Thursday Closing Livestock Market Update - Cash Cattle Prices Trade Steady to $3.00 Lower

GENERAL COMMENTS:

The cattle complex was relieved to see trade develop and for prices to remain steady to $3.00 lower across both regions. Meanwhile, the lean hog complex closed lower as traders were exhausted after trading the market higher just Wednesday. Hog prices closed lower on the Daily Direct Afternoon Hog Report, down $0.42 with a weighted average price of $80.13 on 1,688 head. December corn is down 2 1/2 cents per bushel and December soybean meal is down $6.20. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 155.05 points.

LIVE CATTLE:

The live cattle complex was relieved to see cash cattle trade develop and for prices to hold fairly firm. In the North, cattle traded for $290, which is $3.00 lower than last week's weighted average, but Southern live cattle traded for $179, which is mostly steady with the previous week's weighted average. And, considering that packers are working with thin margins and that we are in the dog days of summer, it's commendable that feedlots have keep the bottom of this market as strong as they have. Asking prices for left for cattle to sell remain at $181 to $182 in the South and $292 to $294 in the North. October live cattle closed $0.77 higher at $180.82, December live cattle closed $0.57 higher at $184.80 and February live cattle closed $0.50 higher at $188.85. 

Thursday's slaughter is estimated at 124,000 head, steady with a week ago and 1,000 head less than a year ago.

Thursday's actual slaughter data shared that, for the week ending Aug. 19, steers averaged 905 pounds, which is 4 pounds heavier than the previous week and 1 pound heavier than a year ago. During the same week, heifers averaged 820 pounds, which is steady with the previous week but 2 pounds lighter than a year ago.

Beef net sales of 18,200 mt for 2023 were up 59% from the previous week and 35% from the prior four-week average. The three largest buyers were China (6,100 mt), Japan (3,400 mt) and South Korea (2,400 mt).

Boxed beef prices closed lower: choice down $1.32 ($313.79) and select down $0.28 ($289.25) with a movement of 105 loads (61.05 loads of choice, 20.55 loads of select, 14.96 loads of trim and 8.82 loads of ground beef).

FRIDAY'S CATTLE CALL: Steady. Depending on how many more cattle packers need, prices could potentially improve Friday if they're desperate for cattle, but it's more likely that trade remains steady given that prices have been mostly set in both regions.

FEEDER CATTLE:

The feeder cattle complex closed higher as the market was pleased to see the live cattle contracts trade higher and it helped that corn prices again closed lower. Yes, of the cash cattle trade that did develop prices were called steady to $3.00 lower across the two regions, but feeders found that comforting as it beats seeing prices smacked $5.00 to $8.00 lower on any given week. September feeders closed $0.65 higher at $253.27, October feeders closed $0.80 higher at $256.02 and November feeders closed $0.92 higher at $257.65. The CME Feeder Cattle Index for Aug. 30: down $0.20, $248.95.

LEAN HOGS:

It was a tough technical day for the lean hog complex as the nearby contracts were held back and forced to close lower as traders didn't find enough support in the day's fundamentals to deem higher trade appropriate after Wednesday's big run. The further you look into the 2024 contracts, however, the more optimistic traders were through Thursday's end. It's likely that traders believe that the market's uncertainty regarding Prop 12 will be mostly ironed out at that point. October lean hogs closed $1.05 lower at $82.55, December lean hogs closed $0.77 lower at $74.32 and February lean hogs closed $0.40 lower at $78.70. Pork cutouts totaled 248.59 loads with 214.67 loads of pork cuts and 33.92 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: up $0.10, $92.22. Thursday's slaughter is estimated at 469,000 head, 4,000 head more than a week ago and 15,000 head less than a year ago. Wednesday's slaughter was revised to 473,000 head. The CME Lean Hog Index for Aug. 29: down $1.74, $90.67.

Pork net sales of 36,900 mt for 2023 were up 12% from the previous week and 45% from the prior four-week average. The three largest buyers were Mexico (12,000 mt), China (7,800 mt) and South Korea (5,500 mt).

FRIDAY'S HOG CALL: Lower. Given that it's Friday, packers won't likely need support the cash market much.

Thursday Midday Livestock Market Summary - Traders Keep Looking for Reassurance

GENERAL COMMENTS:

The livestock complex is trading lower into Thursday's noon hour as traders look to the market's fundamentals for support but aren't finding the reassurance that they'd like to see. Some light trade is currently being reported in Nebraska, but largely the cash cattle market has yet to see cattle trade. December corn is down 1/2 cent per bushel and December soybean meal is down $5.60. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 9.88 points.

LIVE CATTLE:

The live cattle complex is again trading lower as traders tap their feet patiently waiting to see how the cards land in this week's cash cattle market. With packers unable to buy a plethora of cattle in last week's negotiated cash cattle trade, it's likely that they'll have to engaged in this week's market more than they'd ideally like to. A light trade is just now being reported in Nebraska at $290, which is $3.00 lower than last week's weighted average, and live in Nebraska at $182 to $184 which is $1.00 to $3.00 lower. On Wednesday in Iowa, some cattle traded at $184 to $187 live, and some dressed trade at $290, and some heifers did trade in Kansas at $179 Wednesday afternoon, but neither of these sales were large enough to say that any sort of a market tone has been set. Asking prices in the South remain firm at $181 to $182 and in the South at $292 to $294. October live cattle are down $0.60 at $179.45, December live cattle are down $0.82 at $183.40 and February live cattle are down $0.77 at $187.57.

Beef net sales of 18,200 mt for 2023 were up 59% from the previous week and 35% from the prior four-week average. The three largest buyers were China (6,100 mt), Japan (3,400 mt) and South Korea (2,400 mt).

Boxed beef prices are mixed: choice down $0.72 ($314.39) and select up $1.49 ($291.02) with a movement of 47 loads (20.50 loads of choice, 6.88 loads of select, 12.48 loads of trim and 7.23 loads of ground beef).

FEEDER CATTLE:

The feeder cattle complex is again trading lower as traders wait to see what feedlots accomplish in this week's cash market. Yes, corn prices are trading slightly higher, but with nearby contracts only fronting a mere steady to $0.03 rally, the market is mainly trading lower as traders want and need to see continued support from the live cattle/cash cattle market. September feeders are down $1.47 at $251.15, October feeders are down $1.40 at $253.82 and November feeders are down $1.37 at $255.32.

LEAN HOGS:

Even though cash prices and midday pork cutout values are higher, traders aren't finding enough fundamental support in the market to deem it appropriate push the contracts any higher after Wednesday's significantly higher move. October lean hogs are down $1.17 at $82.42, December lean hogs are down $0.82 at $74.27 and February lean hogs are down $0.60 at $78.50. Even if pork cutout values do close sharply higher, it's unlikely that traders will move the contracts much beyond Wednesday's closing price as they're going to need to see some long-term continued support in pork cutout values before they push much higher.

The projected lean hog index for Aug. 30 is down $1.41 at $89.26, and the actual index for Aug. 29 is down $1.74 at $90.67. Hog prices are higher on the Daily Direct Morning Hog Report, up $3.31 with a weighted average price of $83.80, ranging from $70.00 to $98.00 on 1,363 head and a five-day rolling average of $82.01. Pork cutouts total 111.00 loads with 92.09 loads of pork cuts and 18.91 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: up $0.61, $92.73.

Pork net sales of 36,900 mt for 2023 were up 12% from the previous week and 45% from the prior four-week average. The three largest buyers were Mexico (12,000 mt), China (7,800 mt) and South Korea (5,500 mt).

Thursday Morning Livestock Market Update - Cash Cattle Expected to Trade

GENERAL COMMENTS:

Cattle futures tipped back Wednesday as traders seemed uninterested in attempting to guess what cash will do this week. There were some very limited sales in Iowa at steady prices, but the volume was so light traders could not determine what the week would bring. I think cash will trade Thursday rather than delaying it until Friday with the upcoming Labor Day weekend and the proverbial end of summer. Slaughter will be lighter next week due to one less day, which may result in packers being less aggressive. Boxed beef prices were mixed with choice up $0.75 and select down $0.15. The market may be heading into a period of slower demand and seasonally weaker boxed beef prices, which is what futures may be reflecting. Weekly export sales will be released Thursday morning and may have some influence on the trade; but it is better viewed in the larger picture of demand and not the immediate. Thursday is the last trading day for August live cattle and August feeder cattle.

