Friday Closing Livestock Market Update - Markets Say Good Riddance 2021, Hello 2022

GENERAL COMMENTS:

It was a quiet day for the livestock complex with little interest from traders helping drive the market, so the complex trended idly through all of Friday's trade. March corn is down 2 3/4 cents per bushel and March soybean meal is down $4.60. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 59.78 points and NASDAQ is down 96.59 points.

Friday to Friday livestock contracts scored the following changes: December live cattle gained $2.05, February live cattle $1.63, January feeder cattle gained $2.00, March feeder cattle gained $4.65, February lean hogs gained $0.45, April lean hogs gained $0.75.

LIVE CATTLE:

The live cattle contracts rounded out the day mixed -- slightly lower in the nearly contracts but modestly higher in the deferred. Without there being any more cash cattle trade and without USDA sharing any new data, the market's tone was rather quiet and uneventful. February live cattle closed $0.27 lower at $139.70, April live cattle closed $0.05 lower at $144.82 and June live cattle closed $0.12 higher at $139.20. Packers filled their needs earlier in the week and weren't willing to give the South $140 so a lot of Southern feedlots have cattle to roll over into next week. Northern dressed trade took place mostly on Tuesday and Wednesday with a full range of $218 to $226, mostly $220 to $222, $3 to $5 higher than the prior week's weighted average basis Nebraska. Thursday some light business was reported in Texas at $138, $3 higher than previous week. Kansas deals were few and far between on Thursday, but a few were listed at $138, also $3 higher.

MONDAY'S CASH CATTLE CALL: Higher. Heading into next week's trade, feedlots are expected to see heighted interest from packers, as over the last two weeks their purchases have been minimal and the market will finally be back to a normal schedule.

FEEDER CATTLE:

The feeder cattle contracts walked out of Friday's market with a fully higher close. With the corn market's mostly sideways trade throughout the day, the feeder cattle contracts had no troubles rallying higher as the market is anxious to roll into next week given that the cash cattle market is rallying and that it will be the first big run of sales since before the week of Christmas. January feeders closed $0.55 higher at $166.87, March feeders closed $0.95 higher at $169.95 and April feeders closed $0.90 higher at $172.75. The CME Feeder Cattle Index for Dec. 30: up $1.66, $165.21.

LEAN HOGS:

The lean hog market traded lower throughout the day as the market felt the effects of traders being absent from the market, the negative effects from Thursday's export report and then just plain nervousness of Prop 12 going into effect next week. February lean hogs closed $1.22 lower at $81.47, April lean hogs closed $1.10 lower at $86.72 and June lean hogs closed $0.92 lower at $97.55. First quarter hog demand typically isn't extremely strong in the U.S., so heading into next week pork cutout values are a wildcard. Though Prop 12 prices of California bound hogs are supposed to be reported on a specialty report, the market will still likely see some shifts as the kinks of the new onset get worked out. The CME Lean Hog Index for Dec. 29: unavailable at this time.

­­­­­MONDAY'S CASH HOG CALL: Steady. With so much still unknown about Prop 12, the market will likely trade cautiously.

Friday Midday Livestock Market Summary - Contracts Slow Drift Into New Year

GENERAL COMMENTS:

It's a slow, quiet day for the livestock complex. Even though the futures market may be open and lightly trading, the market sits without traders actively or eagerly engaged and the cash market business is wrapped up for the week. Comments will be short, sweet and to the point today as vital market-breaking information is limited and USDA isn't releasing any reports the New Year's Eve. March corn is up 1/2 cent per bushel and March soybean meal is down $1.00. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 74.07 points and NASDAQ is down 43.84 points.

LIVE CATTLE:

After trading stronger earlier this week, live cattle futures are drifting sideways, simply passing away the day before kicking back and enjoying the weekend festivities. February live cattle are down $0.27 at $139.70, April live cattle are down $0.02 at $144.85 and June live cattle are down $0.17 at $139.25. It's likely the market keeps with this sideways, uneventful chop through the rest of the day as there isn't anything to jazz the market into trading higher or lower. Come next week, the market will be eventful though, as packers operate at a normal schedule, sales barns kick off the New Year with heavy receipts and retailers begin to restock their coolers. There's a very slim chance some cash cattle trade could develop in the South but given that we haven't heard even the slightest peep thus far into Friday's trade, it is not likely anything will develop before the weekend.

FEEDER CATTLE:

Feeder cattle futures are slightly higher as the market cherishes the fact that corn has been pressed to trade lower recently. Next week should be a powerful week for feeders given that sale barns will reopen. January feeders are up $0.52 at $166.85, March feeders are up $1.00 at $170.00 and April feeders are up $0.85 at $172.70. Next week the feeder cattle complex could struggle if, for some reason, the corn market leaps higher and scares order buyers away from buying feeders. But given how strong the cash cattle market has been, buyers are expected to jump at the opportunity to buy true feeders.

LEAN HOGS:

The lean hog complex is trading much like the cattle contracts -- chopping sideways, pacing through Friday without much activity to drive the prices one way or another. February lean hogs are down $0.95 at $81.75, April lean hogs are down $0.70 at $87.12 and June lean hogs are down $0.22 at $98.25. Next week the market will have a plethora of new dynamics to manage as Prop12 go into effect. So enjoy the slow day today as next week will most likely be a wild ride.

Friday Morning Livestock Market Update - Limited Trading Expected

GENERAL COMMENTS:

Most of the cash cattle business is likely done for the week, even though Friday is a full futures trading day. Strong prices unfolded in the North this week with cash $3.00 to $5.00 higher. However, there have been limited sales in the South; those sales were somewhat disappointing with feedlots meeting packer bids of $138. That has not been widespread and not likely to open the floodgates Friday. Feedlots have indicated they want $140 and are willing to hold cattle to next week rather than sell for anything lower. Whether packers will give in to their demands, following the lead of Northern trade, will be seen Friday. Weekly export sales of beef were low at only 6,300 metric tons (mt). Boxed beef prices were mixed with choice down $0.45 and select up $1.14. It may be a slow trading day as traders look ahead to celebrating the New Year.

Hog futures had a setback Thursday, but not before setting a new contract high in June again. Traders did not have a cash report to provide direction due to packer submission problems. There will be no data released Friday due to USDA being closed for the holiday. This may leave prices to drift a bit as traders scalp the market and try to make a little profit to end the year. Otherwise, trading activity might be low due to no information being available. Cutouts made a huge jump Thursday with a gain of $7.06 providing some excitement. This was not enough to influence a positive close for futures. Weekly export sales for pork were the overriding factor with movement bearish at only 3,200 mt, down 90% from the four-week average.

	BULL SIDE		BEAR SIDE
1)	Cash cattle traded higher in the North this week and there is a good potential prices will be higher in the South as packers will need to step up to gain ownership of cattle.	1)	The standoff of packers and feedlots in the South continues. Both are resolved to hold the line through the end of the year. The few that traded Thursday at $138 may have set the stage for further business Friday.
2)	The overall trend remains up, which should keep traders confident with holding long positions into the new year.	2)	December live cattle futures go off the board Friday with February taking over as lead month. This may limit price movement.
3)	The large increase of pork cutouts Thursday indicates strong demand seems to be developing. There have been some wild swings of cutout prices, but the overall trend is higher.	3)	Disappointing weekly export sales raised the concern of ongoing international demand at a time when Prop 12 could also back up supplies.
4)	The weakness of hog futures Thursday did not change the strong uptrend that has developed over the past two weeks.	4)	The uncertainty surrounding no data being reported Friday may leave traders unwilling to participate in the market today, leaving futures floundering.

Thursday Closing Livestock Market Update - Some Southern Lots Sell at $138 While the Rest Hold Out for $140

GENERAL COMMENTS:

Even though the day traded in a slow manner, the cash cattle market and pork cutout prices kept the market interesting. Heading into Friday's trade, it's not likely that there will be much excitement, but the livestock complex is open. DTN will provide comments even though the USDA will not be open nor sharing any reports. Hog prices are delayed due to packer submission problems. March corn is down 9 1/2 cents per bushel and March soybean meal is down $4.50. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 90.55 points and NASDAQ is down 24.66 points.

