Friday Closing Livestock Market Update - December Live Cattle Close Above the Market's 100-Day Moving Average

GENERAL COMMENTS:

It was an exhilarating day for the cattle complex as the contracts rallied through the day's end and cash cattle prices rallied $2.00 to $3.00 higher. And thankfully Friday's Cattle on Feed report will likely be found as mostly neutral for the market. December corn is down 4 cents per bushel and December soybean meal is down $2.40. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 38.17 points.

From Friday-to-Friday livestock futures scored the following changes: October live cattle up $4.82, December live cattle up $4.70; September feeder cattle up $2.93, October feeder cattle up $4.78; October lean hogs up $3.78, December lean hogs up $2.93; December corn down $0.12 and March corn down $0.11.

LIVE CATTLE:

Someone might have yelled, "Katy bar the door," because Friday was a moving and shaking day kind of day for the live cattle complex. First, the cash cattle market successfully accomplished its goal as prices traded higher in both regions. Northern cattle were sold at mostly $290 which is $2.00 higher than last week's weighted average and Southern live cattle were marked at mostly $183 which is also $2.00 to $3.00 higher than last week's weighted. Secondly, it was also encouraging for traders to not only see cash cattle prices higher but to also see boxed beef prices round out the day on a higher note as well. And lastly, the gains seen throughout the futures complex were praiseworthy as trades moved the spot December contract not only above its 40-day moving average this past week, but by Friday's close the market also had surpassed its 100-day moving average. And the last time the market traded above its 100-day moving average was before the market melt down early in August. Needless to say, Friday's market was beyond fruitful for the cattle complex -- now hopefully next week's market can continue to build on the strong energy established this past week. October live cattle closed $2.50 higher at $182.47, December live cattle closed $2.07 higher at $183.20 and February live cattle closed $1.42 higher at $183.77. 

Friday's slaughter is estimated at 108,000 head – 10,000 head less than a week ago and 5,000 head less than a year ago. Saturday's slaughter is projected to be around 9,000 head. The week's total slaughter is estimated at 610,000 head -- 10,000 head less than a week ago and 16,000 head less than a year ago.

Boxed beef prices closed higher: choice up $0.63 ($300.19) and select up $0.33 ($288.59) with a movement of 130 loads (84.30 loads of choice, 15.08 loads of select, 6.75 loads of trim and 23.81 loads of ground beef).

MONDAY'S CATTLE CALL: Steady. Much of next week's cash trade will depend on how many cattle packers got bought this past week.

FEEDER CATTLE:

It was another fruitful day for the feeder cattle complex as the market well was supported once again thanks to active demand in the countryside for feeder cattle and thanks to the roll over support from the live cattle/cash cattle market's higher trend. It was especially encouraging however to see the feeder cattle complex trade higher even though this afternoon the monthly Cattle on Feed report was released. So often traders wipe their hands of the market ahead of the COF report simply because they know that there is a chance that bearish tones could be the theme of the report's data. However, traders opted to focus on the market's profound gains this past week and thankfully the COF report didn't share any groundbreaking news either. DTN's Cattle on Feed report is available here:

October feeders closed $0.12 higher at $243.90, November feeders closed $0.42 higher at $241.77 and January feeders closed $0.65 higher at $236.77. The Oklahoma Weekly Cattle Auction Summary shared that compared to last week feeder steers and heifers traded $2.00 to $7.00 higher, but steer and heifer calves sold $2.00 to $7.00 lower. Slaughter cows sold $9.00 to $10.00 lower and slaughter bulls traded $10.00 lower. Feeder cattle supply over 600 pounds was 63%. The CME feeder cattle index 9/19/2024: down $1.16, $243.26.

LEAN HOGS:

The nearby lean hog contracts may have closed slightly lower, but the market was able to maintain its higher position through the market's deferred contract. More than anything traders' eagerness to advance the nearby contracts seemed to dwindle as the cattle complex drew more of trader's attention and interest with its ambitious gain. Not to mention, earlier in the week the market ran the spot December contract to the highest position it's traded at since early June and with pork cutout values being mixed this week, traders want to see more support before they advance the complex anymore. October lean hogs closed $0.02 lower at $82.22, December lean hogs closed $0.07 lower at $74.22 and February lean hogs closed $0.22 higher at $77.50. Hog prices closed higher on the Daily Direct Afternoon Hog Report, up $0.61 with a weighted average price of $76.88 on 2,097 head. Pork cutouts totaled 232.91 loads with 214.97 loads of pork cuts and 17.94 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: down $0.66, $94.15. Friday's slaughter is estimated at 475,000 head – 1,000 head more than a week ago and steady with a year ago. Saturday's slaughter is projected to be around 140,000 head. The CME lean hog index 9/18/2024: up $0.16, $84.38.

MONDAY'S HOG CALL: Steady. Packers will likely want to see how demand shapes up early next week before they support the cash market too wildly.

Friday Midday Livestock Market Summary - Cash Cattle Prices Jump $2.00 Higher

GENERAL COMMENTS:

With the cash cattle market noting prices $2.00 higher in both the Northern and Southern plains, both the live cattle and feeder cattle markets are rallying into Friday's noon hour. Later this afternoon the monthly Cattle on Feed report will be released which could affect trade early next week. December corn is down 3 1/4 cents per bushel and December soybean meal is down $4.70. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 31.83 points.

LIVE CATTLE:

With the cash cattle market seeing prices being reported $2.00 higher in both regions, traders are celebrating the fact that the market's fundamentals are helping add to their supportive note this week and are once again advancing the contracts higher. October live cattle are up $1.75 at $181.75, December live cattle are up $1.70 at $182.85 and February live cattle are up $1.15 at $183.55. It was just this week that the market conquered its 40-day moving average in the spot December contract, and now the market is close to nearing its 100-day moving average which would be one heck of a technical feat. But this is a great lesson that when the market's fundamentals and technical components support one another, a change in direction is possible. There have been a few cash cattle sales in the North at $290 which is $2.00 higher than last week's weighted average, and some live sales have been noted in the South at $183 which is also $2.00 higher than last week's weighted average. Some Northern cattle have been requested for delivery as soon as next 9/30/2024 indicating that packers are shorter bought than they'd ideally like. Please note that later this afternoon the monthly Cattle on Feed report will be released.

Boxed beef prices are higher: choice up $1.11 ($300.67) and select up $1.33 ($289.59) with a movement of 82 loads (56.81 loads of choice, 6.17 loads of select, 5.75 loads of trim and 13.51 loads of ground beef).

FEEDER CATTLE:

With the support of a higher trending live cattle complex and the cash cattle market easily trading $2.00 higher on fed cattle, the feeder cattle complex is again rallying into the day's noon hour. Not only is it praiseworthy that the feeder cattle complex is rallying ahead of a Cattle on Feed report, but from a technical standpoint, the market is showing confidence as traders just advanced the spot October contract beyond its 40-day moving average which the market hasn't traded above since July. It seems as though the market is taking on a more bullish approach thanks to the Fed's interest rate announcement earlier this week, and then combined with the support of better trader interest and higher fed cash cattle prices -- the feeder cattle market is well supported. October feeders are up $0.55 at $244.22, November feeders are up $0.57 at $241.92 and January feeders are up $0.87 at $237.00.

LEAN HOGS:

After rallying aggressively earlier this week, the nearby lean hog contracts are showing some late-week exhaustion but thankfully the deferred contracts are continuing to press onward. October lean hogs are down $0.05 at $82.20, December lean hogs are down $0.12 at $74.17 and February lean hogs are up $0.15 at $77.47. Not helping matters is the fact that pork cutout values are slightly lower, and more than anything traders seem to be hitting the pause button on the complex until next week as they've already pushed the nearby contracts to prices not last seen since June.

The projected lean hog index for 9/19/2024 is down $0.02 at $84.36 and the actual index for 9/18/2024 is up $0.16 at $84.38. Hog prices are higher on the Daily Direct Morning Hog Report, up $2.14 with a weighted average price of $78.45, ranging from $75.00 to $80.00 on 1,137 head and a five-day rolling average of $76.82. Pork cutouts total 146.20 loads with 131.73 loads of pork cuts and 14.47 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: down $0.31, $94.50.

