GENERAL COMMENTS:
From Friday to Friday, livestock futures scored the following changes: December Live cattle up $2.78, February Live cattle up $3.63; January Feeder cattle up $5.60, March Feeder cattle up $6.10; February Lean hogs up $3.48, February Lean hogs up $2.93; February Pork cutout off $0.62, April Pork cutout off $0.55.
Strong triple-digit gains developed in nearby livestock futures during the week as cattle futures traded higher five out of the last six trading sessions. The strong upward shift in stock markets also helped to move the thought process away from a doom and gloom focus where prices have been at or near support levels over the past couple of months. Limited gains were seen through most of the trading session Friday, but late-week positioning helped to stimulate triple digit gains once again in several cattle and hog contracts.
Hog prices closed lower on the Daily Direct Afternoon hog report, down $1.22 with a weighted average of $47.99 on 2,445 hogs. March corn closed up 3 3/4 at $4.83 and January soybean meal closed up $1.90 at $405.60. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 56.81 at 37,305.16.
LIVE CATTLE:
Live cattle futures continued to advance Friday despite the sluggish early trading woes that left prices mixed to moderately lower during the first couple hours of trade. Late-day support continued to move into the market with triple-digit gains seen in all actively traded contract months.
February futures closed at $169.35 per cwt, which recorded a December high, creating even more momentum at the end of the week and a positive end to what has been a very positive week where prices posted strong weekly market gains in all nearby contract months.
Cash cattle is finally starting to become more active with trade seen in most areas through mid to late afternoon Friday. Cash prices are seen at $170 per cwt in the South on a live basis and $168 to $170 live basis in the North. There are still $267 dressed bids in the north that are being passed. Prices are generally $1 to $2 per cwt below last week's weighted average, but $1 to $2 per cwt above where limited early week trade took place. This may be the signal that points to a turnaround for cash cattle prices following several weeks of decreasing price trends.
December live cattle closed $0.73 higher at $168.225, February live cattle closed $1.43 higher at $169.35 and April live cattle closed $1.28 higher at $172.85.
Friday's slaughter is estimated at 121,000 head, 1,000 head less than a week ago and 3,000 head more than a year ago. Estimated Saturday slaughter is 23,000 head, which would move the estimated weekly slaughter this week to 649,000 head. This is 14,000 more than last week, and 27,000 head above year ago levels.
Boxed beef prices closed mixed: choice down $0.68 ($291.64) and select up $2.56 ($260.82) with a movement of 134.16 loads (73.83 loads of choice, 18.31 loads of select, 23.94 loads of trim and 18.08 loads of ground beef).
MONDAY'S CATTLE CALL: Steady. Activity Monday is expected to remain sluggish, but the focus for cattle futures will be to secure steady to higher money going into the Christmas weekend.
FEEDER CATTLE:
Feeder cattle futures posted another strong close Friday with gains over $2 per cwt in all but spot January contract months. The focus on increased positive outlook for the new year is helping to draw additional interest back into the complex. With the feeder cattle complex posting strong gains for the week heading into the week before Christmas, there is growing potential that additional buyer support may continue to develop at the end of the year.
January feeders closed $1.55 higher at $220.9, March feeders closed $2.05 higher at $222.175 and April feeders closed $2.25 higher at $226.575. The CME Feeder Cattle Index for Dec. 13: up $1.23, $219.07.
LEAN HOGS:
Lean hog futures shifted higher once again Friday. Even though the lean hog complex does not have the momentum and aggressive buyer support seen in the cattle complex, the ability to add significant distance from support levels over the last week is helping to add to positive shifts in all contracts. The outlook for pork demand and export movement in 2024 is becoming slightly less concerning, but there is a long way to go before active trader interest quickly develops.
February lean hogs closed $1.43 higher at $71.9, April lean hogs closed $1.45 higher at $78.625 and May lean hogs closed $0.65 higher at $84.70. Friday's hog slaughter is estimated at 478,000 head, 1,000 head less than a week ago and 32,000 head more than a year ago. Saturday slaughter is estimated at 297,000 head. Total week to date estimated slaughter, including Saturday, is 2.69 million head. Pork Cutouts totaled 228.65 loads with 204.81 loads of pork cuts and 23.84 loads of trim. Pork cutout values are up $0.76 at $84.33. The CME Lean Hog Index for Dec. 13: down $0.38, $67.75.
MONDAY'S HOG CALL: Steady to $1 higher. The growing support in futures trade combined with active early week procurement levels ahead of the Christmas Holiday is likely to help bring potential support to cash values Monday.
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