LIVE CATTLE:

The live cattle contracts didn't end up rounding out the day higher, but the advancements made in the cash market this past week far outweigh Thursday's slightly lower close. February live cattle closed $0.75 lower at $139.97, April live cattle closed $0.45 lower at $144.87 and June live cattle closed $0.45 lower at $139.07. The South hadn't traded any cattle before the noon hour as Southern feedlots were sticking to their guns and demanding $138 but come midafternoon some lots in Kansas and Texas caved and left cattle walk for $138. The rest of the South has yet to trade and based on multiple sources, most feedlots are willing to carry cattle over into next week before they sell them at $138. Largely, Southern feedlots want $140 and given the substantial amount of leverage they've recently gained, it's likely that they will either get their full asking price or roll the cattle over. Meanwhile, trade in the North is done with as cattle traded $3.00 to $5.00 higher earlier in the week. With Northern feedlots being light on their numbers of market-ready cattle, packers knew that they had to offer up a considerable amount of coin before feedlots were going to let any cattle sell. There could be some more cattle trade in the South but it's looking like the bulk of the week's trade is done with. Thursday's slaughter is estimated at 117,000 head, steady with a week ago and 23,000 head more than a year ago.

Thursday's actual slaughter data shared that for the week ending Dec. 18 steer carcass weights fell by 5 pounds from the previous report to average 924 pounds, and heifers fell by 1 pound to average 850 pounds.

Beef net sales of 6,300 mt for 2021 were down 48% from the previous week and 55% from the prior four-week average. The three largest buyers were Japan (2,600 mt), South Korea (1,800 mt) and China (1,000 mt).

Boxed beef prices closed mixed: choice down $0.45 ($265.26) and select up $1.14 ($258.23) with a movement of 102 loads (66.71 loads of choice, 8.37 loads of select, 12.92 loads of trim and 14.23 loads of ground beef).

FRIDAY'S CASH CATTLE CALL: Steady in the North, potentially $2.00 higher in the South. The only question left on the table heading into Friday's trade for the cash cattle market is whether or not packers will give Southern feedlots another $2.00 to reach their $140 asking prices or if feedlots are going to carry the cattle over into next week.

FEEDER CATTLE:

The live cattle market may have not been able to lend much support to the feeder cattle complex, but upon seeing the corn market's $0.09 to $0.10 regression, feeders shot higher. While it is indeed exciting for feeders to see weaker corn and a rallying cash cattle market, it's extremely exciting to look ahead to next week's market as sale barns will likely be met with robust interest. With not having had a sale in the last two weeks, sale barns will likely have large receipts and a crowd full of interested buyers. And with the cash cattle market striding out and demanding more money, order buyers will be anxious to get cattle bought, trucked home and on feed to hopefully capture some of the profitability in the cash cattle market themselves. January feeders closed $0.45 higher at $166.32, March feeders closed $0.95 higher at $169.00 and April feeders closed $0.80 higher at $171.85. The CME Feeder Cattle Index for Dec. 29: up $4.10.

LEAN HOGS:

The lean hog market was rather disappointed in the day's export report, and even though pork cutouts saw a staggering increase, the market opted to trade cautiously after having rallied aggressively on Wednesday. February lean hogs closed $1.12 lower at $82.70, April lean hogs closed $0.62 lower at $87.82 and June lean hogs closed $0.57 lower at $98.47. Upon seeing Thursday morning's heightened pork cutout values, I expected the afternoon prices to be somewhat better but certainly not as good as what they ended up being. And while the loin set out and closed with the most aggressive gains (up $18.32), one can't overlook the jump in belly prices which closed $12.38 stronger, and the $3.73 jump in hams. Pork cutouts total 363.61 loads with 341.92 loads of pork cuts and 21.69 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: up $7.06, $91.35. Thursday's slaughter is estimated at 463,000 head, 9,000 head more than a week ago and 45,000 head more than a year ago. Wednesday's hog slaughter was revised to 474,000 head, 5,000 head less than what was originally stated. The CME Lean Hog Index for Dec. 28: up $0.38, $72.20.

Thursday's actual slaughter data for the week ending Dec. 18 shared that both live and dressed hog weights scaled lower. Live carcasses averaged 291 pounds (down 2 pounds from the previous week) and dressed carcasses averaged 217 pounds (down 1 pounds from the week before).

Pork net sales of 3,200 mt for 2021 were down 89% from the previous week and 90% from the prior four-week average. The three largest buyers were Mexico (14,700 mt), Japan (2,500 mt) and Nicaragua (100 mt).

­­­­­FRIDAY'S CASH HOG CALL: Lower. Given that next week Prop 12 goes into effect, I don't foresee Friday's cash market being that strong.

Thursday Midday Livestock Market Summary - Contracts Trade Mixed

GENERAL COMMENTS:

It's a mixed market environment for the livestock sector as the feeder cattle contracts trade higher but the live cattle and lean hog contracts both venture lower. The market isn't likely to see a lot more support develop until next week as traders step out early for the long weekend. March corn is down 11 1/4 cents per bushel and March soybean meal is down $5.40. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 0.12 points and NASDAQ is up 83.12 points.

LIVE CATTLE:

The market's sorry export report really put a damper on the cattle contracts. February live cattle are down $0.30 at $140.42, April live cattle are down $0.15 at $145.17 and June live cattle are down $0.25 at $139.27. But after the exciting week the live cattle contracts have had, it's OK that the market is veering lower ahead of a long holiday weekend. The most impressive factor of the week has been the tenacity of the cash cattle market. Here we sit, Thursday at noon, and still cattle haven't sold in the South. Rumor has it Southern feedlots are willing to roll their cattle over into next week if packers don't up their bids. Throughout the week dressed cattle in the North have traded from $218 to $226, mostly at $220 to $222 which is $3.00 to $5.00 higher than a week ago. If there's one thing I'm incredibly excited for in 2022 it is the regained confidence, regained leverage and regained spirit of feedlots! Asking prices in the South are pinned at $140-plus and, for the cattle left in the North, they are asking $224-plus.

Beef net export sales of 6,300 metric tons (mt) for 2021 were down 48% from the previous week and 55% from the prior four-week average. The three largest buyers were Japan (2,600 mt), South Korea (1,800 mt) and China (1,000 mt).

Boxed beef prices are mixed: choice down $0.65 ($265.06) and select up $0.80 ($257.89) with a movement of 55 loads (30.25 loads of choice, 5.47 loads of select, 11.95 loads of trim and 7.28 loads of ground beef).

FEEDER CATTLE:

The feeder cattle contracts were drifting lower, following in the shadow of the live cattle contracts, but upon seeing the 11-cent regression in the corn market the complex couldn't help itself but to trade higher. January feeders are up $0.70 at $166.57, March feeders are up $0.70 at $168.75 and April feeders are up $0.60 at $171.72. Once trade gets underway next week, it's likely sale barns see tremendous demand as order buyers look at the opportunity in the live cattle market and jump wildly into feeder cattle and calves.

LEAN HOGS:

The lean hog contracts are frolicking into the New Year with an overabundance of support. The complex seems somewhat unengaged and somewhat tired after having rallied aggressively into Wednesday's close. But the fact that Prop 12 will go into play come Monday leaves everyone on edge as the market has much to figure out. This morning's lousy export report only added salt to the wounds. Pork cutout values are doing wild things again, but make sure to check in on the afternoon's pork cutout close before you put a lot of clout in the midday figure. February lean hogs are down $0.90 at $82.92, April lean hogs are down $0.57 at $87.95 and June lean hogs are down $0.37 at $98.67.

Pork net export sales of 3,200 mt for 2021 were down 89% from the previous week and 90% from the prior four-week average. The three largest buyers were Mexico (14,700 mt), Japan (2,500 mt) and Nicaragua (100 mt).

The projected CME Lean Hog Index for 12/29/2021 is down $0.45 at $71.75 and the actual index for 12/28/2021 is up $0.38 at $72.20. Hog prices are not available due to confidentiality reasons, but we do know 5,545 head have traded and the five-day rolling average sits at $60.51. Pork cutouts total 233.43 loads with 219.91 loads of pork cuts and 13.52 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: up $9.25, $93.54.

