Monday Closing Livestock Market Update - Feeders Retreat After a Bullish Corn Stalks Report

GENERAL COMMENTS:

The livestock complex closed mixed with the feeder cattle market lagging behind both the live cattle and lean hog markets. The feeder cattle market was mainly put out of sorts thanks to the bullish corn stalks report which drove corn prices higher and grabbed the feeder cattle market's attention. Early in the day. December corn is up 6 3/4 cents per bushel and December soybean meal is down $2.50. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 17.15 points.

LIVE CATTLE:

The live cattle complex was able to round out Monday's market higher thanks to the slight support in which traders lent the marketplace. October live cattle closed $0.02 higher at $183.77, December live cattle closed $0.32 higher at $184.80 and February live cattle closed $0.30 higher at $185.85. Traders supported the complex through the day's end, but only in a mild manner as they need and want to see more fundamental support arise before they aggressively advance the contracts again. Thankfully boxed beef prices did close higher this afternoon -- which will be something that both cattlemen and traders monitor closely throughout the week. Monday's slaughter is estimated at 119,000 head -- 1,000 head more than a week ago and 4,000 head less than a year ago. New showlists appear to be mixed, somewhat higher in Texas, higher in Nebraska/Colorado, but lower in Kansas.

Last week Southern live cattle traded for mostly $185, which is $2.00 higher than the previous week's weighted average, and Northern dressed cattle traded mostly $294, which is $3.00 higher than the previous week's weighted average. Last week's negotiated cash cattle trade totaled 81,235 head. Of that 85% (69,201 head) were committed to the nearby delivery while the remaining 15% (12,034 head) were committed to the deferred delivery.

Boxed beef prices closed higher: choice up $1.39 ($298.08) and select up $2.45 ($284.53) with a movement of 102 loads (65.73 loads of choice, 16.28 loads of select, 5.18 loads of trim and 14.41 loads of ground beef).

TUESDAY'S CATTLE CALL: Steady. Feedlot managers will again price cattle higher this week, but with boxed beef prices teetering, it's likely that prices may just trade steady.

FEEDER CATTLE:

Even though the live cattle complex closed higher, the feeder cattle market simply couldn't muster up the same level of support throughout Monday's trade. October feeders closed $0.87 lower at $246.20, November feeders closed $0.80 lower at $244.90 and January feeders closed $0.82 lower at $238.77. Not helping the feeder cattle complex either was the bullish corn stalks report shared early today which drove nearby corn prices up $0.06. At Joplin Regional Stockyards in Carthage, Missouri, compared to last week and at their midsession point, feeder steers were traded steady to $3.00 higher and feeder heifers were selling steady to $8.00 higher. Feeder cattle supply over 600 pounds was 54%. The CME feeder cattle index 9/27/2024: up $1.71, $247.24.

LEAN HOGS:

Despite a couple of the nearby contracts closing slightly lower, the lean hog market rallied through Monday's end. You'll note that the December 2024 and February 2025 contracts closed lower which was likely driven down by the presumption from the Quarterly Hogs and Pigs report that market-ready supplies of hogs weighing 180 pounds or more are significantly greater than a year ago. But beyond that, the market was well supported, and the afternoon carcass price was even able to close higher which was largely because of the $2.44 jump in the belly. Hog prices closed higher on the Daily Direct Afternoon Hog Report, up $1.57 with a weighted average price of $76.68, ranging from $73.00 to $77.75 on 2,855 head and a five-day rolling average of $76.67. Pork cutouts totaled 250.36 loads with 222.75 loads of pork cuts and 27.62 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: up $0.09, $95.84. Monday's slaughter is estimated at 485,000 head -- 6,000 head more than a week ago and 2,000 head less than a year ago. The CME lean hog index 9/26/2024: down $0.04, $84.03.

TUESDAY'S HOG CALL: Higher. With pork cutout values closing higher and packers showing slight interest in Monday's cash market it likely means that they'll be even more aggressive on Tuesday.

Monday Midday Livestock Market Summary - Traders Show Mixed Interest Toward Complex

GENERAL COMMENTS:

The livestock complex is off to a mixed start as traders wrap their minds around the market and what could be ahead. New showlists appear mixed, somewhat higher in Texas, higher in Nebraska/Colorado, but lower in Kansas. December corn is up 6 1/2 cents per bushel and December soybean meal is down $0.10. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 117.64 points.

LIVE CATTLE:

The live cattle complex started Monday mostly lower, but as time has passed, traders have shown more interest and support and are currently helping the live cattle complex trading fully higher into the noon hour. October live cattle are up $0.45 at $184.20, December live cattle are up $0.40 at $184.87, and February live cattle are up $0.40 at $185.92. Following last week's tremendous performance, traders and cattlemen alike are scratching their heads this week wondering how much more upside the market holds for the immediate future. If boxed beef prices were consistently trading higher, then one could safely bet the rest of the market's mechanics should trade higher too. But if boxed beef prices are weaker this week, do you think the cash cattle market will be able to trade higher for the third week in a row? Time will tell. New showlists appear to be mixed, somewhat higher in Texas, higher in Nebraska/Colorado, but lower in Kansas.

Last week Southern live cattle traded for mostly $185, which is $2.00 higher than the previous week's weighted average, and Northern dressed cattle traded mostly $294, which is $3.00 higher than the previous week's weighted average.

Boxed beef prices are higher: choice up $0.78 ($297.47) and select up $1.18 ($283.26) with a movement of 63 loads (39.99 loads of choice, 7.68 loads of select, 4.30 loads of trim and 10.92 loads of ground beef).

FEEDER CATTLE:

Even though the live cattle complex is trading higher, the feeder cattle market is trading in a reserved manner and traders need to see fundamental support before advancing prices any higher. October feeders are down $0.65 at $246.42, November feeders are down $0.67 at $245.02, and January feeders are down $0.87 at $238.72. The feeder cattle market was well supported last week with the live cattle and fed cash cattle markets trading higher, and the market again hopes this week to find that same level of support.

LEAN HOGS:

All in all, the lean hog complex is back to trading mostly higher as traders approach the week with a new attitude. Helping support their desire to advance the futures complex is the midday pork cutout value which is thankfully higher at the week's start. Any time the market can see stable/supportive interest from consumers is a win for the hog sector. October lean hogs are up $0.17 at $82.22, December lean hogs are down $0.17 at $73.20, and February lean hogs are down $0.05 at $77.45. And while some of the nearby contracts may be trading mildly lower, the deferred contracts aren't as pressured as traders believe market-ready supplies of hogs will be thinner at that point.

The projected CME Lean Hog Index for 9/27/2024 is down $0.02 at $84.01, and the actual index for 9/26/2024 is down $0.04 at $84.03. Hog prices are lower on the Daily Direct Morning Hog Report, down $0.18 with a weighted average price of $76.42, ranging from $74.00 to $77.00 on 1,170 head and a five-day rolling average of $76.35. Pork cutouts total 130.02 loads with 114.50 loads of pork cuts and 15.52 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: up $1.04.

Monday Morning Livestock Market Update - Traders to Position For End of Month, Quarter

GENERAL COMMENTS:

Feedlots were able to band together and hold for higher prices last week. This sent cattle futures higher Thursday, but could not maintain follow-through strength on Friday. Traders made a valiant effort earlier in the day, but aggressive buying dried up, resulting in a mixed close. The packers may be increasing slaughter as a necessity to supply demand and needed to increase their bids to get cattle purchased. Cattle in the South traded $2.00 higher with Northern dressed cattle trading $3.00 higher. Boxed beef prices were mixed with choice up $0.32 and select down $0.29. The Commitments of Traders report showed funds purchasing 13,233 futures in live cattle, increasing their net-long positions to 57,010 contracts. They bought 1,921 futures contracts in feeder cattle, bringing their net-long position to 1,051 contracts.

Hog futures made a valiant attempt to regain the losses suffered Thursday, but could not hold the gains, resulting in a mixed close Friday. Futures could see selling pressure Monday as it is the end of the month and the end of the quarter and managed money traders close out the books. Some pressure could stem from the National Direct Afternoon Hog report showing a decline of $3.07 after a week of higher cash. However, some support should come from cutouts gaining $1.11. Packers continue to run a stronger slaughter pace, indicating strong demand. The Commitments of Traders report showed funds remained bullish as they purchased 13,955 futures, increasing their net-long position to 58,825 contracts.

