Boxed beef made a surprising increase yesterday of $3.70 higher for choice and $0.22 higher for select. Higher corn futures today may temper some of the strength of feeders.

Hogs could not follow through on the rebound on Friday. Cutouts were pointing lower on the midday report and fell substantially when the final tally for the day was done with a loss of $3.17. The National Direct Afternoon report showed cash down a whopping $5.10. the combination of cash and cutouts did not support futures. The supportive aspect was that futures did not fall any more than they did. This was likely due to the upcoming Hogs & Pigs report that will be released tomorrow. Traders will position themselves for the report. The average estimate is for All hogs and pigs at 99.3%, kept for breeding at 98.9% and kept for marketing at 99.3%.

	BULL SIDE		BEAR SIDE
1)	Feedlots will be holding for higher cash as packers will need cattle to maintain the brisk slaughter pace.	1)	Packers paid up significantly over the past two weeks with the potential for them not needing to be aggressive the week before July 4.
2)	Strong boxed beef yesterday may indicate renewed demand interest. Consumers are adjusting to inflation and may keep beef an important part of their diets.	2)	The price action of futures over the past week does not indicate a strong market technically.
3)	Hog futures held well in the face of substantial weakness of cash and cutouts. Packers are expected to be more aggressive today.	3)	Both cash hogs and cutouts fell significantly yesterday which does not bode well for price strength.
4)	Traders hold some optimism that Hogs and Pigs report on Wednesday will be supportive to the market.	4)	Packers continue to obtain hogs without having to be very aggressive.

Monday Closing Livestock Market Update - Cattle Take Positive Momentum

GENERAL COMMENTS:

The cattle contracts rallied throughout Monday's market, and feedlots desperately hope that this stronger tone trails into the middle part of the week and helps maintain a strong cash market. The lean hog complex veered lower as traders seem to be looking for a better understanding of the market's trajectory, which will hopefully come in Wednesday's report. Hog prices closed lower on the Daily Direct Afternoon Hog Report, down $5.10 with a weighted average of $115.13 on 4,586 head. July corn is down 6 cents per bushel and July soybean meal is up $10.10. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 62.42 points.

LIVE CATTLE:

The live cattle market waltzed through Monday's trade with a stronger tone, but the spot August live cattle contract didn't overwork itself by any measure. August live cattle closed $0.10 higher at $133.47, October live cattle closed $0.37 higher at $140.12 and December live cattle closed $0.55 higher at $145.80. What was incredibly surprising about Monday's market was the uptick in boxed beef prices. Over the last three weeks, boxed beef prices have trended mostly lower, but come Monday, choice cuts closed over $3.00 higher and select cuts closed slightly higher as well. Packers were able to get close to 94,590 head of cattle bought last week, and 28% of them were committed for the deferred delivery. Boxed beef prices are expected to trend lower in July, like they usually do, but if prices can show some support this week, it may entice packers to keep scouting the cash market and keep prices elevated through the week. No bids or asking prices were noted throughout Monday's market and it's likely that trade waits until Wednesday to really develop. New showlists appear to be mixed higher in Nebraska/Colorado, but lower in Kansas and Texas. 

Monday's slaughter is estimated at 125,000 head, 1,000 head more than a week ago and 6,000 head more than year ago.

Last week's negotiated cash cattle trade totaled 94,598 head. Of that 72% (68,048 head) were committed for the nearby delivery, while the remaining 28% (26,550 head) were committed for the deferred delivery.

Boxed beef prices closed higher: choice up $3.70 ($268.68) and select up $0.22 ($245.24) with a movement of 99 loads (55.75 loads of choice, 24.06 loads of select, 6.80 loads of trim and 11.98 loads of ground beef).

TUESDAY'S CASH CATTLE CALL: Steady to somewhat higher. Given that supplies of market-ready cattle are so thin in the North, it's likely that feedlots hold out until later in the week for the prices they want, but Southern feedlots could sway either way.

FEEDER CATTLE:

It was an easy day for the feeder cattle contracts to close higher as the corn market traipsed anywhere from $0.06 to $0.21 lower and the deferred live cattle contracts continue to show promise of higher prices. August feeder cattle closed $1.62 higher at $174.12, September feeder cattle closed $1.72 higher at $176.80 and October feeder cattle closed $1.85 higher at $178.92. As corn prices continue to regress and the market is slowly absorbing the fact that supplies of feeder cattle are going to be more sparce than years past, the market has regained an optimistic tone and is seeing stronger demand. Plus, it's helpful when buyers are looking at the live cattle market and trying to justify all the inputs to finish these cattle that they see the live cattle contracts of 2023 mostly hovering at or above $150. At Joplin Regional Stockyards in Carthage, Missouri, compared to a week ago, feeder steers traded $5.00 to $8.00 higher and feeder heifers traded steady to $4.00 higher. The CME Feeder Cattle Index for June 24: down $0.62, $163.09.

