Wednesday, October 19, 2022

Wednesday Midday Livestock Market Update - Complex Continues to Charge Higher

GENERAL COMMENTS:

With the corn complex continuing to trade lower and demand remaining strong for both beef and pork products, the livestock complex is keeping with its aggressive pace into Wednesday afternoon. The cash cattle market hasn't seen any interest develop at this point, and it's likely trade could wait to develop until sometime Thursday. December corn is down 4 1/2 cents per bushel and December soybean meal is up $0.30. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 53.68 points.

LIVE CATTLE:

The live cattle complex is again charging ahead and trading higher as the noon hour approaches. Traders have seemed to turn to the market's fundamentals and believe higher prices are fully achievable for the complex, especially if demand continues to be as strong as it has been. Helping fuel the live cattle complex has been the tremendous support boxed beef prices have seen this week. With the market trading steadily higher this week, it seems cautiously safe to say the market could have found its seasonal low. October live cattle are up $0.52 at $149.00, December live cattle are up $1.25 at $151.02 and February live cattle are up $1.17 at $153.95. The cash cattle market hasn't seen any bids develop at this point and given that feedlots are in the driver's seat of the cash cattle market, packers will likely have to get far more aggressive if they're going to get any cattle bought this week. It wouldn't be surprising to see trade wait to develop until Thursday. Asking prices are noted in the South at $147 and $148.

The Fed Cattle Exchange Auction held Wednesday reported seven lots (six lots in Texas and one lot in Kansas), totaling 1,574 head of cattle, none of which sold. Opening prices were at $144 to $145, high bids had a range of $144 to $144.50, but none of these bids met reserve prices of $147 to $148.

Boxed beef prices are higher: choice up $2.46 ($253.34) and select up $2.00 ($223.28) with a movement of 87 loads (46.02 loads of choice, 20.20 loads of select, 12.50 loads of trim and 8.58 loads of ground beef).

FEEDER CATTLE:

The feeder cattle complex is keeping with its upward push as the corn market is trending 4 cents lower in nearby contracts into Wednesday afternoon. And while the corn market thankfully alleviates some pressure from the feeder cattle market, the live cattle complex is helping propel the market higher as not only is it trading higher through its contracts, but it's also looking like cash cattle will trade higher again this week. October feeders are up $0.40 at $175.22, November feeders are up $0.22 at $178.05 and January feeders are up $0.77 at $179.97.

LEAN HOGS:

The lean hog complex is continuing to charge higher into Wednesday afternoon as the market is ecstatic to be seeing such demand in the cash market. With pork cutout values closing slightly lower Tuesday afternoon, there was a chance traders could have drawn back cautiously and looked to see how demand fared throughout Wednesday's market. But with midday pork prices printing higher and cash hogs selling extremely well, traders haven't batted an eye at pushing the complex higher yet again. December lean hogs are up $0.32 at $86.77, February lean hogs are up $0.60 at $88.40 and April lean hogs are up $0.65 at $92.40.

The projected CME Lean Hog Index for 10/18/2022 is up $0.01 at $93.20 and the actual index for 10/17/2022 is down $0.16 at $93.19. Hog prices are higher on the Daily Direct Morning Hog Report, up $7.49 with a weighted average of $94.56, ranging from $83.00 to $102.00 on 10,196 head and a five-day rolling average of $89.47. Pork cutouts total 171.40 loads with 149.53 loads of pork cuts and 21.87 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: down $0.27, $102.40.




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