Friday Closing Livestock Market Update - Contracts Sharply Lower

GENERAL COMMENTS:

It was a tough close for the livestock complex as traders sent the contracts trailing lower and the cash markets saw little to no interest. Heading into next week's trade, all eyes will be on the contracts to see how much more downside lays within this move. Hog prices closed lower on the Daily Direct Afternoon Hog Report, down $2.43 with a weighted average of $100.14 on 4,367 head. June lean hogs are down $4.60 at $106.375, July corn is steady and July soybean meal is up $2.20. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 939.18 points.

From Friday to Friday livestock futures scored the following changes: April live cattle off $0.55, June live cattle off $5.78, May feeder cattle off $1.60, August feeder cattle off $8.63, June lean hogs off $12.40 and July lean hogs off $10.00.

LIVE CATTLE:

The contracts were left spinning lower Friday and the cash cattle market saw very little interest. June live cattle closed $1.25 lower at $132.65, August live cattle closed $1.07 lower at $135.27 and October live cattle closed $0.57 lower at $142.47. The big question that the market now has to tackle is: What will packers' interest look like next week? With packers having ample supplies of committed cattle prepared for the weeks ahead, and calf-fed fats being readily available, the cash market could become tough at any time now. Nevertheless, feedlots played their cards well this past week as they kept the live market steady at $140 and pushed dressed cattle $2.00 higher to $232 in the North.

Friday's slaughter is estimated at 118,000 head, 1,000 head less than a week ago and 2,000 head more than a year ago. Saturday's slaughter is projected to be around 40,000 head, 23,000 head less than a week ago and 16,000 head less than a year ago. This week's slaughter is estimated at 656,000 head, 9,000 head less than a week ago and 3,000 head more than a year ago.

Boxed beef prices closed lower: choice down $1.82 ($260.78) and select down $3.09 ($247.97) with a movement of 127 loads (58.71 loads of choice, 20.69 loads of select, 36.45 loads of trim and 11.58 loads of ground beef). On average throughout the week choice cuts averaged $263.21 (down $6.37 from last week) and select cuts averaged $252.82 (down $4.31 from last week) and with a total movement of cuts, grinds, and trim totaling 705 loads.

MONDAY'S CASH CATTLE CALL: Steady to $1.00 lower. Next week's cash cattle trade could be tough as packers will use the market's waning boxed beef prices to help them build a case for lower cash prices.

FEEDER CATTLE:

By the day's end, the corn market wasn't as confident as it was earlier in the day, but regardless of how the corn complex rounded out the day, the market's tout of higher prices before the noon hour was enough to send the feeder cattle contracts lower with no hope of trading higher ahead of Friday's close. May feeders closed $1.60 lower at $156.35, August feeders closed $2.12 lower at $168.27 and September feeders closed $1.97 lower at $171.42. With how expensive all inputs are this year, the market veers lower at any sign or hint of higher feed prices. While parts of the U.S. have been getting moisture and grass should be beginning to grow, the market's technical pressure was too much for the complex to bear. At Winter Livestock Auction in Pratt, Kansas, compared to last week, on a run of 4,047 head feeder steers weighing 500 to 975 pounds traded $2.00 to $5.00 lower. Feeder heifers weighing 750 to 950 pounds traded $2.00 to $3.00 lower. Heifers weighing 500 to 750 pounds traded steady to $2.00 higher. There wasn't a good enough test on steer and heifer calves weighing 400 to 500 pounds, but a lower trend was noted. Slaughter cows and bulls sold steady. The CME Feeder Cattle Index for April 28: down $0.72, $155.64.

LEAN HOGS:

It was a gruesome week for the lean hog market. As traders deemed it necessary for the market to correct, priced plummeted day after day and the spread between the nearby contracts, and the deferred months has shrunk considerably. As we suspected the cash hog market didn't see much interest in Friday's market, but pork cutout values did close slightly higher thanks to a modest $4.03 gain in loins. Nevertheless, the big question now is: When will the market find support? The fact remains that market-ready supplies of hogs is thin, but as equally as important is the fact that consumers aren't being aggressive pork buyers. Pork cutouts totaled 285.68 loads with 265.56 loads of pork cuts and 20.12 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: up $0.09, $104.58. Friday's slaughter is estimated at 460,000 head, 3,000 head less than a week ago and 7,000 head less than a year ago. Saturday's slaughter is projected to be around 40,000 head, 74,000 head less than a week ago and 6,000 head less than a year ago. The CME Lean Hog Index for April 27: down $0.53, $101.81.

­­­­­MONDAY'S CASH HOG CALL: Steady to somewhat lower. With the market enduring an aggressive technical reset, the cash market may be hesitant to do too much early in the week.

Friday Midday Livestock Market Summary - Higher Corn Beats Optimistic Hopes Out of the Sector

GENERAL COMMENTS:

It's been a gloomy day for the livestock complex as the contracts stairstep their way to lower thresholds. It's unlikely that the market's predicament will get much better ahead of the day's close as the corn market is keeping with a modest rally which allows no relief to the market's high inputs. July corn is up 7 1/4 cents per bushel and July soybean meal is up $4.20. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 481.39 points.

LIVE CATTLE:

It's one thing to trend lower ahead of the weekend, but it's another to have cattle sold with a considerable amount of time and to see the market nearing long-term support levels ahead of Friday's afternoon. With the technical side of the live cattle market dead set on trading lower, feedlots are worried about what next week could hold. There's no doubt that at some point in the near) future packers are going to turn their backs to the cash cattle market as they work through their captive supplies and committed cattle. Then, the cash market will flop lower, and time will begin to work its way through the well-known dog days of summer. Last week's cash cattle volume was big, and this week's volume is shaping up to be big too, which again makes one wonder just how aggressive packers will be come next week with the board having already sold out for lower price points. June live cattle are down $1.22 at $132.67, August live cattle are down $1.07 at $135.27 and October live cattle are down $0.75 at $142.32. The cash cattle market hasn't seen much interest in Friday's market as trade is essentially done for the week.

Boxed beef prices are lower: choice down $1.11 ($261.49) and select down $2.08 ($248.98) with a movement of 82 loads (33.21 loads of choice, 10.34 loads of select, 32.11 loads of trim and 6.51 loads of ground beef).

FEEDER CATTLE:

It's as if the corn complex whispered, "kiss your hopes for Friday goodbye," as the market adds another $0.05 to $0.07 to its position. Without a minute to spare, the feeder cattle contracts saw the corn market's direction and began to fall lower. Without anything exciting or supportive happening in the live cattle market, the feeder cattle contracts have no other option but to plunder lower as grain prices show them no mercy. May feeders are down $1.37 at $156.57, August feeders are down $2.97 at $167.42 and September feeders are down $2.90 at $170.50.

LEAN HOGS:

Thursday's slightly higher close ended up being a head fake for the lean hog complex, as the market has fallen significantly lower since. June lean hogs are down $4.12 at $106.90, July lean hogs are down $4.22 at $110.37 and August lean hogs are down $3.52 at $110.20. As the market plummets to lows not seen since early February, hog producers are hoping that nearing summer events (cook outs, baseball games, graduation parties, etc.) draws more consumers to the marketplace and helps stabilize the market. It's unlikely that the market finds support ahead of the day's close and will ultimately have to wait until next week to see either how much more downside exists or if traders are starting to feel more comfortable as the basis between the nearby contracts and the deferred months narrows.

The projected lean hog index for April 28 is down $0.04 at $101.77 and the actual index for April 27 is down $0.53 at $101.81. Hog prices on the Daily Direct Morning Hog Report are averaging $99.58, ranging from $96.00 to $111.00 on 3,432 head and a five-day rolling average of $97.69. Pork cutouts total 211.66 loads with 202.58 loads of pork cuts and 9.08 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: down $0.17, $104.32.

Friday Morning Livestock Market Update - Uncertainty Will Dominate Futures Trading

GENERAL COMMENTS:

The bearishness of the Cattle on Feed report last week continues to hang over the market despite the disbelief by many of the placement number. Cash traded at steady to higher this week, which should have provided some support, but futures are more than $4.00 lower than a week ago. Friday is the last day of trading for April live cattle with June taking over as front month and carrying a discount to cash. Traders are cautious over the amount of cattle that may be coming to the market over the next two months. Cutouts were mixed Thursday with choice up $0.69 and select down $1.26. Weekly export sales were nothing the write home about as they were 24% lower than the previous week. Corn futures are higher again overnight, which may limit the upside potential for feeder cattle after the turnaround Thursday.

