Wednesday, August 9, 2017

Wednesday Midday Livestock Market Update

GENERAL COMMENTS: 
The lean hog board is mixed near the top of the noon hour with nearbys gaining on deferreds.
Light to moderate cattle trading is evident near midday in several states. Live sales in the South (and Colorado) are marked at $115, about $1.50-2.50 lower than last week. Some dressed deals in the North have been reported at $185, $2 plus lower than weighted averaged calculated a week earlier. The Fed Cattle Exchange Auction report today listed a total of 1,659 head, with 518 actually sold with a weighted average price of $115.04 According to the midday report, the national hog base is quotable due to rules of confidentiality. Corn futures near the top of the noon hour are slightly higher in slow pre-report trading. Equities at midday are lower with the Dow off 49 points and the Nasdaq down by 15.
LIVE CATTLE:
Live contracts have fallen to lows not seen since late April. Currently, prices are off 130 to 207. The market's struggle seems to be fueled by follow-through selling, technical bearishness, and outside markets/concerns. Reports of lower cash sales are also feeding the sell-off, but it's a little tough at this point to separate the bird from the egg in terms of causation. Beef cut-outs are mixed at midday, up 0.17 (select, $197.03) to off .08 (choice, $202.17) with moderate box movement (45 loads of choice cuts, 19 loads of select cuts, 8 loads of trimmings, 22 loads of coarse grinds).
FEEDER CATTLE:
Feeders are following the negative lead of live cattle, and then adding a few extra bearish twists of their own. Prices are currently in the red by 295 to 373 points. Spot August is now trading close to $7 below the cash index.
LEAN HOGS:
Given the ugly fall-out in cattle futures, lean hog contracts are holding up quite well at midday. Prices are no worse than mixed with Aug-Feb gaining ground on deferreds. Bull spreading and short covering appear to be supportive of the front end. Carcass value at midday is essentially steady with lower fresh cuts essentially offset by stronger sales of picnics, ribs, and hams. Pork cut-out: $95.38, off 0.05. CME cash lean index for 08/07: 85.76, off 0.34 (DTN Projected lean index for 08/08: 85.62, off 0.14).

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