LEAN HOGS:

The lean hog market started the day off lower, but as time advanced, the market grew weaker. July lean hogs closed $0.75 lower at $110.17, August lean hogs closed $1.90 lower at $104.87 and October lean hogs closed $1.30 lower at $91.02. The market's downward tone wasn't only seen throughout the futures market as both cash prices and pork cutout values also rounded out the day lower. Pork cutout values were mainly led lower by the dive in bellies, which sank $14.62 lower, and then was followed by a $3.33 regression in ham prices. It's likely that the market keeps this doggish tone until at least Wednesday's Quarterly Hogs and Pigs report is unveiled. Pork cutouts totaled 311.47 loads with 264.98 loads of pork cuts and 46.50 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: down $3.17, $109.03. Monday's slaughter is estimated at 466,000 head, 17,000 head more than a week ago and 11,000 head more than a year ago. The CME Lean Hog Index for June 23: up $0.22, $110.91.

­­­­­TUESDAY'S CASH HOG CALL: Slightly higher. Packers have been pretty faithful to their buying practice of actively supporting the cash market two days out of the week, and it's not uncommon to see their cash interest increase by Tuesday.

Monday Midday Livestock Market Summary - Cattle Take to Market With Positive Tones

GENERAL COMMENTS:

The cattle contracts are trading mostly higher into Monday's afternoon as the corn market continues to plummet lower and the market's fundamental, long-term outlook is undeniably optimistic. However, the lean hog contracts seem to be buying themselves time as the market anxiously waits for Wednesday's Quarterly report. July corn is down 7 3/4 cents per bushel and July soybean meal is up $9.10. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 24.58 points.

LIVE CATTLE:

The live cattle market is trading mostly higher into Monday's afternoon, even though the August and October 2022 contracts are showing a bit of push back. August live cattle are down $0.17 at $133.20, October live cattle are down $0.02 at $139.72 and December live cattle are up $0.25 at $145.50. The big question that's on everyone's mind this week is: did packers get enough cattle bought last week to suffice their needs or will they have to chase cattle again this week in the cash cattle market? Given that supplies of market-ready cattle are so thin in the North, it's likely that feedlots will attempt to see higher prices again this week as Friday's Cattle on Feed report was neutral to somewhat supportive, and not accept anything less than steady.

Last week's negotiated cash cattle trade totaled 94,598 head. Of that 72% (68,048 head) were committed for the nearby delivery, while the remaining 28% (26,550 head) were committed for the deferred delivery.

Boxed beef prices are higher: choice up $4.11 ($269.09) and select up $1.13 ($246.15) with a movement of 46 loads (25.13 loads of choice, 9.58 loads of select, 3.80 loads of trim and 7.70 loads of ground beef).

FEEDER CATTLE:

The feeder cattle market is having a stellar day as the market advances on weaker corn and higher deferred live cattle prices. August feeders are up $1.55 at $174.05, September feeders are up $1.45 at $176.52 and October feeders are up $1.42 at $178.50. Receipts have been light in sale barns over the last two weeks but of the sale barns that have had sales, prices have been strong as the market is soberly realizing that supplies are going to be thin of cattle moving forward after this summer.

LEAN HOGS:

It's going to be a big week for the lean hog complex as the market anxiously awaits Wednesday's Hogs and Pigs report. Until then, it's likely that the market chops sideways as it seems to be wanting to buy time until the report gives a clearer understanding of what's to come in the months ahead. It's not surprising to see the futures market lower Monday morning as both cash hog prices and pork cutout values are lower to start the day off. July lean hogs are down $0.12 at $110.80, August lean hogs are down $0.85 at $105.92 and October lean hogs are down $1.27 at $91.05.

The projected lean hog index for June 24 is up $0.45 at $111.35, and the actual index for June 23 is up $0.23 at $110.90. Hog prices are lower on the Daily Direct Morning Hog Report, down $5.70 with a weighted average of $114.23, ranging from $112.00 to $123.00 on 3,755 head and a five-day rolling average of $117.39. Pork cutouts total 150.26 loads with 119.16 loads of pork cuts and 31.10 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: down $0.67, $111.53.