Friday Morning Livestock Market Update - Mixed Futures Expected Ahead of Cattle on Feed Report

GENERAL COMMENTS:

Cash cattle have not yet been traded. This has provided traders with the optimism for higher cash. Feedlots are holding out with the expectation that packers will step up to procure the cattle they need. The delay of cash trading until Friday generally takes place the week of the Cattle on Feed report. The increase in futures adds to the resolve of the feedlot while the continued weakness of boxed beef may limit what packers will pay. Boxed beef prices were lower with choice down $1.82 and select down $1.49. Futures may trade mixed today as traders position themselves ahead of the Cattle on Feed report. The average estimate of cattle on feed on September 1 is 100.7% of a year ago with the range of estimates from 100.1% to 101.3%. August placements are estimated at 98.5% with a range of 93.5% to 102.3%. Cattle marketed in August are estimated at 96.5% with a range of 96.0% to 97.5%.

Hog futures contracts through April closed higher keeping the recent uptrend intact. Support stemmed from packer interest and higher cash prices. The National Direct Afternoon report showed cash up $1.39 which was not expected. Cutouts found support as well posting a gain of $0.40. The fund traders have been supporting the market and as long as demand holds and the technical studies are positive, they may continue to do so. Saturday slaughter is estimated at 135,000 head.

	BULL SIDE		BEAR SIDE
1)	Feedlots seem intent on holding out for higher cash. The packers may need to pay more to procure the cattle they need as they do not have many purchased ahead.	1)	If cash cattle trade at only steady cash, it may be a disappointment to the trade. It may trigger selling pressure.
2)	There may be further short covering ahead of the Cattle on Feed report as traders position themselves to reduce exposure.	2)	Boxed beef continues to show weakness with choice cuts falling below $300 again. The decline in interest rates may have a limited impact on demand.
3)	Hog futures have maintained the recent uptrend despite the variability of cash and cutouts.	3)	The packers likely have sufficient hogs purchased for the week and may not be aggressive today. Lower cash is expected.
4)	Pork export sales of 29,000 were 3% below the previous week but are still good sales and indicated continued strong international demand.	4)	The supply of hogs remains plentiful with weights higher than a year ago. This may keep the cash price rangebound and futures showing limited upside potential.

Thursday Closing Livestock Market Update - Complex Higher Thanks to Strong Equity Markets

GENERAL COMMENTS:

It was a prosperous day for the livestock complex as the vast majority of the contracts closed higher thanks to the support of strong equity markets. The cash cattle market still hasn't traded, and at this point it's looking like feedlots may be able to hold this week's market steady when trade does develop. December corn is down 7 cents per bushel and December soybean meal is up $0.20. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 522.09 points.

Thursday's export report shared that beef net sales of 15,500 mt for 2024 were up 36% from the previous week and 2% from the prior 4-week average. The three largest buyers were South Korea (3,700 mt), China (3,000 mt) and Japan (2,900 mt). Pork net sales of 29,000 mt for 2024 were down 3% from the previous week, but up 3% from the previous 4-week average. The three largest buyers were Japan (7,900 mt), Mexico (5,700 mt) and Colombia (3,300 mt).

LIVE CATTLE:

Feedlot managers were elated to see the strength and stamina of the board throughout the day as they continued to push their heels in the ground, waiting for packers to get anxious and off better bids. It was a quiet day in the cash cattle market as packers know that feedlot managers have their sights set on at least steady prices this week. A few bids in the North ($182 live and $288 dressed) were offered throughout the day but largely no cattle sold. There's a chance that traders could become anxious about Friday's afternoon Cattle on Feed report and pull back from the live cattle complex, but feedlot managers are hopeful that they're excitement over the support in the equity markets will be greater and that they'll support the contracts through the week's end -- time will tell. October live cattle closed $1.67 higher at $179.97, December live cattle closed $1.27 higher at $181.12 and February live cattle closed $1.27 higher at $182.35. Asking prices are noted at $184 to $185 in the South but are still not established in the North. 

Thursday's slaughter is estimated at 122,000 head -- 1,000 head less than a week ago and 3,000 head less than a year ago.

Boxed beef prices are lower: choice down $1.82 ($299.56) and select down $1.49 ($288.26) with a movement of 170 loads (117.34 loads of choice, 23.18 loads of select, 5.19 loads of trim and 24.75 loads of ground beef).

FRIDAY'S CATTLE CALL: Steady to somewhat higher. Given the uptick in slaughter pace, it's not out of line to think that feedlot managers could keep this week's cash market steady.

FEEDER CATTLE:

Between the positive boost of support from the equity markets reacting positively to the Feds announcement yesterday that they're going to decrease interest rates, to the live cattle contracts higher push – the feeder cattle market had all the support it needed throughout Thursday's trade. October feeders closed $3.82 higher at $243.77, November feeders closed $3.22 higher at $241.35 and January feeders closed $3.02 higher at $236.12. It was impressive to see the spot October contract close significantly higher than its 40-day moving average as that has been a threshold that's previously been too daunting for traders to tackle. But with enough technical support developing this week – traders charged beyond that resistance point and hopefully will keep the market trading higher. At La Junta, Livestock Commission in La Junta, Colorado, compared to last week steers under 550 pounds sold $3.00 to $14.00 higher. Feeder steers over 550 pounds sold $2.00 to $12.00 lower with instances of sharply lower. Feeder heifers sold mostly $1.00 to $14.00 lower with instances of even lower. Slaughter bulls sold $14.00 higher. Feeder cattle supply over 600 pounds was 33%. The CME feeder cattle index 9/18/2024: up $1.03, $244.42.

LEAN HOGS:

The lean hog complex rounded out the day mixed with its nearby contracts, able to keep their higher position, but the market's deferred contracts closed slightly lower. Today's higher end was largely a mixture of traders seeing the greater market's excitement over the Fed's announcement of decreasing interest rates, combined with slightly better interest in pork cutout values. It is worth noting too that the spot December contract is currently trading at the highest price point at which it's traded at since early June. October lean hogs are up $0.20 at $82.25, December lean hogs are up $0.42 at $74.30 and February lean hogs are up $0.32 at $77.32. Hog prices closed higher on the Daily Direct Afternoon Hog Report, up $1.39 with a weighted average price of $76.27 on 2,840 head. Pork cutouts totaled 323.70 loads with 303.32 loads of pork cuts and 20.37 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: up $0.40, $94.81. Thursday's slaughter is estimated at 479,000 head -- 4,000 head less than a week ago and 10,000 head less than a year ago. The CME lean hog index 9/17/2024: steady, $84.22.

FRIDAY'S HOG CALL: Lower. At this point it's safe to assume that packers have already boughten the vast majority of their needs for the week in the cash hog market and that Friday's market wasn't see much interest.

Thursday Midday Livestock Market Summary - Stronger Equity Markets Help Bolster Markets

GENERAL COMMENTS:

It's a prosperous day for the livestock markets as all three markets are trading higher. Some bids are currently being offered in the North at $182 live in Nebraska and $288 dressed in Iowa -- but still no sales have been reported. December corn is down 5 1/4 cents per bushel and December soybean meal is up $0.70. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 457.42 points.

Thursday's export report shared that beef net sales of 15,500 mt for 2024 were up 36% from the previous week and 2% from the prior 4-week average. The three largest buyers were South Korea (3,700 mt), China (3,000 mt) and Japan (2,900 mt). Pork net sales of 29,000 mt for 2024 were down 3% from the previous week, but up 3% from the previous 4-week average. The three largest buyers were Japan (7,900 mt), Mexico (5,700 mt) and Colombia (3,300 mt).

LIVE CATTLE:

The live cattle complex is seeing phenomenal traders support this morning as the equity markets are performing well following Chairman Powell's announcement yesterday that interest rates were going to be cut by a half of a point. October live cattle are up $1.47 at $179.77, December live cattle are up $1.52 at $181.37 and February live cattle are up $1.45 at $182.52. The spot December contract is currently trading above its 40-day moving average which has been a resistance point in which traders have mostly shied away from since the equity meltdown early in August. The market's 40-day moving average will continue to be a threshold worth monitoring as closes above that price point signal bullishness but closed beneath that point signal market skepticism and some fear. A few bids are currently on the table in the North, but at this point still no sales have been reported as packers and feedlot managers go toe to toe. Bids of $182 live are currently being offered in Nebraska, and dressed bids of $288 are being offered in Iowa. Asking prices are noted in the South at $184 to $185, but still remain unestablished in the North. Packer interest could improve later this afternoon but with feedlot managers eager to hold cash prices steady this week, trade will likely be delayed until Friday.