Hog futures rebounded after three days of liquidation and an oversold market. The turnaround was not supported by either cash or cutouts, which may limit price strength unless cutouts begin to trend higher. Cutouts declined $1.02 Thursday while the National Direct Afternoon Hog report showed a cash decline of $2.16. Weekly export sales were good at 31,500 metric tons (mt) which was 18,600 mt higher than the previous week and may have had some influence on the short-covering Thursday. Price support was broken Thursday, but futures were able to close back above it again. Saturday hog slaughter is estimated at 40,000 head.

	BULL SIDE		BEAR SIDE
1)	Cash cattle were steady to higher again this week, indicating packers need cattle and are aggressive at getting them. Cash trade continues to take place earlier in the week.	1)	Selling pressure on June live cattle does not provide optimism over the outlook of cash. Higher numbers are expected to be available to the market over the next two months.
2)	Chart gaps remain above the market in both live and feeder cattle futures that need to be filled.	2)	The bounce in feeder cattle Thursday may be short lived as new lows were initially established before the turn. Corn prices continue to increase, possibly limiting upside potential.
3)	Hog futures have had their three days of fund liquidation with traders possibly willing to buy back into the market as futures closed above support.	3)	Pork cutouts have not been able to find solid support, which is what traders are looking for. Demand is good but not as strong as hoped, leaving packers less aggressive.
4)	Good export sales indicate international demand remains strong, keeping domestic supply from backing up.	4)	Without support from cash and cutouts yesterday, hog futures may have limited upside potential.

Thursday Closing Livestock Market Update - Lean Hogs and Feeder Cattle Round Out Higher

GENERAL COMMENTS:

It wasn't the day that the live cattle complex had hoped for, but the feeder cattle and lean hog contracts rounded out the day mostly higher. Heading into Friday's market, the cattle complex will be closely watching the corn market. Hog prices closed lower on the Daily Direct Hog Report, down $2.16 with a weighted average of $102.57 on 5,265 head. July corn is up 1 1/4 cents per bushel and July soybean meal is down $10.90. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 614.46 points.

LIVE CATTLE:

It was a day of tough love for the live cattle contracts as traders gave the market no attention and let the contracts drift lower through closing. June live cattle closed $1.12 lower at $133.90, August live cattle closed $0.67 lower at $136.35 and October live cattle closed $0.35 lower at $143.05. With the board's technical down pressure and with the cash cattle market having already seen most of the week's business done with, Thursday came and went without much excitement. Throughout the week, live cattle have traded for mostly $140 (steady with last week's market) and Norther dressed trade has averaged $232 ($2.00 higher than last week's business). Thursday's slaughter is estimated at 123,000 head, 1,000 head more than a week ago and 2,000 head more than a year ago.

Beef net sales of 11,400 mt for 2022 were down 24% from the previous week and 34% from the prior four-week average. The three largest buyers were Japan (4,100 mt), China (1,500 mt) and South Korea (1,300 mt).

Thursday's actual slaughter data shared that compared to last week's data, steers fell 3 pounds to average 909 pounds and heifers fell 5 pounds to average 835 pounds.

Boxed beef prices closed mixed: choice up $0.69 ($262.60) and select down $1.26 ($251.06) with a movement of 168 loads (111.44 loads of choice, 27.95 loads of select, 11.30 loads of trim and 16.98 loads of ground beef).

FRIDAY'S CASH CATTLE CALL: Steady with the week. Given that the week's trend has already been set, any clean-up trade will likely remain steady with the week.

FEEDER CATTLE:

The feeder cattle contracts found some support in Thursday's market after Wednesday's steep drop. Thankfully, the market found support, which came not only technically, but also from the help of active buying in the countryside. Sales remain thin as yearlings have mostly worked their way through the sales already and it's too early for most spring born calves. May feeders closed $0.60 higher at $157.95, August feeders closed $1.45 higher at $170.40 and September feeders closed $0.92 higher at $173.40. Heading into Friday's market, the feeder cattle contracts will be eyeing the corn market to see if it trades higher again, which could keep feeders chopping sideways instead of trying to regain what was lost earlier in the week. The CME Feeder Cattle Index for April 27: up $0.15, $156.36.

LEAN HOGS:

The lean hog complex changed its tone as the day went on and complex walked out of the day fully higher. June lean hogs closed $0.62 higher at $110.97, July lean hogs closed $1.45 higher at $114.60 and August lean hogs closed $1.35 higher at $113.72. Pork cutout values and the cash hog market weren't the reason for the board's higher close as both markets saw a lower conclusion themselves. It wasn't surprising to see cash hog prices wane lower come Thursday as packers had been aggressive earlier in the week pork cutout values have been under pressure consistently. June's close of $110.97 is the lowest the market has traded since the middle of February. Pork cutouts total 248.12 loads with 224.50 loads of pork cuts and 23.62 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: down $1.02, $104.49. Thursday's slaughter is estimated at 476,000 head, 6,000 head less than a week ago and 5,000 head less than a year ago. The CME Lean Hog Index for April 26: down $0.55, $102.34.

Thursday's actual slaughter data shared that compared to last week live hog weights averaged 292 (down 2 pounds from the previous week) and dressed hog weights averaged 218 pounds (down 1 pound from the week before).

Pork net sales of 31,500 mt for 2022 were up noticeably from the previous week and up 19% from the prior four-week average. The three largest buyers were Mexico (21,600 mt), Japan (3,600 mt) and Canada (2,100 mt).

­­­­­FRIDAY'S CASH HOG CALL: Lower. With packers not showing much interest in Thursday's market, it's likely that Friday follows suit and that the cash market trades steady to somewhat lower.

Thursday Midday Livestock Market Update - Not Much Support for the Live Cattle Sector

GENERAL COMMENTS:

It's a mixed day for the livestock complex -- live cattle are trading fully lower, feeders are trading higher and the lean hog complex is mixed. Overall, it's been a tough technical week for the livestock contracts as traders have stepped back and let the contracts traipse lower. July corn is up 3 3/4 cents per bushel and July soybean meal is down $7.70. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 274.16 points.

LIVE CATTLE:

The live cattle market isn't feeling much love from traders Thursday morning as the complex plunders lower yet again. June live cattle are down $1.50 at $133.52, August live cattle are down $1.10 at $135.92 and October live cattle are down $0.75 at $142.65. The cash cattle market is sitting quiet as well, as packers have seemed to have fulfilled most of their needs for the week. Throughout the week, Southern live cattle have traded for $140 and Northern dressed cattle have sold for $232. It's likely that some more clean-up trade happens here and there, but the week's prices are set, and business is all but done with. Thursday's export report didn't send warm gushing feelings throughout the market and so by and large, the live cattle sector is left to trend lower as support has been hard to muser through Thursday's market.

Beef net sales of 11,400 mt for 2022 were down 24% from the previous week and 34% from the prior four-week average. The three largest buyers were Japan (4,100 mt), China (1,500 mt) and South Korea (1,300 mt).

Boxed beef prices are mixed: choice up $0.74 ($262.65) and select down $0.44 ($251.88) with a movement of 96 loads (63.10 loads of choice, 13.14 loads of select, 6.05 loads of trim and 13.57 loads of ground beef).

FEEDER CATTLE:

After Wednesday's sharp selloff, the feeder cattle contracts are trading higher despite the corn market's mild uptick. The feeder cattle complex has been a ping pong ball jump and diving to whatever signal the corn market makes. When corn prices are upward of $7.00 and $8.00 per bushel, they can send the feeder cattle complex spiraling lower, regardless of whatever the live cattle sector is doing. Thankfully, after the bloodbath that the feeder cattle contracts endured earlier this week, the market is seeing modest gains across the board heading into Thursday's afternoon. May feeders are up $0.62 at $157.97, August feeders are up $0.57 at $169.52 and September feeders are up $0.27 at $172.75.