Monday Morning Livestock Market Update - A Mixed Bag of Trading Activity Today

GENERAL COMMENTS:

Traders were uncertain over the numbers that would be released on the Cattle on Feed report after the close on Friday. After all, the previous two reports showed some bearish surprises. However, those fears were unfounded this time as the report was neutral to slightly friendly this time around. On feed numbers were slightly below the trade estimate at 101%. Placements were 98% compared to the average trade estimate of 99.8% and marketings for the month of May were 102% of a year ago compared to the estimate of 103%. This report may not be much of a market mover but may at least provide some support. Traders will focus their attention on the potential for cash this week. It is difficult to say how aggressive packers will need to be this week. Strong cash the past two weeks could suggest cash cattle at no less than steady prices with last week. Boxed beef was higher with choice up $0.32 and select up $0.08. Lower corn futures overnight should provide support for feeder cattle with the potential to take back the losses of Friday.

Hogs made a nice rebound on Friday due to the market being overdone to the downside and limited the losses for the week. Cash was lower with the National Direct Afternoon report down $0.59 but that was overridden by a gain in cutouts of $2.43. One main problem for the market is the continued slow slaughter pace. The slaughter on Friday was 25,000 head less than the previous week and 10,000 head less than a year ago. This begs the question as to whether higher hog weights are providing that much more tonnage to the market or are supplies tighter making it more difficult to find market ready hogs? Hog weights are coming down from a week ago showing nearly 3 pounds less than the week ending June 11. However, they are still over 4 pounds above a year ago. The Quarterly Hogs $ Pigs report will be released on Wednesday.

	BULL SIDE		BEAR SIDE
1)	The Cattle of Feed report was neutral to slightly friendly which should support the market.	1)	Packers may have purchased sufficient cattle ahead for this week leaving them less aggressive in the market.
2)	Feedlots will set their sights on higher cash and not be too anxious to sell.	2)	Marketings of cattle during the month of May were a little less than expected. This may keep a lid on price potential in the near term.
3)	Cutout strength should result in more follow through buying in hogs to regain the losses of Thursday.	3)	Slaughter continues to run below a year ago leaving more hogs available to the market.
4)	Hog weights are declining and moving closer to year ago levels. Packers may need to purchase more hogs.	4)	Lower weekly export sales of pork from the previous week are not supportive to the market. International demand needs to improve.

Friday Closing Livestock Market Summary - Livestock Complex Looks to Monday for Direction

GENERAL COMMENTS:

The livestock contracts rounded out the day mixed as the feeder cattle contracts closed lower with corn prices trading higher, the live cattle market closed on both sides of steady, and the hog market closed anywhere from $1.00 to $3.00 higher. Hog prices closed lower on the Daily Direct Afternoon Hog Report, down $0.59 with a weighted average of $120.23 on 8,140 head. July corn is up 3 1/2 cents per bushel and July soybean meal is up $5.90. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 823.32 points.

From Friday to Friday, livestock futures scored the following changes: June live cattle down $2.68, August live cattle down $3.20; August feeder cattle down $0.45, September feeder cattle up $0.28; July lean hogs down $0.08, August lean hogs down $1.10; July corn down $0.34, and September corn down $0.55.

LIVE CATTLE:

The live cattle market endured severe push back from traders this past week even though the cash cattle market showed promise of good packer demand. Friday's closing USDA reports shared that roughly 81,000 head of cattle have traded this week. Monday's report will disclose exactly how many cattle traded and how many cattle packers got bought with time, but the question that's on everyone's mind is: Did packers get enough cattle bought to where they won't have to support the spot market next week? Time will tell, but with processing speeds consistently killing more than 650,000 head per week, packers are burning through their inventories. In the South, cattle traded for mostly $138, which is roughly steady for Texas but $1.00 lower for Kansas when compared to the week before. However, Northern feedlots weren't willing to take the market's early weaker bids and it paid dividends. Throughout the North, prices ranged anywhere from $230 to $240 but traded mostly at $234 dressed, which is $4.00 higher than a week ago, and live prices in the North traded mostly at $150, but some $151 trade was reported. June live cattle closed $0.10 higher at $135.35, August live cattle closed $0.50 lower at $133.37 and October live cattle closed $0.25 lower at $139.75.

Friday's Cattle on Feed report shared that June 1 on feed inventories totaled 11,846,000 head, up 1% from a year ago. Pieces of the report passed the sniff test, such as the higher marketings and lower placements. However, where I struggle with the report is: How can Nebraska have record on-feed numbers, but the cash market be so current that there's a $12 premium in this week's market because supplies of market-ready cattle in the North are so thin? And, how can May's disappearances be 13% higher than a year ago and total 76,000 head? (The extreme heat wave that killed cattle in Kansas was in June, not May.)