Boxed beef prices are lower: Choice down $1.01 ($300.37) and select down $0.26 ($289.49) with a movement of 104 loads (70.18 loads of choice, 10.31 loads of select, 4.67 loads of trim and 18.89 loads of ground beef).

FEEDER CATTLE:

With the Dow Jones up over 450 points, and the nearby live cattle contracts rallying over $1.00 higher, the feeder cattle complex is being robustly supported from strong trader interest and technical support. September feeders are up $2.27 at $245.10, October feeders are up $3.52 at $243.47 and November feeders are up $2.90 $241.02. It's impressive to see the spot October contract well above its 40-day moving average which has been a nearby hurdle in which traders have resistance up until this point, to take on as there simply hasn't been enough support in the marketplace to do so confidently.

LEAN HOGS:

The lean hog complex is trading mixed with the nearby contracts trading higher, and the deferred contracts trading modestly lower. It's helpful that midday pork cutout values are up as demand has been mixed earlier this week. October lean hogs are up $0.10 at $82.15, December lean hogs are up $0.35 at $74.22 and February lean hogs are up $0.30 at $77.30. The nearby contracts are trading in territory not last traded at since early June, which means that the complex could run into trader nervousness as they hope that support is sufficient to support these levels.

The projected lean hog index for 9/18/2024 is up $0.16 at $84.38, and the actual index for 9/17/2024 is steady at $84.22. Hog prices on the Daily Direct Morning Hog Report average $76.31, ranging from $72.00 to $79.00 on 1,557 head and a five-day rolling average of $76.47. Pork cutouts total 181.63 loads with 163.49 loads of pork cuts and 18.14 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: up $1.35, $95.76.

Thursday Morning Livestock Market Update - Traders Search for Fundamental Support

GENERAL COMMENTS:

Cattle futures showed limited price movement on Wednesday as cash cattle trade had not developed, and traders' attentions began to look ahead to the Cattle on Feed report to be released on Friday. The average estimate of cattle on feed on September 1 is 100.7% of a year ago. Placements in August are estimated at 98.5%. Cattle marketed in August are estimated at 96.5%. The report has been notorious for actual placement being higher than estimated. Dry weather has been prevalent in cattle country over the past month which may result in higher placements into feedlots due to pasture conditions and the delay in planting and growth of the wheat crop. There have been no cattle traded so far this week with trade not likely to take place today. Boxed beef prices suffered with choice closing down $2.53 and select down $2.57.

Hog futures traded in a narrow range but held onto the recent gains. December and later contracts closed at the highest level since June 7. It was surprising the market held as it did due to the pressure on cash and cutouts. The National Direct Afternoon Hog report showed cash down $2.45 moving the weighted average price to $74.88. Pork cutouts were down $0.59. Hog futures have shown surprising strength over the past month without solid support from cash and cutouts. It may be difficult for futures to continue to trend higher without support from the cash market. Saturday slaughter is estimated at 135,000 head.

	BULL SIDE		BEAR SIDE
1)	The feedlots seem determined to regain control of cattle prices and have not sold any cattle so far. They are holding for higher prices.	1)	Boxed beef prices took a hit on Wednesday. Beef demand is struggling and may limit the upside price potential.
2)	There is little evidence of the rebuilding of the beef herd. If the dryness persists in cattle country, that may be delayed leaving continued tightness of supply.	2)	The upcoming Cattle on Feed report has been notoriously bearish in the placement category, and this may keep trading activity subdued ahead of the report.
3)	Hog futures moved above technical resistance and held above it on Wednesday. Fund traders have been increasing their long positions.	3)	Hog weights remain 4.6 pounds above a year ago averaging 283.5 pounds. New crop corn is becoming available which may increase weight gain and provide more pork.
4)	Hog weights declined by 0.5 pounds last week to an average of 283.5 pounds. There is a less tonnage available to the market.	4)	The decline in cash and cutouts on Wednesday may impact the market negatively today. Traders need positive fundamental news to support the trend.

Wednesday Closing Livestock Market Update - Live Cattle and Lean Hogs Celebrate a Higher End

GENERAL COMMENTS:

Even though traders believed that the Federal Reserve would lower interest rates this afternoon, it was peace of mind to see Chairman Powell publicly announce a half-point cut this afternoon. Still no cash cattle trade has developed, and it's likely that trade could be delayed until Friday. December corn is up 1/4 cents per bushel and December soybean meal is down $0.10. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 180.19 points.

LIVE CATTLE:

It was another fruitful day for the live cattle complex as traders supported the market through the day's end despite the fact that there's been no cash cattle sales yet, and that boxed beef prices closed lower. It was encouraging to see traders keep the spot December contract above the market's 40-day moving average even though there's a Cattle on Feed report looming later this week, and we believe the cash cattle market will likely trade steady, you can't be certain until sales are actually reported. December live cattle closed steady at $179.85, February live cattle closed $0.07 higher at $181.07 and April live cattle closed $0.05 higher at $182.42. No bids developed throughout the day as both packers and feedlot managers know that this week's trade is going to be a waiting game. Asking prices in the South are noted at $184 to $185 but remain unestablished still in the North. 

Wednesday's slaughter is estimated at 125,000 head -- 1,000 head more than a week ago and 2,000 head less than a year ago.

Boxed beef prices closed lower: choice down $2.53 ($301.38) and select down $2.47 ($289.75) with a movement of 176 loads (107.85 loads of choice, 42.87 loads of select, 7.58 loads of trim and 18.13 loads of ground beef).

THURSDAY'S CATTLE CALL: Steady. Feedlot managers are eager to regain some leverage in the marketplace and with showlists current, they're batting for at least steady prices this week.

FEEDER CATTLE:

The feeder cattle complex wasn't as aggressive throughout Wednesday's trade as the live cattle complex was as most of its nearby contracts closed slightly lower but some of the deferred contracts were able to maintain a slightly higher end by the day's ending bell. More than anything it seems as though traders have hit the pause button on the feeder cattle market's upward trend as they dance uncomfortably around the market's 40-day moving average and are sweating about Friday's Cattle on Feed report. October feeders closed $0.80 lower at $239.95, November feeders closed $0.17 lower at $238.12 and January feeders closed $0.05 higher at $233.10. At Hub City Livestock Auction in Aberdeen, South Dakota compared to last week steers weighing 850 to 949 pounds sold steady, but steers weighing 950 to 999 pounds and those weighing 1,000 to 1,049 pounds traded $3.00 to $5.00 higher. All weight classes of heifers sold with a stronger undertone. Feeder cattle supply over 600 pounds was 96%. The CME feeder cattle index 9/17/2024: down $0.05, $243.39.

LEAN HOGS:

The lean hog complex powered through Wednesday's trade rallying on strong trader support. The spot December contract inched slightly higher, not willing to take on the resistance at $74.00, but not seeming to necessarily want to trade lower either. It was disappointing however to see how the market's fundamentals shook out throughout the day given that the cash hog market was hardly tested, and that the afternoon carcass price sank lower. But between the belly's $4.41 drop and the picnic's $2.70 drop, the carcass price stood little chance at closing higher. October lean hogs closed $0.27 higher at $82.05, December lean hogs closed $0.17 higher at $73.87 and February lean hogs closed $0.20 higher at $77.00. Hog prices closed lower on the Daily Direct Afternoon Hog Report, down $2.45 with a weighted average price of $74.88 on 1,318 head. Pork cutouts totaled 372.40 loads with 338.15 loads of pork cuts and 34.25 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: down $0.59, $94.41. Wednesday's slaughter is estimated at 479,000 head -- 4,000 head less than a week ago and 8,000 head less than a year ago. The CME lean hog index 9/16/2024: down $0.16, $84.22.

THURSDAY'S HOG CALL: Lower. With the reduction in slaughter this week and in noting how thinly Wednesday's market was traded, there's a chance that packers could be essentially done buying cash hog already this week.

Wednesday Midday Livestock Market Summary - Live Cattle and Lean Hogs Sport Higher Prices

GENERAL COMMENTS:

Both the live cattle and lean hog contracts are trading mostly higher into Wednesday's noon hour, but the feeder cattle market isn't as sold as its market is currently trading mixed. Still no cash cattle trade has developed, but packer interest should improve later this afternoon. December corn is up 1 3/4 cents per bushel and December soybean meal is down $2.30. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 47.57 points.

