Friday Closing Livestock Market Update - Cattle Hope for Better Week Ahead

GENERAL COMMENTS:

Cattle futures felt plenty of pressure throughout the week and the cash markets did as well as packers keep buying supplies with time and calf buyers are cautious about the current state of the corn market. Meanwhile, the lean hog market continues to soar with tight supplies and stellar demand the driving forces. Hog prices closed higher on the National Direct Afternoon Hog Report, up $1.39 with a weighted average of $112.49 on 4,781 head. July corn is up 25 cents per bushel and July soybean meal is up $3.10. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 185.51 points and NASDAQ is down 119.87 points.

From Friday to Friday, livestock futures scored the following changes:

April live cattle down $1.85, June live cattle up $0.85; May feeder cattle down $4.08, August feeder cattle down $3.15; June lean hogs up $4.00, July lean hogs up $4.72.

LIVE CATTLE:

Live cattle futures held their own Friday and successfully closed fully higher. June live cattle closed $0.52 higher at $116.57, August live cattle closed $1.22 higher at $118.62 and October live cattle closed $1.35 higher at $122.90. This week's slaughter is estimated at 649,000 head, which is disappointing following last week's impressive kill of 665,000 head. With boxed beef prices as high as they are, packers have every incentive to push processing speeds to full bore. Friday's cash cattle trade was mostly uneventful with just a little clean-up action developing in the North for prices steady with the week's trend. Southern live cattle traded for $118 to $119 and Northern cattle traded anywhere from $188 to $195, but mostly at $191 this week. Friday's slaughter is estimated at 115,000 head -- 2,000 head more than a week ago. Saturday's slaughter is projected to be around 57,000 head, which is 17,000 head less than a week ago.

Boxed beef prices averaged significantly higher than last week. Choice cuts averaged the week at $291.79 (up $11.60 from last week) and select cuts averaged $279.14 (up $7.68 from last week) with a total movement of cuts, grinds and trim of 525 loads.

Boxed beef prices closed higher: choice up $2.74 ($296.50) and select up $3.26 ($283.05) with a movement of 78 loads (45.92 loads of choice, 11.35 loads of select, 10.94 loads of trim and 9.40 loads of ground beef).

MONDAY'S CASH CATTLE CALL: Lower. Even though it's sad to say so, with packers having so many cattle contracted for delivery in the upcoming weeks, the likelihood that they'd support the cash cattle market in the meantime is slim.

FEEDER CATTLE:

There are times when the market rallies, there are times when the market falls, and then there are times when the corn market rallies like Muhammad Ali and the feeder cattle contracts constantly fall. With the spot May corn contract closing a stout $0.38 higher at $7.40 (no that's not a typo) you can imagine how the feeder cattle contracts closed -- sharply lower. May feeders closed $2.25 lower at $133.60, August feeders closed $3.12 lower at $146.75 and September feeders closed $2.35 lower at $149.27. With rising input costs from nearly every commodity, drought affecting a large portion of cow-calf producing states, and fat cattle selling for a wimpy $120 -- the feeder cattle clocked out on Friday feeling completely unsupported and quite helpless in the market's current environment. At Napoleon Livestock Auction in Napoleon, North Dakota, compared to last week feeder steers weighing 450 to 500 pounds and steers weighing 800 to 850 pounds both traded $2.00 to $3.00 higher, while steers weighing 750 to 800 pounds sold $2.00 to $5.00 lower. Feeder heifers weighing 400 pounds and higher sold $1.00 to $6.00 lower with instances of $11.00 lower. The CME Feeder Cattle Index 4/29/2021: down $0.94, $134.13.

LEAN HOGS:

I wasn't sure if the lean hog contracts were going to be able to close fully higher, as the market danced awful close to long-term resistance levels. But with a higher closing cash market and stronger pork cutout values, the lean hog party kept on rocking through the day's close. June lean hogs closed $3.00 higher at $109.72, July lean hogs closed $3.00 higher at $109.25 and August lean hogs closed $2.82 higher at $105.50. But with Friday's market close just shy of $110.00 in both the June and July contracts, it wouldn't be surprising to see Monday's market pressured as traders will be looking to see if the fundamental support still encourages higher trade. Pork cutouts total 290.92 loads with 258.82 loads of pork cuts and 32.10 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: up $2.91, $110.46. Friday's slaughter is estimated at 470,000 head -- 4,000 head less than a week ago. Saturday's slaughter is projected to be around 51,000 head which is 12,000 head less than a week ago. The CME Lean Hog Index 4/28/2021: down $0.12, $106.89.

MONDAY'S CASH HOG CALL: Steady. Supplies are tight so it's not crazy to think packers will have to pay somewhat steady prices for hogs.

Friday Midday Livestock Market Summary - Lean Hogs Test Resistance Levels

GENERAL COMMENTS:

Rallying corn prices are once again pushing feeder cattle futures lower, but the live cattle contracts are trying to do their best to hold onto their stronger day. Meanwhile, the lean hog market is having another strong day as the complex pushes up and, in some cases, even past resistance levels as tight supplies continue to drive prices higher while demand is so strong. July corn is up 14 1/2 cents per bushel and July soybean meal is down $2.10. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 205.84 points and NASDAQ is down 53.97 points.

LIVE CATTLE:

Even though feeder cattle futures are growing squeamish over the corn market's modest rally, the live cattle contracts are trying to keep all the gains they've secured despite what corn is doing. June live cattle are up $0.15 at $116.20, August live cattle are up $0.80 at $118.20 and October live cattle are up $1.15 at $122.70. The contracts aren't anywhere near resistance levels and fundamental support continues to stem from excellent consumer demand. As long as traders are willing to see the day out, higher prices may hold through closing. The countryside has been mostly inactive; the majority of the week's business is already done. There's been a handful of cattle trade in Nebraska for $191, which is steady with the week. Some clean-up trade may develop Friday afternoon but it most likely won't be much.

Boxed beef prices are higher: choice up $2.61 ($296.37) and select up $3.88 ($283.67) with a movement of 56 loads (31.03 loads of choice, 7.46 loads of select, 9.78 loads of trim and 7.65 loads of ground beef).

FEEDER CATTLE:

Feeder cattle futures are doing their best to hold the gains they secured early in the day, but with the corn market now seeing upward of $0.13 advancements in the nearby contracts, leeriness is staring to grow amongst traders. May feeders are down $0.45 at $135.40, August feeders are down $0.72 at $149.15 and September feeders are down $0.20 at $151.42. Without the live cattle market to lend much support, the feeder cattle contracts are at the mercy of the pressure -- or lack of pressure -- the corn market puts on their complex until Friday's close.

LEAN HOGS:

Lean hog futures trailed lower throughout Thursday but Friday the contracts have shot back with vengeance. June lean hogs are up $2.82 at $109.55, July lean hogs are up $2.62 at $108.87 and August lean hogs are up $2.07 at $104.75. The contracts are pushing up against, and in some cases even past, resistance levels as fundamentals continue to show immense strength. With cash prices higher again, pork cutouts showing support and the slaughter levels maintaining, the market could easily carry this energy through closing.

The projected CME Lean Hog Index for 4/29/2021 is steady at $106.89, and the actual index for 4/28/2021 is down $0.12 at $106.89. Hog prices are higher on the National Direct Morning Hog Report, up $3.76 with a weighted average of $111.76, ranging from $106.82 to $120.00 on 3,920 head and a five-day rolling average of $109.59. Pork cutouts total 195.58 loads with 176.59 loads of pork cuts and 18.99 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: up $4.10, $111.65.

Friday Morning Livestock Market Update - Futures Expected to Drift

General Comments:

The cattle complex was able to hold well Thursday despite weakness of cash this week. Exports sales were not bad even though they were down 4% from last week. The four-week average was a good bit better, up 22%. Corn prices struggled throughout much of the day with the exception of the front-month May contract. Feedlots might breathe a sigh of relief that grain futures have backed off from the highs earlier in the week, but the crop year is just beginning, and a lot can happen. However, feed prices remain at lofty levels and will cut into profitability. Feedlots may be willing to sell cattle next week similar to this week at steady to lower cash. The April live cattle contract ceases trading Friday moving June to the front-month. June futures are carrying a discount to cash, anticipating further weakness. Futures contracts moved near the lows during the day but were able to bounce back further, indicating a sideways trading range may be developing.

