Monday Closing Livestock Market Update - High Grain Prices Kept Cattle Lower

GENERAL COMMENTS

The cattle contracts weren't pleased to see the grain market's momentum throughout Monday's trade, but it didn't seem to affect the lean hog complex. Traders are looking for substantial fundamental support before they'll comfortably push either of the cattle contracts higher. Hog prices closed lower on the Daily Direct Morning Hog Report, down $2.20 with a weighted average of $88.34 on 4,522 head. December corn is up 10 3/4 cents per bushel and December soybean meal is up $2.70. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 128.85 points.

LIVE CATTLE:

The live cattle market gapped lower at the day's start and was never able to recover ahead of closing. The market was largely pushed lower as the grain sector sported an aggressive rally all throughout the day. December live cattle closed $0.52 lower at $152.47, February live cattle closed $0.50 lower at $155.82 and April live cattle closed $0.15 lower at $159.07. The market needs to see follow-through fundamental support before it will trade higher technically, but thankfully that support should come later in the week. The cash cattle market is expected to trade higher again this week, and although asking prices are still not established, it wouldn't be surprising to see the market jump $1 to $2 higher yet again. New showlists appear to be mixed, higher in Texas, somewhat higher in Nebraska/Colorado, but lower in Kansas. 

Monday's slaughter is estimated at 128,000 head -- 2,000 head more than a week ago and 7,000 head more than a year ago.

Boxed beef prices closed mixed: Choice was up $0.39 ($263.65) and select down $0.03 ($234.46) with a movement of 96 loads (61.58 loads of choice, 25.48 loads of select, zero loads of trim and 9.39 loads of ground beef).

TUESDAY'S CATTLE CALL: Higher. It's unlikely that cattle will begin to trade before Thursday as feedlots want to push the cash cattle market higher while the opportunity presents itself.

FEEDER CATTLE:

The nearby feeder cattle contracts closed lower but the deferred contracts of 2023 (August through October) closed mildly higher. It wasn't a surprise that the feeder contracts closed lower as the market had little support from anywhere as the live cattle contracts closed lower, too, and the corn market sported a $0.09 to $0.10 rally through closing. November feeders closed $0.25 lower at $177.62, January feeders closed $0.92 lower at $179.45 and March feeders closed $1 lower at $181.57. Although it's a long way away and much can happen in the matter between now and then, it is interesting to see that the deferred feeder cattle contracts of 2023 (August through October) all closed above $200 -- hopefully the market is able to capture those times in due time. At Joplin Regional Stockyards in Carthage, Missouri, compared to last week and at the sale's midsession point, feeder steers and heifers were both trading $2 to $3 higher. Feeder cattle supply over 600 pounds was 49%. The CME feeder cattle index for Oct. 28: up $1.63, at $177.48.

LEAN HOGS:

The lean hog complex closed mostly higher even though the market did see some minor pushback in its nearby contracts. December lean hogs closed $1.17 lower at $84.92, February lean hogs closed $0.40 lower at $88.45 and April lean hogs closed $0.90 higher at $93.60. And while the market did have to stomach that pork cutout values ended the day lower, it was encouraging that Monday's slaughter was aggressive as it was and that the ham and rib both closed higher. The lower close in pork cutout values again stems from the fact that the belly took a nosedive and dropped $23.62 lower. Pork cutouts totaled 248.20 loads with 201.63 loads of pork cuts and 46.58 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: down $1.40, $99.94. Monday's slaughter is estimated at 491,000 head -- 8,000 head more than a week ago and 17,000 head more than a year ago. The CME lean hog index for Oct. 27: down $0.38, $93.77.

TUEDSAY'S HOG CALL: Higher. With Monday's slaughter as aggressive as it was, it's likely that packers show the cash market interest early in the week to secure supplies early.

Monday Midday Livestock Market Update - Week Off to Cautious Start

GENERAL COMMENTS:

The livestock complex is off to a mixed start as both the live cattle and feeder cattle contracts trade lower, concerned about the grain market rally; but lean hog contracts are trading modestly higher. USDA is having technical difficulties Monday morning so most of the reports are unavailable. December corn is up 4 3/4 cents per bushel and December soybean meal is down $3.80. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 90.69 points.

LIVE CATTLE:

The live cattle complex is trending lower into Monday afternoon as the market waits patiently to see what the grain complex does this afternoon, and to see how the market's fundamentals shape up early this week. December live cattle are down $0.67 at $152.35, February live cattle are down $0.37 at $155.95, and April live cattle are down $0.15 at $159.07. After rallying to new highs, traders have drawn back from the live cattle market as they're waiting to see how the market fundamentals hold up amid an uncertain economy. Thankfully, the cash cattle market has been resilient and boxed beef demand has strengthened noticeably as of late. If these factors continue to hold true this week, traders may think about supporting the contracts again. New showlists appear to be mixed, higher in Texas, somewhat higher in Nebraska/Colorado, but lower in Kansas.

Boxed beef prices are unavailable at this time due to the USDA's technical difficulties.

FEEDER CATTLE:

With the grain complex pushing an aggressive front with Monday's arrival, veteran traders and cattle feeders aren't surprised to see the feeder cattle complex venturing lower. November feeders are down $0.20 at $177.67, January feeders are down $0.87 at $179.50 and March feeders are down $0.80 at $181.70. The market won't likely be able to trade higher until two things happen: 1) The live cattle market lends support and trades higher itself; and 2) The grain market's rally subsides.

LEAN HOGS:

Even though the cattle contracts are off to a slow, lower start, the lean hog complex is trading mostly higher except for its spot December contract. December lean hogs are down $0.52 at $85.57, February lean hogs are up $0.17 at $89.02, and April lean hogs are up $0.82 at $93.52. With the market being far enough away from resistance that it can trade higher without pressure immediately looming, the market will likely keep with this moderate upward trek through the day's afternoon. And with the Thanksgiving holiday nearing, pork producers are hoping that hog products will sell better and better though the month of November as holiday family meals near.

The projected CME Lean Hog Index is delayed from the source, and the morning cash hog prices and pork cutout values are unavailable due to technical difficulties of the USDA's.

Monday Morning Livestock Market Update - Complex May Begin Week Under Pressure

GENERAL COMMENTS:

Cattle futures just could not push higher after the new contract high last Monday. Higher cash had been factored in with the market showing minor gains for the week. Feedlots will again be looking for more this week, but it may be more difficult to achieve the $2.00 to $5.00 gains of last week. Boxed beef has been performing well with prices pushing higher as demand remains surprisingly strong in the current financial market environment. Choice cuts increased $0.77 and with select up $2.58. Futures may trade mixed as pressure from higher corn may have a substantial impact on feeder cattle which will spill over to live cattle. The Commitment of Traders reports showed a huge swing with funds increasing their net-long positions by 27,526 contracts in live cattle, bringing their net-long positions to 63,552 contracts. This much of a swing in one week is not seen very often. Today is the final day to trade October live cattle.

Hogs were able to gain back some of the losses of Thursday. Cutouts were supportive, posting a gain of $2.88, which likely was a large part of the support seen Friday. The National Direct Afternoon report showed cash down $1.15. Traders are expecting a pattern of lower cash Monday as packers assess weekend movement before stepping up to the plate to purchase for the week. Futures may feel some spillover pressure from the cattle complex as a reaction to significantly higher grain prices overnight. The Commitment of Traders report showed increasing their net-long positions by 19,529 futures contracts to a net-long position of 53,972 contracts.

	BULL SIDE		BEAR SIDE
1)	Cash is expected higher again this week as demand remains strong and packers will need to maintain the higher slaughter pace.	1)	The strong increase of corn prices overnight may put pressure on the livestock complex.
2)	Fund traders increasing their net-long futures positions as much as they have indicated they are bullish on the market.	2)	December live cattle will be the lead month Tuesday, carrying a premium to cash. This may temper upside price potential this week even if cash trades higher.
3)	The higher close in hogs on Friday may mean the market had been overdone to the downside.	3)	Cash is not expected to provide support to the hog market Monday as packers likely will not be aggressive.
4)	Hog slaughter remains strong, outpacing the previous week and the previous year. Packers will need to be aggressive again to keep up with demand.	4)	Hog futures may feel some pressure from higher grain prices as spillover selling might be felt from cattle.