LEAN HOGS:

The lean hog complex is keeping with the tone that the market started the day with -- lower in the nearby contracts, while slightly higher in the deferred. The market cannot seem to attract consumer demand and traders deem that the nearby contracts got overdone which is why the market is now trading consistently lower in the front months. June lean hogs are down $0.77 at $109.62, July lean hogs are down $0.52 at $112.62 and August lean hogs are down $0.45 at $111.92.

Pork net sales of 31,500 mt for 2022 were up noticeably from the previous week and up 19% from the prior four-week average. The three largest buyers were Mexico (21,600 mt), Japan (3,600 mt) and Canada (2,100 mt).

The projected lean hog index for April 27 is down $0.53 at $101.81, and the actual index for April 26 is down $0.55 at $102.34. Hog prices are unavailable on the Daily Direct Morning Hog Report due to confidentiality. However, we can see that the five-day rolling average now sits at $97.33 and that 2,910 head have sold. Pork cutouts total 176.94 loads with 159.45 loads of pork cuts and 17.49 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: down $0.77, $104.74.

Thursday Morning Livestock Market Update - Cattle Futures May Struggle

GENERAL COMMENTS:

Cash cattle traded steady Wednesday with what had already taken place this week as packers were able to increase purchases as feedlots wanted to move cattle. Increasing grain prices provided some pressure. Packers have been purchasing some cattle ahead for the next few weeks in their attempt to not be short bought in the marketplace. It seems supply of market-ready cattle is a little short for the time being. The online cattle exchange showed no cattle sold in Wednesday's auction with bids of $139.50 not enough to generate business. Boxed beef was lower with choice down $2.26 and select down $3.91. Weekly export sales will be released Thursday morning, which could provide some direction. Feeder cattle were under extreme pressure due to corn futures pushing to new highs again. More than 60 tons of ground beef was recalled that had been distributed by Lakeside Refrigerated Services based in New Jersey. This is the third largest recall since the beginning of 2021.

Not much else can be said about hogs other than futures have been unable to find a bottom. Hog supplies are lighter, but consumer demand is lacking, leaving cutouts floundering. The bright spot was that cash was higher for the second consecutive day with the National Direct Afternoon Hog report up $1.70. Cutouts could not find any strength with price down $0.04. the May contract continues to eliminate premium as it moves to converge with cash, taking other contracts down with it. Some spread trading took place as later contracts closed higher. Weekly export sales will be released Thursday and will hopefully be much better than last week.

	BULL SIDE		BEAR SIDE
1)	Cash cattle have not traded as high as desired, but steady to $2.00 higher than last week shows packers need cattle.	1)	Continued escalating corn prices may keep pressure on the cattle complex as the cost of production continues to rise. Cattle will be moved as quickly as possible.
2)	Chart gaps remain above the market that need to be filled. Steady to higher cash may allow this to happen sooner rather than later.	2)	The weakness of boxed beef may indicate consumer demand is slowing as inflation impacts buying power.
3)	There was some strength in later hog contracts Wednesday due to the large discount held to closer months. The spread may continue narrow.	3)	Demand for pork remains somewhat lackluster, leaving cutouts floundering. This keeps pressure on hog futures.
4)	Packers needed hogs and paid more to get them the past two days. Export demand might be improving with potential increasing domestic demand.	4)	June hog futures are testing support established at the beginning of March. A break below that level could trigger further selling.

Wednesday Closing Livestock Market Update - A Spike in Corn Sends Cattle Spiraling Lower

GENERAL COMMENTS:

With the nearby corn contracts printing over $8.00 per bushel, both the live cattle and feeder cattle contracts dipped lower by Wednesday's close. The lean hog complex continues to yearn for strong consumer demand, but the market just isn't seeing the support it needs for it nearby contracts. Hog prices closed higher on the Daily Direct Afternoon Hog Report, up $1.70 with weighted average of $104.73 on 8,930 head. July corn is up 10 3/4 cents per bushel and July soybean meal is up $4.00. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 61.75 points.

LIVE CATTLE:

It was a dismal day for the live cattle complex as the market closed lower and pushed the spot June contract back below the 40-day moving average. June live cattle closed $1.22 lower at $135.02, August live cattle closed $1.25 lower at $137.02 and October live cattle closed $1.20 lower at $143.40. Even though it shouldn't have an effect on the live cattle market, the corn market's $0.10 to $0.12 jump grabbed the live cattle market's attention and helped solidify traders desire to move prices lower. The cash cattle market saw some more trade develop, but prices held steady with the week's trend. It was disappointing to see that some of the cattle that sold in Nebraska weren't committed for delivery until the week of May 16. Nevertheless, throughout the week live cattle have traded for mostly $140 (steady with last week's market) and Norther dressed trade has averaged $232 ($2.00 higher than last week's business). 

Wednesday's slaughter is estimated at 125,000 head, steady with a week ago and 5,000 head more than a year ago.

Boxed beef prices closed lower: choice down $2.26 ($261.91) and select down $3.91 ($252.32) with a movement of 160 loads (96.54 loads of choice, 28.79 loads of select, 14.63 loads of trim and 20.26 loads of ground beef).

THURSDAY'S CASH CATTLE CALL: Steady with the week. Given that cattle have sold in both regions, prices will likely stay steady with the week's trend.

FEEDER CATTLE:

There's nothing that will send the feeder cattle contracts crashing faster than the grim sight of $8.00 per bushel corn. With the May and July 2022 contracts printing over $8.00 per bushel, and the contracts close thereafter being well into the mid-$7.00 range -- feedlots nearly equate the cost of corn to that of what it would be if they were feeding their cattle liquid gold. May feeders closed $3.37 lower at $157.35, August feeders closed $4.20 lower at $168.95 and September feeders closed $3.75 lower at $172.47. The CME Feeder Cattle Index for April 26: down $0.40, $156.12.

LEAN HOGS:

The lean hog complex kept with its technical downward ascend, which was complimented by the pork cutout values lower close, but cash hog prices rounded out the day $1.70 higher on nearly 9,000 head. The nearby lean hog contracts closed lower but from the months of October 2022 through the summer of 2023, the market closed modestly higher. High inflation rates and timid domestic consumers have made traders rethink their position and it's unanimous that they intend to work the market lower. June lean hogs closed $0.82 lower at $110.35, July lean hogs closed $0.45 lower at $113.15 and August lean hogs closed $0.15 lower at $112.37. It's unlikely that much is told in Thursday's export report for the hog sector, but with export business being as dull as it has been, hog producers will continue to watch for it in case something supportive is found. Pork cutouts total 317.26 loads with 287.46 loads of pork cuts and 29.80 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: down $0.04, $105.51. Wednesday's slaughter is estimated at 482,000 head, 1,000 head less than a week ago and steady with a year ago. The CME Lean Hog Index for April 25: up $0.39, $102.89.

­­­­­THURSDAY'S CASH HOG CALL: Lower. Given that packers have been aggressive twice now in this week's market, it's likely that their buying is largely done for the week.

Wednesday Midday Livestock Market Summary - Traders Send Contracts Lower

GENERAL COMMENTS:

As Wednesday nears the noon hour, the livestock complex isn't having the day it hoped for, as traders send the contracts lower. A few more pens of cattle have sold in Nebraska for $230, but unfortunately, they're committed for delivery not until May 16. July corn is up 13 1/2 cents per bushel and July soybean meal is up $8.80. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 418.04 points.

LIVE CATTLE:

The live cattle market hasn't seen the technical support it would have liked to have gotten Wednesday, and with the onset of a lower futures market, packers are getting some cattle bought with time in Nebraska. There's only been a handful trade in eastern Nebraska for $230, but the kicker of the deal is that they're committed for the week of May 16. The rest of the market hasn't seen much interest as packers are sitting quietly through Wednesday's trade and probably focusing on the cattle market conversations happening in the House Wednesday. Southern feedlots are asking $142 for cattle left on showlists, and Northern feedlots are asking $232 plus. June live cattle are down $1.42 at $134.82, August live cattle are down $1.32 at $136.95 and October live cattle are down $1.22 at $143.37. More trade should develop ahead of the week's end.

Boxed beef prices are lower: choice down $1.59 ($262.58) and select down $3.07 ($253.16) with a movement of 93 loads (53.19 loads of choice, 16.92 loads of select, 10.30 loads of trim and 12.83 loads of ground beef).