	BULL SIDE		BEAR SIDE
1)	Fund traders are adding to their net-long position in anticipation of higher cattle prices as time progresses. They are buying for the long haul.	1)	Cattle futures did not follow-through Friday, even though October futures hold a discount to cash. Traders need to see further cash strength to improve their confidence.
2)	The trend is up in cattle futures with futures setting a high Friday before slipping back. Higher cash cattle and the possible increase in slaughter may provide further support.	2)	Boxed beef prices continue to have difficulty finding solid support. If this continues this week, the packers may hold the line on cash.
3)	The packers may not have been as aggressive Friday but might need to step up again this week to procure the hogs they need to maintain the strong slaughter pace.	3)	Further weakness in hog futures could break the uptrend and turn the market as fund selling could be triggered.

Friday Closing Livestock Market Update - Traders Leave the Complex Mixed After a Fruitful Week

GENERAL COMMENTS:

The livestock complex rounded out Friday's end mixed as traders appeared to run out of steam and interest later in the week. No new cash cattle sales were reported throughout the day as packers fulfilled most of their needs on Thursday. December corn is up 4 3/4 cents per bushel and December soybean meal is up $17.30. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 137.89 points.

From Friday-to-Friday livestock futures scored the following changes: October live cattle up $1.28, December live cattle up $1.28; October feeder cattle up $3.18, November feeder cattle up $3.93; October lean hogs down $0.17, December lean hogs down $0.85; December corn up $0.16, March corn up $0.15.

LIVE CATTLE:

The live cattle complex rounded out Friday's end mixed, but throughout the vast majority of the week, the market performed exceptionally well with the futures complex continuing to add market position above the 100-day moving average, and with the cash cattle market trading $2.00 to $3.00 higher. Friday's weaker end in the nearby contracts seemed to be nothing more than a lack of trader support ahead of the weekend as some traders likely clocked out early to enjoy some nice fall weather. October live cattle closed $0.35 lower at $183.75, December live cattle closed $0.35 lower at $184.47 and February live cattle closed $0.10 lower at $185.55. No new cash cattle trade developed throughout the day as most of the week's business was completed on Thursday. Throughout the week Southern live cattle traded at mostly $185 (which is $2.00 higher than last week's weighted average) and Northern dressed cattle traded at $294 (which is $3.00 higher than last week's weighted average). 

Friday's slaughter is estimated at 116,000 head -- 8,000 head more than a week ago and 21,000 head more than a year ago. Saturday's slaughter is projected to be around 9,000 head. The week's total slaughter is estimated at 612,000 head -- 2,000 head more than a week ago and 1,000 head more than a year ago.

Boxed beef prices closed mixed: choice up $0.32 ($296.69) and select down $0.29 ($282.08) with a movement of 96 loads (66.02 loads of choice, 16.18 loads of select, zero loads of trim and 14.28 loads of ground beef).

MONDAY'S CATTLE CALL: Steady. Before we can predict how next week's cash market will trade, we will need to see how many cattle packers got bought with time as that will help indicate who holds the vast majority of the market's leverage -- packers or feedlot managers.

FEEDER CATTLE:

The feeder cattle complex powered through Friday's end as the market was well supported by the live cattle market's higher tone, stronger fed cattle prices and by strong buyer demand in the countryside for feeders and calves. October feeders closed $0.15 higher at $247.07, November feeders closed $0.72 higher at $245.70 and January feeders closed $0.85 higher at $239.60. Throughout the entire week the nearby feeder cattle contracts traded higher as this past week was somewhat of a perfect storm for the market with ample technical and fundamental support helping propel prices higher. So long as the live cattle market continues to trade in a robust manner, the feeder cattle complex could keep with this trend into next week's market. The Oklahoma Weekly Cattle Auction Summary shared that compared to last week feeder steers sold steady to $2.00 higher. Steer calves weighing 500 to 600 pounds sold $5.00 higher. And steer calves under 500 pounds traded sharply higher on a light test. Feeder heifers and heifer calves both traded steady to $2.00 lower, expect the four weight heifers which sold $7.00 higher. Slaughter cows sold $6.00 to $10.00 lower and slaughter bulls traded $2.00 lower. Feeder cattle supply over 600 pounds was 60%. The CME feeder cattle index 9/26/2024: up $1.33, $245.53.

LEAN HOGS:

The lean hog complex rounded out the day mixed with some of the deferred contracts closing slightly higher, but the nearby contracts closed mostly lower as traders are still wrestling with the marketing data unveiled yesterday on the Quarterly Hogs and Pigs Report. October lean hogs closed $0.02 higher at $82.05, December lean hogs closed $0.55 lower at $73.37 and February lean hogs closed $0.32 lower at $77.50. And while supply pressures may loom for the hog complex in the near future, thankfully Friday's afternoon carcass price closed higher with significant gains in butt (up $2.60), loin (up $1.85) and the picnic (up $1.45) all helping advance the carcass price. Hog prices closed $3.07 lower on the Daily Direct Afternoon Hog Report and 3,440 head traded. Pork cutouts totaled 285.95 loads with 262.37 loads of pork cuts and 23.58 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: up $1.11, $95.75. Friday's slaughter is estimated at 484,000 head -- 9,000 head more than a week ago and 10,000 head more than a year ago. Saturday's slaughter is projected to be around 152,000 head. The CME lean hog index 9/25/2024: up $0.02, $84.07.

MONDAY'S HOG CALL: Lower. The cash hog market won't likely see much demand on Monday as packers will continue to closely monitor demand and will be mindful about the supplies coming down the pike.

Friday Midday Livestock Market Summary - Cattle Continue to Rally Thanks to the Cash Market's Support

GENERAL COMMENTS:

With the snappy $2.00 to $4.00 advancement in the cash cattle market, it's not surprising to see both the live cattle and feeder cattle markets trading mostly higher. No new sales have been noted at this point which likely means that the bulk of this week's trade is essentially done with. December corn is up 6 cents per bushel and December soybean meal is up $13.80. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 269.60 points.

LIVE CATTLE:

Thanks to the fundamental support seen this week from the cash cattle complex, the live cattle market is trading mostly higher into Friday's noon hour. Some of the furthest deferred contracts are trading slightly lower, but overall, the market is flush with optimism thanks to the cash market's $2.00 to $4.00 advancement yet again this week. No new cash cattle trade has been noted at this point which likely means that the bulk of this week's trade is done with. However, on Thursday Southern live cattle sold for $185 which is $2.00 higher than last week's weighted average and Northern dressed cattle traded at mostly $294 which is $4.00 higher than last week's weighted average. Asking prices for cattle left on showlists are around $186 plus in the South and $295 plus in the North. October live cattle are up $0.25 at $184.35, December live cattle are up $0.15 at $184.97 and February live cattle are up $0.25 at $185.90.

Boxed beef prices are mixed: choice up $0.50 ($296.87) and select down $0.11 ($282.26) with a movement of 72 loads (48.82 loads of choice, 11.59 loads of select, zero loads of trim and 11.48 loads of ground beef).

FEEDER CATTLE:

The feeder cattle complex is rallying into Friday's noon hour as the market feels well supported by the cattle complex fundamental gains this week. With the live cattle contracts trading higher and the fed cash cattle market able to rally another $2.00 to $4.00 higher this week, feeders are seeing ample support. October feeders are steady at $246.90, November feeders are up $0.55 at $245.57 and January feeders are up $0.52 at $239.27. Some of the deferred cattle contracts are trading slightly lower, but at this point, the market's nearby contracts aren't pressured.

LEAN HOGS:

Following Thursday's Quarterly Hogs and Pigs Report, the lean hog complex is continuing to trade lower as traders are concerned about pork demand amid a 5% increase compared to a year ago on hogs weighing 180 pounds or more. Thankfully today's midday carcass prices are indeed higher, but traders are concerned that that won't be the trend moving forward as front-end supplies of market-ready hogs are exuberant which will likely cause the carcass prices to fall and cash prices as well. And because of those fears and concerns, traders are letting the contracts drift lower into Friday afternoon. October lean hogs are down $0.30 at $81.72, December lean hogs are down $1.00 at $72.95 and February lean hogs are down $0.67 at $77.20.