Hogs were a surprise Wednesday seemingly unconcerned over the weakness of cash and cutouts Tuesday. The National Direct Afternoon Hog report showed cash down $0.86 with a weighted average of $80.55. This would suggest lower cash might take place Thursday with packers purchasing what they need with the upcoming holiday impacting slaughter numbers. Saturday slaughter through yesterday was estimated at no hogs with plants being dark. However, one packer has had mechanical problems this week, which may result in some catch-up on Saturday. That should be confirmed today. No cutouts values were released Wednesday due to packer submission issues with those prices to be released Thursday morning. It will be interesting to see what they show, which could have an influence on trading. Weekly export sales may also have some influence.

	BULL SIDE		BEAR SIDE
1)	Bids at steady prices for cattle in some areas were passed Wednesday as feedlots want to see some benefit for their efforts.	1)	The cattle complex could not garner support from weaker corn prices as traders are more focused on cash and the potential for seasonal boxed beef weakness despite tighter numbers.
2)	Packers did not get many cattle purchased ahead last week for deferred delivery, which may require them to be a little more aggressive this week.	2)	Live cattle closed below the 40-day moving average again, which could increase technical selling.
3)	Hogs moved above technical resistance Wednesday, which could result in some follow-through today as further short covering takes place.	3)	Cash hogs and pork cutouts have been under substantial pressure with packers able to purchase what they need without difficulty.
4)	Packers may be more aggressive Thursday in their quest to purchase hogs ahead of the weekend instead of waiting until Friday to finish purchases. This could support cash.	4)	The strength Wednesday was technically driven, lacking fundamental support. Futures may fall back if cash and cutouts do not show substantial strength Thursday.

Wednesday Closing Livestock Market Update - Hogs Break Through Nearby Resistance; Cattle Close Lower

GENERAL COMMENTS:

The lean hog market saw good support through Wednesday's close, but both the live cattle and feeder cattle contracts closed lower. Heading into Thursday's market, traders are hopeful that some positive new will shine from the cash cattle market and comfort them that steady/slightly higher trade is merited. Hog prices closed lower on the Daily Direct Afternoon Hog Report, down $0.86 with a weighted average price of $80.55 on 6,912 head. December corn is down 6 cents per bushel and December soybean meal is down $1.70. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 37.57 points.

LIVE CATTLE:

The live cattle complex kept with its lackluster tone through Wednesday's end as traders were simply unwilling to support the contracts unless something supportive developed fundamentally. Boxed beef prices were able to round out the day mixed with choice cuts again seeing a little more support, but still no sizeable trade has developed in the cash cattle market. Throughout the day there was a bid of $290 offered in Nebraska, but feedlots let it grow cold as that's below their asking price. Southern feedlots are asking $181 to $182, and Northern feedlots are asking $292 to $294. The cash cattle market will likely see better interest come Thursday especially, because last week's trade was relatively light. October live cattle closed $1.42 lower at $180.05, December live cattle closed $1.65 lower at $184.22 and February live cattle closed $1.42 lower at $188.35. 

Wednesday's slaughter is estimated at 125,000 head, 7,000 head more than a week ago and 2,000 head less than a year ago.

Boxed beef prices closed mixed: choice up $0.75 ($315.11) and select down $0.15 ($289.53) with a movement of 107 loads (69.98 loads of choice, 24.52 loads of select, zero loads of trim and 12.69 loads of ground beef).

THURSDAY'S CATTLE CALL: Steady. With packers unable to get many cattle bought last week and very few committed with time, it's likely that they have to support this week's market more than they'd like, which could keep prices steady.

FEEDER CATTLE:

Try as it might, the feeder cattle complex ran out of steam Wednesday afternoon as traders continue to look for more fundamental support before they'll confidently advance the contracts again. The live cattle/cash cattle markets didn't lend much support either as the live cattle contracts closed lower and as still no substantial cash cattle trade has developed. Corn prices continue to trade lower, but at this point, traders need motivating support, not just reassurance from the grain sector. September feeders closed $1.40 lower at $252.62, October feeders closed $1.52 lower at $255.22 and November feeders closed $1.40 lower at $256.72. At Winter Livestock Auction in Dodge City, Kansas, compared to last week, feeder steers weighing 700 to 850 pounds sold unevenly steady. There weren't enough steer calves weighing 450 to 700 pounds to establish a true market test, but higher tones were noted. Slaughter cows sold $3.00 to $4.00 higher and slaughter bulls sold steady. Feeder cattle supply over 600 pounds was 71%. The CME Feeder Cattle Index for Aug. 29: up $0.03, $249.15.

LEAN HOGS:

Traders took a bold move in Wednesday's market and ran the lean hog contracts higher despite fundamental support being questionable. October lean hogs closed $2.87 higher at $83.60, December lean hogs closed $2.27 higher at $75.10 and February lean hogs closed $2.10 higher at $79.10. Come Thursday, the market will again be pressured to either support Wednesday's move or bow down below $82.00. Pork cutout values are unavailable due to packer submission issues. Wednesday's slaughter is estimated at 468,000 head, 4,000 head more than a week ago and 10,000 head less than a year ago. The CME Lean Hog Index for Aug. 28: down $1.48, $92.41.

THURSDAY'S HOG CALL: Steady. Packers have been committed to keeping cash prices steady to somewhat lower, and at this point, it's likely that the trend continues through the week.

Wednesday Midday Livestock Market Summary - Traders Kick Back and Wait for Fundamental Support

GENERAL COMMENTS:

Thus far, it's been a mostly uneventful day for the livestock complex as traders are hanging back, waiting to see what develops fundamentally at this point before they do much more throughout the futures complex. A single bid of $290 has been offered in Nebraska, but no feedlots have jumped at its showing. December corn is down 4 cents per bushel and December soybean meal is down $3.70. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 49.27 points.

LIVE CATTLE:

The live cattle complex is still trading mildly lower as traders patiently wait to see if anything eventful develops in Wednesday's cash cattle market. It is encouraging to note that midday boxed beef prices are mixed as opposed to fully lower as packers need to continue to see adequate beef demand if they're going to continue to stay active in the cash market and keep chain speeds running where they are. A single bid of $290 is currently being offered in Nebraska, but no cattle have yet to trade. Asking prices in the South are noted at $181 to $182, and in the North at $292 to $294 dressed. October live cattle are down $0.55 at $180.92, December live cattle are down $1.10 at $184.77 and February live cattle are down $0.97 at $188.80.

Boxed beef prices are mixed: choice up $1.25 ($315.61) and select down $0.14 ($289.54) with a movement of 61 loads (37.11 loads of choice, 16.34 loads of select, zero loads of trim and 7.84 loads of ground beef).

FEEDER CATTLE:

After two days earlier this week of stronger, higher trade, the feeder cattle complex is now trading lower as traders patiently look for followed through fundamental support, especially from the cash cattle market. Yes, corn prices are still trending lower, which is boding well for feeders, but traders are wanting to see something come to fruition fundamentally this week in order to justify continuing to trade the complex at these price points. September feeders are down $1.17 at $252.85, October feeders are down $1.07 at $255.67 and November feeders are down $0.92 at $0.95 at $257.22.

LEAN HOGS:

The lean hog complex has had a change of heart as, Tuesday, the nearby contracts were pressured, but thus far throughout Wednesday's trade, the nearby contracts are trading higher while the market's deferred contracts now drift lower. October lean hogs are up $0.60 at $81.32, December lean hogs are up $0.22 at $73.05 and February lean hogs are up $0.20 at $77.17. The market's lower close Tuesday afternoon did allow for the spot October contract to back away from the resistance at $82.00, but its yet to be seen if Wednesday's complex will lend enough support to surpass that threshold.

The projected lean hog index for Aug. 29 is down $1.74 at $90.67, and the actual index for Aug. 28 is down $1.48 at $92.41. Hog prices on the Daily Direct Morning Hog Report average $80.49, ranging from $78.00 to $84.00 on 5,676 head with a five-day rolling average of $83.23. Pork cutouts total 180.78 loads with 142.94 loads of pork cuts and 37.84 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: down $0.26, $92.59.