Friday Closing Livestock Market Update - Traders Turn to Next Week

GENERAL COMMENTS:

The live cattle complex closed in a mixed fashion by Friday's end, as the cattle complex saw hit and miss support from traders while the lean hog complex went higher. Hog prices closed lower on the Daily Direct Afternoon Hog Report, down $1.15 with a weighted average of $90.54 on 2,941 head. December corn is down 1 1/2 cents per bushel and December soybean meal is up $10.00. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 828.52 points.

From Friday to Friday, livestock futures scored the following changes: October live cattle down $0.10, December live cattle up $0.57; November feeder cattle down $0.47, January feeder cattle steady; December lean hogs down $3.02, February lean hogs down $1.68; December corn down $0.04, March corn down $0.04.

LIVE CATTLE:

The live cattle complex ended the week on a lower note, which is somewhat disappointing given the tremendous week the market had fundamentally. From a fundamental standpoint, the market couldn't have had a much better week as boxed beef prices traded higher, throughput was again aggressive and cash cattle prices are on fire. Throughout the week, Southern live cattle traded at mostly $150, which is $2.00 higher than last week's average, and Northern dressed cattle traded at $240, which was nearly $5.00 higher than last week's weighted average. Traders aren't displeased with where the market sits technically, but given that they recently pushed the market to new highs, they're now looking for strong, follow-through support fundamentally to keep the market trading higher. Friday's CFTC report did share that 22,470 noncommercial contracts were added to the market, which will likely increase price volatility. December live cattle closed $0.42 lower at $153.00, February live cattle closed $0.52 lower at $156.32 and April live cattle closed $0.27 lower at $159.22.

Friday's slaughter is estimated at 124,000 head, 2,000 head more than a week ago and 4,000 head more than a year ago. Saturday's slaughter is estimated at 32,000 head. This week's estimated slaughter stands at 668,000 head, 5,000 head less than a week ago and steady with a year ago.

Boxed beef prices closed higher: choice up $0.77 ($263.26) and select up $2.58 ($234.49) with a movement of 93 loads (50.42 loads of choice, 10.32 loads of select, 15.27 loads of trim and 16.56 loads of ground beef). The choice/select spread sits at $28.77. Throughout the week choice cuts averaged $261.19 (up $9.26 from last week) and select cuts averaged $229.59 (up $7.69 from last week) and the week's total movement of cuts, grinds and trim totaled 607 loads.

MONDAY'S CATTLE CALL: Higher. It's unlikely that cattle trades on Monday, but when they do trade next week, it will likely be again for higher prices as front-end supplies of market-ready cattle are incredibly sparse.

FEEDER CATTLE:

The feeder cattle contracts were able to round out Friday's trade mixed as the nearby contracts were pleased to see the regression in corn prices, but that obviously wasn't enough support to help the nearby contracts close higher. November feeders closed $0.25 lower at $177.87, January feeders closed $0.07 lower at $180.37 and March feeders closed $0.12 higher at $182.57. The market is continuing to hover between the 40-day and 100-day moving averages, but with more time obviously being spent down around the 40-day moving average, as the market lacks the power it needs to trade higher and thin margins and high input costs are hindering the market's upside potential. Oklahoma's Weekly Cattle Auction Summary shared that, throughout the week, and throughout the entire state, compared to last week, feeder steers and steer calves traded $2.00 to $5.00 higher. Feeder heifers traded steady to $3.00 higher and heifer calves sold mostly $1.00 to $3.00 higher, but there were instances of $10.00 higher on the lighter weights. Rains across the state has lightened the mood, though more rain is needed. Slaughter cows sold steady to $3.00 higher and slaughter bulls traded $2.00 lower. Feeder cattle supply over 600 pounds was 42%. The CME Feeder Cattle Index for Oct. 27: unavailable at this time.

LEAN HOGS:

The lean hog complex was able to power through Friday's end and close higher as Thursday's drastic drop moved the contracts far enough away from resistance to allow for an easy higher close. December lean hogs $0.97 higher at $86.10, February lean hogs closed $0.70 higher at $88.85 and April lean hogs closed $0.57 higher at $92.70. Helping the lean hog market close higher was Friday's aggressive chain speeds along with the higher close in pork cutout values. Friday's jump in carcass price solely stemmed from the $19.72 jump in bellies, and then somewhat from the $3.39 jump in the picnic price. Pork cutouts total 310.86 loads with 276.27 loads of pork cuts and 34.59 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: up $2.88, $101.34. Friday's slaughter is estimated at 487,000 head, 9,000 head more than a week ago and 15,000 head more than a year ago. Saturday's kill is estimated to be around 122,000 head. The CME Lean Hog Index for Oct. 26: down $0.32, $94.15.

MONDAY'S HOG CALL: Lower. Given that packers have time and time again shown that they don't really want to support the cash market until they see how early demand sits, it's unlikely that cash hog prices will be higher until Tuesday or Wednesday.

Friday Midday Livestock Market Summary - Complex Mixed Into Afternoon

GENERAL COMMENTS:

Thus far, the livestock complex has endured a mostly uneventful Friday as traders mildly support both the lean hog and feeder cattle contracts but continue to keep themselves at an arm's length distance from the live cattle contracts. The cash cattle market could see some more trade develop ahead of afternoon's close, but at this point packers have yet to offer any new bids. December corn is up 1 cent per bushel and December soybean meal is up $9.30. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 674.55 points.

LIVE CATTLE:

The live cattle complex is trading lower into Friday's afternoon as traders seem to be looking for more fundamental support before they pressure the market's resistance. Froom a fundamental sense, the market remains incredibly strong. Slaughter speeds have run aggressively this week, the cash cattle market saw a $2.00 to $5.00 advancement from last week's weighted averages and boxed beef prices have continue to print higher. The only slightly disappointing factor of this week's market was that the export report wasn't as significant as hoped. December live cattle are down $0.37 at $153.05, February live cattle are down $0.42 at $156.42 and April live cattle are down $0.17 at $159.32. So far this week, Southern live deals have been marked at mostly $150, $2 higher than last week's weighted averages. The majority of Northern dressed sales have been at $240, nearly $5 higher than last week's weighted average basis Nebraska. Given that the market hasn't seen may cattle trade, it wouldn't be unlikely to see some more business develop Friday afternoon.

Boxed beef prices are higher: choice up $0.73 ($263.22) and select up $2.66 ($234.57) with a movement of 62 loads (35.91 loads of choice, 4.95 loads of select, 11.12 loads of trim and 10.02 loads of ground beef).

FEEDER CATTLE:

The feeder cattle complex is trading higher into Friday's afternoon as the market excels upon the corn market's midday weakness. The market's higher tone solely stems from its own internal strength as the live cattle complex is trading slightly lower. There are quite a few feeder cattle buyers who have yet to fulfill their orders, but even with needing to get more cattle bought, they're careful not to jump into the market uncalculatedly as they have little room for error with margins as thin as they are. November feeders are up $0.30 at $178.42, January feeders are up $0.42 at $180.87 and March feeders are up $0.45 at $182.90.

LEAN HOGS:

After closing substantially lower Thursday afternoon, the lean hog complex is trading modestly higher as the market is no longer up against resistance pressures. December lean hogs are up $0.50 at $85.62, February lean hogs are up $0.55 at $88.70 and April lean hogs are up $0.75 at $92.87. Helping matters too is that the midday pork cutout values is up substantially, but before the market gets too confident in that figure, it knows to the complex time and see how afternoon prices fair.

