Thursday Closing Livestock Market Update - Complex Closed Lower

GENERAL COMMENTS:

It was a disappointing day for the livestock complex as all three of the markets closed lower as pressure abound from nearly every angle. Heading into Friday's market, be on the lookout for the morning's export sales report. December corn is down 7 1/2 cents per bushel and December soybean meal is down $4.60. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 207.33 points

LIVE CATTLE:

The live cattle complex broke lower as the market found Thursday's pressure to simply be too much to withstand. Between boxed beef prices trading lower, to the cash cattle market trading cattle $2.00 to $3.00 lower, traders again found themselves below the 100-day moving average in the December contract. December live cattle closed $1.07 lower at $182.95, February live cattle closed $0.97 lower at $185.10 and April live cattle closed $0.75 lower at $186.92. The market expected that steady prices would be the best case scenario for the cash cattle market this week. But once traders saw prices developing anywhere from $2.00 to $3.00 lower, the lack of support with which the market's fundamentals offered was disheartening. Mid-afternoon, some Southern live sales began to be reported at $185, which is $2.00 lower than last week's weighted average. A few live sales were also noted in Nebraska at $185, which is $1.00 lower than last week's weighted average. For cattle left to sell, asking prices are firm at $187 to $189 in the South and at $292 plus in the North. On Wednesday afternoon there were some cattle traded in the South at $290, which is $3.00 lower than last week's weighted average. 

Thursday's slaughter is estimated at 125,000 head -- steady with a week ago and 3,000 head more than a year ago.

Boxed beef prices closed lower: choice down $3.14 ($303.80) and select down $2.00 ($276.66) with a movement of 212 loads (157.44 loads of choice, 25.60 loads of select, 10.55 loads of select, 18.88 loads of ground beef).

FRIDAY'S CATTLE CALL: Steady with the week's trend. Given that sales have now been reported in both regions, it's likely that any more trade that develops on Friday will only be clean up in nature and remain steady with the week's trend.

FEEDER CATTLE:

Once the feeder cattle complex saw that the live cattle contracts were going to close fully lower, traders decided that the safest plan of action was to follow in line with the live cattle complex. November feeders closed $1.15 higher at $247.62, January feeders closed $0.45 lower at $243.20 and March feeders closed $0.47 lower at $241.72. Earlier in the day traders were rallying the feeder cattle complex on the fact that corn prices were lower and demand in the countryside was still incredibly strong. The combination of a weaker live cattle complex mixed with lower fat cattle trade and softer boxed beef prices sucked the wind right out of the feeder cattle market's sail. At Torrington Livestock Auction in Torrington, Wyoming compared to last week steer and heifer calves traded $4.00 to $8.00 higher with a few instances where prices topped out at $10.00 higher on spring born calves with fall shots. Feeder cattle supply over 600 pounds was 28%. The CME feeder cattle index 11/13/2024: up $2.02, $251.04.

LEAN HOGS:

The lean hog complex endured a stressful day where cash prices, pork cutout values and the board all traded lower. December lean hogs closed $1.77 lower at $80.10, February lean hogs closed $2.25 lower at $83.77 and April lean hogs closed $2.02 lower at $88.12. The wild losses in the belly didn't get any easier for the market to stomach as this afternoon's belly price dropped $20.78, which obviously had a significant effect on the carcass price. The hog complex is hopeful that Friday's export report may lend some support because this week's trade domestically has been tough. Hog prices closed lower on the Daily Direct Afternoon Hog Report, down $2.80 with a weighted average price of $86.14 on 2,686 head. Pork cutouts totaled 284.24 loads with 258.51 loads of pork cuts and 25.72 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: down $3.19, $94.07. Thursday's slaughter is estimated at 488,000 head -- 1,000 head more than a week and year ago. The CME lean hog index 11/12/2024: up $0.06, $89.94.

FRIDAY'S HOG CALL: Lower. At this point it's likely that packers have all but fulfilled their needs in the cash market.

2024 beef production rises 3% despite tight cattle inventory

Despite concerns about tight cattle inventory, 2024 beef production has increased by 3% from 2023. Cattle slaughter was down only 1% from last year, but heavier carcass weights, up by 44 lbs on average, significantly boosted production. Feedlots have maintained average capacity despite fewer cattle and declining feeder cattle supplies. Heifers made up nearly 40% of feedlot inventories as of October 1, indicating minimal heifer retention. Drought continues to hinder herd rebuilding, with 54% of all U.S. cattle in drought-affected areas. It's too early to predict how winter and the forecasted arrival of La Nina will impact drought. In the West, pasture conditions vary, but hay is inexpensive and abundant, leading many cattle producers to start rebuilding hay stockpiles.

While the U.S. cattle herd remains at a historically low level, U.S. meat exports are strong. Imports of Brazilian processing grade beef carcasses into the U.S. is a significant factor in meeting U.S. demand for ground beef. While some producers worry about increased importation of foreign beef into the country, markets tend to balance out, and U.S. beef is considered a premium product. As cattle numbers and herd rebuilding increase, the need for imported beef is expected to decrease. In the meantime, imports are necessary to ensure that U.S. demand can be met.

Every five years, the USDA and the Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) update the Dietary Guidelines for Americans. The latest proposal, recommending reduced red meat consumption in favor of plant-based proteins, is a disappointment to many beef producers. This proposal is in an open comment period, but some form of these changes will likely be reflected in the finalized dietary standards.

Cattle feeders: Slightly profitable - Bearish 12-month outlook
Cow-calf producers: Profitable - Neutral 12-month outlook

The cost of acquiring cattle will pose significant challenges for cattle feeder profitability, and scarcity may lead to intensified competition, further driving up prices. However, lower feed prices, particularly corn, are a mitigating factor to high placement costs.

Historically high cattle prices and lower feed costs support long-term cow-calf profitability, but headwinds persist with steep replacement cattle costs, ongoing drought, and high interest rates.

Thursday Midday Livestock Market Summary - Weaker Boxed Beef Prices, Lower Cash Sales Send Live Cattle Contracts Lower

GENERAL COMMENTS:

The feeder cattle complex has been the only livestock market able to keep its upward trend through Thursday's trade. Both the live cattle and lean hog contracts are trading lower into Thursday's noon hour as a lack of consumer support mixed with weaker cash sales doesn't give traders much hope for the market's technical side of things. December corn is down 6 1/4 cents per bushel and December soybean meal is down $2.70. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 137.01 points.

LIVE CATTLE:

Even though it was assumed cash cattle prices would be steady at best this week, the live cattle complex is trading lower as traders are disgruntled by the light trade that developed Wednesday afternoon in the North at $290, which is $3.00 lower than last week's weighted average. Bids of $185 are currently offered in the South, but no live sales have been reported at this point. Asking prices for live cattle in the South range from $187 to $189, and in the North at $292-plus. But the combination of lower boxed beef prices and weaker cash cattle sales has been enough pressure to send the live cattle contracts trailing lower into Thursday's noon hour. December live cattle are down $0.92 at $183.10, February live cattle are down $0.77 at $185.30, and April live cattle are down $0.52 at $187.15. Bids of $185 live are being noted in Kansas and Nebraska, but no new sales have developed yet Thursday.

Boxed beef prices are lower: choice down $2.66 ($304.28) and select down $2.04 ($276.62) with a movement of 105 loads (69.15 loads of choice, 14.19 loads of select, 7.27 loads of trim and 14.13 loads of ground beef).

FEEDER CATTLE:

Although the live cattle complex is trading lower, the feeder cattle market can't help but trade higher as the market notes the decline in corn prices Thursday morning and finds that to be a big enough supporting factor to drive the feeder cattle contracts higher. November feeders are up $1.00 at $247.47, January feeders are up $0.07 at $243.72, and March feeders are up $0.12 at $242.32. Thursday's continued support in the feeder cattle market is again keeping the contract from dipping back down below its 100-day moving average, which has been a threshold the market has struggled to confidently pass by.

LEAN HOGS:

It's one thing to watch the belly trade $5.00 to $10.00 lower, but it's another to see the belly dive $25.68 lower! The dramatic dive in the belly Thursday morning, which inevitably affected the carcass prices, has been enough fundamental disarray to worry traders, which is why the complex is trading $1.00 to $2.00 lower. December lean hogs are down $2.17 at $79.70, February lean hogs are down $2.72 at $83.30, and April lean hogs are down $2.30 at $87.85. And following Wednesday's big movement in the cash hog complex, it's unlikely the market will see much more sales happen in that sector this week.

