Friday, March 6, 2020

Friday Midday Livestock Market Summary - Cattle Contracts Finding New Low

General Comments

Livestock contracts would easily all agree that the best thing that could happen would be if the day was cut short and the market closed for the weekend at noon. As the day tracks onward contracts dip lower and live cattle contracts especially continue to plummet. April live cattle are down $1.93 at $106.725, April feeder cattle are down $3.25 at $130.4, April lean hogs are up $0.25 at $65.625, May corn is down 5 3/4 cents per bushel and May soybean meal is up $0.90. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 664.36 points and NASDAQ is down 274.12 points.

LIVE CATTLE
If you can't wrap your head around how much the coronavirus has affected the live cattle contracts, go peek at the April live cattle contract chart -- it's utterly brutal. The complex is trading anywhere form $0.47 to $1.92 lower; considering that's nowhere near the limit position, is Friday's trade really that awful? Friday may not be locked in at a limit loss, but given the fact that the complex has been steadily dropping for the last month, means that a lot of position has been lost in the last 60 days. 

Midmorning the April board broke below the lows set in September when the Holcomb fire erupted.
April live cattle are down $1.75 at $106.90, June live cattle are down $1.42 at $101.20 and August live cattle are down $1.22 at $102.52. The country remains quiet at midday following two days of light to moderate trading. Southern live deals had a full range of $112 to $113, mostly $113, $2 lower than the previous week, while Northern dressed business ranged from $180 to $182, $4.00 to $6.00 lower than last week's weighted average basis Nebraska.

Boxed beef prices are higher: choice up $0.32 ($207.57) and select up $2.23 ($203.29) with a movement of 63 loads (30.77 loads of choice, 5.67 loads of select, 10.75 loads of trim and 16.00 loads of ground beef).

FEEDER CATTLE
Feeder cattle contracts follow behind the live cattle contracts lead and head for lower prices once again. Although the feeder cattle complex isn't hitting new lows, the volatility rooted in the market is fierce. March feeders are down $2.45 at $131.17, April feeders are down $3.22 at $130.42 and May feeders are down $3.22 at $131.22.

LEAN HOGS
Even though the cattle contracts are having a tumultuous Friday, the lean hog market is faring "OK" considering everything. Nearby contracts are bouncing back and forth from trading steady to slightly higher, and deferred contracts are trading anywhere from $0.17 to $0.72 lower. April lean hogs are up $0.55 at $65.92, June lean hogs are steady at $79.37 and July lean hogs are down $0.15 at $80.45.

The projected lean hog index for 3/4/2020 is up $0.33 at $56.79 and the actual index for 3/3/2020 is up $0.24 at $56.46. Hog prices are lower on the National Direct Afternoon Hog Report, down $0.93 with a weighted average of $50.57, ranging from $45.00 to $50.76 on 4,908 head and five-day rolling average of $50.48. Pork cutouts total 164.09 loads with 147.47 loads of pork cuts and 16.62 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: down $0.39, $66.65. 


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