Wednesday Closing Livestock Market Update - Active Buying Takes Feeder Cattle, Lean Hogs Higher

GENERAL COMMENTS

Triple-digit gains for lean hog futures and feeder cattle futures gained momentum Wednesday afternoon as bullish headline-chasing speculators churned through a strong volume of contracts. Outside markets were the originators of these bullish ideas, with crude oil pivoting higher and trading above $80 per barrel. In the cash cattle market, light trade developed Wednesday in parts of the South at $155, fully steady with last week's weighted averages. Asking prices are around $156 to $158 in the South, but still not established in the North. The National Direct Afternoon Hog Report is delayed Wednesday afternoon, but as a benchmark, the five-day rolling average from the morning report was $84.73. December corn moved down 3 3/4 cents to $6.62 per bushel and December soybean meal closed up $9.20 per ton to $417.70. The Dow Jones Industrial Average was up 737.24 points and the NASDAQ was up 526.61 points.

LIVE CATTLE:

Gains in live cattle futures were relatively mild Wednesday compared to other commodity markets, but these live cattle charts are still bumping up against recent contract highs. The December contract ended up $0.40 at $153.075; the February contract ended up $0.875 at $155.675, and the April contract ended up $0.70 at $159.275. Some light cash cattle trade has developed in parts of the South (mostly Kansas and Texas) at $155, fully steady with last week's weighted averages. A few live bids have been noted in Nebraska, but so far, they are being passed. Asking prices are around $156 to $158 in the South, but still not established in the North. Last week's northern dressed business was marked at $245, which was itself a big $3 week-over-week jump. It may be tricky for the market to sustain gains like that two weeks in a row, although the bullish mood spilling over from outside markets could help. 

Boxed beef prices were mixed Wednesday afternoon: choice up $0.14 ($254.88) and select down $0.81 ($225.01), with a movement of 190 loads (139.01 loads of choice, 19.23 loads of select, 5.36 loads of trim and 25.90 loads of ground beef).

THURSDAY'S CASH CATTLE CALL: $1.00 to $2.00 higher. With front-end supplies of market-ready cattle as thin as they are, and with throughput as aggressive as it is, cash cattle prices will likely be higher again this week.

FEEDER CATTLE:

Momentum built in the feeder cattle futures market through the second half of Wednesday's trading session, with higher prices attracting a surge of afternoon futures buying volume and creating a self-fulfilling prophecy of even higher prices. At Wednesday's close, the January contract was up $2.475 at $180.475, the March contract was up $2.275 at $183.45, and the April contract was up $1.95 at $186.80. Even after these impressive triple-digit gains, the nearby contracts remain shy of their highs from last week, but that simply leaves opportunities for additional buying interest, if the renewed confidence in bullish commodity markets carries through the rest of this week. The volume of calves coming through sale barns is seasonally slowing down, but the long-term picture of supply-and-demand remains in the producers' favor.

LEAN HOGS:

Crude oil was higher Wednesday, oilseeds were higher, the Shanghai Composite Index of Chinese stock prices is higher -- in short, the easing of COVID restrictions in parts of China has been a bullish boon to markets that are sensitive to that economy's strength, notably including pork and hogs. The December contract closed up $1.825 at $82.90; the February contract closed up $1.20 at $85.35; and the April contract closed up $0.90 at $90.65. While these gains are more likely the result of speculators buying futures based on headline-chasing, rather than some fresh outlook for domestic U.S. hog supply and demand, the same thing could be said of last week's precipitous sell-off, so a correction may be more than overdue. Packers have been taking a cue from the falling futures prices to pressure hog values lower in recent days, but with the lean hog index eventually slipping below $84 per cwt, these cash values may also be justified in making hefty day-to-day upward corrections. The afternoon pork cut-out showed the overall carcass value up $1.65 to $87.33. There were 304.84 total loads (256.08 loads of cuts and 48.77 loads of trim). The CME Lean Hog Index for Nov. 28: down $0.42, $84.21, and the projected Index for Nov. 29: down $0.32, $83.89.

THURSDAY'S CASH HOG CALL: $1 to $2 higher. In a scenario where domestic pork demand and slaughter tempo remain undaunted, the recent erosion in hog values may need additional correction.

Wednesday Midday Livestock Market Update - Lean Hog Futures React to Loosened Chinese COVID-19 Restrictions

GENERAL COMMENTS:

A surge of speculative buying activity has driven up the prices of lean hog futures Wednesday, and also live cattle and feeder cattle as well. The three nearby lean hog contracts have been up by triple digits through most of Wednesday morning, and the more illiquid feeder cattle futures markets have also displayed some streaky gains. COVID-19 lockdowns have eased in some Chinese provinces in response to citizen protests, and the broader commodity markets -- notably including crude oil -- seem to interpret this as a sign that Chinese imports of certain products may not suffer as much as feared earlier this week. December corn is down 4 cents per bushel and December soybean meal is up $9.30 per ton. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 177.25 points.

LIVE CATTLE:

Live cattle futures are following along with the livestock sector's generally bullish mood, with a relatively active volume of futures trade for a Wednesday morning. December live cattle are up $0.475 at $153.15, February live cattle are up $0.925 at $155.725 and April live cattle are up $0.80 at $159.375. These gains are still only a small gesture to counteract the slide of the past few trading sessions, and the December contract, for instance, remains more than $1 below the contract high from a week ago. The market is still waiting for cash cattle trade to develop this week, but so far, early asking prices have been noted in the South at $156 to $157. The Fed Cattle Exchange Auction held today reported 07 lots (all in TX), totaling 1,506 head of cattle, none of which sold. Opening prices were at $153, high bids had a range of $155 to $155.25, but none of these bids met reserve prices of $155.50 to $156. 

Wednesday's slaughter is estimated at 128,000 head, which is 4,000 more than a week ago and 4,000 more than a year ago.

Boxed beef prices are lower Wednesday morning: choice down $2.51 ($252.23) and select down $0.43 ($225.39) with a movement of 84 loads (59.95 loads of choice, 9.77 loads of select, 0 loads of trim and 13.78 loads of ground beef).

FEEDER CATTLE:

Feeder cattle are posting impressive gains so far Wednesday, but these may merely be a feature of spotty trading volume and lots of room on the chart for contracts to move back higher without encountering sell orders. January feeders are up $1.70 at $179.70, March feeders are up $1.675 at $182.85 and April feeders are up $1.55 at $186.40. The March contract, for instance, would have to churn another $2.50 higher to retake its high from last week. However, there's no arguing that the market has recognized the looming shortage of beef animals in this drought-plagued country, particularly in the longer-term horizon. The October 2023 contract has traded above $200 per cwt throughout this whole month, and opportunities exist for cow-calf operators confident of supply to lock in 2023 hedges or insurance policies at prices that are likely to support profits.

LEAN HOGS:

Lean hog futures are leading the livestock sector higher Wednesday, with a bullish narrative from outside markets as China eases some COVID-19 restrictions, promising improved consumer demand for things like pork, and crude oil regains $80 per barrel. December lean hogs are up $1.55 at $82.625, February lean hogs are up $1.425 at $85.575 and April lean hogs are up $1.375 at $91.125. The concentration of buying activity in the front-month December futures contract is a sign that short-term speculators are the ones driving Wednesday's price action. While the day-to-day sentiment of lean hog futures traders remains in thrall to the story of China and its consumer demand, there is going to be continued risk of volatile up-or-down days, because the effectiveness of citizen protests or government reactions will evolve over time. Here in the U.S., Wednesday's slaughter is seen at 492,000 head, which is 4,000 more than a week ago and 13,000 more than a year ago at this time.

The projected CME Lean Hog Index for Nov. 28 is down $0.43 at $84.21, and the actual index for Nov. 25 was down $0.93 at $84.63. Hog prices were higher in Wednesday's Daily Direct Morning Hog Report, with the weighted average price $86.20 up $4.16 on 23,226 head. Base prices ranged from $77.50 to $88, bringing the five-day rolling average to $84.73. Pork cutouts total 180.81 loads with 153.49 loads of pork cuts and 27.49 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: up $2.52, $88.20.

