USDA forecasts beef production above 2018

In its first 2019 projections for U.S. livestock and poultry products, USDA today forecast beef production above 2018 on higher slaughter and heavier carcass weights and pork production to increase as growth in farrowings and pigs per litter supports larger pig crops.Hog weights are also forecast higher in 2019, USDA said in the May World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report.Broiler production is expected to surpass 2018 as the industry responds to favorable broiler prices. Turkey production is forecast to slowly increase as prices move above year-earlier levels beginning in late 2018.For 2018, the total red meat and poultry production forecast is lowered from last month. Cattle slaughter in the second quarter has been slower than anticipated, and the pace of marketings in the second half of the year is slowed. However, carcass weights are increased for second half of the year, partly offsetting the reduction in the slaughter forecast.The second-quarter pork production forecast is reduced on the current pace of slaughter, but the forecast for the second half of the year is unchanged. Broiler production is adjusted for March slaughter data, the forecast is unchanged. Turkey production forecasts are reduced from the previous month on slow recovery in demand and lower first-quarter-production.
Exports
Larger beef supplies and firm global demand are expected to support stronger U.S. beef exports in 2019 relative to 2018. Pork exports are forecast to increase next year as expanding supplies and competitive prices support demand for U.S. pork. Beef and pork imports are forecast higher in 2019.Broiler exports are forecast higher on expected continued gains in foreign demand. Changes to the 2018 red meat and poultry exports reflect March trade data, with no change to the outlying forecast. No change is made to the forecasts for beef imports for the outlying quarters, but pork imports are raised from the previous month on the current pace of trade.