FEEDER CATTLE:

As the nearby corn contracts trend $0.08 to $0.12 higher, the feeder cattle complex trades sharply lower. May feeders are down $2.00 at $158.82, August feeders are down $3.17 at $169.97 and September feeders are down $2.97 at $173.25. With the live cattle market now trending lower and corn prices showing no signs of switching their direction, it's likely that feeders will face a lower ascending market through Wednesday's trade. High grain prices will continue to be a challenge for cattle buyers, but if the countryside starts to see pastures green up and grass able to grow, then some optimism could bloom.

LEAN HOGS:

The nearby lean hog contracts are struggling with Wednesday's market while the deferred contracts show mild support. Again, it's the fact that the market sits uncomfortably with consumers, as they've been a fickle and unpredictable crowd as of late. A 7% spike in year-over-year inflation has undoubtedly pushed consumers away from retailers' coolers and traders are adjusting their positions to take into account the market's uncertainty. June lean hogs are down $0.80 at $110.37, July lean hogs are down $0.45 at $113.15 and August lean hogs are down $0.22 at $112.30.

The projected lean hog index for April 26 is down $0.55 at $102.34 and the actual index for April 25 is up $0.39 at $102.89. Hog prices are higher on the Daily Direct Morning Hog Report, up $3.59 with a weighted average of $99.33, ranging from $95.00 to $110.00 on 4,150 head and a five-day rolling average of $100.38. Pork cutouts total 162.46 loads with 147.97 loads of pork cuts and 14.49 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: up $3.68, $109.23.

Wednesday Morning Livestock Market Update - House Ag Committee Examines Packing Industry

GENERAL COMMENTS:

Packers again stepped up earlier in the week to take care of business. Cash traded steady to $2.00 higher based on the area of the country and whether it was live or dressed prices. Even though packers had some cattle already forward contracted, they needed more from a current market that has thinner supply. That is expected to change over the next month or two as more market-ready cattle should become available. Boxed beef prices were lower with choice down $2.43 and select down $0.29. There will be a hearing Wednesday by the House Ag Committee examining the price discrepancies, transparency, and alleged unfair practices in cattle markets. The "Big 4" meat packers will be testifying.

Hogs could not find a break Tuesday as futures continued to sink. June futures closed right on the level where a head-and-shoulders formation will be confirmed by breaking lower or traders will view this as a buying opportunity due to price falling the past two days. The premium May futures held to cash has been removed with a vengeance over the past week. Demand is the concern as cutouts just cannot find support with a decline Tuesday of $0.24. The bright spot was that packers stepped up yesterday, needing to purchase hogs to fill slaughter needs. The National Direct Afternoon Hog report showed cash up $3.26.

	BULL SIDE		BEAR SIDE
1)	Steady to higher cash trade for cattle Tuesday sets the stage for the rest of the week. If it is a repeat of last week, further strength is possible if packers need to be more aggressive.	1)	It was a meager inside trading day Tuesday for cattle, even though cash traded steady to higher. Futures may not trade higher until April goes off the board Friday.
2)	The bearish Cattle on Feed report seems to be factored in with April holding in line with cash. June will become front month on Monday and is carrying a discount.	2)	Select cut-outs have been trending lower for the year with price now below what it was a year ago. Consumers seem to be moving more toward cheaper cuts of meat.
3)	The sharp decline in hogs should stimulate some buyer interest as supplies remain tight and are expected to tighten as the year progresses.	3)	June hog futures are right on the neckline of the head and shoulders top. A break below that level could trigger further liquidation.
4)	Hog futures are near technical support from where they rebounded twice in the past. Traders may view this as a buying opportunity.	4)	Pork cutouts have been trending lower, which has increased the concern over consumer demand as inflation impacts consumer spending.

Tuesday Closing Livestock Market Update - Live Cattle Aim to Recover Some of Monday's Losses

GENERAL COMMENTS:

The live cattle market set out to recover some of the territory that Monday threw away, which helped aid the cash cattle market in its quest for higher prices. The feeder cattle market rounded out the day lower as corn prices added input pressure to the market, and the lean hog complex hated seeing lower pork cutout prices again. Hog prices closed higher on the Daily Direct Afternoon Hog Report, up $3.26 with a weighted average of $103.03 on 8,295 head. July corn is up 3 1/2 cents per bushel and July soybean meal is down $8.60. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 809.28 points.

LIVE CATTLE:

The live cattle market gathered itself after Monday's lower demise, regrouped and set out for a bit of a recovery in Tuesday's market. Not only did the board closed higher, but packers began to buy in the cash market and showed that they're still somewhat short bought. June live cattle closed $0.82 higher at $136.25, August live cattle closed $0.95 higher at $138.27 and October live cattle closed $0.52 higher at $144.60. Southern cattle traded for $140 (full steady), and the North saw cattle sell for $232 dressed ($2.00 higher than last week) and $145 to $146 live (steady to $1.00 higher). Not only were regional packers stepping to the plate and buying cattle, but major packers were noted as buying aggressively in the North where supplies are extremely thin. The market expects to see more trade develop in Wednesday's market. 

Tuesday's slaughter is estimated at 125,000 head, 1,000 head more than a week ago and 4,000 head more than a year ago.

Boxed beef prices closed lower: choice down $2.43 ($264.17) and select down $0.29 ($256.23) with a movement of 183 loads (112.55 loads of choice, 24.75 loads of select, 9.33 loads of trim and 36.01 loads of ground beef).

WEDNEDSAY'S CASH CATTLE CALL: Steady with the week's trend. Given that cattle have sold in both regions, it's likely that prices hold steady. The South seems pretty committed to $140, but there is the potential that cattle trade slightly higher in the North where packers are having to work hard to get enough cattle bought.

FEEDER CATTLE:

The feeder cattle market closed lower as the corn market pushed through the day and ended up closing $0.03 to $0.08 higher in its nearby contracts which solidified feeders' lower demise. May feeders closed $0.57 lower at $160.72, August feeders closed $1.35 lower at $173.15 and September feeders closed $1.37 lower at $176.22. It is promising that the live cattle market closed higher and that packers are again pursuing the cash market with aggressive acquisition. If the live cattle market continues to trade this way, feeders may be able to piggyback off their rally and trade slightly higher if corn doesn't pose much more pressure. At Callaway Livestock Center in Kingdom City, Missouri, compared to last week on a run of 2,576 head, the best test was on 400- to 600-pound steer calves that traded $5.00 higher. Feeder heifers weighing 400 to 600 pounds traded mostly steady. The sale noted that overall quality was very good and that many new crop calves are starting to be sold and some unweaned/short weaned less than 30 days but are still selling with good interest. The CME Feeder Cattle Index for April 25: down $0.40, $156.12.

LEAN HOGS:

Packers wanted to buy enough hogs to fill in their gaps, which helped the cash hog market close $3.26 higher, but the board traipsed lower all throughout the day. June lean hogs closed $2.85 lower at $111.17, July lean hogs closed $2.27 lower at $113.60 and August lean hogs closed $2.17 lower at $112.52. The pork cutouts closed disappointing, but not unexpectedly, as consumers continue to show vague interest in the pork market. Nevertheless, the lower waning downward tone that's covered the market like a wet blanket is likely to stay for the time being. Pork cutouts totaled 340.58 loads with 312.78 loads of pork cuts and 27.80 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: down $0.24, $105.55. Tuesday's slaughter is estimated at 480,000 head, 1,000 head more than a week ago and 5,000 head less than a year ago. The CME Lean Hog Index for April 22: up $0.83, $102.50.

WEDNESDAY'S CASH HOG CALL: Steady. It's likely that we'll see packers aggressive at least one more day this week. Even though pork cutouts are trending lower, packers will still need to stay active in the cash market simply because supplies of market ready hogs are thin.

 

Tuesday Midday Livestock Market Update - Cash Cattle Beginning to See Some Interest

GENERAL COMMENTS:

With the slight uptick in live cattle prices, the cash cattle market has begun to see some trade develop -- prices thus far are steady in the South but $2.00 higher in the North. The lean hog and feeder cattle contracts aren't as cheery as their markets continue to trade mostly lower. July corn is up 1 1/4 cents per bushel and July soybean meal is down $7.90. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 457.85 points.