US Cattlemen’s Association Welcomes LIP Update

The U.S. Cattlemen's Association applauds recent action by the Department of Agriculture to update the 2023 Livestock Indemnity Program payment rate. Late last week, USDA announced the payment rate for beef calves over 800 pounds will increase from $1244 per head to $1618, an increase of $374. The payment will apply retroactively to all qualifying losses since January 1, 2023. No action is necessary for retroactive payments, and producers will receive an additional payment if applicable. Payments will be queued up for current losses as early as next week. FSA acknowledged that some animals might have lost weight due to extreme weather conditions, and they are working on how to handle those cases. USCA President Justin Tupper says, "A loss in today's market has a significantly higher impact on a producer's bottom line, and the updated indemnity better reflects the value of that animal," while giving thanks to FSA for the update.

Wednesday Morning Livestock Market Update - Hogs Face Significant Headwinds

GENERAL COMMENTS:

Traders are uncertain which direction cattle prices will move this week. The general thinking is cash will be steady, but packers may hold the line following their success over the past few weeks of lower cash. The upcoming holiday and the recent weakness of boxed beef may give them the upper hand. Boxed beef was lower with choice down $2.68 and select down $2.41. Hot weather returns in the Midwest and Plains this weekend into next week which will impact cattle performance. It could also have an impact on corn and soybeans filling out, which could increase feed prices. Cash cattle are not expected to trade Wednesday.

Hog futures diverged with closer months seeing pressure while later months were moderately higher. Closer months reacted to lower cash and cutouts as Tuesday progressed. Cutouts have been under substantial pressure since Friday with a minor gain on Monday. Cutouts Tuesday fell $3.20 with another large decline in bellies. The National Direct Afternoon Hog report showed cash falling $5.51 to a weighted average of $81.41 and near where the October futures contract is currently trading. Cash and futures have come together quickly over the past few weeks with the weakness of cash narrowing the large price gap the market had contained. Higher cash may be difficult to see this week and next week will see reduced slaughter due to a holiday-shortened week.

	BULL SIDE		BEAR SIDE
1)	Feeder cattle are poised to make a run at new contract highs as demand at auctions remains strong with higher prices.	1)	Traders are reluctant to anticipate higher cash cattle this week and may let futures drift lower until cash trading takes place.
2)	Showlists are current, which may result in cash trading no less than steady this week. This would provide support to live cattle futures.	2)	Packers may not need to be aggressive this week due to the holiday-shortened week coming up. Feedlots may decide not to hold cattle another week for potentially no benefit.
3)	The sharp decline of bellies over the past few days should improve demand and provide support to cutouts.	3)	The sharp decline of cash and cutouts Tuesday may keep pressure on the hog market Wednesday.
4)	Hog futures have developed a sideways trading pattern recently which may be building technical support. Fundamental support needs to surface to solidify that support.	4)	Packers will be less aggressive this week due to the holiday-shortened week. This may keep pressure on futures as hog supplies remain readily available.

Tuesday Closing Livestock Market Update - Traders Mildly Supported Complex

GENERAL COMMENTS:

It was a mostly supportive day for the cattle complex as most of the contracts rounded out the day on a higher note. The nearby lean hog contracts struggled but the deferred contracts were able to close mildly higher. Hog prices closed $5.51 lower on the Daily Direct Afternoon Hog Report, equating to a weighted average of $81.41 on 3,119 head. December corn is down 9 1/2 cents per bushel and December soybean meal is down $6.90. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 270.85 points.

LIVE CATTLE:

The live cattle complex completed another day with the contracts mostly able to say that they closed higher. The market was slow and lackluster throughout the day as traders patiently wait to see what develops in the cash market and hope to see boxed beef prices improve later this week. October live cattle closed $0.07 lower at $181.47, December live cattle closed $0.22 higher at $185.87 and February live cattle closed $0.17 lower at $189.77. Still no bids nor asking prices are available and, while the market could see asking prices listed Wednesday, it's likely that business is delayed until Thursday or Friday. 

Tuesday's slaughter is estimated at 125,000 head, 1,000 head more than a week ago and 2,000 head more than a year ago.

Boxed beef prices closed lower: choice down $2.68 ($314.36) and select down $2.41 ($289.68) with a movement of 107 loads (58.13 loads of choice, 19.79 loads of select, 16.22 loads of trim and 12.62 loads of ground beef).

WEDNESDAY'S CATTLE CALL: Steady. Given that showlists are current and that packers didn't get a plethora of cattle bought last week, it's likely that prices remain at least steady this week.

FEEDER CATTLE:

Traders were running through Tuesday's market modestly supporting the feeder cattle complex even though prices soared through Monday's end. It helped that corn prices continued to trade lower throughout the day, and just the spot September and October 2023 contracts closed lower while the rest of the market added mildly to Monday's close. Buyer interest has been strong this week throughout the countryside, which is encouraging to traders after they made such an aggressive move early in the week. As trade continues throughout the week, the feeder cattle complex will continue to monitor corn prices and hopes to see at least steady trade in the cash cattle market. September feeders closed $0.25 lower at $254.02, October feeders closed $0.27 lower at $256.75 and November feeders closed $0.07 higher at $258.12. At Joplin Regional Stockyards in Carthage, Missouri compared to last week feeder steers under 625 pounds sold $13.00 to $20.00 higher with heavier weights selling steady to $3.00 higher. Feeder heifers sold $8.00 to $16.00 higher. The auction report noted that the heat index on sale was 25 degrees lower, which helped drive the market. Feeder cattle supply over 600 pounds was 55%. The CME Feeder Cattle Index for Aug. 28: up $1.29, $249.12.

LEAN HOGS:

The lean hog complex didn't see much improvement throughout Tuesday's afternoon as the nearby contracts remained weaker while the deferred contracts were able to close slightly higher. Trader would have liked to pressure the resistance in the spot October contract at $82.00, but with both cash prices and pork cutout values closing lower, the fundamental support necessary to break past that threshold didn't solidify throughout Tuesday's hours. It's likely that the afternoon's carcass price would have closed higher if it weren't for the $26.50 drop in the belly Tuesday afternoon. The belly continues to be an extremely volatile cut and unfortunately, that's not likely to change in the near futures. October lean hogs closed $1.12 lower at $80.72, December lean hogs closed $0.60 lower at $72.82 and February lean hogs closed $0.45 lower at $77.00.

Pork cutouts totaled 306.83 loads with 272.28 loads of pork cuts and 34.56 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: down $3.20, $92.85. Tuesday's slaughter is estimated at 470,000 head, 6,000 head less than a week ago and 10,000 head less than a year ago. The CME Lean Hog Index for Aug. 25: down $1.29, $93.89.

WEDNESDAY'S HOG CALL: Steady. Packers will likely need to accumulate more hogs at some point this week, but I doubt that they do so in a manner that drives cash prices much higher.

Tuesday Midday Livestock Market Summary - Cattle Continue to Grind Higher

GENERAL COMMENTS:

Again today the livestock complex is trading mostly higher with only the nearby lean hog contracts slightly struggling. Traders seem committed at this point to supporting the cattle market's long-term bullish outlook as they continue to push both the live cattle and feeder cattle contracts higher. December corn is down 2 1/2 cents per bushel and December soybean meal is down $5.50. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 233.34 points.

LIVE CATTLE:

The live cattle complex continues to thrive and trade modestly higher as traders are committed to supporting the market's long-term bullish outlook. Even though midday boxed beef prices are lower, and Monday's afternoon report showcased lower prices as well, traders don't seem shaken by that news. It's likely that some pressure could loom over the boxed beef market until Fall arrives and early holiday buying begins. October live cattle are up $0.35 at $181.90, December live cattle are up $0.47 at $186.12 and February live cattle are up $0.12 at $190.07. As usual, there's been no cash cattle trade reported yet and bids and asking prices aren't likely to show up until Wednesday with trade potentially being delayed until Thursday or Friday.

Boxed beef prices are lower: choice down $1.71 ($315.33) and select down $1.90 ($290.19) with a movement of 63 loads (31.35 loads of choice, 10.17 loads of select, 13.11 loads of trim and 8.45 loads of ground beef).