The projected lean hog index for 9/26/2024 is down $0.04 at $84.03 and the actual index for 9/25/2024 is up $0.02 at $84.07. Hog prices are lower on the Daily Direct Morning Hog Report, down $1.16 with a weighted average price of $76.60, ranging from $76.00 to $77.00 on 2,206 head and a five-day rolling average of $76.29. Pork cutouts total 206.07 loads with 191.68 loads of pork cuts and 14.39 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: up $1.19, $95.83.

Friday Morning Livestock Market Update - Hog Futures May See Further Weakness

GENERAL COMMENTS:

Cattle futures were higher Thursday with front-month October posting the greatest gain. Traders anticipated cash cattle could trade at least steady this week and were rewarded as packers stepped up aggressively. Northern dressed cattle traded as much at $4.00 higher while Southern live cattle traded $2.00 higher. This was a win for feedlots as their persistence paid off. This should provide further support to the futures market. Weekly export sales did not provide support as sales were 38% below a week ago. Boxed beef prices continue the lower trend with choice down $1.80 and select down $0.91.

Hog futures were under pressure but rebounded nicely from the lows during Thursday. It will be interesting to see how much of the Quarterly Hogs & Pigs report is factored in. Much of the report was considered neutral with all hogs and pigs on Sept.r 1 at 100% of a year ago. Hogs kept for breeding was 98%. Kept for marketing was 101%. These were close to trade estimates. The only real concern for the market was for hogs weighing from 120-179 pounds as that category was 103% compared to last year and hogs weighing over 180 pounds at 105% of last year. The packers remained aggressive Thursday with the National Direct Afternoon Hog report showing cash up $1.14. Pork cutouts were also supportive with values up $0.54.

	BULL SIDE		BEAR SIDE
1)	Cash cattle trading $2.00 to $4.00 higher should further support the market, keeping the uptrend intact.	1)	Slower beef export sales leave more beef available for the domestic market. This may put some pressure on the market along with slower consumer demand.
2)	Packers did not have many cattle purchased ahead of time and needed to be more aggressive in procuring the cattle they needed. Likely they may not buy many cattle for deferred delivery again this week.	2)	Boxed beef continues to show weakness, even though packers have slowed slaughter. Cattle weights are higher keeping more beef available to the market.
3)	Even though hog futures closed lower Thursday, the uptrend remains intact. The lows were rejected with contracts bouncing back into the close.	3)	The Hogs & Pigs report indicated more hogs will be available to the market over the next few months which may keep the packers less aggressive as those hogs will need to be marketed.
4)	Higher cash prices and higher pork cutouts may provide sufficient support to the market to overcome any bearishness from the Hogs & Pigs report.	4)	Hog futures are overbought and may settle back further ahead of the weekend as it is nearing the end of the month and end of the quarter.

Thursday Closing Livestock Market Update - Cash Cattle Prices Jump $2.00 to $4.00 Higher

GENERAL COMMENTS:

It was an exhilarating day for the cattle complex as feedlot managers successfully pushed the cash market $2.00 to $4.00 higher. Meanwhile, the lean hog complex wasn't as fruitful as traders withdrew from the market ahead of the Quarterly report. December corn is down 2 cents per bushel and December soybean meal is down $1.40. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 260.36 points.

Thursday's export report stated that beef net sales of 10,100 mt for 2024 were down 35% from the previous week and 34% from the prior 4-week average. The three largest buyers were China (2,100 mt), Japan (1,700 mt) and Mexico (1,600 mt). Pork net sales of 28,000 mt for 2024 were down 3% from the previous week and 8% from the prior 4-week average. The three largest buyers were Mexico (13,000 mt), Canada (3,300 mt) and China (2,700 mt).

Thursday's Cold Storage Report shared that total red meat supplies in freezers were down 1% from the previous month and down 2% from last year. Total pounds of beef in freezers were down 2% from the previous month and down slightly from last year. Frozen pork supplies were up slightly from the previous month but down 3% from last year. Stocks of pork bellies were down 39% from last month and down 30% from last year.

LIVE CATTLE:

I originally thought that seeing steady cash cattle prices would be a victory for feedlot managers this week as last week they pushed the market $2.00 to $4.00 higher, but low and behold, they did it again! Throughout the day Southern trade was marked at mostly $185 live which is $2.00 higher than last week's weighted average, and Northern dressed sales were noted at mostly $294 which is $4.00 higher than last week's weighted average. The recent advancement in the cash market really

It builds a strong case that packers are somewhat short-bought and even though the Cattle on Feed report claims that we have more cattle on feed than a year ago, packers are paying up and need more cattle. Regardless of the reason, feedlot managers deserve a round of applause in their strategic marketing this week because if they hadn't waited until late in the week and been committed to trying to advance the market, prices wouldn't have traded higher. And thankfully the cash cattle market's higher trend helped encourage traders and consequently led the futures market to a higher close as well. October live cattle closed $1.05 higher at $184.10, December live cattle closed $0.50 higher at $184.82 and February live cattle closed $0.15 higher at $185.65. 

Thursday's slaughter is estimated at 124,000 head -- 2,000 head more than a week ago and steady with a year ago.

Boxed beef prices closed lower: choice down $1.80 ($296.37) and select down $0.91 ($282.37) with a movement of 157 loads (67.16 loads of choice, 31.05 loads of select, 23.73 loads of trim and 35.31 loads of ground beef).

FRIDAY'S CATTLE CALL: Steady. Given that prices have developed in both regions now, the week's trend is likely set.

FEEDER CATTLE:

The feeder cattle complex grinded higher all through Thursday's trade and was elated to see the fed cash cattle market trade $2.00 to $4.00 higher as that was the fundamental boost that traders needed to feel confident about their upward trend. October feeders closed $0.90 higher at $246.92, November feeders closed $0.92 higher at $244.97 and January feeders closed $0.22 higher at $238.75. Given that the market was indeed able to see fed cash cattle prices trade higher this week -- the market should be able to keep this strong tone through Friday's end. At the Winter Livestock Auction in Dodge City, Kansas, compared to last week feeder steers under 500 pounds sold $10.00 higher, while steers weighing 500 to 700 pounds traded $3.00 to $7.00 higher and steers over 750 pounds sold $5.00 to $9.00 stronger. Heifers under 500 pounds sold $4.00 higher, heifers weighing 500 to 700 pounds sold $3.00 to $8.00 higher and heifers over 700 pounds sold $2.00 to $6.00 stronger. Feeder cattle supply over 600 pounds was 76%. The CME feeder cattle index 9/25/2024: down $0.10, $244.20.

LEAN HOGS:

Traders were right to be skeptical about the afternoon's Quarterly Hogs and Pigs report as the marketing data was alarming. The total number of hogs weighing 180 pounds or more totaled 13,014,000 head which is up 5% compared to a year ago, and hogs weighing 120 to 179 pounds totaled 14,997,000 head which is up 3% compared to a year ago. The market closed before the report was unveiled, but it's likely that traders react poorly to the data as front-end supplies are burdensome to the market. October lean hogs closed $0.45 lower at $82.02, December lean hogs closed $0.97 lower at $73.92 and February lean hogs closed $0.80 lower at $77.82. It was supportive, however, to see afternoon pork cutout prices close higher as the only cut that printed a lower end was the butt (down $1.32) but otherwise all the other cuts ended the day higher. Hog prices closed higher on the Daily Direct Afternoon Hog Report, up $1.14 with a weighted average price of $78.18 on 2,820 head. Pork cutouts totaled 294.76 loads with 266.70 loads of pork cuts and 28.05 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: up $0.54, $95.65. Thursday's slaughter is estimated at 486,000 head -- 23,000 head more than a week ago and steady with a year ago. The CME lean hog index 9/24/2024: down $0.16, $84.05.

FRIDAY'S HOG CALL: Lower. Given that packers have been active in the cash market throughout the earlier part of the week, it's likely that they'll show little to no interest in the cash hog market on Friday.