Friday's slaughter is estimated at 122,000 head, 2,000 head less than a week ago and 5,000 head more than a year ago. Saturday's slaughter is projected is projected to be around 46,000 head. This week's slaughter is estimated at 666,000 head, 1,000 head less than a week ago but 6,000 head more than a year ago.

Boxed beef prices closed higher: choice up $0.32 ($264.98) and select up $0.08 ($245.02) with a movement of 85 loads (46.30 loads of choice, 17.21 loads of select, 10.61 loads of trim and 10.88 loads of ground beef). Throughout eh week choice cuts averaged $266.06 (down $2.27 from last week) and select cuts averaged $245.81 (down $0.57 from last week) with a total movement of cuts, grinds and trim totaling 595 loads.

MONDAY'S CASH CATTLE CALL: Steady. Much of next week's cash cattle market will depend on how many cattle packers got bought this week. Supplies are more ample in the South, and if fuel wasn't so expensive, packers would just truck cattle North where supplies are incredibly thin, but with fuel being as high as it is that isn't an option.

FEEDER CATTLE:

As the corn market closed $0.03 to $0.18 higher, the feeder cattle market tucked its tail throughout Friday's market and closed lower. August feeders closed $2.35 lower at $172.50, September feeders closed $1.77 lower at $175.07 and October feeders closed $1.55 lower at $177.07. The feeder cattle market has found comfort trading sideways between the 40-day and 100-day moving averages. Much of next week's market will depend on how the corn market trades as cattle buyers have been aggressive and ready to buy, so any hint of weaker inputs will just help the market's cause. The CME Feeder Cattle Index for June 23: down $1.52, $163.71.

LEAN HOGS:

The lean hog market somewhat redeemed itself throughout Friday's market as the contracts were able to close anywhere from $1.00 to $3.00 higher ahead of the weekend. July lean hogs closed $2.37 higher at $110.92, August lean hogs closed $3.10 higher at $106.77 and October lean hogs closed $2.07 higher at $92.32. Earlier in the week, when the market came up to resistance at $110, there wasn't enough support to hold the market or push higher. so consequently prices crashed lower. However, now that the market is away from its closest resistance plane, there's some room for the contract to trade higher before it again must come up against the $110 point. Next week will be a big one for the lean hog market as the industry is anxiously awaiting to see what the June 29 Quarterly Hogs and Pigs report will unveil; it's undoubtedly expected to shape the nearby market and potentially deferred market too. Pork cutouts total 262.83 loads with 234.06 loads of pork cuts and 28.77 loads of trim. Pork cutout value: up $2.43, $112.20. Friday's slaughter is estimated at 433,000 head, 25,000 head less than a week ago and 10,000 head less than a year ago. Saturday's slaughter is projected to be around 20,000 head. The CME Lean Hog Index for June 22: down $0.05, $110.69.

­­­­­MONDAY'S CASH HOG CALL: Steady to somewhat lower. Given that packers were aggressive buyers late this week, it's likely that they let Monday pass them buy, which will give them time to calculate their needs before addressing the cash market.

Friday Midday Livestock Market Update - Feeders Trend Lower as Corn Attempts to Regain Some Ground

GENERAL COMMENTS:

Heading into Friday afternoon, the market is waiting to see what Friday's Cattle on Feed report reveals. After months of higher on feed numbers largely driven by drought, there's question as to how on feed numbers can still be this high as showlists in the North are green, carcass weights are declining and throughput has been incredibly strong. July corn is up 9 1/2 cents per bushel and July soybean meal is up $8.30. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 630.37 points.

LIVE CATTLE:

What a week it's been for the live cattle market! While the futures market skates lower thanks to an overall weak commodity market and deliveries driving some longs out of the market, the cash cattle market stayed true to its sober realities and saw cattle trade higher despite the board's weakness in the North. It's easy to get sucked into the emotional roller coaster of the market's minute-by-minute decision making, but as Northern feedlots keenly reminded us all, there's power in keeping with the facts and forgoing the emotion. June live cattle are up $0.20 at $135.45, August live cattle are down $0.22 at $133.67 and October live cattle are down $0.02 at $139.97. The cash cattle market hasn't seen any more trade develop and it's likely that the bulk of the week's business is done with.

Throughout the week, Southern cattle have traded for mostly $138 which is steady to $2.00 lower than last week. Northern cattle have ranged anywhere from $230 to $240, mostly at $234 though which is $4.00 higher than last week.