FEEDER CATTLE:

The feeder cattle complex isn't trading as spunky as it was through Monday's trade, but the complex is still trading mildly higher which is impressive given that Monday's gains were so substantial. September feeders cattle are up $0.22 at $254.50, October feeders are up $0.25 at $257.27 and November feeders are up $0.62 at $258.67. With corn prices continuing to trade lower and with good buyer action in Monday's feeder cattle sales in the countryside, the feeder cattle contracts may keep their sideways/somewhat higher tone through the day's end.

LEAN HOGS:

The lean hog complex is higher as traders have an opportunity to support the market and not be in immediate danger of coming up against resistance pressure. October lean hogs are up $1.55 at $81.37, December lean hogs are up $1.10 at $73.12 and February lean hogs are up $0.80 at $77.17. Yes, pork cutout values are higher Monday morning, but after last Friday, with the belly dropping nearly $60.00, it would be even more concerning if prices were lower.

The projected lean hog index for Aug. 25 is down $1.29 at $93.89, and the actual index for Aug. 24 is down $1.22 at $95.18. Hog prices are unavailable at this time on the Daily Direct Morning Hog Report due to packer submission issues. Pork cutouts total 137.31 loads with 113.40 loads of pork cuts and 23.91 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: up $4.06, $97.48.

Tuesday Morning Livestock Market Update - Further Strength Expected in Futures

GENERAL COMMENTS:

Feeder cattle futures pushed easily to new contract highs in September and later contracts. August will cease trading on Thursday as the contract goes off the board. There will likely be follow-through buying as new contract highs might bring in further technical buying interest. With continued strong interest in the country for feeder cattle and higher prices at auctions, traders were confident higher prices were necessary Monday. Live cattle were moderately higher, pulled along by the strength of feeders but remaining cautious over the strength of cash this week. Boxed beef prices slipped Monday with choice down $0.86 and select down $0.58. Packers will purchase cattle this week, but not aggressively due to the Labor Day holiday next week. FSA announced it is updating the Livestock Indemnity Program (LIP)payment rate to producers that have lost cattle during the extreme heat this summer. The payment rate for beef calves over 800 pounds will increase from $1,244 per head to $1,618 per head.

Hog futures overcame the bearishness of cash and cutouts on Friday to move to triple-digit gains Monday. Contracts bounced from technical support, nearly eliminating the losses of last week. October outpaced the rest of the complex as traders saw packers paying higher prices to begin the week. The National Direct Afternoon Hog report showed cash increasing $2.30. Packers want to purchase early this week and should be aggressive Tuesday as well. Cutouts took back some of Friday's large loss, posting a gain of $2.63.

	BULL SIDE		BEAR SIDE
1)	Feeder cattle made new contract highs, increasing the interest of technical traders. This should result in further follow-through buying.	1)	Cash cattle showed weakness the past few weeks with the anticipation cash will be no better than steady this week. Feedlots may move cattle they have been holding the past few weeks.
2)	Deferred live cattle contracts are seeing more strength as cattle numbers are expected to remain tight through much of next year.	2)	Live cattle remain in a range it may be difficult to move above unless packers increase slaughter pace, which is unlikely anytime soon.
3)	Packers needed hogs and are willing to purchase early in the week, which should provide higher prices again Tuesday.	3)	The rebound of hog futures seemed to be technical in nature rather than fundamental as contracts bounced from support. Further strength may be difficult to achieve due to price uncertainty.
4)	Higher cutout values are expected again Tuesday as the large decline on Friday likely should have never happened. Slaughter remains strong as packers need to satisfy demand.	4)	Packers have sufficient hogs to fill slaughter needs and meet demand. This may limit their aggressiveness in the cash market.

Monday Closing Livestock Market Update - Feeder Cattle Jump $2.00 to $3.00 Higher

GENERAL COMMENTS:

It was a strong Monday for the livestock complex as all three of the markets were able to close higher, but it was the feeder cattle complex that saw the biggest gains. Hog prices closed higher on the Daily Direct Afternoon Hog Report, up $2.30 with a weighted average price of $86.92 on 1,771 head. December corn is up 8 1/4 cents per bushel and December soybean meal is up $3.80. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 213.08 points.

LIVE CATTLE:

The live cattle complex may not have been as aggressive as the feeder cattle complex was, but it still managed to close higher, which sure beats the alternative. October live cattle closed $0.37 higher at $181.55, December live cattle closed $0.52 higher at $185.65 and February live cattle closed $0.75 higher at $189.95. Beef prices were marked lower throughout the day, but given that it's only Monday, that doesn't mean too much at this point. Traders will, however, keep an eye on boxed prices moving forward as that could affect packers' aggressiveness not only in the cash market but also in terms of processing speeds. Monday's slaughter is estimated at 125,000 head, 3,000 head more than a week ago and 2,000 head more than a year ago. New showlists appear to be mixed, higher in Nebraska/Colorado, but lower in Kansas and Texas.

Last week, Northern cattle began to trade on Thursday, but the majority of the week's trade happened on Friday at $290 to $295, mostly at $292, which is roughly $3.00 lower than the previous week's weighted average. Southern live cattle didn't trade until Friday afternoon and their sales were marked at $178 to mostly $179, which is considered fully steady with the week before. Last week's negotiated cash cattle traded totaled 68,899 head. Of that, 83% (57,184 head) were committed for the nearby delivery, while the remaining 17% (11,715 head) were committed for the deferred delivery.

Boxed beef prices closed lower: choice down $0.86 ($317.04) and select down $0.58 ($292.09) with a movement of 92 loads (45.31 loads of choice, 27.98 loads of select, 5.19 loads of trim and 13.81 loads of ground beef).

TUESDAY'S CATTLE CALL: Steady. Packers weren't able to get a plethora of cattle bought last week, which likely means that they'll need to buy modestly this week, and that should keep prices at least steady.

FEEDER CATTLE:

While looking at the nearby corn contracts that closed $0.07 to $0.08 higher, the feeder cattle market charged through Monday's close and scored new life of the contract highs in most of the nearby contracts. The knowingness that cattle supplies are going to remain thin well through the end of the year seems to be resonating more and more with traders, as they continue to come to terms with the strong fundamental outlook of the market. September feeders closed $3.07 higher at $254.27, October feeders closed $3.05 higher at $257.02 and November feeders closed $2.65 higher at $258.05. At Oklahoma National Stockyards in Oklahoma City, Oklahoma, compared to last week and at their midsession point, feeder steers were trading $1.00 higher but steers weighing 600 to 700 pounds were trading $4.00 higher and feeder heifers sold mostly $1.00 to $3.00 stronger. Steer and heifer calves were only lightly tested but instances of $10.00 higher was seen on some offerings. Feeder cattle supply over 600 pounds was 56%. The CME Feeder Cattle Index for Aug. 25: $2.24, $247.83.

LEAN HOGS:

The lean hog complex was able to close higher along with the cattle complex as traders have plenty of room to trade higher technically before running into resistance and as a higher close in both cash prices and pork cutout values was a welcomed surprise for the market. October lean hogs closed $2.02 higher at $81.85, December lean hogs closed $1.40 higher at $73.42 and February lean hogs closed $1.07 higher at $77.45. Pork cutout values were extremely volatile last week, and Monday afternoon's higher close was much needed, but traders will continue to monitor pork demand closely. Pork cutouts totaled 264.25 loads with 233.06 loads of pork cuts and 41.19 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: up $2.63, $96.05. Monday's slaughter is estimated at 476,000 head, 5,000 head more than a week ago and 6,000 head less than a year ago. Friday's hog slaughter was revised to 463,000 head, pushing the week's total slaughter to 2,495,000 head. The CME Lean Hog Index for Aug. 24: down $1.22, $95.18.

TUESDAY'S HOG CALL: Steady to somewhat higher. Given that packers were wiling to jump into the market and buy hogs on Monday to the point where prices printed higher, it's likely that they need some more hogs and that prices could be higher on Tuesday as well.

Monday Midday Livestock Market Summary - Traders Send Contracts Higher

GENERAL COMMENTS:

The livestock complex is being supported Monday morning as all three of the markets are trading higher. No cash cattle business has developed yet and it's likely that any will ahead of Wednesday or even potentially Thursday. December corn is up 7 1/4 cents per bushel and December soybean meal is up $1.30. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 141.07 points.