LIVE CATTLE:

The live cattle market is back to trading green after Monday's tough start to the week. June live cattle are up $0.65 at $136.07, August live cattle are up $0.75 at $138.07 and October live cattle are up $0.62 at $144.70. The board's slightly higher trade has helped spur on some developments in the cash cattle market. Southern cattle are beginning to trade for $140 (full steady), and the north is seeing cattle sell for $232 dressed ($2.00 higher than last week) and $145 to $146 live (steady to $1.00 higher). It is being noted that majors are aggressively bidding on cattle which again highlights the fact that packers are indeed short bought. More trade is expected to develop this afternoon and into Wednesday's trade.

Boxed beef prices are mixed: choice down $0.98 ($265.62) and select up $0.77 ($257.29) with a movement of 91 loads (56.26 loads of choice, 11.93 loads of select, 7.43 loads of trim and 15.63 loads of ground beef).

FEEDER CATTLE:

The corn market is trending just slightly above steady, but with how fragile the feeder cattle market is after Monday's blood bath, the corn market's mild gain is enough to ensure that feeders trend lower. May feeders are up $0.10 at $161.42, August feeders are down $0.25 at $174.25 and September feeders are down $0.65 at $176.95. The live cattle market is trending $0.40 to $0.70 higher, and it's looking like the cash cattle market is going to take aim at higher prices again this week, and if the market does indeed trade higher, then the feeder cattle complex may be able to cling to some of its hutzpah.

LEAN HOGS:

The lean hog market continues to bleed lower as, technically, the market is finding little to no support early in the week. By and large, the market is continuing to struggle with is demand. Yes, hog supplies are tight, but American consumers are seeing unpresented inflation which is keeping some from buying as aggressively as they have in the past, and from an export perspective, U.S. pork is a relatively expensive purchase. June lean hogs are down $1.95 at $112.07, July lean hogs are down $1.80 at $114.07 and August lean hogs are down $1.50 at $113.20.

The projected lean hog index is delayed and unavailable at this time.

Hog prices are higher on the Daily Direct Morning Hog Report, up $0.14, with a weighted average of $95.74 ranging from $95.00 to $105.00 on 3,783 head and a five-day rolling average of $100.30. Pork cutouts total 178.98 loads with 169.25 loads of pork cuts and 9.72 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: down $0.21, $105.58.

Tuesday Morning Livestock Market Update - Follow-Through Selling Anticipated

GENERAL COMMENTS:

Both live and feeder cattle futures gapped lower on the open Monday and did not recover. The surprise of placements in the Cattle on Feed report sent the market reeling. April live cattle futures finish trading on Friday and are now holding a discount to cash. However, cash trade has not yet been established for the week. There seems to be some indication of packer interest developing early again this week and potentially at higher prices. However, the weakness of futures and increasing corn prices may have packers attempting to use that as leverage. Boxed beef prices were mixed with choice down $1.31 and select up $1.75. Feeder cattle futures were pressured from live cattle futures as well as higher corn futures. Overnight corn was higher, which may limit any price rally for the time being. The Commitment of Traders report showed funds as net buyers of 7,309 live cattle contracts, bringing their net-long position to 46,807 contracts.

Hogs took a beating with June closing limit down. There was some spillover pressure from cattle, but the bearishness was due to other factors. One was the spread of COVID in China and further lockdowns. China has been a hit-and-miss buyer of pork this year, but this creates some concern over export demand potential. The other is the uncertainty of domestic demand as cutouts continue to fluctuate. Traders have not been confident that cutouts have established support due to price fluctuations. Cutouts fell $5.49 Monday, overriding the gain on the National Direct Afternoon hog report of $0.64. Futures are expected to see some follow-through this morning. The Commitment of Traders report showed funds as net buyers of 1,382 contracts, increasing their net-long positions to 56,190 contracts.

	BULL SIDE		BEAR SIDE
1)	Cattle futures left chart gaps above the market Monday that need to be filled.	1)	The selling of cattle futures eliminated the gains of the past two weeks despite the recent gains in the cash market. Traders anticipate more cattle coming to the market next month.
2)	April live cattle futures now hold a discount to cash with the contract ending trading on Friday. June futures will take over Monday, holding a steeper discount.	2)	Delayed planting and higher corn futures will keep pressure on the cattle complex.
3)	The projection is for hog supplies to tighten. The selloff Monday may be more of a reaction to the pressure on cattle and the news of the spread of COVID in China rather than on fundamentals.	3)	Pork cutouts have yet to establish solid support and cash needs to trend higher. Traders may remain cautious until that is established.
4)	Hog futures are nearing technical support which should increase buying interest for the long term.	4)	Technical traders see the large head and shoulders formation in the June contract that might be confirmed if price falls below the $112 level. This could trigger further technical selling.

Monday Closing Livestock Market Update - Futures Plummet Lower

GENERAL COMMENTS:

It was a tough way to start out the week for the livestock complex as all of the contracts closed sharply lower. The big question laying ahead for the rest of the week to answer is: How will the cash cattle market perform through this? Showlists are still favorable to feedlots, but the board doesn't look like it's got much of a backbone for now anyways. Hog prices closed $0.64 higher on the Daily Direct Afternoon Hog Report, averaging $99.77 on 4,180 head. July corn is up 9 cents per bushel and July soybean meal is down $6.50. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 238.06 points.

LIVE CATTLE:

Even after last week's aggressive cash cattle market, packers showed mild interest in Monday's market, which could mean that they're still in need of cattle. Time is of the essence and feedlots know that regardless of what the board does, if they wish to capitalize on the market at hand, they'll need to act swiftly as calf-fed fats are nearing the market. Showlists this week are lower in Kansas, Nebraska and Colorado but somewhat higher in Texas. The market saw some light trade develop but it certainly wasn't enough to say that any sort of trend was established. Packers are expected to be more aggressive in Tuesday's market and will likely try to use the board's lower tone to get cattle bought cheaper. June live cattle closed $3.00 lower at $135.42, August live cattle closed $3.05 lower at $137.32 and October live cattle closed $2.07 lower at $144.07. 

Monday's slaughter is estimated at 125,000 head, 13,000 head more than a week ago and 7,000 head more than year ago.

Last week's negotiated cash cattle trade totals 110,597 head. Of that 71% (78,267 head) were committed for the nearby delivery, while the remaining 29% (32,330 head) were committed for the deferred delivery.

Boxed beef prices closed mixed: choice down $1.31 ($266.60) and select up $1.75 ($256.62) with a movement of 67 loads (24.85 loads of choice, 19.05 loads of select, 5.03 loads of trim and 17.89 loads of ground beef).

TUESDAY'S CASH CATTLE CALL: $1.00 to $2.00 higher. Last week's market was aggressive in terms of price and volume, but with Mother's Day, Father's Day and Memorial Day all in the near future, packers want to get cattle bought and meat shipped out for sale.

FEEDER CATTLE:

The corn market helped turn the feeder cattle contracts upside down, but largely Monday's market was a day of mass selling, which drove feeders lower. May feeders closed $2.57 lower at $161.30, August feeders closed $2.40 lower at $174.50 and September feeders closed $1.97 lower at $177.60. After an exhilarating week last week, the market will have to determine which fate is in its nearby future -- keeping with last week's momentum or falling lower as Monday pressured. Thankfully, the live cattle complex is still expecting to see strong packer interest in the cash market which could help keep the fundamental side of the market and keep the market's morale from completing melting away. At Oklahoma National Stockyards in Oklahoma City, Oklahoma, compared to last week, a run of 7,000 head, feeder steers and heifers traded unevenly steady, but steer calves traded $10.00 to $12.00 higher and heifer calves sold $2.00 to $5.00 stronger. The CME Feeder Cattle Index for April 22: up $1.31, $156.52.

LEAN HOGS:

The lean hog market plummeted lower throughout Monday's trade as traders deemed the marketplace a dangerous place to be. June lean hogs closed $4.75 lower at $114.02, July lean hogs closed $4.15 lower at $115.87 and August lean hogs closed $3.37 lower at $114.70. The lean hog market didn't need the added pressure as the market was already struggling thanks to hit and miss consumer interest. Nevertheless, this downward technical pressure is likely to keep the market depressed for the next couple days. Pork cutouts total 293.79 loads with 257.50 loads of pork cuts and 36.30 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: down $5.49, $105.79. The belly took the biggest blow as it dropped $24.18 to $169.90, the other cuts fell mildly but the rib did gain $6.25 to $198.56. Monday's slaughter is estimated at 465,000 head, 112,000 head more than a week ago and 15,000 head less than a year ago. The CME Lean Hog Index for April 21: up $0.42, $101.67.