Thursday Midday Livestock Market Summary - Live Cattle Rally While Hogs Drift Lower Ahead of Quarterly Report

GENERAL COMMENTS:

Traders are really pushing the lean hog complex lower ahead of the afternoon's Quarterly Hogs and Pigs report as pre-report nervousness runs rampant throughout the hog complex. Some early sales are currently being reported in the South at $185 live which is $2.00 higher than last week's weighted average. December corn is down 3/4 cent per bushel and December soybean meal is down $1.00. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 239.72 points.

Thursday's export report stated that beef net sales of 10,100 mt for 2024 were down 35% from the previous week and 34% from the prior 4-week average. The three largest buyers were China (2,100 mt), Japan (1,700 mt) and Mexico (1,600 mt). Pork net sales of 28,000 mt for 2024 were down 3% from the previous week and 8% from the prior 4-week average. The three largest buyers were Mexico (13,000 mt), Canada (3,300 mt) and China (2,700 mt).

LIVE CATTLE:

The live cattle complex is rallying into Thursday's noon hour as traders are elated to see early sales being reported in the South at $185, which is $2.00 higher than last week's weighted average. Still no sales have been made in the North, but asking prices are firm for dressed cattle at $295. October live cattle are up $0.60 at $183.65, December live cattle are up $0.37 at $184.70 and February live cattle are up $0.07 at $185.52. It is disappointing to see midday boxed beef prices lower as there seems to be some consumer pullback from the meat counter because if anything prices from a supply and demand perspective prices should be a tick higher this week as packers have reduced throughput which limits some supply and theoretically should push prices higher. But with the market seeing the opposite, one must wonder if consumers are spending the grocery budget elsewhere for meat as inflation continues to a be distressing problem for most Americans.

Boxed beef prices are lower: choice down $1.53 ($296.64) and select down $0.35 ($282.93) with a movement of 83 loads (26.04 loads of choice, 19.50 loads of select, 7.72 loads of trim and 30.15 loads of ground beef).

FEEDER CATTLE:

Even though the live cattle complex is trading mostly higher, the feeder cattle complex is trading in a more reserved manner as traders seem to be pumping the brakes until more fundamental support surfaces from the fed cash cattle market. October feeders are down $0.07 at $245.95, November feeders are down $0.17 at $243.87 and January feeders are down $0.75 at $237.77. But given the market's recent gains in the futures complex, seeing a slight pull-back as traders merely catch their breath, it's all that surprising.

LEAN HOGS:

The lean hog complex is trading lower as the market braces for this afternoon's Quarterly Hogs and Pigs report. October lean hogs are down $0.95 at $81.52, December lean hogs are down $2.00 at $72.90 and February lean hogs are down $1.92 at $76.72. The market's reaction ahead of the USDA report seems a little overdone given that pork cutout values are higher and given that the cash market is seeing more interest than assumed for a Thursday. But as always, traders typically act unnervingly ahead of any big USDA report unveiling.

The projected lean hog index for 9/25/2024 is up $0.02 at $84.07 and the actual index for 9/24/2024 is down $0.16 at $84.05. Hog prices are higher on the Daily Direct Morning Hog Report, up $1.43 with a weighted average price of $77.76, ranging from $72.00 to $80.00 on 1,580 head and a five-day rolling average of $76.48. Pork cutouts total 182.35 loads with 168.84 loads of pork cuts and 13.51 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: up $0.30, $94.40.

Thursday Morning Livestock Market Update - Traders Find Little to Get Excited About

GENERAL COMMENTS:

Cattle traders did not have much to go on, leaving Wednesday's trading activity lethargic. The focus is on the cash market and what the packers must do to purchase cattle. They did not purchase many ahead for deferred delivery last week, leaving them in a position that they may need to be aggressive. However, the weakness of boxed beef is a cause for concern as it indicates demand remains slower than desired. The packers do not have much profit margin and will try to do what they can to maintain what little they have. Boxed beef prices Wednesday took a hit with choice down $3.72 and select down $3.59. It will be up to feedlots whether they want to hold cattle over for another week or if they will be content with steady prices.

The pattern of higher lows and higher highs in hogs was broken Wednesday as traders did not see much to get excited over and there was some positioning ahead of the Quarterly Hogs & Pigs report to be released after the close Thursday. The report is not expected to show any surprises, but traders will position themselves ahead of the report anyway. Reports always have the potential for surprising numbers. The National Direct Afternoon Hog report showed cash up $0.50 with a good amount of hogs sold. Cutout values showed a small gain of $0.14. The Quarterly Hogs & Pigs report will be released Thursday afternoon. The average estimate for all hogs and pigs on Sept. 1 is 100.5% with the range of 99.9% to 101.6%. Hogs kept for breeding at 97.6% with a range of 97.2% to 98.0%. Hogs kept for marketing at 100.8% with a range of 100.2% to 101.6%.

	BULL SIDE		BEAR SIDE
1)	There are some expectations feedlots may hold out for higher cash and if they do not receive it, they will hold cattle over for another week. Packers would need to step up if they need to purchase cattle.	1)	Boxed beef prices fell significantly Wednesday, showing continued weakness in demand.
2)	Cattle futures continue to hold gains in the expectation beef demand will improve through the end of the year.	2)	Weekly beef export sales are expected to be lower than last week due to international demand not being as good as hoped for this time of year.
3)	Fund traders hold a large net-long position in hog futures and a neutral or friendly report may increase buying interest.	3)	Hog weights remain 3.1 pounds above a year ago. Weekly pork production for the June through August quarter is estimated to be up at least 3.0% from last year.
4)	Weekly average hog weights have declined by 0.1 pounds to an average of 283.4 pounds. This is not much but weights are moving in the right direction.	4)	Hog futures may trade lower as traders prepare for the Quarterly Hogs & Pigs report. They do not want to be overly exposed into the report.

Wednesday Closing Livestock Market Update - Traders Pull Away from the Hog Complex Ahead of Thursday's Quarterly Hogs and Pigs Report

GENERAL COMMENTS:

The livestock complex closed mixed Wednesday afternoon as the feeder cattle complex closed higher without much fight, but the live cattle and lean hog markets faced a little more hesitancy from traders. No cash cattle trade has developed but asking prices are noted in the South at $185 and packer interest will likely increase on Thursday. December corn is up 3 1/2 cents per bushel and December soybean meal is up $2.30. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 293.47 points.

LIVE CATTLE:

The live cattle complex closed mixed with the spot October and nearby December live cattle contracts closing slightly lower while the rest of the contracts maintained their higher tone through the day's end. It was discouraging to see boxed beef prices dip lower and especially to see choice cuts dive below $300. One would think with packers pulling back chain speeds that boxed beef prices would be inching higher as supplies slowly become tighter, but maybe consumers are feeling the pinch of our economy more than assumed. October live cattle closed $0.15 lower at $183.05, December live cattle closed $0.07 lower at $184.32, and February live cattle closed $0.07 higher at $185.50. The cash cattle market didn't see any action throughout the day as packers and feedlot managers again go toe-to-toe. Feedlot managers are hoping to see the market trade steady (which would be commendable) given that packers have cut throughput this week to lessen their immediate need of the cash market. Packer interest will likely increase on Thursday, but trade could be delayed until Friday just like it was last week. Asking prices are noted in the South at $185 but are still not established in the North. 

Wednesday's slaughter is estimated at 120,000 head -- 5,000 head less than a week ago and 6,000 head less than a year ago.

Boxed beef prices closed lower: choice down $3.72 ($298.17) and select down $3.59 ($283.28) with a movement of 171 loads (100.72 loads of choice, 21.22 loads of select, 14.58 loads of trim and 34.50 loads of ground beef).

THURSDAY'S CATTLE CALL: Steady. Even though packers have reduced chain speeds this past week, it's likely that some feedlot managers will elect to roll over this week's offering to next week as opposed to selling them cheaper as front-end supplies are current.

FEEDER CATTLE:

The feeder cattle complex wasn't alarmed that some of the nearby live cattle contracts pulled back ahead of the day's end, as the entire feeder cattle market closed higher Wednesday afternoon. October feeders closed $0.22 higher at $246.02, November feeders closed $0.65 higher at $244.05 and January feeders closed $0.40 higher at $238.52. All in all, feeder cattle demand in the countryside is holding up well even as the fall run gets underway. What seems to be most concerning for buyers at this point with some regions still experiencing hot temperatures is that of unweaned calves as the nights are cool, but days are hot which can stress a calf easily and usually takes them longer to get on feed. At Hub City Livestock Auction in Aberdeen, South Dakota compared to last week steers weighing 850 to 1,049 pounds sold $3.00 to $5.00 higher with instances up to $7.00 higher on those weighing 850 to 899 pounds. The best test on heifers was on those weighing 800 to 849 pounds and those weighing 950 to 999 pounds – both of which traded steady. Feeder cattle supply over 600 pounds was 100%. The CME feeder cattle index 9/24/2024: up $0.28, $244.30.

