GENERAL COMMENTS:
Although both the live and feeder cattle futures are mixed, after Wednesday's depressing trade the contracts will gladly take any support the market cares to lend. Lean hog futures were pulled down to trade doggishly like the rest of the livestock sector Wednesday but have since corrected their direction and are back to trading higher. March corn is down 4 1/4 cents per bushel and March soybean meal is down $6.40. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 241.08 points and NASDAQ is down 161.08 points.
LIVE CATTLE:
Though this week's downtime of packing plants due to weather-inflicted challenges is a much smaller setback than the plant fire in Holcomb, Kansas, or the plants shut down due to COVID-19, it seems like the cattle market should be running out of wild cards as it's been a bumpy roller coaster ride the last couple of years. On the forefront of everyone's mind in the beef sector is seeing what this week's slaughter will amount to, and how aggressive packers plan to be in the weeks coming to make up for the tonnage lost this past week. The futures contracts aren't trading with much confidence as the market is managing a lot of moving pieces. February live cattle are up $0.12 at $115.42, April live cattle are down $0.87 at $123.27 and June live cattle are down $0.62 at $120.00. If Friday can post an encouraging beef export report, we could see some slight positivity creep into the marketplace as packers would be reassured demand is widespread, which could help drive their need for cash cattle. Speaking of cash cattle, the market is still painstakingly quiet as packers are holding tight, letting the week play out before they pull the trigger on cash cattle offers. There has been some buzz that some major packers in Nebraska are offering to "call in" at $180, but that comes as a slap in the face to feedlots as they are asking $188 in the North and Southern feedlots are asking $116-plus. This week's movement is bound to be slim as feedlots sit in an OK position to roll cattle over into next week's showlists as they know the cash cattle market has got to advance from its current levels.
Boxed beef prices are higher: choice up $1.99 ($239.50) and select up $1.73 ($227.37) with a movement of 42 loads (24.08 loads of choice, 5.96 loads of select, 4.36 loads of trim and 8.00 loads of ground beef).
FEEDER CATTLE:
With there being a slight regression in Thursday's corn prices, the feeder cattle contracts have gingerly started to trade mixed with plenty of diverse feelings still surrounding the complex. March feeders are up $0.40 at $138.82, April feeders are down $0.27 at $142.47 and May feeders are down $0.15 at $145.10. With uncertainty in the live cattle market given the quiet cash cattle trade this week and packing plants being shut down, it's hard for the feeder cattle market to get overly excited when corn prices are as strong as they are and their exiting outlet (the packing industry) has been thrown another wild card this week.
LEAN HOGS:
Following Wednesday's downward progression, lean hog futures are back to trading higher but in a cautious manner heading into Thursday afternoon trade. Traders have been willing to grow the contracts to significantly higher levels, but with further evaluation, traders have lessened their "full-steam-ahead" attitude and want to see continued fundamental support before investing much more into the market. April lean hogs are up $0.47 at $85.37, June lean hogs are up $0.10 at $92.72 and July lean hogs are up $0.30 at $92.67. Hog enthusiasts are hopeful Friday's export data will share positive light amid the weather challenges that have set production back this week and comfort traders that indeed the market's underlying tone is still bullish.
The projected lean hog index for 2/16/2021 is up $1.02 at $76.53, and the actual index for 2/15/2021 is up $0.97 at $75.51. Hog prices are higher on the National Direct Morning Hog Report, up $1.27 with a weighted average of $68.57, ranging from $62.00 to $73.00 on 4,547 head and a five-day rolling average of $67.26. Pork cutouts total 173.62 loads with 148.35 loads of pork cuts and 25.27 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: up $2.93, $92.10.
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