LIVE CATTLE:

The live cattle complex is trading mostly higher into Wednesday's noon hour as the market anticipates interest rates to be lowered this afternoon and believes that there's a strong chance that the cash cattle market could trade at least steady again this week. October live cattle are down slightly, but besides that contract, the entire rest of the marketplace is trading higher. It is also worth noting that the spot December contract is currently trading above its 40-day moving average, which has been a resistance point at which the market has struggled to hurdle over. October live cattle are down $0.22 at $178.57, December live cattle are up $0.15 at $180.00 and February live cattle are up $0.05 at $181.05. The cash cattle market is still quiet with no bids having developed yet. Asking prices are noted in the South at $184 to $185 but have not yet been established in the North.

Boxed beef prices are lower: Choice down $0.36 ($303.55) and select down $0.61 ($291.61) with a movement of 107 loads (68.13 loads of choice, 28.85 loads of select, zero loads of trim and 9.59 loads of ground beef).

FEEDER CATTLE:

The feeder cattle complex is trading mixed as the market's nearby contracts seem to be holding their breath -- waiting to see how just how much interest rates are decreased by and waiting to see if the spot December live cattle contract can indeed close above its 40-day moving average. October feeders are down $0.82 at $239.92, November feeders are down $0.30 at $238.00 and January feeders are steady at $233.02. It's likely that the market will merely chop sideways through the afternoon as it waits to see what support (or lack thereof) stems from the live cattle market's trade today.

LEAN HOGS:

Between seeing ample support from traders and the morning's positive note of stronger pork cutout values, the lean hog complex is trading higher into Wednesday's noon hour with ease. October lean hogs are up $0.25 at $82.07, December lean hogs are up $0.05 at $73.75 and February lean hogs are up $0.07 at $76.87. I'm somewhat surprised to see that the morning's cash hog market has only traded 375 head as I thought that packers would need to be at least aggressive one more day this week to avoid being short bought. So, monitoring the afternoon's cash report will be important this afternoon.

The projected lean hog index for 9/17/2024 is steady at $84.22, and the actual index for 9/16/2024 is down $0.16 at $84.22. Hog prices are unavailable on the Daily Direct Morning Hog Report due to confidentiality. However, we can see that only 375 head have traded, and that the market's five-day rolling average now sits at $76.55. Pork cutouts total 181.85 loads with 162.44 loads of pork cuts and 19.41 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: up $1.08, $96.08.

Wednesday Morning Livestock Market Update - Renewed Optimism May Support Futures

GENERAL COMMENTS:

Traders did not want to wait around to see what cash would do and bought futures aggressively. It seems they wanted to reduce some of the discount the market is holding to cash and felt comfortable buying even though cash may trade steady this week. The increase was not enough to change the trend, but it provides hope for further upside potential. Boxed beef prices did not provide much support with prices mixed with choice down $0.66 and select up $0.08. The upcoming Cattle on Feed report and the potential for steady cash trade may limit upside price potential. Feeder cattle follow the strength of live cattle as usual. There was little else to move the market.

The February and later hog contracts moved above the recent highs turning the trend higher. This may increase the buying interest of technical traders. The October and December contracts have not yet resumed the uptrend but may revisit the highs. The National Daily Direct Afternoon Hog report showed a gain for the second day with an increase of $0.37. It is anticipated the packers may not be finished buying for the week with higher prices again today. Pork cutouts gained $0.78 providing further support to the market.

	BULL SIDE		BEAR SIDE
1)	Traders may further reduce some of the discount the market is holding to cash. The anticipation is for steady cash trade this week.	1)	The upcoming Cattle on Feed report may temper the exuberance of traders due to the uncertainty of placements.
2)	Feedlots may hold tight to higher asking prices as long as there is support in the futures market. The packers did not purchase many cattle for deferred delivery last week.	2)	Boxed beef prices continue to struggle which may limit the upside price potential for cattle futures and cash cattle.
3)	February and later hog contracts moved and closed above the previous highs. This may trigger further buying interest from the technical traders.	3)	The October and December hog contracts may have difficulty pushing above the previous highs without further strength from underlying cash.
4)	Better cash and cutout prices so far this week have provided renewed support for the market. The packers may need more hogs and may be aggressive buyers today.	4)	Hog supplies remain plentiful with weights continuing to run higher than a year ago. The packers continue to obtain sufficient supplies without having to chase the market higher.

Tuesday Closing Livestock Market Update - Traders Push Complex Higher

GENERAL COMMENTS:

It was a strong day for the livestock complex as all three of the markets were able to round out the day stronger. The cash cattle market still hasn't seen any cattle trade but asking prices in the South are noted at $184 to $185. December corn is up 1 3/4 cents per bushel and December soybean meal is down $2.30. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 47.57 points.

LIVE CATTLE:

The live cattle complex was able to capitalize on traders' interest and support and thankfully rally through Tuesday's end. The spot December contract: however, still wasn't able to break through the market's resistance at its 40-day moving average of $179.85 -- it missed it by a mere penny. The trick part about this week's market is that traders seem both willing and eager to advance the contracts but aren't able to fully do so without a little more fundamental support. But even if boxed beef prices turn higher later this week or even if the cash cattle market maintains steady trade, there's a strong chance that traders pull-back from the market ahead of see what Friday's Cattle on Feed report yields. Asking prices in the South are noted at $184 to $185 but are still not established in the North. Trade will likely be delayed until Wednesday or later. 

Tuesday's slaughter is estimated at 125,000 head -- 1,000 head more than a week ago and steady with a year ago.

Boxed beef prices closed mixed: choice down $0.66 ($303.91) and select up $0.08 ($292.22) with a movement of 156 loads (105.86 loads of choice, 27.23 loads of select, 12.78 loads of trim and 10.58 loads of ground beef).

WEDNESDAY'S CATTLE CALL: Steady. Given that packers didn't get many cattle bought last week for the deferred delivery option, it's likely that they'll need to be aggressive again in this week's market which could help prices hold steady.

FEEDER CATTLE:

It was a strong day for the feeder cattle complex as the market was well supported by traders and from the encouragement that spilt over from the live cattle market's higher trend too. October feeders closed $1.75 higher at $240.75, November feeders closed $2.72 higher at $238.30 and January feeders closed $2.37 higher at $233.05. Just like the live cattle complex, the spot October feeder cattle contract came up shy of closing above the market's immediate resistance at the 40-day moving average at $241.21. At Joplin Regional Stockyards in Carthage, Missouri, compared to last week feeder steers under 650 pounds sold steady to $8.00 lower with heavier weights traded $2.00 to $6.00 higher. Feeder heifers sold steady to $5.00 higher. Supply was heavy but demand remained strong. Feeder cattle supply over 600 pounds was 68%. The CME feeder cattle index 9/16/2024: up $0.76, $243.44.

LEAN HOGS:

It was a rallying day for the lean hog complex as the market was able to close substantially higher. Traders saw the support of the cash market and the higher close of pork cutout values and found plenty of room on the board to trade. October lean hogs closed $1.85 higher at $81.77, December lean hogs closed $1.52 higher at $73.70 and February lean hogs closed $1.12 higher at $76.80. Hog prices closed higher on the Daily Direct Afternoon Hog Report, up $0.37 with a weighted average price of $77.33 on 9,204 head. Pork cutouts totaled 298.02 loads with 262.96 loads of pork cuts and 35.07 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: up $0.78, $95.00. Tuesday's slaughter is estimated at 474,000 head -- 10,000 head less than a week ago and 11,000 head less than a year ago. The CME lean hog index 9/13/2024: down $0.49, $84.38.

WEDNESDAY'S HOG CALL: Steady. Packers were more aggressive through Tuesday's market, but it's still likely that they'll need to buy some more on Wednesday.

Tuesday Midday Livestock Market Summary - Complex Trading Fully Higher

GENERAL COMMENTS:

All three of the livestock contracts are trading higher into Tuesday's afternoon as the market has been met with ample trader interest. The cash cattle market hasn't seen bids or asking prices published yet, but trade isn't expected to develop until Wednesday or later. December corn is up 1/2 cent per bushel and December soybean meal is down $3.10. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 32.85 points.

LIVE CATTLE:

The live cattle complex is trading fully higher into Tuesday's noon hour as the market is currently well supported by traders. The spot December contract was trading above its 40-day moving average earlier this morning, but traders quickly backed the contract below that threshold as they aren't confident that there's enough support fundamentally backing that kind of an aggressive technical leap. There's a chance that market could see the contract jump above that threshold later this week if cash cattle prices were to trade steady/somewhat higher -- but the problem about later this week is that Friday's Cattle on Feed report will likely cause traders to safety up and become more cautious in their demeanor. October live cattle are up $1.10 at $178.32, December live cattle are up $1.20 at $179.55 and February live cattle are up $1.07 at $180.55. Still no developments have surfaced in the cash cattle market and it's not likely that any trade will develop ahead of Wednesday at the absolute earliest.