Boxed beef prices are higher: choice up $0.45 ($265.11) and select up $0.19 ($245.13) with a movement of 59 loads (30.53 loads of choice, 12.45 loads of select, 6.86 loads of trim and 9.54 loads of ground beef).

FEEDER CATTLE:

The feeder cattle complex is reacting to a reversal in the corn market's behavior as the corn market rallies $0.11 to $0.19 higher after trading lower throughout the week. The uptick in corn prices has sent the feeder cattle contracts lower and it's likely that the market keeps this trend through closing as the live cattle market isn't lending much support at this point and Friday's Cattle on Feed report is expected to be bearish with potentially record on feed numbers for June 1. August feeders are down $2.27 lower at $172.57, September feeders are down $1.95 at $174.90 and October feeders are down $1.82 at $176.80.

LEAN HOGS:

After enduring significant losses throughout Thursday's trade, the lean hog contracts are rallying $1.00 to $2.00 higher as pork cutout values trade higher into Friday's afternoon and as the cash hog market sees unexpected support come Friday. July lean hogs are up $2.15 at $110.70, August lean hogs are up $2.87 at $106.55 and October lean hogs are up $1.97 at $92.22. It's likely that Friday's market will close within Thursday's parameters, leaving next week the task of determining what's next. It's likely that the market doesn't make any more significant moves ahead of next week's Quarterly Hogs and Pigs report as the market yearns for reassurance.

The projected lean hog index for June 23 is up $0.23 at $110.90 and the actual index for June 22 is down $0.07 at $110.67. Hog prices are higher on the Daily Direct Morning Hog Report, up $1.32 with a weighted average of $119.93, ranging from $112.00 to $125.50 on 6,771 head and a five-day rolling averaged of $117.42. Pork cutouts total 171.57 loads with 152.28 loads of pork cuts and 19.29 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: up $3.21, $112.98.

Friday Morning Livestock Market Update - Mixed Trading Activity Ahead of Report

GENERAL COMMENTS:

Live cattle just could not generate sufficient buyer interest to pull futures into positive territory Thursday. It seemed the goal was to close the chart gap left from last week, but once that was accomplished selling continued as stops were triggered. Friday, traders are staring at the Cattle on Feed report that will be released after the close. This may keep trading activity subdued prior to the weekend. June live cattle have one more week remaining of trade, and it is confusing indeed that futures are below cash. This week has been interesting in the cash market as Southern cattle have traded steady to as much as $2.00 lower than the previous week. However, Northern dressed cattle increased $2.00 to $4.00 Thursday as packers stepped up to the plate. Boxed beef was lower again with choice down $1.91 and select down $1.05. Beef in cold storage during the month of May totaled 519.8 million pounds, up 25% from a year ago.

Hog futures found no support Thursday, eliminating the gain of the past week. Traders became disillusioned with slower slaughter pace and the uncertainty of demand. Cash was softer with the National Direct Afternoon report showing a loss of $1.63. Cutouts were down $1.38. It is interesting that, for a while, belly stocks were substantially lower than the previous year and bacon prices were significantly higher. The May Cold Storage report showed belly stocks at 56.4 million pounds, up 55% from a year ago. In fact, total pork supplies are the highest they have been since April 2020. Weekly export sales will be released Friday morning and will need to be good. Saturday slaughter is estimated at 20,000 head.

	BULL SIDE		BEAR SIDE
1)	June cattle futures are holding a discount to cash with one week remaining of trade. Futures should pull higher.	1)	The Cattle on Feed report may keep trading mixed Friday as traders are uncertain as to what the report will show.
2)	The jump of cash for dressed beef shows packers needed cattle to meet demand and they did not have enough purchased for the week. This should support futures.	2)	Beef in cold storage has increased significantly from the previous year, which seems to indicate lower demand.
3)	Hog futures are moving in a sideways range with the selling Thursday keeping the market within that range. Futures are expected to recover somewhat as the selling may have been overdone.	3)	The selling Thursday in hog futures may have been triggered by the inability of futures to move higher Wednesday through chart resistance. Traders took profits and stops were hit.
4)	Another week of strong export sales might bring support back into the market Friday as well as some short-covering into the weekend.	4)	Slaughter pace continues to run below year earlier levels, keeping sufficient supply available for demand.

Thursday Closing Livestock Market Update - Northern Feedlots Pull Another $4.00 From Packers

GENERAL COMMENTS:

While the live cattle and lean hog contracts drifted lower Thursday, the feeder cattle market wasted no time in capitalizing on the corn market's weakness. Hog prices on the Daily Direct Afternoon Hog Report closed lower, down $1.63 with a weighted average of $120.82 on 8,761 head. July corn is down 21 1/4 cents per bushel and July soybean meal is down $5.70. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 147.18 points.

