GENERAL COMMENTS:
For the most part, Friday's market treated the livestock complex favorably as the contracts closed mostly higher. Come Monday, we will see how traders view Friday's Cattle on Feed report, which showed greater placements than expected. Hog prices closed lower on the Daily Direct Afternoon Hog Report, down $1.75 with a weighted average price of $93.04 on 2,096 head. December corn is down 32 3/4 cents per bushel and December soybean meal is down $17.70. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 217.07 points.
From Friday to Friday, livestock futures scored the following changes: June live cattle down $0.85, August live cattle down $0.95; August feeder cattle down $0.97, September feeder cattle down $0.47; July lean hogs down $1.57, August lean hogs down $1.00; July corn down $0.09, September corn down $0.09.
Friday's Cold Storage report shared that total red meat supplies in freezers were down 7% from last month and down 11% from a year ago. Total pounds of beef in freezers were down 6% from last month and down 20% from a year ago. Frozen pork supplies were down 7% from a month ago and down 4% from last year. Stocks of pork bellies were up 2% from last month and up 46% from last year.
LIVE CATTLE:
The live cattle complex mostly rallied Friday with just a few of the nearby contracts closing lower as traders grew hesitant about support the nearby contracts when cash prices are trading lower and ahead of the afternoon's Cattle on Feed report. August live cattle closed $0.37 lower at $170.77, October live cattle closed $0.17 lower at $174.50 and December live cattle closed $0.02 higher at $178.70. The cash cattle market had most of its business done ahead of Friday's trade. Throughout the week, Northern cattle traded for mostly $290, which is $6.00 lower than last week's weighted average and Southern live cattle traded for mostly $180 which is $2.00 lower than last week's weighted average.
Beef net sales of 13,300 mt for 2023 were up 4% from the previous week but down 14% from the prior four-week average. The three largest buyers were China (4,700 mt), Japan (2,900 mt) and South Korea (1,900 mt).
Friday's slaughter is estimated at 120,000 head, 2,000 head more than a week ago and 2,000 head less than a year ago. Saturday's slaughter is projected to be around 26,000 head. This week's slaughter is estimated at 649,000 head, 15,000 head more than a week ago and 16,000 head less than a year ago.
Boxed beef prices closed lower: choice down $0.46 ($334.01) and select down $3.84 ($299.96) with a movement of 78 loads (34.95 loads of choice, 26.53 loads of select, zero loads of trim and 17.00 loads of ground beef).
MONDAY'S CATTLE CALL: Lower. Given that cash cattle prices have traded lower now over the last two weeks, packers will likely use the market's weaker tone in boxed beef prices as a talking point as to why cash prices should continue to trade lower. To avoid being short bought packers will still need to support the market to some degree, however.
FEEDER CATTLE:
The feeder cattle complex ran wildly through Friday's end as the market saw the corn complex's weakness as its opportunity to rally. August feeders closed $3.27 higher at $233.95, September feeders closed $3.17 higher at $237.70 and October feeders closed $2.97 higher at $240.15. It was a back-and-forth week for feeders as they had to react to the various changes in corn prices, and early next week traders will have to come to terms with today's Cattle on Feed report, which showed larger placements than expected.
The Oklahoma Weekly Cattle Auction Summary shared that compared to last week feeder steers traded $5.00 to $10.00 lower while feeder heifers sold $4.00 to $8.00 lower. Steer and heifer calves traded steady to $2.00 higher. Slaughter cows sold steady to $3.00 higher while slaughter bulls sold steady to $5.00 lower. Feeder cattle supply over 600 pounds was 69%. The CME Feeder Cattle Index for June 22: down $0.73, $221.00.
LEAN HOGS:
The nearby lean hog contracts grew skeptical of closing higher ahead of Friday's end, but that didn't damper the morale in the deferred contracts. July lean hogs closed $0.57 lower at $91.27, August lean hogs closed $0.30 lower at $89.67 and October lean hogs closed $0.12 higher at $79.97. Pork cutout values closed higher, which always helps the morale of the market. The gains seen in the various cuts were all fairly significant as they worked to offset the $10.66 drop in the rib, and the $4.29 drop in the ham. The loin jumped $4.37, the butt jumped $6.79, the picnic jumped $2.17 and the belly gained $2.00. Next week will be a big one for the lean hog complex as Thursday is set to release the newest Quarterly Hogs and Pigs report. With feed prices high and producers knowing the implications of Prop 12 coming down the pike, the report could unveil a smaller breeding inventory. Pork cutouts totaled 197.10 loads with 173.51 loads of pork cuts and 23.59 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: up $0.86, $97.36. Friday's slaughter is estimated at 452,000 head, 3,000 head less than a week ago and 16,000 head more than a year ago. Saturday's slaughter is projected to be around 79,000 head. The CME Lean Hog Index for June 21: up $0.85, $90.47.
Pork net sales of 28,700 mt for 2023 were up 7% from the previous week and up 10% from the prior four-week average. The three largest buyers were Mexico (12,100 mt), Canada (5,000 mt) and South Korea (3,100 mt).
MONDAY'S HOG CALL: Steady. Given that pork cutouts have been hit and miss in regards to prices, packers could wait until midweek before they active support the cash market again.
No comments:
Post a Comment