Boxed beef prices are mixed: choice down $0.89 ($303.68) and select up $0.35 ($292.49) with a movement of 106 loads (71.15 loads of choice, 16.41 loads of select, 10.50 loads of trim and 8.31 loads of ground beef).

FEEDER CATTLE:

The feeder cattle complex is also trading higher as traders appreciate the spill over support that's currently coming from the live cattle market's higher trend. October feeders are up $1.60 at $240.60, November feeders are up $2.20 at $237.77 and January feeders are up $2.10 at $232.77. Like the live cattle complex, the feeder cattle market's 40-day moving average remains a hurdle in which traders are leery to attempt to jump. If some strong fundamental support comes into play later this week there's a chance that the complex could conquer that threshold, but currently it appears to remain daunting for traders.

LEAN HOGS:

The lean hog complex is also trading higher as the market continues to rally off Monday's impressive move. October lean hogs are up $1.57 at $81.50, December lean hogs are up $1.40 at $73.60 and February lean hogs are up $0.90 at $76.57. Even with midday pork cutout values lower, traders are electing to advance the complex as technical support is more than sufficient enough at the time to push the market higher. Even so, traders will be closely monitoring closing pork cutout values as demand remains a key driver of the market.

The projected lean hog index for 9/16/2024 is down $0.16 at $84.22 and the actual index for 9/13/2024 is down $0.49 at $84.38. Hog prices are higher on the Daily Direct Morning Hog Report, up $1.74 with a weighted average price of $76.74, ranging from $75.00 to $78.00 on 4,735 head and a five-day rolling average of $76.55. Pork cutouts total 152.17 loads with 144.09 loads of pork cuts and 8.08 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: down $0.27, $93.95.

Tuesday Morning Livestock Market Update - Traders Unable to Find Solid Direction

GENERAL COMMENTS:

Cattle futures opened higher and spent some time in positive territory, but the trade lacked conviction. The idea that steady cash this week might support the market seemed to lose some luster. Traders may need to see higher cash to get excited about buying into the market. Cash activity may not take place until late in the week due to the Cattle on Feed report being released on Friday. The general pattern has been that most activity usually takes place on the day of the report. There was some hope for higher boxed beef on the midday report, but prices declined with choice down $0.34 and select down $2.03.

Hog futures found support after trading began. Futures broke above the sideways trading range that developed last week but could not hold the strength slipping back to the top end of the range. Higher cash and cutouts may provide sufficient support resulting in further support for futures today. The National Daily Direct Afternoon Hog report showed cash up $0.96. Cutouts gained $0.32 showing gains in categories except hams. The interest from the packers on Monday is a good sign that they may remain aggressive today and maybe much of the week as they need to procure hogs for processing.

	BULL SIDE		BEAR SIDE
1)	If cash cattle trade is no worse than steady this week, it should provide support to the market as traders may believe the low is established.	1)	Boxed beef prices continue to struggle and a reflection of reduced demand. The reduced slaughter pace has not been able to improve prices.
2)	Cattle numbers remain tight and there is concern over the possible redeveloping drought in the Southwest over the past month due to abnormally dry conditions.	2)	Traders may remain cautious for the week with little reason to push the market one way or the other ahead of the Cattle on Feed report.
3)	Hog futures have recently trended higher and may move above the trading range that developed last week. This could increase buying interest.	3)	The inability of hog futures to hold the gains after breaking above the sideways range on Monday may indicate the market has limited upside potential currently.
4)	Cash is expected to be higher today following the strength of Monday. The packers seem to need hogs and will be more aggressive in procuring what they need early in the week.	4)	Hog numbers are plentiful, and packers have little reason to be concerned over supply. This limits their aggressiveness in the cash market despite a strong slaughter pace.

Monday Closing Livestock Market Update - Traders Support Hogs, But Let the Cattle Contracts Drift Slightly Lower

GENERAL COMMENTS:

It was a mixed day for the livestock complex as the lean hog market rallied throughout the day, but the cattle complex traded mixed. Traders could be leery of overly supporting the cattle contracts ahead of seeing what Friday's Cattle on Feed report unveils. December corn is down 2 1/2 cents per bushel and December soybean meal is up $0.90. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 192.48 points.

LIVE CATTLE:

Given that while the rest of the livestock complex was trading higher earlier in the day that the live cattle contracts were taking more a reserved and cautious approach to the week's start, it wasn't surprising to see the live cattle contracts round out the day with the same doggish tones that they carried throughout all of Monday's trade. October live cattle closed $0.42 lower at $177.22, December live cattle closed $0.15 lower at $178.35 and February live cattle closed $0.12 lower at $179.47. The market's resistance around its 40-day moving average is a threshold in which traders are going to need ample fundamental support backing them before they attempt to take on that barrier. New showlists appear to be mixed, higher in Texas, but lower in Kansas and Nebraska/Colorado. Monday's slaughter is estimated at 121,000 head -- 7,000 head more than a week ago and 1,000 head less than a year ago.

Last week Southern live cattle traded at mostly $181 which is mostly steady with the previous week's weighted average, and Northern dressed cattle traded at mostly $288 which is also steady with the previous week's weighted average. Last week's negotiated cash cattle trade totaled 61,496 head. Of that 83% (51,181 head) were committed to the nearby delivery, while the remaining 17% (10,315 head) were committed to the deferred delivery.

Boxed beef prices closed lower: choice down $0.34 ($304.57) and select down $2.03 ($292.14) with a movement of 134 loads (82.30 loads of choice, 13.93 loads of select, 5.09 loads of trim and 32.99 loads of ground beef).

TUESDAY'S CATTLE CALL: Steady. Given that packers weren't able to buy many cattle for the deferred delivery option last week likely means that they'll need to buy more cattle this week -- which could help feedlot manger's keep prices at least steady.

FEEDER CATTLE:

The feeder cattle complex rounded out the day mixed as some of the nearby contracts grew leery of closing higher ahead of the day's end. More than anything, it seemed as though the market's resistance around its 40-day moving average was too much of a hurdle for traders to jump this early in the week -- especially without the support of the live cattle complex as it closed lower. September feeders closed $0.60 lower at $241.30, October feeders closed $0.12 lower at $239.00 and November feeders closed $0.37 higher at $235.57. At Oklahoma National Stockyards in Oklahoma City, Oklahoma, compared to last week and at their mid-session point, compared to last steers and heifers were trading $3.00 to $8.00 higher which was commendable given that much of state is battling hot temperatures and dry conditions. Feeder cattle supply over 600 pounds was 61%. The CME feeder cattle index 9/13/2024: down $0.64, $242.68.

LEAN HOGS:

Following last week's lower end, the lean hog complex was able to rally through Monday's market as the contracts backed away from resistance levels last week. October lean hogs closed $1.47 higher at $79.92, December lean hogs closed $0.87 higher at $72.17 and February lean hogs closed $0.70 higher at $75.67. It was helpful that both pork cutout values and cash prices saw a little uptick throughout the day which helped guide traders as they were well supported fundamentally. With consumer demand being slightly disappointing last week, traders will be actively watching pork cutout values again this week. Hog prices closed higher on the Daily Direct Afternoon Hog Report, up $0.96 with a weighted average price of $76.96 on 3,684 head. Pork cutouts totaled 312.41 loads with 286.40 loads of pork cuts and 26.02 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: up $0.32, $94.22. Monday's slaughter is estimated at 486,000 head -- steady with a week ago and 1,000 head less than a year ago. The CME lean hog index 9/12/2024: down $0.48, $84.87.

TUESDAY'S HOG CALL: Steady to somewhat higher. Given that pork cutout values were up Monday, and that the futures complex was supportive, packers will likely support Tuesday's cash complex.

Monday Midday Livestock Market Summary - Hogs and Feeder Cattle Trade Higher, While Live Cattle Complex Remains Reluctant

GENERAL COMMENTS:

Thus far both the lean hog and feeder cattle contacts have found modest support throughout the morning which has helped the contracts maintain a higher position through the morning's trade. Meanwhile, the live cattle contracts are slow to turn to higher trade as traders desperately yearn to see substantial fundamental support before they do so. December corn is down 3 1/4 cents per bushel and December soybean meal is down $0.90. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 117.14 points.

