Friday, April 4, 2025

Friday Closing Livestock Market Update - Futures Post Limit Losses

GENERAL COMMENTS:

From Friday to Friday, livestock futures scored the following changes: April Live cattle off $6.20, June Live cattle off $6.65; April Feeder cattle off $7.50, May Feeder cattle off $10.30; April Lean hogs up $0.67, June Lean hogs off $4.23; April Pork cutout off $0.42, May Pork cutout unchanged.

Livestock markets were hit hard once again Friday following aggressive market pressure in nearly all commodity market sectors. The corn complex seems to be the only actively traded commodity market that avoided aggressive losses on Friday and through the end of the week. Not only did aggressive liquidation develop in stock markets, but energy markets also continued lower with crude oil futures falling $4 per barrel and Gold falling over $63 per ounce. All livestock futures hit daily trading limit losses throughout the day, allowing for expanded trade limits Monday. Continued concern about how tariffs will impact the economy and how China's announcement of countermeasure tariffs will further escalate the situation has traders beyond nervous heading into the weekend. Hog prices closed lower on the Daily Direct Afternoon hog report, down $0.27 with a weighted average of $87.4 on 2,167 hogs. May corn closed up 2 3/4 at $4.603 and May soybean meal closed down $4.90 at $283.1. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 2,231.07 at 38,314.86.

LIVE CATTLE:

Live cattle futures turned sharply lower once again Friday. June and October contracts closed limit lower with losses of $6.50 per cwt Friday afternoon. This was enough to allow the entire complex to have expanded trade limits in place Monday morning. The new trading limit for Monday will be $9.75 per cwt. April live cattle futures which were making history just days ago with prices above $210 per cwt, are now only $2.65 per cwt above the $200 per cwt mark. All other contracts have moved below the $200 threshold once again, creating concern about additional liquidation developing across the entire complex in the days and weeks to come. Nearby contracts are still hovering above the 40- and 100-day moving averages, but these trigger points in the market are far from safe following the aggressive market pressure seen through the last half of the trading week. Nearby contracts have plummeted $8 to $9 per cwt over the past two trading sessions, leading to more concern in all segments of the market. Cash cattle markets posted additional activity Friday afternoon with light trade developing in most areas today with Southern live deals marked at mostly $208, $1 to $2 lower than last week's weighted averages. Northern dressed business was done at mostly $335, $4 lower than last week's weighted averages. (Majors paid mostly $335, while a Regional paid as much as $345, steady with last week's wide range of sales). April live cattle closed $5.43 lower at $202.625, June live cattle closed $6.50 lower at $198.20 and August live cattle closed $6.48 lower at $194.7. 

Friday's slaughter is estimated at 109,000 head, 2,000 head more than a week ago and 7,000 head less than a year ago. 

Boxed beef prices closed lower: choice down $1.53 ($338.37) and select down $0.99 ($317.84) with a movement of 131.32 loads (91.79 loads of choice, 15.50 loads of select, 7.99 loads of trim and 16.04 loads of ground beef).

MONDAY'S CATTLE CALL: Steady to $2 Lower. Early week activity is expected to remain at a complete standstill, which will hopefully give both sides time to reassess the overall market direction. The sharp losses in futures trade are likely to put a negative spin on cash values, at least for the short term.

FEEDER CATTLE:

Feeder cattle posted aggressive losses for the second straight trading session Friday. All but April and March 2026 contract months closed locked in limit lower trade of $8.25 per cwt. This move will expand trading limits Monday to $12.25 per cwt creating additional uncertainty and volatility through the market. Over the past two trading sessions, nearby feeder cattle futures have erased nearly all of the gains seen during the month of March. The 40-day moving average, which seemed a safe floor just two days ago has been breached in actively traded May contracts, with most nearby contracts approaching this trigger point at the end of the week. The hope is that the weekend break will allow for a calming effect before markets open Monday morning, but weekends can be tricky as market sediment can easily move in either direction in the absence of additional trade activity during weekend breaks. April feeders closed $5.98 lower at $279.425, May feeders closed $8.25 lower at $274.875 and August feeders closed $8.25 lower at $281.05. The CME Feeder Cattle Index for April 2: up $0.02, $291.95.

LEAN HOGS:

Lean hog futures followed the rest of the livestock markets, and most other markets lower Friday as traders remain extremely concerned about future demand. April contracts were lightly traded and ended unchanged as the current tariff levels do not impact immediate activity, but the rest of the complex posted aggressive losses. June and July futures closed $4 per cwt lower, which is the daily trading limit. Closing locked limit down for the day will cause expanded trading limits to be in effect for Monday. This will put Monday's trading limit for all lean hog futures trade at $6 per cwt. The hope is that emotions and trader activity will calm slightly over the weekend break, allowing for markets to take a more levelheaded approach early next week. But every time expanded limits are enacted, the potential for even more active liquidation exists. April lean hogs closed steady, May lean hogs closed $3.45 lower at $85.125 and June lean hogs closed $4.00 lower at $91.55. Friday's hog slaughter is estimated at 486,000 head, 15,000 head more than a week ago and 4,000 head more than a year ago. Pork Cutouts totaled 346.24 loads with 304.09 loads of pork cuts and 42.15 loads of trim. Pork cutout values are up $0.64 at $94.34. The CME Lean Hog Index for April 2: down $0.08, $88.72.