On Thursday's Cold Storage report, red meat supplies in freezers were down slightly from a month ago but up 20% from last year. Total pounds of beef in freezers were down 2% from the previous month but up 25% from last year. Frozen pork supplies were up 2% from the previous month and up 17% from last year. Stocks of pork bellies were down 3% from last month but up 55% from last year.

LIVE CATTLE:

Even with the cards being stacked against them with a weaker trading board and softer boxed beef prices, Northern feedlots clung to the fact that packers need cattle and that showlists are manageable in their region, which helped them drive prices $4.00 higher by Thursday's afternoon. Cattle in the North sold for mostly $234, which is $4.00 higher than a week ago, but there were some regional sales to packers in Nebraska for prices upward of $238. A large portion of these sales are committed for delivery for the weeks of July 4 and July 11. The South traded some more cattle for mostly $138, which is steady with the week and $2.00 lower than last week. June live cattle closed $0.87 lower at $135.25, August live cattle closed $1.05 lower at $133.87 and October live cattle closed $1.07 lower at $140.00. Thursday's slaughter totaled 122,000 head, 5,000 head less than a week ago but 4,000 head more than a year ago.

Thursday's actual slaughter data shared that, for the week ending June 11, steers averaged 879 pounds, which is 3 pounds less than both a week and year ago. Heifers averaged 814 pounds, which was steady with the previous week but 3 pounds more than a year ago.

Boxed beef prices closed lower: choice down $1.91 ($264.66) and select down $1.05 ($244.94) with a movement of 104 loads (60.89 loads of choice, 17.75 loads of select, 16.63 loads of trim and 8.92 loads of ground beef).

FRIDAY'S CASH CATTLE CALL: Steady. Packers may have to do a little bit of clean-up business in Friday's market, but prices will likely remain steady with what the week has developed.

FEEDER CATTLE:

While the rest of the livestock complex traded lower, the feeder cattle market wasn't going to waste a perfectly good day where corn traded $0.21 to $0.38 lower, and countryside saw robust demand. August feeders closed $1.70 higher at $174.85, September feeders closed $1.55 higher at $176.85 and October feeders closed $1.32 higher at $178.62. The live cattle market may have run into some technical pushback this past week, but the feeder cattle market has only grown stronger as traders and cattlemen alike understand that the market's low inventory is going to propel prices higher this year. On Northern Livestock Video Auction's Early Summer sale, roughly 13,000 head of feeder cattle sold Thursday and their prices were incredibly strong. Steers weighing 500 to 549 pounds averaged $216.50, steers weighing 550 to 599 pounds averaged $197.00, steers weighing 600 to 649 pounds averaged $199.65, steers weighing 650 to 699 pounds averaged $198.11, and steers weighing 700 to 750 pounds averaged $195.38. Heifers weighing 500 to 549 pounds averaged $187.00, heifers weighing 550 to 599 pounds averaged $179.17, heifers weighing 600 to 649 pounds averaged $173.00, and heifers weighing 650 to 699 pounds averaged $170.88. The CME Feeder Cattle Index for June 22: up $0.02, $165.23.

LEAN HOGS:

Well, if Thursday wasn't a roundhouse kick right to the ol' kisser -- I don't know what would be. Sure, the commodity markets struggled throughout the day, but to see the lean hog contracts plummet $2.00 to $4.00 seems a little extreme. July lean hogs closed $3.30 lower at $108.55, August lean hogs closed $4.65 lower at $103.67 and October lean hogs closed $3.70 lower at $90.25. The cash market held its own throughout the day as prices were only $1.63 softer following Wednesday's $3.46 advancement. However, with pork cutout prices showing push back and slaughter speeds lagging, the market took a turn for lower prices and never looked back. Pork cutouts total 241.66 loads with 215.96 loads of pork cuts and 25.71 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: down $1.38, $109.77. Pork cutout prices faired relatively well throughout the day, but given the $14.69 drop in bellies, the overall carcass cutout price was sucked lower. Thursday's slaughter is estimated at 465,000 head, 1,000 head less than a week ago and 7,000 head less than a year ago. The CME Lean Hog Index for June 21: up $0.29, $110.74.

­­­­­FRIDAY'S CASH HOG CALL: Lower. Given the board's weak performance throughout Thursday, Friday's trade isn't expected to be much considering the board's pushback and the fact that packers have already been active for two days.

