GENERAL COMMENTS:
Cattle and lean hog futures are trading on two totally different spectrums as the cattle contracts bear lower without any trader interest whatsoever, and hogs see gains of $2.00 to $3.00. Heading into the later part of the day, keeping an eye on slaughter speeds for both markets will be important and it could show signs of packer aggression in the days to come. May corn is up 5 1/2 cents per bushel and July soybean meal is up $5.10. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 165.09 points and NASDAQ is down 172.24 points.
LIVE CATTLE:
Live cattle futures aren't overly amused with Monday's arrival and are neglecting to rally any trader support. April live cattle are down $0.60 at $120.25, June live cattle are down $0.42 at $118.75 and August live cattle are down $0.50 at $118.65. Last week's cash cattle trade was bothersome in the number of cattle that are committed for the extended delivery. With supplies of market-ready cattle manageable, it's hard to stand much of a chance at trading higher when packers have a considerable percentage of their cattle already committed. Heading into this week's trade, feedlots will swing at higher prices but packers are going to want the market to trade steady at best. New showlists appear to be higher in Texas, Nebraska and Colorado, but somewhat lower in Kansas.
Last week's negotiated cash cattle trade totaled 88,624 head. Of that 55% (48,568 head) are committed for delivery in the next two weeks while the remaining 45% (40,056 head) are committed for delivery in the following 15 to 30 days.
Boxed beef prices are mixed: choice down $0.23 ($275.82) and select down $1.58 ($270.68) with a movement of 52 loads (20.85 loads of choice, 7.67 loads of select, 5.70 loads of trim and 17.90 loads of ground beef).
FEEDER CATTLE:
Feeder cattle futures are not amused by the corn market's modest rally. April feeders are down $1.67 at $137.95, May feeders are down $1.25 at $142.27 and August feeders are down $1.97 and $152.57. The sheer pressure looming over the feeder cattle complex is immense as feedlots have to manage rising cost of gains and stomach fat cattle selling around $120 live. The feeder cattle market desperately needs to see the corn market stabilize and needs to see fat cattle prices strengthen to take some of the burden of higher input costs out of the equation.
LEAN HOGS:
Lean hog contracts rounded out last week on a tougher note, even though packers fully supported Friday's market heading into the weekend. There was some worry that with a disrupted kill schedule last week hog supplies may back up. But with supplies as thin as they are right now packers still had to jump into the market aggressively to secure supplies necessary Friday afternoon. Jumping into Monday's trade, the board is completely supportive of higher trade but it's too early to really get a good feel about how packers are going to approach the week. June lean hogs are up $3.25 at $104.95, July lean hogs are up $2.77 at $102.47 and August lean hogs are up $2.55 at $98.70.
The projected CME Lean Hog Index for 4/16/2021 is up $0.51 at $103.75, and the actual index for 4/15/2021 is up $0.21 at $103.24. Hog prices are lower on the National Direct Morning Hog Report, down $0.96 with a weighted average of $103.00, ranging from $102.15 to $108.00 on 3,028 head a five-day rolling average of $101.75. Pork cutouts total 162.81 loads with 146.27 loads of pork cuts and 16.54 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: up $2.61, $114.70.
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