The projected lean hog index for Oct. 27 is down $0.38 at $93.77, and the actual index for Oct. 26 is down $0.32 at $94.15. Hog prices are lower on the Daily Direct Morning Hog report, down $4.02 with a weighted average of $87.63, ranging from $87.00 to $93.00 on 2.069 head and a five-day rolling average of $94.04. Pork cutouts total 207.56 loads with 185.93 loads of pork cuts and 21.64 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: up $4.80, $103.26

Friday Morning Livestock Market Update - Hog Futures May Show Further Weakness

GENERAL COMMENTS:

Packers paid up to purchase cattle with a wide range of prices. Southern cattle traded around $2.00 higher while Northern cattle traded as much as $5.00 higher. With boxed beef prices trending higher due to strong demand, packers cannot afford to sit back. Lower cattle prices are just not in the cards at the present time. Strong slaughter pace needs to be maintained, even though market-ready cattle supplies are light. Higher boxed beef prices are making it a bit easier for packers to pay more and yet still maintain a profitable margin. Boxed beef showed choice up $1.63 with select up $3.31. Weekly export sales were neutral at 14,100 metric tons (mt) which did not provide support to the market. Traders did not react to the higher cash as it was already factored into the market with trading activity taking place on both sides of unchanged.

Hog futures opened lower because of disappointing export sales. Futures never regained the losses, being unable to move into positive territory. Liquidation intensified as the day progressed. The weakness may carry through Friday as the market corrects from being overbought. Although China was a buyer on the weekly export sales report, sales of 20,300 mt coupled with lower cash put pressure on the market. The National Direct Afternoon Hog report showed cash down $6.99. Cutouts were up $0.72, but that did not stem the selling tide. Follow-through selling is expected Friday.

	BULL SIDE		BEAR SIDE
1)	Strong cash sales are an indicator of tightening supply of market-ready cattle. Supply will not change overnight, providing a strong potential for higher cash next week.	1)	The inability of cattle futures to move higher after a strong gain of cash Thursday could trigger some profit-taking as the market is overbought.
2)	Demand is good and boxed beef prices are trending higher. This should keep packers aggressive.	2)	Higher beef prices will eventually impact demand, reducing upside price potential.
3)	Strong hog slaughter pace should keep packers engaged in the market and buying aggressively when they need to.	3)	Weekly pork exports being half of what they were the past few weeks may impact the market for a few days as liquidation takes place.
4)	There may be limited downside potential as hog futures correct from being overbought.	4)	Cutouts are struggling to trend higher. This may limit upside potential further than what we have already see.

Thursday Closing Livestock Market Update - Cash Cattle Trade $2.00 to $5.00 Higher

GENERAL COMMENTS:

It was a technical day for the livestock complex as traders didn't seem interested in support the contracts whatsoever. Thankfully, that didn't affect the cash cattle market as it traded $2.00 to $5.00 higher. Hog prices closed lower on the Daily Direct Afternoon Hog Report, down $6.99 with a weighted average of $91.99 on 5,698 head. December corn is down 2 3/4 cents per bushel and December soybean meal is up $6.70. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 194.17 points.

LIVE CATTLE:

The live cattle contracts may have closed lower but given that fat cattle traded $2.00 higher in the South and nearly $5.00 higher in the North, feedlots are more than pleased with the day. A moderate trade was reported in the South with cattle selling for $150, which is $2.00 higher than last week's weighted average. In the North, dressed business was marked at $240, which is nearly $5.00 higher than last week's weighted average. It's interesting to note that a regional packer in Nebraska was willing to pay $244 for cattle so that they could ensure delivery as early as next week. Needless to say, front-end supplies of cattle are thin -- extremely thin, and packers know that they've got to continue buying cattle in order to avoid become short bought. The market has seen ample support from the boxed beef sector, so packers are still willing to run aggressive chain speeds. December live cattle closed $0.15 lower at $153.42, February live cattle closed $0.17 lower at $156.85 and April live cattle closed $0.07 lower at $159.50. Thursday's slaughter is estimated at 128,000 head, steady with a week ago and 5,000 head more than a year ago.

Thursday's actual slaughter shared that for the week ending Oct. 15 steers averaged 924 pounds, which is 4 pounds more than a week go and 2 pounds more than a year ago. For the same week, heifers averaged 846 pounds, which is 3 pounds more than the week before and 6 pounds more than a year ago.

Beef net sales of 14,100 metric tons (mt) for 2022 were primarily for South Korea (4,600 mt), Japan (2,700 mt) and China (2,600 mt).

Boxed beef prices closed higher: choice up $1.63 ($262.49) and select up $3.31 ($231.91) with a movement of 129 loads (76.20 loads of choice, 18.41 loads of select, 8.53 loads of trim and 25.68 loads of ground beef). The choice/select spread sits at $30.58.

FRIDAY'S CATTLE CALL: Steady. Prices are likely to remain steady in Friday's market, but there is a chance that creep higher before the week's over as only 27,000 head of cattle have been reported as sold this week. Packers are going to need to buy more in order to avoid becoming short bought.

FEEDER CATTLE:

Even though the corn complex closed $0.02 to $0.03 lower by Thursday's end, that wasn't enough to entice traders into pushing the feeder cattle contracts higher. November feeders closed $0.70 lower at $178.12, January feeders closed $0.80 lower at $180.45 and March feeders closed $0.60 lower at $182.45. The cash side of the market saw better support throughout Thursday's market, but that wasn't enough for traders to put to rest their skeptic approach to Thursday's trade. At La Junta Livestock Commission in La Junta, Colorado, compared to last week, steer calves under 600 pounds traded steady to $2.00 higher, and steers over 600 pounds traded $3.00 to $5.00 higher. Heifer calves under 500 pounds sold mostly steady, and those over 500 pounds traded $2.00 to $3.00 higher. Yearling feeder steers sold $5.00 to $8.00 higher, and yearly heifers were too lightly tested to find an accurate trend. Slaughter cows traded $2.00 higher and slaughter bulls sold steady. Feeder cattle supplies over 600 pounds was 61%. The CME Feeder Cattle Index for Oct. 26: down $0.18, $174.78.

LEAN HOGS:

The lean hog complex had a troubling day as traders backed away from the market and let it plummet throughout Thursday's hours. Pork cutout prices and the day's export report aren't even to blame as both were supportive. Instead, it seemed as through traders simply backed away from the market and were unwilling to do anything regardless of how the market's fundamentals panned out. December lean hogs closed $3.37 lower at $85.12, February lean hogs closed $2.85 lower at $88.15 and April lean hogs closed $2.05 lower at $92.12. Earlier in the week, pork cutouts suffered as the belly was pressured by the bearish finding in this week's cold storage report as stocks of bellies were up 183% from last year, but come Thursday afternoon bellies closed $5.97 higher, which pulls the carcass price higher too. Pork cutouts totaled 343.97 loads with 309.48 loads of pork cuts and 34.49 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: up $0.72, $98.46. Thursday's slaughter is estimated at 491,000 head, steady with a week ago and 10,000 head more than a year ago. Wednesday's slaughter was revised to 484,000 head. The CME Lean Hog Index for Oct. 25: down $0.34, $94.47.

Pork net sales of 20,300 mt were primarily for Mexico (16,900 mt), China (5,600 mt) and South Korea (1,400 mt).

FRIDAY'S HOG CALL: Lower. Packers have already bought up the hogs they needed this week, so Friday's cash market isn't expected to see much support. 

Thursday Midday Livestock Market Summary - Traders Approach Contracts Cautiously

GENERAL COMMENTS:

Traders have cast a cautious tone across the livestock complex as they've aggressively supported the contracts over the past two weeks and are now taking a mere pause. It's likely the market will trade somewhat lower to steady through Thursday's end and look for continued fundamental support again next week. December corn is down 4 1/4 cents per bushel and December soybean meal is up $6.00. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 291.59 points.

LIVE CATTLE:

The cash cattle market is higher but that's not seeming to encourage traders into pushing the futures contracts any higher. December live cattle are down $0.22 at $153.35, February live cattle are down $0.25 at $156.77, and April live cattle are down $0.12 at $159.45. A light trade has developed in parts of the South for $150, which is $2.00 higher than last week's weighted average. Otherwise asking prices remain firm at $151 to $152 in the South and $155 to $156 in the North. More business is expected to develop ahead of Thursday's end, but packers are going to need to get more aggressive if they're going to get the number of cattle bought they intended. Thankfully boxed beef prices are still seeing excellent demand, but the day's export report was lukewarm as cattlemen had hoped to see a strong export sale.