Thursday Morning Livestock Market Update - Strong Cash Continues to Support

GENERAL COMMENTS:

Cattle have shown some exceptional strength so far this week with the potential for more gains. Packers had to pay as much as $5.00 higher Wednesday in the North in order to purchase the cattle they need for the beginning of the year. Cattle have not traded in the South yet, but that is expected to surface Thursday. Feedlots have the upper hand, knowing packers need to procure cattle. The online auction for fed cattle Wednesday showed no sales as bids of $138.50 were passed over as reserve prices were mostly $140. Boxed beef was higher again with choice up $1.05 and select up $1.00. Beef demand is uncertain moving into the new year, but the fact that packers are paying higher prices to obtain cattle provides a good indication it could remain strong. Maybe more beef will be on the menu in California after Prop 12 comes into effect and pork supplies in the state might be short resulting in higher prices. Consumers in the state may need more beef to fill the void.

Wednesday, December hog futures were able to regain the losses of Tuesday, even though cash declined $0.52 on the National Direct Afternoon report. April through August contracts were also able to close higher with June through August posting new contract highs. Some of the gains may have been due to spillover strength from cattle, but mostly it appears traders have a bullish attitude over prices and supplies next year. Cutouts declined $2.60 as wide price swings seem to be normal. Weekly export sales will need to be strong, or futures could retrace into the weekend. Friday hog slaughter is estimated at 272,000 head. There will be no slaughter on New Year's Day.

	BULL SIDE		BEAR SIDE
1)	Live cattle futures are making new contract highs, extending the strong rally of the past week. Traders are bullish.	1)	Cattle futures may retrace if weekly exports sales are not good. Traders may have become too optimistic.
2)	Cash is strong as packers need cattle to satisfy strong demand. Feedlots are confident of higher prices and are holding for higher cash.	2)	There are sufficient cattle for demand and, once packers have purchased sufficient supply, they will be less aggressive again.
3)	Hog futures continue to make new highs despite some uncertainty over Prop 12 and the strength of cash.	3)	Hog futures are supported by the anticipation of tighter supply next year, not by current fundamentals.
4)	Hog supply is expected to tighten next year, which may increase prices as both domestic and international demand needs to be satisfied.	4)	Overall demand will be uncertain as the market moves into 2022 and the impact of Prop 12 comes into effect. The industry will be uncertain as to the distribution of pork supply and how it will be absorbed.

Wednesday Closing Livestock Market Update - Cash Cattle Jump $3 to $5 Higher

GENERAL COMMENTS:

There's no better way to ring in the New Year than with a rallying cash cattle market. The cash cattle market has jumped $3.00 to $5.00 higher in the North. The South has yet to trade cattle as feedlots won't take steady bids. Hog prices closed lower on the National Direct Afternoon Hog Report, down $0.52 with a weighted average of $61.25 on 6,531 head. March corn is up 3/4 cent per bushel and March soybean meal is down $0.90. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 90.42 points and NASDAQ is down 15.50 points.

LIVE CATTLE:

If you've ever questioned how powerful a united front can be, look no further than the current cash cattle market and you'll understand how strong many voices, beckoning for the same thing, can be. The cash cattle market has sparked a rally in both live and feeder cattle futures and still Southern feedlots are holding out for more. With showlists favoring their position, boxed beef prices scaling higher and nearly all feedlots who sell in the cash market unwilling to take steady to $1.00 higher -- feedlots are demanding more money and more leverage. An old feeder once told me, "You're either on the menu or you're at the table; but I promise you, you aren't both." That's the perfect description for this week's market. Feedlots are pulling up a chair to the table and demanding more while the market is in their favor. February live cattle closed $1.32 higher at $140.72, April live cattle closed $1.37 higher at $145.32 and June live cattle closed $1.20 higher at $139.52. New contract highs were made throughout a number of the live cattle contracts Wednesday and with $145 representing the current April 2022 contract -- it's likely sale barns are lively next week as order buyers are anxious to get in the game. There's been some cash cattle trade in the North at $218 to $226, mostly $220 to $222, which is $3.00 to $5.00 higher than a week ago. And in the South -- the standoff between packers and feedlots is as intense as ever. Asking prices for cattle in the North are $224-plus and in the South $140-plus. The market should see more cash cattle trade develop before the week's end, but at this rate packers are going to have to up their ante because feedlots aren't willing to cave as they know packers need cattle for January.

Wednesday's slaughter is estimated at 120,000 head -- 1,000 head less than a week ago and 2,000 head more than a year ago.

Boxed beef prices closed higher: choice up $1.05 ($265.71) and select up $1.00 ($257.09) with a movement of 135 loads (82.81 loads of choice, 22.07 loads of select, 14.18 loads of trim and 15.44 loads of ground beef).

THURSDAY'S CASH CATTLE CALL: Steady with the week's trend to $2.00 higher. The market should see more cash cattle trade develop before the week's end, but at this rate packers are going to have to up their ante because feedlots aren't willing to cave as they know packers need cattle for January.

FEEDER CATTLE:

The feeder cattle complex has had to reply heavily on the live cattle market over the last two weeks given that sale barns are closed over the two holidays. The feeder cattle contracts were nearly given a free pass to trade higher throughout Wednesday's trade as the corn market didn't add any pressure as it traded mostly sideways and the cash cattle market shot higher, which pushed both feeder and live cattle futures higher. January feeders closed $2.32 higher at $165.87, March feeders closed $2.82 higher at $168.05 and April feeders closed $2.52 higher at $171.05. Corn can obviously pose a threat at any time to the success and rallying ability of the feeder cattle market, but cow-calf producers who held onto some calves to market in January are getting excited about what the market may have to offer. The CME Feeder Cattle Index 12/28/2021: down $0.07, $159.45.

LEAN HOGS:

Thankfully ,the lean hog complex jumped mostly higher before closing Wednesday afternoon, despite weaker cash and cutout prices. February lean hogs closed $1.20 higher at $83.82, April lean hogs closed $0.90 higher at $88.45 and June lean hogs closed $0.42 higher at $99.05. With the Jan. 1, New Year celebration close enough to touch, there will be a lot of change the hog market will endure during the dawning of the New Year with Proposition 12. It's hard to say what all the effects of the law will be, but we can undoubtedly expect hog prices in California will go up. But from there, the questions get numerous and the answers are unknown. With higher-priced pork in California, how much will their demand waiver? For the pork that can no longer go to California, what markets will it try to tap into? And how will that negatively affect prices? There's a lot to be monitoring on the hog side of things come 2022.

Pork cutouts totaled 236.44 loads with 214.38 loads of pork cuts and 22.06 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: down $2.60, $84.29. Wednesday's slaughter is estimated at 479,000 head -- 15,0000 head more than a week ago and 13,000 head more than a year ago. The CME Lean Hog Index 12/27/2021: up $0.66, $71.82.

THURSDAY'S CASH HOG CALL: Steady to somewhat weaker. Given that packers were extremely aggressive in the cash market earlier in the week, their need to dive into the market ahead of a long holiday weekend is thin.

Wednesday Midday Livestock Market Update - Cash Trade Drives Cattle Futures Higher

GENERAL COMMENTS:

Cattle futures were desperate for some fundamental support and upon seeing the market's stronger cash trade and higher boxed beef prices, both live and feeder cattle contracts shot higher. Meanwhile the lean hog complex isn't overly confident in its position as largely the market is chopping sideways. March corn is up 2 cents per bushel and March soybean meal is down $1.40. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 43.17 points and NASDAQ is down 61.73 points.

LIVE CATTLE:

It's amazing how when the fundamental and technical sides of the market work together how strong a rally truly can be. Seeing Tuesday afternoon's cash cattle trade in the North where most deals were for $220 (which is $3.00 higher than last week) but some late trade came in for $221 to $222 -- the cattle complex has grown resilient and is striding out with an impressive rally. February live cattle are up $1.97 at $141.40, April live cattle are up $1.87 at $145.82 and June live cattle are up $1.35 at $139.65. There are bids of $140 and $222 on the table in Iowa and Nebraska, but the South is still quiet as a church mouse. Asking prices are around $140-plus in the South and $224 in the North. Feedlots are hard pressed to get any cattle gone given they are extremely current on their showlists and they know packers are close to the knife. The fact that the market is rallying as aggressively as it is this week bodes extremely well for the market next week and processing speeds will be back to normal and packers will need to get cattle on the books.

The Fed Cattle Exchange Auction listed a total of 1,303 head (Kansas 1,162 head, Nebraska 141 head), all of which went unsold, as they did not meet the reserve prices, which ranged from $137.75 to $140. Opening prices ranged from $135 to $138, high bids ranged from $137.75 to $138.50. Another auction is scheduled for Thursday; we will see if it has better results.