Hogs just could not continue higher Thursday. Traders seemed to be very intent on closing the chart gaps in the June and July contracts. That was accomplished, possibly paving the way for futures to move back up and continue to trend higher. Cash was lower Thursday, but that was understandable due to the large increase earlier in the week. Packers were able to get their hands on sufficient supply to allow the market to drift lower the rest of the week. Export sales were somewhat neutral as pork sales were down from the previous week, but 59% higher than the four-week average. Hog supplies are tightening, which should make futures prices dips buying opportunities. Saturday slaughter is estimated at 51,000 head.

	BULL SIDE		BEAR SIDE
1)	Cattle futures moved near the lows of the price range that has developed over the past week, but support was able to hold.	1)	Cattle futures just cannot generate enough buying interest to turn the trend back up.
2)	Demand remains strong and boxed beef made a nice gain Thursday, indicating consumers still want beef.	2)	Weakening cash is a large hurdle that may not be able to be cleared as long as feed prices remain high. Feedlots will want to move market-ready cattle as quickly as possible.
3)	Hog futures remain above the 20-day moving average despite the decline Thursday, keeping the uptrend intact.	3)	Hog futures may have reached a formidable price ceiling, which may take a monumental effort to break above.
4)	Pork does not grow on trees and tightening supplies will be around for an extended period of time.	4)	Exports may need to increase in order to keep supply from backing up into the domestic market. China has not been purchasing as heavily as they had been.

Thursday Closing Livestock Market Update - Cattle Say So Long to April Contracts

GENERAL COMMENTS:

With April feeder cattle futures set to expire Thursday and the April live cattle contract expiring Friday afternoon, the cattle complex looks ahead to see what's in store. Largely, the cattle contracts are going to be monitoring corn prices until some essence of normalcy is regained. Meanwhile, lean hog futures had an "OK" day as the market was pressured by technical resistance but still managed to hold its own from a fundamental perspective. Hog prices closed lower on the National Direct Afternoon Hog report, down $0.42 with a weighted average of $111.10 on 4,896 head. July corn is up 4 1/4 cents per bushel and July soybean meal is up $1.20. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 239.98 points and NASDAQ is up 31.52 points.

LIVE CATTLE:

Live cattle futures rounded out Thursday trade mostly higher and had successful wins throughout the day with a strong slaughter pace and higher boxed beef prices. But the thorn that just won't leave the market's side is sorry cash cattle prices. June live cattle closed $0.60 higher at $116.05, August live cattle closed $0.92 higher at $117.40 and October live cattle closed $0.50 higher at $121.55. With the April contract set to expire Friday, the market will now be monitoring the June and to some degree August contract for the spot market's pace. There's wasn't much cash trade that developed throughout the countryside, other than just a little bit of clean-up in Iowa, Nebraska and Kansas all for steady money with Wednesday. Thursday's slaughter is estimated at 119,000 head -- 1,000 head more than a week ago.

Beef net sales of 23,600 metric tons (mt) reported for 2021 were down 4% from the previous week, but up 22% from the prior four-week average. The three largest buyers were South Korea (11,700 mt), Japan (4,900 mt) and Mexico (2,000 mt).

Actual slaughter data for the week ended 4/17/2021 showed steer carcass weights decreased slightly but heifer weights jumped. Steers dropped two pounds from the previous week to average 989 pounds, but heifers jumped eight pounds to now average 837 pounds.

Boxed beef prices closed higher: choice up $1.26 ($293.76) and select up $0.79 ($279.79) with a movement of 125 loads (92.81 loads of choice, 12.31 loads of select, 6.88 loads of trim and 13.04 loads of ground beef).

FRIDAY'S CASH CATTLE CALL: Steady. It's looking like the bulk of this week's trade is essentially done and if any more clean-up trade does develop it will be for steady prices.

FEEDER CATTLE:

Feeder cattle futures played a tough defense at the end of the game as the corn market started to reignite its rally in some of the nearby contracts. Seeing that the feeder cattle contracts have absolutely no nearby resistance pressure looming overhead, their modest rally continued even though the corn market started to regain traction. May feeders closed $0.87 higher at $135.85, August feeders closed $0.97 higher at $149.87 and September feeders closed $0.72 higher at $151.62. Corn's rally in recent weeks certainly has depressed cash feeder cattle sales in the countryside, but with a number of different states projected to get moisture in the next ten days and warmer weather, we could see the jump start that the grass needs in order to make good pasture. At Hub City Livestock Auction in Aberdeen, South Dakota, compared to last week, the market's best test on steers was on those weighing 650 to 900 pounds which traded steady with instances of $2.00 higher. Steers weighing 750 to 800 pounds, 850 to 900 pounds and 901 to 950 pounds all sold $3.00 to $5.00 lower. Heifers weighing 600 to 800 pounds all sold $3.00 to $5.00 lower. The CME Feeder Cattle Index for 4/28/2021 was unavailable.

LEAN HOGS:

Lean hog futures couldn't celebrate any wins from a technical aspect as the market was stern about keeping the contracts well below $110. But the fundamental side of the market went unharmed by the technical pressure. Biggest of all, Thursday's slaughter was steady with week-ago levels and pork cutout values were only down slightly. June lean hogs closed $2.40 lower at $106.72, July lean hogs closed $1.70 lower at $106.25 and August lean hogs closed $1.25 lower at $102.67. Pork cutouts totaled 268.00 loads with 230.49 loads of pork cuts and 37.51 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: down $0.66, $107.55. Thursday's slaughter is estimated at 481,000 head -- steady with a week ago. The CME Lean Hog Index for 4/27/2021 was down $0.38, $107.01.

Pork net sales of 35,600 mt reported for 2021 were down noticeably from the previous week, but up 59% from the prior four-week average. The three largest buyers were Mexico (16,700 mt), Japan (6,800 mt) and South Korea (5,000 mt).

Actual slaughter data released Thursday showed both live and dressed hog carcass weights fell lower for the week ended 4/17/2021. Live weights dropped one pound from the previous week to average 291 pounds, and dressed carcasses fell by one pound to average 217 pounds.

FRIDAY'S CASH HOG CALL: Steady to somewhat lower. With a big jump in prices earlier in the week, the market will most likely see steady to somewhat lower trade as packers look to the weekend.

Thursday Midday Livestock Market Summary - Cattle Contracts Catch a Favor From Weaker Corn

GENERAL COMMENTS:

Thursday's break in rallying corn prices has lent a hand to cattle contracts, allowing them to trade modestly higher. Meanwhile, the lean hog market is fighting some technical resistance pressure, but that isn't belittling the market's strong fundamental posturing as cash prices are still strong and slaughter plants are wanting more and more hogs -- but availability is slim. July corn is up 1 1/4 cents per bushel and July soybean meal is up $3.50. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 29.52 points and NASDAQ is down 90.19 points.

LIVE CATTLE:

Live cattle futures are seeing advancements in nearby contracts, but the deferred contracts are still left to trade modestly lower. Even though the live cattle market isn't as directly tied to the corn market as the feeder cattle contracts are, the corn market's behavior still affects the live cattle market's performance. June live cattle are up $0.40 at $115.85, August live cattle are up $0.97 at $117.45 and October live cattle are up $0.67 at $121.72. Seeing a brisk movement of cattle through Wednesday's trade, the market will most likely see prices continue to trade in an-already-established range for the week. There's yet to be any bids renewed and asking prices in the South are posted at $120 while dressed cattle in the North are priced at $192. The market should see some more trade develop before the weekend.

Beef net sales of 23,600 metric tons (mt) reported for 2021 were down 4% from the previous week, but up 22% from the prior four-week average. The three largest buyers were South Korea (11,700 mt), Japan (4,900 mt) and Mexico (2,000 mt).

Boxed beef prices are higher: choice up $0.96 ($293.46) and select up $0.21 ($279.21) with a movement of 69 loads (43.50 loads of choice, 8.16 loads of trim, 6.88 loads of trim and 10.49 loads of ground beef).

FEEDER CATTLE:

As corn futures sink lower, feeder cattle contracts are feeling confident in trading higher but know that in a bat of an eye things could change. May feeders up $0.95 at $135.92, August feeders are up $0.92 at $149.82 and September feeders are up $0.67 at $151.57. With the April contract set to expire at Thursday's close, traders have jumped into the May and August contracts and hope by then the complex will have seen more support from a stronger cash cattle market.

LEAN HOGS:

Technical pressure at $110.00 is keeping lean hog futures lower even though the market is being fueled by continuous fundamental support. June lean hogs are down $2.12 at $107.00, July lean hogs are down $1.57 at $106.37 and August lean hogs are down $1.12 at $102.80. Keeping a close eye on China and their pork purchases, you probably found it odd they weren't one of the most aggressive buyers in last week's export pork sales. But falling fourth in line behind Mexico, Japan and South Korea, China still came to buy some product. Even though the midday cash hog report shared that the top bid sank from $118 posted on Wednesday to $117.50 Thursday, the simple fact that pork prices are this high beams a light on just how few hogs truly are available at this time.