Beef net sales of 14,100 metric tons (mt) for 2022 were primarily for South Korea (4,600 mt), Japan (2,700 mt) and China (2,600 mt).

Boxed beef prices are higher: choice up $0.48 ($261.34) and select up $3.02 ($231.62) with a movement of 72 loads (38.39 loads of choice, 12.12 loads of select, zero loads of trim and 21.93 loads of ground beef).

FEEDER CATTLE:

You'd think the feeder cattle market would be trading higher as the corn complex is trending $0.04 lower into Thursday afternoon, but with the live cattle complex drawing back, feeders are leery. November feeders are down $0.32 at $178.50, January feeders are down $0.45 at $180.80 and March feeders are down $0.32 at $182.72. Buyers in the countryside are still in a tough position as they want to get their orders filled but they've got to do so carefully as they have thin margins to work with and the runs of feeder cattle have been lighter than expected.

LEAN HOGS:

Oddly enough, the lean hog complex is trending lower into Thursday afternoon even after the market was met with a supportive export report. It was not only strong for the market to move 20,300 mt of pork, but to also see China as the second most aggressive buyer this week. But traders have been rather supportive of the lean hog complex over the last two weeks so today's trade could simply be nothing more than a moment of pause to allow the market to catch its breath. December lean hogs are down $3.10 at $85.40, February lean hogs are down $2.62 at $88.37 and April lean hogs are down $1.87 at $92.30.

Pork net sales of 20,300 mt were primarily for Mexico (16,900 mt), China (5,600 mt) and South Korea (1,400 mt).

The projected CME Lean Hog Index for 10/26/2022 is down $0.32 at $94.15, and the actual index for 10/25/2022 is down $0.34 at $94.47. Hog prices are lower on the Daily Direct Morning Hog Report, down $6.66 with a weighted average of $91.65, ranging from $87.00 to $100.98 on 5,398 head and a five-day rolling average of $94.46. Pork cutouts total 174.05 loads with 157.11 loads of pork cuts and 16.94 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: up $2.00, $99.74.

Thursday Morning Livestock Market Update - Traders Wait for Direction

GENERAL COMMENTS:

Even though cash cattle are expected to trade higher this week, futures seem to have stalled. Trades are not leading the market higher but may react if cash would trade more than $3.00 higher. Packers are branching out, talking to feedlots that they normal do not purchase cattle from. With the supply of market-ready cattle tight, they are looking where they can for supply. This puts feedlots into a strong position as they have competition for their cattle. After a few days of strong boxed beef prices, they were mixed Wednesday with choice down $0.57 and select up $1.25. Weekly export sales could provide some direction to the trade but most of the emphasis will be on cash prices. Thursday is the final day to trade October feeder cattle.

Hog futures seem to be consolidating as they wait for further direction. The market is overbought, but there has not been anything to trigger long liquidation and a price retracement. Cash was higher Wednesday as expected with the National Direct Afternoon Hog report showing a gain of $2.21. However, even with strong cash, cutouts have not been able to find support with values down $0.75 yesterday. The aggressive buying of packers Wednesday is likely finished for the week as has been the pattern. Weekly export sales may provide direction. Any weakness seen in sales may be the catalyst to trigger more aggressive selling of futures.

	BULL SIDE		BEAR SIDE
1)	Cash cattle are expected to trade at least $2.00 higher with the potential for even stronger cash.	1)	Cattle futures seem to have higher cash factored in with traders waiting to see how aggressive packers will be. If cash trades as expected, some selling pressure could take place into the weekend.
2)	The U.S. dollar has declined significantly over the past four days, which may benefit exports if the trend continues over the next weeks.	2)	Feeder cattle futures are struggling to maintain an uptrend with stronger corn futures likely putting some pressure on the market.
3)	Hog futures are consolidating, waiting for direction. Strong weekly export sales may provide support to push prices higher.	3)	Hog futures are overbought and have been unable to push to new highs. A few more days of mixed trade without further fundamental support could trigger profit-taking.
4)	Hog weights are 4.1 pounds below a year ago, requiring more to be processed for the same tonnage. Slaughter pace continues to outpace a year ago.	4)	If weekly exports sales are lower than the past few weeks, futures may come under selling pressure.

Wednesday Closing Livestock Market Update - Traders Anxiously Wait for the Cash Cattle Market to Trade

GENERAL COMMENTS:

It was another relatively strong day for the livestock complex as the cattle contracts closed higher on the corn market's weakness and on the speculation that cash cattle will indeed trade higher this week. The lean hog complex closed higher too as the cash market saw tremendous support form packers. Come Thursday, the market will be anxious to see the day's export report and to see how packers treat this week's cash cattle market. Hog prices closed higher on the Daily Direct Afternoon Hog Report, up $2.21 with a weighted average of $98.98 on 26,358 head. December corn is down 1 1/4 cents per bushel and December soybean meal is down $6.90. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 2.37 points.

LIVE CATTLE:

The live cattle complex seemed to more or less to sit idle throughout Wednesday's market as traders are keenly waiting to see how this week's cash cattle market shakes out. Feedlots are again pushing on packers and trying to get cattle sold for more money, and given how thin front-end supplies are, it's likely that this theme of higher cash trade continues well into December. The market hasn't seen any sizeable business shake out yet, but come Thursday cattle are expected to trade. Southern feedlots have cattle priced at $151 to $152, and live cattle in the North are priced at $155 to $156, but dressed prices are still unestablished. If cash cattle do trade higher again this week, it's likely that we'll see traders push the contracts higher too. December live cattle closed $0.27 higher at $153.57, February live cattle closed $0.32 higher at $157.02 and April live cattle closed $0.32 higher at $159.57. 

Wednesday's slaughter is estimated at 129,000 head, 2,000 head more than a week ago and 7,000 head more than a year ago.

Boxed beef prices closed mixed: choice down $0.57 ($260.86) and select up $1.25 ($228.60) with a movement 150 loads (75.94 loads of choice, 27.45 loads of select, 20.13 loads of trim and 26.89 loads of ground beef). The choice/select spread sits at 32.26.

THURSDAY'S CATTLE CALL: $2.00 to $3.00 higher. With front-end supplies of market-ready cattle being as thin as they are, packers will likely support this week's cash cattle market again in order to protect themselves from becoming short-bought.

FEEDER CATTLE:

The feeder cattle complex was able to walk out of Wednesday's market with a stronger note as the complex appreciated seeing corn trade lower and absorbed the positive support stemming from the live cattle market and from slightly stronger sales in the countryside. It seems as though this year's feeder cattle run has already come and gone and that buyers who haven't found all the cattle that they need are scratching their head. It's still hard to buy feeders and ensure a profit with feed prices as high as they currently are, but buyers are noting that there aren't nearly as many calves being sold this fall as there was last year. November feeders closed $0.90 higher at $178.82, January feeders closed $1.00 higher at $181.25 and March feeders closed $1.05 higher at $183.05.

At Winter Livestock Auction in Riverton, Wyoming, compared to last week, feeder steers under 500 pounds sold steady but there were instances of $4.00 to $8.00 higher, steers weighing 500 to 700 pounds traded steady with instances of $8.00 to $10.00 higher and $15.00 to $16.00 higher. Heifer calves sold with stronger undertones, and they sold regularly sold for $2.00 to $6.00 higher than last week, but the best advancement was on the heifer calves weighing 550 to 590 pounds as they sold $15.00 higher. Feeder cattle supply over 600 pounds was 17%. The CME Feeder Cattle Index for Oct. 25: up $0.11, $174.96.

LEAN HOGS:

Traders were leery of trading the lean hog complex too aggressively as pork cuts are seeing a little bit of pressure, but traders couldn't help but advance the market mildly as there was tremendous support from packers in the cash sector. December lean hogs closed $0.05 higher at $88.50, February lean hogs closed $0.32 higher at $91.00 and April lean hogs closed $0.22 higher at $94.17. Once again, the market's biggest hit in cutouts came from the belly as it lost $3.69, while the rest of the cuts traded anywhere from $2.00 higher to $2.00 lower. With the calendar getting closer to Thanksgiving and even Christmas, pork demand will likely perk up as Turkey prices are severely inflated. Pork cutouts total 365.68 loads with 320.48 loads of pork cuts and 45.20 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: down $0.75, $97.74. Wednesday's slaughter is estimated at 491,000 head, steady with a week ago and 7,000 head more than a year ago. The CME Lean Hog Index for Oct. 24: up $0.14, $94.81.