Thursday Midday Livestock Market Summary - Corn Falls Out of Bed, Gives Feeders Strength

GENERAL COMMENTS:

The feeder cattle contracts are enjoying the corn markets demise, but both the live cattle and lean hog contracts are trending lower. The cash cattle market hasn't seen any interest develop and unless packers are just going to buy thinly this week, more business needs to develop. especially in the North. July corn is down 24 1/2 cents per bushel and July soybean meal is down $3.00. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 50.45 points.

LIVE CATTLE:

The live cattle market flirted with the idea of trading higher, but as skepticism brews throughout the futures complex, the contracts are trading lower. Seeing the 25 deliveries made in Texas this week has set the market trending lower as there's concern that the deliveries will scare some of the longs out of the market. You'd think that with the type of regression the corn market is enduring, even the live cattle market would appreciate the lower feed costs, but with a teetering cash cattle market and worrisome traders -- lower the market goes. June live cattle are down $0.35 at $135.77, August live cattle are down $0.47 at $134.42 and October live cattle are down $0.55 at $140.52. The cash cattle market hasn't seen any bids renewed at this point and asking prices in the South are noted at $140 to $142 and $240-plus in the North.

Boxed beef prices are lower: choice down $1.79 ($264.78) and select down $0.96 ($245.03) with a movement of 52 loads (30.31 loads of choice, 13.57 loads of select, zero loads of trim and 8.57 loads of ground beef).

FEEDER CATTLE:

The feeder cattle market can't help but trade higher while the corn complex faints $0.27 to $0.45 lower. The grain complex's weakness has come as questions about weather arise and it's seeming like the market has realized that its upward surge was overdone. Nevertheless, as Northern sells 12,900 head of cattle Thursday, the board is in their favor and seeing a regression in input prices is incredibly helpful too. August feeders are up $0.97 at $174.20, September feeders are up $1.07 at $176.37 and October feeders are up $0.90 at $178.20.

LEAN HOGS:

The lean hog market is enduring a tough spell as the contracts fold $2.00 to $3.00 lower even though both pork cutout values and cash prices are higher. July lean hogs are down $2.42 at $109.42, August lean hogs are down $3.60 at $104.72 and October lean hogs are down $3.15 at $90.80. Slightly slower processing speeds have raised question throughout the market about consumer demand, and until we see next week's Quarterly Hogs and Pigs report, the market could remain rocky.

The projected lean hog index for June 22 is down $0.07 at $110.67, and the actual index for June 21 is up $0.29 at $110.74. Hog prices are higher on the Daily Direct Morning Hog Report, up $1.28 with a weighted average of $118.61, ranging from $114.00 to $125.00 on 4,626 head and a five-day rolling average of $116.24. Pork cutout values total 136.08 loads with 119.74 loads of pork cuts and 16.34 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: up $0.09, $111.24.

Thursday Morning Livestock Market Update - Traders Await Further Cash Direction

GENERAL COMMENTS:

Lately, live cattle seem to thrive on the dramatic. Futures many times gap lower or higher and then fill the gap during the same day or later. There seems to be a pent-up energy that builds overnight as traders anticipate market direction. The weakness in cash of $2.00 lower in the South took the wind out of the sails Wednesday. Cash trading volume was light and may not be entirely representative of what will take place for the week; but it does set a weak tone coming into Thursday. It certainly did not help that boxed beef closed lower with choice down $0.99 and select down $0.71. Greater cash trading activity should take place Thursday as packers are already looking at the second half of the week.

Hogs seemed to go along for the ride with spill-over activity from cattle. Traders did not seem to focus on the development of stronger cash activity and that cutouts showed promise. Technical traders seemed to have the upper hand as nearby contracts neared technical resistance, increasing the interest to sell contracts in anticipation of a price retracement. The National Direct Afternoon Hog report showed cash up $3.46, which may be reflected in Thursday's trade. Cutouts were up over $2.00 on the morning report and did manage to close $0.19 higher on the afternoon report. This should be reflected in Thursday's trading activity. Saturday slaughter is projected at 20,000 head.

	BULL SIDE		BEAR SIDE
1)	Corn futures took a hit again overnight making three days of significant losses for September and later contracts. This should have a positive impact on the cattle complex.	1)	Cattle declining even though corn prices are weakening does not bode well for the complex. Corn futures may be declining but the price paid for corn has not declined much due to a strong basis. Feed is still expensive.
2)	Packers will need cattle this week as they do not have a large amount already contracted. Cash trade in the North is expected to be no worse than steady and possibly slightly higher.	2)	Packers indicate they may not be willing to pay more for cattle as weakness of boxed beef is reducing their margins.
3)	Cash hogs made a nice jump Wednesday, which should carry over Thursday. Packers may not be as aggressive but should still be looking for supply.	3)	There seem to be sufficient hogs available to the market. Packers pay up for a day or two and are able to obtain sufficient supply again for the week.
4)	Hog futures consolidated Wednesday and may be poised to move above chart resistance if support comes from higher cutouts.	4)	Hog slaughter continues to run below a year ago with weights remaining higher. This provides sufficient pork for demand.