MONDAY'S HOG CALL: Steady. Sharp losses in futures trade and expanded trade limits Monday could add increased volatility to the complex, but packers continued need for short-term demand is likely to keep cash values from moving significantly lower in the immediate future.



Friday Midday Livestock Market Summary - Futures Tumble Further

GENERAL COMMENTS:

Livestock futures markets are seeing a second consecutive day of sharp losses in cattle contracts with traders focusing on the uncertainty surrounding how tariff levels and corresponding reactions from China will impact overall demand and price levels in the near and distant future. At this point, there is very little firm information about how long current market impacts will be seen, especially in livestock and meat markets. But traders are taking precautions and sharply lower prices reflect this market uncertainty. May corn is up 1 3/4 at $4.593 and May soybean meal is down $3.30 at $284.7. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 1,430.22 at 39,115.71.

LIVE CATTLE:

Live cattle futures are trading sharply lower Friday morning in reaction to additional tariff concerns and announcements that China is implementing corresponding tariffs starting next week. The overall lack of support in all livestock markets is following the pattern of sharp losses in the stock market and financial trade. Current losses of $4 to $5.50 per cwt seen in nearby contracts are still below daily trade limit levels of $6.50 per cwt. But daily limit moves are not out of the question through the end of the session. Cash cattle markets remain moderately active through the morning Friday with light trade reported in parts of the South at $208, $1 to $2 lower than last week's weighted averages, but generally steady with Thursday's very light scattered transactions. Northern business Thursday had dressed deals marked at mostly $335, with a regional packer paying as much as $345, generally steady with last week's wide range. It is expected that additional activity will develop through the afternoon Friday, although given the pressure in futures trade and outside markets, it is uncertain if packers will become more aggressive at this point. April live cattle are $3.73 lower at $204.325, June live cattle are $5.15 lower at $199.55, August live cattle are $5.13 lower at $196.05. 

Boxed beef prices are Higher: choice up $1.04 ($339.41) and select up $0.51 ($318.35) with a movement of 47.58 loads (36.33 loads of choice, 6.59 loads of select, zero loads of trim and 4.66 loads of ground beef).

FEEDER CATTLE:

Feeder cattle futures are sharply lower Friday morning with traders continuing to focus on the potential that this week's round of tariffs will have prolonged reactions. The announcement that China is implementing offsetting tariff actions starting next week is another indication of market problems. April contracts are showing the least pressure at this point, although losses nearing $6 per cwt are usually seen as disastrous for the market. But May and August futures are trading near $8 per cwt lower at midday, which is dangerously close to the $8.25 per cwt daily trading limit. A close at this limit would indicate expanded limits Monday. And if the continued bearishness holds over the weekend, this could continue to wipe out all of the gains seen this year. April feeders are $5.48 lower at $279.925, May feeders are $7.28 lower at $275.85 and August feeders are $7.15 lower at $282.15.

LEAN HOGS:

Lean hog futures have moved sharply lower, also focused on tariff levels and the announcement that China will impose tariffs starting next week. This has moved June futures to the $4 per cwt daily trading limit with most other nearby contracts near that level at midday. A close at these levels would indicate expanded trading limits Monday, creating potential additional pressure early next week. April lean hogs are $0.18 higher at $87.55, May lean hogs are $3.33 lower at $85.25 and June lean hogs are $3.95 lower at $91.60. Hog prices are higher on the Daily Direct Morning Hog report, up $0.04 with a weighted average of $87.38, ranging from $84.00 to $88.00 on 3,811 head with a five-day rolling average of $88.17. Pork cutouts totaled 181.39 loads with 162.71 loads of pork cuts and 18.68 loads of trim. Pork cutout values are up $5.12 at $97.08.




Friday Morning Livestock Market Update - Cattle Trade May Develop at Steady Cash

GENERAL COMMENTS:

Traders were rattled as substantial selling pressure permeated throughout the equity markets and other commodities. There was positive news as Mexico and Canada's livestock and beef are not impacted by the tariffs under the USMCA agreement. Tariffs have been put on beef imported from Australia, which could be supportive for the U.S. market. There were a few cattle traded on Thursday at steady money with last week. Packers may not bid higher than steady money to purchase cattle this week due to market uncertainty. Feedlots may be willing to sell cattle to avoid the potential for lower cash prices. Weekly export sales were better than the previous week with 9,300 metric tons (mt) reported. Sales will be closely monitored in the coming weeks to see if tariffs will impact international demand. Boxed beef prices were lower with choice down $1.53 and select down $0.99.

Hog futures were lower and suffered only double-digit losses. This was supportive given the substantial pressure seen on some of the other markets. Futures need to find support soon, or further liquidation could be triggered. International demand has been good with weekly export sales totaling 53,000 mt and a marketing-year high. Packers were not aggressive on Thursday with the National Daily Direct Afternoon report down $1.21. Pork cutouts gained $1.11. Packers may be willing to pay more for hogs Friday as they will want to complete purchases for the week. Futures may bounce ahead of the weekend if the outside markets find some footing.

BULL SIDE BEAR SIDE
1)

Higher tariffs on Australian beef may be supportive for the U.S. market as less beef may be imported.

1)

A slowing of the economy and a potential recession could impact beef demand and reduce prices despite tight cattle supplies.