LIVE CATTLE:

The live cattle complex is continuing to trade higher and is now on the verge of trading above $182, which has been a short-term resistance plane for the spot October contract. In the last week, traders have really seemed to find comfort in the strong fundamental position of the live cattle/cash cattle market. Traders know that fed cattle supplies are going be thin moving into the last two quarters of the year and, so long as beef demand doesn't plummet, strong cash cattle prices should be the theme of the marketplace. October live cattle are up $0.55 at $181.72, December live cattle are up $0.32 at $185.45 and February live cattle are up $0.45 at $189.65.

Last week, Northern cattle began to trade on Thursday, but the majority of the week's trade happened on Friday at $290 to $295, mostly at $292, which is roughly $3.00 lower than the previous week's weighted average. Southern live cattle didn't trade until Friday afternoon and their sales were marked at $178 to mostly $179, which is considered fully steady with the week before.

Boxed beef prices are lower: choice down $1.18 ($316.72) and select down $0.23 ($292.44) with a movement of 55 loads (21.61 loads of choice, 17.08 loads of select, 5.19 loads of trim and 10.62 loads of ground beef).

FEEDER CATTLE:

Up, up and away go the feeder cattle contracts into Monday's noon hour, as the nearby contracts are seeing easy $2.00 gains while the deferred contracts are trading at least $1.00 higher. Monday's move is rather impressive given the fact that the live cattle complex is only trading mildly higher and that the nearby corn contracts are trading $0.06 higher. Nevertheless, traders are electing to run the contracts higher into Monday's noon hour, and I can't help but believe that the scarcity of calves to be offered later this fall, amid excellent cash cattle prices, is fueling their drive. September feeders are up $2.22 at $253.57, October feeders are up $2.27 at $256.25 and November feeders are up $1.95 at $257.35.

LEAN HOGS:

The lean hog complex is higher as traders have an opportunity to support the market and not be in immediate danger of coming up against resistance pressure. October lean hogs are up $1.55 at $81.37, December lean hogs are up $1.10 at $73.12 and February lean hogs are up $0.80 at $77.17. Yes, pork cutout values are higher Monday morning, but after last Friday, with the belly dropping nearly $60.00, it would be even more concerning if prices were lower.

The projected lean hog index for Aug. 25 is down $1.29 at $93.89, and the actual index for Aug. 24 is down $1.22 at $95.18. Hog prices are unavailable at this time on the Daily Direct Morning Hog Report due to packer submission issues. Pork cutouts total 137.31 loads with 113.40 loads of pork cuts and 23.91 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: up $4.06, $97.48.

Monday Morning Livestock Market Update - Futures Eye Holiday Next Week

GENERAL COMMENTS:

Cash cattle ended the week steady to lower, but better than some had anticipated. Northern cattle traded $1.00 lower Friday, which was a bit better than earlier trade during the week. Southern cattle were about steady with the previous week. The fact that cash is not improving despite boxed beef showing strength indicates packers are playing their cards right and slower slaughter is improving margins. A seasonal decline of boxed beef after Labor Day may provide some headwind to the market. Packers may exercise patience again this week as they are purchasing ahead for the holiday-shortened week next week. Boxed beef was higher Friday with choice up $0.27 and select up $0.76. The Commitment of Traders report showed funds reduced their long futures positions by 7,377 contracts, bringing their net-long positions to 90,394 contracts. Feeder cattle showed funds reducing their long positions by 1,283 contracts, bringing their net-long positions to 11,888 contracts.

Hog futures struggled through Friday, closing mixed but well off their highs. October was under pressure as cash continued to fall. The National Direct Afternoon report showed cash down $3.03 to close out a negative week. Traders had hopes that a repeat of last week would again unfold with short-covering into the weekend. However, the incredible weakness of cutouts turned up the pressure on futures with contracts closing around $2.00 off their highs. Cutouts lost an incredible $11.50 with a huge $58.48 decline in bellies. I cannot remember ever seeing pressure of this magnitude or at least it has been a long time. Fundamental support remains elusive. The Commitment of Traders report showed hogs reducing their long positions by 1,646 contracts, bringing their net-long positions to 22,502 futures contracts.

	BULL SIDE		BEAR SIDE
1)	Boxed beef continues to improve, which is also improving packer margins, allowing them to be more willing to pay for cattle and reducing the recent weakness of cash.	1)	A slower slaughter pace is improving packer margins, which will keep them working the market lower to maintain that direction. The holiday next week may leave them less aggressive.
2)	Feeder cattle futures are holding in a sideways trading pattern and are poised to move higher as numbers remain tight.	2)	Boxed beef prices seasonally decline after Labor Day, which will be a factor for both demand and the willingness of packers to purchase.
3)	Cutouts and cash have been weakening, yet hog futures have been holding remarkable well.	3)	The large decline of cutouts and lower cash Friday are expected to pressure the market Monday.
4)	Lower pork prices should improve demand, which should cause packers to be more aggressive in their purchasing. After the weakness of last week, packers could be more aggressive with their purchases earlier this week.	4)	Packers may not need to be aggressive this week as next week will be a holiday-shortened week.

Friday Closing Livestock Market Update - Traders Support Contracts

GENERAL COMMENTS:

The livestock complex was well supported through the week's end, as all three markets rounded out the week mostly higher. Some cash cattle trade was reported shortly after the noon hour Friday, and the feedlots that elected to wait until late in the week to sell were rewarded with better prices than those who sold early. Hog prices closed lower on the Daily Direct Afternoon Hog Report, down $3.03 with a weighted average price of $84.62 on 2,129 head. December corn is down 1/4 cent per bushel and December soybean meal is up $2.70. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 247.54 points.

From Friday to Friday, livestock futures scored the following changes: august live cattle up $2.15, October live cattle up $2.35; August feeder cattle up $2.05, September feeder cattle up $2.68; October lean hogs down $2.30, December lean hogs down $2.47; September corn down $0.09, December corn down $0.05.

LIVE CATTLE:

Traders weren't sleeping on the job when it came to Friday's market as the live cattle contracts closed higher and again reassured the marketplace that even traders are aware of the complex's long-term supportive outlook. The fact that traders tested current support planes midweek and elected to push prices higher even though cash cattle traded $1.00 to $3.00 lower is extremely supportive. October live cattle closed $0.45 higher a $181.17, December live cattle closed $0.60 higher at $185.12 and February live cattle closed $0.60 higher at $189.20. A light trade has been reported in the South at mostly $179, which is generally steady with last week's weighted average. A few more Northern cattle have traded at $185, which is $1.00 lower than last week's weighted average. The cattle that sold on Thursday in the North traded at mostly $292 which is $3.00 lower than last week's weighted average. 

Friday's slaughter is estimated at 122,000 head, 4,000 head more than a week ago and 1,000 head less than a year ago. Saturday's slaughter is projected to be around 16,000 head. The week's estimated slaughter amounts to 626,000 head, 10,000 head more than a week ago and 52,000 head less than a year ago.

Boxed beef prices closed higher: choice up $0.27 ($317.90) and select up $0.76 ($292.67) with a movement of 79 loads (61.07 loads of choice, 10.59 loads of select, zero loads of trim and 7.66 loads of ground beef). Throughout the week, choice cuts averaged $317.04 (up $6.63 from last week's weighted average) and select cuts averaged $290.60 (up $6.03 from last week's weighted average) with a total movement of cuts, grinds and trim of 451 loads.

MONDAY'S CATTLE CALL: Steady. Packers are going to continue to try to work the market lower, but as we were again shown this past week, feedlots aren't going to hand them over cattle unless they pay close to what their asking prices are.