LIVE CATTLE:

The live cattle complex is the last in the livestock marketplace to jump on board with the notion that higher trade is the aim for Monday. One would think that traders would find it encouraging that packers weren't able to get many cattle bought last week for the deferred delivery option, and that already this morning that midday boxed beef prices are higher. But nevertheless, the live cattle contracts are dragging their feet as the complex is entering Monday's noon hour lower. October live cattle are down $0.42 at $177.22, December live cattle are down $0.20 at $178.30 and February live cattle are down $0.30 at $179.37. Please note that on Friday the month's Cattle on Feed data will be released.

Last week Southern live cattle traded at mostly $181 which is mostly steady with the previous week's weighted average, and Northern dressed cattle traded at mostly $288 which is also steady with the previous week's weighted average. Last week's negotiated cash cattle trade totaled 61,496 head. Of that 83% (51,181 head) were committed to the nearby delivery, while the remaining 17% (10,315 head) were committed to the deferred delivery.

Boxed beef prices are higher: choice up $0.06 ($304.97) and select up $1.63 ($295.80) with a movement of 83 loads (52.08 loads of choice, 7.65 loads of select, 2.68 loads of trim and 20.30 loads of ground beef).

FEEDER CATTLE:

Even with the live cattle contracts trading lower into Monday's noon hour, the feeder cattle contracts are maintaining a modest rally into the afternoon. The spot October contract is hesitant to take on the market's resistance at its 40-day moving average, which could cause the market to simply maintain a slightly higher tone through the day's end but to ultimately chop sideways until traders determine if there's enough support in the market to take on the threshold. October feeders are up $0.17 at $239.30, November feeders are up $0.30 at $235.50 and January feeders are up $0.10 at $230.70.

LEAN HOGS:

The lean hog complex has traded back and forth throughout the morning and as the day's noon hour nears, traders are seeming to comfortably allow the nearby contracts to trade higher. Thankfully the spot October contract is far from its resistance, so if trader interest does grow stronger, the market shouldn't have any issue closing higher as there's ample room technically for the contracts to do so. Plus, it's also helpful that morning pork cutout values are higher as last week's demand wasn't as strong as traders nor packers had hoped for. October lean hogs are up $0.90 at $79.32, December lean hogs are up $0.47 at $71.77 and February lean hogs are up $0.17 at $75.15.

The projected lean hog index for 9/13/2024 is down $0.49 at $84.38, and the actual index for 9/12/2024 is down $0.48 at $84.87. Hog prices are lower on the Daily Direct Morning Hog Report, down $0.94 with a weighted average price of $75.00 on 358 head and a five-day rolling average of $77.21. Pork cutouts total 208.20 loads with 188.10 loads of pork cuts and 20.10 loads of trim. Pork cutout value: up $1.09, $94.99.

Monday Morning Livestock Market Update - Choppy Trading Activity May Continue

GENERAL COMMENTS:

Cash cattle traded steady last week which may provide some optimism to begin the week. Maybe the weakness of cash has run its course, and stability will return to the market. However, the continued weakness of boxed beef is a concern. Prices were lower on Friday with choice down $2.27 and select down $1.47. If boxed beef shows further weakness during the week, it is doubtful that packers will pay more for cattle and a further reduction of slaughter will be seen. Cattle continue to be purchased for deferred delivery keeping packers from having to purchase cattle aggressively to fill slaughter. The feedlots will try for nothing less than steady money again this week. The Commitment of Traders report showed fund traders added 1,659 futures contracts in live cattle to increase their net long position to 44,322. Fund traders were net sellers of 1,346 feeder cattle futures contracts moving their net short position to 2,608 contracts.

Hog futures had a choppy week and closed not much different than the week began. Traders had little to focus on Friday which left the market drifting. The National Direct Afternoon report showed cash unchanged from the previous day. The packers were able to purchase hogs last week without having to be aggressive which kept futures choppy. Pork cutout values declined $0.28 finishing out a week of mostly lower prices. Futures were either building support or finding resistance last week. This week may indicate which and will be influenced by cash. The Commitment of Traders report showed fund traders reducing their net long positions by 720 futures contracts with the net long position now at 41,710 contracts.

	BULL SIDE		BEAR SIDE
1)	Last week's steady cash cattle trade may provide traders the confidence to buy futures and narrow the price gap between futures and cash.	1)	Cattle futures were unable to move higher last week with upside price potential limited.
2)	Feedlots may hold for higher prices this week as they were able to achieve steady cash trade last week.	2)	Boxed beef prices continue to show weakness as demand remains somewhat lackluster. Even signs of economic improvement were not able to push prices higher.
3)	Hog futures traded in a sideways range last week and may have built support. The downside may be limited.	3)	Hog futures could not break out to the upside last week indicating prices may have reached a threshold at the top of the range.
4)	The strong Saturday slaughter may bring the packers in more aggressively at the beginning of the week as they will need hogs to maintain the slaughter pace.	4)	Pork cutout prices have not found consistent support limiting upside price potential. Demand is good, but not good enough.

Friday Closing Livestock Market Update - Complex Rounds Out the Week on Slightly Lower Tone

GENERAL COMMENTS:

Friday's market wasn't overly eventful as trades were somewhat checked out early for the week and mostly let the contracts either chop sideways or drift lower ahead of Friday's close. It was encouraging; however, to see that Northern cattle traded at mostly $288 which is fully steady with last week's weighted average. December corn is up 7 1/4 cents per bushel and December soybean meal is down $0.30. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 310.99 points.

From Friday-to-Friday livestock futures scored the following changes: October live cattle up $2.47, December live cattle up $3.80; September feeder cattle up $7.60, October feeder cattle up $8.18; October lean hogs down $1.05, December lean hogs up $0.08; December corn up $0.07, March corn up $0.07.

LIVE CATTLE:

It was rather impressive to see the live cattle complex round out the week mixed as although some of the nearby contracts closed slightly lower, the market's deferred contracts were able to still round out the day higher. It may have taken Northern feedlots some time to market their showlists this week, but the wait was worth it as prices were marked this morning at $288 dressed which is fully steady with last week's weighted average. And earlier in the week Southern live cattle traded for mostly $181 which is also mostly steady with the previous week's weighted average. October live cattle closed $0.37 lower at $177.65, December live cattle closed $0.10 lower at $178.50 and February live cattle close steady at $179.60. 

Friday's slaughter is estimated at 118,000 head -- 5,000 head less than a week ago and 3,000 head less than a year ago. Saturday's slaughter is projected to be around 17,000 head. The week's total slaughter is estimated at 620,000 head -- incomparable to last week, but 11,000 head less than a year ago.

Boxed beef prices closed lower: choice down $2.27 ($304.91) and select down $1.47 ($294.17) with a movement of 158 loads (99.65 loads of choice, 13.84 loads of select, 6.39 loads of trim and 38.02 loads of ground beef).

MONDAY'S CATTLE CALL: Steady. Depending how aggressively packers run their kill schedule next week, prices may be able to trade steady again this upcoming week – which would be a win for feedlots.

FEEDER CATTLE:

After rallying to its nearby resistance Thursday afternoon, the feeder cattle complex traded mostly steady to somewhat lower throughout Friday's trade as traders weren't confident about take on that resistance ahead of the weekend. September feeders closed $0.15 lower at $241.90, October feeders closed $0.62 lower at $239.12 and November feeders closed $0.27 lower at $235.20. This past week the market has seen larger runs of calves coming to town, which indicates that the fall run is beginning to get underway. With temperature swings being noticed throughout the vast majority of the country, sickness could be a concern for buyers as freshly weaned calves are highly susceptible to sickness through the weaning process. The Oklahoma Weekly Cattle Auction Summary shared that compared to last week and throughout the entire state, feeder steers traded $1.00 to $3.00 lower and feeder heifers traded $2.00 to $7.00 lower. Steer and heifer calves sold $10.00 to $15.00 lower. The sale report did note that the vast majority of their sales this week were on unweaned calves and that with temperature swings, that buyers were worried about health conditions. The CME feeder cattle index 9/13/2024: up $1.42, $243.32.