2)

If the selling in the equity market settles down and finds some support, traders will be willing to continue to support the cattle markets.

2)

International beef demand may slow, allowing for more beef to be available to the domestic market.

3)

Hog futures held up well despite the pressure seen in many other markets. They had much of it already factored in.

3)

Hog futures have not been able to find consistent support from either cash or cutouts. Demand has not increased as anticipated.

4)

Pork export sales to Mexico should be unhindered. They are a large buyer of U.S. pork.

4)

China is imposing a 34% tariff on all U.S. imports. They are a large buyer of pork and would impact sales to the country.




Thursday, April 3, 2025

Thursday Closing Livestock Market Update - Cattle Futures Tumble Lower

GENERAL COMMENTS:

Live cattle futures gave back all of Wednesday's gains and more, with active price pressure seen in all live cattle and feeder cattle contracts. Feeder cattle futures were most impacted with May contracts trading nearly $5 per cwt lower at the end of the session. Hog prices closed lower on the Daily Direct Afternoon hog report, down $1.21 with a weighted average of $87.67 on 3,580 hogs. May corn closed down 1/4 at $4.575 and May soybean meal closed up $0.80 at $288.00. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 1,679.39 at 40,545.93.

LIVE CATTLE:

Live cattle futures offset any momentum seen midweek with traders aggressively pushing prices lower as limited buyer activity developed given tariff uncertainty. The active buyer support over the past couple of months has left nearby live cattle futures in an interesting position. Even though fundamental beef demand is expected to remain firm through the summer months, and traders are not totally soured on the cattle market, with current price levels, traders at these price levels are becoming spooked much more easily. This is allowing for prices to develop the significant market shifts seen this week. Momentum is the biggest factor in market direction at this moment, and as seen over the past two days, it can easily shift and move the market in both directions. Cash cattle markets have developed some light trade is being reported in parts of Nebraska, Majors are paying $335 to $338 (the higher end is on special types), while a Regional has paid $345. Southern bids are at $208, which is well below current asking prices of around $212. Packer inquiry should continue to improve as the day progresses. In the morning release of the weekly export sales report, net sales of 9,300 MT for 2025 were up 16 percent from the previous week, but down 19 percent from the prior 4-week average. Increases primarily for South Korea (3,400 MT, including decreases of 500 MT), Japan (2,600 MT, including decreases of 800 MT), Hong Kong (800 MT, including decreases of 100 MT), Mexico (600 MT, including decreases of 100 MT), and China (500 MT, including decreases of 100 MT), were offset by reductions for Indonesia (200 MT). Exports of 14,900 MT were up 6 percent from the previous week and 2 percent from the prior 4-week average. The destinations were primarily South Korea (5,200 MT), Japan (3,300 MT), China (2,500 MT), Mexico (1,100 MT), and Taiwan (1,100 MT). April live cattle closed $2.33 lower at $208.05, June live cattle closed $2.70 lower at $204.70 and August live cattle closed $2.75 lower at $201.175. 

Thursday's slaughter is estimated at 121,000 head, 2,000 head more than a week ago and 2,000 head less than a year ago. 

Boxed beef prices closed lower: choice down $1.53 ($338.37) and select down $0.99 ($317.84) with a movement of 131.32 loads (91.79 loads of choice, 15.50 loads of select, 7.99 loads of trim and 16.04 loads of ground beef).

FRIDAY'S CATTLE CALL: Steady. With a few cash sales starting to develop, cash activity early Friday morning will likely be generally steady and overall muted. Packers and feeders are expected to wait to see how markets open Friday to get a better sense of overall market direction given the recent yo-yo effect seen in futures prices.

FEEDER CATTLE:

Feeder cattle futures led the complex lower Thursday with traders quickly focusing on the overall lack of uncertainty surrounding overall long-term demand given the aggressive price pressure in financial markets and implications that tariffs may have in the months to come. May contracts led the complex lower, closing $4.80 per cwt lower. Even with this latest market shift lower, nearby contracts are still fundamentally in an upward market trend given the recent optimism and buyer support. April feeders closed $3.48 lower at $285.4, May feeders closed $4.80 lower at $283.125 and August feeders closed $4.40 lower at $289.3. The CME Feeder Cattle Index for April 1: up $0.66, $291.93.

LEAN HOGS:

Lean hog futures ended the session weaker Thursday, but given the aggressive losses in both cattle trade and the stock market, the downward market pressure could have been much more significant. Spot April futures fell only 7.5 cents per cwt, becoming by far the most stable contract in livestock markets Thursday. More active pressure was seen in other nearby lean hog trade, with losses in May through August contracts now pushing price levels below the 40-day moving average. But the recent pressure in lean hog prices over the last month is likely to limit aggressive short-term pressure without solid news of demand shifts in the pork market. According to the weekly export sales report, net sales of 53,000 MT for 2025--a marketing-year high--were up 66 percent from the previous week and 88 percent from the prior 4-week average. Increases were primarily for Mexico (30,600 MT, including decreases of 300 MT), China (10,300 MT, including decreases of 100 MT), Japan (3,400 MT, including decreases of 300 MT), South Korea (3,000 MT, including decreases of 500 MT), and Colombia (1,800 MT, including decreases of 200 MT). Exports of 32,900 MT were up 4 percent from the previous week and 1 percent from the prior 4-week average. The destinations were primarily to Mexico (12,200 MT), South Korea (5,200 MT), Japan (4,100 MT), China (2,700 MT), and Colombia (2,300 MT). April lean hogs closed $0.08 lower at $87.375, May lean hogs closed $0.55 lower at $88.575 and June lean hogs closed $0.98 lower at $95.55. Thursday's hog slaughter is estimated at 488,000 head, 1,000 head less than a week ago and 0 head less than a year ago. Pork Cutouts totaled 347.75 loads with 305.60 loads of pork cuts and 42.15 loads of trim. Pork cutout values are up $1.11 at $94.81. The CME Lean Hog Index for April 1: up $0.15, $88.80.