LEAN HOGS:

The lean hog complex had ample enough support and on a regular day it's likely that the market would have closed slightly higher -- but with the Quarterly Hogs and Pigs Report set to be released Thursday afternoon, traders pulled away from the market ever so slightly throughout Wednesday's trade. October lean hogs closed $0.35 higher at $82.47, December lean hogs closed $0.07 lower at $74.90, and February lean hogs closed $0.07 lower at $78.62. No wild price swings were seen throughout the afternoon's cutout report, which hopefully means that consumers will continue to be diligent buyers throughout the remainder of the week. Hog prices closed higher on the Daily Direct Afternoon Hog Report, up $0.50 with a weighted average price of $77.04 on 6,823 head. Pork cutouts totaled 314.90 loads with 280.32 loads of pork cuts and 34.57 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: up $0.14, $94.10. Wednesday's slaughter is estimated at 486,000 head -- 7,000 head more than a week ago and 2,000 head less than a year ago. The CME lean hog index 9/23/2024: down $0.08, $84.21.

THURSDAY'S HOG CALL: Lower. With packers now likely having secured enough supplies in the cash market for the bulk of their needs this week, it's likely that prices will trend lower on Thursday and Friday.

Wednesday Midday Livestock Market Summary - Traders Pull Back Some of their Support for the Complex

GENERAL COMMENTS:

The livestock complex is seeing mixed interest from traders as the feeder cattle market is still trading higher, but live cattle are mixed, and the lean hog complex is trading mostly lower into Wednesday's noon hour. Still, the cash cattle market hasn't seen any trade develop and it won't likely until Thursday or Friday. December corn is up 2 cents per bushel and December soybean meal is down $1.00. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 221.80 points.

LIVE CATTLE:

The live cattle complex is trading mostly higher into Wednesday's noon hour as traders continue to believe in the market's fundamental footing even though the cash cattle market has yet to trade this week. Because the cash cattle market hasn't shown its cards just yet, both the October and December 2024 contracts are trading slightly lower, but besides those two contracts, the market is trading fully higher. Asking prices have been noted at $185 in the South, but no bids have surfaced from packers, and it's assumed at this point that no trade will develop until Thursday or Friday. Packers and feedlot managers will again go toe-to-toe this week as both want different outcomes for this week's market. October live cattle are down $0.35 at $182.85, December live cattle are down $0.07 at $184.32 and February live cattle are up $0.02 at $185.45.

Boxed beef prices are lower: choice down $0.88 ($301.01) and select down $1.64 ($285.23) with a movement of 94 loads (60.74 loads of choice, 11.76 loads of select, 9.04 loads of trim and 12.60 loads of ground beef).

FEEDER CATTLE:

Even though the live cattle complex is trading mixed with its nearby contracts pulling back slightly while the deferred contracts continue to rally, the feeder cattle market seems unphased as its contracts rally with no concern. October feeders are up $0.45 at $246.25, November feeders are up $0.95 at $244.35 and January feeders are up $0.70 at $238.82. And with the market in no immediate fear of reaching any resistance pressure, the complex should be able to continue its upward trend thanks to the added support of continued strong buyer demand in the countryside.

LEAN HOGS:

Just as expected, the lean hog market is pulling back ever so slightly as traders note the release of Thursday's Quarterly Hogs and Pigs Report. And it's likely that this sheepish, uncertain tone could linger throughout the hog complex until Friday after traders have time to process the USDA's report. Yes, midday pork cutout values are slightly higher, but given that consumer demand hasn't been all that supportive throughout the earlier part of the week, traders aren't seeming to put too much clout in today's midday morning up of $0.36. October lean hogs are up $0.22 at $82.35, December lean hogs are down $0.35 at $74.62 and February lean hogs are down $0.27 at $78.40.

The projected lean hog index for 9/24/2024 is down $0.16 at $84.05, and the actual index for 9/23/2024 is down $0.08 at $84.21. Hog prices are higher on the Daily Direct Morning Hog Report, up $1.39 with a weighted average price of $76.33, ranging from $72.00 to $80.00 on 4,201 head and a five-day rolling average of $76.23. Pork cutouts total 175.71 loads with 148.41 loads of pork cuts and 27.31 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: up $0.36, $94.32.

Wednesday Morning Livestock Market Update - Traders Begin to Position Ahead of Hogs and Pigs Report

GENERAL COMMENTS:

Live cattle futures were able to hold recent gains Tuesday. Last week, the neutral Cattle on Feed report and higher cash trade provided confidence to traders that higher prices may continue to unfold. The drawback may be the uncertainty of boxed beef prices. Boxed beef on Tuesday finished the day mixed with choice up $0.08 and select down $0.92. The packers have reduced chain speed to improve margins, but that has not helped very much. Bids or offers have not been posted so far this week and feedlots may want to see if Wednesday will show higher futures, giving them confidence to hold for higher prices.

Hog futures posted higher highs and higher lows for the seventh consecutive day Wednesday. Traders anticipate stronger prices through the end of the year and have been establishing long positions despite the variability of cash and cutouts. According to the National Direct Afternoon Hog report, packers purchased a substantial number of hogs on Tuesday at $1.53 higher. Cutouts were down $0.18 with no category of cuts showing significant gains or losses. Packers may not be as aggressive in the cash market Wednesday, but they may bid higher to procure a further supply of hogs for the week. The Quarterly Hogs & Pigs report will be released Thursday. The average estimate for all hogs and pigs on Sept. 1 is 100.5%, kept for breeding at 97.6%, and kept for marketing at 100.8%.

	BULL SIDE		BEAR SIDE
1)	Cattle futures made new highs again before settling back Tuesday. Futures have made impressive gains with traders optimistic over higher prices.	1)	Cattle weights continue to increase with a gain of 3.1 pounds last week to an average of 915.7 pounds. Cattle weights generally increase into November.
2)	The cattle herd has not been rebuilding and should remain supported for the foreseeable future. Strong heifer retention has not been taking place.	2)	Cattle futures are overbought and due for a price correction. The market has steady cash factored in, which may limit the upside.
3)	Traders have been adding to their long positions with the idea that pork demand will remain strong and hog supplies will remain current.	3)	Hog futures will need to see support from cash and cutouts or the market will run out of steam to the upside.
4)	The packers may need to be aggressive Wednesday to procure more hogs for the week.	4)	Traders may begin to position themselves ahead of the Hogs & Pigs report, leaving a choppy market and possibly some liquidation.

Tuesday Closing Livestock Market Update - Traders Push the Complex Higher

GENERAL COMMENTS:

With all three of the livestock markets able to end the day higher yet again, Tuesday's market was fruitful for the livestock complex. No bids or asking prices developed in the cash cattle market as trade will likely be delayed until Thursday or Friday. December corn is down 1 3/4 cents per bushel and December soybean meal is down $2.80. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 36.50 points.

LIVE CATTLE:

The live cattle complex started the day out hesitant, but by noon traders were again back to fully supporting the live cattle complex as they saw the midmorning's higher boxed beef prices which gave them just enough confidence to continue to support the market through the day's end. October live cattle closed $0.05 lower at $183.20, December live cattle closed $0.57 higher at $184.40 and February live cattle closed $0.57 higher at $185.42. Every day that the market closes above its 100-day moving average is a positive signal given to the greater marketplace that the tone throughout the cattle complex is indeed bullish. Still no cash cattle sales have been reported, and it's likely that again this week the market will wait to trade until Thursday or Friday as feedlot managers and packers will go toe to toe. 

Tuesday's slaughter is estimated at 125,000 head – steady with a week ago and 3,000 head less than a year ago.

Boxed beef prices closed mixed: choice up $0.08 ($301.89) and select down $0.92 ($286.87) with a movement of 140 loads (92.90 loads of choice, 26.31 loads of select, 4.69 loads of trim and 15.82 loads of ground beef).