LEAN HOGS:

The lean hog complex closed lower as the market as the market seemed to have run out of momentum ahead of the week's close. Between pork cutout values being slightly lower and cash sales seeing less interest late in the week, the lean hog complex was lacking support and traders ultimately decided to let the market drift lower through Friday's end. October lean hogs closed $0.45 lower at $78.45, December lean hogs closed $0.25 lower at $71.30 and February lean hogs closed $0.22 lower at $74.97. The carcass price's pressure came from the $1.77 drop in the belly, the $1.28 drop in the loin and the $1.10 decline in the butt. Hog prices averaged $76.00 on the Daily Direct Afternoon Hog Report, on a total of 1,450 head. Pork cutouts totaled 321.59 loads with 281.09 loads of pork cuts and 40.50 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: down $0.28, $93.90. Friday's slaughter is estimated at 480,000 head -- 2,000 head less than a week ago and 4,000 head more than a year ago. Saturday's slaughter is projected to be around 155,000 head. The CME lean hog index 9/12/2024: down $0.11, $85.35.

MONDAY'S HOG CALL: Steady. It's likely that packers will look to see how demand fairs early next week before they jump too aggressively in the cash market.

Friday Midday Livestock Market Summary - Trader Interest Falls Short of Supporting the Complex

GENERAL COMMENTS:

Even though the Dow Jones is up over 300 points, the livestock complex is trading mostly lower into Friday's noon hour as traders seem eager for the weekend. Some Northern dressed cattle sales have been reported 288 which is steady with last week's weighted average. December corn is up 3 cents per bushel and December soybean meal is down $3.10. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 301.90 points.

LIVE CATTLE:

The live cattle complex is merely chopping sideways into Friday's noon hour as the market seems to be longing for the weekend. It is impressive however that some Northern sales have been reported this morning at $288 dressed which is steady with last week's weighted average. Feedlot managers were hoping to keep the market at least steady this week and Northern sales did just that. Throughout the week Southern live cattle have traded at mostly $180 to $181 which is steady to $1.00 lower than last week's weighted average. A few more sales could develop ahead of the week's end, but largely it looks like the week's trade is done with. October live cattle are down $0.90 at $177.12, December live cattle are down $0.62 at $177.97 and February live cattle are down $0.57 at $179.00.

Boxed beef prices are lower: choice down $2.11 ($305.07) and select down $0.84 ($294.80) with a movement of 97 loads (55.71 loads of choice, 8.87 loads of select, 3.04 loads of trim and 29.84 loads of ground beef).

FEEDER CATTLE:

The feeder cattle complex is skating moderately lower into Friday's noon hour as traders seem exhausted from the week's trade. October feeders are down $1.12 at $238.72, November feeders are down $0.82 at $234.65 and January feeders are down $0.75 at $230.25. But with the combination of the live cattle contracts trading lower and the cash cattle market trading steady to $1.00 lower -- it's not surprising to see traders allowing feeders to drift lower ahead of the week's end as significant ground was gained earlier in the week and business seems to be essentially done for the week.

LEAN HOGS:

The lean hog complex is trading mixed into Friday's noon hour as some of the late spring 2025 contracts are trading mildly higher, but most of the contracts are trading slightly lower. October lean hogs are down $0.12 at $78.77, December lean hogs are down $0.02 at $71.52 and February lean hogs are up $0.02 at $75.22. The lean hog complex seems to have the same lackluster attitude that the cattle complex has but it's also being pressured to trade slightly lower as neither cash sales nor pork cutout values are currently supportive.

The projected lean hog index for 9/12/2024 is down $0.48 at $84.87, and the actual index for 9/11/2024 is down $0.11 at $85.35. Hog prices are lower on the Daily Direct Morning Hog Report, down $0.78 with a weighted average price of $75.94, ranging from $75.00 to $76.00 on 923 head and a five-day rolling average of $77.33. Pork cutouts total 182.69 loads with 162.43 loads of pork cuts and 20.26 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: down $0.24, $93.94.

Friday Morning Livestock Market Update - Hope Increased For Steady Cash Cattle Trade

GENERAL COMMENTS:

Cattle futures have had two days of strength as traders became more optimistic over the potential for cash cattle to trade steady for the week. On Wednesday, some cattle traded $1.00 lower in the South with Thursday showing some trade developing at steady money with last week. That prompted traders to become more optimistic. The weekly export sales report provided little support to the market with sales 31% below the previous week. The WASDE report was not very supportive as the USDA lowered its estimates for steer prices for the next four quarters. Feedlots may gain some confidence to hold for no less than steady cash due to the strength of the futures market over the past two days. Boxed beef prices were mixed with choice down $0.18 and select up $1.26.

Hog futures just could not find support. The losses were not excessive and did not break support, but traders were apathetic throughout the day. The National Direct Afternoon Hog report showed cash weakness with the price down $1.25. It is doubtful packers will need to be aggressive Friday as they have most of their needs covered and have been able to do it at lower prices. Cutouts were positive with a gain of $1.27. This could provide some support to futures but it may only keep them from declining below support. If the futures fall below support, there could be increased long liquidation.

	BULL SIDE		BEAR SIDE
1)	The strength of cattle futures may improve the potential for no worse than steady cash this week. Feedlots may have the confidence to hold.	1)	The packers have purchased cattle ahead over the past weeks which may leave them less aggressive this week as they bid lower for cattle.
2)	Boxed beef may begin to stabilize as prices may have declined sufficiently to stimulate consumer buying.	2)	Boxed beef prices have not found solid support, which may limit the upside price potential.
3)	Hogs continue to move to the market as packers maintain a strong slaughter pace. Good demand keeps pork moving.	3)	Higher hog weights provide more pork for the market, leaving the packers less aggressive as fewer hogs need to be purchased to provide the required tonnage.
4)	The WASDE report provided some optimism for hog prices next year as USDA raised prices for the first and second quarters.	4)	A break below the recent low could trigger liquidation as stops would be hit and selling would increase. Hog futures need underlying support to turn the trend higher.

Thursday Closing Livestock Market Update - Cattle Futures Firm Following Report Release

GENERAL COMMENTS:

Triple-digit gains quickly flooded through the cattle complex as traders focusing on previous market shifts quickly and aggressively became active buyers Thursday. Momentum seen in nearby live cattle and feeder cattle contracts are a combination limited support from Thursday's WASDE report and a renewed late day shift in outside financial markets. October feeder cattle futures became the shining star of the livestock complex Thursday afternoon, leading the market higher with gains of $2.25 per cwt. All nearby cattle trade posted triple digit gains Thursday, which is creating some underlying hope that renewed support will continue to develop through the end of the week. Hog futures remained under pressure Thursday, as traders continue to search for support levels during early September. Hog prices closed lower on the Daily Direct Afternoon hog report, down $1.25 with a weighted average of $76.00 on 2,018 hogs. December corn closed up 1 1/4 at $4.06 and December soybean meal closed up $3.20 at $323.20. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 221.77 at 41,083.48.

LIVE CATTLE:

Live cattle futures posted firmed in late day buyer support as traders not only focused on report data, but also the upward support in financial markets late Thursday helped to stimulate additional buyer support across the cattle complex. The fact that nearby live cattle futures still hover near intermediate term support levels and are well under the 40-day and 100-day moving averages is causing concern about the depth of buyer support still in the market in the absence of "good news" from outside markets. Thursday's export report showed net beef sales of 11,400 mt for 2024 were down 31% from the previous week and 41% from the prior 4-week average. The three largest buyers were South Korea (3,200 mt), Mexico (1,900 mt) and Japan (1,500 mt). The morning WASDE report released Thursday indicated mixed direction for cattle and beef markets. Beef production for 2024 was raised by 59 million pounds as cow slaughter in the second half of the year is expected to increase, and fed steer and heifer carcass weights are heavier. Third quarter steer prices in 2024 are expected to average $188 (down $5.00 from last month) and fourth quarter steer prices are expected to average $183 (down $7.00 from last month). Projections for 2025 steer prices in the first quarter are now expected to average $186 (down $3.00 from last month) and steer prices in the second quarter are expected to average $196 (down $4.00 from last month). Cash cattle markets are still generally quiet Thursday afternoon. A few deals have been reported in parts of Kansas and Nebraska this afternoon at $181 live, steady with last week's weighted averages. Some Southern asking prices remain firm around $182-plus. But in the North asking prices are still not fully established. A light trade was reported in the South yesterday with live deals marked at mostly $180 to $181, steady to $1 lower than the previous week's weighted averages. The North remained very quiet. October live cattle closed $1.08 higher at $178.025, December live cattle closed $1.38 higher at $178.60 and February live cattle closed $1.28 higher at $179.6. 