Wednesday Morning Livestock Market Update - Traders Wait for Cash

GENERAL COMMENTS:

No cash business took place Tuesday as packers have not yet showed interest. They are waiting to see how many cattle are available and what feedlots are asking. It is possible business will be delayed until Thursday due to limited trading interest shown so far. Slaughter pace running as strong as it is will require packers to purchase what they need. However, there is indication that slaughter pace is beginning to slow. Boxed beef prices were mixed again Tuesday with choice up $0.21 and select down $2.71. Feeder cattle are having a difficult time trending higher due to the choppy corn market and the uncertainty over demand early next year.

Hogs slowed the decline Tuesday with December able to close higher. The recent decline will be difficult to overcome in light of continued weakness of cutouts. It is hoped demand would increase moving through the end of the year, but there is no indication of that currently. The weakness of cutouts again Tuesday, showing a decline of $3.84, indicates lower prices are needed to move product. Even though pork products are struggling, slaughter continues to remain strong with packers showing no indication of slowing. It is as if they are building inventory as much as they can at the present time.

	BULL SIDE		BEAR SIDE
1)	There is strong potential cash cattle will trade higher this week and packers seem to be short-bought after last week.	1)	Even though there is anticipation of higher cash this week, traders remain cautious over further price potential.
2)	Liquidation may have run its course again with stability returning Tuesday. Futures are poised to move higher if cash trades higher.	2)	Feeder cattle may lose some of the gains seen Tuesday as corn futures are higher.
3)	Strong slaughter pace for hogs should keep marketings current. An increase in demand would find tighter supply and higher cash.	3)	Hog futures were unable to bounce in later contracts Tuesday. Lower cutouts may keep pressure on the market.
4)	December hogs are running at a discount to the index with two weeks remaining to trade.	4)	Pork inventory is building, leaving sufficient supply available if demand improves and slaughter decreases.

Tuesday Closing Livestock Market Update - Mixed Tones Push Cattle Higher While Keep Hogs Trending Lower

GENERAL COMMENTS

The livestock complex closed mixed with the cattle contracts rallying as the nearby corn contracts closed lower and with the hope that the cash sector will trade higher again this week. Meanwhile, the lean hog market closed lower with pork demand not showing traders enough assurance to push prices higher. Hog prices are unavailable on the Daily Direct Afternoon Hog Report due to packer submission issues. March corn is down 1 3/4 cents per bushel and January soybean meal is down $4.10. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 3.07 points.

LIVE CATTLE:

The live cattle complex closed mildly higher as the market fully anticipates the cash sector to trade higher this week. The cash cattle market didn't see any trade develop as packers didn't offer any bids throughout the countryside. Some early asking prices were noted in the South at $156 to $157 and are still not established in the North. Some bids could begin to materialize by Wednesday, but the week's trade will likely take place on Thursday. However, with the support of the higher close throughout the futures complex, feedlots were given another boost of encouragement to push for higher prices. December live cattle closed $0.10 higher at $152.67, February live cattle closed $0.12 higher at $154.80 and April live cattle closed $0.12 higher at $158.57. 

Tuesday's slaughter is estimated at 128,000 head, 1,000 head less than a week ago and 4,000 head more than a year ago.

Boxed beef prices closed mixed: choice up $0.21 ($254.74) and select down $2.71 ($225.82) with a movement of 152 loads (96.71 loads of choice, 25.86 loads of select, 12.19 loads of trim and 16.98 loads of ground beef). The choice/select spread sits at $28.92.

WEDNESDAY'S CATTLE CALL: $1.00 to $2.00 higher. With front-end supplies of market-ready cattle as thin as they are, and with throughput as aggressive as it is, cash cattle prices will likely be higher again this week.

FEEDER CATTLE:

The feeder cattle complex had a modestly successful day as the market wasted no time advancing its position while corn prices traded lower and while the live cattle market was lending support. January feeders closed $1.12 higher at $178.00, March feeders closed $0.57 higher at $181.17 and April feeders closed $0.45 higher at $184.85. The cash cattle market isn't expected to trade cattle until Wednesday afternoon or more likely on Thursday, but if the market is able to again push prices higher, the feeder cattle market could see another jump at that point. At Oklahoma National Stockyards in Oklahoma City, Oklahoma, compared to last week, feeder steers and heifers traded $1.00 to $3.00 higher with some instances of $6.00 to $10.00 higher. Steer calves sold for $3.00 to $7.00 higher. Heifer calves sold steady to $3.00 lower. Recent rains and warmer weather have helped improve wheat pasture conditions in the area for cattle. Feeder cattle supply over 600 pounds was 44%. The CME Feeder Cattle Index for Nov. 28: up $1.66, $178.85.

LEAN HOGS:

The lean hog complex closed mixed with the nearby contracts still not seeing the support they desired, while the deferred contracts closed mildly higher. December lean hogs closed $0.47 higher at $81.07, February lean hogs closed $0.60 lower at $84.15 and April lean hogs closed $0.75 lower at $89.75. It was disappointing for the market to see pork cutout values close lower again and for demand to come up short. The pork cutout value was pulled lower by a $9.41 drop in the ham, and by a $3.44 drop in the butt and a $2.30 drop in the belly. Pork cutouts total 331.22 loads with 285.51 loads of pork cuts and 45.72 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: down $3.84, $85.68. Tuesday's slaughter is estimated at 494,000 head, 2,000 head more than a week ago and 15,000 head more than a year ago. The CME Lean Hog Index for Nov. 25: down $0.93, $84.63.

WEDNESDAY'S HOG CALL: Higher. Wednesday's cash hog market will likely be higher as packers haven't procured a sizeable enough volume of hogs to fulfill their upcoming kills

Tuesday Midday Livestock Market Summary - Cattle See Modest Support

GENERAL COMMENTS:

The cattle contracts are trading higher into Tuesday's afternoon as the market finds comfort in slightly cheaper corn prices and assumes that this week's cash sector will trade steady, if not higher again this week. The lean hog complex is teetering but trading mostly lower as the market longs for support and hopes to see more in afternoon pork cutout values. March corn is down 1 1/2 cents per bushel and January soybean meal is down $4.20. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 116.52 points.

LIVE CATTLE:

The live cattle complex is trading higher into Tuesday's afternoon as the market clings to the support that's been driving the cash sector higher. December live cattle are up $0.02 at $152.60, February live cattle are up $0.20 at $154.87 and April live cattle are up $0.10 at $158.55. The cash cattle market hasn't seen any business develop yet and it's not likely that the market sees any real interest until Wednesday, or potentially Thursday if feedlots accomplish pushing this week's market higher again. Early asking prices in the South are noted at $156 to $157 in the South but are still unestablished in the North. If the contracts are able to close higher come Tuesday's end, the market could trade favorably into Wednesday's market as it sees both technical and fundamental support.

Boxed beef prices are lower: choice down $1.18 ($253.35) and select down $1.99 ($226.54) with a movement of 82 loads (44.02 loads of choice, 16.75 loads of select, 9.64 loads of trim and 11.21 loads of ground beef).

FEEDER CATTLE:

The feeder cattle complex is attempting to find support in Tuesday's market as the complex leans on the live cattle market's slightly higher trade and finds comfort in slightly lower grain prices. January feeders are up $0.67 at $177.55, March feeders are up $0.47 at $181.00 and April feeders are up $0.37 at $184.77. It's also helping that Monday's CME feeder cattle index closed $3.56 higher, proving that buyers are looking to the market's auctions and trying to find deals where they can make money and continue to participate.

LEAN HOGS:

The lean hog complex has traded back and forth throughout Tuesday's market, trying to decide if it should trade higher or lower. At this point, the market is trading mostly lower into Tuesday's afternoon as the market looks at cheaper pork cutout values at noon, and only modest interest in the cash market. One would think that, with Monday's sharp decline, which led prices to close at the lowest point they've been at in mid-October, the complex would trade steady or somewhat higher, but the lack of demand keeps the market treading lower. December lean hogs are up $0.42 at $81.02, February lean hogs are down $0.10 at $84.65 and April lean hogs are down $0.42 at $90.07.

The projected lean hog index for Nov. 28 is down $0.42 at $84.12, and the actual index for Nov. 25 is down $0.93 at $84.63. Hog prices are higher on the Daily Direct Morning Hog Report, up $0.31 with a weighted average of $82.04, ranging from $76.50 to $87.50 on 6,140 head and a five-day rolling average of $82.00. Pork cutouts total 173.65 loads with 148.38 loads of pork cuts and 25.27 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: down $0.75, $88.77.

