Thursday, December 19, 2019

Thursday Midday Livestock Market Summary - Livestock Trade Unsure Where to Go Next

General Comments
It's almost as if the board is looking to the cash market to say, "Hurry up and do your job and then we can do ours." The board continues to trade on both sides of steady as the market looks for sheer direction. March corn is up 3/4 cent per bushel and January soybean meal is down $3.90. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 110.04 points, and the NASDAQ is up 46.94 points.
LIVE CATTLE
Live cattle contracts are disappointing at the noon hour, as earlier in the day, the market's undertone was strong and contracts were trending higher. But as the noon hour approaches, contracts have dipped lower than the day's initial open. The market's inability to decipher where to trend to next comes from being caught up in the holiday season and the inability to draw major trade volume to the marketplace, as most are checked out and waiting for the new year. December live cattle are down $0.32 at $121.92, February live cattle are down $0.57 at $125.55 and April live cattle are down $0.55 at $126.70.
Cash cattle trade is starting to heat up. Light trade has developed in the South at $120, mostly $1.00 higher than last week's weighted average. But in the North, there has been some cattle reported at $192 -- $2.00 higher that last week's weighted average. Live cattle are also trading in Nebraska at $120, $1.00 higher than last week's weighted average.
On Friday, another Cattle on Feed report is set to be released. Analysts' average projects are: on-feed Dec. 1, 101.9%; placed in November, 100.9%; marketed in November, 97.3%. Knowing that the report is to come out only two trading days before the Christmas holiday leaves little room for the market to react to the report. Secondly, if analysts' projections hold true, the report should have little to no impact on the current market.
Boxed beef prices are slightly higher: choice steady and unchanged at $209.57 and select is up $0.50 ($202.07) with a movement of 55 loads (33.37 loads of choice, 13.85 loads of select, 0 loads of trim and 7.97 loads of ground beef).
FEEDER CATTLE
Opening steady with Wednesday's close, feeder cattle contracts stepped up and traded higher only to slide lower at the noon hour. January feeders are down $0.12 at $144.42, March feeders are down $0.60 at $144.30 and April feeders are down $0.50 at $146.42. Seeing that cash cattle are starting to trade, it would be surprising to see feeder cattle contracts strengthen throughout the day.
LEAN HOGS
Presenting an even display of higher and lower contracts, the lean hog market enters the noon hour with some positive support. February lean hogs are up $0.67 at $70.57, April lean hogs are up $0.02 at $77.25 and May lean hogs are down $0.10 at $83.85. Trending slightly and steadily higher on the future's board, if the cash market can keep steady, positive gains in the lean hog sector may be able to excel after the first of the year.
The projected lean hog index for 12/18/19 is down $0.42 at $60.23, and the actual index for 12/17/19 was reported at $60.65, up $0.43. Hog prices on the National Direct Morning Hog Report are higher, up $0.12 with a weighted average of $48.10, ranging from $42.00 to $49.02 on 3.960 head sold and a five-day rolling average of $48.25. Pork cutouts totaled 185.99 loads with 173.77 loads of pork cuts and 12.22 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: up $1.53 at $78.82.

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