Thursday's slaughter is estimated at 123,000 head, 1,000 head less than a week ago and 2,000 head less than a year ago. 

Boxed beef prices closed lower: choice down $0.87 ($307.36) and select down $2.63 ($294.38) with a movement of 162.04 loads (108.50 loads of choice, 28.36 loads of select, 3.74 loads of trim and 21.44 loads of ground beef).

FRIDAY'S CATTLE CALL: Steady. Cash markets are still generally undeveloped with just a few deals reported Thursday afternoon as prices are generally steady with last week. This may lead to aggressive end of the week deal making, but there seems to be limited price direction expected.

FEEDER CATTLE:

Feeder cattle futures continue to remain on an aggressive market roll as triple digit gains in all nearby contracts further added to the weekly support developing in feeder cattle markets. With spot month September contracts now trading above $242 per cwt and posting an $8 per cwt gain through the week, traders are now looking at testing support levels set in August. A move above the $244.35 per cwt level could rekindle additional commercial and investment buyer interest back into the feeder cattle complex within the next few days. Underlying support from the monthly WASDE report is helping to bring renewed support to the entire complex at this point. September feeders closed $1.50 higher at $242.05, October feeders closed $2.25 higher at $239.75 and November feeders closed $1.45 higher at $235.475. The CME Feeder Cattle Index for September 10: down $1.14, $241.90.

LEAN HOGS:

Lean hog futures eroded through the day Thursday as trades are having a hard time finding "significant" market support available given upward moves in cattle and financial markets through the last half of the week. The most aggressive pressure developed in spot month October contracts, which continues to add concern to the entire complex with prices hovering near the 40-day moving average. The inability for the complex to hold onto last week's gains and subsequently allowing prices to move below the $80 per cwt price point is creating additional short and long-term market concerns for the entire lean hog complex. Thursday's export sales numbers posted Pork net sales of 29,700 mt for 2024 were up 43% from the previous week and 15% from the prior 4-week average. The three largest buyers were Mexico (14,200 mt), Japan (4,300 mt) and Colombia (2,400 mt). While monthly WASDE report data, also released Thursday posted mixed direction indicators. Pork production for 2024 was increased by 5 million pounds as faster chain speeds in the second half of the year more than offset the industry's lighter carcass weights. The market didn't see much for changes in quarterly barrow and gilt prices as the third quarter of 2024 is expected to average $63 and fourth quarter barrow and gilt prices are expected to average $54 -- both of which are unchanged from a month ago. However, price projections for the first half of 2025 did increase as the first quarter barrow and gilt prices are expected to average $55 (up $1.00) and prices in the second quarter are expected to average $61 (up $1.00). October lean hogs closed $0.85 lower at $78.90, December lean hogs closed $0.75 lower at $71.55 and February lean hogs closed $0.63 lower at $75.20. Thursday's hog slaughter is estimated at 483,000 head, 4,000 head more than a week ago and 1,000 head less than a year ago. Pork Cutouts totaled 376.06 loads with 309.80 loads of pork cuts and 66.26 loads of trim. Pork cutout values are down $1.89 at $92.91. The CME Lean Hog Index for September 10: down $0.28, $85.46.

FRIDAY'S HOG CALL: Steady to $1 Lower. Early week buyer activity is expected to continue to limit additional market aggressiveness by packers before the weekend break. This could lead to price pressure Friday morning.

Thursday Midday Livestock Market Summary - Cattle Find Support While Hogs Regress

GENERAL COMMENTS:

It is a mixed day for the livestock complex as the cattle contracts are trading moderately higher but the lean hog complex is chopping sideways. The cash cattle market still hasn't seen packer interest improve much, but that could change Thursday afternoon. December corn is up 3/4 cent per bushel and December soybean meal is up $2.20. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 42.40 points.

Thursday's export report shared that beef net sales of 11,400 metric tons (mt) for 2024 were down 31% from the previous week and 41% from the prior 4-week average. The three largest buyers were South Korea (3,200 mt), Mexico (1,900 mt) and Japan (1,500 mt). Pork net sales of 29,700 mt for 2024 were up 43% from the previous week and 15% from the prior 4-week average. The three largest buyers were Mexico (14,200 mt), Japan (4,300 mt) and Colombia (2,400 mt).

LIVE CATTLE:

Slowly but surely the live cattle complex is continuing to trend higher as traders are seeming to dip their toes back into the live cattle market following last week's derailment. October live cattle are up $1.12 at $178.07, December live cattle are up $1.17 at $178.35, and February live cattle are up $0.92 at $179.25. The spot October contract remains a sizeable distance from the market's 100-day moving average, so technical resistance shouldn't be an issue throughout the day. More than anything, the market's fate -- higher or lower close -- remains in control of traders as they patiently wait to see how the cash cattle market pans out this week as they're desperate for some better fundamental support. At this point, the cash cattle market remains silent with only a bid in Texas on the table at $181 -- which feedlot managers aren't overly impressed with. Southern asking prices remain firm at $182-plus and are still not established in the North. With lighter showlists in all major feeding regions, it's likely the week's cash cattle trade could be delayed until Friday as feedlot managers aim to keep prices steady this week. There were a handful of cattle traded in the South on Wednesday afternoon at $181, which is steady to $1.00 lower than last week's weighted average, but there weren't enough sold to say that any sort of a market trend was established for the week.

Thursday's WASDE report shared mixed news for the cattle and beef markets of 2024. Beef production for 2024 was raised by 59 million pounds as cow slaughter in the second half of the year is expected to increase, and fed steer and heifer carcass weights are heavier. It was disappointing to see projected fed cattle prices were decreased while beef imports for both 2024 and 2025 were increased. Third quarter steer prices in 2024 are expected to average $188 (down $5.00 from last month) and fourth quarter steer prices are expected to average $183 (down $7.00 from last month). In 2025, steer prices in the first quarter are now expected to average $186 (down $3.00 from last month) and steer prices in the second quarter are expected to average $196 (down $4.00 from last month). 2024 beef imports increased by 140 million pounds, and beef exports for 2024 increased by 50 million pounds. Beef imports for 2025 increased by 10 million pounds, and beef exports for 2025 were increased by 100 million pounds.

Boxed beef prices are higher: choice up $0.44 ($307.80) and select up $1.44 ($295.82) with a movement of 77 loads (57.66 loads of choice, 9.40 loads of select, zero loads of trim and 9.74 loads of ground beef).

FEEDER CATTLE:

With the help of the live cattle complex's higher tone, the feeder cattle contracts are continuing to trade higher. October feeders are up $1.50 at $239.00, November feeders are up $0.97 at $235.00, and January feeders are up $0.90 at $230.45. It is worth noting that traders did advance the spot October contract beyond the market's resistance at $240 but have since worked the contract back below that threshold. That will continue to be a threshold worth monitoring -- and there's a chance that if cash cattle prices trade steady traders could muster up enough support to comfortably advance the market beyond its immediate resistance.

LEAN HOGS:

The lean hog complex is merely chopping sideways as the market seems unfazed by the morning's relatively strong export report and by stronger midday pork cutout values. October lean hogs are up $0.15 at $79.90, December lean hogs are down $0.15 at $72.15, and February lean hogs are down $0.25 at $75.57. At this point the market seems lackluster and as if little will rally traders throughout the afternoon.

The projected CME Lean Hog Index for 9/11/2024 is down $0.11 at $85.35 and the actual index for 9/10/2024 is down $0.10 at $85.46. Hog prices on the Daily Direct Moring Hog report average $76.72, ranging from $74.00 to $79.00 on 1,343 head and a five-day rolling average of $77.38. Pork cutouts total 186.91 loads with 155.87 loads of pork cuts and 31.04 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: up $1.97, $94.88.

Thursday's WASDE report shared mixed news for the pork and hog markets of 2024. Pork production for 2024 was increased by 5 million pounds as faster chain speeds in the second half of the year more than offset the industry's lighter carcass weights. The market didn't see much for changes in quarterly barrow and gilt prices as the third quarter of 2024 is expected to average $63 and fourth quarter barrow and gilt prices are expected to average $54 -- both of which are unchanged from a month ago. However, price projections for the first half of 2025 did increase as the first quarter barrow and gilt prices are expected to average $55 (up $1.00) and prices in the second quarter are expected to average $61 (up $1.00). 2024 pork imports were unchanged from a month ago, but pork exports for 2024 were increased by 60 million pounds. Pork imports for 2025 decreased by 10 million pounds, and pork exports for 2025 were unchanged.