Tuesday Morning Livestock Market Update - Traders May Remain Cautious Again

GENERAL COMMENTS:

The action of live cattle futures had many scratching their heads. It was anticipated traders would trade the strength in cash last week and the potential for cash this week. That was not the case. Traders may be turning more cautious as the month of December approaches. There is uncertainty whether demand will remain as strong as it has been as we move through the end of the year. There is no doubt cattle supplies are tightening, but will slaughter pace hold as well as it has? Feedlots will look for higher cash again this week as packers are likely short-bought after last week. Offers have not yet been posted. Boxed beef put a negative tone in the market with mixed prices. Choice was $2.70 higher while select was down $5.84. The Commitment of Traders report showed funds as net buyers of 11,146 live cattle contract, bringing their net-long positions to 60,850 contracts.

Hog futures took a beating with the path of least resistance being lower. Futures closed near or on the lows for the day. Futures tested the lows of early November and broke below those lows, triggering further liquidation. Traders did not care that cash was pointing higher with the National Direct Afternoon Hog report showing a gain of $0.27. The midday cutout report was phenomenal, posting a gain of $9.80. Unfortunately, it did not remain there but did show a gain of $1.89 at the end of the day. None of that mattered as selling erupted and futures pancaked lower as stops were triggered. It will be tough to undo the technical damage done to the charts. The Commitment of Traders report showed funds sold 1,713 contracts, trimming their net-long positions to 51,574 contracts.

	BULL SIDE		BEAR SIDE
1)	Feedlots will be holding for higher cash this week, sensing that packers will need cattle and will need to pay up for them to maintain chain speed.	1)	Cattle futures have been unable to rally even though cash traded higher last week and is expected higher again this week. Traders seem concerned over demand.
2)	Beef demand continues to remain strong with cattle supplies tightening. This should continue to support the market.	2)	Packers may begin to slow chain speed, which would reduce the number of cattle needed. Demand might slow as we move through the end of the year.
3)	Strong pork cutouts earlier Monday with prices remaining higher at the end of the day might be an indication of prices being low enough to stimulate greater demand.	3)	Hog futures broke below support Monday, increasing liquidation. It will be difficult to regain the losses anytime soon.
4)	Continued high slaughter pace and strong exports may indicate pork demand is improving, keeping product moving and market-ready hogs current.	4)	Packers are having little difficulty obtaining the hogs they need without having to chase the market higher.

Monday Closing Livestock Market Update - Traders Let Livestock Complex Drift Lower

GENERAL COMMENTS

It was a doggish Monday for the livestock complex as the contracts closed lower and traders paid the market little to not attention. The big question on everyone's mind this week is: Will the live cattle contracts jump on board and trade alongside the rallying cash cattle market? Time will only tell. Hog prices closed higher on the Daily Direct Afternoon Hog Report, up $0.27 at $83.22 on 8,409 head. December corn is up 3/4 cent per bushel and January soybean meal is up $5.40. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 497.57 points.

LIVE CATTLE:

The live cattle market closed with the same doggish attitude that consumed the rest of the livestock markets. Traders have kept a cautious approach despite the cash cattle market championing new cash highs nearly each and every week. With packers having produced 85% of last week's purchase to the nearby delivery, it's evident that they're short bought and in need of cattle. Cash cattle prices will likely be steady if not higher again this week. The bigger question that remains yet to be answered is: Will the futures market jump on board and trade higher along side the cash cattle market? December live cattle closed $0.50 lower at $152.57, February live cattle closed $0.45 lower at $154.67 and April live cattle closed $0.52 lower at $158.45. 

Monday's slaughter is estimated at 128,000 head - steady with a week ago and 7,000 head more than a year ago.

Last week's negotiated cash cattle trade took place mostly on Wednesday. Southern cattle traded for $152 to $155.50, but mostly at $154 to $155 which is $3.50 to $4.50 higher than the previous week's weighted average. Northern dressed cattle sold for $243 to $247.50, which was $3.00 higher than the week before. Last week's negotiated cash cattle trade sold 94,864 head. Of that, 85% (80,957 head) were committed to the nearby delivery, while the remaining 15% (13,907 head) were committed for the deferred delivery.

Boxed beef prices closed mixed: choice up $2.70 ($254.53) and select down $5.84 ($228.53) with a movement of 85 loads (55.22 loads of choice, 13.87 loads of select, 9.94 loads of trim and 6.28 loads of ground beef). The choice/select spread sits at $26.00.

TUESDAY'S CATTLE CALL: $1.00 to $2.00 higher. It's unlikely that the market sees any trade develop ahead of Wednesday, and prices will likely be higher again as feedlots still possess the lion's share of the market's leverage.

FEEDER CATTLE:

The feeder cattle market didn't stand much of a chance at trading higher throughout Monday's market as traders kept an arm's distance from the cattle contracts, as corn traded mixed and the live cattle contracts lent no support. If the cash cattle market's momentum can entice the live cattle complex to trade higher, then some spillover support may allow for feeders to trade higher too. But more than anything the feeder cattle market will be eyeing corn prices and trading oppositely. January feeders closed $1.42 lower at $176.87, March feeders closed $0.95 lower at $180.60 and April feeders closed $0.72 lower at $184.40. At Joplin Regional Stockyards in Carthage, Missouri, compared to last week, feeder steers were trading steady at their midsession point, and feeder heifers under 550 pounds were trading steady to $3.00 higher. Feeder cattle supply over 600 pounds was 48%. The CME Feeder Cattle Index for Nov. 25: up $3.56, $177.19.

LEAN HOGS:

The lean hog complex had a tough start to the week as the contracts fell drastically lower throughout Monday's afternoon. December lean hogs closed $3.17 lower at $80.60, February lean hogs closed $3.75 lower at $84.75 and April lean hogs closed $3.52 lower at $90.50. It was surprising to see pork cutout values closed higher, but the day's higher close stems from a jump in belly prices which will likely be the reason for the cutout's lower close tomorrow as the volatility in belly prices is extreme. Pork cutouts total 290.42 loads with 255.98 loads of pork cuts and 34.44 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: up $1.89, $89.52. Monday's slaughter is estimated at 493,000 head, 5,000 head more than a week ago and 10,000 head more than a year ago. The CME Lean Hog Index for Nov. 23: down $0.61, $85.56.

TUEDSAY'S HOG CALL: Slightly higher. With the current downtrend in the marekt, it's likely that packers are cautious about their cash expenses in this week, but they'll still need to procure hogs for the upcoming weeks.

Monday Midday Livestock Market Summary - Traders Show Complex Little Interest After Thanksgiving Holiday

GENERAL COMMENTS:

The livestock complex is off to a meek start as the market tiptoes into Monday's noon hour. With the big advances in last week's cash cattle market, one would have thought cattle contracts would be trading higher Monday. Meanwhile the lean hog complex is keeping with its downward trend as the market longs for demand but is skeptical if it will come or not. December corn is steady and January soybean meal is steady. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 330.73 points.

LIVE CATTLE:

As the market heads into the noon hour, the live cattle market isn't seeing the support it saw earlier in the day. With last week's $3.00 to $4.50 advancement in the cash sector, one would suspect the futures market would follow its lead and trade higher into the new week. But given that the market is coming back from a long holiday weekend, traders could show the market more support after they have time to reappraise the entire marketplace. December live cattle are down $0.47 at $152.60, February live cattle are down $0.67 at $154.45 and April live cattle are down $0.75 at $158.22.

Last week's negotiated cash cattle trade took place mostly Wednesday. Southern cattle traded for $152 to $155.50, but mostly at $154 to $155, which is $3.50 to $4.50 higher than the previous week's weighted average. Northern dressed cattle sold for $243 to $247.50, which was $3.00 higher than the week before. Last week's negotiated cash cattle trade sold 94,864 head. Of that 85% (80,957 head) were committed to nearby delivery, while the remaining 15% (13,907 head) were committed for deferred delivery.

Boxed beef prices are mixed: choice up $3.00 ($254.83) and select down $1.35 ($233.02) with a movement of 25 loads (18.81 loads of choice, 4.90 loads of select, zero loads of trim and 1.38 loads of ground beef).