WEDNESDAY'S CATTLE CALL: Steady. Given that packers are operating with thin margins, it's likely that they'll cut processing back to avoid the cash cattle market from trading higher.

FEEDER CATTLE:

It was another rallying day for the feeder cattle complex as the market yet again crept higher throughout the day's trade. Thanks to the continued support of the live cattle market's higher trend, and to supportive buying action in the countryside, the feeder cattle complex had no issue trekking higher through Tuesday's end. October feeders are up $1.32 at $245.80, November feeders are up $0.65 at $243.40 and January feeders are up $0.35 at $238.12. At Sioux Falls Regional Cattle Auction in Worthing, South Dakota, compared to last week, steers weighing 850 to 900 pounds sold $3.00 to $4.00 lower, steers weighing 950 pounds sold mostly $1.00 to $3.00 higher. Heifers weighing 650 pounds traded $8.00 higher, heifers weighing 750 pounds sold $2.00 lower and heifers weighing between 800 and 900 pounds sold steady to $3.00 higher. The CME feeder cattle index 9/23/2024: up $0.52, $244.02.

LEAN HOGS:

The lean hog complex was also able to round out the day higher as ample trader support kept the complex in its upward trend. October lean hogs closed $0.17 lower at $82.12, December lean hogs closed $0.10 higher at $74.97 and February lean hogs closed $0.30 higher at $78.70. Packers were more aggressive in the cash market, which also added some support, and unfortunately because of packer submission issues, we can't see closing pork cutout values. Heading into Wednesday's trade some trader hesitancy could be noted as on Thursday afternoon the Quarterly Hogs and Pigs report will be released. Hog prices closed higher on the Daily Direct Afternoon Hog Report, up $1.53 with a weighted average price of $76.54 on 12,181 head. Pork cutouts are unavailable due to packer submission issues. Tuesday's slaughter is estimated at 487,000 head -- 14,000 head more than a week ago and 3,000 head less than a year ago. The CME lean hog index 9/20/2024: down $0.7, $84.29.

WEDNESDAY'S HOG CALL: Steady. Packers were aggressive in Tuesday's cash market as over 12,000 head sold -- but even so it's likely that they'll need to buy somewhat aggressively on Wednesday to avoid being short bought for the week.

Tuesday Midday Livestock Market Summary - Traders Continue to Push Contracts Higher

GENERAL COMMENTS:

The livestock complex is trading fully higher into Tuesday's noon hour as traders continue to advance the markets. It is helping traders' cause that both midday pork cutout values and boxed beef prices are higher as traders are yearning to see fundamental support following their big technical moves over the last 10 days. December corn is down 1/2 cent per bushel and December soybean meal is down $1.70. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 4.99 points.

LIVE CATTLE:

The market may have started off the day hesitantly, but now that the noon hour is quickly approaching, the entire live cattle complex is higher. October live cattle are up $0.12 at $183.35, December live cattle are up $0.57 at $184.40, and February live cattle are up $0.72 at $185.60. It's helpful for traders to see midday boxed beef prices higher as it's too early for the cash cattle market to lend any support. Cash trade won't likely develop until Thursday or Friday. Feedlot managers are again going to aim for higher prices and would likely be OK with steady money as last week's market traded $2.00 to $4.00 higher. But packers are going to be hard to negotiate with as their main aim is to keep feedlot managers from gaining any leverage. Bids and asking prices are elusive at this point.

Boxed beef prices are higher: choice up $0.98 ($302.79) and select up $0.77 ($288.56) with a movement of 84 loads (59.35 loads of choice, 15.49 loads of select, zero loads of trim and 9.65 loads of ground beef).

FEEDER CATTLE:

Upon seeing the live cattle market turn its direction and again head higher, the feeder cattle complex has hopped on board and is also trading higher. October feeders are up $0.70 at $245.17, November feeders are up $0.62 at $243.37, and January feeders are up $0.25 at $238.02. So long as the live cattle complex continues to signal technical support and comfortability, feeders will likely continue to trend higher as they're far from any resistance points and have seen moderate demand in the countryside for feeders despite the fall run of calves and feeders already happening.

LEAN HOGS:

The lean hog complex is continuing to grind higher as traders are pleased to see midday pork cutout values higher. Demand will continue to be a key point for the market moving forward, especially given that traders have aggressively advanced the market over the last month. Do note that on Thursday the USDA will be releasing the latest Quarterly Hogs and Pigs report. which could cause the futures complex to pull back ever so slightly ahead of that report. October lean hogs are down $0.07 at $82.22, December lean hogs are up $0.12 at $75.00, and February lean hogs are up $0.25 at $78.65.

The projected CME Lean Hog Index for 9/23/2024 is down $0.08 at $84.21, and the actual index for 9/20/2024 is down $0.07 at $84.29. Hog prices are lower on the Daily Direct Morning Hog Report, down $0.38 with a weighted average price of $74.94, ranging from $72.00 to $76.00 on 2,008 head and a five-day rolling average of $76.15. Pork cutouts total 176.87 loads with 154.02 loads of pork cuts and 22.85 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: up $0.47, $94.61.

Tuesday Morning Livestock Market Update - Further Gains May Be Limited

GENERAL COMMENTS:

Cattle futures continue to increase as the mood of the traders has changed. The weakness that took place as feedlots moved cattle at lower prices during the summer seems to have ended. That does not mean futures will regain all they have lost, but the trader optimism has pushed the market substantially higher from the lows, regaining 62% of the losses seen this summer. The early anticipation is for steady cash this week with trade likely delayed as feedlots will hold due to the packers having limited cattle purchased for deffered delivery. However, the slaughter pace has slowed considerably to improve boxed beef prices, but that has had limited effect. Boxed beef prices were mixed Monday with choice up $1.62 and select down $0.80. Feeder cattle futures kept pace with live cattle being neither a leader nor a follower.

Hog futures continued to increase as the momentum of the uptrend kept buying active. The underlying cash and cutouts have not been overly supportive, but traders have been active buyers. Hog weights are higher than a year ago and slaughter is higher, indicating strong demand. However, cash and cutouts have not been trending higher as higher slaughter leaves the market sufficiently supplied. The National Direct Afternoon Hog report showed cash down $1.87 with limited activity. Pork cutouts declined by $0.01. Packers may be more aggressive Tuesday due to limited cash activity Monday.

	BULL SIDE		BEAR SIDE
1)	The trend is up in cattle and technical traders continue to trade the trend. The summer slump in demand may be finished.	1)	Boxed beef prices have not indicated that demand has improved from what it had been much of the summer. This may limit upside price potential.
2)	Feedlots may not be content with steady cash this week and will hold for higher prices. Harvesting may be more important than selling cattle.	2)	Cattle weights remain higher than a year ago with more beef available from fewer animals. Reduced slaughter has not tightened supply and supported boxed beef prices very much.
3)	Hog slaughter continues to outpace the previous year as overall pork demand is strong. The market is absorbing quite a bit of pork.	3)	Hog numbers remain sufficient with packers not having to chase after them and raise prices.
4)	The trend is up in hog futures, which keeps traders actively buying and prices increasing.	4)	Hog futures are overbought and may have a price retracement as traders decide to take some profits.

Monday Closing Livestock Market Update - Entire Complex Higher

GENERAL COMMENTS:

It was a fruitful day for the livestock complex as all three of the markets closed higher by the day's end thanks to ample trader interest. Once again, this week consumer demand will be key for both the cattle and hog markets as traders need to see stable consumer demand. December corn is up 11 3/4 cents per bushel and December soybean meal is up $9.50. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 55.99 points.

LIVE CATTLE:

It was another impressive day for the live cattle complex as the market was able to maintain its position above the market's 100-day moving average. October live cattle closed $0.77 higher at $183.25, December live cattle closed $0.62 higher at $183.82 and February live cattle closed $1.07 higher at $184.85. Monitoring the market's 100-day moving average and seeing the spot December contract remain above that threshold will be significant this week as any close below that price point will indicate technical weakness and the potential of a retreat. The market's next closest resistance point is that $188 which is where the market plateaued in July. New showlists appear to be mixed, higher in Texas, somewhat higher in Kansas, but lower in Nebraska/Colorado. Monday's slaughter is estimated at 107,000 head -- 14,000 head less than a week ago and 18,000 head less than a year ago.