THURSDAY'S HOG CALL: Lower. Given that packers have been extremely active in the cash market for two days already this week, it's likely that they'll be less active throughout the remainder of this week's market.

Wednesday Midday Livestock Market Summary - Complex Pushes Higher Into Afternoon

GENERAL COMMENTS:

The livestock complex is trending higher into Wednesday's afternoon as traders are hopeful that the cash cattle market will indeed trade higher this week, and hog producers are already seeing ample interest in their cash market. It's likely that the cash cattle market won't see any substantial trade develop until Thursday or later. December corn is down 1 3/4 cents per bushel and December soybean meal is down $7.30. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 286.62 points.

LIVE CATTLE:

The live cattle contracts are back to trading higher after the market closed lower Tuesday afternoon. December live cattle are up $0.07 at $153.37, February live cattle are up $0.07 at $156.77 and April live cattle are up $0.17 at $159.42. Tuesday's inability to close higher doesn't mean that traders are putting a cap on this market's upside, but rather they're going to need to see fundamental support before they push the contracts any higher. The cash cattle market hasn't seen any action develop yet and with feedlot's gunning for higher prices again this week, it's likely that the market doesn't see any attention until Thursday. Asking prices in the South are noted at $151 to $152, but are still undeveloped in the North.

The Fed Cattle Exchange Auction held Wednesday reported six lots (all in Texas), totaling 1,120 head of cattle, none of which sold. Opening prices were at $147, high bids had a range of $147 to $148, but none of these bids met reserve prices of $150.

Boxed beef prices are mixed: choice down $0.70 ($260.73) and select up $2.08 ($229.43) with a movement of 96 loads (48.87 loads of choice, 15.38 loads of select, 13.17 loads of trim and 18.17 loads of ground beef).

FEEDER CATTLE:

With the corn complex trading mostly lower into Wednesday's afternoon, and the live cattle complex treading modestly higher, the feeder cattle contracts are trading higher as well. November feeders are up $0.72 at $178.65, January feeders are up $0.85 at $181.10 and March feeders are up $0.77 at $182.77. Throughout Tuesday's afternoon, sale barns saw a little more interest as buyers are realizing that there are fewer cattle to be had this fall and are starting to get worried about procuring all the cattle they'd hoped to get. Even so, they've got to get them bought right in order to breakeven.

LEAN HOGS:

With the extremely supportive nature of this week's cash hog market, the lean hog contracts are trading fully higher into Wednesday's afternoon. December lean hogs are up $0.70 at $89.15, February lean hogs are up $0.75 at $91.42 and April lean hogs are up $0.40 at $94.35. Packers are looking at this year's upcoming holiday season and noticing that, with the spike in turkey prices, there may be an opportunity to sell more pork during Thanksgiving and Christmas. Needless to say, if the opportunity does indeed present itself, they want to have enough product on hand to supply stores.

The projected lean hog index for Oct. 25 is down $0.34 at $94.47, and the actual index for Oct. 24 is up $0.14 at $94.81. Hog prices are higher on the Daily Direct Morning Hog Report, up $8.23 with a weighted average of $98.31, ranging from $85.00 to $104.00 on 17,228 head and a five-day rolling average of $94.80. Pork cutouts total 191.80 loads with 169.75 loads of pork cuts and 22.05 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: up $1.78, $100.27.

Wednesday Morning Livestock Market Update - Consolidation of Futures May Continue

GENERAL COMMENTS:

Cash is expected to trade higher this week, but it seems traders want to see the extent of the increase rather than leading the market higher. Demand remains good as boxed beef prices showed strong gains Tuesday. Choice increased $3.51 with select up $1.74. Slaughter pace continues to remain brisk as packers need to fill demand. Feedlots will try to capitalize on the cash strength of the past few weeks and will hold out for higher prices. Feeder cattle suffered triple-digit losses in large part due to higher grain prices. Front-month October gained $0.92 as it remains close to the index as Thursday is the final trading day for the contract.

Hog futures struggled for a period during Tuesday but closed higher in the end. Traders have not seen the need to liquidate their long positions but that may change if the market stalls. The National Direct Afternoon Hog report showed cash up $7.59 with further gain expected Wednesday. However, cutouts did not perform very well with a loss of $3.44. The question is whether strong cash or lower cutouts will influence trading Wednesday. The aggressive pace of slaughter may keep the market supported, but it is putting more pork on the market which may limit price gains.

	BULL SIDE		BEAR SIDE
1)	Feedlots will again hold for higher prices, knowing packers are looking for cattle to satisfy higher slaughter rates.	1)	Food prices continue to increase, which could result in some slowing of demand for beef. Restaurant traffic has showed signs of slowing.
2)	Boxed beef indicates strong demand as retail is aggressively purchasing to stock shelves.	2)	Cattle futures are overbought and ripe for a correction. With higher cash already factored in, there may be limited upside potential.
3)	The expectation of higher cash hogs again Wednesday may provide support to futures as packers actively look for supply.	3)	Pork production is expected to increase in the months ahead, which would keep sufficient hogs available for demand and then some, leaving packers less aggressive.
4)	Hog futures may challenge contract highs if the market holds and moves above the previous high in September.	4)	The recent sharp rise of futures leaves the market overbought, increasing the potential for a price retracement.

Tuesday Closing Livestock Market Update - Traders Look for Fundamental Assurance in the Cattle Sector

GENERAL COMMENTS:

Traders handled the cattle contracts hesitantly throughout Tuesday's market as they're needing to see follow-through support fundamentally before they'll push the contracts any higher. The lean hog market closed higher as traders felt like the demand in the cash sector was strong enough to justify a higher close. Hog prices closed higher on the Daily Direct Afternoon Hog Report, up $7.59 with a weighted average of $96.77 on 16,836 head. December corn is up 4 3/4 cents per bushel and December soybean meal is up $6.90. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 337.12 points.

LIVE CATTLE:

The live cattle complex traded mixed throughout Tuesday morning, but as the afternoon went on, the market ended up closing fully lower. December live cattle closed $0.82 lower at $153.30, February live cattle closed $0.27 lower at $156.70 and April live cattle closed $0.17 lower at $159.25. It isn't that traders are second guessing their decision to trade the market higher, but rather that they're looking for reassurance in this week's market that prices are going to trade higher again. Throughput has been extremely aggressive early this week and the boxed beef complex continues to fan the market higher as demand has been excellent. It's unlikely that the cash cattle market will trade before Thursday as feedlots sit in the driver's seat on the market and will likely set out to move prices $1.00 to $2.00 higher again this week. Asking prices are noted in the South at $151 to $152 but are still unestablished in the North. 

Tuesday's slaughter is estimated at 129,000 head, 1,000 head more than a week ago and 5,000 head more than a year ago.

Boxed beef prices closed higher: choice up $3.51 ($261.43) and select up $1.74 ($227.35) with a movement of 149 loads (93.33 loads of choice, 27.81 loads of select, 12.07 loads of trim and 15.63 loads of ground beef).

WEDNESDAY'S CATTLE CALL: Higher. The market is mostly likely to trade higher again this week, but the real question is: How much higher?

FEEDER CATTLE:

With the corn complex closing $0.04 higher in its nearby contracts and with the live cattle market lending little to no support throughout Tuesday's market, the feeder cattle contracts traipsed lower. November feeders closed $1.22 lower at $177.92, January feeders closed $1.70 lower at $180.25 and March feeders closed $1.82 lower at $182.00. The countryside is seeing a little bit better demand for calves and feeders but they're being particular about the type and kind that they're buying as absorbing a high death loss isn't something most can do with margins as thin as they are. At OKC West Livestock Auction in El Reno, Oklahoma, compared to last week, steer and heifer calves that were weaned with multiple rounds of shots sold $2.00 to $4.00 higher. But the remainder of the sale sold mostly steady. Feeder cattle supply over 600 pounds was 20%. The CME Feeder Cattle Index for Oct. 24: up $1.23, $174.85.