FEEDER CATTLE:

The feeder cattle complex is trading mixed as the market longs for support but has come up short thus far Monday. Currently the corn complex is trading lower, which thankfully bodes well for the market and its aspiration to trade higher. But without support from the live cattle complex, the market is struggling to muster up enough technical and fundamental backing to justify trading higher. The market will see more feeder cattle sales this week as sale barns will likely have an influx as last week most sale barns took the week off for the holiday. January feeders are down $0.80 at $177.50, March feeders are down $0.42 at $181.12 and April feeders are down $0.22 at $184.90.

LEAN HOGS:

The lean hog complex is keeping with its downward trading trend as the market longs for demand but has unfortunately come up short in recent weeks. As the bird flu continues to spread throughout the country and affect poultry barns, chicken prices will likely continue to rise, which could turn some consumers onto pork cuts. Not to mention retailers will be restocking after the Thanksgiving buying rush to prepare for Christmas, which could lend the hog market the support it's hoping for. It's interesting to see pork cutout values up over $9.00 Monday morning, the biggest being the $36.90 jump in the bellies. But with cold storage supplies extremely full of bellies, I don't believe we'll see the day's closing pork cutout value as drastically high. December lean hogs are down $1.35 at $82.45, February lean hogs are down $2.75 at $85.70 and April lean hogs are down $2.57 at $91.45.

The projected CME Lean Hog Index is delayed from the source. Hog prices on the Daily Direct Morning Hog Report average $81.73, ranging from $80.00 to $87.50 on 4,017 head and a five-day rolling average of $81.99. Pork cutouts total 146.60 loads with 125.40 loads of pork cuts and 21.20 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: up $9.80, $97.43.

Monday Morning Livestock Market Update - Early Strength Anticipated

GENERAL COMMENTS:

Thinner trade Friday left cattle futures in a narrow range and closing under slight pressure. Higher corn prices gave something for traders to use for direction. Weekly exports sales were good at 12,900 metric tons (mt) providing some support. However, mixed boxed beef prices left the market a bit lackluster with choice down $0.73 and select up $1.04. It is difficult to determine how trading will develop after the holiday weekend, but with limited reaction to higher cash last week, it is likely traders will be interested in buying Monday. Feedlots will look for higher cash this week after the victory last week due to packers becoming more aggressive than initially expected.

It was not a good week for hogs as both cash and futures declined. The positive aspect was strong weekly export sales of 45,800 mt even though China was not a top buyer. Hog slaughter continues to remain strong even though cutout values continue to decline with a loss of $1.73 Friday. It is possible packers may have been building supplies for higher demand during the month of December, allowing them to meet that demand without having to chase the market. The technical action of futures may indicate futures may retest support from early November.

	BULL SIDE		BEAR SIDE
1)	It may be a delayed reaction to high cash last week. Traders may be aggressive buyers Monday.	1)	The inability of cattle futures to rally because of higher cash may not bode well. Thinner trade should have magnified the movement of futures.
2)	Feedlots scored a victory last week and will be looking for more this week. It is likely packers did not purchase many cattle for deferred delivery.	2)	Packers may not be as aggressive this week depending on chain speed. Slaughter pace may begin to slow through the end of the year.
3)	Strong pork export sales Friday may be traded Monday as traders will be back in full force.	3)	Continued weakness of cash and cutouts may leave the market floundering. There is little incentive for traders to buy into the market.
4)	Pork demand should increase as the month of December unfolds with pork prices very attractive at the retail level.	4)	Pork demand will need to improve or supplies with continue to grow, resulting in reduced slaughter.

Friday Closing Livestock Market Update - Sluggish Tones Summarize Post-Holiday Trade

GENERAL COMMENTS

It was a typical post-holiday trading day for the livestock complex as the markets saw little interest from traders and were left to fend for themselves. Hog prices averaged $82.95 on the Daily Direct Afternoon Hog Report, with a total of 3,375 head trading. December corn is up 4 3/4 cents per bushel and January soybean meal is down $1.10. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 152.97 points.

From Friday to Friday, livestock futures scored the following changes: December live cattle steady, February live cattle down $0.72; January feeder cattle down $2.47, March feeder cattle down $1.57; December lean hogs down $0.45, February lean hogs down $1.05; December corn steady, March corn up $0.01.

LIVE CATTLE:

It was a slow day for the live cattle market as the contracts didn't see much interest nor support from traders and as the cash cattle market traded earlier in the week. December live cattle closed $0.27 lower at $153.07, February live cattle closed $0.30 lower at $155.12 and April live cattle closed $0.15 lower at $158.97. Throughout the week, Northern cattle traded for $245 dressed, which is $3.00 higher than last week's weighted average. Southern live cattle traded for $154 to $155, which is roughly $4.00 higher than last week's weighted average. On Monday, it will be important to see how many cattle traded this week as a measure to gauge how active packers will be in next week's cash market. 

Thursday's slaughter is estimated at 2,000 head. Friday's slaughter is estimated at 112,000 head, 13,000 head less than a week ago and 4,000 head less than a year ago. Saturday's slaughter is projected to be around 81,000 head.

Beef net sales of 12,900 mt for 2022 were primarily for South Korea (4,600 mt), China (4,100 mt) and Japan (1,700 mt).

Boxed beef prices closed mixed: choice down $0.73 ($251.83) and select up $1.04 ($234.37) with a movement of 61 loads (36.87 loads of choice, 11.57 loads of select, 7.12 loads of trim and 5.43 loads of ground beef). The choice/select spread sits at $17.46.

MONDAY'S CATTLE CALL: Higher. With front-end supplies of market-ready cattle especially thin, packers will again likely have to support next week's market.

FEEDER CATTLE:

Not only did the feeder cattle contracts have to endure the same painstakingly slow day as the rest of the livestock contracts did, but it also had to witness and react to the slight rally that the corn complex managed to push throughout Friday's market. Nevertheless, come Monday the feeder cattle complex will be eyeing the corn market again to see if it's upward trajectory holds, or if Friday's higher trend was just a post-holiday thrill. January feeders closed $0.95 lower at $178.30, March feeders closed $0.80 lower at $181.55 and April feeders closed $0.92 lower at $185.12. The CME Feeder Cattle Index for Nov. 24: down $0.66, $173.63.

LEAN HOGS:

The lean hog complex closed with the same doggish tone that it possessed throughout the day as most market participants enjoyed a long weekend and let the market take care of itself through Friday's hours. December lean hogs closed $0.17 lower at $83.77, February lean hogs closed $0.30 lower at $88.50 and April lean hogs closed $0.57 lower at $94.02. Come Monday, the market will again be looking for support hopefully through stronger pork demand as some Christmas buying could be taking place in the retail sector. Pork cutouts totaled 208.88 loads with 187.09 loads of pork cuts and 21.78 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: down $1.73, $87.63. Thursday's slaughter is estimated at 2,000 head. Friday's slaughter is estimated at 465,000 head, 16,000 head less than a week ago and 7,000 head more than a year ago. Saturday's slaughter is projected to be around 328,000 head. The CME Lean Hog Index for Nov. 22: down $0.37, $86.17.

Pork net sales of 45,800 mt for 2022 were primarily for Mexico (18,200 mt), Japan (10,200 mt) and Canada (4,100 mt).

MONDAY'S HOG CALL: Steady. Thankfully export demand has been strong for the hog complex but if packers rein in processing speeds their need to chase the cash market will wane, especially with cold storage supplies as ample as they are.

Friday Midday Livestock Market Update - Sluggish Post-Holiday Trades Pushes Complex Lower

GENERAL COMMENTS:

The livestock complex is drifting lower into Friday's afternoon as the market longs for trader support and interest, but understands that most traders have checked out for long holiday weekend. The cash cattle market has seen any more trade develop and its looking like this week's cash market has seen most of what is going to see. December corn is up 4 3/4 cents per bushel and January soybean meal is down $1.20. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 178.34 points.

LIVE CATTLE:

The live cattle complex is also trending lower into Friday's afternoon as the market sees little interest from traders as many are out for a long holiday weekend. The cash cattle market hasn't seen much more action report and no bids have been renewed. Some late trade has been reported from Wednesday afternoon, but other than that, the cash market is still stagnant. Throughout the week, Northern cattle traded for $245 dressed, which is $3.00 higher than last week's weighted average. Southern live cattle traded for $154 to $155, which is roughly $4.00 higher than last week's weighted average. The futures market will likely keep with this sideways chop through closing and wait until next week to reassess the marketplace. December live cattle are down $0.20 at $153.15, February live cattle are down $0.37 at $155.05 and April live cattle are down $0.25 at $158.87.

