GENERAL COMMENTS:
Holidays come as bitter-sweet days for market participants as the shortened weeks throw off normal trade. Wednesday's trade was mostly uneventful other than the baffling bullishness that the cattle contracts are pushing. As a "Designated-Bear" (proudly coined by John Harrington), I'd love to believe that these higher prices aren't dangerously volatile, but knowing the raw facts of the industry's current make-up makes it hard to believe that this green close isn't far-fetched when fundamentally the math just doesn't add up. Hog prices closed higher on the National Direct Afternoon Hog Report, up $0.20 with a weighted average of $28.66 on 7,670 head. September corn is up 9 cents per bushel and December soybean meal is up $8.70. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 77.91 points and NASDAQ is up 95.86 points.
LIVE CATTLE:
The live cattle market closed higher (notably higher in most contracts) and continues to discount the bearish factors of the market. As Southern live cattle prices dance below the $100 market, and as corn prices start to bounce off recent lows, the market leaves many producers skeptical and not understanding where this bullish mindset is coming from. August live cattle closed $1.02 higher at $97.30, October live cattle closed $0.95 higher at $100.67 and December live cattle closed $0.85 higher at $104.50. Cash cattle trade came in through the day in bits and pieces where Southern cattle traded live for $92 to $96 and Northern cattle ranged from $152 to $155. Wednesday's slaughter is estimated at 121,000 head - 1,000 head more than a week ago and 1,000 head shy of a year ago.
Boxed beef price closed lower: choice down $1.59 ($205.38) and select down $1.47 ($198.43) with a movement of 193 loads (105.24 loads of choice, 27.27 loads of select, 18.15 loads of trim and 42.70 loads of ground beef).
THURSDAY'S CASH CATTLE CALL: Steady with the week's trend. Now that some Southern cattle have traded, the market will mostly likely wrap up the week trading within the parameters that have already been set, but could trickle a little lower too.
FEEDER CATTLE:
Feeder cattle contracts traded sharply lower into Wednesday's afternoon, but as the afternoon progressed, the feeder cattle contracts shot higher and closed $0.22 to $1.42 higher. Earlier in the day, the market was leery of the live cattle market's excitement as fundamentals scream for lower prices and the cash cattle market erodes, but yet live cattle contracts looked for higher ground and come Wednesday afternoon the feeder cattle market jumped on the bullish bandwagon. August feeders closed $0.22 higher at $133.07, September feeders closed $0.65 higher at $134.02 and October feeders closed $0.80 higher at $134.90.
The countryside continues to sell feeder cattle and calves exceptionally well despite looming fears of how the industry is going to process through the backlog of cattle and how long that may take. At Huss Livestock Market in Kearney, Nebraska, compared to two weeks ago, yearling steers sold $3.00 to $4.00 stronger and yearling heifers sold $2.00 stronger. Demand was good from start to finish and quality was marked as average. The CME feeder cattle index 6/30/2020: down $0.29, $129.13.
LEAN HOGS:
The lean hog contracts couldn't be budged with anything -- a stronger cash price nor a stronger cutout value could rally the industry higher through Wednesday and ultimately the market closed mostly lower. July lean hogs closed $0.37 lower at $44.80, August lean hogs closed $0.05 higher at $49.07 and October lean hogs closed $1.07 lower at $48.27. Pork cutouts totaled 368.52 loads with 324.71 loads of pork cuts and 43.80 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: up $0.50, $63.62. Wednesday's slaughter is estimated at 469,000 head, up 1,000 head from a week ago and 9,000 head less than a year ago. The CME lean hog index 6/29/2020: up $0.01, $45.24.
THURSDAY'S CASH HOG CALL: Steady. Seeing that the market's strength has carried over the last two days for the cash market leads one to believe that Thursday may be able to sneak higher prices out of the market as the week wraps up early for the Fourth of July holiday.
 |
| #completeherdhealth |
No comments:
Post a Comment