The projected CME Lean Hog Index for 11/13/2024 is down $0.16 at $89.78, and the actual index for 11/12/2024 is up $0.06 at $89.94. Hog prices are lower on the Daily Direct Morning Hog Report, down $0.81 with a weighted average price of $87.18, ranging from $78.00 to $89.00 on 1,883 head and a five-day rolling average of $86.96. Pork cutouts totaled 177.68 loads with 160.64 loads of pork cuts and 17.04 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: down $4.23, $93.03.

Thursday Morning Livestock Market Update - Cash Cattle Trade Expected

GENERAL COMMENTS:

Cattle futures did make an effort to move higher Wednesday, but traders did not commit to the prospect of higher cash. Feedlots may not be as willing to let go of cattle as no further trade took place. Cash trade is expected to take place Thursday, but traders may wait to see what develops before being more aggressive one way or the other. Boxed beef seems to be following the pattern of last week with lower prices as the week progresses. Choice cuts were down $1.33 with select cuts down $1.26. Weekly export sales are delayed until Friday due to the Veterans Day holiday Monday. Feeder cattle futures have developed a sideways pattern. Demand is strong for cattle with traders supportive but following the lead of live cattle.

Hog futures held up well after being under pressure for most of Wednesday. Traders became a bit more aggressive as packers were paying more for hogs. The National Direct Afternoon report showed cash up $4.15 on a good volume of hogs purchased. It is likely they have purchased most of what they needed and will pay less for hogs Thursday. It does indicate demand is strong and packers are maintaining a strong slaughter pace. Cutouts showed a decline of $0.42. Hog futures remain in an uptrend and continue to see support from the trade. Hog weights increased last week after decreasing the previous week.

	BULL SIDE		BEAR SIDE
1)	Feedlots may dig in their heels and accept nothing less than steady cash. Feedlots rejected the bids that surfaced from packers Wednesday.	1)	The weakness of boxed beef casts a cloud over the market for the time being. Some of this is seasonal but some may be due to high prices.
2)	Cattle futures have corrected from their overbought status, making it more attractive for traders to buy back into the market more aggressively for the long term.	2)	If cash cattle trades lower this week, there could be renewed selling as traders liquidate some of their long positions.
3)	Hog futures rejected the lower prices that dominated much of Wednesday with traders buying the weakness as they remain bullish prices.	3)	Hog weights increased last week to an average of 286.6 pounds, up 0.8 pounds from the previous week. Weights are now 0.7 pounds below a year ago.
4)	The packers were aggressive Wednesday as they need hogs to maintain the strong slaughter pace and satisfy demand.	4)	The packers are not expected to be aggressive Thursday, which may temper the enthusiasm of traders.

Wednesday Closing Livestock Market Update - Bids Surface but Feedlots Continue to Hold Out for More Money

GENERAL COMMENTS:

It was a lackluster day for the livestock complex as traders showed the contracts mixed interest. Bids of $185 live and $290 dressed were offered throughout the day, but the cash cattle market sat mostly quiet. December corn is down 1 3/4 cents per bushel and December soybean meal is down $1.30. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 147.01 points.

LIVE CATTLE:

The live cattle complex struggled to find enough strength in the market's immediate fundamentals to justify trading the nearby contracts higher, but thankfully the deferred contracts were able to close mildly stronger. December live cattle closed $0.37 lower at $184.02, February live cattle closed $0.05 lower at $186.07 and April lean hogs closed $0.02 lower at $187.67. More than anything the nearby contracts seem to be stuck in somewhat of a holding pattern as traders wait to see what cash cattle prices do later this week. They hope to find stronger boxed beef prices as well. There were bids of $185 live and $290 dressed offered throughout the day, but feedlot managers didn't see the need in rushing to those low offers. Asking prices are firm in the South at $188 to $189 but remain unestablished still in the North. 

Wednesday's slaughter is estimated at 125,000 head -- steady with a week ago and 1,000 head more than a year ago.

Boxed beef prices closed lower: choice down $1.33 ($306.94) and select down $1.26 ($278.66) with a movement of 134 loads (78.24 loads of choice, 21.12 loads of select, 10.43 loads of trim and 23.89 loads of ground beef).

THURDAY'S CATTLE CALL: Steady. It's unlikely that packers will need cattle desperately enough to where cash prices will trade steady this week nor do I believe that feedlot managers will feel inclined to sell cattle for sharply lower prices either.

FEEDER CATTLE:

Even though some of the live cattle contracts pulled back ahead of Wednesday's close, all the feeder cattle contracts besides the November 2024 feeder cattle contract were able to end the higher. November feeders closed $0.35 lower at $246.47, January feeders closed $0.07 higher at $243.65 and March feeders closed $0.47 stronger at $242.20. Wednesday's higher end allowed the spot January contract to again further itself from the market's 100-day moving average which signals technical strength and with the markets strong showing in the countryside -- traders are currently being met with ample support and demand. At Philip Livestock Auction in Philip, South Dakota compared to last week feeder steers under 450 pounds sold steady, steers weighing 450 to 500 pounds sold steady to $3.00 higher, steers weighing 500 to 550 pounds traded $4.00 to $6.00 stronger, and steers weighing 550 to 600 pounds sold steady to $3.00 better. Feeder heifers under 400 pounds sold steady, heifers weighing 400 to 450 pounds sold $5.00 to $8.00 stronger, heifers weighing 450 to 550 pounds sold $8.00 to $10.00 higher, and heifers weighing 500 to 600 pounds sold $7.00 higher. Feeder cattle supply over 600 pounds was 8%. The CME feeder cattle index 11/12/2024: down $0.062, $249.02.

LEAN HOGS:

There's no way better to describe Wednesday's trade throughout the lean hog complex than to simply say that it was a mixed bad. Traders showed mixed interest in the market, the cash hog market saw tremendous packer interest, but again, pork cutout values rounded out the day lower. December lean hogs closed $0.47 lower at $81.87, February lean hogs closed $0.30 lower at $86.02, and April lean hogs closed $0.02 higher at $90.15. The drop in Wednesday afternoon's carcass price wasn't because of a big dip in the belly again, but rather because of a $3.27 decline in the picnic and a $2.14 drop in the rib. Hog prices closed higher on the Daily Direct Afternoon Hog Report, up $4.15 with a weighted average price of $88.94 on 13,040 head. Pork cutouts total 297.26 loads with 244.79 loads of pork cuts and 52.47 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: down $0.42, $97.26. Wednesday's slaughter is estimated at 489,000 head -- 1,000 head more than a week ago and 2,000 head more than a year ago. The CME lean hog index 11/11/2024: down $0.14, $89.88.

THURDSAY'S HOG CALL: Lower. Given that Wednesday's cash hog trade was sizeable, it's highly unlikely that packers will do much more buying throughout the later part of the week.

Wednesday Midday Livestock Market Summary - Cattle Push Higher, While Hogs Fall Back

GENERAL COMMENTS:

The livestock complex is trading mixed into Wednesday's noon hour as the cattle contracts are mostly higher, but the lean hog complex is more reserved in its trade. Still no developments have surfaced in the cash cattle market, but packer interest could improve this afternoon. December corn is down 2 1/2 cents per bushel and December soybean meal is down $2.80. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 173.52 points.

LIVE CATTLE:

The live cattle complex is trading mostly higher as the market continues to find ample support. The spot December contract is the only month trading slightly lower, and that's likely because of the boxed beef market's lower prices Wednesday morning. The cash cattle market continues to sit idle and no bids have surfaced, but packer interest could improve later today. Asking prices are noted in the South at $188 to $189 but remain unestablished in the North. It's expected prices will trade steady this week, but if by chance feedlot managers elect to mostly roll their showlists over to next week and trade very few cattle this week, there's a chance packers could have to get more aggressive in the market next week if they are indeed short bought. December live cattle are down $0.30 at $184.10, February live cattle are up $0.02 at $186.10, and April live cattle are up $0.07 at $187.77.

Boxed beef prices are lower: choice down $0.78 ($307.49) and select down $1.05 ($278.87) with a movement of 82 loads (46.18 loads of choice, 12.46 loads of select, 5.04 loads of trim and 18.75 loads of ground beef).