Wednesday Closing Livestock Market Update - Challenges for Markets to Sort Through

GENERAL COMMENTS:

It was a tough day for the livestock complex, and an especially rough day for the live cattle market. Heading into Thursday's market, more cash cattle trade is expected to develop, and especially in the North. Hog prices closed higher on the Daily Direct Afternoon Hog Report, up $3.46 with a weighted average of $122.45 on 15,829 head. July corn is up 7 1/4 cents per bushel and July soybean meal is up $1.10. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 47.12 points.

LIVE CATTLE:

You might as well have cried "fire in the hole" come Wednesday, as it felt like the market twitched at little landmines throughout the day. First, the board took a lower approach to the day, ultimately closing $1.00 to $1.70 lower as pressures have mounted. One of those pressures was the CME noting that 25 deliveries were noted in Tulia, Texas, which heavily pressured the soon expiring June contract. Another pressure was that cash cattle were thinly traded throughout the day in the South at $138, which is steady to $2.00 lower than last week. June live cattle closed $1.70 lower at $136.12, August live cattle closed $1.32 lower at $134.92 and October live cattle closed $1.22 lower at $141.07. The North had bids offered to the region throughout the day, but as supplies are more current in the North, feedlots weren't overly excited or worried about accepting the weaker money and hoped to see higher bids come Thursday. 

Wednesday's slaughter is estimated at 126,000 head, steady with a week ago and 10,000 head more than a year ago.

Boxed beef prices closed lower: choice down $0.99 ($266.57) and select down $0.71 ($245.99) with a movement of 157 loads (98.60 loads of choice, 30.32 loads of select, 17.10 loads of trim and 10.50 loads of ground beef).

THURSDAY'S CASH CATTLE CALL: Steady. Given that Northern feedlots have mostly resisted the weaker bids offered up by packers, it's likely that packers show a little more interest in Thursday's market as they still need to get cattle bought, especially in the North.

FEEDER CATTLE:

The corn market rounded out the day mostly lower, seeing a steady $0.07 set back in the 2022 contracts other than the spot July contract, which gained $0.07. And while the corn market didn't add much pressure for the feeder cattle market, the lack of trader interest that the complex saw was enough to send it lower in and of itself, let alone considering the doggish tone of the live cattle contracts. More than anything, the feeder cattle market is looking for stability and direction, and Wednesday's market offered none of that. August feeders closed $2.15 lower at $173.15, September feeders closed $1.97 lower at $175.30 and October feeders closed $1.67 lower at $177.30. At Winter Livestock Auction in Dodge City, Kansas, compared to last week, feeder steers weighing 800 to 925 pounds traded $3.00 to $5.00 lower and feeder heifers weighing 800 to 900 pounds traded $1.00 to $3.00 higher. There weren't enough calves and yearlings sold to establish any sort of trend. Slaughter cows traded $4.00 to $5.00 lower and slaughter bulls sold steady to $1.00 higher. The CME Feeder Cattle Index for June 21: up $0.18, $165.21.

LEAN HOGS:

The lean hog complex took the same stance as the cattle contracts and worked with a mostly lower futures market Wednesday. July lean hogs closed $0.87 lower at $111.85, August lean hogs closed $1.47 lower at $108.32 and October lean hogs closed $0.62 lower at $93.95. The cash market was able to move a considerable volume of hogs by the day's end, pushing 15,829 head at $3.46 higher than Tuesday market. It helped that pork cutout values closed higher -- with bellies leading the move by gained $2.73 and butt cuts gaining $2.21 throughout the day. Pork cutouts total 258.59 loads with 231.50 loads of pork cuts and 27.09 load of trim. Pork cutout values: up $0.29, $111.15. Wednesday's slaughter is estimated at 469,000 head, 3,000 head less than a week ago and 4,000 head less than a year ago. The CME Lean Hog Index for June 20: up $1.29, $110.45.

­­­­­THURSDAY'S CASH HOG CALL: Steady to somewhat lower. It wouldn't be surprising to see packers somewhat active again in Thursday's market, but prices won't likely be higher.