Pork net sales of 35,600 mt reported for 2021 were down noticeably from the previous week, but up 59% from the prior four-week average. The three largest buyers were Mexico (16,700 mt), Japan (6,800 mt) and South Korea (5,000 mt).

The projected two-day CME Lean Hog Index for 4/28/2021 is down $0.12 at $106.89, and the actual index for 4/27/2021 is down $0.38 at $107.01. Hog prices are lower on the National Direct Morning Hog Report, down $1.10 with a weighted average of $108.00, ranging from $106.82 to $117.50 on 2,911 head and a five-day rolling average of $108.66. Pork cutouts total 118.56 loads with 97.38 loads of pork cuts and 21.18 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: up $4.10, $112.31.

Thursday Morning Livestock Market Update - Weekly Export Sales Will Provide Direction

GENERAL COMMENTS:

Cattle futures tried to push higher again Wednesday, but just could not hold even though grain futures fell. There is further disappointment setting up for cash cattle as feedlots are struggling with higher feed prices. Sellers are anxious to move cattle and lower futures have increased the possibility of lower prices in the weeks to come. With more interest in selling cattle, packers are able to procure supply ahead of time without being forced to bid higher. Boxed beef prices were mixed, which did not help matters. It seems like the futures charts indicate a sideways trading pattern developing, which may be around for a little while. Futures are oversold technically, but that may not matter through the rest of the week as cash is likely not going to get any better.

Hogs have been the poster child of the livestock complex as the drop in futures about three weeks ago has been erased with July and later contracts posting new highs. The issue is that the market is becoming choppy, which could indicate it may be running out of steam. However, continued tightening hog supplies could keep more support under the market than what is already anticipated. Futures may be near technical resistance, which may be difficult to breach, but fundamentals will always rule. Weekly export sales will be watched for any weakness in sales. Saturday slaughter is projected at 51,000 head.

	BULL SIDE		BEAR SIDE
1)	Cattle futures seems to be building a level of price support over the past few days possibly limiting further downside. Demand for beef remains strong, which should support boxed beef.	1)	Traders seem to have lost interest in buying this break. Cash cattle do not give the indication of any price rally anytime soon as long as grain prices remain high. Feedlots will want to move cattle.
2)	Futures are oversold and ready for a bounce. A better sales export report could trigger some buying interest.	2)	Packers are able to purchase cattle without difficulty and are purchasing supply in advance. This eliminates the need for them to be aggressive.
3)	July and later lean hog futures made news highs with June almost there. A positive Exports Sales report to push June to regain all of its losses and join the others in the uptrend.	3)	June and July left a gap in the price charts Wednesday, which will need to be filled.
4)	Projected hog slaughter for Saturday shows another reduction, which indicates supplies continue to tighten. Higher feed prices may limit greater pork production in the future, keeping supplies tight.	4)	Weekly export sales will need to be better than last week or traders may sell futures more aggressively pushing prices lower.

Wednesday Closing Livestock Market Update - Cash Cattle Trade Comes With Delayed Delivery

GENERAL COMMENTS:

It was a mixed day for the livestock complex as the cattle contracts endured another day of low blows from the futures market, but the lean hog complex was able to close fully higher. Hog prices closed lower on the National Direct Afternoon Hog Report, down $1.58 with a weighted average of $111.52 on 7,307 head. July corn is down 10 1/2 cents per bushel and July soybean meal is down $5.00. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 164.55 points and NASDAQ is down 39.19 points.

LIVE CATTLE:

Watching Wednesday's market play out for the live cattle and cash cattle markets was extremely disappointing. The futures market closed lower, and cash cattle sold lower (especially in the North) with delivery expected in the 15- to 30-day delivery period. June live cattle closed $0.40 lower at $115.45, August live cattle closed $0.82 lower at $116.47 and October live cattle closed $1.05 lower at $121.05. The problem with cattle selling with time is that it hinders the cash cattle market's ability to rally in the weeks to come. As packers secure their supplies now, they're willingness to support the cash cattle market in the upcoming weeks grows smaller and smaller and prices, more often than not, remain steady, if not fall lower. Cattle sold in the South for $118 to $120 and dressed cattle sold for $190 to $191. Of the cattle that sold in the North, a large percentage of them sold with delivery set for either the week of May 10 or May 17. June live cattle closed $0.40 lower at $115.45, August live cattle closed $0.82 lower at $116.47 and October live cattle closed $1.05 lower at $121.05. Wednesday's slaughter is estimated at 120,000 head, steady with a week ago and incomparable to a year ago.

Boxed beef prices closed mixed: choice up $1.51 ($292.50) and select down $0.53 ($279.00) with a movement of 130 loads (78.46 loads of choice, 25.31 loads of select, 13.07 loads of trim and 13.54 loads of ground beef).

THURSDAY'S CASH CATTLE CALL: Steady. With packers able to buy cattle with time for lower prices, their willingness to bump up prices come Thursday and Friday is slim.

FEEDER CATTLE:

After an exhausting day, the feeder cattle contracts closed lower even though the corn market couldn't keep its rally through closing. The market attempted to trade higher initially when only the May contract was rallying, but when the July and September corn contracts started to pull some support, the feeder cattle market bowed lower and continued to wave its white flag through closing. May feeders closed $0.90 lower at $134.97, August feeders closed $1.17 lower at $148.90 and September feeders closed $1.30 lower at $150.90. At Winter Livestock Auction in Dodge City, Kansas, compared to last week, steer steers weighing 725 pounds to 1,000 pounds sold $1.00 to $3.00 lower. Steers weighing 600 to 725 pounds sold $3.00 to $4.00 higher and there was not an accurate comparison between last week's sale and this week's to measure the steers 400 to 600 pounds, but lower undertones were noted. Feeder heifers weighing 650 to 850 pounds sold steady to $2.00 lower. Heifers weighing 500 to 600 pounds sold $1.00 to $2.00 lower. Slaughter cows sold steady and slaughter bulls sold $6.00 to $7.00 higher. The CME Feeder Cattle Index for April 27: down $0.15, $135.07.

LEAN HOGS:

Understanding that volatile markets create choppy trade is crucial in understanding this week's developments in the lean hog market. Following Tuesday's ginormous cash rally, it's not that surprising to see Wednesday's market close lower, and seeing that packers still bought upward 7,000 head is encouraging as they continue to scout for market ready supplies. June lean hogs closed $2.45 higher at $109.12, July lean hogs closed $2.62 higher at $107.95 and August lean hogs closed $1.85 higher at $103.92. As the lean hog contracts all closed fully higher, Thursday may pressure the contracts to trade lower as the market is flirting with resistance levels again. Pork cutouts totaled 301.39 loads with 249.87 loads of pork cuts and 51.52 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: down $2.47, $108.21. Wednesday's slaughter is estimated at 483,000 head, 2,000 head less than a week ago and incomparable to a year ago. The CME Lean Hog Index for April 26: up $0.22, $107.39.

THURSDAY'S CASH HOG CALL: Steady. With Tuesday's sharp cash advancement bumping the market over $5.00 higher, the next couple of days could be steady to somewhat lower for the cash hog market.

Wednesday Midday Livestock Market Summary - Cattle Market Endures More Blows

GENERAL COMMENTS:

Cattle futures are suffering another grueling day as the contracts endure technical losses and the cash cattle market just can't seem to gain any footing. Meanwhile, lean hog futures are soaking up another day of strong gains as the industry's shortage of market-ready hogs is driving prices higher while consumers are hungry for the meat. July corn is up 14 1/2 cents per bushel and July soybean meal is up $2.20. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 109.87 points and NASDAQ is down 20.80 points.

LIVE CATTLE:

Seeing live cattle futures trade lower is never a positive feeling for cattle enthusiasts but seeing cattle trade for lower money with delivery delayed for three weeks is even more painful. June live cattle are down $0.17 at $115.67, August live cattle are down $0.17 at $117.12 and August live cattle are down $0.20 at $117.10. There's been a moderate movement of cattle following the Fed Cattle Exchange and largely the market has shown prices about $1.00 lower than last week. Live cattle in the Southern Plains have sold for $118 to $119 and dressed cattle in the Northern Plains have sold mostly for $191. Most of the cattle that have sold in Nebraska aren't scheduled for delivery until 5/17/2021.