FEEDER CATTLE:

With the help of the live cattle market's support, the feeder cattle complex is again trading higher into the noon hour. November feeders are steady at $246.82, January feeders are up $0.72 at $244.30, and March feeders are up $1.07 at $242.80. This higher move once again helps distance the spot January contract further above the market's 100-day moving average which from a technical standpoint signals strength. The market continues to rally thanks to the added support of trader interest, but if the fed cash cattle market can trade steady, the contracts may be able to push even higher later this week once trade develops.

LEAN HOGS:

At this point traders seem uncertain in challenging the market's resistance any more until support from fundamentals strengthens. December lean hogs are down $0.55 at $81.80, February lean hogs are down $0.32 at $86.00, and April lean hogs are down $0.15 at $89.97. You may point to Wednesday's higher midday carcass price and wonder what's not supportive enough about a $1.36 jump? But aside from today's higher price, the carcass has been mostly trading lower this week as the belly has seen wild price swings. And while traders are appreciative of today's gain, they also want to see stable consumer demand consistency at the meat counter.

The projected CME Lean Hog Index for 11/12/2024 is up $0.06 at $89.94, and the actual index for 11/11/2024 is down $0.14 at $89.88. Hog prices on the Daily Direct Morning Hog Report average $87.99, ranging from $86.00 to $90.00 on 3,810 head and a five-day rolling average of $86.62. Pork cutouts total 182.92 loads with 152.70 loads of pork cuts and 30.22 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: up $1.36, $99.04.

Wednesday Morning Livestock Market Update - Feedlots Seem Anxious to Sell Cattle

GENERAL COMMENTS:

Cattle futures found more aggressive buying interest Tuesday stemming from higher boxed beef prices Monday. However, traders may pause to reflect on boxed beef price on Tuesday with choice up $0.06 and select down $1.92. Some cattle were sold in Iowa at steady money, indicating feedlots may be a bit anxious to move cattle this week. Packers may take advantage of this and hold out with lower bids which could result in lower prices for the week. Slaughter continues to run at a slower pace as packers try to improve margins and match production with demand. Traders attempted to close the chart gaps with that being accomplished in feeder cattle but not in the December live cattle contract. December could trade higher Wednesday to close the gap but may have difficulty finding further support.

Hog futures continued to make new highs in February and later contracts. The June and July contracts moved just shy of the $100 level Tuesday with futures showing limited volatility in later contracts. The National Direct Afternoon Hog report showed cash up $1.27 as packers bid for hogs more aggressively. The packers may not be as aggressive Wednesday and may temper their buying until later in the week as they see how demand unfolds. Cutouts took a hit Tuesday with a decline of $3.78. This may be an anchor on the market heading into Wednesday. Hog slaughter remains above a year ago as packers need to satisfy pork demand.

	BULL SIDE		BEAR SIDE
1)	December live cattle were not able to close the chart gap but may find sufficient strength early Wednesday to accomplish the task.	1)	The December cattle contract may close the chart gap and then fall back, continuing the trend lower if cash cattle trade steady to weaker.
2)	Early cash trade at steady money may be an indication of how cash trades the rest of the week. This would provide support for cattle futures.	2)	Feedlots seem anxious to sell cattle with light business taking place on Tuesday. This may have set the trend for the week.
3)	New highs in hog futures continue to support the strong uptrend. Traders continue to add to long positions, anticipating higher prices as hog numbers may be lower than expected.	3)	The large decline in cutouts on Tuesday could trigger some selling in hog futures as traders react to the weakness.
4)	The packers continue to run a strong slaughter pace. This keeps market-ready hogs current and demand satisfied.	4)	Packers were more aggressive buying hogs early this week. They may temper their buying Wednesday and until they see evidence of continued strong demand.

Tuesday Closing Livestock Market Update - Traders Help Advance Contracts

GENERAL COMMENTS:

It was a successful day for the livestock complex as traders remained committed to supporting the markets through Tuesday's end. A handful of cattle sold at steady prices with last week's weighted average, but largely the cash market still hasn't established a trend for this week. December corn is down 1 1/2 cents per bushel and December soybean meal is down $2.20. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 382.15 points.

LIVE CATTLE:

The live cattle complex was able to round out Tuesday on a higher note as traders found it supportive that boxed beef prices were higher at noon which ultimately helped propel the market higher through the remainder of the day. December live cattle closed $0.70 higher at $184.40, February live cattle closed $0.75 higher at $186.12, and April live cattle closed $0.95 higher at $187.70. Today's higher close did enable the spot December contract to close above its 100-day moving average, which remains a threshold the market continues to dance around. A few cash cattle sales were reported at mostly steady prices with last week's trade, but by no means has a trend been established for this week's market. Asking prices are noted in the South at $188 to $189 but remain unestablished still in the North. 

Tuesday's slaughter is estimated at 121,000 head -- 3,000 head less than a week ago and 6,000 head less than a year ago.

Boxed beef prices closed mixed: choice up $0.06 ($308.27) and select down $1.92 ($279.92) with a movement of 123 loads (69.93 loads of choice, 37.37 loads of select, zero loads of trim and 16.46 loads of ground beef).

WEDNEDSAY'S CATTLE CALL: Steady. Given that packers sit with a plethora of cattle committed to them, it's assumed prices will trade steady at best this week.

FEEDER CATTLE:

Upon seeing the live cattle contracts turn higher and deeming it was safe to trade higher, the feeder cattle market also changed its demeanor and successfully closed higher. November feeders closed $0.67 higher at $246.82, January feeders closed $1.32 higher at $243.57, and March feeders closed $1.67 higher at $241.72. The spot January contract was able to close above both its 100-day and 40-day moving averages, but the market will likely be pressured to support that decision through the remainder of the week. From a fundamental standpoint, the market remains well supported as buyer demand has been exceptional already this week in sales across the country. At Oklahoma National Stockyards in Oklahoma City, Oklahoma, compared to last week feeder steers were trading $2.00 to $4.00 higher except the 600 to 700 pound steers which traded $10.00 higher. Feeder heifers sold steady to $2.00 higher and steer and heifer calves old $15.00 to $20.00 higher. Feeder cattle supply over 600 pounds was 54%. The CME Feeder Cattle Index 11/11/2024: down $0.19, $249.64.

LEAN HOGS:

With traders fully onboard to continue to support the lean hog complex despite whatever the market's fundamentals seem to do -- traders elected to push the contracts higher through Tuesday's end. December lean hogs closed $0.57 higher at $82.35, February lean hogs closed $0.40 higher at $86.32, and April lean hogs closed $0.15 higher at $90.12. The spot December contract is still below resistance levels, but the February contract inched beyond current resistance thresholds as traders seem more than confident in their decision to continue to support the sector. Thankfully cash prices were slightly higher Tuesday afternoon which could be thought of as a small token of fundamental support. But yet again, the afternoon carcass price fell lower as the belly's sharp descent pulled the average back. December lean hogs closed $0.57 higher at $82.35, February lean hogs closed $0.40 higher at $86.32, and April lean hogs closed $0.15 higher at $90.12. Hog prices closed higher on the Daily Direct Afternoon Hog Report, up $1.27 with a weighted average price of $84.79 on 5,793 head. Pork cutouts totaled 379.60 loads with 340.95 loads of pork cuts and 38.65 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: down $3.78, $97.68. Tuesday's slaughter is estimated at 489,000 head -- 1,000 head more than a week ago and 15,000 head more than a year ago. The CME Lean Hog Index 11/8/2024: down $0.41, $90.02.

WEDNESDAY'S HOG CALL: Steady. Packers will likely need to be aggressive at least one more day in this week's cash market; but given that pork cutout values are softer this week, it's likely prices will remain steady.

Tuesday Midday Livestock Market Summary - Support From Equity Markets Helps Drive Contracts Higher

GENERAL COMMENTS:

The livestock complex is trading mostly higher into Tuesday's noon hour as the uptick in the equity markets is helping drive positive momentum throughout the livestock contracts. Still no cash cattle trade has developed but asking prices are noted in the South at $188 to $189. December corn is down 2 cents per bushel and December soybean meal is down $0.90. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 253.65 points.