­­­­­TUESDAY'S CASH HOG CALL: Steady to somewhat lower. Packers are still going to want to see some signal from consumers that they do indeed want more pork, but at the same time, the board's downward pressure could give them a chance to buy hogs cheaper.

Monday Midday Livestock Market Summary - Sinking the Livestock Market's Morale

GENERAL COMMENTS:

The market is enduring mass selloffs as traders seem unsure of where the nearby trajectory lays with anything. From the bearish Cattle on Feed report to the COVID concerns in China, Monday's market is terribly unsettled. July corn is up 6 1/4 cents per bushel and July soybean meal is down $4.10. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 245.77 points.

LIVE CATTLE:

From the news of COVID spreading in China to the bearish Cattle on Feed report that ruffled the market's feathers last Friday, the live cattle complex hasn't been greeted with much support come Monday. June live cattle are down $2.97 at $135.42, August live cattle are down $3.05 at $137.32 and October live cattle are down $2.12 at $144.02. Last week's negotiated trade was a big one at 110,597 head. Heading into this week's market, feedlots are again going to try to use their limited supplies to push the market higher again, but if the board continues to wane lower, the triumph of higher prices could be harder to attain. Showlists this week are lower in Kansas, Nebraska and Colorado but somewhat higher in Texas.

Last week's negotiated cash cattle trade totals 110,597 head. Of that 71% (78,267 head) were committed for the nearby delivery, while the remaining 29% (32,330 head) were committed for the deferred delivery.

Boxed beef prices are mixed: choice down $0.97 ($266.94) and select up $1.69 ($256.46) with a movement of 31 loads (11.64 loads of choice, 5.01 loads of select, zero loads of trim and 13.86 loads of ground beef).

FEEDER CATTLE:

The feeder cattle contracts are trending lower like the rest of the marketplace, as the market has no support from the live cattle sector. May feeders are down $3.02 at $160.85, August feeders are down $2.45 at $174.45 and September feeders are down $2.10 at $177.47. Not helping matters is the fact that the corn sector is trading mildly higher, which just adds to the day's lower tone. The one positive thing that's working in feeders' favor right now is the moisture that parts of the West and central Plains are accumulating -- good grass growing weather is nearing.

LEAN HOGS:

The lean hog sector is trending lower and thus far enduring stiffer blows than the cattle sector. June lean hogs are down $4.75 at $114.02, July lean hogs are down $4.67 at $115.35 and August lean hogs are down $4.02 at $114.05. The hog sector desperately needs to see widespread consumer support if the market is going to trade higher this week. Thankfully with baseball and grilling season right around the corner, hot dog demand should see some uptick as Americans head outside.

The projected lean hog index for April 22 is up $0.83 at $102.50 and the actual index for April 21 is up $0.42 at $101.67. Hog prices are lower on the Daily Direct Hog Report, down $2.63 with a weighted average of $95.60 ranging from $95.00 to $107.00 on 2,810 head and a five-day rolling average of $100.86. Pork cutouts 147.84 loads with 123.03 loads of pork cuts and 24.880 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: down $2.32, $108.96.

Monday Morning Livestock Market Update - Volatile, Uncertain Start to Week

GENERAL COMMENTS:

Live cattle prices dipped Friday as traders positioned themselves ahead of USDA's Cattle on Feed report. The numbers on the report suggest further liquidation may likely unfold Monday. The only category on the report that was near expectations was marketings at 98% compared to the estimate of 98.2%. The other categories were bearish. On feed numbers were 102% compared the estimate of 100.4%. This is the highest number of cattle on feed since the series began in 1996. However, placements during the month really took the cake at 100% versus the average trade estimate of 92.2%. That is the most bearish number on the report, which has generated questions of the accuracy of the report. However, one could question the accuracy of the estimates as well. There are always two sides to every coin. In any case, traders have these numbers to trade today. Total beef inventory in March increased 11% according to the Cold Storage report. Boxed beef on Friday closed lower. Choice was down $2.26 with select down $0.96. Lower corn futures last week should provide some support for feeder cattle futures, but that will depend on the direction of live cattle futures.

Liquidation in the hog complex that gripped the market for three days, finally ran its course Friday with triple-digit rebounds in contracts through August. Cash fell apart Friday with the National Direct Afternoon report reporting a decline of $6.91. Some support stemmed from the increase of $1.08 in pork cutouts. For futures to trend higher, cutouts will need to consistently post gains. Total pork in cold storage for the month of March was up 8% compared to the previous year with belly supply up 60% from a year ago. Packers are expected to be more aggressive to begin the week.

	BULL SIDE		BEAR SIDE
1)	Many times, the cattle market will trade the opposite direction of what the Cattle on Feed report would indicate. Questions surrounding the accuracy of placements in March may leave the market mixed or possibly higher.	1)	The high placements during March were a complete surprise and might put significant pressure on futures.
2)	Feedlots hope for higher cash again and may hold out as they see a strong slaughter pace and lower corn prices.	2)	Higher on feed numbers will assure sufficient cattle supplies for demand over the next months.
3)	Now that the recent liquidation phase seems to have run its course, traders might buy back into the market.	3)	Traders need to see more evidence of consistent demand through further strength of cutouts before there might be a change of trend.
4)	The supply of hogs remains tight, which would cause packers to step up to the plate early this week to obtain the hogs they need to process.	4)	May hog futures continue to hold a substantial premium to cash. This may keep pressure on the market as cash and futures will converge in in three weeks.

Friday Closing Livestock Market Update - Cattle Slide Lower

GENERAL COMMENTS:

Friday came and went, and though the cattle contracts would have liked to round out the week on a higher note, no one is complaining after the week the market just had. The lean hog complex closed higher in its nearby contracts, but what was even more impressive is the movement that pork cutouts had. Hog prices closed lower on the Daily Direct Afternoon Hog Report, down $6.91 with a weighted average of $99.13 on 3,197 head. July corn is down 6 1/4 cents per bushel and July soybean meal is down $11.80. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 981.36 points.

From Friday to Friday, livestock futures scored the following changes: April live cattle up $1.78, June live cattle up $2, April feeder cattle down $0.25, May feeder cattle up $2.10, June lean hogs up $0.30, July lean hogs up $0.60.

Friday's Cold Storage report shared that total red meat supplies in freezers were up 1% from the previous month and up 9% from last year. Total pounds of beef in freezers were up 1% from the previous month and up 11% from last year. Frozen pork supplies were up 2% from the previous month and up 8% from last year. Stocks of pork bellies were up 13% from last month and up 60% from last year. Total frozen poultry supplies were up 1% from the previous month but down 1% from a year ago. Total stocks of chicken were down 1% from the previous month but up 5% from last year.

LIVE CATTLE:

It was a tremendous week for the live cattle complex -- the futures market rallied higher and supported the cash market, the June contract rounded out the week above the 100-day moving average, and cash cattle traded anywhere from $1-$4 stronger. This week's rally could be described as the perfect storm for feedlots. Having thin supplies of market-ready cattle, feedlots were able to capitalize on the fact that packers were short-bought heading into the week, which drove prices higher. We know that in the weeks ahead, prices will soften. But it's now a question of when and by how much. If slaughter speeds remain aggressive, then supplies of market-ready cattle won't become problematic until sometime in May. In May, calf-fed fats will be ready, and within a week or two, packers could begin to pull those cattle early to avoid paying higher cash prices. Nevertheless, this week's rally was one that feedlots can feel proud of, and it again shows the power of bidding by small regional packers and the importance of the board and cash market working side by side. April live cattle closed $1.65 lower at $142.45, June live cattle closed $1.47 lower at $138.42, and August live cattle closed $1.20 lower at $140.37.

The week's cash cattle trade developed early, as packers were short-bought and desperately needed cattle. Beginning on Tuesday, Southern live cattle sold for $139 to $141, but mostly at $140, which is $1 stronger than last week. Northern dressed deal ranged from $228 to $236, but mostly at $230, which is $4 higher.