FRIDAY'S HOG CALL: Steady. Initial bids are expected generally stable Friday morning. There remains uncertainty surrounding outside market direction and tariff implications, but it is uncertain if these shifts will impact short-term cash values at the end of the week.




Thursday Morning Livestock Market Update - Outside Market Pressure May Push Futures Lower

GENERAL COMMENTS:

Cattle futures extended the gains Wednesday with the April through October live cattle contracts closing at new highs. Feeder cattle followed a similar pattern with the August and later contracts closing at new highs. Cattle futures have been impressive as demand has remained strong and cattle supplies remain tight. Futures are expected to trade lower Thursday due to the impact of the tariff announcement on Wednesday, resulting in substantial pressure on the overnight equity markets. It is difficult to determine the impact, but there is fear that a trade war could escalate, increasing prices for food and other goods. Cash cattle have not yet traded this week, with some offers posted $2.00 higher than last week. Boxed beef declined with choice down $2.32 and select down $3.24.

Hog futures closed mixed Wednesday, rebounding from earlier lows. Futures were mixed with some light spread trading. Traders seemed more cautious over the potential impact of tariffs on international pork demand. Packers were more aggressive as they stepped up to increase ownership of hogs. The National Daily Direct Afternoon Hog report increased $0.62 with a weighted average of $88.88. There is a strong possibility they need more hogs and will pay more Thursday. Pork cutouts did not fare well as prices declined $1.81. Some pressure might be seen on futures due to the outside pressure from other markets in response to the tariffs, but there may not be as much impact as traders have been cautious over the past month.

BULL SIDEBEAR SIDE
1)

New highs in cattle futures are a testimony to the market's resilience and continued consumer demand.

1)

Outside market pressure in response to tariffs may trigger substantial selling in cattle futures.

2)

The feedlots may be determined to receive at least steady money for cash this week, gaining confidence due to the strong futures market.

2)

Packers may not be willing to pay more for cattle as export demand has been slowing. The weekly export sales report is expected to show lower sales.

3)

Hog futures continue to hold support with buying interest on price weakness. Pork demand should remain steady or increase over time.

3)

Hog weights continue to increase with the weekly average reaching 291.4 pounds, up 0.7 pounds from the previous week and up 4.3 pounds from a year ago.

4)

Increasing tariffs on many items will tighten consumers' budgets. Buying habits will change, and pork may be a recipient due to value.

4)

Lower cutouts and outside market pressure due to the implementation of tariffs might push hog futures lower.




Thursday Midday Livestock Market Update - Cattle Futures Retract on Tariff Concerns

GENERAL COMMENTS:

Sharp losses in cattle futures have stolen the overall attention of all livestock markets Thursday. Active losses in financial markets -- highlighted by a 1,200 to 1,500 point loss in the Dow Jones Index -- have kept most traders extremely cautious to say the least. Cattle futures remain sharply lower with triple-digit losses across the board, while lean hog futures are mixed to mostly lower, but with much less market volatility. May corn is up 2 1/2 at $4.603 and May soybean meal is up $2.30 at $289.5. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 1,140.14 at 41,085.18.

LIVE CATTLE:

Live cattle futures have given back all midweek gains and even more as trade and tariff concerns rocking financial markets are having a significant impact on livestock trade and the cattle market specifically. All nearby and most deferred live cattle contracts are trading between $2 and $3 per cwt lower, with April futures hovering at $208 per cwt following a $2.12 per cwt loss. Selling pressure has continued to develop through the morning, which may lead to additional pressure leading into closing bell. Cash cattle markets remain generally quiet, although a few more bids are now on the table. In Nebraska, major packers are bidding $335, while a regional packer has bid $345. Asking prices in the North are still not well established. Southern bids are at $208, which is well below current asking prices of around $212. Packer inquiry should continue to improve as the day progresses, but significant trade volume may be delayed until later Thursday or Friday. Thursday morning's export sales report showed net sales of 9,300 metric tons (mt) for 2025, up 16% from the previous week, but down 19% from the prior 4-week average. Increases primarily for South Korea (3,400 mt, including decreases of 500 mt), Japan (2,600 mt, including decreases of 800 mt), Hong Kong (800 mt, including decreases of 100 mt), Mexico (600 mt, including decreases of 100 mt, and China (500 mt, including decreases of 100 mt), were offset by reductions for Indonesia (200 mt). Exports of 14,900 mt were up 6% from the previous week and 2% from the prior 4-week average. The destinations were primarily to South Korea (5,200 mt), Japan (3,300 mt), China (2,500 mt), Mexico (1,100 mt), and Taiwan (1,100 mt). April live cattle are $1.95 lower at $208.425, June live cattle are $2.48 lower at $204.925, August live cattle are $2.63 lower at $201.30. 