LEAN HOGS:

The lean hog complex closed higher even though the market traded mixed throughout the earlier part of the day. The combination of a large volume of sales in pork cuts amid a strong test in the cash market helped offset the lower price in pork cutout values. Once again, pork cutouts were pulled lower as bellies dropped $13.89, which is again likely because of the large surplus in cold storage. Otherwise, the pork cuts closed mildly lower which just minor $1.00 to $2.00 losses seen throughout the various cuts. December lean hogs closed $0.52 higher at $88.45, February lean hogs closed $0.22 higher at $90.67 and April lean hogs closed $0.05 higher at $93.95. Pork cutouts totaled 416.02 loads with 377.45 loads of pork cuts and 38.57 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: down $3.44, $98.49. Tuesday's slaughter is estimated at 490,000 head - 15,000 head more than a week ago and 13,000 head more than a year ago. Monday's hog slaughter was revised to 483,000 head. The CME Lean Hog Index for Oct. 21: up $0.62, $94.67.

WEDNESDAY'S HOG CALL: Higher. Packers showed strong interest in Tuesday's market, but they likely didn't get enough hogs bought to sit idle in Wednesday's market.

Tuesday Midday Livestock Market Summary - Hesitant Tones Drift Through the Sector

GENERAL COMMENTS:

The livestock complex is trading cautiously into Tuesday's afternoon as traders are looking for strong fundamental backing before they'll push the cattle or hog contracts any higher. Unfortunately, with the corn complex trading higher it's unlikely that the feeder cattle market will trade higher at all today. December corn is up 4 1/2 cents per bushel and December soybean meal is up $7.20. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 267.45 points.

LIVE CATTLE:

With the live cattle market rallying to new contract highs Monday, come Tuesday, the live cattle market has grown cold and somewhat leery of trading any higher as traders need to see more fundamental support before pushing the contracts any higher. December live cattle are down $0.77 at $153.35, February live cattle are down $0.22 at $156.75 and April live cattle are down $0.20 at $159.22. It's not that the market is second guessing its move, but rather instead that the market is longing for additional support before it advances higher yet again. Boxed beef prices and throughput have been exceptional this week, and cash cattle prices are expected to trade higher again. Asking prices in the South are noted at $151 to $152 and are still unestablished in the North. Cattle aren't expected to trade until Thursday or later.

Boxed beef prices are higher: choice up $3.95 ($261.87) and select up $1.79 ($227.40) with a movement of 52 loads (25.12 loads of choice, 12.16 loads of select, 4.88 loads of trim and 10.09 loads of ground beef).

FEEDER CATTLE:

The feeder cattle market is trading mostly lower as the market has slowed its aggressive pace with the live cattle complex now trading lower and with nearby corn contracts pushing a modest $0.03 to $0.04 rally into the noon hour. November feeders are down $0.37 at $178.77, January feeders are down $1.22 at $180.72 and March feeders are down $1.42 at $182.40. It's likely that, even if the live cattle market begins to trade higher Tuesday afternoon, feeders will continue to trade in a cautious manner as the market has to balance the onset of higher corn prices and doesn't have as much upside potential currently.

LEAN HOGS:

The lean hog complex is trading mixed into Tuesday's afternoon as the spot and nearby contracts need to see more fundamental support before they'll keep with their upward climb. December lean hogs are up $0.17 at $88.10, February lean hogs are steady at $90.42 and April lean hogs are down $0.12 at $93.77. If the market can see a big movement in the cash sector and see good demand in the market's afternoon pork cutout values, then the market may stand a chance at trading sideways to somewhat higher on Wednesday.

The projected lean hog index for Oct. 24 is up $0.14 at $94.81 and the actual index for Oct. 21 is up $0.62 at $94.67. Hog prices are higher on the Daily Direct Morning Hog Report, up $4.20 with a weighted average of $90.08, ranging from $85.00 to $100.00 on 5,736 head and a five-day rolling average of $92.38. Pork cutouts total 234.11 loads with 210.16 loads of pork cuts and 23.96 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: down $2.84, $99.09.

Tuesday Morning Livestock Market Update - Futures Should Remain Supported

GENERAL COMMENTS:

Live cattle showed no sign of slowing down as contracts posted triple-digit gains with October through February making new contract highs. October has made higher highs 14 consecutive trading days with six of those days being consecutive new contract highs. Strong cash last week and the bullish aspect of the Cattle on Feed report continued to provide support. With showlists down 21,500 head this week in Kansas, Nebraska and Texas, the stage is set for higher cash if packers maintain the current slaughter pace. Total beef in cold storage compared to last year is a little cause for concern as inventory totaled 522.9 million pounds and was 19% above a year ago. However, that may have a longer-term impact and will not be a focus at the present time. The Commitment of Traders report showed funds as net buyers of 2,237 futures bringing their net longs to 37,299.

Hog futures took a breather Monday after a prolonged monumental rise in price. December futures had regained the losses from the sharp decline in later September. With gains in cash and cutouts Monday, traders may gain confidence over higher prices to come. The National Direct Afternoon Hog report showed a gain of $0.29, which was a little unusual for Monday trade. Packers are expected to be more aggressive Tuesday as they look to procure a large portion of the hogs they need for the week. Cutouts gained $0.99 Monday, supported by the $7.00 gain in bellies. The September Cold Storage report showed total pork in storage at 537,9 million pounds, which is 14% above a year ago. Belly stocks showed a huge gain of 283% over September 2021 with stocks of 36.6 million pounds. The Commitment of Traders report showed funds were net buyers of 14,763 contracts, bringing their net-long positions to 35,787.

	BULL SIDE		BEAR SIDE
1)	Strong support was evident Monday and should continue Tuesday as the market sees tighter supplies.	1)	Cattle are overbought technically which could increase selling interest if the rise of futures stalls.
2)	If packers maintain current chain speeds, they will need to remain aggressive in the cash market. Higher cash is expected again this week.	2)	Packers may begin to reduce chain speed to regain control of the market over the next few weeks. This could back up cattle and improve their margins.
3)	Hog futures took a breather Monday but did not fall back. Packers are expected to be more aggressive Tuesday, as usual, which should provide support.	3)	Hog futures are overbought and ripe for a retracement after the sharp gains of the past few weeks.
4)	Higher slaughter pace and strong exports should continue to provide support. Hog supplies seem current.	4)	Cutouts have yet to establish a solid trend higher. This may limit gains from the current level unless this develops.

Monday Closing Livestock Market Update - Bullish Tones Summarize the Cattle Markets

GENERAL COMMENTS:

It was a powerful day for the cattle contracts as the markets charged on higher, rallying on the interest of traders amid such strong fundamentals. Hog prices closed higher on the Daily Direct Afternoon Hog Report, up $0.29 with a weighted average of $89.18 on 4,765 head. December corn is down 2 3/4 cents per bushel and December soybean meal is down $9.20. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 417.06 points.

Monday's Cold Storage report shared that total red meat supplies in freezers were up 1% from the previous month and up 17% from last year. Total pounds of beef in freezers were up 2% from the previous month and up 19% from last year. Frozen pork supplies were down slightly from the previous month but up 14% from last year. Stocks of pork bellies were up 3% from last month and up 183% from last year.

LIVE CATTLE:

It's almost like Monday's market woke up, stretched, poured a good cup of coffee and said, "it's time awaken the bulls!" Monday's market traded in strong fashion as traders had time to absorb last Friday's supportive Cattle on Feed report, the dynamic nature of last week's cash cattle market, the continued support in boxed beef prices and throughput again. With the spot December contract closed at yet another new contract high, cattlemen are excited to see where this market could run to given that it's fundamentals are so supportive. December live cattle closed $1.70 higher at $154.12, February live cattle closed $1.45 higher at $156.97 and April live cattle closed $1.17 higher at $159.42. Monday's slaughter is estimated at 126,000 head, steady with a week ago and 6,000 head more than a year ago. New showlists are lower in all regions.