LIVE CATTLE:

Originally the live cattle complex was reluctant to trade higher but as Tuesday progressed traders have changed their tune and now the market is modestly higher into Tuesday's noon hour. Seeming to help add a little additional fundamental support is the higher note of morning boxed beef prices, which was the theme throughout Monday's trade as well. It's still too early in the week for any cash cattle trade to have developed, but it's expected that prices will be steady at best. Asking prices are noted in the South at $188 to $189 but are still not established in the North. The change in the market's direction has thankfully pulled the spot December contract away from its 100-day moving average, which continues to be a threshold the market is contemplating. December live cattle are up $0.80 at $184.47, February live cattle are up $0.80 at $186.17, and April live cattle are up $0.95 at $187.70.

Boxed beef prices are higher: choice up $0.61 ($308.82) and select up $0.36 ($282.20) with a movement of 71 loads (39.79 loads of choice, 22.43 loads of select, zero loads of trim and 8.80 loads of ground beef).

FEEDER CATTLE:

With the live cattle market's support, the feeder cattle complex is also trading higher into Tuesday's noon hour as the market continues to follow closely in line with whatever the live cattle market does. November feeders are up $0.35 at $246.50, January feeders are up $0.95 at $243.20, and March feeders are up $1.17 at $241.22. The spot January contract is trading slightly above both its 100-day and 40-day moving averages, but the market will need continued support if it's going to maintain its elevated position through Tuesday's end and later this week.

LEAN HOGS:

It's interesting to watch the dynamics currently in the lean hog complex as the nearby contracts are trading slightly higher, but the deferred months are trending mostly lower. From a solely fundamental sense, you'd expect the hog complex to be trading slightly lower as this morning yet again pork cutout values are lower because of a significant drop in the belly (down $8.92) and there has not been enough competition in the cash market for hog prices to even be reported. But with the equity markets thriving, the nearby contracts are choosing to continue to trade higher. December lean hogs are up $0.70 at $82.47, February lean hogs are up $0.45 at $86.35, and April lean hogs are down $0.07 at $89.90.

The projected CME Lean Hog Index for 11/11/2024 is down $0.14 at $89.88, and the actual index for 11/8/2024 is down $0.41 at $90.02. Hog prices are unavailable on the Daily Direct Morning Hog Report because of confidentiality. However, we can see that only 3,563 head have traded and that the market's five-day rolling average now sits at $84.01. Pork cutouts total 196.68 loads with 181.65 loads of pork cuts and 15.02 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: down $2.23, $99.23.

Tuesday Morning Livestock Market Update - Strong Pork Demand Pushes Prices Higher

GENERAL COMMENTS:

Cattle futures closed higher Monday but are struggling to gain solid footing. It was positive to see higher boxed beef with choice up $0.28 and select up $2.65. This pattern was seen last week, only to see boxed beef prices resume weakness as time progressed. A similar pattern could be seen this week. Futures need to find support soon or the market could see another liquidation phase. Cattle supplies have not suddenly increased but demand has slowed for the time being. There is no slowing down in demand for feeder cattle as available supplies are tighter and the outlook for cattle prices remains positive.

Hog futures posted another strong day Monday with the front-month December leading the way. Trader optimism is strong, and they have been buying and holding for the long haul. An overbought market showed a price correction in nearby contracts while later contracts continued to make new highs. The packers stepped up aggressively Monday with the National Direct Afternoon Hog report showing a gain of $1.85. Cutout values were down $0.92 -- not surprising after the large gain seen Friday. The June and July contracts are knocking on the door of $100, which has not been seen for a while.

	BULL SIDE		BEAR SIDE
1)	Feeder cattle prices remain strong as numbers are tight which should continue to support live cattle. The cattle herd is not yet in a rebuilding stage.	1)	Boxed beef prices have been unable to find solid support as high beef prices have impacted demand.
2)	Nearby live and feeder cattle contracts have chart gaps above the market that may be filled sooner rather than later.	2)	Traders are cautious as the beef market could follow a similar pattern as last year by making a substantial price correction into the end of the year.
3)	Hog futures continue to make new highs as traders are not shy about increasing their long positions. Traders are following the trend.	3)	Managed money traders are holding a record-long position and any change in fundamentals or psychology could trigger liquidation of hog futures.
4)	Hog numbers are not out there as had been anticipated. This has kept the packers more aggressive as demand has improved and margins are good. This will keep slaughter active.	4)	The higher hog prices go and the larger the managed money position, the more nervous technical traders become and the larger the price decline if the market changes.

Monday Closing Livestock Market Update - Traders Push Contracts Higher

GENERAL COMMENTS:

The livestock complex was able to round out the day on a higher note, as traders were pleased to see stronger boxed beef prices, which helped turn both the live cattle and feeder cattle contracts higher ahead of the day's end. New showlists appear to be mixed -- higher in Texas, but lower in Nebraska, Colorado and Kansas. December corn is down 1 cent per bushel, and December soybean meal is down $1.10. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 304.14 points.

LIVE CATTLE:

The live cattle complex was able to scrape together enough support ahead of the day's end to close mildly higher Monday afternoon. December live cattle closed steady at $183.70, February live cattle closed $0.07 higher at $185.37, and April live cattle closed $0.22 higher at $186.75. More than anything, Monday's slight uptick before the bell closed seemed to be because traders found some fundamental support in the market's higher midday boxed beef prices, which, thankfully, was again found in Monday's closing box prices. Last week, prices trended lower, and while feedlot managers hope that prices hold steady and consumer demand shows favor to the beef cuts, there's a good chance that seasonally speaking, prices are pressured again this week. New showlists appear to be mixed -- higher in Texas, but lower in Nebraska, Colorado and Kansas.

Last week, Southern live cattle traded for mostly $187, which is $3 lower than the previous week's weighted average, and Northern dressed cattle traded for mostly $294, which is also $3 lower than the previous week's weighted average. Last week's negotiated cash cattle trade totaled 50,010 head. Of that, 83% (41,519 head) were committed to the nearby delivery, while the remaining 17% (8,391 head) were committed to the deferred delivery option.

Boxed beef prices closed higher: choice up $0.28 ($308.21) and select up $2.65 ($281.84) with a movement of 126 loads (84.39 loads of choice, 19.68 loads of select, 7.45 loads of trim and 14.06 loads of ground beef).

TUESDAY'S CATTLE CALL: Steady to somewhat lower. Given that packers sit with ample supplies of cattle committed to them, it's likely that prices will trade steady at best this week.

FEEDER CATTLE:

The feeder cattle complex was able to close slightly higher Monday afternoon, as the market inched higher once it saw the live cattle complex trading higher. But what was potentially the most impressive note throughout the day for the feeder cattle market was the continued demand in the countryside for feeders and calves. Prices were noted as sharply higher in numerous sale reports, as buyers are still needing more cattle for their pens. November feeders closed $0.72 higher at $246.15, January feeders closed $0.82 higher at $242.25 and March feeders closed $0.67 higher at $240.05. Unfortunately, even with the day's higher end, the spot January contract still closed below the market's 40- and 100-day moving averages, as technical support has been extremely hit or miss for the feeder cattle market here as of late. At Joplin Regional Stockyards in Carthage, Missouri, compared to last week and at their mid-session point, feeder steers under 725 pounds were selling anywhere from $5 to $20 higher with heavier weights selling steady to $3 higher. Feeder heifers were trading steady to $10 higher. Feeder cattle supply over 600 pounds was 59%. The CME feeder cattle index 11/8/2024: down $0.03, $249.83.

LEAN HOGS:

Wide price swings in the belly continue to be a norm for the market right now, and once again, the afternoon carcass price was pulled lower, mostly because of the $11.18 decline in the belly. However, traders continue to support the market, and as long as demand improves later this week, they may be able to maintain their confidence. But given that the market is close to resistance thresholds, fundamental demand will become more important. December lean hogs closed $1.35 higher at $81.77, February lean hogs closed $1.10 higher at $85.92 and April lean hogs closed $0.72 higher at $89.97. Hog prices closed higher on the Daily Direct Afternoon Hog Report, up $1.85 with a weighted average price of $83.52 on 3,373 head. Pork cutouts totaled 278.70 loads with 241.67 loads of pork cuts and 37.03 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: down $0.92, $101.46. The CME lean hog index 11/7/2024: down $0.18, $90.43.