Beef net sales of 12,900 mt for 2022 were primarily for South Korea (4,600 mt), China (4,100 mt) and Japan (1,700 mt).

Boxed beef prices are mixed: choice down $0.61 ($251.95) and select up $2.60 ($235.93) with a movement of 39 loads (24.12 loads of choice, 3.23 loads of select, 7.07 loads of ground beef and 4.54 loads of trim).

FEEDER CATTLE:

The feeder cattle complex is trading lower as the grain market is fronting a modest rally heading into Friday's afternoon. January feeders are down $0.80 at $178.45, March feeders are down $0.72 at $181.62 and April feeders are down $0.67 at $185.37. With not much news driving the markets ahead of the week's end, it's likely that the feeder cattle complex will close with this same lame dog tone.

LEAN HOGS:

The lean hog complex is keeping with its steady to somewhat lower trend heading into Friday's afternoon. With some traders taking in a long-holiday weekend, there's not much news driving the livestock contracts ahead of Friday's end. Come next week, the market will be looking for early Christmas buying from retailers and is hopeful that pork cutout prices may see some support from that. December lean hogs are down $0.22 at $83.77, February lean hogs are down $0.25 at $88.55 and April lean hogs are down $0.50 at $94.05.

Pork net sales of 45,800 mt for 2022 were primarily for Mexico (18,200 mt), Japan (10,200 mt) and Canada (4,100 mt).

The projected lean hog index is delayed from the source. Hog prices on the Daily Direct Morning Hog Report average $82.39, ranging from $78.50 to $87.50 on 2,380 head and a five-day rolling average of $82.00. Pork cutouts total 143.39 loads with 126.34 loads of pork cuts and 17.05 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: down $1.82, $87.54.

Friday Morning Livestock Market Update - Light Trading Activity Could Provide Volatility

GENERAL COMMENTS:

Cash cattle began trading Wednesday with prices developing with greater gains than expected. Packers stepped up to purchase ahead of Thanksgiving, paying $3.00 to $4.00 higher. What may stymie the strength of futures looking forward is the significant decline of boxed beef, showing choice down $4.07 and select down $0.85. This may just be temporary as retail outlets had sufficient beef on hand through the holiday. Or it could be the beginning of a slowing demand trend. Lighter trading volume with higher cash was unable to move futures higher, which was a bit of a surprise. Lighter trading activity is expected again Friday, which may not provide a good indication of direction. Grain markets were closed overnight, providing no indication of strength or weakness Friday.

Hog futures traded similar to cattle, seeing pressure throughout much of the day. Much of the cash business may have been accomplished this week, but if there is some clean-up business, it is expected to be done at lower prices. Futures struggled Wednesday due to lower cash with the National Direct Afternoon report down $0.62 and cutouts down $1.94. Bellies led the way lower with a decline of $6.65. Lighter trading activity may magnify price movement Friday.

	BULL SIDE		BEAR SIDE
1)	Cash cattle trading $3.00 to $4.00 higher this week should provide support to futures. If not Friday, strength may unfold next week.	1)	Cattle futures unable to rally on the strength of cash may indicate traders think packers may slow slaughter after the holiday to improve margins.
2)	The gain of cash indicates packers were short-bought and may be that way next week as well. Feedlots will look for more.	2)	Demand has remained strong but may decline through the end of the year as consumers continue to deal with high food prices. Slower demand would temper price potential.
3)	Optimism remains in later contracts as losses were minimal and August and December closed higher.	3)	Hog weights increased one pound to 284.4 last week, even though slaughter pace has been strong. This leaves more pork available to the market.
4)	Hog numbers are expected to tighten as market-ready hogs continue to be pulled forward. Hog weights remain six pounds below a year ago.	4)	Continued weakness of cash and cutouts is an anchor on the market in nearby months.

Wednesday Closing Livestock Market Update - Cash Cattle Heads Higher

GENERAL COMMENTS

Watching the futures contracts trade throughout Wednesday's market was like watching paint dry, but the dynamic nature of Wednesday's cash cattle trade made up for it. Even though it's a short holiday week, packers needed cattle and feedlots weren't willing to sell cattle at steady money. Hog prices closed lower on the Daily Direct Afternoon Hog Report, down $0.62 with a weighted average of $84.68 on 8,053 head. December corn is up 6 1/2 cents per bushel and December soybean meal is up $1.10. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 90.65 points.

LIVE CATTLE:

The live cattle futures complex didn't perform well throughout Wednesday's market as traders lackadaisically traded ahead of the Thursday's holiday break, but feedlots didn't approach Wednesday's market with the same mindset. It was invigorating to see cash cattle trade develop for $245 in the North ($3.00 higher than last week's weighted average) and for $154 to $155 in the South (roughly $4.00 higher than last week's weighted average). Thankfully for feedlots, packers were short bought coming into this week, and for those who needed cattle -- they ended up paying higher prices as feedlots still sit in the driver's seat of the cash cattle market. December live cattle closed $0.45 lower at $153.35, February live cattle closed $1.00 lower at $155.42 and April live cattle closed $0.77 lower at $159.12. 

Wednesday's slaughter is estimated at 129,000 head, steady with a week ago and 7,000 head more than a year ago.

Boxed beef prices closed lower: choice down $4.07 ($252.56) and select down $0.85 ($233.33) with a movement of 155 loads (92.81 loads of choice, 16.54 loads of select, 27.60 loads of trim and 18.23 loads of ground beef). The choice/select spread sits at $19.23.

FRIDAY'S CATTLE CALL: Steady. Given that prices shot higher, any more cattle that trade will likely trade steady with the week's trend.

FEEDER CATTLE:

Even though the grain market rallied only slightly, it was enough to rock Wednesday's feeder cattle market back on its heels and send the contracts tumbling 110 to 242 points lower by the day's close. One would think that the cash cattle market's $3.00 to $4.00 rally would more than outweigh the corn market's $0.06 rally, but the combination of higher grain prices amid a lightly traded market as some traders stepped out early for the holiday left the feeder cattle complex especially vulnerable. January feeders closed $2.42 lower at $179.25, March feeders closed $2.22 lower at $182.35 and April feeders closed $1.87 lower at $186.05. At Miles City Livestock Commission at Miles City, Montana, compared to last week, and on a run of 3,322 head, steer calves under 450 pounds traded $10.00 to $15.00 lower, steers weighing 450 to 549 pounds sold steady and those weighing over 550 pounds traded steady to $5.00 higher. Heifer calves under 450 pounds sold mostly $5.00 to $8.00 lower, heifers weighing 450 to 549 pounds sold steady and those weighing over 550 pounds traded mostly $5.00 higher. Feeder cattle supply over 600 pounds was 14%. The CME Feeder Cattle Index for Nov. 22: up $0.19, $174.83.

LEAN HOGS:

It's not surprising to see that the lean hog contracts simply chopped sideways to somewhat lower throughout Wednesday's market as traders weren't as aggressive and, with both cash prices and cutouts closing lower, it was farfetched to think that hogs would close higher. December lean hogs closed $0.30 lower at $83.95, February lean hogs closed $1.27 lower at $88.80 and April lean hogs closed $0.95 lower at $94.60. Pork cutouts totaled 374.62 loads with 329.03 loads of pork cuts and 45.59 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: down $1.94, $89.36. Wednesday's slaughter is estimated at 457,000 head, 31,000 head less than a week ago and 12,000 head less than a year ago. The CME Lean Hog Index for Nov. 21: down $0.43, $86.54.

FRIDAY'S HOG CALL: Lower. The cash market could see a little more trade develop come Friday, but it's likely that this week's cash hog trade is all but done with.

Wednesday Midday Livestock Market Summary - Cash Cattle Prices Gain Another $3.00 to $4.00

GENERAL COMMENTS:

The livestock complex is trending lower into Wednesday's afternoon as the market isn't seeing much interest from traders. The cash cattle market has performed extremely well, however, as prices have jumped $3.00 to $4.00 higher compared to last week's weighted average. December corn is up 3 3/4 cents per bushel and December soybean meal is up $1.40. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 13.17 points.