Last week's negotiated cash cattle market was a powerful one as not only did the market see over 102,000 head trade, but feedlots were also able to push prices to the highest point they've been all year ago with the nation's weighted average being $148.94. The last time the nation's weighted average was above $148.94 was during the week of Aug. 15, 2015. Last week's negotiated cash cattle trade totaled 102,849 head. Of that, 82% (84,745 head) were committed for the nearby delivery, 18% (18,104 head) were committed for the deferred delivery.

Boxed beef prices closed higher: choice up $4.21 ($257.92) and select up $1.25 ($225.61) with a movement of 86 loads (43.69 loads of choice, 17.38 loads of select, 9.61 loads of trim and 15.34 loads of ground beef).

TUESDAY'S CASH CATTLE CALL: Higher. With showlists lighter and packers continuing to run aggressive processing speeds, the cash cattle market will likely be higher again this week.

FEEDER CATTLE:

The feeder cattle market closed higher as the market rallied off the supportive nature of Friday's Cattle on Feed report, from the weaker close in the corn market and from the supportive tones that seeped over from the live cattle market. November feeders closed $0.80 higher at $179.15, January feeders closed $1.57 higher at $181.95 and March feeders closed $1.57 higher at $183.82. It's very likely that the fat cattle market will again trade higher this week and continue this stronger, upward pace all the way through the end of the year. If the live cattle market does indeed continue to see slow, but gradual support, and the corn market doesn't pose any major threat, then the feeder cattle market could stand a chance at rallying too. But before the market can rally aggressively, buyers are going to need to see more margin, which will likely come as fat cattle trade higher. At Joplin Regional Stockyards in Carthage, Missouri, compared to last week, feeder steers weighing under 525 pounds traded $8.00 to $13.00 higher and the heavier weights sold $2.00 to $6.00 higher. Feeder heifers under 625 pounds traded $9.00 to $11.00 higher with the heavier weights trading steady to $3.00 higher. Feeder cattle supply over 600 pounds was 53%. The CME Feeder Cattle Index for Oct. 21: up $0.68, $173.62.

LEAN HOGS:

The lean hog complex closed mostly lower as the market is questioning how much higher it should trade. Traders will need to see excellent demand from the market in the forms of strong consumer interest, a strong cash hog market and another week of supportive export demand. Tuesday's market may trade higher as traders will note that pork prices did close higher Monday afternoon, and the day did process a large volume of hogs. Monday's Cold Storage report did share that, "stocks of pork bellies were up 3% from last month and up 183% from last year," which could be part of the reason why bellies closed lower Monday afternoon. December lean hogs closed $1.20 lower at $87.92, February lean hogs closed $0.07 lower at $90.45 and April lean hogs closed $0.05 higher at $93.90. Pork cutouts totaled 342.60 loads with 299.36 loads of pork cuts and 43.23 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: up $0.99, $101.93. Monday's slaughter is estimated at 491,000 head, steady with a week ago and 8,000 head more than a year ago. The CME Lean Hog Index for Oct. 20: up $0.29, $94.05.

­­­­­TUESDAY'S CASH HOG CALL: Higher. Given that packers are aggressively processing hogs, it's likely that they'll begin to procure the week's needs come Tuesday.

Monday Midday Livestock Market Update - Cattle Charge on Higher

GENERAL COMMENTS:

The live cattle and feeder cattle contracts are rallying into Monday afternoon as traders continue to support the market, thanks to strong fundamentals and Friday's bullish Cattle on Feed report. Meanwhile, the lean hog complex is trading gingerly as traders need to see follow-through support if they're to move the complex any higher. December corn is down 1/4 cent per bushel and December soybean meal is down $7.10. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 384.39 points.

LIVE CATTLE:

The live cattle complex is sporting a tremendous start to the week as cattlemen and traders alike are still absorbing last Friday's supportive Cattle on Feed report, and feedlots are once again gunning for higher prices in this week's cash market. December live cattle are up $1.57 at $154.00, February live cattle are up $1.15 at $156.67 and April live cattle are up $0.85 at $159.10. The December contract carved out a new contract high last Friday and, as the market continues to run aggressive through Monday, the momentum is pushing the complex higher yet. If boxed beef demand and throughput continue as they did last week, the market should be able to sustain this higher tone.

Last week's negotiated cash cattle trade totaled 102,849 head. Of that 82% (84,745 head) were committed for the nearby delivery, 18% (18,104 head) were committed for the deferred delivery.

Boxed beef prices are higher: choice up $3.69 ($257.40) and select up $3.52 ($227.88) with a movement of 41 loads (15.77 loads of choice, 8.91 loads of select, 5.45 loads of trim and 10.83 loads of ground beef).

FEEDER CATTLE:

With the corn complex trending mildly lower, the feeder cattle complex is off to a strong start in Monday's market. The complex is thankful for the slight dip in corn prices, but, more than anything, the feeder cattle market is still absorbing Friday's bullish Cattle on Feed report. The slight dip in placements is relieving to the market as for months higher placements have been noted as drought related stressors have forced cattle into feedlots sooner than normal. November feeders are up $0.75 at $179.10, January feeders are up $1.55 at $181.92 and March feeders are up $1.62 at $183.87.

LEAN HOGS:

The lean hog complex is trading mixed into Monday's afternoon, as the market is unsure if it can trade higher. If the day's afternoon reports show strong sales to consumers and close with higher pork cutouts, then traders may be more apt to trading higher in Tuesday's market. December lean hogs are down $0.85 at $88.27, February lean hogs are down $0.02 at $90.50 and April lean hogs are up $0.05 at $93.90.

The projected lean hog index Oct. 21 is up $0.62 at $94.67, and the actual index for Oct. 20 is up $0.29 at $94.05. Hog prices on the Daily Direct Morning Hog Report average $85.88, ranging from $85.00 to $94.00 on 3,025 head and a five-day rolling average of $91.71. Pork cutouts total 180.30 loads with 148.55 loads of pork cuts and 31.75 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: up $0.72, $101.66.

Monday Morning Livestock Market Update - Early Strength May Be Difficult to Maintain

GENERAL COMMENTS:

October live cattle futures posted higher highs for 14 consecutive days as the market needed to keep up with rising cash. Cash trading in the North took place at $4.00 higher on Friday. It will be interesting to see what will take place this week as not only will feedlots again hold for higher cash, but packers seem to be short bought after last week. Added to that was the neutral to friendly Cattle on Feed report. It will be up to demand to determine whether the slaughter pace will continue as strong as it has been. Boxed beef was higher with choice up $0.09 and select up $2.28.

Hog futures continued to run on its own without support from cash or cutouts. December futures narrowed the gap between it and cash with a vengeance. Last week, December futures gained $6.88 with February increasing $7.10. Strong slaughter pace indicates good demand with packers purchasing to maintain that speed. The National Direct Afternoon Hog report showed cash down $5.85. Cutouts could not find support declining $2.93. USDA will release the September Cold Storage report today which may have some influence on the market going forward.

	BULL SIDE		BEAR SIDE
1)	Strong cash and a friendly Cattle on Feed report could push the market higher as feedlots will look for higher prices.	1)	Live cattle futures are overbought and may trigger buy-the-rumor, sell-the-fact trading action today after the Cattle on Feed report.
2)	Even though packer margins are quite a bit less than last year, demand remains strong and slaughter pace continues to remain high to meet that demand.	2)	The friendly Cattle on Feed report may already be factored into the market leaving limited upside potential.
3)	December hog futures pushed higher and closed above chart resistance and is knocking on the door of the contract high.	3)	Cash hogs are expected to be lower today as usual on a Monday. This may temper further gains after the big move last week.
4)	Strong slaughter pace indicates good demand both domestically and internationally. Hogs are current with weights significantly below a year ago. The amount of pork in cold storage is expected to be lower than a year ago.	4)	Hogs continue to remain readily available to the market with packers able to obtain supply without difficulty.