Boxed beef prices are mixed: choice up $0.43 ($340.33) and select down $0.02 ($318.81) with a movement of 51.28 loads (34.82 loads of choice, 9.88 loads of select, zero loads of trim and 6.58 loads of ground beef).

FEEDER CATTLE:

Feeder cattle futures are leading the market lower with the general pressure on all cattle trade Thursday morning. The market has additional concerns about these newly instated tariffs will impact not only short-term trade and buying decisions, but also long-term market activity. The focus on overall economic health continues to be weighed heavily on overall cattle trade which may have a longer-term impact on overall beef demand. April feeders are $3.50 lower at $285.375, May feeders are $4.15 lower at $283.775 and August feeders are $3.93 lower at $289.775.

LEAN HOGS:

Lean hog futures are trading mostly lower as the general market tone Thursday remains weak. But compared to the rest of the livestock trade, lean hog futures seem to have worked most of the tariff and demand concerns into the complex. With nearby contracts trading in the bottom half of short-term market levels, it is uncertain just how much more active selling pressure will develop given the current fundamental market support. According to the weekly export sales report, net sales of 53,000 mt for 2025 -- a marketing-year high -- were up 66% from the previous week and 88% from the prior 4-week average. Increases were primarily for Mexico (30,600 mt, including decreases of 300 mt), China (10,300 mt, including decreases of 100 mt), Japan (3,400 mt, including decreases of 300 mt), South Korea (3,000 mt, including decreases of 500 mt), and Colombia (1,800 mt, including decreases of 200 mt). Exports of 32,900 mt were up 4% from the previous week and 1% from the prior 4-week average. The destinations were primarily to Mexico (12,200 mt), South Korea (5,200 mt), Japan (4,100 mt, China (2,700 mt), and Colombia (2,300 mt). April lean hogs are $0.28 higher at $87.725, May lean hogs are $0.60 lower at $88.525 and June lean hogs are $1.00 lower at $95.525. Hog prices are lower on the Daily Direct Morning Hog report, down $1.62 with a weighted average of $87.34, ranging from $84.00 to $89.00 on 2,899 head with a five-day rolling average of $88.28. Pork cutouts totaled 157.32 loads with 139.89 loads of pork cuts and 17.43 loads of trim. Pork cutout values are down $1.96 at $91.96.



Wednesday, April 2, 2025

Wednesday Closing Livestock Market Update - Cattle Futures Surge Higher

GENERAL COMMENTS:

Live cattle futures rallied higher once again, with strong triple-digit gains seen in April through August contracts. This move helped push spot month April contracts above $210 per cwt, once again setting contract highs for the complex. Traders continue to aggressively focus on beef market support, which is helping to firm the livestock complex. But much less aggressive support was seen in deferred live cattle and feeder cattle trade. While lean hog futures eroded during midweek trade. Hog prices closed higher on the Daily Direct Afternoon hog report, up $0.62 with a weighted average of $88.88 on 7,996 hogs. May corn closed down 4 at $4.578 and May soybean meal closed down $5.10 at $287.2. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 235.36 at 42,225.32.

LIVE CATTLE:

Live cattle prices posted triple-digit gains Wednesday with April through August contracts leading the upward market shift midweek. April futures have not surpassed $210 per cwt, setting another contract high at $210.37 per cwt. The aggressive market shift higher has increased spot April futures $18 per cwt over the last month, helping to rekindle technical buyer support through the complex. June contract led the market higher with gains of nearly $2 per cwt, but the support seemed to be much less aggressive through the last half of 2025, although prices still were able to close higher Wednesday. Cash cattle markets remain quiet with just a few asking prices noted around $212 in the South, but they are still not established in the North. Bids continue to be very hard to find. Significant trade volume will likely be delayed until Thursday or Friday. The inability of feeders to command steady to higher prices at the end of the week if futures markets hold strong would be disappointing heading into the first trade week of April. April live cattle closed $1.25 higher at $210.375, June live cattle closed $1.98 higher at $207.4 and August live cattle closed $1.60 higher at $203.925. 

Wednesday's slaughter is estimated at 124,000 head, 1,000 head more than a week ago and 1,000 head more than a year ago. 

Boxed beef prices closed lower: choice down $2.32 ($339.9) and select down $3.24 ($318.83) with a movement of 114.51 loads (74.10 loads of choice, 16.88 loads of select, 14.98 loads of trim and 8.55 loads of ground beef).

THURSDAY'S CATTLE CALL: Steady. Very limited cash market activity has developed at this point, which is creating some uncertainty about the ability of feeders to demand steady to higher prices at the end of the week. If futures prices continue to move higher, anything less than steady money will be viewed as a significant disappointment. There is still some uncertainty about how many cattle packers need to access this week.

FEEDER CATTLE:

Feeder cattle futures followed the live cattle complex higher Wednesday with light to moderate buyer support seen through most of the complex. Nearby contracts seemed little impressed through most of the session with the triple-digit gains in live cattle futures, although late 2025 contract months were more influenced by the optimism seen in the complex. The uncertainty of short-term economic issues is being focused on near-term buyer interest and activity, and for now, trades seem to be less concerned about pressure in the beef market through the middle of 2026. This may continue to add premium to deferred contracts through the remainder of the spring. April feeders closed $0.60 higher at $288.875, May feeders closed $0.78 higher at $287.925 and August feeders closed $1.30 higher at $293.7. The CME Feeder Cattle Index for March 31: up $0.25, $291.27.