Boxed beef prices are higher: choice up $1.40 ($292.39) and select up $1.04 ($280.57) with a movement of 79 loads (49.99 loads of choice, 11.08 loads of select, 8.49 loads of trim and 9.53 loads of ground beef).

FEEDER CATTLE:

When the corn market rally was contained to just the May contract, the feeder cattle contracts felt confident enough to move higher. But once the corn rally grew to the July and September contracts, the feeder cattle contracts grew worried and are now trading fully lower into Wednesday afternoon. May feeders are down $1.77 at $134.07, August feeders are down $1.27 at $148.80 and September feeders are down $1.02 at $151.17. Wednesday's pressure didn't seem like it was going to be overbearing when the day initially started, but once cash cattle started selling for lower prices and the corn market kept on scaling higher, the feeder cattle contracts waved their white flag.

LEAN HOGS:

Even though lean hog futures are getting extremely close to testing resistance levels once again, the lean hog market continues to march on seeming to be unpressured at this point as the complex sees steady $1.00 to $2.00 gains. June lean hogs are up $2.05 at $108.72, July lean hogs are up $2.27 at $107.60 and August lean hogs are up $1.87 at $103.97. It's not surprising to see the day's average hog prices slightly lower after Tuesday's stout advancements but looking at the ranges in the cash bids tells a whole new story. The top bid of $118 jumped $1.50 from Tuesday's midday report, which continues to show just how slim supplies of market-ready hogs truly are.

The projected CME Lean Hog Index for 4/27/2021 is down $0.38 at $107.01, and the actual index for 4/26/2021 is up $0.22 at $107.39. Hog prices are lower on the National Direct Morning Hog Report, down $1.85 lower with a weighted average of $109.10, ranging from $105.49 to $118.00 on 4,820 head and a five-day rolling average of $108.15. Pork cutouts total 138.64 loads with 123.83 loads of pork cuts and 14.81 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: down $0.81, $109.87.

Wednesday Morning Livestock Market Update - Higher Livestock Futures Expected

GENERAL COMMENTS:

Cattle futures looked like they were in trouble early Tuesday as grain prices were on the rampage higher. However, grain prices turned tail with most contracts closing lower. This relieved some of the pressure that has been on the market over the past two weeks. Very strong boxed beef prices Tuesday and further losses in grains Wednesday should provide support to futures. Traders will be cautious as the price charts still look ugly, but the bottom line is that demand is strong, and futures really should not have declined as much as they have. The April live cattle contract will close on Friday and is anticipating there will not be a jump in cash this week.

It seemed as if there was spread trading taking place Tuesday with 2021 futures contracts slightly lower and 2022 contracts higher. That seemed a bit backward as tightening supplies will be a greater concern as we move through the year and next year may potentially see an increasing supply. The very strong jump in cash Tuesday should have pulled futures higher, but traders are not yet confident to buy back into the market, looking at high grain prices. However, significantly lower grains overnight may change that attitude. Cutouts gained nicely, adding bullish support for higher prices. Technically, the market is trying to build a base in June and July. December 2021 through July 2022 made new contract highs, keeping the uptrend alive and well.

	BULL SIDE		BEAR SIDE
1)	June live cattle futures are at a discount to cash. Strong demand and higher boxed beef should provide support to regain some of the losses.	1)	Cattle futures could not hold the strength they had at one point Tuesday, falling back into negative territory by the close. This could indicate further weakness.
2)	Weakness of grain prices should allow cattle futures to find some buying interest as fundamentals of the cattle market have not changed very much.	2)	Cash may hold steady at best, but there is a strong possibility for lower prices again this week.
3)	Hog futures held well Tuesday, but strong cash and higher cutouts should bring traders back in to buy the break. There is no opportunity to buy a break in later contracts as they make new highs.	3)	Nearby hog futures may have a difficult time moving back to the highs as cash may begin to settle down as packers hold the line.
4)	Technically, hog futures look bullish and are poised to regain the losses as technical traders step up and buy.	4)	Demand has not backed off yet, but soaring cash may soon reach that level both domestically and internationally.

Tuesday Closing Livestock Market Update - Thank Goodness for Hungry Consumers

GENERAL COMMENTS:

The livestock contracts spend a lot of their time battling both technical and fundamental pressures, but there's one thing that both the hog and cattle contracts can agree upon right now -- they are beyond thankful for the robust consumer demand that the market is thriving upon. Cash hog prices closed sharply higher, up $5.39 with a weighted average of $113.10 on 9,990 head. July corn is down 3 cents per bushel and July soybean meal is down $4.70. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 3.36 points and NASDAQ is down 48.56 points.

LIVE CATTLE:

The live cattle contracts strutted a confident stride around the noon hour, but the complex was unable to keep its rally through the day's close. June live cattle closed $0.42 lower at $115.85, August live cattle closed $0.65 lower at $117.30 and October live cattle closed $0.67 lower at $122.10. With boxed beef prices printing as strong as they are, one would think that the cash cattle market would be able to hold at least steady this week, as feedlots aren't in a desperate need to liquidate and move cattle. Thankfully, the market's strong slaughter pace is going to help keep the market current and high corn prices will incentive feedlots to sell cattle at lower weights. There's yet to be any sizeable cash cattle trade, and it's looking like the week's business will at least wait until after the online auction on Wednesday, if not later. Tuesday's slaughter is estimated at 121,000 head -- steady with a week ago and incomparable to a year ago.

Boxed beef prices closed sharply higher: choice up $5.79 ($290.99) and select up $5.18 ($279.53) with a movement of 105 loads (62.53 loads of choice, 12.60 loads of select, 15.70 loads of trim and 14.07 loads of ground beef).

WEDNESDAY'S CASH CATTLE CALL: Steady. If packers weren't sitting on a plethora of committed cattle, this week's cash cattle market would undoubtedly have no problem rallying higher as boxed beef prices are soaring and slaughter speeds are turned up high. But packers do have a lot of cattle committed for the weeks to come and their desire to give more for cash cattle is minimal.

FEEDER CATTLE:

The feeder cattle contracts attempted to rally higher amid the stout advancements in the spot May corn contract, which closed $0.15 higher at $6.95, but as the day played out, trader's optimism subsided. The back and forth nature of the corn and feeder cattle contracts playing cat and mouse is long from over. The feeder cattle contracts felt confident enough to close partly higher because the May corn contract was the only contract to close higher while the other contract months all closed lower. Still, the utter fear of rising cost of gains is going to limit some buyer's aggression in the feeder cattle market. May feeders closed $1.40 lower at $135.87, August feeders closed $0.22 lower at $150.07 and September feeders closed $0.07 lower at $152.20. At Joplin Regional Stockyards in Carthage, Missouri, compared to last week, feeder steers under 600 pounds sold steady to $3.00 lower, while those steers weighing over 600 pounds traded steady to $3.00 higher. Feeder heifers traded steady to $5.00 lower with the biggest decline seen on heifers that weighted more. The CME Feeder Cattle Index for April 26: down $0.28, $135.22.

LEAN HOGS:

Cash hog prices jumped a whopping $5.39 higher on just shy of 10,000 head, pork cutouts closed higher, and Tuesday's slaughter speeds held well above 480,000 head. Tight supplies and lavish demand are pouring profits towards producers and, as long as demand continues to shine through the market, this choppy sideways trend is expected to last for as long as consumers are willing to keep buying. June lean hogs closed $0.17 lower at $106.67, July lean hogs closed $0.35 lower at $105.32 and August lean hogs closed $0.22 lower at $102.07. Pork cutouts totaled 373.20 loads with 336.42 loads of pork cuts and 36.78 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: up $1.38, $110.68. Tuesday's slaughter is estimated at 486,000 head, 1,000 head more than a week ago and incomparable to a year ago. Monday's hog slaughter was revised to 483,000 head, down 6,000 head from what was originally stated. The CME Lean Hog Index for April 23: up $0.66, $107.17.

WEDNESDAY'S CASH HOG CALL: Steady to somewhat lower. Seeing that Tuesday posted a cash rally over $5.00, it wouldn't be that surprising to see Wednesday's trade be steady to somewhat lower.

Tuesday Midday Livestock Market Summary - Gust of Support Sends Cattle Higher Amid Rally Corn

GENERAL COMMENTS:

The market doesn't like surprises; if higher prices come with the surprises, then at least cattle futures can celebrate in the moment. With corn prices continuing to rally, cattle futures were expected to continue to trade fully lower. But with the volatile nature of high prices comes lofty price swings, which the market is seeing in Tuesday's trade in both the cattle and lean hog contracts. July corn is up 2 cents per bushel and July soybean meal is down $2.10. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 13.12 points and NASDAQ is down 24.30 points.

