GENERAL COMMENTS:
As the livestock futures waltz into Monday's trade, the cattle contracts haven't been met with much support, but the lean hog contracts are eager to trade through this week and get to 2022 as fast as possible. Once the cash cattle market begins to trade, live cattle futures may stand a chance at trading higher as at least steady prices are expected. March corn is up 7 3/4 cents per bushel and March soybean meal is up $5.10. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 227.95 points and NASDAQ is up 178.60 points.
LIVE CATTLE:
Live cattle futures aren't overly enthused to welcome the new week, but if the cash cattle market can summon some interest the complex may stand a chance at trading higher. Last week the cattle that sold early in the week saw the lowest prices the market had to offer and, by Wednesday's arrival, packers were willing to give a little more to secure the cattle they needed. With the market able to push packers into paying higher prices at midweek, the market stands an excellent chance at trading at least steady this week if not $1.00 higher. December live cattle are down $0.07 at $136.97, February live cattle are down $0.42 at $139.20 and April live cattle are down $0.32 at $143.60. New showlists appear to be mixed, higher in Kansas, and Texas, but lower in Nebraska/Colorado.
The bulk of last week's business took place Tuesday and Wednesday with just a handful trade in Nebraska and Iowa on Thursday. Southern live trade had a full range of $133.50 to $136, mostly $135, compared to the previous week's weighted averages; Kansas was generally $2 lower while Texas was roughly $1 lower. Northern dressed business had a full range of $215 to $218, mainly $217 to $218, steady to $1 lower than the prior week's weighted average basis Nebraska.
Last week's negotiated cash cattle trade totaled 36,779 head. Of that 86% (31,632 head) were committed for the nearby delivery, while the remaining 14% (5,147 head) were committed for the deferred delivery.
Boxed beef prices are mixed: choice down $0.12 ($262.82) and select up $0.79 ($253.74) with a movement of 54 loads (35.31 loads of choice, 6.39 loads of select, 5.73 loads of trim and 7.06 loads of ground beef).
FEEDER CATTLE:
With the corn market's jazzy 7-cent rally in its nearby contracts, the feeder cattle complex is desperate to muster up some support, though the sector knows that that's going to be an uphill battle this week. From now until after the New Year, sale barns mostly take the two weeks off to rest up and take a much-needed break. There will be some replacement female sales here and there, but by and large the feeder cattle market won't see a sizeable test of calves/feeders sell until after the New Year. This negatively affects the CME Feeder Cattle Index and leaves the futures complex to fend for itself. And, while the market was able to trade mostly higher last week, doing that two weeks in a row is a tough row to hoe. January feeder cattle are down $0.95 at $162.50, March feeders are down $0.47 at $163.27 and April feeders are down $0.60 at $166.77.
LEAN HOGS:
It's a new week and the lean hog market is rallying as the complex dotes on the latest Quarterly Hogs and Pigs report which was released last Thursday before the markets closed for Christmas. Supply and demand mechanics will always influence in the market, and with the 4% decline in the number of market hogs producers are hopeful higher prices will find their way into the market sooner rather than later. Producers are especially excited for the New Year to pass by as hogs weighing 180 or more were down 6%. If demand holds at least steady, producers are apt to demand more of the market's dollar in the near future. February lean hogs are up $0.55 at $83.77, April lean hogs are up $1.05 at $87.70 and June lean hogs are up $0.75 at $98.05.
The projected CME Lean Hog Index for 12/22/2021 is down $0.66 at $71.67, and the actual index for 12/21/2021 is down $0.69 at $72.33. Hog prices are unavailable due to packer submission problems. Pork cutouts total 232.46 loads with 203.72 loads of pork cuts and 28.74 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: up $0.75, $92.22.
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