Boxed beef prices are higher: choice up $1.21 ($265.87) and select up $1.11 ($257.20) with a movement of 79 loads (48.43 loads of choice, 10.90 loads of select, 8.61 loads of trim and 11.42 loads of ground beef).

FEEDER CATTLE:

With the corn contracts only trading 1 to 3 cents higher and the live cattle market pushing gains on the board and significant gains throughout the countryside -- the feeder cattle market feels free to trade higher and to do so in a confident manner. While it's utterly exciting to see the contracts trading higher through the odd spell between Christmas and the New Year holiday, what's even more exciting is the fact that next week when sale barns get back to their normal schedule they'll likely be met with extremely strong demand as strong cash cattle prices make buyers eager to get feeders and calves bought. January feeders are up $1.77 at $165.32, March feeders are up $2.55 at $167.77 and April feeders are up $2.25 at $170.80.

LEAN HOGS:

Lean hog futures have flopped from Tuesday's trend as now the nearby contracts are trading higher and the deferred contracts are being faced with modest resistance. Helping the market is the slightly stronger cash prices that Wednesday morning was welcomed with. But midday pork cutout prices are slightly weaker (we will know more on pork cutouts at the day's end). February lean hogs are up $0.92 at $83.55, April lean hogs are up $0.30 at $87.85 and June lean hogs are down $0.25 at $98.37.

The projected CME Lean Hog Index for 12/24/2021 is up $0.66 at $71.82, and the index for 12/23/2021 is down $0.49 at $71.16. Hog prices are higher on the National Direct Morning Hog Report, up $0.65 with a weighted average of $60.83, ranging from $58.00 to $62.00 on 4,621 head and a five-day rolling average of $60.49. Pork cutouts total 149.82 loads with 136.69 loads of pork cut and 13.13 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: down $0.86, $86.03.

Wednesday Morning Livestock Market Update - Further Gains Expected for Complex

GENERAL COMMENTS:

Packers needed cattle and raised bids in order to obtain them on Tuesday. Dressed cattle in the North traded as much as $3.00 higher at $220. This pushed front-month December live cattle futures up $1.17 into the close. December had to stay in line with cash as the contract settles on Friday. Boxed beef also provided some support with choice up $0.19 and select up $0.91. More business is expected to be done across the complex as feedlots now know what they can get and packers know what they need to pay. Business will likely want to be done earlier this week rather than later due to holiday and the end of the year. Feeder cattle futures posted a strong close as support stemmed from higher cash cattle as well as significant weakness of corn prices.

Hog futures showed some spread trading likely due to traders wanting to buy into later contracts due to tighter hog supplies later as indicated by the report last week. the large increase in cash yesterday of $2.20 as reported on the National Direct Afternoon report, did not have as much impact on would have been expected. Traders have seen some wild swings in cash over the past few weeks and were cautious over the maintaining of the strength the rest of the week. There is also greater concern developing over the slaughter pace that will be maintained due to the surge of COVID-19 and the disruptions that will cause in the workforce. Cutouts were higher providing some support, but that may be difficult to maintain through the rest of the week.

	BULL SIDE		BEAR SIDE
1)	Higher cash in the North should also develop in the South as packers clearly need to obtain cattle to satisfy strong demand.	1)	Later live cattle contracts did not gain much even though cash moved higher. Traders are a little cautious over the level of demand early next year.
2)	Lower corn price due to a slight change in the weather forecast for Southern Brazil was supportive to feeder cattle. This should continue today with follow through buying in futures.	2)	Disruptions in slaughter capacity due to the surge of COVID-19, may reduce the number of cattle packers can purchase and process due to the impact on the workforce.
3)	Strong cash and pork cutouts increase the price potential as we move through the end of the year. Packers are generally not aggressive during the holiday period.	3)	Packers want to purchase hogs now before the new year rolls around and Prop 12 is implemented. They may not be as aggressive early next year as they work through the implications of the new requirements.
4)	New contract high closes in June and later contracts indicates the market is bullish in the long term. Traders continue to increase their long positions.	4)	February hogs will feel the brunt of any back up of supply due to Prop 12 or slower demand in general.

Tuesday Closing Livestock Market Update - Higher Cash Cattle Prices Rally Cattle Contracts

GENERAL COMMENTS:

As the markets rounded the corner of the noon hour Tuesday, support appeared from the cash cattle market in the afternoon with Northern feedlots able to push the market $3.00 higher and cattle futures rallied through the day's close. Meanwhile the lean hog complex still felt some pressure in its nearby contracts but still closed mostly higher. Hog prices closed higher on the National Direct Afternoon Hog Report, up $2.02 with a weighted average of $61.77 on 7,160 head. March corn is down 10 cents per bushel and March soybean meal is up $0.80. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 95.83 points and NASDAQ is down 89.54 points.

LIVE CATTLE:

If the cash cattle market is rallying through the doggish spell between Christmas and New Year's, I'm excited to see what the market does after the New Year! Throughout the day some trade developed in the North for $220, which is $3.00 higher than last week's business. Upon seeing the market's higher cash cattle trade, traders eyed the higher boxed beef prices and nodded at the day's aggressive slaughter pace and ultimately opted to support the futures through the day's close. December live cattle closed $1.17 higher at $138.47, February live cattle closed $0.12 higher at $139.40 and April live cattle closed $0.27 higher at $143.95. 

Tuesday's slaughter is estimated at 122,000 head -- 2,000 head more than a week ago and 4,000 head more than a year ago.

Boxed beef prices closed higher: choice up $0.18 ($264.66) and select up $0.91 ($256.09) with a movement of 123 loads (81.24 loads of choice, 15.54 loads of select, 8.59 loads of trim and 17.82 loads of ground beef).

WEDNESDAY'S CASH CATTLE CALL: Steady. Seeing the North able to advance prices $3.00 stronger, prices will likely hold there in the North. But given that the South has yet to really trade any cattle, that market still has to be determined. Given the influence the North's market will have on the South, it's likely that the Southern market will see an increase as well.

FEEDER CATTLE:

The cash cattle market came through, pushed prices higher and lent the feeder cattle market the support it desperately needed. Helping matters as well was the plumet in corn prices as the nearby corn futures contract endured a 10-cent drop. Sale barns are mostly closed this week and won't truly reopen until after the first of the year; but when they do it's likely they will find impeccable interest as the cash cattle market is rallying, which always invigorates feeder cattle buyers. January feeders closed $1.15 higher at $163.55, March feeders closed $1.95 higher at $165.22 and April feeders closed $1.60 higher at $168.52. The CME feeder cattle index 12/27/2021: up $0.42, $159.56.

LEAN HOGS:

One would have thought the $2.02 jump in the cash hog market would have been enough support amid the slightly stronger pork cutout to pull the nearby contracts of February and April to round out the day higher like the rest of the complex. But as the day closed, the contracts kept their lower tone, which is likely being pressured by the unknown nature of how Prop12 will fully affect the marketplace and the slower pace at which processing plants have been running the last couple of days. But the deferred contracts still closed mildly higher as producers are looking forward to manageable supplies and hopefully continued strong demand. February lean hogs closed $1.02 lower at $82.62, April lean hogs closed $0.17 lower at $87.55 and June lean hogs closed $0.52 higher at $98.80. Pork cutouts total 340.94 loads with 304.20 loads of pork cuts and 36.74 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: up $0.56, $86.89. Tuesday's slaughter is estimated at 480,000 head -- 4,000 head more than year ago and 30,000 more than a year ago. Monday's slaughter was revised to 473,000 head -- 7,000 head less than what was originally stated. The CME Lean Hog Index 12/23/2021: down $0.51, $71.16.

WEDNESDAY'S CASH HOG CALL: Steady. After a $2.00 increase and slightly weaker processing speeds, I'd bet that hog prices trend steady through Wednesday.

Tuesday Midday Livestock Market Summary - Modest Support Works its Way Into the Complex

GENERAL COMMENTS:

The livestock complex is seeing fairly even, modest support throughout the entire market. Both the live cattle and lean hog contracts are looking for support from the fundamental side of the market. If the fundamentals do come to support the complex, then fully higher trade should be achievable. March corn is down 3 3/4 cents per bushel and March soybean meal is up $5.30. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 129.09 points and NASDAQ is down 39.63 points.

