GENERAL COMMENTS:
The livestock complex is a mixed bag to start the week, as the feeder cattle and lean hog contracts are seeing pushback, feeders wrestle with Friday's lousy Cattle on Feed report and hogs look for continued demand. Meanwhile, the live cattle market is trending higher as boxed beef prices are stronger to start the day off and Friday's Cattle Inventory Report was supportive. December corn is up 11 1/4 cents per bushel and December soybean meal is up $15.80. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 26.01 points.
LIVE CATTLE:
The live cattle contracts head-faked Monday's market to start. First, lower red print was seen throughout the market, but as time has progressed and the market nears the noon hour, the market is trending mildly higher. August live cattle are up $0.22 at $137.60, October live cattle are up $0.30 at $143.30 and December live cattle are up $0.27 at $148.45. The live cattle market was pleased to see Friday's Cattle Inventory report as well as the aggressive marketings throughout June. While the placement data was troublesome for the market, if packers continue to move cattle as vigorously as they have through recent months through the plants, then the placements will soon be worked through, and thinner supplies are still unavoidable for late 2022 and through 2023. Last week's negotiated cash cattle market was disappointing with only 69,000 head trading. As packers continue to master the markets with their ability to manage their needs of cattle through alternative marketing arrangements, forward contracts and formula deals, the cash cattle market is paying the cost.
Throughout last week, Southern live deals were marked at mostly $136, roughly $0.50 lower than last week's weighted averages. While Northern dressed business came in at mostly $227, $2 lower than last week's weighted average basis Nebraska.
Last week's negotiated cash cattle trade totaled 69,032 head. Of that 65% (45,034 head) were committed for the nearby delivery, while the remaining 35% (23,998 head) were committed for the deferred delivery.
Boxed beef prices are higher: choice up $1.38 ($268.50) and select up $1.02 ($243.52) with a movement of 28 loads (18.94 loads of choice, 7.20 loads of select, zero loads of trim and 2.10 loads of ground beef).
FEEDER CATTLE:
With the ongoing, unsettled war in Ukraine, the grain market hasn't gotten any easier to pinpoint amid back-and-forth news stories and ongoing land blasts. On Friday, the world was hopeful that Ukraine was going to be able to export some of their grain, but those dreams were short-lived as Russia attacked the port of Odesa on Saturday. Nevertheless, our corn market has found modest support in Monday's market which has pressured the feeder cattle contract to move lower in combination of Friday's bearish Cattle on Feed report. We assumed that Friday's bearish COF report would steal the early part of the week's trade, but long-term speaking, one still can't deny the supportive nature of the market's July Cattle Inventory report. August feeders are down $1.72 at $179.82, September feeders are down $1.25 at $183.22 and October feeders are down $1.15 at $185.85.
LEAN HOGS:
The lean hog market has taken a turn for lower prices in its nearby contracts as most of the livestock complex battles pressure. The deferred contracts haven't been pressured with the same doggish energy that's seemed to have taken ahold of the livestock complex, but if pork demand can stay supported through closing, then the market may stand a chance at trading higher come Tuesday especially if packers start to fan interest toward the cash market. August lean hogs are down $2.00 at $116.70, October lean hogs are down $1.50 at $94.80 and December lean hogs are down $0.50 at $86.02.
The projected lean hog index for July 22 is up $0.92 at $119.08 and the actual index for July 21 is up $1.12 at $118.16. Hog prices are lower on the Daily Direct Morning Hog Report, down $3.67 with a weighted average of $114.32, ranging from $113.50 to $126.00 on 3,304 head and a five-day rolling average of $120.03. Pork cutouts total 147.09 loads with 117.89 loads of pork cuts and 29.20 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: up $1.99, $127.96.
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