TUESDAY'S HOG CALL: Steady. Even though packers won't be thrilled to see the afternoon carcass price lower, it's likely that they're still going to need to be engaged in Tuesday's cash market, as they weren't very active in the cash market late last week.

Monday Midday Livestock Market Summary - Mixed Tones Dominate Complex Early in Week

GENERAL COMMENTS:

The livestock complex is off to a mixed start this week as traders continue to support the lean hog contracts but aren't as confident in supporting the cattle contracts. It is positive, however, that midday boxed beef prices are higher, which could help traders feel more confident about supporting the live cattle complex at least. December corn is down 2 1/4 cents per bushel and December soybean meal is up $0.80. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 355.25 points.

LIVE CATTLE:

The live cattle contracts have been in a bit of a slump thus far through Monday's trade, but with boxed beef prices higher at midday, there's a chance if the market's fundamentals prevail traders could turn the futures direction around to higher prices later this week. December live cattle are down $0.10 at $183.57, February live cattle are down $0.10 at $185.20, and April live cattle are down $0.07 at $186.47. The market is still maintaining its position above the 100-day moving average, but unless traders find some technical footing, that average could be tested. It is worth noting that last week's cash cattle trade only totaled 50,010 head, which means this week's market could see better packer demand. New showlists appear to be mixed -- higher in Texas, but lower in Nebraska, Colorado and Kansas.

Last week Southern live cattle traded for mostly $187 which is $3.00 lower than the previous week's weighted average, and Northern dressed cattle traded for mostly $294 which is also $3.00 lower than the previous week's weighted average. Last week's negotiated cash cattle trade totaled 50,010 head. Of that 83% (41,519 head) were committed to the nearby delivery, while the remaining 17% (8,391 head) were committed to the deferred delivery option.

Boxed beef prices are higher: choice up $0.23 ($308.16) and select up $0.55 ($279.74) with a movement of 80 loads (58.31 loads of choice, 10.88 loads of select, 3.60 loads of trim and 6.83 loads of ground beef).

FEEDER CATTLE:

Without the live cattle market's support, the feeder cattle complex is also trading lower as the market needs to see better technical interest before it will confidently move higher. Monday's lower break does push the spot January contract below both its 100-day and 40-day moving averages, which never is a thriving technical sign. November feeders are up $0.27 at $245.70, January feeders are down $0.25 at $241.17, and March feeders are down $0.37 at $239.00. Thankfully, again last week we saw tremendous buyer demand in the countryside for both feeders and calves; as long as that buyer interest remains prevalent throughout the market, at least traders can note the continued support from the market's fundamentals.

LEAN HOGS:

Even though morning pork cutout values are slightly lower, the lean hog complex is still trading somewhat higher as traders continue to support the market faithfully. Last week we saw wild swings in the belly which affected the carcass price, and again this week it would appear as though that's going to be the trend as this morning the belly is down $13.73. December lean hogs are up $1.07 at $81.50, February lean hogs are up $0.90 at $85.72, and April lean hogs are up $0.47 at $89.72.

The projected CME Lean Hog Index for 11/8/2024 is down $0.41 at $90.02, and the actual index for 11/7/2024 is down $0.18 at $90.43. Hog prices are unavailable on the Daily Direct Morning Hog Report because of confidentiality. However, we can see that only 978 head have traded and that the market's five-day rolling average now sits at $83.52. Pork cutouts total 167.41 loads with 145.22 loads of pork cuts and 22.19 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: down $0.11, $102.27.

Monday Morning Livestock Market Update - Traders Increase Record-Long Hog Futures Position

GENERAL COMMENTS:

The market anticipated cash would be lower and that took place Friday. Both Northern dressed cattle and Southern live cattle traded $3.00 lower as feedlots needed to let their cattle go and not hold out for another week. The weakness of boxed beef indicates slower demand. That may not bode well for this week either. The packers continue to work the slaughter pace to their advantage and will continue to do so as they need to improve margins with boxed beef prices continuing to decline. On Friday, boxed beef was lower in both categories with choice down $1.53 and select down $0.53. The WASDE report released Friday was positive as USDA raised their estimated cattle prices for the next four quarters. Bear in mind these are estimates and market fundamentals may dictate otherwise as time progresses. The Commitments of Traders report showed the fund traders added 937 contacts of live cattle, bringing their net-long futures position to 101,453 contracts. They added 2,379 futures contracts of feeder cattle, bringing the net-long position to 10,130 contracts.

Hog futures continue to hold well despite the recent selling in the nearby December contract as bull spreads were unwound and are moving closer in line with cash. The February and later contracts made new highs Friday, supported by strong demand and the strength of cutouts. Cutouts values gained $4.42 Friday, supported by a huge increase in bellies of $19.54 and ribs up $5.38. Cash did not fare as well with the National Direct Afternoon Hog report showing a loss of $3.36. The packers may not be aggressive Monday as they may wait to see the weekend pork movement before being more aggressive. USDA increased price expectations for pork for the next year on the WASDE report. The Commitments of Traders report showed fund traders remaining bullish on the market, adding 13,900 futures contracts, bringing their net-long positions to 121,069 contracts and another record long position.

	BULL SIDE		BEAR SIDE
1)	Cattle futures have corrected from their overbought technical status which may increase the desire of traders to step back in for the longer term once the Goldman Roll is finished this week.	1)	Cattle futures are trending lower and further losses could trigger increased selling by the fund traders.
2)	The December live cattle and the November and January feeder cattle contracts have chart gaps above the market that may be closed at some point.	2)	Lower boxed beef prices reflect lower demand which will keep packers less aggressive..
3)	Strong demand for pork continues to support the market and keep traders willing to hold and add to their long positions.	3)	The fund traders hold a record-long futures position, and any fundamental weakness could trigger selling.
4)	The hog numbers that had been anticipated are not out there. Packers are more aggressive with their weekly purchases.	4)	The hog supply may not be as abundant as anticipated but there remains sufficient hogs available for demand, which may limit the aggressiveness of packers.

Friday Closing Livestock Market Update - Cash Cattle Prices Trade $3 Lower

GENERAL COMMENTS:

Friday ended up being a mixed day for the livestock complex, as although the deferred lean hog contracts closed higher, most of the livestock complex closed slightly lower. Throughout the day, some more cash cattle trade was reported, and Southern live cattle were marked at $187 and Northern dressed cattle at $294 -- both of which are $3 lower than last week's weighted average. December corn is up 3 1/2 cents per bushel, and December soybean meal is down $2.30. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 259.65 points.

From Friday to Friday, livestock futures scored the following changes: December live cattle down $2.22, February live cattle down $1.60; November feeder cattle down $1.45, January feeder cattle down $1.77; December lean hogs down $3.65, February lean hogs down $1.20; December corn up $0.17, March corn up $0.15.

LIVE CATTLE:

As the funds begin to roll their positions to deferred months, the live cattle complex came under some pressure, as it not only battled some technical pressure from the start of the Goldman roll, but traders were left unsupported by the market's fundamentals, as not only did boxed beef prices drift lower through the week's end, but cash prices traded lower too. Southern live cattle were marked at mostly $187 this week, and Northern dressed sales were marked at $294, both of which are $3 lower than last week's weighted average. It was disappointing, however, to see the spark fizzle out in the spot December contract, as its close was below the market's 40-day moving average. December live cattle closed $2.12 lower at $183.70, February live cattle closed $2.12 lower at $185.30, and April live cattle closed $1.72 lower at $186.52. Friday's slaughter is estimated at 116,000 head -- 3,000 head less than a week ago and 4,000 head more than a year ago. Saturday's slaughter is projected to be around 9,000 head. The week's total slaughter is estimated at 619,000 head -- 4,000 head more than a week ago and 3,000 head less than a year ago.

Friday's WASDE report was very supportive to the cattle and beef markets of 2024 and 2025. Beef production for 2024 was increased by 25 million pounds, as dressed weights are significantly heavier than originally assumed, and cow processing speeds aren't expected to decline through the year's end, which more than offsets the decrease in the fed cattle slaughter. Beef production for 2025 was also increased by 355 million pounds, as fed cattle slaughter is expected to increase. Feedlot managers will be pleased to see quarterly steer prices were increased from last month's projection, as steer prices in the fourth quarter of 2024 are expected to average $188 (up $2 from last month); steer prices in the first quarter of 2025 are expected to average $188 (up $1); steer prices in the second quarter of 2025 are expected to average $187 (up $1); and steer prices in the third quarter of 2025 are expected to average $186 (up $1). Beef imports for 2024 were increased by 125 million pounds, as packers need more processing type of cuts, but exports for 2024 also saw a slight increase of 5 million pounds. Beef imports for 2025 were increased by 90 million pounds, but 2025 exports were also increased by 100 million pounds.