**USDA is experiencing technical difficulties and no reports are available at this time.

LIVE CATTLE:

It's a glorious day for the cash cattle market as feedlots have again been rewarded for their patience. There's been a light movement in the North at $245 dressed, which is $3.00 higher than last week's weighted average. Some cattle have traded in the South for $154 to $155, which is roughly $4.00 higher than last week's weighted average. This week's cash cattle market shows just how important it is for cattlemen to stay engaged in the marketplace even during the holidays because you never know when prices are going to be advanced higher. With packers continuing to run aggressive processing speeds and front-end supplies of market-ready cattle thin, packers had to jump in and support the market even though it's a holiday week. It's somewhat disappointing to see that the futures complex isn't rallying alongside the cash cattle market, as one would think that this development is just the fundamental support that traders were after. More likely than not, Wednesday's unenthusiastic trade throughout the futures complex stems from the fact that the market's only being thinly traded as some participants have already stepped out the door for a long weekend. December live cattle are down $0.20 at $153.60, February live cattle are down $0.92 at $155.50 and April live cattle are down $0.77 at $159.12.

Boxed beef prices are unavailable at this time as USDA is experiencing technical difficulties.

FEEDER CATTLE:

Even the slightest advancement in the corn sector is enough to push feeders lower even as the cash cattle market charges higher. As the market approaches the noon hour, the nearby corn contracts are trending $0.02 to $0.03 higher which is just enough pressure to send feeders crashing lower. January feeders are down $1.97 at $179.70, March feeders are down $1.80 at $182.77 and April feeders are down $1.72 at $186.20. Unless the rally in the grain complex subsides, it's not likely that the feeder cattle market will turn around ahead of closing as its market is thinly traded and traders could be stepping out early for Thanksgiving festivities.

LEAN HOGS:

The lean hog complex is keeping with its mundane sideways chop as Wednesday's noon hour approaches. The cash hog market could see some more interest throughout Wednesday's market as packers will likely be absent from the market on Friday. Nevertheless, the market isn't seeing much interest as will likely close with this same unenergetic tone. December lean hogs are up $0.25 at $84.50, February lean hogs are down $0.47 at $89.60 and April lean hogs are down $0.37 at $95.17.

The projected lean hog index for Nov. 22 is down $0.37 at $86.17, and the actual index for Nov. 21 is down $0.43 at $86.54. Both pork cutout values and cash prices are unavailable at this time as USDA is experiencing widespread technical difficulties.

Wednesday Morning Livestock Market Update - Traders Wait for Cash Cattle to Trade

GENERAL COMMENTS:

Trading activity was a bit disappointing for cattle as the Cattle on Feed report was expected to provide further strength than just one day. However, there should be good support under the market as cattle numbers tighten. Packers will need to take care of business Wednesday as they do not have many purchased ahead. Feedlots want higher cash but also want to move cattle that are ready to sell. The anticipation is for higher cash, but traders are cautious and want to see evidence of it before pushing futures higher. Boxed beef was higher with choice up $1.06 and select up $0.95. The October Cold Storage report showed beef supply up 8% from a year ago but this should not have a bearish influence on the market. Thinner trading activity ahead of the holiday might result in futures closing the chart gaps left on Monday.

Hogs saw another day of higher cash with the National Direct Afternoon Hog report posting a gain of $3.14. Even with stronger cash, aggressive buying was not triggered in futures. Cutouts continued to struggle with a loss of $0.69. Even though it seems hog supplies are current, there remain sufficient hogs available for increased chain speeds. The October Cold Storage report was not bullish as frozen pork stocks grew 16% from a year ago with belly stocks up 246% from a year ago. Not only is demand being met but inventory is growing. Packers will need to finish up business for the week, which could leave them somewhat aggressive Wednesday. The markets will be closed Thursday and reopen again on Friday.

	BULL SIDE		BEAR SIDE
1)	Packers will need to do business Wednesday and might be aggressive as they do not have many cattle contracted ahead.	1)	Cattle futures failed to push higher Tuesday and did not close the chart gaps below the market. Gaps may be closed Wednesday.
2)	Reduced trader participation in the market Wednesday might allow futures to move higher in anticipation of higher cash and bullishness from the Cattle on Feed report.	2)	Cash is anticipated to be higher this week. If cattle trade steady, traders will be sellers in a thinly traded market which could magnify price movement.
3)	July, August, and October hog futures continue to trend higher, making another new high again Tuesday. Traders seem confident about higher prices to come.	3)	Pork cutouts continue to struggle, unable to find solid support.
4)	Hog slaughter pace remains strong as competitive prices keep demand higher for pork. Demand is generally strong at this time of year.	4)	Packers have no difficulty finding sufficient hogs for the increased slaughter pace. They may not be aggressive Wednesday due to a holiday-shortened week.

Tuesday Closing Livestock Market Update - Feedlots Aim to Push the Cash Cattle Market Higher

GENERAL COMMENTS

It was a mixed day for the livestock complex as the contracts closed mostly lower but neither the live cattle nor feeder cattle threw away all that Monday accomplished. Wednesday's focus will be the cash cattle market and what feedlots accomplish this week. Hog prices closed higher on the Daily Direct Afternoon Hog Report, up $3.14 with a weighted average of $85.30 on 10,051 head. December corn is down 2 3/4 cents per bushel and December soybean meal is down $2.80. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 397.82 points.

Tuesday's Cold Storage report shared that total red meat supplies in freezers were down 4% from the previous month, but up 11% from last year. Total pounds of beef in freezers were down 3% from the previous month but up 8% from last year. Frozen pork supplies were down 5% from the previous month, but up 16% from last year. Stocks of pork bellies were up 10% from last month and up 246% from last year. Total stocks of chicken were up 2% from last up and up 18% from last year. Total pounds of turkey in freezers were 32% from last month and down 12% from Oct. 31,2021.

LIVE CATTLE:

The live cattle complex drew back as Tuesday's end neared, and as traders seem to be looking for reassurance in this week's cash cattle market before they'll advance the complex any higher. It was impressive, however, that, in both the live cattle and feeder cattle markets, traders didn't panic and opt to trade lower throughout Tuesday's market to fill in the gap created by Monday's strong open. It is assumed that cash cattle prices will indeed be higher this week as front-end supplies are current and as packers are short bought. Some bids of $242 to $245 were offered in Nebraska Tuesday morning, but largely feedlots let those bids sit idle as they're looking for more. Asking prices for cattle in the South are noted at $154 to $155 and are still unknown in the North. Some light trade developed throughout the day, but largely it wasn't enough to say that any sort of a trend was established. Both cattlemen and traders will be looking to Wednesday's market for more answers on how this week's cash cattle trade will shake out. December live cattle closed $0.25 higher at $153.80, February live cattle closed $0.30 lower at $156.42 and April live cattle closed $0.22 lower at $159.90. 

Tuesday's slaughter is estimated at 129,000 head, steady with a week ago and 5,000 head more than a year ago.

Boxed beef prices closed higher: choice up $1.06 ($256.63) and select up $0.95 ($234.18) with a movement of 157 loads (107.71 loads of choice, 17.30 loads of select, 7.12 loads of trim and 23.43 loads of ground beef). The choice/select spread sits at $22.45.

WEDNESDAY'S CATTLE CALL: $1.00 to $2.00 higher. With supplies of market-ready cattle thin -- and packers in need of cattle -- prices will likely be higher.

FEEDER CATTLE:

One would have hoped that, with the corn complex closing lower, feeders would have capitalized on the day's opportunity and closed higher, but even though that wasn't the story that played out through Tuesday's market, it was still impressive that traders didn't collapse and fill the gap made by Monday's open. January feeders closed $0.95 lower at $181.67, March feeders closed $0.52 lower at $184.57 and April feeders closed $0.12 lower at $187.92. It's not so much that traders didn't believe in pushing the market higher, but rather instead that they were looking for followed through support from the live cattle market (and more so the cash cattle market) before advancing the complex any higher. If the corn market continues to chop sideways and the momentum in the live cattle market continues to build, then there's upside in this market for feeders to chase after. Joplin Regional Stockyards in Carthage, Missouri, on a run of close to 12,000 head, feeder steers traded steady to $3.00 higher, and feeder heifers traded steady to $4.00 higher. Feeder cattle supply over 600 pounds was 78%. The CME Feeder Cattle Index for Nov. 21: steady, $174.64.