FEEDER CATTLE:

The feeder cattle complex had another stellar day as the market continues to thrive on the strength seeping over from the live cattle complex, and from the fact that corn prices are remaining stable and that buyer demand in the countryside is holding strong, even if higher temperatures were seen in most of the country this past week. September feeders closed $0.45 higher at $251.20, October feeders closed $0.72 higher at $253.97 and November feeders closed $1.05 higher at $255.40. So long as the live cattle market keeps its momentum, the feeder cattle complex should be able to maintain its strong position as feeder cattle supplies are only going to grow thinner as the year goes on. The Oklahoma Weekly Cattle Auction Summary shared that, throughout the entire state and when compared to a week ago, feeder steers traded steady to $3.00 lower and feeder heifers traded $2.00 to $3.00 lower. Steer calves sold $2.00 to $4.00 lower and heifer calves traded $8.00 to $10.00 lower, expect those weighing 500 to 600 pounds which sold steady. High temperatures were largely to blame for this week's softness as much of the state had temperatures topping over 100 degrees. Slaughter cows and bulls sold steady to $1.00 lower. Feeder cattle supply over 600 pounds was 59%. The CME Feeder Cattle Index for Aug. 25: up $0.45, $245.59.

LEAN HOGS:

All in all, the lean hog complex had another strong performing day throughout the futures complex, even though the spot October contract closed lower. I think the biggest reason why the October contract came under pressure ahead of closing was because traders aren't seeing the fundamental support necessary to break beyond current resistance levels. And, Friday's afternoon pork cutout report is just another example of the volatility that's currently laced throughout the hog and pork markets as the carcass value fell $11.50 lower because of the $58.48 drop in the belly. October lean hogs closed $0.65 lower at $79.82, December lean hogs closed $0.12 higher at $72.02 and February lean hogs closed $0.42 higher at $76.37. Pork cutouts total 317.82 loads with 277.73 loads of pork cuts and 40.09 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: down $11.50, $93.42. Friday's slaughter is estimated at 468,000 head, 1,000 head less than a week ago and 21,000 head more than a year ago. Saturday's slaughter is projected to be around 156,000 head. Thursday's slaughter was revised to 465,000 head. The CME Lean Hog Index for Aug. 23: down $0.97, $96.40.

MONDAY'S HOG CALL: Lower. Packers never really show much interest in the cash hog market on Monday, and with the sharp decline in cutout values, they'll likely remain cautious buyers early in the week.

Friday Midday Livestock Market Summary - Feedlots Continue to Hold Out

GENERAL COMMENTS:

The livestock complex is trading higher into Friday's noon hour as corn prices continue to trend mostly steady. No new cash cattle trade has been reported but more trade will likely develop later this afternoon. December corn is up 3/4 cent per bushel and December soybean meal is up $2.20. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 176.55 points.

LIVE CATTLE:

Seeing the continued support traders are throwing at the live cattle market is invigorating as traders seem to be looking beyond the technical pressure endured last week and instead fixating their attention on the market's strong long-term fundamentals. Still, no new cash cattle trade has been reported as feedlots simply refuse to puke cattle to packers. Packers would love nothing more than to be able to work the cash cattle complex $5.00 lower on a weekly basis over the next month or so, but feedlots are making that wish seem somewhat far-fetched at this point. Bids of $185 live and $292 dressed are currently being offered in Nebraska, but the market is still dead silent in the South. Asking prices in the South are noted at $180 to $182, and in the North at $294 plus. It's going to be a waiting game to see who wins this week's war. Will packers up their bids to ensure they get cattle bought? Or will feedlot managers let some cattle trade just to ensure their showlists don't become burdensome? Or last, but certainly not lacking any excitement, will this week's market be thinly traded and both parties saddle up nearly next week for a continued cage fight? Time will tell friends, don't go anywhere too soon.

A light to moderate trade was reported in the North Thursday afternoon at $292 dressed which is $3.00 lower than last week's weighted average. October live cattle are up $0.20 at $180.90, December live cattle are up $0.25 at $184.77 and February live cattle are up $0.27 at $188.87.

Boxed beef prices are higher: choice up $0.20 ($317.83) and select up $0.24 ($292.15) with a movement of 62 loads (50.60 loads of choice, 7.40 loads of select, zero loads of trim and 4.42 loads of ground beef).

FEEDER CATTLE:

The feeder cattle complex is loving the support that's trickling into its market as traders note the continued support currently being seen in the live cattle complex, and in mostly steady corn prices. September feeders are down $0.02 at $250.72, October feeders are up $0.17 at $253.45 and November feeders are up $0.45 at $254.80. It's encouraging to see traders willing to support the feeder cattle late in the week as temperatures have been hot this week and cash cattle prices showing slightly weaker tones. But even so, the continued support of aggressive feeder cattle buying in the countryside cannot be overlooked nor downplayed as buyers are continuing to shell out money for both feeders and calves as they know supplies are only going to grow increasingly thin the later we get into 2023.

LEAN HOGS:

The lean hog complex is back to rallying as traders see the steady trade in corn prices as an opportunity on which they need to capitalize. October lean hogs are up $1.70 at $82.17, December lean hogs are up $2.00 at $73.90 and February lean hogs are up $2.00 at $77.95. The spot October contract is flirting with closing above the market's nearby resistance at $82.00, but it wouldn't be surprising to see traders round out Friday's close right below that threshold and look for support nearly next week to decide if that's a good decision or not. At this point technically there's enough support in the market for traders to push the contract above that level, but fundamentally speaking, support is lacking.

The projected lean hog index for 8/24/2023 is down $1.22 at $95.18, and the actual index for 8/23/2023 is down $0.90 at $96.40. Hog prices are lower on the Daily Direct Morning Hog Report, down $3.25 with a weighted average price of $84.60, ranging from $81.00 to $87.00 on 1,458 head and a five-day rolling average of $88.11. Pork cutouts are unavailable as the USDA seems to be experiencing technical issues.

Friday Morning Livestock Market Update - Cattle Trade Pushed to the End of the Week

GENERAL COMMENTS:

Live cattle futures struggled for a time, but traders found the wherewithal to buy aggressively into the market. It is possible traders are already looking past this week in anticipation cash will need to improve due to continued strength of boxed beef. Packers will not be able to reduce slaughter indefinitely if demand improves. Feedlots hope packers will become more aggressive due to improved margins. Boxed beef was again higher with choice up $0.58 and select up $0.32. Some cattle traded yesterday in Nebraska and Iowa about $2.00 to $3.00 lower than last week. No other trade has been done with the activity today likely following the lead so far. Weekly exports sales were 25% lower than the previous week totaling 11,400 mt. Feeder cattle found support as traders kept pace with live cattle and likely covered some short positions that had profit ahead of the weekend. Traders are likely trading for the short-term scalping the market due to it moving in a sideways pattern.

Hogs may be following a similar pattern to last week with short covering ahead of the weekend. If so, further strength should be seen today. This is likely due to very strong cutouts yesterday posting a gain of $4.13. The only category of cutouts showing a decline yesterday was ribs with a decline of $2.48. The National Direct Afternoon Hog report showed further weakness of cash with a decrease of $0.77. Packers are not expected to be aggressive today, but cash could trade slightly higher. Weekly export sales increased 15% from the previous week, totaling 33,000 mt. Saturday slaughter is estimated at 140,000 head.

	BULL SIDE		BEAR SIDE
1)	Cattle futures rebounded from technical support keeping the market in its recent sideways trend. Lower cash is already factored into the market.	1)	Cash cattle seem to be in a slow grind lower. Feedlots need to move some cattle as they will not hold onto them if it does not net any benefits.
2)	The cattle complex continues to be supported by tighter cattle numbers which should limit downside price potential through the end of the year.	2)	Average steer weights increased to 901 pounds, which is an increase of 6 pounds from the previous week and steady with last year. Cattle are not being pulled ahead as much as they had been, which is increasing tonnage.
3)	The sharp increase of pork cutouts is hopefully an indication of better demand surfacing. Prices have been beaten down sufficiently to increase consumer buying interest.	3)	The technical increase of hog futures may be difficult to retain if cash and cutouts remain weak.
4)	Good export sales may indicate international demand may increase due to attractive pork prices.	4)	Hog weights increased 1.l pounds to an average of 278.3 pounds this week. This is 1.8 pounds higher than a year ago.

Thursday Closing Livestock Market Update - Traders Support Contracts Through Closing

GENERAL COMMENTS:

All in all, it was a winning day for the livestock complex as traders supported the contracts and all three livestock markets were able to close higher Thursday. Cash cattle prices were tested in the North and prices were lower there, but that didn't have a negative effect on the futures complex. Hog prices are unavailable on the Daily Direct Afternoon Hog Report due to packer submission issues. December corn is down 2 1/4 cents per bushel and December soybean meal is up $11.30. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 252.39 points.