LEAN HOGS:

Lean hog futures ended the session Wednesday mostly lower. But limited buyer support in April contracts pulled the complex from posting a fully red board as April contracts closed 7.5 cents per cwt higher. This move is not likely significant long term, but the fact that the slight end-of-day support held prices from moving below the 40-day moving average is creating a sense of stability for the time being. The rest of the complex remained under light to moderate pressure. Even though summer contracts slid lower, the fact that prices moved off of session lows is helping to create a small sense of stability through the complex. April lean hogs closed $0.08 higher at $87.45, May lean hogs closed $0.35 lower at $89.125 and June lean hogs closed $0.50 lower at $96.525. Wednesday's hog slaughter is estimated at 485,000 head, 2,000 head less than a week ago and 3,000 head less than a year ago. Pork Cutouts totaled 332.17 loads with 307.56 loads of pork cuts and 24.61 loads of trim. Pork cutout values are down $1.81 at $93.7. The CME Lean Hog Index for March 31: up $0.15, $88.65.

THURSDAY'S HOG CALL: Steady. Early cash hog bids are expected generally steady Thursday morning. The lack of aggressive market losses late Wednesday in futures trade is likely to keep cash values generally stable at least until buyers get a feeling for market moves through the last half of the week.




Wednesday Midday Livestock Market Summary - Live Cattle Futures Surge Higher

GENERAL COMMENTS:

Strong triple-digit gains in nearby live cattle futures contracts are the key driver of market activity through Wednesday morning. Although limited additional new direction seems to be uniformly seen through the complex, the focus on continued firm beef values is keeping traders active in summer live cattle contracts. Feeder cattle futures remain very lightly traded with nearby contracts seeing limited interest and only moderate price shifts. Although some additional price support is seen in late 2025 feeder cattle contracts, limited market volume may keep this shift subdued in the near future. Lean hog futures remain under moderate pressure, with deferred contracts leading prices lower. May corn is down 3 1/2 at $4.583 and May soybean meal is down $4.30 at $288.00. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 68.22 at 42,058.18.

LIVE CATTLE:

Live cattle futures have regained additional momentum through midweek with prices moving through last week's highs of $109.55 per cwt in April contracts. This ability to move to additional heights over the past couple of days has helped to rekindle buyer support in both nearby and deferred contracts. Most of the buyer support and aggressive price movement have been contained to April through August contracts with traders focusing on summer demand and the potential for further wholesale and retail beef price support over the coming months. Cash cattle markets remain at a general standstill midweek with activity through the morning and a very slow start to the day with just a few asking prices noted around $212 in the South, but they are still not established in the North. Bids are very hard to find. Significant trade volume will likely be delayed until Thursday or Friday. April live cattle are $1.58 higher at $210.7, June live cattle are $2.13 higher at $207.55 and August live cattle are $1.55 higher at $203.875.

Boxed beef prices are Lower: choice down $1.34 ($340.88) and select down $2.05 ($320.02) with a movement of 64.38 loads (41.53 loads of choice, 9.70 loads of select, 7.99 loads of trim and 5.16 loads of ground beef).

FEEDER CATTLE:

Feeder cattle futures are holding onto light to moderate gains following the support in live cattle trade through the morning. Narrow support is seen in April and May contracts, with prices 12 cents higher in each of these contract months. But further support is seen in fall 2025 contracts with prices nearing $1 per cwt through the morning. The potential for tighter supplies through the end of the year and continued long-term strength in beef values well past the current run higher is helping to sustain longer-term support through the feeder cattle complex. Given the recent support in the market, nearby and deferred contracts are holding well above both 40-day and 100-day moving averages as contracts continue to reach for new contract highs. April feeders are $0.85 higher at $289.125, May feeders are $0.70 higher at $287.85 and August feeders are $1.13 higher at $293.525.

LEAN HOGS:

Lean hog futures remain under pressure as traders continue to battle the uncertainty of tariff implications and economic concerns for both short- and longer-term buying decisions. Spot month April contracts are holding very narrow losses at midday, although summer contracts are trading with triple-digit losses as concerns of moving further lower keep buyers on the sidelines. May through July futures have dipped below the 40-day moving average during morning trade, and a close below this threshold could spark additional liquidation in the near future. April lean hogs are $0.08 lower at $87.3, May lean hogs are $0.65 lower at $88.825 and June lean hogs are $1.38 lower at $95.65. Hog Prices are higher on the Daily Direct Morning Hog report, up $0.88 with a weighted average of $88.96, ranging from $85.00 to $89.50 on 3,605 head with a five-day rolling average of $88.52. Pork Cutouts totaled 201.96 loads with 177.56 loads of pork cuts and 24.40 loads of trim. Pork cutout values are down $2.40 at $93.92.