LEAN HOGS:

The lean hog complex skated by and was able to keep a mixed position ahead of Tuesday's end. The demand in the cash market helped the spot December contract close higher, but the lower close in pork cutout values hinders the market's moral. December lean hogs closed $0.45 higher at $84.25, February lean hogs closed $0.07 lower at $90.07 and April lean hogs closed $0.07 higher at $95.55. It's not surprising to see pork cutout values lower as supplies in cold storage is vast, especially for bellies. Pork cutouts totaled 264.92 loads with 231.01 loads of pork cuts and 33.91 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: down $0.69, $91.30. Tuesday's slaughter is estimated at 492,000 head, 3,000 head less than a week ago and 9,000 head more than a year ago. The CME Lean Hog Index for Nov. 18: down $0.80, $86.97.

WEDNESDAY'S HOG CALL: Steady to somewhat higher. The cash market could see some more interest on Wednesday, but then it's likely that the week's cash trade is all but over for the hog market.

Tuesday Midday Livestock Market Summary - Strong Tones Keep Contracts Elevated

GENERAL COMMENTS:

The livestock complex took time to warm up, but as Tuesday's noon hour nears, all three of the livestock contracts are trading mostly higher into Tuesday's afternoon. The cash cattle market is seeing some light interest develop in Nebraska, but otherwise packers haven't shown the market much attention at this point. December corn is steady and December soybean meal is steady. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 274.25 points.

LIVE CATTLE:

The live cattle complex opened mostly steady with Monday's close, but as the market has had more time to trade, traders are again advancing the contracts as nearly all the live cattle contracts are trading higher into Tuesday's afternoon. There's a widespread consensus that cash cattle prices will be higher again this week as packers are pressured to continue to support the cash market as front-end supplies of cattle are thin and will only become thinner in the weeks ahead. There are a few bids being offered in Nebraska, ranging from $242 to $245, but at this point feedlots have yet to jump on any of the offers. Asking prices in the South are noted at $154 to $155, but no bids have been noted in the South at this point. December live cattle are up $0.25 at $153.82, February live cattle are down $0.05 at $156.67 and April live cattle are up $0.02 at $160.15. The cash cattle market could see some trade develop Tuesday afternoon, but with feedlots again aiming for higher prices, it's more likely that trade waits to develop until Wednesday.

Boxed beef prices are higher: choice up $1.96 ($257.53) and select up $1.84 ($235.07) with a movement of 85 loads (57.37 loads of choice, 9.13 loads of select, 5.57 loads of trim and 12.85 loads of ground beef).

FEEDER CATTLE:

The feeder cattle complex is trading mixed into Tuesday's afternoon as the market keeps a close eye on the corn complex and hopes that its recent regression will allow for the feeder cattle market to trade higher Tuesday afternoon. It was reassuring to see the feeder cattle complex open steady with Monday's close as traders could have easily jumped ship and opted to fill in the gap that Monday's higher start created. However, feeder cattle demand remains relatively strong and corn prices hold somewhat steady, and feeders are hopeful that there may be a chance to trade higher this afternoon as the market hasn't lost sight of last Friday's bullish Cattle on Feed report and as most of the live cattle contracts are trading higher into Tuesday's afternoon. January feeders are down $0.57 at $182.05, March feeders are down $0.30 at $184.80 and April feeders are up $0.02 at $188.07.

LEAN HOGS:

The lean hog complex is keeping with Monday's mildly higher theme as the market chops sideways. Packers are again pushing the day's midday cash prices higher as they look to procure their needs in the cash market early in the week as they'll likely be absent from the market on Friday. It will be interesting to see how pork cutout values close this afternoon as prices have been under pressure, but some early Christmas buying could spark slightly higher tones, and hopefully large volumes of product sold. December lean hogs are up $0.80 at $84.60, February lean hogs are up $0.52 at $90.67 and April lean hogs are up $0.42 at $95.90.

The projected lean hog index for Nov. 21 is down $0.43 at $86.54, and the actual index for Nov. 18 is down $0.80 at $86.97. Hog prices are higher on the Daily Direct Morning Hog Report, up $0.31 with a weighted average of $82.06, ranging from $81.00 to $87.50 on 3,911 head and a five-day rolling average of $83.09. Pork cutouts total 149.53 loads with 130.91 loads of pork cuts and 18.62 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: up $1.72, $93.71.

Tuesday Morning Livestock Market Update - Follow-Through Strength Expected

GENERAL COMMENTS:

The cattle market gapped open as expected, but futures did not move as high as most expected. This is understandable as futures moved up last week, having already some of it factored in. Nevertheless, the gains pushed April and later live cattle contracts to new highs with nearby December and February positioned to challenge the highs. Cash cattle did not trade, but boxed beef was supportive. Choice cuts were up $0.51 with select up $0.79. Cash business may surface Tuesday due to the holiday-shortened week with expectations of stronger cash. Feeder cattle found support not only from the Cattle on Feed report but also from the pressure on corn futures Monday. Feeder cattle prices at auctions remain mixed. The Commitment of Traders report showed funds reducing their long positions by 10,475 contracts to a net-long position of 49,704.

Hog futures showed spread trading again with pressure on front-month December. There is a growing optimism over hog prices next year with July, August, and September contracts making new highs. Cash traded higher Monday with the National Direct Afternoon Hog report showing a gain of $0.35. This is unusual for a Monday, but business needed to be done due to the shorter week. Cutouts were not supportive, declining $1.45. Slaughter continues to remain strong with more hogs needed to fill the increased pace. The Commitment of Traders report showed funds increasing their long positions by 901 contracts to a net long of 53,460 futures contracts.

	BULL SIDE		BEAR SIDE
1)	Later cattle contracts made new highs, which should provide confidence for traders to buy and hold positions.	1)	Both live and feeder cattle contracts have gaps below the market that will be filled.
2)	Cattle supplies will become tighter as time progresses, as indicated by the Cattle on Feed report. Prices should remain supported and move higher.	2)	Boxed beef continues to flounder, leaving packer margins substantially lower than last year and the three-year average. Packers may reduce slaughter pace moving into next year.
3)	Increased hog slaughter continues to pull hogs forward, keeping weights lower. This should tighten supply over time.	3)	Hog cutouts have not been able to trend higher. Increased slaughter leaves a plentiful supply of pork available to the market.
4)	There is strong optimism for hog prices next year with summer prices well into the triple-digits.	4)	Packers do not need to be aggressively chasing hogs in the country. The supply of hogs is sufficient to meet demand without any concern on the lack of supply.

Monday Closing Livestock Market Update - Cattle Run Higher

GENERAL COMMENTS

Monday provided the cattle contracts the opportunity needed in order to trade higher and the contracts didn't squander that opening in the market. Come Tuesday, it will be interesting to see if traders keep with the upward momentum in the cattle complex, or if they regress and fill in the gap that Monday's contracts made. Hog prices closed higher on the Daily Direct Afternoon Hog Report, up $0.35 with a weighted average of $82.16 on 4,217 head. December corn is down 8 1/4 cents per bushel and December soybean meal is up $1.00. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 45.41 points.

LIVE CATTLE:

It was a refreshing day for the live cattle complex as the market finally had the chance to trade after seeing last Friday's bullish Cattle on Feed report. From the day's get-go, the market gapped higher, signaling that traders are fully supportive of the market's desires to trade higher. The combination of last week's strong cash trade that scored a new marketing-year high at $153.04 (which is also the highest the market has traded since 2015) along with the lower number of cattle on feed and the lighter placements gave traders all the support they needed in order to confidently push the market higher. December live cattle closed $0.47 higher at $153.55, February live cattle closed $0.87 higher at $156.72 and April live cattle closed $0.87 higher at $160.12. 

Monday's slaughter is estimated at 128,000 head, steady with a week ago but 6,000 head more than a year ago. Showlists this week are lighter in Kansas and Texas, but slightly higher in Nebraska/Colorado.

Last week's negotiated cash cattle trade totaled 90,590 head. Of that, 75,229 head (83%) were committed to the nearby delivery, while the remaining 15,361 head (17%) were committed to the deferred delivery. Most of last week's business took place on Wednesday and Thursday, though there was a little clean-up trade that happened on Friday. In the Southern Plains, cattle traded for $148 to $152 live, but mostly at $150 to $151, which was steady to $1.00 higher than the previous week's weighted average. In the North dressed cattle traded for $236 to $252, but mostly at $242, which was fully steady with the previous week's weighted average.

Boxed beef prices closed higher: choice up $0.51 ($244.38) and select up $0.79 ($233.62) with a movement of 112 loads (69.35 loads of choice, 17.05 loads of select, 11.76 loads of trim and 14.11 loads of ground beef). The choice/select spread sits at $21.76.

