Monday, May 13, 2019

Monday Midday Livestock Market Summary - Sharp Losses Follow Outside Pressure

General Comments
Sharp losses are seen in all livestock trade through the morning with increased pressure developing in outside markets. The concern of widespread trader liquidation on global export trade concerns is not only limiting trade volume, but also pushing prices sharply lower. Corn futures are lower in light trade. July corn futures are 4 cents lower. Stock markets are lower in light trade. Dow Jones is 665 points lower with Nasdaq down 256 points.
LIVE CATTLE:
Live cattle futures remain under moderate to sharp pressure midday Monday, although prices have quickly pulled back from session lows. The softness in feeder cattle trade and overall weakness in most commodity markets is creating liquidation through the entire complex. Overall lack of direction is expected to be seen through the entire livestock market, as traders have quickly and aggressively retracted gains seen last week as nervousness about how the reaction in outside markets following the announcement that China is ramping up tariff levels on imports. Cash cattle markets remain quiet following lower trade last week. Show list distribution and inventory taking is the main focus through the day. The early-week trade over the last few weeks is sparking interest early in the week. Boxed Beef cut-outs at midday are higher, $0.96 higher (select) and up $0.69 per cwt (choice) with light movement of 48 total loads reported (23 loads of choice cuts, 14 loads of select cuts, no loads of trimmings, 11 loads of ground beef).
FEEDER CATTLE:
Active losses have quickly flooded back into the cattle complex with traders erasing Friday gains. The concern surrounding trade with China and the inability to continue to move beef product through the upcoming summer months. August futures are holding a $2.40 per cwt loss, falling to $144.42 through late-morning trade. The overall pressure in the complex is being driven by overall bearishness through outside markets as stocks and most other commodities have fallen sharply through the morning. Not only are traders concerned about trade with China, but still uncertainty when it comes to a trade deal with Japan is creating pressure in cattle trade.
LEAN HOGS:
Strong triple-digit losses have flooded back into livestock trade as all markets have seen increased market pressure following Friday's tariff increases and China announcing it will increase tariffs on an additional $60 billion of products. Even though nearby futures have backed away from session lows, nearby contracts are trading $1.80 to $2 per cwt lower with increased overall weakness seen through the entire complex. Even though swine flu is expected to continue to strengthen overall pork exports, the tensions with China is expected to limit overall pork sales despite the need to supply product to the country. Cash prices are higher on the National Direct morning cash hog report. The weighted average price added $0.08 per cwt at $80.01 per cwt with the range from $72.00 to $83.00, on 6,122 head reported sold. Cash prices are unreported due to confidentiality on the Iowa/Minnesota Direct morning cash hog report. Pork values surged higher following a $11.43 per cwt rally in belly cuts. Pork cutouts added 2.09 per cwt at $88.25 per cwt with 78 loads traded. Lean hog index for 5/9 is $82.80 up 0.04, with a projected two-day index $83.04 up 0.24.

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