Wednesday Morning Livestock Market Update - Traders Focus On Current Demand Rather Than Tariffs

GENERAL COMMENTS:

Cattle futures experienced strong gains on Tuesday with contracts reaching back near their highs. Traders seemed more focused on cattle supplies and good demand rather than tariffs. It will take some time to see the impact on international demand. Domestic demand remains strong as boxed beef prices continue to increase. Prices jumped $6.96 for choice and $2.06 for select. Strong consumer demand may keep feedlots holding for higher cash as initial offers are $2.00 higher than last week. However, it is uncertain how aggressive packers need to be, as they had purchased some cattle ahead. Feedlots have been holding cattle the past few weeks as cash has been strong, but now they may be more aggressive in moving those cattle rather than holding out another week. Feeder cattle led the charge on Tuesday as demand for feeder cattle in the country remains strong.

Hog futures found buying interest Tuesday after the decline on Monday with all contracts posting triple-digit gains. Traders were aggressive buyers, anticipating the possibility of limited impact from tariffs. Demand might improve as consumers may reduce beef consumption due to high prices, and include more pork in their diets. Support did not come from cash or cutouts as they continued to struggle. The National Daily Direct Afternoon Hog report showed cash down $0.23. Pork cutouts fell $1.94. The variability of cutouts may not be due to demand, but rather the plentiful supply of pork, as slaughter remains strong with higher hog weights. The strong slaughter pace may be a better indicator of demand rather than just focusing on cutout prices.

BULL SIDE BEAR SIDE
1)

The strong rebound in cattle futures may signal that the price retracement has been completed and the uptrend may continue.

1)

Packers may not bid aggressively for cattle this week, as it seems they have already purchased cattle ahead.

2)

Boxed beef prices continue to move to new highs as consumers prefer beef in their diets despite the higher prices.

2)

Feedlots may be willing to sell cattle at steady cash and move those cattle they have been holding that are at higher weights. They may not want to take a chance on cash prices next week.

3)

Hog futures moved back into the trading range as traders remain interested in buying on price weakness.

3)

Hog futures did not find support from cash or cutouts, which may limit the upside price potential.

4)

Hog futures still have chart gaps that may be filled at some point. Gaps generally are filled during the life of the contract.

4)

Traders remain uncertain over the impact tariffs might have on international demand for pork. Reduced international demand would increase domestic supplies.




Tuesday, April 1, 2025

Tuesday Closing Livestock Market Update - Traders Push Contracts Higher

GENERAL COMMENTS:

The livestock complex was well supported by traders as all three of the markets closed higher Tuesday afternoon. Still no cash cattle trade has developed, and trade will likely be delayed until Thursday or Friday. May corn is up 4 1/2 cents per bushel and May soybean meal is down $0.40. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 11.80 points.

LIVE CATTLE:

It was a positive day for the live cattle complex as the market successfully rounded out the day fully higher. Aside from seeing boxed beef prices jolt higher, the market was mostly encouraged to trade higher by traders' simple willingness to again support the complex. After reaching a new contract high again just last week in the spot June contract, traders were leery late last week/early this week of being too supportive, but thankfully strong beef demand has helped turn the futures complex higher again. April live cattle closed $1.32 higher at $209.12, June live cattle closed $1.77 higher at $205.42 and August live cattle closed $2.30 higher at $202.32. No cash cattle trade developed throughout the day but asking prices are noted at $212 in the Southern plains. 

Tuesday's slaughter is estimated at 123,000 head -- 1,000 head less than a week ago and 2,000 head more than a year ago.

Boxed beef prices closed higher: choice up $6.96 ($342.22) and select up $2.06 ($322.07) with a movement of 95 loads (59.73 loads of choice, 18.70 loads of select, 7.31 loads of trim and 9.46 loads of ground beef).

WEDNESDAY'S CATTLE CALL: Steady. Given that packers have successfully been able to buy up some inventory in the last two weeks, it's most likely that fed cash cattle prices will trade steady/somewhat lower later this week.

FEEDER CATTLE:

The feeder cattle complex only grew stronger and stronger as Tuesday traded onward as the market saw most of its contracts close anywhere from $2.00 to $3.00 higher. April feeders closed $1.82 higher at 288.27, May feeders closed $2.65 higher at $287.15 and August feeders closed $2.90 higher at $292.40. It was especially interesting to note the change in the contract's relationship between the live cattle and feeder cattle contracts. Lately, the feeder cattle complex has simply doggishly followed the live cattle market's direction, but today the feeder cattle contracts were the leader of the bullish move. At Oklahoma National Stockyards in Oklahoma City, Oklahoma, compared to last week feeder steers and steer calves traded steady to $5.00 lower. Feeder heifers and heifer calves sold steady to $5.00 higher, except those weighing 500 to 700 pounds, which traded $1.00 to $5.00 lower. Feeder cattle supply over 600 pounds was 69%. The CME feeder cattle index 3/31/2025: down $0.48, $291.02.

LEAN HOGS:

The lean hog complex was also able to capitalize on the positive push from traders as its contracts closed higher. April lean hogs closed $0.35 lower at $87.37, June lean hogs closed $1.75 higher at $97.02 and July lean hogs closed $1.75 higher at $97.57. Today's move stems solely from the market's technical support as both the cash market and pork cutout values closed lower, which is not helping lend any support to the lean hog contracts. Hog prices closed lower on the Daily Direct Afternoon Hog Report, down $0.23 with a weighted average price of $88.26 on 8,610 head. Pork cutouts totaled 353.31 loads, with 314.58 loads of pork cuts and 38.73 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: down $1.94, $95.51. Tuesday's slaughter is estimated at 489,000 head -- 1,000 head less than a week ago and 2,000 head more than a year ago. The CME lean hog index 3/28/2025: down $0.28, $88.50.

