GENERAL COMMENTS:
It was a good week for the livestock contracts as steady gains were achieved early in the week and Friday's weaker close didn't deteriorate too much of the market's position. Hog prices were lower on the National Direct Afternoon Hog Report, down $0.48 with a weighted average of $56.73 on 5,444 head. March corn is up 6 1/4 cents per bushel and January soybean meal is up $0.40. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 37.90 points and NASDAQ is up 111.45 points.
From Friday to Friday livestock futures scored the following changes: December live cattle up $2.53, February live cattle up $2.60; January feeder cattle up $5.23, March feeder cattle up $4.63; December lean hogs up $1.75, February lean hogs up $1.90.
LIVE CATTLE:
Friday's cash cattle trade didn't come to fruition like feedlots had hoped, but given that most feedlots sit with current showlists, they have some room to roll cattle over and begin negotiations all over again next week without having to worry profusely about getting them sold at Monday's first whistle. Friday's trade didn't amount to much of anything as cash cattle buyers were happy to take a long weekend and traders did much of the same. December live cattle closed $0.75 lower at $110.62, February live cattle closed $0.92 lower at $113.25 and April live cattle closed $0.47 lower at $116.95. There was some light clean-up trade that took place Friday, but largely prices were steady with the rest of the week's business and only a small sampling traded at the week's end. Thursday's slaughter is estimated at 1,000 head. Friday's slaughter is estimated at 115,000 head, steady with a week ago and 2,000 head more than a year ago. Saturday's slaughter is projected to be around 88,000 head.
Beef Net sales of 15,500 mt were reported for 2020, a marketing-year low, but up noticeably from the previous week and from the prior four-week average. The three primarily increases were for China (2,000 mt, including decreases of 100 mt), Japan (1,800 mt, including decreases of 2,700 mt), Kuwait (100 mt).
Thursday's actual slaughter data shared that steer carcass weights are on the rise again. For the week ending Nov. 14, steers averaged 930 pounds (up 6 pounds from the previous week) and heifers averaged 846 pounds (steady with a week ago).
Boxed beef prices closed lower: choice down $2.21 ($242.85) and select down $0.22 ($220.68) with a movement of 51 loads (29.50 loads of choice, 6.56 loads of select, 7.63 loads of trim and 7.38 loads of ground beef).
MONDAY'S CASH CATTLE CALL: Higher. Feedlots know that they have a fine opportunity to move the market. If the board cooperates, pushing the market higher shouldn't be all that difficult so long as feedlots work together and commit to selling at their asking prices.
FEEDER CATTLE:
As trader's interest for the cattle complex dwindled and as corn prices crept to $0.05 and $0.06 stronger in nearby contracts, the feeder cattle market sank lower into Friday's close. January feeders closed $0.35 lower at $139.82, March feeders closed $0.27 lower at $139.00 and April feeders closed $0.07 lower at $140.32. Iowa's weekly feeder cattle summary shared that compared to last week feeder steers weighing 300 to 599 pounds sold $5.00 higher to $6.00 lower and steers weighing 600 to 949 pounds sold steady to $3.00 higher. Feeder heifers weighing 300 to 449 pounds sold $3.00 to $8.00 lower, heifers weighing 450 to 699 pounds sold $5.00 lower to $6.00 higher and heifers weighing 700 to 950 pounds sold $1.00 higher to $9.00 lower. The CME feeder cattle index for Nov. 25: down $0.53, $136.90.
LEAN HOGS:
The lean hog contracts closed lower heading into the weekend as traders interested and willing to invest into the complex were hard to come by. December lean hogs closed $0.30 lower at $65.87, February lean hogs closed $0.42 lower at $67.25 and April lean hogs closed $0.37 lower at $70.37. It was interesting to see Friday's cutout value jump $1.61 following the Thanksgiving holiday. If the cutout value can find some ground to stand on and rally into next week, that could be the factor that helps rally the hog contracts out of their current steady and sideways trend. Pork cutouts totaled 214.07 loads with 181.14 loads of pork cuts and 32.93 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: up $1.61, $79.96. The CME lean hog index for Nov. 24: down $0.32, $67.38. Thursday's slaughter is estimated at 2,000 head. Friday's slaughter is estimated at 480,000 head, 5,000 head less than a week ago and steady with a year ago. Saturday's slaughter is projected to be around 380,000 head.
Pork net sales of 18,800 mt reported for 2020 were down 35% from the previous week and 47% from the prior four-week average. The tree primarily increases were for Mexico (9,400 mt, including decreases of 600 mt), Japan (3,900 mt, including decreases of 200 mt) and China (2,500 mt, including decreases of 600 mt).
MONDAY'S CASH HOG CALL: Lower. Monday will likely be a busy day of catching up following the shortened Thanksgiving week. Packers may be interested in buying hogs, but advancing the cash market most likely won't suit them.
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