GENERAL COMMENTS:
The livestock complex needs direction before it will dive wildly into anything. With prices at lofty levels for both pork and beef cuts, the market wants to see follow-through consumer support before any technical advancements are made. July corn is down 4 1/4 cents per bushel and July soybean meal is down $1.20. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 163.63 points and NASDAQ is up 184.47 points.
LIVE CATTLE:
Boxed beef prices are still floating above $3.00 per pound in both choice and select cuts, but live cattle futures are cautious about trade early this week. June live cattle are down $1.05 at $116.62, August live cattle are down $1.05 at $119.87 and October live cattle are down $0.75 at $124.30. This year is still operating far differently than most years, so watching the boxed beef market is inherently important as it may shine light on any changes that are to come with slaughter speed and cash cattle prices. Thankfully beef demand continues to be phenomenal. But in years past, the market would be looking to make a seasonal top at any time now. The 2021 market may choose to do the same; but, then again, it could surprise us and continue to rally for a couple of weeks. Showlists this week are larger in Texas, somewhat smaller in Kansas and evidently smaller in Nebraska and Colorado.
Last week's negotiated cash cattle traded totaled 82,209 head. Of that 71% (58,166 head) are committed for delivery in the next two upcoming weeks while the remaining 29% ($24,043 head) are schedule for delivery in the following 15 to 30 days.
Boxed beef prices are mixed: choice up $1.53 ($326.70) and select down $0.71 ($301.60) with a movement of 53 loads (19.09 loads of choice, 12.88 loads of select, 17.03 loads of trim and 4.27 loads of ground beef).
FEEDER CATTLE:
Feeder cattle futures started Monday just like the live cattle and lean hog contracts, simply unable to attract any trader interest. But as the day nears the noon hour and the corn market has continued to trade lower, the feeder cattle contracts are growing warm to the idea of trading mildly higher. August feeders are up $0.15 at $153.85, September feeders are up $0.35 at $155.25 and October feeders are up $0.37 at $156.10. Again this week, the feeder cattle contracts will closely eye both the cash cattle market and corn market as they will dictate how much upside potential the market holds.
LEAN HOGS:
Lean hog futures are trading in a slightly weaker fashion Monday morning as the market is unsure of its fate this week. Hog producers obviously want to see the strong prices continue; but so much of the market's strength lies in consumer behavior. If pork cutout values can show steady to mild gains, then the futures market could decide to chop cautiously higher. But if stark losses are endured in pork cutouts, then the futures market will inevitably fall. June lean hogs are down $1.00 at $113.22, July lean hogs are down $1.25 at $115.30 and August lean hogs are down $0.47 at $111.55.
The projected CME Lean Hog Index for 5/21/2021 is up $0.37 at $111.80 and the actual index for 5/20/2021 is up $0.02 at $111.43. Hog prices are lower on the National Direct Morning Hog Report, down $3.25 with a weighted average of $102.55 ranging from $101.17 to $112.00 on 2,151 head and a five-day rolling average of $106.26. Pork cutouts total 112.01 loads with 95.27 loads of pork cuts and 16.74 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: up $7.43, $128.29.
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