Heading into the weekend, the unanswered questions of this week are, "how are fat cattle going to round out the week's trade?" With only a small sampling of cattle traded as of this point, there's still time yet this week for business to be conducted. Hog prices closed lower on the National Direct Afternoon Hog Report, down $0.31 with a weighted average of $61.31 on 6,857 head. December corn is steady and December soybean meal is steady. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 157.51 points and NASDAQ is down 274.00 points.
From Friday to Friday, livestock futures scored the following changes: October live cattle up $2.63, December live cattle up $4.72; November feeder cattle up $7.75, January feeder cattle up $8.58; December lean hogs down $1.45, February lean hogs down $1.38.
LIVE CATTLE:
This week's cash cattle trade is going into overtime! Feeders had a sour taste of last week's cash cattle trade as the market veered lower and knew that, if they were going to get steady to higher prices, they were going to have to step up their game. As of closing Friday, less than 50,000 head have sold this week and Friday's movement was relatively light, indicating that one of two options could happen: Option one is that packers up their bids and buy cattle late Friday afternoon or early Saturday; option two is that this week's volume goes light and next week the pressure resumes. If feeders aren't able to sell the number of cattle they'd like to this week, they could be anxious to sell early next week, but it's important to remember that when feeders rally together, they can leverage their position against packers and more easily move the market.
This week's live cattle market was favorable to feedlots as the market scaled higher and boxed beef prices even printed stronger later in the week. December live cattle closed $0.32 higher at $108.30, February live cattle closed $0.02 higher at $110.40 and April live cattle closed $0.12 higher at $113.65. For the week's cash cattle trade that has occurred, Southern cattle sold for $106, which is steady with last week's business, and Northern cattle sold $103 to $104, which is $1.00 softer than last week's trade. Friday's slaughter is estimated at 114,000 head, 11,000 head more than a week ago and 4,000 head less than a year ago. Saturday's kill is projected to be around 64,000 head and Thursday's slaughter was revised to 110,000 head.
For the week choice cuts averaged $207.15 (down $1.88 from last week) and select cuts averaged $189.84 (down $1.54) and the week's total boxed beef movement accumulated to 745 loads of cuts, grinds and trim.
Boxed beef prices closed higher: choice up $0.78 ($208.10) and select up $0.01 ($191.24) with a movement of 106 loads (55.02 loads of choice, 25.50 loads of select, 7.78 loads of trim and 17.66 loads of ground beef).
MONDAY'S CASH CATTLE CALL: Steady to somewhat higher. It's hard to call next week's trade before this week's business really wraps up. Next week's business will largely be contingent on how this week's wrap concludes.
FEEDER CATTLE:
The feeder cattle market was the fuel the fire needed in order to roll the cattle markets higher this week. Week-over-week gains were utterly phenomenal for the feeder cattle market as November feeders gained $7.75 from last Friday and January feeders rallied $8.58 from last Friday. Traders were looking for a market to invest within and, thankfully for cattlemen, the corn market scaled lower, giving the feeder cattle market free rein to scale higher. November feeders closed $1.67 higher at $137.40, January feeders closed $2.77 higher at $134.12 and March feeders closed $2.55 higher at $133.52. South Dakota's Weekly Summery shared that, compared to last week, steer and heifer calves sold $1.00 to $3.00 higher, and yearling feeder steers and heifers traded $1.00 to $3.00 lower. Overall demand was good this past week and notably higher than a week ago, which was antagonized by the board's higher trend. Winter weather did make marketing calves difficult in some regions throughout the country and led to lighter receipts this past week. Heading into next week's trade a larger run of calves is expected to hit the market again as prices trended modestly higher and roads become more favorable for traveling. The CME feeder cattle index for Oct. 29: up $2.42, $136.76.
LEAN HOGS:
Heading into the weekend, deferred lean hog contracts got to close on a positive note. While the cattle complex stole the week's attention and interested traders more so than the lean hog market; as resistance levels remain lofty, the hog market simply scaled lower this past week. December lean hogs closed $0.05 lower at $65.57, February lean hogs closed $0.05 lower at $65.55 and April lean hogs closed $0.07 higher at $68.40. Pork cutouts totaled 312.76 loads with 278.52 loads of pork cuts and 34.23 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: down $3.77, $83.80. Friday's slaughter is estimated at 485,000 head, 1,000 head less than a week ago and 4,000 head less than a year ago. Saturday's kill is projected to be around 251,000 head, and Thursday's slaughter was revised to 483,000 head. The CME lean hog index for Oct. 28: down $0.78, $75.49.
MONDAY'S CASH HOG CALL: Lower. The cash hog market has been dancing on both sides of steady, but as the futures markets deems lower, the market could trade softer next week unless cutout values find robust support.
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