LIVE CATTLE:

Live cattle futures are anxious for the cash cattle market to trade at which point the futures market will feel freer to trade robustly. The market is thriving on the higher boxed beef prices and the currentness of the market. Traders know that it's going to be an odd week for the cash market given that it's a holiday shortened week, but traders still want the green light from the cash market before boldly supporting the technical side of the market. December live cattle are up $0.37 at $137.67, February live cattle are down $0.47 at $138.80 and April live cattle are down $0.02 at $143.65. The cash cattle market hasn't seen any interest yet and it's likely the bulk of the week's trade waits until Wednesday to really break loose. Asking prices are noted at $137 to $138 in the South; the North has yet to disclose what their asking prices will be.

Boxed beef prices are higher: choice up $2.01 ($266.49) and select up $2.55 ($257.73) with a movement of 65 loads (46.27 loads of choice, 7.08 loads of select, 3.78 loads of trim and 7.72 loads of ground beef).

FEEDER CATTLE:

Upon the corn market's regression Tuesday morning, the feeder cattle contracts are trading higher as they feel relief from higher input prices and are getting mild support from the live cattle contracts. January feeders are up $0.70 at $163.10, March feeders are up $1.00 at $164.27 and April feeders are up $0.87 at $167.80. So long as the corn market continues to veer lower and the live cattle market can help support the market somewhat, feeder futures stand a good chance at closing higher. If the cash cattle market can indeed trade cattle steady to somewhat higher this week, then the market really stands a good chance at keeping its upward momentum.

LEAN HOGS:

Nearby lean hog futures are softer, but the rest of the complex is continuing its upward progression as the market is bullish for 2022. February lean hogs are down $0.70 at $82.95, April lean hogs are down $0.07 at $87.65 and June lean hogs are up $0.42 at $98.50. Tuesday's weaker cash close and weaker pork cutout values is what's weighing on the nearby contracts, but if those market can close higher Tuesday afternoon there's a strong likelihood the complex regains its fully higher status.

The projected CME Lean Hog Index for 12/27/2021 is up $0.65 at $71.82, and the actual index for 12/23/2021 is down $0.50 at $71.17. There are no comparisons to be drawn in the cash hog market as packers had problems submitting data Monday. There have been 4,470 head sold, with weighted average of $60.18, ranging from $58.00 to $62.00 and a five-day rolling average of $60.59. Pork cutouts total 163.10 loads with 144.43 loads of pork cuts and 18.67 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: up $3.78, $90.11.

Tuesday Morning Livestock Market Update - Cattle Traders Look for Direction

GENERAL COMMENTS:

Cattle futures made the adjustment last week and are now treading water until further direction is seen from cash. The December contract closed slightly higher as it remains close to cash due to the contract closing on Friday. Showlists this week are mixed. There were no bids or offers posted as packers and feedlots will be unwilling to tip their hand too early. Feedlots are expected to look for $1.00 higher cash and will probably hold the line at no less than steady with last week. Packers would like to purchase at lower prices, but demand needs to be met and they will need cattle. Boxed beef prices were higher with choice up $1.54 and select up $2.23. The Commitment of Traders report showed funds reducing their net-long position by 9,364 contracts, bringing their net-long positions to 87,929 futures contracts.

Hog traders were cautious Thursday but bought into futures Monday, feeling more confident due to the friendly Hogs and Pigs report. June through August made new contract highs Monday as traders have set their sights on the long-term potential. The exuberance was somewhat subdued as cash on the National Direct Afternoon report showed a decline of $0.78. Cutouts plummeted $5.14, led by a huge decline in hams of $19.58. The Commitment of Traders report showed funds increasing their net-long position by 1,358 contracts to a new net-long position of 64,424 futures contracts.

	BULL SIDE		BEAR SIDE
1)	Live cattle futures were able to hold the gains of last week, supported by the Cattle on Feed report.	1)	Cash will need to hold at last week's level or increase to keep cattle futures from falling back.
2)	Stronger boxed beef prices indicate continued strong demand.	2)	Cattle futures were unable to move higher Monday, giving the impression an increase of cash this week has already been factored in.
3)	New contract highs in June and later hog contracts indicate a bullish market anticipating tighter supplies as the year progresses.	3)	The huge decline of cutouts nearly eliminated quite a bit of the gain last Thursday. This coupled with the weakness of cash could put pressure on futures.
4)	Cumulative export sales of pork this year total 1.884 million metric tons (mmt). This is the second highest amount on record.	4)	February hogs carry a significant premium to cash, which may limit upside potential unless cash finds footing.

Monday Closing Livestock Market Update - Trade Sends Hogs Higher

GENERAL COMMENTS:

The cattle contracts struggled throughout Monday's trade, but the lean hog contracts leaped with ample support, still steaming from last week's Hogs and Pigs report. If feedlots can push the cash cattle market to trade steady to $1.00 stronger, then both live cattle and feeder cattle contracts stand a chance at trading higher. Hog prices closed lower on the National Direct Afternoon Hog Report, down $0.78 with a weighted average of $59.75 on 7,435 head. March corn is up 9 cents per bushel and March soybean meal is up $7.80. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 351.82 points and NASDAQ is up 217.89 points.

LIVE CATTLE:

It was a mixed day for the live cattle complex as the futures market saw some support and some resistance, but boxed beef prices closed higher and the cash market is expected to trade steady, if not a little stronger. December live cattle closed $0.25 higher at $137.30, February live cattle closed $0.35 lower at $139.27 and April live cattle closed $0.25 lower at $143.67. The cash cattle market didn't see any interest throughout Monday's trade, and it's not likely that the market sees much strong attention until Wednesday, even though it's a short week. New showlists appear to be mixed, higher in Kansas and Texas, but lower in Nebraska and Colorado.

Last week's negotiated cash cattle trade totaled 36,779 head. Of that, 86% (31,632 head) were committed for the nearby delivery, while the remaining 14% (5,147 head) were committed for the deferred delivery.

Monday's slaughter is estimated at 116,000 head, 4,000 head less than a week ago and 1,000 head less than a year ago. Friday's slaughter is estimated at 10,000 head and Saturday's slaughter was estimated at zero head.

Boxed beef prices closed higher: choice up $1.65 ($264.59) and select up $2.23 ($255.18) with a movement of 116 loads (83.81 loads of choice, 11.22 loads of select, 11.18 loads of trim and 9.65 loads of ground beef).

TUESDAY'S CASH CATTLE CALL: Steady to $1.00 stronger. I don't foresee feedlots letting too many cattle go until they get steady, if not stronger prices than last week.

FEEDER CATTLE:

Without the live cattle complex trading fully higher and there being no interest in the cash cattle market yet, the feeder cattle contracts had little hope of trading higher while the nearby corn contracts rallied $0.09 higher in their nearby contracts. The deferred contracts of the second half of 2022 traded mildly higher, which makes sense as supplies of feeder cattle and calves are going to be significantly lighter than what they were this year. January feeders closed $1.05 lower at $162.40, March feeders closed $0.47 lower at $163.27 and April feeders closed $0.45 lower at $166.92. Until the live cattle market extends some support, the feeder cattle contracts are expected to trade lower as the market doesn't have any fundamental support. The CME Feeder Cattle Index for Dec. 24: down $0.08, $159.14.

LEAN HOGS:

Still rallying from the strong Quarterly Hogs and Pigs report, the lean hog market didn't pay any attention to the cash hog market's lower close or the sharply lower close of pork cutouts. February lean hogs closed $0.42 higher at $83.65, April lean hogs closed $1.07 higher at $87.72 and June lean hogs closed $0.80 higher at $98.10. Heading into Tuesday's trade, the market will likely feel some push back. Though the market's long-term trajectory is friendly, the spot market has some hurdles to face as both cash and pork cutout prices are weaker. Monday's slaughter is estimated at 480,000 head, steady with a week ago and 8,000 head less than a year ago. Friday's slaughter is estimated at 44,000 head and Saturday's slaughter is estimated at zero head. There was a correction to last Thursday's slaughter, as there was only 454,000 head slaughter, which is 10,000 head less than what was originally stated. Pork cutouts total 370.09 loads with 320.56 loads of pork cuts and 49.53 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: down $5.14, $86.33. The CME Lean Hog Index for Dec. 22: down $0.66, $71.67.