Boxed beef prices closed lower: choice down $1.53 ($307.93) and select down $0.53 ($279.19) with a movement of 151 loads (93.84 loads of choice, 17.23 loads of select, 10.19 loads of trim and 29.98 loads of ground beef).

MONDAY'S CATTLE CALL: Lower. With boxed beef prices trading lower and packers sitting on plenty of inventory, it's unlikely that they'll have to be aggressive enough in the cash market to where prices trade higher.

FEEDER CATTLE:

The feeder cattle complex traded right in line with what the live cattle market did this week, and Friday's trade was no different. The only thing that really separated the live cattle market's outlook compared to that of the feeder cattle market's is that from a fundamental sense, buyer demand was impeccable for both feeders and calves this past week. Given the fact that the CME feeder cattle index continues to trade around $249-$250 shows just how aggressive buyers are. November feeders closed $2.22 lower at $245.42, January feeders closed $2.90 lower at $241.42 and March feeders closed $2.87 lower at $239.37. The Oklahoma Weekly Cattle Auction Summary revealed that compared to recent weeks, feeder steers traded steady to $5 higher, except those weighing 600 to 700 pounds, which sold $8 lower. Steers calves sold unevenly steady. Feeder heifers and heifer calves sold $4 to $8 lower. Slaughter cows sold $1 to $3 higher, and slaughter bulls sold steady. Feeder cattle supply over 600 pounds was 53%. The CME feeder cattle index 11/7/2024: down $0.08, $249.86.

LEAN HOGS:

The lean hog complex endured some of the same technical pressure in its nearby contracts that the cattle complex saw, but thankfully, the market was still able to close higher in at least its deferred contracts. Wild price swings continue to be the norm of pork cutout values, as on Friday, the belly's $19.54 jump helped push the carcass price higher. December lean hogs closed $0.77 lower at $80.42, February lean hogs closed $0.47 lower at $84.82 and April lean hogs closed $0.07 higher at $89.25. Hog prices closed lower on the Daily Direct Afternoon Hog Report, down $3.36 with a weighted average price of $81.67 on 1,234 head. Pork cutouts totaled 282.28 loads with 241.33 loads of pork cuts and 40.95 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: up $4.42, $102.38. Friday's slaughter is estimated at 485,000 head -- 1,000 head more than a week ago and 33,000 head more than a year ago. Saturday's slaughter is projected to be around 168,000 head. The CME lean hog index 11/6/2024: up $0.38, $90.61.

Friday's WASDE report was supportive for the hog and pork markets of 2024 and 2025. Pork production for 2024 was decreased by 90 million pounds, as slaughter speeds and carcass weights are both lighter than originally assumed. The trend continued into 2025 projections, as pork production for 2025 was decreased by 115 million pounds. Thankfully, the industry did see some support in terms of quarterly prices, as hog prices in the fourth quarter of 2024 are expected to average $60 (up $5 from last month); hog prices in the first quarter of 2025 are expected to average $58 (up $3); hog prices in the second quarter of 2025 are expected to average $62 (up $1); and hog prices in the third quarter of 2025 are expected to average $63 (which is unchanged from a month ago). Pork imports for 2024 were decreased by 21 million pounds and pork exports for 2024 were increased by 1 million pounds. Pork imports for 2025 were decreased by 15 million pounds, but pork exports for 2025 were decreased by 40 million pounds.

MONDAY'S HOG CALL: Steady. Packers weren't aggressive late this week in the cash market, which could pressure them to be slightly more aggressive early next week.

Friday Midday Livestock Market Summary - Technical Pressure Drives Cattle Complex Lower

GENERAL COMMENTS:

The livestock complex is trading mostly lower into Friday's noon hour as some technical pressure is settling into the market. A few more cash cattle sales have been reported in Nebraska at $188, but otherwise the market is still quiet. December corn is up 1/2 cent per bushel and December soybean meal is down $1.80. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 258.15 points.

LIVE CATTLE:

The live cattle complex is trading lower as the market endures some pressure as traders are likely reacting to the fact that some of the funds are moving their positions as the Goldman roll gets underway. Friday's lower break thankfully remains above the market's 100-day moving average, but all in all it isn't that surprising the market is trading lower given that cash prices are developing $2.00 to $3.00 lower than last week's weighted average and boxed beef prices are trending lower too." Nevertheless, the market will likely continue with this weaker trend through Friday's close. December live cattle are down $1.55 at $184.27, February live cattle are down $1.57 at $185.85, and April live cattle are down $1.42 at $186.82. Following Thursday's light cash cattle trade, there have been a few more deals starting to surface as the market nears Friday's noon hour. Some live sales have been reported this morning in Nebraska at $188, but most of the other bids have sat idle this morning as they're still several dollars below current asking prices. Southern feedlot managers are asking $190 to $192 and Northern feedlot managers are asking $296-plus. There were a few sales noted Thursday afternoon in eastern Nebraska where cattle sold for mostly $294, which is $3.00 lower than last week's weighted average. Packer interest should improve this afternoon but given that they've been able to slowly add to their inventory over the last couple of weeks, prices are expected to be lower this week and the week's movement could be light.

Friday's WASDE report was very support to the cattle and beef markets of 2024 and 2025. Beef production for 2024 was increased by 25 million pounds as dressed weights are significantly heavier than originally assumed and cow processing speeds aren't expected to decline through the year's end, which more than offsets the decrease in the fed cattle slaughter. Beef production for 2025 was also increased by 355 million pounds as fed cattle slaughter is expected to increase. Feedlot managers will be pleased to see quarterly steer prices were increased from last month's projection as steer prices in the fourth quarter of 2024 are expected to average $188 (up $2.00 from last month); steer prices in the first quarter of 2025 are expected to average $188 (up $1.00); steer prices in the second quarter of 2025 are expected to average $187 (up $1.00); and steer prices in the third quarter of 2025 are expected to average $186 (up $1.00). Beef imports for 2024 were increased by 125 million pounds as packers need more processing type of cuts, but exports for 2024 also saw a slight increase of 5 million pounds. Beef imports for 2025 were increased by 90 million pounds, but 2025 exports were also increased by 100 million pounds.

Boxed beef prices are lower: choice down $0.18 ($309.28) and select down $1.59 ($278.13) with a movement of 104 loads (67.66 loads of choice, 11.41 loads of select, 8.67 loads of trim and 16.42 loads of ground beef).

FEEDER CATTLE:

With the live cattle complex trading lower, it comes as no surprise that the feeder cattle market is also trending lower. November feeders are down $2.07 at $245.57, January feeders are down $2.67 at $241.67, and March feeders are down $2.75 at $239.50. Friday's lower dive in the spot January contract does push the contract back below its 40-day and 100-day moving averages, which typically means the market is in a weaker trend.

LEAN HOGS:

The lean hog complex is trading mixed into Friday's noon hour as the market is currently enduring some pressure on nearby contracts, but the deferred contracts are trading slightly higher. December lean hogs are down $0.72 at $80.47, February lean hogs are down $0.45 at $84.85, and April lean hogs are down $0.22 at $88.95. The swings in the carcass price have been extreme lately as the belly is up $33.51 Friday morning -- which has pushed the carcass price over $7.00 higher. The projected CME Lean Hog Index for 11/7/2024 is down $0.18 at $90.43 and the actual index for 11/6/2024 is up $0.37 at $90.61. Hog prices are lower on the Daily Direct Morning Hog Report, down $3.03 with a weighted average price of $82.23, ranging from $74.00 to $85.50 on 924 head and a five-day rolling average of $83.52. Pork cutouts total 195.33 loads with 170.20 loads of pork cuts and 25.13 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: up $7.13, $105.10.

