Activity in feedlot country should be typically quiet, restricted to the assessment of new showlists. Our guess is that late-month ready numbers will be about steady with last week. It's a sure bet that beef producers will be eager to price fed cattle higher based upon Friday's late-cash success. The cattle board Monday should open significantly higher, supported by late October cash strength and technical buying interest.
The cash hog trade seems likely to open the last short week of October with mixed prices and uneven buying strategies based on geographical supply and demand differences. Hogs on the East Coast where slaughter capacity has not increased are available, while hogs in the western regions of the country appear to be finding a small degree of competition thanks to greater kill capacity (e.g., Seaboard/Triumph). Lean hog contracts should open moderately higher, supported by spillover buying and an imbalance between packing capacity and late-year market hog numbers.
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Impressive packer spending in feedlot country on Friday suggests that early fourth quarter beef supplies are at least being temporarily pushed by fall product demand.
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USDA reported the retail of all fresh beef value for September at $5.75 per pound, down 1% from August but 1% above last year. The retail choice beef value was nearly $5.94 per pound, which was 2% lower than August but 3% higher than last year.
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| 2) |
The weak basis and strong premiums in the late fall and winter live cattle contracts will hearten producers resolve to resist lower bids from packers.
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For the week ended Oct. 22, there were modest declines in the noncommercial long side of live cattle futures and a modest increase in the short side for noncommercials.
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China continues to battle African swine fever, with the situation worsening after initial attempts to contain the virus.
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For the week ended Oct. 22, noncommercial traders reduced their long position in lean hog futures by 1,900 contracts, resulting in a net-long of 4,200.
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| 4) |
The futures market was quite bullish last week, with strong gains not only on the nearby but the summer months as well. The nearby contract found more than $6, as the spot cash hogs that had been heading lower found mild support. Hog buyers are keeping prices slightly supported in the western portions of production country, not indicative of stronger seasonal demand for pork but rather an imbalance between packer capacity (increasing) and current availability of hogs. Such an imbalance could continue for weeks to come.
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Seasonal highs for the cutout are likely behind us and carcass value is likely headed lower, but declines are going to be limited until hogs show up in volume. Hams and bellies will be key over the next few weeks for how much lower the cutout can move.
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CATTLE:(Drovers Journal) -- There are many different options to consider in a winter feeding program. Cost of purchased grains or hay, nutritional value of feedstuffs, the equipment needed to feed, stockpiled forages, the types of cattle being fed. All of these considerations will weigh on determining what direction to go with feeding cattle in the winter. Here are a few tips from Erika Lundy, Iowa State Extension beef specialist, to think of for winter feeding:
1. Grazing Corn Stalks or Cover Crops An underutilized source of winter nutrition are corn stalks. States in the Corn Belt have lots of access to corn stalks, but a limiting factor for many producers is the lack of fencing surrounding fields and water. A hot wire fence is one simple solution if it is too late to build a barb wire fence. However, getting stock water to fields might be more difficult, so grazing crops fields might be contingent on water access.
"Usually with corn stalks, we start to see a decrease in value after about 60 days after that corn grain has been harvested," Lundy says.
Grazing corn stalks in late fall can help take pressure off of traditional pasture allowing for stockpiling grass or another fallow grain field can be planted to a cover crop mix to graze in the winter.
"If we can extend our grazing season we are much better off on cost savings than harvesting and keeping stored winter feed," Lundy says. In the first year of grazing cover crops Lundy recommends using a single forage like wheat or rye to try out the program. Then a producer can start integrating cocktail mixes with brassicas and legumes once they're more comfortable.
2. Feeding Hay A concern Lundy is hearing from producers is the price of hay. With higher priced hay it is even more important that it is all utilized, so reducing waste should be a priority.
Lundy believes producers should evaluate their hay feeders to make sure stored forages are being utilized to help cost efficiency. Feeding a total mixed ration with grain and ground up hay is another way to help control waste, too.
3. Feeding Grains "Our grains, corn and beans, both are pretty cheap, relatively speaking right now," Lundy says. This presents an opportunity to add additional grain sources such as corn, corn co-products and soybean hulls to diets that can help stretch forages while increasing nutrients like protein in diets.
However, she advises producers to seek guidance when looking at changing their rations.
"When we s tart talking about trying to change from what we typically do it's a good idea to work with a local nutritionist or your local extension specialist to help you analyze some of those differences," Lundy says.
HOGS: (Time) -- The cult of Starbucks' Pumpkin Spice Latte has got nothing on the McRib devotees. McDonald's is once again bringing back the cult favorite back to its menu. And this time, it can be delivered to your doorstep. The love-it-or-hate-it, barbecue, sauce-smothered, boneless pork sandwich will be available at 9,000 locations for a limited time this year, starting Oct. 29. And, for the first time, McDonald's is teaming with Uber Eats to make it even more accessible to its passionate fan base.
"While McDonald's has ushered in many new items this year -- such as fresh beef in our quarter-pound burgers -- we know our fans love this limited time classic," said Mike Haracz, McDonald's manager of culinary innovation chef in a press release. "That's why we wanted to bring the McRib to as many fans as possible this year.]The McRib is kind of like a prairie dog in that it pops up at random locations -- and your local Micky D's might not be one of them, even though the distribution is fairly widespread this year. To help you out, the fast food chain conveniently has a McDonald's Finder app to see if it's on the menu at a nearby store. The UberEats app will also help you locate the sammich. The company didn't say how long McDonald's menus will feature the McRib this time around. (It was last available in November 2017.) Fans, though, rejoiced on social media, while haters... well, they hated.
The McRib made its debut in 1981, but was pulled from the McDonald's menu four years later due to poor sales. It made another run from 1989 through 2005. Since then, it has been a seasonal item, and the scarcity has made it a legend among fast food fanatics.
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