­­­­­TUESDAY'S CASH HOG CALL: Steady. While I understand that pork cutout values crashed lower and that packers have some hogs committed for the nearby term, packers could also want to get as many hogs as they can committed as demand should pick back up after the new year.

Monday Midday Livestock Market Summary - Cattle Scale Lower While Hogs Leap With Support

GENERAL COMMENTS:

As the livestock futures waltz into Monday's trade, the cattle contracts haven't been met with much support, but the lean hog contracts are eager to trade through this week and get to 2022 as fast as possible. Once the cash cattle market begins to trade, live cattle futures may stand a chance at trading higher as at least steady prices are expected. March corn is up 7 3/4 cents per bushel and March soybean meal is up $5.10. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 227.95 points and NASDAQ is up 178.60 points.

LIVE CATTLE:

Live cattle futures aren't overly enthused to welcome the new week, but if the cash cattle market can summon some interest the complex may stand a chance at trading higher. Last week the cattle that sold early in the week saw the lowest prices the market had to offer and, by Wednesday's arrival, packers were willing to give a little more to secure the cattle they needed. With the market able to push packers into paying higher prices at midweek, the market stands an excellent chance at trading at least steady this week if not $1.00 higher. December live cattle are down $0.07 at $136.97, February live cattle are down $0.42 at $139.20 and April live cattle are down $0.32 at $143.60. New showlists appear to be mixed, higher in Kansas, and Texas, but lower in Nebraska/Colorado.

The bulk of last week's business took place Tuesday and Wednesday with just a handful trade in Nebraska and Iowa on Thursday. Southern live trade had a full range of $133.50 to $136, mostly $135, compared to the previous week's weighted averages; Kansas was generally $2 lower while Texas was roughly $1 lower. Northern dressed business had a full range of $215 to $218, mainly $217 to $218, steady to $1 lower than the prior week's weighted average basis Nebraska.

Last week's negotiated cash cattle trade totaled 36,779 head. Of that 86% (31,632 head) were committed for the nearby delivery, while the remaining 14% (5,147 head) were committed for the deferred delivery.

Boxed beef prices are mixed: choice down $0.12 ($262.82) and select up $0.79 ($253.74) with a movement of 54 loads (35.31 loads of choice, 6.39 loads of select, 5.73 loads of trim and 7.06 loads of ground beef).

FEEDER CATTLE:

With the corn market's jazzy 7-cent rally in its nearby contracts, the feeder cattle complex is desperate to muster up some support, though the sector knows that that's going to be an uphill battle this week. From now until after the New Year, sale barns mostly take the two weeks off to rest up and take a much-needed break. There will be some replacement female sales here and there, but by and large the feeder cattle market won't see a sizeable test of calves/feeders sell until after the New Year. This negatively affects the CME Feeder Cattle Index and leaves the futures complex to fend for itself. And, while the market was able to trade mostly higher last week, doing that two weeks in a row is a tough row to hoe. January feeder cattle are down $0.95 at $162.50, March feeders are down $0.47 at $163.27 and April feeders are down $0.60 at $166.77.

LEAN HOGS:

It's a new week and the lean hog market is rallying as the complex dotes on the latest Quarterly Hogs and Pigs report which was released last Thursday before the markets closed for Christmas. Supply and demand mechanics will always influence in the market, and with the 4% decline in the number of market hogs producers are hopeful higher prices will find their way into the market sooner rather than later. Producers are especially excited for the New Year to pass by as hogs weighing 180 or more were down 6%. If demand holds at least steady, producers are apt to demand more of the market's dollar in the near future. February lean hogs are up $0.55 at $83.77, April lean hogs are up $1.05 at $87.70 and June lean hogs are up $0.75 at $98.05.

The projected CME Lean Hog Index for 12/22/2021 is down $0.66 at $71.67, and the actual index for 12/21/2021 is down $0.69 at $72.33. Hog prices are unavailable due to packer submission problems. Pork cutouts total 232.46 loads with 203.72 loads of pork cuts and 28.74 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: up $0.75, $92.22.

Monday Morning Livestock Market Update - Traders Will Adjust to the Reports

GENERAL COMMENTS:

Traders seemed to be confident of the Cattle on Feed report being somewhat bullish. The bottom line is that the report ended up being neutral for the most part. On Feed numbers were near where they were expected at 100%. Placements at 104% were somewhat bearish with the trade expecting 103.4% However, this was offset by Marketings at 105% of a year ago compared to the estimate of 104.4%. Traders may take their pick of which way they want to go with the market, but sellers may get the upper hand due to the large increase of futures on Thursday that now does not seem necessary. Futures may have been overdone to the upside. Feedlots will want a repeat of last week and will attempt to hold out for higher cash after being able to reverse lower cash earlier last week. They hope packers will need cattle and will buy at no less than steady cash. Some support will come from higher boxed beef prices with choice gaining $1.08 and select up $2.12.

Traders were more cautious in hog futures on Thursday, uncertain of what the Hogs & Pigs report might reveal. With the report being neutral to friendly, there is a strong possibility of aggressive buying of futures Monday. All Hogs totaled 74.201 million head, down 4% from a year ago. Hogs kept for marketing was also down 4% at 68,821 million head, indicating numbers may finally tighten as had been anticipated for quite some time. Hogs kept for breeding was as anticipated, providing no surprise. Cash did not support the market as the National Direct Afternoon report was down $0.56. However, the large increase of cutouts on Thursday of $6.80 coupled with the slightly bullish report, should move futures higher.

	BULL SIDE		BEAR SIDE
1)	Cash cattle came back last week to close steady. Feedlots will hold for no worse than steady cash this week and hopefully more.	1)	Cattle futures may set back due to the Cattle of Feed report not being as bullish as expected. Futures may have moved too high last week and need to correct.
2)	Cattle futures broke out of the downtrend, which might generate greater buying interest from technical traders.	2)	Even though boxed beef was higher on Thursday, prices have been declining and the trend is down.
3)	The friendly Hogs & Pigs report could generate aggressive buying interest as traders look ahead to tighter supplies.	3)	Hog supplies may tighten over time, but there still are plentiful supplies available at the present time.
4)	Packers may be aggressive buyers Monday to get an early start on purchasing for the week. Cash may be higher as market sentiment may be changing.	4)	Packers may not be aggressive this week as it is still in a holiday period with slaughter not running at full capacity.

Thursday Closing Livestock Market Update - Cattle Round Out Week Higher Before Heading to Christmas

GENERAL COMMENTS:

The lean hog contracts saw some push back as the day neared it's close, but both the live cattle and feeder cattle contracts closed fully higher. The Quarterly Hogs and Pigs Report was found to be bullish, and the Cattle on Feed report was neutral. Hog prices closed lower on the National Direct Afternoon Hog Report, down $0.56 with a weighted average of $60.53 on 3,930 head. March corn is up 3 1/4 cents per bushel and March soybean meal is up $2.20. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 292.21 points and NASDAQ is up 166.35 points.

The Markets will be closed on Friday, Dec. 24 and DTN's comments will resume on Monday, Dec. 27. Thank you all for your readership; I pray that you take some time this week to cherish your loved ones and enjoy the holiday spirit.

LIVE CATTLE:

It was a quiet day throughout the cash market, but the futures market pulled off a commendable rally before heading out into Christmas weekend. December live cattle closed $1.30 higher at $137.05, February live cattle closed $2.25 higher at $139.62 and April live cattle closed $1.80 higher at $143.92. It helped that boxed beef prices ticked higher throughout the day, the cash cattle market demanded steady money on Wednesday and that the sheer number of cattle marketed in November came out 5% higher than a year ago in the latest Cattle on Feed report. So, all in all, it was a great way to round out the week's trade ahead of Christmas. There wasn't any cash cattle trade to really speak of, as packers finished most of their buying up on Wednesday. Thursday's slaughter is estimated at 117,000 head, 5,000 head less than a week ago and incomparable to a year ago. Thursday's actual slaughter data shared another new high in steer carcass weights for the year. For the week ending Dec. 11, steers gained a pound from the previous week to average 929 pounds, and heifers stayed steady from the previous report to average 851 pounds.