TUESDAY'S CATTLE CALL: $1.00 to $2.00 higher. This week's cash cattle market is anticipated to trade higher as packers are in need of cattle and front-end supplies are current.

FEEDER CATTLE:

It was an exhilarating day for the feeder cattle contracts as the market gapped higher at Monday's opening bell and set out to pursue an aggressive day. With the corn complex closing $0.05 to $0.08 lower by Monday's end, the feeder cattle contracts were able to close anywhere from 120 to 197 points higher. It was rather impressive that the market was able to close above its 100-day moving average, signaling that traders are eager to push a technical rally so long as the fundamental support doesn't wane. However, the combination of weaker grain prices and the rather supportive news of last Friday's Cattle on Feed report created a perfect storm for the feeder cattle complex. At Oklahoma's National Stockyards in Oklahoma City, Oklahoma, compared to last week, and at their midsession point, feeder steers were trading steady to $2.00 higher and feeder heifers were trading steady to $2.00 lower. Steer and heifer calves traded mostly $3.00 to $6.00 higher. Demand was good for lightweight grazing cattle. Feeder cattle supply over 600 pounds was 37%. The CME Feeder Cattle Index for Nov. 18: down $0.72, $174.64.

LEAN HOGS:

Hog prices closed mildly higher as the market absorbed some of the energy that brewed in the cattle complex and was thankful to see early support in the cash market. Given that this is a holiday shortened week for Thanksgiving, packers will likely support the cash sector through Wednesday but not be present in Friday's market. Monitoring pork cutout values remains an important task as thanksgiving buying may be done, but retailers will need to stock up for Christmas. The carcass closed $1.45 lower with the biggest losses seen in the ham (down $4.29) and the belly (down $2.51), while the loin posted a modest $1.19 gain. December lean hogs closed $0.42 lower at $83.80, February lean hogs closed $0.60 higher at $90.15 and April lean hogs closed $0.55 higher at $95.47. Pork cutouts totaled 370.33 loads with 327.93 loads of pork cuts and 42.40 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: down $1.45, $91.99. Monday's slaughter is estimated at 488,000 head, 3,000 head more than a week ago and 8,000 head more than a year ago. The CME Lean Hog Index for Nov. 17: down $0.37, $87.77.

TUESDAY'S HOG CALL: Higher. With this being a holiday-shortened week, packers are expected to show the market more interest early on.

Monday Midday Livestock Market Update - Cattle Charge Higher Thanks to Friday's Supportive Cattle on Feed Report

GENERAL COMMENTS:

The livestock complex is trading higher into Monday's afternoon as the cattle contracts trade bullishly thanks to last Friday's Cattle on Feed report, and the lean hog market is soaking up some of the positive spillover energy. The cash cattle market could see trade as early as Tuesday as it's a holiday shortened week. December corn is down 5 3/4 cents per bushel and December soybean meal is up $2.90. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 36.43 points.

LIVE CATTLE:

The live cattle market gapped higher at the day's start as the market is excited to trade after last Friday's extremely bullish Cattle on Feed report. The live cattle complex is trading higher as the market finally sees the fundamental support it was needing from the COF reports. Boxed beef demand, throughput and cash cattle prices have all been supportive of the market, but until the most recent COF report, the data that the COF reports shared wasn't jiving with the rest of the market. But from now on and well into 2023, bullish COF reports are expected as the market simply doesn't possess as many cows as it did in years past. It's tough telling what this week's cash cattle market will do, given that it's a holiday shortened week, but it was interesting to note that packers bought 83% of last week's cash cattle for the nearby delivery which points to the fact that they're still somewhat short-bought and in need of cattle. December live cattle are up $0.37 at $153.45, February live cattle are up $0.82 at $156.65 an April live cattle are up $0.82 at $160.07.

Last week's negotiated cash cattle trade totaled 90,590 head. Of that, 75,229 head (83%) were committed to the nearby delivery, while the remaining 15,361 head (17%) were committed to the deferred delivery. Most of last week's business took place on Wednesday and Thursday, though there was a little clean up trade that happened on Friday. In the Southern plains cattle traded for $148 to $152 live, but mostly at $150 to $151, which was steady to $1.00 higher than the previous week's weighted average. In the North dressed cattle traded for $236 to $252, but mostly at $242, which was fully steady with the previous week's weighted average.

Boxed beef prices are mixed: choice down $0.25 ($254.62) and select up $1.14 ($233.97) with a movement of 68 loads (42.44 loads of choice, 10.12 loads of select, 6.26 loads of trim and 8.79 loads of ground beef).

FEEDER CATTLE:

The corn complex is trading $0.04 to $0.06 lower heading into Monday's afternoon, which is helping propel the feeder cattle contracts higher. The combination of cheaper grain prices and Friday's bullish Cattle on Feed report led to a higher gap in the feeder cattle contracts at Monday's start, and has since allowed for the market to continue to trade higher ever since. It's important to note that, during the year's biggest placement month of October, there were 6% fewer cattle placed last month than a year ago, which is also the lightest October placement data that the COF report has seen since its start, over 26 years ago. January feeders are up $1.75 higher at $182.52, March feeders are up $1.80 higher at $184.92 and April feeders are up $1.67 higher at $187.77.

LEAN HOGS:

The lean hog complex is mostly rallying into Monday's afternoon as traders note the slight uptick in midday pork cutout values and expect to see strong cash interest early this week as it's a holiday-shortened week and packers won't likely participate in the market after Wednesday. At this point, holiday buying for Thanksgiving has already happened, but steady demand is expected to keep prices chopping mostly steady. December lean hogs are down $0.55 at $83.67, February lean hogs are up $0.50 at $90.05 and April lean hogs are up $0.32 at $95.25.

The projected lean hog index for Nov. 18 is down $0.80 at $86.97, and the actual index for Nov. 17 is down $0.37 at $87.77. Hog prices are lower on the Daily Direct Morning Hog Report, down $0.01 with a weighted average of $81.75, ranging from $80.00 to $90.00 on 3,762 head and five-day rolling average of $83.56. Pork cutouts total 210.15 loads with 180.48 loads of pork cuts and 29.67 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: up $0.56, $94.00.

Monday Morning Livestock Market Update - Cattle Futures Expected to Gap Higher

GENERAL COMMENTS:

Traders did not seem overly concerned over the Cattle on Feed report Friday as futures closed higher across the board. The previous Cattle on Feed report was bullish, and the expectations were for a friendly report this time and that is what they got. The report was bullish for on-feed numbers and placements while being neutral for marketings. The on-feed number was bullish, being below the trade estimates. The big number in this report was the placements. This placement number is the lowest for October since the series began in 1996. Some of the states to make note of is Iowa at 90% of a year ago, Kansas at 97%, Nebraska at 94%, and Texas at 86% versus a year ago. The Texas placement number is bullish for the cash markets as we move forward. Cattle are expected to gap higher on the open with the potential for the market to reach and exceed contract highs. Boxed beef was mixed Friday with choice down $2.23 and select up $1.09. Packers may be more active earlier due to the holiday-shortened week.

Hogs moved in the opposite direction Friday. Traders seemed more interested in liquidating ahead of the weekend. Packers may not be as aggressive this week as the holiday will reduce the need for hogs. Slaughter was higher last week with a strong Saturday kill as packers worked ahead without difficulty. Market-ready hogs are current with weights significantly lower than a year ago. There may be some spillover support from cattle Monday, along with support from higher cutouts on Friday posting gains of $0.81.

	BULL SIDE		BEAR SIDE
1)	The Cattle on Feed report was bullish and is expected to cause the market to gap higher on the open.	1)	The bullishness of the Cattle on Feed report may be short-lived if higher prices curtail demand.
2)	Live cattle futures breaking above contact highs may result in strong buying as short-covering would be triggered and stops are hit.	2)	Beef packer margins are currently substantially below last year and the three-year average.
3)	Hog futures remain in an uptrend despite the decline on Friday. Spillover from cattle could resume the uptrend.	3)	Even though this is a higher demand time of year, pork cutouts continue to struggle as there is ample supply.
4)	Hogs are current due to a strong slaughter pace with weights running significantly below a year ago.	4)	Hog futures have not been able to penetrate chart resistance in the February, April, and May contracts.