LIVE CATTLE:

Live cattle futures are catching a new wind of optimism and they're fully enjoying Tuesday's higher trade after last week's sharp decline. The entire live cattle complex is rallying and with midday boxed beef prices more than $4.00 higher for both choice and select cuts, the cash cattle market could grow more confident in at least demanding steady money. June live cattle are up $0.50 at $116.77, August live cattle are up $0.40 at $118.35 and October live cattle are up $0.47 at $123.25. The June live cattle contract seems to want to stay above $116.00 for now and if boxed beef prices can keep shining through and showing stellar demand, traders may feel as if the market's given enough at this point. The cash cattle market is still quiet without any bids or asking prices at this point.

Boxed beef prices are sharply higher: choice up $4.52 ($289.72) and select up $4.81 ($279.16) with a movement of 72 loads (42.58 loads of choice, 7.83 loads of select, 9.47 loads of trim and 11.69 loads of ground beef).

FEEDER CATTLE:

Even though corn futures are still rallying, traders are eyeing cattle futures after their lower trade over the last month and feel as if the market is safe enough to invest in again. At some point, corn's high price point will be its own demise, and with traders feeling more and more comfortable with both the feeder cattle contracts, that demise may be nearing. May feeders are up $0.10 at $137.37, August feeders are up $1.07 at $151.37 and September feeders are up $1.30 at $153.57.

LEAN HOGS:

Lean hog futures rallied full force through Monday's trade, but Tuesday the complex has fought some leeriness in the nearby contracts even though fundamentals are fully supportive of higher trade. June lean hogs are down $0.15 at $106.70, July lean hogs are down $0.25 at $105.42 and August lean hogs are down $0.10 at $102.20. With both pork cutouts higher and the cash market, higher the day simply needs to see this type of energy and optimism carry through the day's end in order to feel comfortable trading higher Wednesday. Monitoring Tuesday's slaughter speeds will again be vital as it could be an indication as to how aggressive packers are going to be in the cash market.

The projected CME Lean Hog Index for 4/26/2021 is up $0.22 at $107.39, and the actual index for 4/23/2021 is up $0.66 at $107.17. Hog prices are sharply higher on the National Direct Morning Hog Report, up $4.06 with a weighted average of $110.95, ranging from $104.50 to $116.50 on 5,090 head and a five-day rolling average of $106.93. Pork cutouts total 241.50 loads with 215.48 loads of pork cuts and 26.02 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: up $2.97, $112.27.

Tuesday Morning Livestock Market Update - Soaring Grain Prices Might Pressure Futures

General Comments:

There was enough support stemming from the Cattle on Feed report in order to interest traders in stepping back into the market on the long side. However, buying interest may be tentative, with traders quick to change their minds at the drop of a hat. Cattle futures have fallen substantially more than cash and boxed beef prices would suggest. Some of the pressure has come from continued escalating grain prices. Higher feed prices may result in cattle moving quickly to the market as feedlots will be anxious to move cattle rather than hold on to them for a bit longer in anticipation of steady-to-higher cash. Now is where the rubber meets the road as pencils are pushed in order to maintain some profit. Packers are looking at futures and the increased willingness to move cattle and are reducing bids in anticipation that cattle will be moved without hesitation. Boxed beef continues to indicate strong demand, but cash looks to be in trouble again this week. The Commitment of Traders report showed funds as net sellers of 15,912 live cattle contracts. This brings their net-longs down to 71,319 contracts.

Hogs made a nice run higher despite corn moving limit-up Monday. Even though cash was a bit lower and cutouts were down, there is strong demand that needs to be filled. Packers continue to move through the countryside in search of hogs in order to keep chain speed high enough to satisfy demand. The concern over future supply and lower inventory being a concern, futures may continue to defy both higher grain prices and lower hog prices in the near term. Futures may be establishing a sideways price range, or it may be ready to trend higher. The Commitment of Traders report showed funds as net sellers of 4,714 futures contracts bringing their net-long positions down to 73,246 contracts.

	BULL SIDE		BEAR SIDE
1)	Traders took the numbers on the Cattle of Feed report as friendly to prices. This provided some interest in buying back into the market.	1)	Cattle futures may be trying to establish a bottom, but the inability to rally further Monday may indicate any price rally might be short-lived.
2)	Boxed beef prices were strong again Monday, indicating continued strong demand. This should provide some support to futures even though cash is lower.	2)	Weaker cash and lower packer bids does not bode well for prices this week. More cattle coming to the market may mean limited upside potential.
3)	Hog futures have made a nice rebound over the past two days. Strength, despite significantly higher grain prices, is a testament to the resiliency of the market and should keep futures no worse than sideways.	3)	Hog futures indicate the recent highs of the market were a bit overdone. Prices are now trying to find a level at which buyers and sellers will be content doing business.
4)	Futures are attempting to regain the losses in nearby months while December and later contracts made new highs Monday.	4)	Weekly export sales continued to be of concern. If China's demand is faltering due to greater internal supplies, supply could back up into the U.S over time.

Monday Closing Livestock Market Update - Feeder Cattle and Corn Play Cat and Mouse

GENERAL COMMENTS:

Both the live cattle and lean hog contracts closed the day mostly higher, but the feeder cattle complex couldn't stomach another day of higher corn prices. With both the May and June corn contracts closing limit higher, calf buyers have to look at their cost of gains and really analyze their breakeven point. Hog prices closed lower on the National Direct Afternoon Hog Report, down $0.48 with a weighted average of $107.71 on 4,332 head. July corn is up 25 cents per bushel and July soybean meal is up $5.70. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 61.92 points and NASDAQ is up 121.97 points.

LIVE CATTLE:

Given the dynamic nature of the cattle market with aggressive slaughter speeds and higher boxed beef prices but lower cash cattle trade, the futures market attitude weighs heavily on the complex. It was surprising to see the futures market higher throughout Monday's trade, but some of the market's optimism could be that traders found Friday's COF report to be bullish. June live cattle closed $0.55 higher at $116.27, August live cattle closed $1.10 higher at $117.95 and October live cattle closed $0.72 higher at $122.77. Monday's slaughter is estimated at 117,000 head, 2,000 head less than a week ago and incomparable to year ago levels. New showlists appear to be mixed, higher in Kansas, Nebraska/Colorado, but lower in Texas.

Last week's negotiated cash cattle trade totaled only 67,738 head. Of that 52% (35,291 head) are committed for delivery in the next two upcoming weeks, while the remaining 48% (32,447 head) are scheduled for delivery in the following 15 to 30 days.

Boxed beef prices closed higher: choice up $1.43 ($285.20) and select up $2.22 ($274.35) with a movement of 87 loads (56.76 loads of choice, 12.50 loads of select, 9.34 loads of trim and 8.06 loads of ground beef).

TUESDAY'S CASH CATTLE CALL: Steady to somewhat lower. Although it shouldn't be so, this week's cash cattle market is going to have a road ahead of it as packers have ample supplies of cattle already committed for this time.

FEEDER CATTLE:

The corn market jumped back and forth but as the afternoon traded on, the market only grew stronger and both the May and July corn contracts closed limit higher. Amid sharply higher corn prices and a lack of support from the cash cattle market, the feeder cattle contracts felt pressured to close lower once again. Both the August and September feeder cattle contracts closed higher but with the April contract set to expire later this week, traders are simply moving their positions around. May feeders closed $0.40 lower at $137.27, August feeders closed $0.40 higher at $150.30 and September feeders closed $0.22 higher at $152.27. At Oklahoma National Stockyards in Oklahoma City, Oklahoma, compared to last week at midsession, feeder steers were selling $3.00 lower, feeder heifers were selling $4.00 to $6.00 lower and steer and heifer calves were selling $6.00 to $9.00 lower. The CME Feeder Cattle Index for April 23: not available at this time.

LEAN HOGS:

The lean hog contracts fought some hesitation from the market's fundamentals as cash prices closed lower and pork cutout values dipped lower as well, but the futures market continued to support the complex through the day's close. June lean hogs closed $1.12 higher at $106.85, July lean hogs closed $1.15 higher at $105.67 and August lean hogs closed $1.15 higher at $102.30. It's encouraging to see the week's slaughter diving into the new week with an aggressive pace of 489,000 head. Amid a weaker cutout value and lower cash market, the more rigorous slaughter pace is a positive fundamental component that the market desperately needs in order to keep supplying consumers with the product they yearn for. Pork cutouts totaled 280.07 loads with 256.17 loads of pork cuts and 23.90 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: down $2.64, $109.30. Monday's slaughter is estimated at 489,000 head, 4,000 head more than a week ago and incomparable to year ago levels. The CME Lean Hog Index for April 22: up $0.52, $106.51.