Beef net sales of 12,000 mt for 2021 were down 30% from the previous week and 23% from the prior four-week average. The three largest buyers were China (3,800 mt), Japan (3,700 mt) and South Korea (2,800 mt).

Boxed beef prices closed higher: choice up $1.08 ($262.94) and select up $2.12 ($252.95) with a movement of 91 loads (61.48 loads of choice, 15.23 loads of select, 6.96 loads of trim and 6.84 loads of ground beef).

MONDAY'S CASH CATTLE CALL: Steady to $1.00 higher. Given that feedlots were able to strengthen the cash market this past week, there's a good chance that they can demand at least steady money, if not $1.00 or $2.00 more in next week's trade.

FEEDER CATTLE:

The feeder cattle contracts rounded out the week with phenomenal gains as the market closed more than $1.00 stronger in its nearby contracts and closed just shy of $1.00 stronger in its deferred contracts. January feeders closed $1.65 higher at $163.45, March feeders closed $1.82 higher at$163.75 and April feeders closed $1.82 higher at $167.37. Even though the corn market did close higher as well, feeders took the strength that stemmed from the live cattle market and rounded out the week fully higher. Given that sale barns won't be open next week, as we have one more week of odd holiday trading, the feeder cattle complex could wane lower given that they markets will likely only see modest interest. However, upon the new year's arrival, and once the market can get back to a normal schedule, demand could help drive prices higher especially if the cash cattle market is seeing strong interest from packers. The CME Feeder Cattle Index for Dec. 22: up $0.03, $160.28.

LEAN HOGS:

Though the USDA made a couple of revisions on the latest Quarterly Hogs and Pigs report that was shared Thursday afternoon, hog enthusiasts were pleased not to find any startling surprises. The biggest bullish conclusion stemmed from the fact that not only was the sheer number of hogs to be marketed lower, but the heaviest weight group (those weighing 180 pounds and more) were down 6% from a year ago at 12,853,000 head. This encourages producers, as they were hopeful that they'd see higher prices in the first quarter of 2022 and, with supplies being manageable, their aspirations may come true. The hog futures waned lower into Thursday's close even though the pork cutout market saw a fancy increase (up $6.80 higher), and the day's hog report was bullish. Largely the weaker close came as traders checked out for the holidays. February lean hogs closed $0.12 lower at $83.22, April lean hogs closed $0.05 lower at $86.65 and June lean hogs closed $0.20 lower at $97.30. Pork cutouts totaled 321.39 loads with 300.12 loads of pork cuts and 21.27 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: up $6.80, $91.47. Thursday's slaughter is estimated at 465,000 head, 7,000 head more than a week ago and incomparable to a year ago. Wednesday's hog slaughter was revised to 464,000 head, 10,000 head less than what was originally stated. The CME Lean Hog Index for Dec. 21: down $0.69, $72.33.

Pork net sales of 28,800 mt for 2021 were down 8% from the previous week but up 5% from the prior four-week average. The three largest buyers were Mexico (14,000 mt), South Korea (7,100 mt) and Japan (3,800 mt).

Thursday's actual slaughter data shared that for the week ending Dec. 11, hog live and dressed weights remained steady as live weights averaged 293 pounds and dressed weights averaged 218 pounds.

­­­­­MONDAY'S CASH HOG CALL: Lower. Packers will likely be timid in Monday's market as they hope that workers show up following the holiday break and they have most of their supplies booked for the week ahead.

Thursday Midday Livestock Market Summary - Contracts Rally Into Afternoon

GENERAL COMMENTS:

It's a peaceful day where the livestock contracts are rallying into the afternoon, and the market isn't overly concerned about much. Before heading out for the Christmas festivities, make plans to look over this afternoon's Quarterly Hogs and Pigs report and the latest Cattle on Feed report. March corn is up 1 3/4 cents per bushel and March soybean meal is up $1.20. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 212.12 points and NASDAQ is up 127.13 points.

LIVE CATTLE:

The live cattle contracts are keeping with their rally even though the morning's export report was weaker. The cash cattle market hasn't seen any strong renewed interest, and with feedlots coming into this week extremely current, their desire to take subpar bids is slim to none. I don't foresee a lot more trade developing before the day's close even though a few bids have been offered in Nebraska at $135 live and $217 dressed. Before everyone heads out for the weekend, cattle enthusiasts are interested to see how this afternoon's Cattle on Feed report comes out. Analysts had a wide array of opinions on where placements would land, but given that the market has seen so many calves already placed and earlier than normal, I expect placements will be on the lighter side of the spectrum. December live cattle are up $0.90 at $136.65, February live cattle are up $1.40 at $138.77 and April live cattle are up $1.22 at $143.35.

Beef net sales of 12,000 metric tons (mt) for 2021 were down 30% from the previous week and 23% from the prior four-week average. The three largest buyers were China (3,800 mt), Japan (3,700 mt) and South Korea (2,800 mt).

Boxed beef prices are higher: choice up $1.21 ($263.07) and select up $2.06 ($252.89) with a movement of 64 loads (42.54 loads of choice 10.47 loads of select, 5.96 loads of trim and 5.47 loads of ground beef).

FEEDER CATTLE:

The feeder cattle contracts are rallying into Thursday afternoon as the live cattle complex lends some support amid the higher tick in corn prices. January feeders are up $0.87 at $162.65, March feeders are up $1.27 at $163.20, and April feeders are up $1.22 at $166.77. The feeder cattle contracts support really lies in the hands of the live cattle market and the interest of traders -- so long as the live cattle market continues to trade higher, the complex should be able to round out the day on a positive note.

LEAN HOGS:

The lean hog complex is rallying as the market longs for a bullish quarterly Hogs and Pigs report this afternoon. The market's export report was neutral, not really helping nor hindering the market in any regard. But with the afternoon Hogs and Pigs report expecting to unveil fewer supplies of market-ready hogs, producers are hoping that the demand the market sees now will only yield higher prices in the months to come as supplies of market-ready hogs are manageable. February lean hogs are up $0.42 at $83.77, April lean hogs are up $0.45 at $87.15 and June lean hogs are up $0.20 at $97.70. Before you get overly concerned with the $11 jump in pork cutout values, remember it's the day before Christmas break and to wait to see what the afternoon's report shows before drawing any conclusions.

Pork net sales of 28,800 mt for 2021 were down 8% from the previous week but up 5% from the prior 4-week average. The three largest buyers were Mexico (14,000 mt), South Korea (7,100 mt) and Japan (3,800 mt).

The projected lean hog index for 12/21/2021 is down $0.69 at $72.33, and the actual index for 12/20/2021 is up $0.09 at $73.02. Hog prices are lower on the National Direct Morning Hog Report, down $0.65 with a weighted average of $60.44, ranging from $59 to $65 on 3,525 head and a five-day rolling average of $59.94. Pork cutouts total 205.75 loads with 191.42 loads of pork cuts and 14.34 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: up $11, $95.67.

Thursday Morning Livestock Market Update - Trade Positioning Ahead of Reports

GENERAL COMMENTS:

Just when it seemed the table was set as far as cash business was concerned, packers stepped up to the plate to purchase cattle at steady money with last week. Packers could not wait any longer to procure needed cattle and had to meet the offers of feedlots. This may provide greater confidence next week as demand is holding. The concern over potential restrictions on public places due to the surge in COVID has been put to rest and President Biden indicated there would be no shutdowns. This provided confidence for the restaurant industry and should keep beef demand strong. Boxed beef prices increased Wednesday with choice up $0.47 and select up $0.91. USDA will release the Cattle on Feed report this afternoon. The estimate is for cattle on feed to be 99.8% of a year ago, placements at 103.4% and marketings at 104.4%. It will be interesting to see where it lands as the on feed and placement estimates have a wide range of guesses.

Hogs have been impressive over the past two days as cash prices have rallied with packers aggressively looking for hogs. Cash on the National Direct Afternoon report was $0.55 higher. It is unlikely we will see higher cash Thursday, but it certainly looks like much of the gains might be held for the week. Cutouts were a little anchor on the market with price down $0.24. Traders at first Thursday will be assessing weekly export sales in the hopes that international interest remains strong. Then they will trade in anticipation of the numbers on the Hogs and Pigs report due out after the market closes. All hogs are estimated at 97.2% of a year ago. Kept for breeding is estimated at 100.1% with marketings at 97.0%. Friday hog slaughter is estimated at 42,000 head with nothing scheduled for Saturday due to Christmas.