Friday's WASDE report was supportive for the hog and pork markets of 2024 and 2025. Pork production for 2024 was decreased by 90 million pounds as slaughter speeds and carcass weights are both lighter than originally assumed, and the trend continued into 2025 projections as pork production for 2025 was decreased by 115 million pounds. Thankfully the industry did see some support in terms of quarterly prices as hog prices in the fourth quarter of 2024 are expected to average $60.00 (up $5.00 from last month); hog prices in the first quarter of 2025 are expected to average $58.00 (up $3.00); hog prices in the second quarter of 2025 are expected to average $62.00 (up $1.00); and hog prices in the third quarter of 2025 are expected to average $63 (which is unchanged from a month ago). Pork imports for 2024 were decreased by 21 million pounds and pork exports for 2024 were increased by one million pounds. Pork imports for 2025 were decreased by 15 million pounds, but pork exports for 2025 were decreased by 40 million pounds.

Friday Morning Livestock Market Update - Lower Cash Cattle Prices Expected

GENERAL COMMENTS:

Traders allowed futures to drift higher Thursday despite the low weekly export sales report. Beef sales were dismal at only 8,000 metric tons (mt), a marketing year low and down 43% from the previous week. Cash has not yet traded this week with a greater anticipation of lower prices. The packers had a fair amount of cattle purchased ahead and are not anxious to purchase aggressively this week due to lower boxed beef prices. Price took a huge hit Thursday with choice down $6.13 and select down $3.48. This may increase the resolve of packers to hold for lower cash. Feedlots will make the decision whether to hold cattle for another week and risk yet lower prices or move them this week. Cattle futures have lower cash already factored in, which may leave futures mixed even if cash trades lower.

The favorite activity of hog traders over the past few weeks has been spread trading. The December contract was under pressure Thursday as traders sold the December and purchased later contracts. The relieving of the overbought technical status of the market seems to be more calculated rather than heavy liquidation by the funds. Pork cutouts took a big hit Thursday with a decline of $4.19. This was offset by packers being more aggressive with the National Direct Afternoon Hog report up $2.31. It is unusual to see strong cash on Thursday, which may mean the packers will be less aggressive Friday. The estimate for Saturday slaughter was raised to 166,000 head.

	BULL SIDE		BEAR SIDE
1)	Cattle futures already have lower cash factored in and may see buying interest depending on where cash trading takes place.	1)	The large drop in boxed beef prices Thursday is reflecting reduced demand as consumers grapple with high food and other prices.
2)	Reduced domestic beef supplies will continue for a time and the potential for increased tariffs on imports may support prices in the longer term.	2)	Marketing year low beef export sales may indicate reduced international demand due to high beef prices. Prices may need to decline further to stimulate demand. .
3)	The hog numbers do not seem to be out there, which has been reflected in the cash price. The packers have had to be more aggressive with their purchases to procure the hogs they need.	3)	The large decline of pork cutouts Thursday may trigger selling in futures Friday.
4)	The packers continue to run strong slaughter paces as their margins are good and demand is good.	4)	The packers are not expected to be aggressive Friday as they likely have most of their business done for the week.

Thursday Closing Livestock Market Update - Boxed Beef Prices and Pork Cutout Values Dip Lower

GENERAL COMMENTS:

It was a mixed day for the livestock complex as although the futures contracts closed higher, the market saw some pressure from its fundamentals as both pork cutout values and boxed beef prices closed lower. Still no cash cattle trade has developed but prices are expected to be lower this week. December corn is up 1 1/4 cents per bushel and December soybean meal is up $0.10. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 0.59 points.

Thursday's export report shared that beef net sales of 8,00 mt for 2024 -- a marketing year low -- were down 43% from the previous week and 45% from the prior 4-week average. The three largest buyers were South Korea (2,100 mt), Japan (2,000 mt) and Canada (1,200 mt). Pork net sales of 14,700 mt for 2024 -- a marketing year low -- were down noticeably from the previous week and the prior 4-week average. The three largest buyers were Japan (2,300 mt), South Korea (2,100 mt) and Panama (200 mt).

LIVE CATTLE:

The live cattle complex traded higher throughout the majority of the day, seeming to still be encouraged by Wednesday's strong rally in the Dow Jones. December live cattle closed $0.42 higher at $185.82, February live cattle closed $0.70 higher at $187.42 and April live cattle closed $0.45 higher at $188.25. It's also likely that the cattle complex was pleased with the Fed's decision to decline interest rates by a quarter of a percentage point as most producers are working with some type of lending situation. What was odd; however, about Thursday's trade was the sharp decline in boxed beef prices. Boxed beef prices have slowly been enduring some mixed pressure this week, but today's close was sharply lower in both the choice and select cuts. Bids of $186 live and $292 dressed were offered throughout the day in Nebraska, but no cattle traded. Asking prices remain firm at $190 to $192 in the South and are still unestablished in the North. 

Thursday's slaughter is estimated at 125,000 head – 4,000 head more than a week ago and 2,000 head more than a year ago.

Boxed beef prices closed lower: choice down $6.13 ($309.46) and select down $3.48 ($279.72) with a movement of 179 loads (104.41 loads of choice, 36.35 loads of select, 6.66 loads of trim and 31.67 loads of ground beef).

FRIDAY'S CATTLE CALL: Lower. With today's sharp decline in boxed beef prices and packers having plenty of cattle around them through their recent purchases in the cash market over the last couple of weeks, cash prices will likely be lower this week.

FEEDER CATTLE:

The feeder cattle complex traded higher throughout the day as the market continues to be well supported by buyer demand in the countryside and was given enough technical support as the live cattle contracts traded higher. November feeders closed $0.05 lower at $247.65, January feeders closed $0.30 higher at $244.32 and March feeders closed $0.50 higher at $242.55. It was also positive to see that spot January contract again closed above its 100-day moving average, which signals better technical support. At La Junta Livestock Commission in La Junta, Colorado compared to last week feeder steers under 400 pounds sold sharply lower, but steers weighing over 400 pounds sold anywhere from $1.00 to $9.00 higher. Feeder heifers weighing 250 to 400 pounds sold $20.00 to $25.00 higher, but heifers weighing 400 to 600 pounds sold $1.00 to $4.00 lower. Heifers over 600 pounds sold $1.00 to $6.00 higher. Feeder cattle supply over 600 pounds was 16%. The CME lean hog index 11/6/2024: down $0.08, $249.92.

LEAN HOGS:

Although the market was pressured earlier today by the note of weaker exports, by the day's close the market again found support and secured a higher end ahead of closing. December lean hogs closed $0.92 lower at $81.20, February lean hogs closed $0.15 higher at $85.30 and April lean hogs closed $0.45 higher at $89.17. Today's higher end throughout the futures complex wasn't because of continued consumer support as this afternoon's carcass price closed sharply lower thanks to the dramatic $17.05 decline in the belly and the $4.99 drop in the ham. More than anything today's higher end seems to be traders re-gathering themselves after enduring some nervousness around the election earlier this week. Hog prices closed higher on the Daily Direct Afternoon Hog Report, up $2.31 with a weighted average price of $85.03 on 1,575 head. Pork cutouts totaled 326.03 loads with 283.82 loads of pork cuts and 42.21 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: down $4.19, $97.96. Thursday's slaughter is estimated at 481,000 head -- 5,000 head less than a year ago and 13,000 head more than a year ago. The CME lean hog index 11/5/2024: up $0.45, $90.24.

FRIDAY'S HOG CALL: Lower. With the day's afternoon carcass price dropping dramatically, it's unlikely that packers will be apt to support the cash market on Friday.

Thursday Midday Livestock Market Update - Weak Exports Push the Hog Complex Lower

GENERAL COMMENTS:

Both the live cattle and feeder cattle contracts are trading mostly higher into Thursday's noon hour, but the lean hog complex is trading mixed as traders grumble about the morning's export sales report. There's currently a single bid being offered in the North at $186, but otherwise, the cash market is still silent. December corn is down 3/4 cent per bushel and December soybean meal is down $3.10. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 38.63 points.

Thursday's export report shared that beef net sales of 8,00 mt for 2024 -- a marketing year low -- were down 43% from the previous week and 45% from the prior 4-week average. The three largest buyers were South Korea (2,100 mt), Japan (2,000 mt) and Canada (1,200 mt). Pork net sales of 14,700 mt for 2024 -- a marketing year low -- were down noticeably from the previous week and the prior 4-week average. The three largest buyers were Japan (2,300 mt), South Korea (2,100 mt) and Panama (200 mt).