TUESDAY'S CASH HOG CALL: Higher. If the market is going to try to run as close to 490,000 head as possible, packers will most likely need to scout the countryside again for cash hogs in order to fill capacity, as supplies are incredibly thin.

Monday Midday Livestock Market Summary - Futures Trade Mixed

GENERAL COMMENTS:

Breaking into Monday trade, livestock futures are going to have to work for their positions this week as the market has already clearly indicated that pressure looms -- especially in the cattle sector. With corn rallying a stout $0.25 in the May and July contracts and packers continuing to buy nearly 50% of their cash cattle purchases with delayed delivery, this week will face some stark challenges. July corn is up 25 cents per bushel and July soybean meal is up $7.50. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 19.51 points and NASDAQ is up 80.19 points.

LIVE CATTLE:

Live cattle futures are higher, but the day's strength comes with plenty of red flags attached. Looking at last week's negotiated cash cattle trade (see below) this week's cash cattle market could be challenged again by the sheer number of cattle packers have committed for delayed delivery. Packers, as well as the rest of us, throughout understood that seasonal supplies were going to begin to run thin, which would drive cash cattle prices higher amid exceptional consumer demand. To combat losing some of their profit margin, packers have steadily been buying more and more cattle to fit in the 15- to 30-day delivery timeframe to ease their reliance on the cash cattle market. Slaughter may be running at an aggressive pace and boxed beef prices may still be trending higher, but that doesn't mean packers are going to pay more for cattle. June live cattle are up $0.62 at $116.32, August live cattle are up $1.00 at $117.85 and October live cattle are up $0.77 at $122.82. New showlists appear to be mixed -- higher in Kansas, Nebraska/Colorado; lower in Texas.

Last week's negotiated cash cattle trade totaled only 67,738 head. Of that 52% (35,291 head) are committed for delivery in the next two weeks, while the remaining 48% (32,447 head) are scheduled for delivery in the following days.

Boxed beef prices are mixed: choice down $0.77 ($283.00) and select up $1.82 ($273.95) with a movement of 42 loads (24.61 loads of choice, 5.07 loads of select, 6.88 loads of trim and 5.53 loads of ground beef).

FEEDER CATTLE:

Welcome to another Monday where not much is new with nearby corn prices being limit high (May and July contracts). Consequently, feeder cattle futures are crashing lower. April feeders are down $0.87 at $132.97, May feeders are down $0.47 at $137.20 and August feeders are up $0.20 at $150.10. As the feeder cattle contracts absorb the week's sharply higher gains in the corn market, feeders are hopeful the corn market's high is found sooner rather than later as cost of gains are becoming outlandish. Receipts are expected to be light this week throughout sale barns as cattlemen look at the board and its steady decline and want to market their cattle at a more opportune time.

LEAN HOGS:

Lean hog futures are once again soaking up a fruitful Monday as the market supports higher trade. There was some concern that, with Friday's weaker pork cutout and the lack of participation in Friday's cash hog market, this week could be slightly lower. But with packers unable to run double shifts on Saturday, their need to dive wildly into the market is minimal. Monday's technical support and thriving fundamental demand is shining through the market again and advocating for steady to higher prices. June lean hogs are up $0.60 at $106.32, July lean hogs are up $0.95 at $105.47 and August lean hogs are $1.15 at $102.30.

The projected CME Lean Hog Index for 4/23/2021 is up $0.66 at $107.17, and the actual index for 4/22/2021 is up $0.52 at $106.51. Hog prices are higher on the National Direct Morning Hog Report, up $1.14 with a weighted average of $106.66, ranging from $104.00 to $115.00 on 3,692 head and a five-day rolling average of $105.35. Pork cutouts total 133.46 loads with 118.20 loads of pork cuts and 15.26 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: down $0.84, $111.10.

Monday Morning Livestock Market Update - Higher Futures Anticipated

GENERAL COMMENTS:

Last week was brutal for both cash cattle and futures. There is no doubt cattle futures are substantially oversold, but in this market environment, that does not hold much influence. Lower cash certainly was not totally unexpected, but the magnitude of the decline was unexpected. However, considering the bearish influence of higher grain prices, there was nowhere else for cash to go. The Cattle on Feed report is now a factor that has been digested over the weekend and will be seen in trade on Monday. There has been a lot of comparing and assessing going on since the report. One idea is that it really is difficult to make a proper comparison to last year due to COVID-19. While that is a viable assessment, farms and feedlots did not shut down later in March 2020 as many other businesses did. Most of the cattle that were there earlier in March 2020, were still there at the end of the month. On the other hand, making a comparison back to 2019 might be a more accurate way to determine where cattle numbers are in relation to current demand. The general consensus is that the report was neutral to friendly. The actual numbers were slightly below the average trade estimates. Those estimates and released numbers are generally what influences the trade. Thus, futures will likely trade higher Monday.

Hog futures have been moving opposite cattle. Packers have been more aggressive as supplies are slowly tightening. Demand is very strong and needs to be met or lose market share. This keeps packers scouring the countryside in search of supply with the directive of purchasing hogs no matter the price. Even though futures put in another banner day on Friday and cash was higher, cutouts fell. Futures seem to be building a potential sideways trading range as the market balances supply with demand. The ability of futures to close higher last week in the face of strong grain prices bodes well for continued support.

	BULL SIDE		BEAR SIDE
1)	Cattle on feed and placements were lower than trade expectations, which should support futures as they have more than compensated for the report last week.	1)	Traders may have a difficult time determining how to accurately assess the Cattle on Feed report. This could leave the market drifting lower.
2)	Futures are oversold and now that the Cattle on Feed report is history, traders may buy back into the market.	2)	Futures still have not given any indication of a bottom.
3)	The impressive gains of hog futures Friday should carry over Monday as fundamentals remain bullish.	3)	Lower cutouts on Friday might mean prices are reaching a threshold that will begin to slow demand.
4)	Cash continues to improve as packers remain aggressive. Tightening supply will continue to support.	4)	Hog futures might move sideways at best as current supply and demand might be balanced for the time being.

Friday Closing Livestock Market Update - High Corn and Depressed Cattle Summarize the Week

GENERAL COMMENTS:

To say that this past week was anything less than exhausting and painfully brutal for the cattle contracts would simply be untrue. The sharp spike in corn prices sent the feeder cattle complex crashing lower, and the live cattle market ended up absorbing the market's negative morale as well. Meanwhile, the lean hog contracts continued to rally most of the week as demand continues to support prices. Hog prices closed higher on the National Direct Afternoon Hog Report, up $0.89 with a weighted average of $108.19 on 3,120 head. May corn is up 5 cents per bushel and July soybean meal is up $0.50. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 227.59 points and NASDAQ is up 198.40 points.

From Friday to Friday, livestock futures scored the following changes: April live cattle down $3.00, June live cattle down $3.45; April feeder cattle down $5.78, May feeder cattle down $6.05; June lean hogs up $4.03, July lean hogs up $4.83.

LIVE CATTLE:

Friday's live cattle contracts may have been able to close mostly higher, but it's hard to get overly excited about Friday's higher close when the week was sold out by nearly every sector -- traders left the market to drift lower right alongside the cash cattle market even though boxed beef prices are higher and slaughter speeds ran vigorously. April live cattle closed $0.47 lower at $117.85, June live cattle closed $0.12 lower at $115.72 and August live cattle closed $0.12 higher at $116.85.

This past week's sorry cash cattle trade comes as a raw thorn pushed into feedlots' sides. Beef demand is exceptional, and historically the market would be looking to make a spring-time high, but yet cash cattle prices are trailing lower. This week's lower cash cattle trade boils down to the fact that feedlots hold insufficient leverage in the market to demand the prices they need. And with corn prices rallying, feedlots continue to see profitability sucked out of their bottom line nearly as quick as this week's corn market shot higher. This week, Northern dressed cattle sold for $190 to $195, which is $4.00 less than a week ago. Southern live cattle sold for $118 to $120, mostly at $119 to $120, which is roughly steady to $1.50 lower than last week's average. Friday's slaughter is estimated at 113,000 head, steady with a week ago and incomparable to 2020 with COVID-19 difficulties. Saturday's slaughter is projected to be around 74,000 head, 4,000 head more than a week ago.