LIVE CATTLE:

Temperatures may be sweltering, and feedlot managers are praying that the weather breaks soon, but that didn't have a negative effect on the live cattle contracts in Thursday's trade. Traders supported the live cattle contracts throughout Thursday, which not only stands as a victory for the day, as cash cattle prices were pushed slightly lower, but also for the market's overall morale as traders seem to be establishing a bottom in the market's current trading range. October live cattle closed $2.05 higher at $180.72, December live cattle closed $1.60 higher at $184.52 and February live cattle closed $1.40 higher at $188.60. A light trade was reported throughout the day in Nebraska at $292, which is $3.00 lower than last week's weighted average. Asking prices in the South remain firm at $180 to $182 and $294 plus in the North. It's looking like trade will be slightly softer in terms of prices this week, but feedlots have done a tremendous job at only letting packers take a little here and there out of the market as opposed to hard $5.00 cuts each and every week. 

Thursday's slaughter is estimated at 124,000 head, 2,000 head more than a week ago and steady with a year ago.

Thursday's actual slaughter data shared that, for the week ending Aug. 12, steers averaged 901 pounds, which is 6 pounds more than a week ago but steady with a year ago. During the same week, heifers averaged 820 pounds, which is 9 pounds more than the previous week but still 2 pounds less than a year ago.

Beef net sales of 11,400 mt for 2023 were down 25% from the previous week and 28% from the prior four-week average. The three primary buyers were South Korea (4,200 mt), Japan (2,300 mt) and Hong Kong (1,300 mt).

Boxed beef prices closed higher: choice up $0.58 ($317.63) and select up $0.32 ($291.91) with a movement of 102 loads (60.81 loads of choice, 23.24 loads of select, 3.75 loads of trim and 14.62 loads of ground beef).

FRIDAY'S CATTLE CALL: $1.00 to $2.00 lower. Given that packers have been able to get some cattle bought out of the North for cheaper prices, the trend this week will likely be softer.

FEEDER CATTLE:

The feeder cattle complex was quick to rally in Thursday's market as traders showed up ready to play Thursday, and the combination of cheaper corn prices amid a higher trading live cattle complex was just enough to send prices $1.00 to $2.00 higher through closing. September feeders closed $2.17 higher at $250.75, October feeders closed $2.37 higher at $253.25 and November feeders closed $2.35 higher at $254.35. At Clovis Livestock Auction in Clovis, New Mexico, compared to last week, steers weighing 300 to 400 pounds traded steady to $1.00 lower while steers weighing 400 to 500 pounds traded steady to $3.00 lower. Feeder steers weighing 600 to 700 pounds sold softer but those weighing 700 to 800 pounds sold $2.00 to $12.00 higher. Heifer calves weighing 400 to 500 pounds sold $2.00 to $11.00 higher and feeder heifers weighing 600 to 700 pounds sold $7.00 to $12.00 stronger. Feeder cattle supply over 600 pounds was 22%. The CME Feeder Cattle Index for Auh. 23: up $0.39, $245.14.

LEAN HOGS:

Traders helped the lean hog complex close higher despite the market's lack of consistent support in pork cutout prices. October lean hogs closed $1.92 higher at $80.47, December lean hogs closed $0.85 higher at $71.90 and February lean hogs closed $0.57 higher at $75.95. The higher Thursday afternoon carcass price on the pork cutout report is somewhat misleading however as the belly alone jumped $15.24. Even so, gains were seen across all the other cuts except the rib which fell $2.48. Pork cutouts totaled 223.82 loads with 171.80 loads of pork cuts and 52.02 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: up $4.13, $104.92. Thursday's slaughter is estimated at 471,000 head, 5,000 head more than a week ago and 9,000 head less than a year ago. Wednesday's hog slaughter was revised to 464,000 head. The CME Lean Hog Index for Aug. 22: down $0.67, $97.37.

Pork net sales of 33,000 mt for 2023 were up 15% from the previous week and 40% from the prior four-week average. The three primary buyers were Mexico (18,000 mt), South Korea (5,800 mt) and Colombia (3,300 mt).

FRIDAY'S HOG CALL: Lower. Given that pork demand has been hard to come by, it's likely that prices will be lower in Friday's cash market.

Thursday Midday Livestock Market Summary - Livestock Contracts Trade Higher

GENERAL COMMENTS:

The livestock complex is trading with slightly higher tones as Thursday's afternoon approaches. The cash cattle market has seen a few sales develop here and there, but largely the market hasn't seen a set price established in either region yet. December corn is down 4 cents per bushel and December soybean meal is up $8.40. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 177.31 points.

LIVE CATTLE:

The live cattle complex is trading higher into Thursday's noon hour as traders consciously keep the market trading merely sideways as they wait for cash cattle trade to develop. The market saw and handful of cattle traded in Iowa late Wednesday afternoon for $295 live and $185 to $186 dressed, and this morning a light (extremely light) volume of cattle sold in Nebraska at $292 which is $3.00 lower than last week's weighted average. Asking prices in the South remain firm at $180 to $182 and in the North at $294 plus. More business will likely develop throughout the day, and at this point, steady to slightly weaker tones seem to summarize the market's early trades. October live cattle are up $0.40 at $179.07, December live cattle are up $0.20 at $183.10.

Beef net sales of 11,400 mt for 2023 were down 25% from the previous week and 28% from the prior 4-week average. The three primary buyers were South Korea (4,200 mt), Japan (2,300 mt) and Hong Kong (1,300 mt).

Boxed beef prices are higher: choice up $0.16 ($317.21) and select up $0.50 ($292.09) with a movement of 60 loads (31.90 loads of choice, 15.46 loads of select, 3.40 loads of trim and 9.07 loads of ground beef).

FEEDER CATTLE:

With corn prices again trading lower and the live cattle contracts pushing higher prices into Thursday's noon hour, the feeder cattle complex is seeing ample signs of support which is why the complex is trading higher. September feeders are up $1.05 at $249.62, October feeders are up $1.20 at $252.07 and November feeders are up $1.17 at $253.17. Hot temperatures this week are affecting cattle and are stressful on all classes, and some sale barns are noting that again this year buyers are buying unweaned calves without a vaccination protocol at a discount compared to the rest of the market.

LEAN HOGS:

The lean hog complex is chopping sideways as traders throw mixed interest toward the market. At this point, it seems as if traders want to respect the support plane around $78.00 as they're advancing the market despite pork demand continuing to remain in question. October lean hogs are up $0.75 at $79.30, December lean hogs are up $0.22 at $71.30 and February lean hogs are up $0.12 at $75.50. Our Southern neighbor (Mexico) was an aggressive buyer this past week which helped boost this week's export sales data.

The projected lean hog index for 8/23/2023 is down $0.97 at $96.40, and the actual index for 8/22/2023 is down $0.67 at $97.37. Hog prices are lower on the Daily Direct Morning Hog Report, down $2.15 with a weighted average price of $87.85, ranging from $82.00 to $89.50 on 2,582 head and five-day rolling average of $89.79. Pork cutouts total 139.31 loads with 114.82 loads of pork cuts and 24.49 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: up $3.38, $104.17.

Pork net sales of 33,000 mt for 2023 were up 15% from the previous week and 40% from the prior 4-week average. The three primary buyers were Mexico (18,000 mt), South Korea (5,800 mt) and Colombia (3,300 mt).

Thursday Morning Livestock Market Update - Hogs Struggle to Find Support

GENERAL COMMENTS:

Cash cattle have not traded as the standoff continues for another week. Feedlots believe they will be able to receive higher prices due to the strength of boxed beef. They feel packers will need to step up to purchase to supply the market. Smaller show lists also provide feedlots with some confidence for higher prices. Packers are seeing better margins but want to keep or improve those margins. There may be some trade today, but it is expected to be very limited. Boxed beef showed choice unchanged from the previous day at $317.05 with select up $2.08. The buying interest for feeder cattle recently has been tempered a bit which is likely the result of the choppiness of futures. Weekly export sales will be released this morning but may have limited impact on trading as the focus is cash.