Friday Closing Livestock Market Update - December Live Cattle Closed at New Contract High

GENERAL COMMENTS:

It was an exceptional day for the livestock complex as the markets were able to close higher and Friday's Cattle on Feed report ended up being the icing on the cake for an outstanding week. Hog prices closed lower on the Daily Direct Afternoon Hog Report, down $5.85 with a weighted average of $88.89 on 3,588 head. December corn is up 1/4 cent per bushel and December soybean meal is up $4.60. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 748.97 points.

From Friday to Friday, the livestock futures scored the following changes: October live cattle up $3.53, December live cattle up $4.65; October feeder cattle up $1.47, November feeder cattle up $3.57; December lean hogs up $6.88, February lean hogs up $7.10; December corn down $0.05, March corn down $0.06.

LIVE CATTLE:

What a powerful week it was for the live cattle complex! The sheer combination of stronger cash cattle trade, a bullish Cattle on Feed report, excellent boxed beef demand and a supportive futures complex is one strong force to be reckoned with. Cattle producers have known for a long time that the market's fundamentals were going to turn favorable to their position, but it wasn't until this last week that traders finally seemed willing to buy in and support that notion. With the December live cattle contract carving out a new contract high and cash cattle selling for $3.00 higher in the South and $4.00 higher in the North, it's hard telling where the top to this market will be. December live cattle closed $0.75 higher at $152.42, February live cattle closed $0.67 higher at $155.52 and April live cattle closed $0.67 higher at $158.25. Throughout the week, Southern cattle traded for $148, which is $3.00 higher than last week's weighted average, and Northern dressed cattle traded for $236, which is $4.00 higher than last week's weighted average. 

Friday's slaughter is estimated at 122,000 head, 8,000 head more than a week ago and year ago. Saturday's slaughter is projected to be 42,000 head. This week's slaughter is estimated at 673,000 head, 13,000 head more than a week ago and 11,000 head more than a year ago.

Fresh beef imports into the country totaled 18,520 metric tons with Canada, Mexico and Australia being the largest importers. Year to date, the country has imported 943,000 metric tons of fresh beef, which is 6% higher than a year ago.

Boxed beef prices closed higher: choice up $0.09 ($253.71) and select up $2.28 ($224.36) with a movement of 94 loads (48.55 loads of choice, 19.28 loads of select, 13.30 loads of trim and 13.19 loads of ground beef). Throughout the week choice cuts averaged $251.93 (up $5.62 from last week) and select cuts averaged $221.90 (up $7.16 from last week) with a movement of 675 loads of cuts, grinds and trim.

MONDAY'S CASH CATTLE CALL: Higher. With packers not able to buy as many cattle in the North as they hoped for, next week's market will be higher, but the real question is how much higher?

FEEDER CATTLE:

The feeder cattle complex managed to close higher as the market clung to the support that seeped over from the live cattle market, as it celebrated cash cattle trading higher and the December live cattle contract closing at a new high. The market was keenly watching the corn complex as, even though the bullish news from the live cattle sector is encouraging, it can easily be overcome and outweighed by higher trade in the grain sector. As mentioned earlier, the feeder cattle complex will likely continue to try to trade higher as its live cattle counterpart is doing so vigorously, but it's going to take some time before the feeder cattle market can trade in the same vigorous manner as cattle buyers simply need to see more margin in their business before they'll get excited. November feeders closed $0.80 higher at $178.35, January feeders closed $1.12 higher at $180.37 and March feeders closed $0.80 higher at $182.25. Oklahoma Weekly Cattle Auction Summary shared that, throughout the entire state, and when compared to last week, feeder steers traded mostly steady, but there were instances where feeder steers traded $8.00 higher. Feeder heifers traded $2.00 to $6.00 stronger. Steer calves sold $2.00 to $6.00 higher and heifer calves sold steady to $4.00 higher. Slaughter cows sold mostly steady to $2.00 lower, with the biggest decline on breaker cows. Slaughter bulls traded mostly steady. Feeder cattle supply over 600 pounds was 43%. The CME Feeder Cattle Index for Oct. 20: unavailable at this time.

LEAN HOGS:

It was a tremendous week for the lean hog complex and Friday's trade did not lay down on the job whatsoever. Throughout the day, the market traded higher and closed well above nearby resistance levels, seeming to prove to the market that fundamental support is plentiful enough to justify breaking out and trading higher. December lean hogs closed $2.10 higher at $89.12, February hogs closed $1.42 higher at $90.52 and April lean hogs closed $0.72 higher at $93.85. Pork cutout values did see a slight drop off in Friday's afternoon report, but that largely came as bellies dropped $10.12 lower, and picnics closed $5.95 lower. Throughout the earlier part of the week, demand was strong and helped elevate not only pork cutout values but also the future complex. Pork cutouts total 334.43 loads with 297.73 loads of pork cuts and 36.70 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: down $2.93, $100.94. Friday's slaughter is estimated at 478,000 head, 5,000 head more than a week ago and year ago. Saturday's slaughter is projected to be around 145,000 head. The CME Lean Hog Index for Oct. 19: up $0.56, $93.76.

­­­­­MONDAY'S CASH HOG CALL: Lower. The cash market will likely start out lower as it usually does, but then by Tuesday or Wednesday the market should see more interest arise from packers.

Friday Midday Livestock Market Update - Will Packers Get More Aggressive

GENERAL COMMENTS:

The livestock complex is trading mostly higher into Friday's afternoon as the market runs into the week's final hours supported in nearly every sense. The big question heading into the afternoon is: will more cattle trade in the North, and how will the afternoon's Cattle on Feed report affect next week's market? December corn is up 1 3/4 cents per bushel and December soybean meal is up $2.00. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 373.77 points.

LIVE CATTLE:

The live cattle complex is trading mostly higher into Friday's afternoon even though the market has seen some slight pressure throughout the morning's hours. December live cattle are up $0.10 at $151.77, February live cattle are down $0.07 at $154.77 and April live cattle are up $0.10 at $157.67. The biggest nailbiter about Friday's market is the cash cattle sector. It's been a very long time since we've seen bids being offered on a Friday, but given that packers weren't able to buy many cattle in the North on Thursday, they're still asking around seeing what's available and if any feedlots will let some cattle go. At this point, the market has yet to trade anything more, and unless packers get more aggressive, they may be slightly short bought coming out of this week.

So far this week, Southern live transactions have been at mostly $148, $3.00 higher than last week's weighted averages. Northern dressed sales were at mostly $236, $4.00 higher than last week's weighted average basis Nebraska.

Boxed beef prices are higher: choice up $0.11 ($253.73) and select up $3.51 ($225.59) with a movement of 49 loads (33.54 loads of choice, 5.44 loads of select, zero loads of trim and 9.71 loads of ground beef).

FEEDER CATTLE:

The feeder cattle complex is trading higher into Friday's afternoon even though the live cattle market is trading mixed and corn is higher. It's very likely that the feeder cattle market keeps with its modestly higher trend through closing as the market is uncertain about its immediate future. If corn prices can trend no higher than steady -- while the live cattle market takes off and trades higher amid a rallying cash cattle market -- then, in time, the feeder cattle market will also be able to rally as more profits will be seen by feeders. In the meantime, with corn prices as high as they are, there's little margin for buyers to be had at this point. November feeders are up $0.45 at $178.00, January feeders are up $0.70 at $179.95 and March feeders are up $0.47 at $181.92.

LEAN HOGS:

The resistance at $88.00 hasn't weakened Friday's market as the December contract is trading well into the $89.00 range. The market has seen phenomenal support this past week both technically and fundamentally and as demand continues to funnel into the market from buyers domestically and internationally; the market's morale has changed significantly. December lean hogs are up $2.72 at $89.77, February lean hogs are up $1.62 at $90.72 and April lean hogs are up $0.97 at $94.10. Given that the market is seeing this much support while breaking into the afternoon, it's very likely that the momentum is kept through closing and stands a chance at even carrying into next week.

The projected lean hog index is unavailable at this time. Hog prices are undefined on the Daily Direct Morning Hog report because of Thursday's delay in reporting, all the report shares is that 2,500 head have traded this morning and that the five-day rolling average now sits at $91.34. Pork cutouts total 204.52 loads with 187.27 loads of pork cuts and 17.25 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: down $1.26, $102.61.