Last week Northern dressed cattle traded for mostly $290 to $292 which is $2.00 to $4.00 higher than the previous week's weighted average. Southern live cattle traded for mostly $183 which is $2.00 to $3.00 higher than the previous week's weighted average. Last week's negotiated cash cattle trade totaled 86,956 head. Of that 89% (77,210 head) were committed to the nearby delivery, while the remaining 11% (9,746 head) were committed to the deferred delivery.

Boxed beef prices closed mixed: choice up $1.62 ($301.81) and select down $0.80 ($287.79) with a movement of 97 loads (58.12 loads of choice, 21.15 loads of select, 3.99 loads of trim and 13.54 loads of ground beef).

TUESDAY'S CATTLE CALL: Steady. Given that feedlots are extremely current, I believe that they should be able to hold the market at least steady this upcoming week.

FEEDER CATTLE:

With the continued support of the live cattle market's higher trend, the feeder cattle complex didn't have any issues closing higher Monday afternoon. October feeders closed $0.57 higher at $244.47, November feeders closed $0.97 higher at $242.75 and November feeders closed $0.97 higher at $242.75. So long as the live cattle complex continues to pave the way for feeders to trade higher, the market shouldn't have any issue doing so. At Oklahoma National Stockyards in Oklahoma City, Oklahoma, compared to last week and at their midsession point steers and heifers over 650 pounds were trading unevenly steady. Steers and heifers under 650 pounds were selling $1.00 to $5.00 lower. But the auction report did note that with a cool front spanning across the state and night temperatures dipping down into the 50-degree range would make getting unweaned calves started on feed difficult. The CME feeder cattle index 9/20/2024: up $0.24, $243.50.

LEAN HOGS:

The lean hog complex was also able to round out Monday's trade on a higher note as thankfully even though both pork cutout values and cash prices closed lower, traders supported the complex through the day's end. October lean hogs closed $0.07 higher at $82.30, December lean hogs closed $0.65 higher at $74.87 and February lean hogs closed $0.85 higher at $78.40. I was surprised to see that with the belly's $5.51 gain that the carcass price wasn't able to close higher, but the mixture of the lower closes in the ham, picnic, loin and butt collectively outweighed the gain in the belly and rib combined. Hog prices closed lower on the Daily Direct Afternoon Hog Report, down $1.87 with a weighted average price of $75.01 on 735 head. Pork cutouts totaled 311.79 loads with 267.47 loads of pork cuts and 44.31 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: down $0.01, $94.14.

Monday's slaughter is estimated at 487,000 head -- 12,000 head more than a week ago and 17,000 head more than a week ago. The CME lean hog index 9/19/2024: down $0.02, $84.36.

TUESDAY'S HOG CALL: Higher. Given that Monday's cash market saw virtually no interest, it's likely that packers will need to be more aggressive on Monday.

Monday Midday Livestock Market Summary - Traders Push the Complex Higher

GENERAL COMMENTS:

It's been a prosperous Monday for the livestock complex as all three markets are trading higher into the day's noon hour. As the contracts charge to higher price points, seeing continued fundamental demand will remain crucial. December corn is up 11 1/4 cents per bushel and December soybean meal is up $9.50. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 17.98 points.

LIVE CATTLE:

The live cattle complex is keeping with its aggressive, upward trend as the market continues to embark on territory not last traded at since the market's plummet early in August. Trader's ambitions remain strong as they continue to push the spot December contract higher and have thus far kept the complex trading above the market's 100-day moving average. And seeing that packers only got a mere 9,746 head bought last week for the deferred delivery option, there's a strong chance that cash cattle prices could hold steady/if not trade a little higher, again this week. October live cattle are up $0.75 at $183.22, December live cattle are up $0.60 at $183.80 and February live cattle are up $1.20 at $185.00.

Last week Northern dressed cattle traded for mostly $290 to $292 which is $2.00 to $4.00 higher than the previous week's weighted average. Southern live cattle traded for mostly $183 which is $2.00 to $3.00 higher than the previous week's weighted average. Last week's negotiated cash cattle trade totaled 86,956 head. Of that 89% (77,210 head) were committed to the nearby delivery, while the remaining 11% (9,746 head) were committed to the deferred delivery.

Boxed beef prices are higher: choice up $1.44 ($301.63) and select up $0.33 ($288.92) with a movement of 37 loads (24.62 loads of choice, 6.87 loads of select, 3.04 loads of trim and 2.85 loads of ground beef).

FEEDER CATTLE:

The feeder cattle complex has posted a rather impressive rally thus far through Monday's trade as traders haven't seemed concerned one bit with Friday's Cattle on Feed report. Instead, traders seem more encouraged than anything by the fed cattle market's $2.00 to $4.00 jump last week, and by the fact that there's ample room technically to trade as traders continue to support both the feeder cattle and live cattle contracts and both markets have taken on key resistance points over the last ten days. October feeders are up $1.02 at $244.92, November feeders are up $0.80 at $242.57 and January feeders are up $1.00 at $237.77.

LEAN HOGS:

Even though morning pork cutout values are lower, the lean hog complex is again trading higher into the day's noon hour. October lean hogs are steady at $82.22, December lean hogs are up $0.55 at $74.77 and February lean hogs are up $0.75 at $78.30. Consumer demand was mixed last week, and if demand continues to be lackluster, packers could begin to reduce throughput.

The projected lean hog index for 9/20/2024 is down $0.07 at $84.29, and the actual index for 9/19/2024 is down $0.02 at $84.36. Hog prices are lower on the Daily Direct Morning Hog Report, down $3.13 with a weighted average price of $75.32, ranging from $72.00 to $77.50 on 500 head and a five-day rolling average of $76.81. Pork cutouts total 199.91 loads with 179.87 loads of pork cuts and 20.05 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: down $0.56, $93.59.

Monday Morning Livestock Market Update - Futures May See Further Support

GENERAL COMMENTS:

Live cattle futures increased during the day Friday due to the positive news of higher cash cattle trade. Northern dressed cattle traded $2.00 higher and Southern live cattle traded $2.00 to $3.00 higher. Feedlots were rewarded for holding out. This news generated buying interest from traders as futures adjusted closer to cash. Higher cash became the focus of traders rather than the caution over the Cattle on Feed report. The report was neutral with on-feed numbers at 101% compared to the estimate of 100.7%. Placements were 99% compared to the average estimate of 98.5%. Marketings were 96% compared to the average estimate of 96.6%. Boxed beef prices were higher with choice up $0.63 and select up $0.33. Feeder cattle did not share the same sentiment as live cattle with futures closing mixed Friday. The Commitments of Traders report showed fund traders reducing their long position by 545 contracts to a net long of 43,777 live cattle futures contracts. The fund traders purchased 1,738 futures contracts in feeder cattle, reducing their net-short position to 870 contracts.

Hog futures showed limited price movement Friday as traders had little new fundamental news to move the market. It was a solid week overall and traders seemed content with their positions going into the weekend. The National Direct Afternoon Hog report was surprising with cash increasing $0.61 to close the week at $76.88. Pork cutout values showed a decline of $0.66. The Hogs & Pigs report will be released Thursday, but it is too early for traders to position themselves ahead of the report. The Commitments of Traders report showed funds buying 3,160 futures contracts increasing their net-long futures position to 44,870 contracts.

	BULL SIDE		BEAR SIDE
1)	Feedlots will increase their resolve to hold for higher prices this week due to gains achieved last week.	1)	If packers purchased a significant number of cattle for deferred delivery, they may not need to be aggressive this week.
2)	The October live cattle contract closed above chart resistance Friday, which may increase buying interest of technical traders.	2)	Feeder cattle were reluctant to follow live cattle futures higher. This may indicate limited upside potential to begin the week.
3)	Hog futures closed higher for the week with minimal fanfare. Fund traders added to their net-long futures positions, indicating their confidence for higher prices.	3)	Both cash hogs and pork cutouts remain variable with the uncertainty possibly limiting upside potential.
4)	Higher cash hogs Friday are unusual, showing packers needed hogs to finish out the week. This may be an indication of stronger prices this week.	4)	Hog supplies are ample, leaving the packers with limited reason to be aggressive in the cash market.