Hog futures were unable to find support with both cash and cutouts down again yesterday. The nearby October discount to cash is narrowing but not in a supportive way. Cash continues to decline, and futures continue to decline but at a slower pace. October futures are now $10.00 under cash while they had been over $20 under cash not too long ago. The National Direct Afternoon Hog report showed a decline of $1.33 with the weighted average at $88.42. Cutouts fell again yesterday posting a loss of $2.86. The positive aspect yesterday was July inventory of frozen pork was down 10% from a year ago. Saturday hog slaughter is estimated at 140,000 head.

	BULL SIDE		BEAR SIDE
1)	Show lists are smaller this week which may require packers to step up to purchase what they need and for deferred delivery.	1)	Cattle futures have been struggling and unable to resume an uptrend. The market may have run out of steam as traders turn cautious.
2)	Boxed beef continues to show strength improving packer margins allowing them to spend a little more to obtain the supply they need and to keep ahead by purchasing for deferred delivery.	2)	The friendly Cattle on Feed report failed to generate strong buying interest with the results already factored in at current prices.
3)	A decrease of pork in cold storage during July indicates demand was good and increased slaughter pace was not adding to stocks.	3)	Pork cutouts continue to decline putting pressure on cash and futures.
4)	Three days of liquidation may have run its course with some hog futures contracts at a support level. The second half of the week could provide some short covering again.	4)	If hog futures move below the lows of yesterday and below technical support, further liquidation may be triggered.

Wednesday Closing Livestock Market Update - Live Cattle Close Slightly Higher

GENERAL COMMENTS:

The livestock complex struggled with the corn market's slight uptick as both the feeder cattle and lean hog contracts closed lower, but the live cattle complex was able to keep a mildly higher position through closing. Hog prices closed lower on the Daily Direct Afternoon Hog Report, down $1.33 with a weighted average price of $88.42 on 6,410 head and a five-day rolling average of $90.23. December corn is up 11 cents per bushel and December soybean meal is up $6.00. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 184.15 points.

Wednesday's Cold Storage Report shared that total red meat supplies in freezers were down slightly from the previous month and down 14% from a year ago. Total pounds of beef in freezers were up 2% from last month but down 18% from a year ago. Frozen pork supplies were down 3% from last month and down 10% from a year ago. Stocks of pork bellies were down 26% from last month but up 21% from last year.

LIVE CATTLE:

The live cattle complex closed mostly higher with just the December 2023 and February 2024 contracts closing slightly lower. Traders are appreciating the support in boxed beef prices, although they know that prices could be pressured again in the next couple of weeks before holiday buying begins. It's also encouraging that feedlots are holding out for at least steady prices as still no cattle have traded, and feedlots have turned down bids. A single bid of $290 was offered throughout the day in Nebraska, but feedlots didn't jump at its showing. October live cattle closed $0.05 higher at $178.67, December live cattle closed $0.22 lower at $182.92 and February live cattle closed $0.10 lower at $187.20. 

Wednesday's slaughter is estimated at 118,000 head, 5,000 head less than a week ago and 6,000 head less than a year ago.

Boxed beef prices closed higher: choice steady ($317.05) and select up $2.08 ($291.59) with a movement of 109 loads (64.51 loads of choice, 33.04 loads of select, zero loads of trim and 11.68 loads of ground beef).

THURSDAY'S CATTLE CALL: Steady. Packers are going to fight "guns blazing" to work prices lower, but feedlots also want to keep prices as close to steady as possible, so, once again, this week's trade is a gamble of wills between packers and feedlots.

FEEDER CATTLE:

The feeder cattle complex tried to keep its momentum through Wednesday's closing, but, with corn prices closing $0.09 to $0.11 higher, traders instead waived their white flag and let the contracts close lower. September feeders closed $0.42 lower at $248.57, October feeders closed $0.35 lower at $250.87 and November feeders closed $0.27 lower at $252.00. At Huss Livestock Market in Kearney, Nebraska, compared to the last sale two weeks ago, steers weighing 950 pounds and over sold $2.00 higher. Demand was moderate to good from the buyers in the crowd. Feeder cattle supply over 600 pounds was 97%. The CME Feeder Cattle Index for Aug. 22: down $0.21, $244.75.

LEAN HOGS:

The lean hog complex sank lower yet again through Wednesday's end as traders noted the uptick in corn prices and the continued pressured in pork cutout values. October lean hogs closed $1.02 lower at $78.55, December lean hogs closed $1.30 lower at $71.05 and February lean hogs closed $1.17 at $75.37. Thursday's market will be interesting to watch because traders are at the bottom side of this trading range and if pressure continues through Thursday's market, they'll have to decide if they're going to break through this support plane or chop the market sideways. If the belly wouldn't have had a $17.19 drop, the cutout value may have been able to close slightly higher as the butt gained $3.17 and the rib closed $2.51 higher. Pork cutouts totaled 298.96 loads with 264.41 loads of pork cuts and 34.55 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: down $2.86, $100.79. Wednesday's slaughter is estimated at 473,000 head, 2,000 head more than a week ago and 9,000 head less than a year ago. The CME Lean Hog Index for Aug. 21: down $0.77, $98.04.

THURSDAY'S HOG CALL: Steady. Packers showed Wednesday's market a little more support but, with cutout values being mostly pressured, I tend to believe that prices will remain steady.

Wednesday Midday Livestock Market Summary - Cattle Look Past Higher Corn Prices and Push Onward

GENERAL COMMENTS:

The livestock complex is seeing mixed interest heading into Wednesday's noon hour as the cattle contracts are looking past the slight uptick in corn prices as they climb higher into the day's afternoon. Meanwhile, the lean hog complex continues to struggle as pork demand remains scant. December corn is up 8 3/4 cents per bushel and December soybean meal is up $5.00. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 146.08 points.

LIVE CATTLE:

The back-and-forth trading saga continues in the live cattle complex as the live cattle market is pushing for higher prices heading into Wednesday's noon hour. Traders are looking at the market's strong demand and believe that's a valid enough reason, coupled with the market's bullish fundamental outlook, to push the contracts higher into today's afternoon. Still, no cash cattle trade has developed and with bids and asking prices still elusive, trade could be delayed until Thursday at this point. October live cattle are up $0.52 at $179.15, December live cattle are up $0.25 at $183.40 and February live cattle are up $0.35 at $187.65.

Boxed beef prices are higher: choice up $0.43 ($317.48) and select up $2.55 ($292.06) with a movement of 62 loads (36.51 loads of choice, 17.19 loads of select, zero loads of trim and 8.51 loads of ground beef).

FEEDER CATTLE:

The feeder cattle complex seems to be looking at Wednesday's market saying, "Ok, we can trade higher on the fact that feeder cattle demand is strong and given the recent onset of slightly higher tones in the live cattle contracts, but if any of that support dissipates, the pressure from the corn complex may not be able to be overlooked." Heading into Wednesday's noon hour corn prices are trading $0.07 to $0.08 higher which isn't a massive concern given the market's recent decline, but feeders never feel overly confident ahead of harvest when corn prices do flirt with trade higher. September feeders are trading steady at $249.00, October feeders are up $0.15 at $251.37 and November feeders are up $0.15 at $252.42.

LEAN HOGS:

The lean hog complex is continuing to traipse lower as slightly higher corn prices and a lack of demand don't bode well for the market. October lean hogs are down $0.37 at $79.20, December lean hogs are down $0.82 at $71.52 and February lean hogs are down $0.75 at $75.80. At this point, the market's sideways/somewhat lower trading range is expected to continue until traders find some better fundamental support -- especially in the form of better pork demand, which could be a challenging request given the uncertainty of Prop 12 going into state later this year.

The projected lean hog index for 8/22/2023 is down $0.67 at $97.37, and the actual index for 8/21/2023 is down $0.77 at $98.04. Hog prices are higher on the Daily Direct Morning Hog Report, up $0.84 with a weighted average price of $90.00, ranging from $86.00 to $94.00 on 2,158 head and a five-day rolling average of $90.99. Pork cutouts total 169.78 loads with 148.40 loads of pork cuts and 21.38 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: down $1.64, $102.01.