GENERAL COMMENTS:
Mixed closes among the livestock futures contracts Thursday suggest a market segment that's not willing to stick its neck out too far in either direction before the feed grains markets have a chance to react to fresh USDA supply and demand predictions on Friday. Cash cattle transactions were limited Thursday because the bulk of the business had been transacted earlier in the week, fully steady with last week's weighted average prices. On the National Direct Afternoon Hog Report, negotiated prices were down $0.72 to a weighted average price of $100.30 on 7,350 head, and the 5-day rolling average was $100.83 per cwt. May corn moved up 1 1/4 cents per bushel to $7.57 3/4 and May soybean meal was down $1.60 per ton to $460.20. The Dow Jones Industrial Average was up 87.92 points and the NASDAQ was up 32.93 points.
LIVE CATTLE:
On Thursday, live cattle futures recovered off Wednesday's lows, but not in any confident or emphatic way. April live cattle futures closed $0.30 higher at $138.00, the June contract closed $0.125 lower at $134.10, and the August closed $0.40 higher at $136.10. Cash cattle trade unusually took place mostly during the first three days of this week, at prices that were steady compared to the past two weeks: generally $138 (live basis) in the South and $222 (dressed basis) in the North. A few more deals aren't out of the question before the week is done and asking prices for cattle left on showlists are around $139-plus in the South and $224-plus in the North.
Thursday's slaughter was seen at 124,000 head, which is 3,000 head more than a week ago and 4,000 more than a year ago.
Boxed beef prices were mixed Friday: choice down $0.04 ($271.00) and select up $0.17 ($261.22) with a movement of 94 loads (68.77 loads of choice, 13.81 loads of select, 0 loads of trim and 11.58 loads of ground beef).
FRIDAY'S CASH CATTLE CALL: On an unusual schedule this week, there may not be much business left to transact on Friday, but prices will reference the steady trade already noted at $138 (live) in the South and $222 (dressed) in the North.
FEEDER CATTLE:
Nearby feeder cattle contracts continued their slide on Thursday, but some of the deferred contracts made a correction to previous overzealous losses. The April feeder cattle contract closed down $0.70 at $156.40, the May contract closed down $0.475 at $159.475, and farther out, the October contract closed up $1.75 at $179.325. It shouldn't come as a surprise, but drought conditions worsened again across the West this week, according to the latest U.S. Drought Monitor, and the recent storms across the country have only pecked away at the edges of abnormally dry or moderately droughty range. April showers bring May flowers (and grass), so grass calf buyers will be watching the forecast to calibrate their optimism for the coming months, even if corn prices get another boost on Friday.
LEAN HOGS:
Wholesale pork prices surged Thursday, led by volatile seasonal gains in hams and bellies, but the packers haven't been passing that bullishness along, and actual hog prices continue to slip. In the futures markets, the April lean hog futures contract closed up $0.30 at $99.05; the May closed down $0.20 at $108.325; and the June closed down $0.55 at $114.15. The upcoming Easter holiday season will be sending grocery shoppers looking for hams. Thursday afternoon pork cut-out report showed ham values surging to $82.32, and the overall carcass value down $1.26 to $103.11. There were 251.97 total loads (201.76 loads of cuts and 50.21 loads of trim). The CME Lean Hog Index for 4/5: down $0.58, $101.08, and the projected index for 4/6 is down $0.40, $100.68.
FRIDAY'S CASH HOG CALL: Steady. Negotiated swine prices have been slipping day by day amid packers' uncertainty, but given the acknowledged balance of supplies, they must find a bottom here somewhere to pause.
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