LIVE CATTLE:

This morning's export report wasn't anything for the live cattle complex to dote over as the report highlighted a marketing year low for beef exports, but thankfully the jump in the Dow Jones yesterday continues to push a strong underlying supportive nature throughout the live cattle market. December live cattle are up $0.32 at $185.72, February live cattle are up $0.30 at $187.02 and April live cattle are down $0.05 at $187.75. A single bid is currently being offered in Nebraska at $186, but no feedlot managers have jumped at the offer. Asking prices in the South remain firm at $190 to $192 but are still not established in the North. At this point without much packer interest having developed, it's likely that the week's trade could be delayed until Friday. It is supportive from a technical sense to see the spot December live cattle contract trading above the market's 40-day moving average as this possibly means that Tuesday's bottom will serve as a short-term support plane for the complex.

Boxed beef prices are lower: choice down $2.89 ($312.70) and select down $0.26 ($282.94) with a movement of 75 loads (26.16 loads of choice, 16.27 loads of select, 4.02 loads of trim and 28.40 loads of ground beef).

FEEDER CATTLE:

Some of the nearby feeder cattle contracts are trading slightly lower, but overall, the market is trading mostly higher into Thursday's noon hour. Between the support of the live cattle complex's higher trend and the continued support of strong buyer demand in the countryside, the market has all the support it needs to continue to press onward into the afternoon. November feeders are down $0.17 at $247.52, January feeders are up $0.02 at $244.05 and March feeders are up $0.02 at $241.75. It is worth noting that the spot January contract is continuing to hold its position above the market's 100-day moving average which is significant from a technical sense.

LEAN HOGS:

Given the morning's export sales report, which highlighted a marketing year low for the hog market, and the fact that morning carcass price is down over $1.00 -- it's surprising that the hog complex was trading higher this morning. As the noon hour approaches, the nearby contracts are trading slightly lower, but the deferred contracts are continuing to trade higher. The morning's carcass price was mainly pulled lower because of the $10.47 decline in the belly. December lean hogs are down $0.92 at $81.20, February lean hogs are down $0.05 at $85.10 and April lean hogs are down $0.05 at $88.67.

The projected lean hog index for 11/5/2024 is up $0.45 at $90.24, and the actual index for 11/4/2024 is up $0.41 at $89.79. Hog prices are higher on the Daily Direct Morning Hog Report, up $0.96 with a weighted average price of $85.26, ranging from $79.50 to $87.00 on 860 head and a five-day rolling average of $83.23. Pork cutouts total 149.33 loads with 127.96 loads of pork cuts and 21.37 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: down $1.29, $100.86.

Thursday Morning Livestock Market Update - Traders To Focus on Market Fundamentals

GENERAL COMMENTS:

The focus of cattle traders Wednesday seemed to be the stock market strength. An increasing economy would be beneficial for consumers and possibly increase beef demand. There is much more involved in the workings of the market but this psychological aspect permeated the markets. The bottom line is cash cattle have not yet been traded, leaving traders cautious over continued strength. Boxed beef prices took a hit on Wednesday with choice down $1.62 and select down $2.04. Cash cattle trade should develop Thursday but the direction will be determined by whether feedlots need to move cattle more aggressively or are willing to hold another week.

Hog futures started lower but then turned higher as the day progressed. Traders looked at the benefits of a possible better economy and the current strong demand and reversed the initial losses. Cash did not fare well with the National Daily Direct Afternoon Hog report down $0.65. The packers may hold back Thursday, hoping to procure more hogs at lower prices. If they are unable to purchase sufficient numbers, they may bid up on Friday. Pork cutouts did well with values of $0.72. Hog weights are beginning to trend lower, requiring more hogs to fill demand. Saturday slaughter is estimated at 162,000 head.

	BULL SIDE		BEAR SIDE
1)	Cattle futures may have corrected sufficiently to increase the buying interest of traders. Cattle supplies remain tight with limited rebuilding of the herd.	1)	The strength in cattle futures may have been due to the strong stock market, not its fundamentals. Cash cattle trade is expected to be lower.
2)	A better economy would increase disposable income and improve consumer buying power. Increased beef consumption could be one of the benefits.	2)	Boxed beef prices may continue to show weakness as demand has slowed.
3)	Hog futures continue to show resilience as demand is strong and packers continue to run higher slaughter speeds.	3)	Traders will need to see strong weekly export sales or futures could show weakness as there would be concern over international interest due to the strong U.S. dollar.
4)	Hog weights declined by 0.2 pound last week to an average of 285.8 pounds. This is 0.9 pound below a year and the first time weights have been lower in quite some time.	4)	Hog futures are overbought which may result in a further price correction as funds may take profits.

Wednesday Closing Livestock Market Update - Traders Support the Contracts

GENERAL COMMENTS:

It was a rallying day for the livestock complex as by Wednesday's end all three of the market closed higher thanks to the added support of the equity market's strength. No cash cattle sales have been noted yet, but packer demand should improve on Thursday. December corn is up 7 3/4 cents per bushel and December soybean meal is down $1.10. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 1,508.05 points.

LIVE CATTLE:

It was hard not for the live cattle complex to rally throughout the day as the market saw big gains in the equity markets and consequently traded powerfully throughout all of Wednesday's trade. December live cattle closed $0.62 higher at $185.40, February live cattle closed $0.77 higher at $186.72 and April live cattle closed $0.80 higher at $187.80. It will be interesting to see if today's higher mark serves as another short-term bottom for the markets or if traders will again resume the market's downward Thursday morning. At this point, no cash cattle sales have developed, but asking prices are noted in the South at $190 to $192 but are not yet established in the North. 

Wednesday's slaughter is estimated at 125,000 head -- 1,000 head more than a week ago and steady with a year ago.

Boxed beef prices closed lower: choice down $1.62 ($315.59) and select down $2.04 ($283.20) with a movement of 131 loads (69.81 loads of choice, 24.91 loads of select, 9.75 loads of trim and 26.22 loads of ground beef).

THURSDAY'S CATTLE CALL: Lower. With packers able to buy some cattle with the deferred delivery option last week, that likely means that this week's trade will be lower.

FEEDER CATTLE:

Even though the corn complex closed $0.06 to $0.07 higher, the feeder cattle market powered through the day rallying substantially as the complex took the support from the live cattle market and charged onward. November feeders closed $1.55 higher at $247.70, January feeders closed $1.67 higher at $244.02 and March feeders closed $1.25 higher at $241.75. The spot January contract was able to close slightly above the market's 100-day moving average, which signals bullishness, but first thing Thursday morning traders are going to be pressured to either cave and fall back below that threshold or continue with the recent change in direction. At Philip Livestock Auction in Philip, South Dakota compared to last week feeder steers weighing 400 to 450 pounds sold steady to $3.00 higher, steers weighing 450 to 550 pounds sold steady, and steers weighing 500 to 700 pounds traded steady to $2.00 higher. Feeder heifers weighing 400 to 550 pounds sold $2.00 to $4.00 higher, heifers weighing 500 to 600 pounds sold $2.00 to $3.00 lower and heifers weighing 800 to 850 pounds sold $2.00 higher. Feeder cattle supply over 600 pounds was 29%. The CME feeder cattle index 11/5/2024: down $0.01, $250.72.

LEAN HOGS:

The lean hog complex originally was trading lower at the day's start as the uptick in the US dollar concerned traders about the market's ability to export into countries like Mexico. But as the day traded on, the continued support from US consumers helped alleviate some of the other pressures and by the day's end, the market closed higher. December lean hogs closed $1.00 higher at $82.12, February lean hogs closed $0.65 higher at $85.15 and April lean hogs closed $0.62 higher at $88.72. Thursday's export report will again be a big-hitting line item for the market as demand remains its strongest driving force currently. Hog prices are lower on the Daily Direct Afternoon Hog Report, down $0.65 with a weighted average price of $82.72 on 4,265 head. Pork cutouts total 266.66 loads with 234.71 loads of pork cuts and 31.95 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: up $0.72, $102.15. Wednesday's slaughter is estimated at 488,000 head -- steady with a week ago and 2,000 head more than a year ago. The CME lean hog index 11/4/2024: up $0.41, $89.79.

THURSDAY'S HOG CALL: Lower. Given that packers were aggressive in the cash market earlier this week it's likely that they show the complex less attention on Thursday and Friday as their needs are likely filled.