Friday's slaughter is estimated at 119,000 head -- 5,000 head more than a week and year ago. Saturday's slaughter is estimated at 63,000 head -- 41,000 head more than a week ago and 8,000 head less than a year ago. This week's slaughter is estimated at 665,000 head -- 31,000 head more than a week ago and steady with a year ago.

Boxed beef prices closed lower: choice down $2.26 ($267.91) and select down $0.91 ($254.77) with a movement of 95 loads (57.74 loads of choice, 15.46 loads of select, 11.47 loads of trim and 10.39 loads of ground beef).

MONDAY'S CASH CATTLE CALL: Higher. This week's volume was significant in its size, but for packers to meet all their commitments ahead of prime grilling months, they'll need to continue to buy and process cattle.

FEEDER CATTLE:

The feeder cattle contracts coasted through Friday's close, keeping as much of the complex elevated as possible ahead of the weekend. With the live cattle complex rounding out the week softer, the feeder cattle market was on its own ahead of the day's close. Thankfully, with parts of the U.S. getting some much-needed moisture, buyers have been seeking out quality feeders, as it's looking like there could be a hole in the market in September/October 2022. Cost of gains and limited feed continue to be an issue, but that's an issue that cattlemen realize isn't going away anytime soon. April feeders closed $0.50 lower at $157.95, May feeders closed $0.97 lower at $163.87 and August feeders closed $0.45 higher at $176.90. Oklahoma Weekly Cattle Auction Summary shared that compared to last week throughout the state, feeder steers traded steady to $3 higher, and feeder heifers traded $1 to $4 higher. Stocker steers and steer calves traded steady to $3 higher, and stocker heifers and heifer calves sold $2 to $4 higher. The CME feeder cattle index 4/21/2022: up $1.31, $155.21.

LEAN HOGS:

The lean hog complex added some "pizzaz" to the market ahead of Friday's close to keep us all on our toes. First, the nearby contracts closed higher after a tough downward push earlier in the week. Second, pork cutouts pushed a whopping 336.20 loads out the door by Friday afternoon's report, and pork cutout prices closed over $1 higher. When it comes to next week, eyes will be watching the hog market carefully, trying to gauge where things are headed next. The fact remains that market-ready supplies of hogs are thin, and pork packer margins have begun to rebound. Still, consumer demand remains questionable. June lean hogs closed $1.60 higher at $118.77, July lean hogs closed $1.40 higher at $120.02 and August lean hogs closed $1.05 higher at $118.07. Pork cutouts total 336.20 loads with 308.64 loads of pork cuts and 27.56 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: up $1.08, $111.28. The CME lean hog index 4/20/2022: up $0.32, $101.25.

Friday's slaughter is estimated at 463,000 head -- 28,000 head more than a week ago and 12,000 head less than a year ago. Saturday's kill is projected to be around 114,000 head -- 106,000 head more than a week ago and 53,000 head more than a year ago.

MONDAY'S CASH HOG CALL: Higher. Given that prices were down over $6 in Friday's cash hog market, I suspect that prices will be more favorable come Monday, but that significant trade volumes will wait until later in the week to develop.

Friday Midday Livestock Market Summary - Live Cattle Draw Back Ahead of USDA Cattle on Feed Report

GENERAL COMMENTS:

The cattle contracts have seen a shift from their aggressive rally early in the week to now seeing the live cattle contracts trade slightly lower and the feeder cattle contracts keeping slightly above steady. Meanwhile, the lean hog contracts are now trading higher, and the pork cutout report shared a large movement of 244.64 on the morning report. July corn is down 8 1/2 cents per bushel, and July soybean meal is down $9.30. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 561.18 points.

LIVE CATTLE:

The live cattle complex has drawn back from its aggressive rally seen earlier in the week to trade timidly thus far Friday. The market's timid nature could be a simple pause in time as traders want to see what next week's market shakes out to be before advancing any higher, or the complex could be drawing back because of this afternoon's April 1 Cattle on Feed report. Either way, thus far, prices are simply chopping sideways at the high end of Thursday's trade, which doesn't send panicking fears throughout the market. April live cattle are down $1.10 at $143, June live cattle are down $0.72 at $139.17, and August live cattle are down $0.32 at $141.25. The cash cattle market hasn't seen any more trade develop, and it's likely that the bulk of this week's business is done.

The week's cash cattle trade developed early, as packers were short bought and desperately needed cattle. Beginning on Tuesday, Southern live cattle sold for $139 to $141, but mostly at $140, which is $1 stronger than last week. Northern dressed deal ranged from $228 to $236, but mostly at $230, which is $4 higher.

Boxed beef prices are lower: choice down $0.38 ($269.79) and select down $0.65 ($255.03) with a movement of 56 loads (35.68 loads of choice, 7.18 loads of select, 5.82 loads of trim and 7.34 loads of ground beef).

FEEDER CATTLE:

The feeder cattle contracts are clinging to whatever support they can find in Friday's market, and largely, other than in the April and May 2022 contracts, the complex is still trading higher. Thankfully for feeder's sake, the corn market isn't posing any pressures today as it trades lower, but the live cattle market has seemed to exhaust its run, and without the live cattle contracts trading higher, feeders are left to fend through Friday's trade on their own. April feeders are down $0.05 at $158.40, May feeders are down $0.60 at $164.25, and August feeders are up $1.50 at $177.95.

LEAN HOGS:

It's been a perplexing week for the lean hog complex. Early in the week, the complex shot higher only to be sent back lower later in the week. Pork cutout values have seen hit-or-miss demand, but in looking at Friday's morning report -- 244.64 loads is a BIG DEAL! Nevertheless, it's safe to say that there's a lingering tone of the unknown throughout the hog complex. The sector is trading higher in its nearby contracts, but slightly lower in its deferred months heading into Friday afternoon. The front months are most likely trading with confidence because even though pork cutout values are dancing back and forth as of late, the market is still high compared to historical industry standards. June lean hog are up $1.40 at $118.55, July lean hogs are up $1.25 at $119.87 and August lean hogs are up $).97 at $118.

The projected lean hog index for 4/21/2022 is up $0.42 at $101.67, and the actual index for 4/20/2022 is up $0.32 at $101.25. Hog prices are lower on the Daily Direct Hog Report, down $7.18 with a weighted average of $98.23, ranging from $95 to $105 on 2,840 head and a five-day rolling average of $100.70. Pork cutouts total 244.64 loads with 228.66 loads of pork cuts and 15.98 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: up $2, $112.20.

Friday Morning Dairy Market Update - Traders Anticipate Cattle on Feed Report

GENERAL COMMENTS:

The exuberance seen in cattle futures may have run its course for the week. Cash price will not change from the earlier pattern this week. Traders will be anticipating the Cattle on Feed report that will be released after the close. Estimates for On Feed is 100.4% compared to a year ago. Placements at 92.2%. Marketings are estimated at 98.2%. Where the actual numbers fall in relation with the estimates will determine futures direction on Monday. Boxed beef was mixed yesterday with choice up $1.35 and select down $0.85. Weekly exports sales were not very exciting at 15,000 mt. This was down 17% from the previous week. Feeder cattle found strong support from the significant weakness of corn futures. Further weakness of corn is seen overnight.

Hogs did not find any support from lower grain prices, but continued liquidation was seen as traders need further evidence of strong demand and higher trending cutouts. Cutouts did increase $1.71 Thursday, but prices need to continue to trend higher. Cash jumped $4.06 on the National Direct Afternoon Hog report. However, export sales were a marketing-year low totaling 12,900 mt. Traders need confirmation that both cash and cutouts will establish a consistent trend higher. Saturday slaughter is estimated at 76,000 head.

	BULL SIDE		BEAR SIDE
1)	Strong cash this week with keep feedlots looking for more next week. Lower corn will give confidence to hold for higher prices again.	1)	Low weekly export sales and the upcoming Cattle on Feed report may trigger some liquidation as traders position themselves for the report and the weekend.
2)	A bullish Cattle on Feed report could push live cattle to retest the highs from mid-February.	2)	Cattle futures now carry a premium to cash with one week of trading remaining for the April contract. Packers may not be as aggressive next week.
3)	The liquidation of futures in hogs might have run its course as both cash and cutouts showed strength Thursday.	3)	Poor weekly export sales may back up pork into the domestic market if domestic demand does not improve.
4)	Hog weights are declining seasonally possibly reducing the amount of pork available to the market as it moves to a stronger demand period of the year.	4)	Futures may continue to reduce the premium they carry to cash, resulting in further pressure on the May contract.