Friday Closing Livestock Market Update - December Live Cattle Close Above the Market's 100-Day Moving Average

GENERAL COMMENTS:

It was an exhilarating day for the cattle complex as the contracts rallied through the day's end and cash cattle prices rallied $2.00 to $3.00 higher. And thankfully Friday's Cattle on Feed report will likely be found as mostly neutral for the market. December corn is down 4 cents per bushel and December soybean meal is down $2.40. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 38.17 points.

From Friday-to-Friday livestock futures scored the following changes: October live cattle up $4.82, December live cattle up $4.70; September feeder cattle up $2.93, October feeder cattle up $4.78; October lean hogs up $3.78, December lean hogs up $2.93; December corn down $0.12 and March corn down $0.11.

LIVE CATTLE:

Someone might have yelled, "Katy bar the door," because Friday was a moving and shaking day kind of day for the live cattle complex. First, the cash cattle market successfully accomplished its goal as prices traded higher in both regions. Northern cattle were sold at mostly $290 which is $2.00 higher than last week's weighted average and Southern live cattle were marked at mostly $183 which is also $2.00 to $3.00 higher than last week's weighted. Secondly, it was also encouraging for traders to not only see cash cattle prices higher but to also see boxed beef prices round out the day on a higher note as well. And lastly, the gains seen throughout the futures complex were praiseworthy as trades moved the spot December contract not only above its 40-day moving average this past week, but by Friday's close the market also had surpassed its 100-day moving average. And the last time the market traded above its 100-day moving average was before the market melt down early in August. Needless to say, Friday's market was beyond fruitful for the cattle complex -- now hopefully next week's market can continue to build on the strong energy established this past week. October live cattle closed $2.50 higher at $182.47, December live cattle closed $2.07 higher at $183.20 and February live cattle closed $1.42 higher at $183.77. 

Friday's slaughter is estimated at 108,000 head – 10,000 head less than a week ago and 5,000 head less than a year ago. Saturday's slaughter is projected to be around 9,000 head. The week's total slaughter is estimated at 610,000 head -- 10,000 head less than a week ago and 16,000 head less than a year ago.

Boxed beef prices closed higher: choice up $0.63 ($300.19) and select up $0.33 ($288.59) with a movement of 130 loads (84.30 loads of choice, 15.08 loads of select, 6.75 loads of trim and 23.81 loads of ground beef).

MONDAY'S CATTLE CALL: Steady. Much of next week's cash trade will depend on how many cattle packers got bought this past week.

FEEDER CATTLE:

It was another fruitful day for the feeder cattle complex as the market well was supported once again thanks to active demand in the countryside for feeder cattle and thanks to the roll over support from the live cattle/cash cattle market's higher trend. It was especially encouraging however to see the feeder cattle complex trade higher even though this afternoon the monthly Cattle on Feed report was released. So often traders wipe their hands of the market ahead of the COF report simply because they know that there is a chance that bearish tones could be the theme of the report's data. However, traders opted to focus on the market's profound gains this past week and thankfully the COF report didn't share any groundbreaking news either. DTN's Cattle on Feed report is available here:

October feeders closed $0.12 higher at $243.90, November feeders closed $0.42 higher at $241.77 and January feeders closed $0.65 higher at $236.77. The Oklahoma Weekly Cattle Auction Summary shared that compared to last week feeder steers and heifers traded $2.00 to $7.00 higher, but steer and heifer calves sold $2.00 to $7.00 lower. Slaughter cows sold $9.00 to $10.00 lower and slaughter bulls traded $10.00 lower. Feeder cattle supply over 600 pounds was 63%. The CME feeder cattle index 9/19/2024: down $1.16, $243.26.

LEAN HOGS:

The nearby lean hog contracts may have closed slightly lower, but the market was able to maintain its higher position through the market's deferred contract. More than anything traders' eagerness to advance the nearby contracts seemed to dwindle as the cattle complex drew more of trader's attention and interest with its ambitious gain. Not to mention, earlier in the week the market ran the spot December contract to the highest position it's traded at since early June and with pork cutout values being mixed this week, traders want to see more support before they advance the complex anymore. October lean hogs closed $0.02 lower at $82.22, December lean hogs closed $0.07 lower at $74.22 and February lean hogs closed $0.22 higher at $77.50. Hog prices closed higher on the Daily Direct Afternoon Hog Report, up $0.61 with a weighted average price of $76.88 on 2,097 head. Pork cutouts totaled 232.91 loads with 214.97 loads of pork cuts and 17.94 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: down $0.66, $94.15. Friday's slaughter is estimated at 475,000 head – 1,000 head more than a week ago and steady with a year ago. Saturday's slaughter is projected to be around 140,000 head. The CME lean hog index 9/18/2024: up $0.16, $84.38.

MONDAY'S HOG CALL: Steady. Packers will likely want to see how demand shapes up early next week before they support the cash market too wildly.

Friday Midday Livestock Market Summary - Cash Cattle Prices Jump $2.00 Higher

GENERAL COMMENTS:

With the cash cattle market noting prices $2.00 higher in both the Northern and Southern plains, both the live cattle and feeder cattle markets are rallying into Friday's noon hour. Later this afternoon the monthly Cattle on Feed report will be released which could affect trade early next week. December corn is down 3 1/4 cents per bushel and December soybean meal is down $4.70. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 31.83 points.

LIVE CATTLE:

With the cash cattle market seeing prices being reported $2.00 higher in both regions, traders are celebrating the fact that the market's fundamentals are helping add to their supportive note this week and are once again advancing the contracts higher. October live cattle are up $1.75 at $181.75, December live cattle are up $1.70 at $182.85 and February live cattle are up $1.15 at $183.55. It was just this week that the market conquered its 40-day moving average in the spot December contract, and now the market is close to nearing its 100-day moving average which would be one heck of a technical feat. But this is a great lesson that when the market's fundamentals and technical components support one another, a change in direction is possible. There have been a few cash cattle sales in the North at $290 which is $2.00 higher than last week's weighted average, and some live sales have been noted in the South at $183 which is also $2.00 higher than last week's weighted average. Some Northern cattle have been requested for delivery as soon as next 9/30/2024 indicating that packers are shorter bought than they'd ideally like. Please note that later this afternoon the monthly Cattle on Feed report will be released.

Boxed beef prices are higher: choice up $1.11 ($300.67) and select up $1.33 ($289.59) with a movement of 82 loads (56.81 loads of choice, 6.17 loads of select, 5.75 loads of trim and 13.51 loads of ground beef).

FEEDER CATTLE:

With the support of a higher trending live cattle complex and the cash cattle market easily trading $2.00 higher on fed cattle, the feeder cattle complex is again rallying into the day's noon hour. Not only is it praiseworthy that the feeder cattle complex is rallying ahead of a Cattle on Feed report, but from a technical standpoint, the market is showing confidence as traders just advanced the spot October contract beyond its 40-day moving average which the market hasn't traded above since July. It seems as though the market is taking on a more bullish approach thanks to the Fed's interest rate announcement earlier this week, and then combined with the support of better trader interest and higher fed cash cattle prices -- the feeder cattle market is well supported. October feeders are up $0.55 at $244.22, November feeders are up $0.57 at $241.92 and January feeders are up $0.87 at $237.00.

LEAN HOGS:

After rallying aggressively earlier this week, the nearby lean hog contracts are showing some late-week exhaustion but thankfully the deferred contracts are continuing to press onward. October lean hogs are down $0.05 at $82.20, December lean hogs are down $0.12 at $74.17 and February lean hogs are up $0.15 at $77.47. Not helping matters is the fact that pork cutout values are slightly lower, and more than anything traders seem to be hitting the pause button on the complex until next week as they've already pushed the nearby contracts to prices not last seen since June.

The projected lean hog index for 9/19/2024 is down $0.02 at $84.36 and the actual index for 9/18/2024 is up $0.16 at $84.38. Hog prices are higher on the Daily Direct Morning Hog Report, up $2.14 with a weighted average price of $78.45, ranging from $75.00 to $80.00 on 1,137 head and a five-day rolling average of $76.82. Pork cutouts total 146.20 loads with 131.73 loads of pork cuts and 14.47 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: down $0.31, $94.50.