Boxed beef prices continued to track higher throughout the week despite the hurdles that the cattle market had to absorb. Choice cuts averaged $280.19 (up $6.77 from last week) and select cuts averaged $271.46 (up $3.95 from last week) and the week's movement of cuts, grinds and trim totaled 513 loads.

Friday's Cattle on Feed report was expected to be a wildcard for the market, as when compared to 2020 data the 2021 estimates were alarmingly higher. But comparing 2021 data to that of 2020 isn't sensible as 2020 was land-blasted from the onset of COVID-19. 

Boxed beef prices closed mixed: choice up $1.46 ($283.77) and select down $1.56 ($272.13) with a movement of 124 loads (79.42 loads of choice, 10.95 loads of select, 14.25 loads of trim and 19.65 loads of ground beef).

MONDAY'S CASH CATTLE CALL: Lower. As much as I'd like to say it wasn't so, next week's cash cattle trade is likely to be lower as packers sit on ample supplies of cattle that they've procured for the weeks ahead.

FEEDER CATTLE:

The feeder cattle contracts may have closed fully higher Friday afternoon, but the week was far from perfect. With corn prices skyrocketing and cost of gains becoming outlandish, cattle buyers had to step gingerly into sales this week and monitor their expenses meticulously. The feeder cattle contracts were able to close higher Friday afternoon as the corn market closed mostly lower, but it remains a force to be reckoned with. April feeders closed $1.60 lower at $133.85, May feeders closed $0.65 lower at $137.67 and August feeders closed $1.52 lower at $149.90.

Oklahoma's Weekly Cattle Auction Summary shared that, compared to last week, the state sold feeder steers and heifers mostly $2.00 to $6.00 lower, and there were some instances of even $8.00 lower. Steer and heifer calves traded $3.00 to $6.00 lower. Demand was only moderate compared to the weeks past as cost of gains are a limiting factor to buyer's aggression in the market. The CME Feeder Cattle Index for April 22: down $1.17, $136.36.

LEAN HOGS:

The lean hog market had some pressure to fight this week, but thankfully tight supplies and exceptional demand is a tough market to push against. June lean hogs closed $2.17 higher at $105.72, July lean hogs closed $2.27 higher at $104.52 and August lean hogs closed $2.22 higher at $101.15. You'll notice that Saturday's kill is projected to be smaller than last weeks and that simply comes down to the fact that supplies are incredibly thin right now for market-ready hogs. Pork cutouts totaled 222.28 loads with 197.81 loads of pork cuts and 24.47 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: down $2.76, $111.94. Friday's slaughter is estimated at 474,000 head, 6,000 head more than a week ago and incomparable to 2020 with COVID-19 difficulties. Saturday's slaughter is projected to be around 63,000 head, 12,000 head less than a week ago. The CME Lean Hog Index for April 21: up $0.87, $105.99.

MONDAY'S CASH HOG CALL: Steady to somewhat higher. With supplies being as tight as they are, packers are going to have to continue to scout the cash market in order to successfully fill all their needs.

Friday Midday Livestock Market Summary - Traders Gingerly Step Back Into Market

GENERAL COMMENTS:

The regression in the corn market's rally gave traders enough confidence to step back into the livestock contracts and modestly support the markets heading into the final trading day of the week. It's looking like the bulk of this week's cash cattle trade is done as bids have yet to be renewed. May corn is up 1 3/4 cents per bushel and July soybean meal is up $2.00. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 192.45 points and NASDAQ is up 180.13 points.

LIVE CATTLE:

Live cattle futures have been mostly higher through early Friday trade, but as the noon hour gets closer and closer there is resistance building in the nearby contracts. April live cattle are down $0.90 at $117.42, June live cattle are down $0.37 at $115.45 and August live cattle are down $0.12 at $116.60. This past week has been incredibly frustrating for cattlemen and feedlot managers alike as they've tried and tried to market their cattle, but when the board lacks any positive movement and the corn market jumps limit higher, it's hard not to sell cattle (even at lower prices). The concerning aspect about the market moving forward is that a plethora of cattle have been sold with delayed delivery, which will undermine the cash cattle market in the weeks to come regardless of what boxed beef prices do or how strong slaughter speeds are. Friday's cash cattle market is as quiet a church mouse without any bids having been renewed at this point in the day. Before heading out for the weekend make sure to look for DTN's updates on the latest Cattle on Feed Report.

Boxed beef prices are mixed: choice up $1.01 ($283.32) and select down $1.28 ($272.41) with a movement of 92 loads (62.03 loads of choice, 8.50 loads of select, 7.18 loads of trim and 13.84 loads of ground beef).

FEEDER CATTLE:

The break in the corn rally has given the feeder cattle complex some relief as cattle buyers worked and re-worked their cost of gains this past week to adjust for the higher corn prices. April feeder cattle are up $1.80 at $134.00, May feeders are up $0.10 at $137.12 and August feeders are up $0.77 at $149.15. The cattle market has had a gruesome week, taking blows not only from higher corn prices but also from the regression in the cash cattle market.

LEAN HOGS:

Lean hog futures are back to rallying modestly as traders are less opposed to investing in the markets Friday as they were Wednesday and Thursday amid the corn market's surge. June lean hogs are up $1.87 at $105.47, July lean hogs are up $2.00 at $104.25 and August lean hogs are up $1.95 at $100.87. Packers aren't showing much aggression in the morning's cash market but the day's not over and there's still plenty of time for more hogs to be bought. That being said, however, it wouldn't be surprising if Friday's cash market volume was slim as packers are no longer running vigorous Saturday kills with supplies as slim as they are.

The projected CME Lean Hog Index for 4/22/2021 is up $0.52 at $106.52, and the actual index for 4/21/2021 is up $0.87 at $105.99. Hog prices are lower on the National Direct Morning Hog Report, down $0.20 with a weighted average of $105.52, ranging from $102.00 to $113.00 on 2,025 head and a five-day rolling average of $104.70. Pork cutouts total 207.51 loads with 180.86 loads of pork cuts and 26.65 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: up $0.56, $114.20.

Friday Morning Livestock Market Update - Rebound of Futures Likely

GENERAL COMMENTS:

Feedlots were looking at the market Thursday with only one eye open, and they were squinting with the open eye as well. It was painful to watch as cattle futures posted triple-digit losses in numerous contracts while corn prices rocketed higher. Cash traded lower and packers were able to extend their purchases further into the future. This does not bode well for the near term. Boxed beef closed nicely higher Thursday, but although friendly, the focus was on grain prices. The weekly Export Sales report was not even enough to stem the swelling tide of weakness even though sales were 57% higher than last week and 38% higher than the previous week. Cash trading is mostly done for the week, setting a bearish tone for next week. There may be bright spot Friday. Some short-covering may take place and overnight corn futures are nearly eliminating half of Thursday's limit gains.

Hogs suffered losses Thursday, but not quite to the extent of cattle. However, it solidifies the idea that the top is in. Now that does not mean that futures will continue to weaken, but that futures will not return to new highs anytime soon. It seems like the order of business technically will be to close the price gap in the May contract at $105.95. Export sales were not good again even with the adjustment that was made due to an error in reporting last year. China did show up as the top buyer, but at a low amount. Higher cash Thursday, along with higher cutouts and reduced cold storage levels compared to a year ago should provide some support. Estimated hog slaughter for Saturday is 63,000 head.

	BULL SIDE		BEAR SIDE
1)	Grain prices may be lower Friday, which would relieve some selling pressure on futures.	1)	Cattle are under pressure from numerous angles overriding the elements that are friendly. This will be difficult to turn.
2)	Cattle future are deeply oversold, possibly triggering some short-covering into the weekend.	2)	Substantially lower cash this week sets the stage for packers to bid lower next. They will now play the waiting game.
3)	Continued higher cash and higher cutouts should provide support even though grain prices are increasing.	3)	The top is in and futures may trade sideways for a bit as traders assess supply and demand.
4)	China was the top buyer on the weekly Export Sales report again. They will continue to need pork and are willing to pay up for it.	4)	Export sales showed another rather dismal number. This needs to pick up or cash may falter.

Thursday Closing Livestock Market Update - Runaway Corn Prices Don't Mix Well With Cattle Contracts

GENERAL COMMENTS:

The corn market's rally came at a rather large expense to the cattle contracts, and the market's lower morale even soaked into the lean hog contracts before closing. Hog prices closed higher on the National Direct Afternoon Hog Report, up $0.42 with a weighted average of $107.30 on 6,010 head. May corn is up 25 cents per bushel and July soybean meal is up $9.20. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 321.41 points and NASDAQ is down 131.81 points.