Thursday Closing Livestock Market Update - Cattle Keep Rallying

GENERAL COMMENTS:

It was another rallying day for the cattle contracts, as the market's support has rocketed both live cattle and feeder cattle prices higher. Meanwhile, the lean hog complex saw a higher pork cutout close and higher cash prices, but traders remained leery. Hog prices closed higher on the Daily Direct Afternoon Hog Report, up $4.06 with a weighted average of $106.04 on 11,589 head. May corn is down 16 1/2 cents per bushel, and July soybean meal is down $2.40. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 368.03 points.

LIVE CATTLE:

The live cattle market kept with its ambitious pace throughout Thursday's trade and led the market to a fully higher close by the day's end. April live cattle closed $1.02 higher at $144.10, June live cattle closed $1.27 higher at $139.90, and August live cattle closed $1.42 higher at $141.57. The rally that the live cattle market has undergone this past week has taken the market by storm, and it's so refreshing to see the board and the cash market working side by side to support higher prices. The cash cattle market saw a little more trade in the North at $230 ($4 higher than a week ago and steady with the week's trend). Largely, it's looking like the week's trade is done with other than some clean-up trade that will happen in drabs here and there. Thursday's slaughter is estimated at 122,000 head -- 1,000 head less than a week ago and 3,000 head more than a year ago. When looking to Friday's market, stay tuned to the latest USDA Cattle on Feed report, as placements remain a wild card.

Active business took place on Tuesday, and a light trade was reported on Wednesday with Southern live deals marked at $139 to $141, mostly $140, $1 higher than last week's weighted averages. Northern dressed sales took place at $228 to $236, mostly $230, $4 higher than last week's weighted average basis Nebraska. Colorado reported transactions at $145, $3 higher than last week's weighted average.

Beef net sales of 15,000 metric tons (mt) for 2022 were down 13% from the previous week and 27% from the prior four-week average. The three largest buyers were Japan (4,600 mt), South Korea (4,100 mt) and China (2,500 mt).

Thursday's actual slaughter data shared that for the week ended April 9, 2022, steers averaged 912 pounds (up 3 pounds from the previous week), and heifers averaged 840 pounds (down 2 pounds from the previous week).

Boxed beef prices closed mixed: choice up $1.35 ($270.17) and select down $0.85 ($255.68) with a movement of 104 loads (65.63 loads of choice, 22.11 loads of select, zero loads of trim and 16.44 loads of ground beef).

FRIDAY'S CASH CATTLE CALL: Steady with the week's trend. It's looking like the bulk of this week's business is done with.

FEEDER CATTLE:

The feeder cattle contracts had an excellent day, as the live cattle complex continues to push higher into the latter half of the week and the corn market posed no threat, so the feeder cattle complex kept chipping away at higher prices. It was an especially good day for the spot May contracts, which closed about the market's 40-day moving average of $164.60 -- which the market has been trading below since late February. May feeders closed $2.37 higher at $164.85, August feeders closed $2.97 higher at $176.45 and September feeders closed $2.77 higher at $179.27. The CME feeder cattle index 4/20/2022: up $0.17, $154.66.

LEAN HOGS:

Thursday was another day of lower trading for the lean hog complex. The market saw phenomenal interest in the cash hog market, and pork cutout values did close higher, but the board isn't comfortable with consumer interest right now. It's seeming as though traders deem a correction necessary for the complex, and so, lower the markets go. June lean hogs closed $1.57 lower at $117.17, July lean hogs closed $1.42 lower at $118.62, and August lean hogs closed $1.37 lower at $117.02. Pork cutouts total 183.72 loads with 162.38 loads of pork cuts and 21.34 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: up $1.71, $110.20. Thursday's slaughter is estimated at 482,000 head -- 4,000 head more than a week ago and 1,000 head less than a year ago. The CME lean hog index 4/19/2022: up $0.43, $100.93.

Pork net sales of 12,900 mt for 20222 -- a marketing-year low -- were down 46% from the previous week and 55% from the prior four-week average. The three largest buyers were Mexico (4,700 mt), South Korea (2,800 mt) and Philippines (1,300 mt).

Thursday's actual slaughter data shared that for the week ending 4/9/2022 live hogs averaged 294 pounds, and dressed hogs averaged 219 pounds -- both steady with the week before.

FRIDAY'S CASH HOG CALL: Lower. Given that it's Friday, I'd suspect that packers have their needs met for the time being and will wait until next week to buy many more hogs.

Thursday Midday Livestock Market Summary - Cattle Continue to Rally

GENERAL COMMENTS:

The cattle contracts are having another stellar day as both the live cattle and feeder cattle contracts use Thursday as an opportunity to trend higher. Meanwhile, the lean hog complex is feeling pressured to trade lower as consumer interest is hit and miss. May corn is down 13 1/2 cents per bushel and July soybean meal is down $2.40. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 36.09 points.

LIVE CATTLE:

The live cattle complex is striding out and touching price points that haven't been seen since late February. The market is relishing in the fact that market-ready fat cattle supplies are tight and that has pushed packers into paying more for cattle this week, and sent the board launching higher. April live cattle are up $0.72 at $143.80, June live cattle are up $0.87 at $139.50 and August live cattle are up $0.90 at $141.05. The market hasn't seen any more cash cattle trade develop, and it's likely that the bulk of the week's trade is done with. Asking prices for cattle left on showlists are around $142 to $143 in the South and $236-plus in the North.

This week Southern live deals have been marked at $139 to $141, mostly $140, $1 higher. Northern dressed cattle have sold from $230 to $232, mostly $230, $4 higher. Some sales were also reported in parts of Colorado at $144, $2 higher.

Beef net sales of 15,000 mt for 2022 were down 13% from the previous week and 27% from the prior four-week average. The three largest buyers were Japan (4,600 mt), South Korea (4,100 mt) and China (2,500 mt).

Boxed beef prices are mixed: choice up $0.94 ($269.76) and select down $0.29 ($256.24) with a movement of 54 loads (30.34 loads of choice, 10.89 loads of select, zero loads of trim and 12.30 loads of ground beef).

FEEDER CATTLE:

The feeder cattle contracts are feeling like the perfect storm has overcome its market this week. Grain prices continue to trend lower as the live cattle market remains strong, which consequently is opening the door for feeders to trade higher. Drought and worries about what cost of gains are continues to be an issue for the market, but that doesn't mean the complex can take a bone when it's given one. April feeders are up $0.40 at $157.90, May feeders are up $1.40 at $163.87 and August feeders are up $1.82 at $175.30. Sales continue to be light this week as largely both calves and feeders have already worked their way through this winter/spring market.

LEAN HOGS:

Thursday is turning out to be the third consecutive day of lower trade for the lean hog complex as the market struggles to entice traders to trade confidently within its realm. June lean hogs are down $2.02 at $116.70, July lean hogs are down $2.00 at $118.05 and August lean hogs are down $1.77 at $116.62. At this point, the market doesn't expect much export support, but it never "feels" good to see a marketing-year low reported. While the lean hog complex is getting beat up from the board, the morning's cash hog market is off to a good start. Pork demand may not be as lively as packers would like to see it, but with the Avian bird flu sending eggs and poultry products higher, consumers could begin to take a harder look at their other options, which are primarily pork and beef.

Pork net sales of 12,900 mt for 20222 -- a marketing-year low -- were down 46% from the previous week and 55% from the prior four-week average. The three largest buyers were Mexico (4,700 mt), South Korea (2,800 mt) and Philippines (1,300 mt).

The projected lean hog index for April 20 is up $0.32 at $101.25 and the actual index for 4/19/2022 is up $0.43 at $100.93. Hog prices are higher on the Daily Direct Hog Report, up $6.39 with a weighted average of $105.41, ranging from $94.00 to $111.50 on 8,257 head and a five-day rolling average of $101.03. Pork cutouts total 119.06 loads with 102.47 loads of pork cuts and 16.59 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: up $2.97, $111.46.