GENERAL COMMENTS:
The livestock complex traded with mixed interest from traders ahead of Wednesday's Fourth of July holiday. The lean hog complex was by far the most aggressive market while the live cattle market remained hesitant about trading higher before seeing what the week's cash cattle market amounts to. Meanwhile feeders closed slightly higher thanks to the mostly lower close in the corn complex. Hog prices closed higher on the Daily Direct Afternoon Hog Report, up $5.70 with a weighted average price of $96.66 on 4,915 head. December corn is down 1 1/4 cents per bushel and December soybean meal is down $1.30. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 10.87 points.
**The markets are closed Tuesday, July 4, to celebrate our great nation! Regular DTN market comments will resume on Wednesday, July 5.**
LIVE CATTLE:
The live cattle complex closed mixed with the market's nearby contracts remaining hesitant while the deferred contracts closed higher. Given that Tuesday is a holiday, it makes perfect sense that traders were leery of overly supporting the live cattle complex after running the contracts sharply higher last Friday. Once there's a better understanding of what the week's cash cattle market is going to do, traders will likely also feel more confident. With less than 60,000 head trading in last week's cash market, it's likely that this week's market trades higher. August live cattle closed $0.35 lower at $176.82, October live cattle closed $0.22 lower at $179.32 and December live cattle closed $0.10 lower at $183.42.
Monday's slaughter is estimated at 76,000 head, 49,000 head less than a week ago and incomparable to a year ago.
Last week's cash cattle trade was spotty and developed periodically throughout the week. Southern live cattle traded for $178 to $184, but mostly at $178 to $179, which is $1.00 to $2.00 lower than the previous week's weighted average. Northern dressed cattle traded for $280 to $290 but mostly for $288 to $290, which is steady to $2.00 lower than last week's weighted average. Live sales in the North were marked at $182 to $184, which is $1.00 lower to $1.00 higher than the previous week's weighted average. Last week's negotiated cash cattle trade totaled 53,487 head. Of that, 85% (45,676 head) were committed to the nearby delivery, while the remaining 15% (7,811 head) were committee to the deferred delivery.
Boxed beef prices closed higher: choice up $0.62 ($328.34) and select up $0.67 ($294.30) with a movement of 71 loads (39.99 loads of choice, 16.58 loads of select, zero loads of trim and 14.30 loads of ground beef).
WEDNESDAY'S CATTLE CALL: Higher. Given that last week's market only saw 53,487 head traded, this week's cash cattle market should be higher as packers are going to need cattle.
FEEDER CATTLE:
The feeder cattle complex was able to close higher as the market saw the corn sector's weakness as a positive sign in which it needed to capitalize on. August feeders closed $0.32 higher at $247.90, September feeders closed $0.55 higher at $251.37 and October feeders closed $0.62 higher at $253.15. It's assumed that the cash cattle market will trade higher later this week, and, if that does end up being the case, feeders could easily continue their upward trek as support is easy to come by for the market right now. The CME Feeder Cattle Index for June 30: down $1.34, $231.41.
LEAN HOGS:
The lean hog complex continued to rally through the day's end but only the market's nearby contracts closed higher as the deferred months petered out and closed slightly lower. July lean hogs closed $2.17 higher at $97.82, August lean hogs closed $1.72 higher at $94.32 and October lean hogs closed $1.22 higher at $79.60. As traders appraised the marketplace, they felt encouraged that pork demand has been supportive and didn't hesitate to push the spot July contract above and beyond the resistance at $95.00. The big question come Wednesday will be: Can the market sustain above that threshold? Pork cutout values closed sharply higher, but that was skewed by a $23.21 jump in the belly. Pork cutouts totaled 175.56 loads with 159.24 loads of pork cuts and 16.32 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: up $5.55, $108.00. Monday's slaughter is estimated at 394,000 head,46,000 head less than a week ago and incomparable to a year ago. The CME Lean Hog Index for June 29: up $0.50, $93.92.
WEDNESDAY'S HOG CALL: Steady. It's somewhat of a stretch to say that cash hog prices could be higher on Wednesday when prices jumped $5.70 Monday, but only a thin 4,915 head were traded.
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