LIVE CATTLE:

As if the runaway-train type of corn prices weren't bad enough for the cattle market's morale, feedlots now have to also deal with the long-lasting affects of cattle sold with time as there were some pens sold Thursday afternoon for delivery the week of May 10 -- three weeks away. I'd love to say that high corn prices mean high cattle prices, but in 2021 that just isn't the reality of the marketplace. Packers have worked this market from every angle and, as supplies of market-ready cattle become thinner and thinner moving forward, they have prepared themselves for a time like this and are buying cattle with time to avoid paying higher prices later down the road. There was a light trade of cattle that developed in the North for $192, which is $4.00 lower than last week's business and where most of the delayed delivery for May 10 was done. Some cattle sold in Colorado for $121, which is $1.50 lower than last week's average. Bids of $118 are still being offered in Kansas but the Southern Plain feedlots were mostly quiet throughout the day with just a few cattle trading at $118 to $119. April live cattle closed $1.45 lower at $118.32, June live cattle closed $1.40 lower at $115.85 and August live cattle closed $1.25 lower at $116.72. Thursday's slaughter is estimated at 118,000 head, 4,000 head more than a week ago and 36,000 head more than a year ago (year-ago numbers were greatly affected by COVID-19).

Thursday's actual slaughter data shared that, for the week ending April 10, steer carcass weights jumped 6 pounds to average 900 pounds, and heifer carcass weights averaged 829 pounds, down 3 pounds from the previous report.

Thursday's Cold Storage Report shared that total red meat supplies in freezers were down 6% from the previous month and down 17% from last year. Total pounds of beef in freezers were down 6% from last month and down 4% from last year.

Boxed beef prices closed higher: choice up $1.85 ($282.31) and select up $1.81 ($273.69) with a movement of 93 loads (54.03 loads of choice, 18.97 loads of select, 6.25 loads of trim and 13.40 loads of ground beef).

FRIDAY'S CASH CATTLE CALL: Steady to somewhat lower. Even though the week's slaughter pace is encouraging, and boxed beef prices are stronger, the trends of the cash cattle market are lower this week and enough cattle have sold to where packers know they can demand these lower prices.

FEEDER CATTLE:

Wrapping up Thursday's gruesome trade, the feeder cattle contracts did only what they could amid a $0.25 rally in the nearby corn contracts, and amid a cash cattle market that's sinking quicker than quicksand -- they closed sharply lower. At some point, one would think that high prices have got to cure high prices in the corn market, but the damage done between then and now is costly to livestock producers. May feeders closed $2.57 lower at $137.02, August feeders closed $3.55 lower at $148.37 and September feeders closed $3.52 lower at $150.40. At Mitchell Livestock Auction in Mitchell, South Dakota, compared to last week, feeder steers weighing 800 to 850 pounds sold $7.00 lower, steers weighing 900 to 950 pounds sold steady, and steers weighing 1,000 to 1,150 pounds sold $3.00 to $7.00 lower. Feeder heifers weighing 750 to 800 pounds sold $9.00 lower and heifers weighing 800 to 1,000 pounds sold $4.00 to $6.00 lower. The CME Feeder Cattle Index for April 21: down $0.80, $137.53.

LEAN HOGS:

Even though the futures market absorbed the day's technical pressures, the market's fundamentals are still incredibly strong. Pork cutouts closed higher, and the cash market even closed higher. After trading higher both Monday and Tuesday, the contracts rebound from last week's hard sell out to now be at levels where resistance pressure is limiting the futures market again. Even though the day closed lower in the nearby contracts, the fact remains that demand is exceptional, and supplies are thin -- extremely thin. June lean hogs closed $0.97 lower at $103.55, July lean hogs closed $0.75 lower at $102.25 and August lean hogs closed $0.40 lower at $98.92. ­­­­­Pork cutouts total 346.68 loads with 306.32 loads of pork cuts and 40.37 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: up $1.06, 114.70. Thursday's slaughter is estimated at 481,000 head, 7,000 head more than a week ago and 119,000 head more than a year ago (year-ago numbers were greatly affected by COVID-19). The CME Lean Hog Index for April 20: up $0.70, $105.12.

Thursday's actual slaughter data shared that for the week ending April 10, pork live and dressed weights were higher for hogs. Live carcass weights averaged 292 pounds (up 2 pounds from the previous report) and dressed carcass weights averaged 218 pounds (up 1 pound).

Thursday's Cold Storage Report shared that frozen pork supplies were down 7% from last month and down 27% from last year and stocks of pork bellies were down 6% from last month and down 55% from last year.

FRIDAY'S CASH HOG CALL: Steady. Even though packers have shown that they are going to work the cash cattle market vigorously as supplies are extremely hard to come by and demand is strong, packers may be a little less aggressive heading into the weekend.

Thursday Midday Livestock Market Update - High Corn Sends Cattle Screaming Lower

GENERAL COMMENTS:

Thanks to the rally in the corn market, cattle futures have nose-dived lower and are only feeling the pressure build as time goes on. Meanwhile, lean hog futures are trying to keep their upward rally, though there is some pressure building in the nearby contracts. May corn is up 25 cents per bushel and July soybean meal is up $9.80. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 51.74 points and NASDAQ is up 30.78 points.

LIVE CATTLE:

It's been a rough day for cattle futures and even though the live cattle market isn't seeing sharp losses like the feeder cattle contracts, their inability to rally a higher cash cattle market is equally as painful. April live cattle are down $1.45 at $118.32, June live cattle are down $1.00 at $116.30 and August live cattle are down $1.02 at $116.92. Even though this week's slaughter is running aggressively and most likely going to be around 650,000 to 660,000 head and boxed beef prices are higher than a year ago -- feedlots don't hold enough leverage in the current market to move the cash cattle market higher regardless of what the fundamentals are. Light trade has developed in the North at $192, which is $4.00 lower than a week ago and bids of $118 have surfaced in Kansas. Asking prices are around $121 to $122 in the South and $196 plus in the North.

Beef net sales of 24,600 metric tons (mt) reported for 2021 were up 57% from the previous week and 38% from the prior 4-week average. The three largest buyers were South Korea (7,800 mt), Japan (6,200 mt) and China (3,100 mt).

Boxed beef prices are higher: choice up $0.93 ($281.39) and select up $2.91 ($274.79) with a movement of 63 loads (33.94 loads of choice, 14.65 loads of select, 5.21 loads of trim and 9.04 loads of ground beef).

FEEDER CATTLE:

Pain, sheer pain is what the feeder cattle complex is experiencing as May corn rallies 25 cents to $6.50 per bushel and July corn rallies the same amount to $6.31. With corn prices making hellacious jumps day in and day out, the feeder cattle contracts have been trading lower; but Thursday trade is sending the contracts sharply lower. May feeders are down $3.80 at $135.80, August feeders are down $4.22 at $147.70 and September feeders are down $3.87 at $150.07. Until the corn market stabilizes or begins to fall lower, the feeder cattle contracts don't have much ground to stand on as the live cattle complex isn't having luck at rallying cash cattle prices.

LEAN HOGS:

As the noon hour approaches, the lean hog contracts are seeing a little more resistance building in their nearby contracts while the deferred contracts still rally modestly. June lean hogs are down $0.12 at $104.57, July lean hogs are up $0.37 at $103.37 and August lean hogs are up $0.60 at $99.92. Initially looking at the weekly export report, a marketing year low wasn't all that surprising as we expected exports to be lower amid such high pork prices. But seeing China back to buy again and seeing the data correction note that there was some data not properly reported in 2020, the report hasn't bearishly undermined the market and strong fundamental undertones still remain.

Pork net sales reductions of 22,100 mt reported for 2021 -- a marketing year low -- were down noticeably from both the previous week and prior 4-week average. The three largest buyers were China (13,100 mt), Japan (2,700 mt) and South Korea (1,500 mt). Data correction note, "Due to an error in exporter(s) reporting, exports of 54,476 mt of pork were not reported properly in marketing year 2020. To correct marketing year 2021 figures a cancelation of 54,476 mt has been reported this week to remove the portion that should have been reported in 2020."

The projected CME Lean Hog Index for 4/21/2021 is up $0.87 at $105.99 and the actual index for 4/20/2021 is up $0.70 at $105.12. Hog prices are higher on the National Direct Morning Hog Report, up $0.75 with a weighted average of $105.72 ranging from $104.00 to $113.00 on 3,987 head and a five-day rolling average of $104.39. Pork cutouts total 207.51 loads with 180.86 loads of pork cuts and 26.65 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: up $0.56, $114.20.