WEDNESDAY'S HOG CALL: Steady/somewhat higher. Packers will need more hogs this week. While it's difficult to predict the market's price direction, I beli




Tuesday Midday Livestock Market Update - Traders Turn the Contracts Higher

GENERAL COMMENTS:

The livestock contracts are all trading higher into Tuesday's noon hour as traders have changed their demeanor toward the livestock complex. Still no cash cattle trade has developed, and the week's trade will likely be again delayed until Friday. May corn is up 4 3/4 cents per bushel and May soybean meal is down $0.30. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 130.17 points.

LIVE CATTLE:

The live cattle complex may have initially been trading lower this morning, but as the market nears the noon hour stronger tones have overcome the live cattle market. April live cattle are up $0.55 at $208.35, June live cattle are up $0.82 at $204.50 and August live cattle are up $1.40 at $201.42. Following the market's lower ascend on both Friday and Monday, traders now again sit in a better technical position as they are no longer up against immediate resistance pressure. From a fundamental standpoint, boxed beef prices are showing ample support, but no cash cattle trade has developed yet and won't likely develop until Friday. And yes, your choice cuts really are up over $7.00 this morning -- that's no April Fool's joke! Asking prices are noted in the South at $212 but are still not established or known for the North.

Boxed beef prices are higher: choice up $7.60 ($342.86) and select up $2.20 ($322.21) with a movement of 55 loads (32.81 loads of choice, 11.24 loads of select, 4.32 loads of trim and 6.62 loads of ground beef).

FEEDER CATTLE:

The feeder cattle complex is "feeling its oats" this morning as the market is charging mostly $2.00 higher into Tuesday's noon hour. The spot May contract is still about $2.00 lower than the market's resistance threshold, so it's likely that traders will be able to maintain their stronger tune throughout the afternoon without too much opposition. April feeders are up $1.77 at $288.22, May feeders are up $2.47 at $286.97 and August feeders are up $2.55 at $292.05.

LEAN HOGS:

Although pork cutout values are trading lower, the lean hog complex is also trading higher as the market is rallying on some of the positive energy stemming from the cattle complex's change in direction. April lean hogs are up $0.40 at $88.12, June lean hogs are up $2.57 at $97.85 and July lean hogs are up $2.47 at $98.30. The biggest hindrance to the morning's pork cutout value was the $4.75 decline in the belly.

The projected lean hog index for 3/31/2025 is up $0.15 at $88.65 and the actual index for 3/28/2025 is down $0.28 at $88.50. Hog prices are lower on the Daily Direct Morning Hog Report, down $0.37 with a weighted average price of $88.08, ranging from $85.00 to $90.00 on 338 head and a five-day rolling average of $87.92. Pork cutouts total 201.96 loads with 177.56 loads of pork cuts and 24.40 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: down $0.53, $96.92.




Tuesday Morning Livestock Market Update - Futures Find Little Direction

GENERAL COMMENTS:

Live cattle exhibited a second day of weakness Monday due to the uncertainty of the impact on demand once sweeping tariffs are implemented. There may be a limited impact on beef demand overall, but a decrease in exports would leave more beef available for domestic consumption and reduce beef prices somewhat. Canada and Mexico have begun discussions to revisit the USMCA agreement, with initial talks positive. Traders saw that the corn supply for the coming year should be plentiful. The Prospective Plantings report showed 95.326 million acres are estimated to be planted. Cattle were sold at steady to $1.00 lower last week in most cases, with a regional packer paying $10.00 higher for some cattle. The packer was short-bought and needed cattle. However, most business was done at steady to lower prices. This may have set the stage for this week, as feedlots may need to move cattle that they have been holding in hopes of higher prices. Boxed beef remains strong with choice up $2.44 and select up $1.33 on Monday.

Hog futures showed a large divergence with the April contract Monday, closing $1.02 higher, while later contracts closed lower. The April contract will expire on April 14 and is adjusting to the underlying cash. Hog traders are uncertain over the impact of the sweeping tariffs on international pork demand. The National Daily Direct Afternoon Hog report showed cash up $0.19. It is unusual for packers to bid higher for hogs on Monday. This may result in further cash gains Tuesday as they want to gain ownership early. Pork cutouts gained $0.89 with cutout values at $97.45.

BULL SIDE BEAR SIDE
1)

The implementation of sweeping tariffs leaves traders uncertain about international demand. However, it may have a limited impact on beef prices due to continued tight supplies.

1)

Cattle futures have not returned to contract highs after last week's bullish report. Price resistance may have been reached, leaving the market vulnerable to further selling pressure.

2)

Boxed beef prices remain strong and April is the beginning of the grilling season. This should support beef demand.

2)

Beef export sales were lower last week and sweeping tariffs could further impact international demand.

3)

Packers paying higher cash for hogs on Monday is a good sign that they may be short-bought and will pay more Tuesday as they procure sufficient hogs for slaughter.

3)

Hog futures are slowly trending lower with limited fundamental news supporting the market.

4)

The Easter season is coming and pork demand is higher during that time. Packers are preparing for increased demand.

4)

Traders would prefer to sell price rallies rather than buy the breaks. This continues to build strong technical resistance.