	BULL SIDE		BEAR SIDE
1)	Cash trading back to steady with last week is a victory for feedlots and may set the stage for next week.	1)	Live cattle futures have yet to break out of the downtrend that began a month ago. Packers have been able to obtain the desired supplies without too much difficulty.
2)	A friendly export sales report and Cattle on Feed report could turn the trend higher.	2)	Even though cold storage of beef in November was 4% below a year ago at 493.3 million pounds, inventory grew 4% from October. Supply may continue to build.
3)	Stronger cash this week may indicate packers are seeing stronger demand and tighter supplies early next year.	3)	Belly stocks in cold storage at the end of November showed an increase of 117% from October and were 8% above a year ago.
4)	Futures are poised to retest the highs of a month ago. A breakout above that level would open the way for higher prices as technical traders would increase buying interest.	4)	A bearish Hogs and Pigs report could pull futures down quickly, possibly eliminating the gains of the week.

Wednesday Closing Livestock Market Update - Winning Opportunities for the Complex

GENERAL COMMENTS:

What a day it was for the livestock complex! Heading into the week, we all thought that the week's trade would be mundane and boring, given that the holiday slug was putting a damper on things. Thankfully, the robust demand in the market helped fuel higher cash prices for both cattle and hogs and the contracts closed higher too. Hog prices closed higher on the National Direct Afternoon Hog Report, up $0.55 with a weighted average of $61.09 on 5,801 head. March corn is up 4 1/4 cents per bushel and March soybean meal is up $7.80. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 261.19 points and NASDAQ is up 180.80 points.

LIVE CATTLE:

Just when you think that the market is going to venture lower given that it's the week of Christmas, feedlots proved us all wrong as they sat quietly knowing that packers needed cattle and, by the day's end, they saw the higher prices they patiently waited for. I've said it before and I'll say it again, it's powerful just how rewarding it can be to simply wait a day. Most of the week's business has traded for $1.00 or $2.00 lower than last week's weighted average, but upon seeing Wednesday's prices of $136 and $218 in some regions, those prices are fully steady with last week's trade. Thankfully, the phenomenal beef demand that's kept processing speeds elevated throughout the year has enticed packers to continue to run aggressive processing speeds again this week and consequently pushed them into needing to get some more cattle booked this week. The futures contracts were trading higher before the cash cattle market's trade ventured to higher prices than what Tuesday garnished, but the support from the technical side of the market only made feedlots more confident in waiting for the prices they wanted. December live cattle closed $0.22 higher at $135.75, February live cattle closed $0.45 higher at $137.37 and April live cattle closed $0.77 higher at $142.12. 

Wednesday's slaughter is estimated at 121,000 head, 8,000 head more than a week and year ago. Don't forget that Thursday afternoon there will be a new Cattle on Feed report released.

Boxed beef prices closed higher: choice up $0.47 ($261.86) and select up $0.91 ($250.83) with a movement of 138 loads (91.26 loads of choice, 14.27 loads of select, 14.10 loads of trim and 18.22 loads of ground beef).

THURSDAY'S CASH CATTLE CALL: Steady with the week's trend. I was utterly surprised to see Wednesday's cash cattle advancement and must commend feedlots on their patience this week. Given that Thursday will be the last trading day of the week, it's likely that most of the week's trade is done with and we will only see drabs of clean up trade.

FEEDER CATTLE:

When cash cattle prices grow stronger midweek during the week of Christmas, you're darn right the feeder cattle contracts are going to feel supported and overlook the corn market's rally to close the day fully higher. The feeder cattle contracts were struggling earlier in Wednesday's trade as the market had little support boosting its morale, but upon seeing both the live cattle contracts rally and the strength in the cash cattle market, the feeder cattle contracts shot higher and championed a fully higher close on Wednesday. January feeders closed $0.92 higher at $161.77, March feeders closed $0.10 stronger at $161.92 and April feeders closed $0.15 higher at $165.55. The CME Feeder Cattle Index for Dec. 21: down $0.08, $160.25.

LEAN HOGS:

The cash market rounded out the day higher, the futures market rallied through closing and pork cutouts climbed higher too -- talk about a winning day for the lean hog market! Ahead of Thursday, the market begins to get anxious for the newest export report. Ahead of the new year, the market hopes to find continued export opportunities in 2022, and any heightened demand will only help the market as producers know that there will be some challenges with Prop 12. The lean hog contracts rallied throughout the day, not seeming to be concerned about taking a break after Tuesday's aggressive rally. February lean hogs closed $0.92 higher at $83.35, April lean hogs closed $1.12 higher at $86.70 and June lean hogs closed $0.80 higher at $97.50. Pork cutouts totaled 257.20 loads with 222.09 loads of pork cuts and 35.11 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: down $0.24, $84.67. Wednesday's slaughter is estimated at 474,000 head - 37,000 head more than a week ago and 44,000 head more than a year ago. Don't forget that Thursday afternoon a new Hogs and Pigs report will be released. The CME Lean Hog Index for Dec. 20: up $0.09, $73.02.

­­­­­THURSDAY'S CASH HOG CALL: Steady. Packers have been aggressive in this week's cash hog market, but given that Thursday will be the last trading day of the week, they may not be as aggressive in buying given that they will run lighter shifts for the holiday.

Wednesday Midday Livestock Market Update - Contracts Rally Into Afternoon

GENERAL COMMENTS:

Heading into Wednesday afternoon, the livestock contracts are mostly rallying, and that's helped spark a little generosity from packers in this week's cash cattle market. Packers are getting more aggressive in their quest for cattle and have bumped their bids by $1 in some regions. March corn is up 1 3/4 cents per bushel, and March soybean meal is up $6.80. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 164.44 points, and the NASDAQ is up 125.59 points.

LIVE CATTLE:

The cash cattle market is kicking itself for trading so early in the week. While it was inevitable that packers were going to push prices lower this week, they could have potentially only seen a $1 decrease as opposed to the $2 to $3 regression if they would have waited longer in the week. The tricky thing about marketing fat cattle over the holidays for feedlots is the irregularity of packers' interest and managing their cattle's weights, as substantial interest may not arise until after the New Year. December live cattle are up $0.20 at $135.72, February live cattle are up $0.32 at $137.27 and April live cattle are up $0.62 at $142.07. The market is seeing quite a bit of packer interest as packers are wanting to get cattle bought and head out for the week. Bids of $217 to $218 are now being offered in Nebraska, and bids of $135 are still being offered in Texas.

Boxed beef prices are mixed: choice down $0.14 ($261.25) and select up $0.09 ($250.01) with a movement of 83 loads (47.09 loads of choice, 8.93 loads of select, 7.70 loads of trim and 19.06 loads of ground beef).

FEEDER CATTLE:

The feeder cattle complex would love to be rallying alongside the live cattle and lean hog markets, but upon seeing another day of higher corn prices, the feeder cattle contracts are hesitant. As the market approaches the noon hour, more support is finding its way into the market, but the cautious tone of the complex hasn't changed. January feeders are up $0.77 at $161.62, March feeders are down $0.37 at $161.45, and April feeders are down $0.25 at $165.15. Heading into the afternoon trade, the feeder cattle contracts could still close lower as the market doesn't have anything but technical support to rely on as sale barns aren't trading and the cash cattle market has traded lower this week.

LEAN HOGS:

The lean hog contracts are rallying on strong technical support and on hopeful wishes that Thursday's Hogs and Pigs report does indeed come in bullish. The market has seen the analysts' projections, and with a 3% decline in market hogs, producers are hopeful that cash prices will continue to climb. February lean hogs are up $1.05 at $83.47, April lean hogs are up $1.17 at $86.75 and May lean hogs are up $0.60 at $91.27.

The projected lean hog index for 12/21/2021 is down $0.69 at $72.33, and the actual index for 12/20/2021 is up $0.09 at $73.02. There are no comparisons to be made from Wednesday morning's cash hog report as prices were not disclosed due to confidentiality. But on Thursday morning's National Direct Morning Hog Report, 4,600 head have sold, with the weighted average price being $61.09, ranging from $59 to $64 and the five-day rolling average printing at $59.71. Pork cutouts total 146.24 loads with 129.44 loads of pork cuts and 16.80 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: up $3, $87.91.