Thursday Closing Livestock Market Update - Fed Cash Cattle Prices Jump $4 to $7 Higher

GENERAL COMMENTS:

The livestock complex rounded out the week on a strong note, as all three of the contracts closed higher Thursday afternoon. And with the extra fundamental support of sharply higher fed cash cattle prices, the market really did perform on Thursday! May corn is down 2 cents per bushel, and May soybean meal is down $1.10. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 527.16 points. Thursday's export report revealed that beef net sales of 17,500 metric tons (mt) for 2025 were up 47% from the previous week and 78% from the prior four-week average. The three largest buyers were Japan (7,700 mt), South Korea (3,700 mt) and Mexico (2,100 mt). Pork net sales of 20,500 mt for 2025 were down 14% from the previous week and 35% from the prior four-week average. The three largest buyers were Japan (7,100 mt), Mexico (3,200 mt) and South Korea (2,300 mt).

** Customer Note: The markets will be closed on Friday, April 18, for Good Friday, so regular DTN commentary will resume on Monday, April 21. Happy Easter! **

LIVE CATTLE:

It was an impressive day for the live cattle complex, as not only did traders lend the market ample support, but the fed cash cattle market also shocked everyone! Shortly after the noon hour, trade started to develop, and prices were noted sharply higher than compared to a week ago. Northern dressed cattle were marked at $332 to $335, which is $4 to $7 higher than last week's weighted average, and Southern live cattle were traded for mostly $210, which is $6 higher than last week's weighted average. June live cattle closed $2 higher at $204.07, August live cattle closed $1.17 higher at $200.12 and October live cattle closed $0.75 higher at $198.32. 

Thursday's slaughter is estimated at 120,000 head -- 6,000 head more than a week ago and 2,00 head more than a year ago.

Boxed beef prices closed mixed: choice down $0.63 ($332.90) and select up $2 ($316.39) with a movement of 143 loads (102.69 loads of choice, 13.63 loads of select, 12.64 loads of trim and 13.56 loads of ground beef).

FRIDAY'S CATTLE CALL: Steady. If there is any more clean-up trade on Friday, it will likely be at steady prices with Thursday's trend.

FEEDER CATTLE:

What a day, what a day, what a day! It was truly an incredible day for the feeder cattle complex, as the market received overwhelming support as the futures complex traded higher yet again, and buyer demand is so good in the countryside that the CME feeder cattle index reached a new top of $293.57. Couple all that bullishness with the fact that fed cash cattle prices traded higher this week, and it's a near slam dunk for the market with support truly overflowing. The only factor that may slightly affect the feeder cattle complex next week is Thursday's USDA April 1 Cattle on Feed report. Placements came in 5% higher than a year ago, but that's not something to be troubled by, as placements just a year ago were down a whopping 12% which significantly affects the year-over-year comparison. (For more, see the "USDA April 1 Cattle on Feed Report" story in the News section.)

May feeders closed $2.45 higher at $286.85, August feeders closed $1.42 higher at $290.87 and September feeders closed $0.95 higher at $289.57. At La Junta Livestock Commission in La Junta, Colorado, compared to last week, feeder steers traded $2 to $8 higher, and feeder heifers traded $6 to $9 higher. Feeder cattle supply over 600 pounds was 43%. The CME feeder cattle index 4/16/2025: up $5.54, $293.57.

LEAN HOGS:

The lean hog complex had a tremendous week of steady gains all the way through Thursday's end. June lean hogs closed $0.07 higher at $98.02, July lean hogs closed $0.20 higher at $98.10 and August lean hogs closed $0.17 higher at $96.45. Thursday's close in the spot June contract puts the contract's price back up to its highest level in the last month. And thanks again to the added support of the belly's $6.28 jump, the carcass price was also able to close higher. Hog prices were unavailable on the Daily Direct Afternoon Hog Report because of confidentiality. However, we could see that only 536 head traded and that the market's five-day rolling average sits at $84.74. Pork cutouts totaled 298.18 loads with 260.18 loads of pork cuts and 38 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: up $0.74, $92.78. Thursday's slaughter is estimated at 475,000 head -- 13,000 head less than a week ago and 9,000 head less than a year ago. The CME lean hog index 4/15/2025: down $0.28, $85.09.

FRIDAY'S HOG CALL: Lower. Packers appear to be done buying for the week.

Thursday Midday Livestock Market Summary - Traders Push Contracts Higher While Waiting for Cash Cattle Trade

GENERAL COMMENTS:

Although it's late in the week, the livestock complex continues to be well supported by traders as all three of the markets are trading higher into Thursday's noon hour. Bids are on the table in Nebraska, but otherwise the cash cattle market sits in silence. May corn is up 1 1/4 cents per bushel and May soybean meal is down $1.60. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 502.64 points.

Beef net sales of 17,500 mt for 2025 were up 47% from the previous week and 78% from the prior 4-week average. The three largest buyers were Japan (7,700 mt), South Korea (3,700 mt) and Mexico (2,100 mt). Pork net sales of 20,500 mt for 2025 were down 14% from the previous week and 35% from the prior 4-week average. The three largest buyers were Japan (7,100 mt), Mexico (3,200 mt) and South Korea (2,300 mt).

LIVE CATTLE:

Traders are patiently waiting for this week's fed cash cattle trade to get underway, but that's not holding them back from pushing the live cattle contracts higher. April live cattle are up $2.15 at $209.22, June live cattle are up $1.55 at $203.62 and August live cattle are up $0.97 at $199.92. There's a chance that the anticipation of this afternoon's Cattle on Feed report could derail some of trader's will to continue to drive the contracts higher, but at this point, that's not yet been the case. There are few bids on the table in parts of Nebraska at $208 live and $328 dressed, but still no cattle have traded. The South remains quiet without any bids having surfaced, but asking prices are noted at $208 to $210. At this point, trade could develop later this afternoon or potentially be delayed until Friday.

Boxed beef prices are higher: choice up $1.34 ($334.87) and select up $2.82 ($317.21) with a movement of 49 loads (26.97 loads of choice, 5.52 loads of select, 7.71 loads of trim and 8.90 loads of ground beef).

FEEDER CATTLE:

Again, the feeder cattle complex is relentlessly rallying into the day's noon hour, despite the fact that later today the month's Cattle on Feed report will be released. Given that the estimated values of which placements could be, there's a chance that some market hesitation could creep into the complex this afternoon leading up to that report. But all throughout Thursday's trade, the feeder cattle contracts have willfully traded higher as bullish undertones continue to be the market's biggest theme. May feeders are up $2.30 at $286.72, August feeders are up $1.72 at $291.17 and September feeders are up $1.17 at $289.80.

LEAN HOGS:

The lean hog complex is leaning into Thursday's noon hour fully higher and is very appreciative of the help of stronger pork cutout values late this week. June lean hogs are up $0.52 at $98.47, July lean hogs are up $0.67 at $98.57 and Augst lean hogs are up $0.62 at $96.90. It's rather impressive to note that this morning, not a single major cut is reported lower, but the belly does take today's cake with the highest day-over-day gain of $6.36. However, it's followed by the picnic, which is up $3.89.

The projected lean hog index for 4/16/2025 is up $0.12 at $85.21, and the actual index for 4/15/2025 is down $0.28 at $85.09. Hog prices are unavailable on the Daily Direct Morning Hog Report because of confidentiality. However, we can see that only 201 head have traded and that the market's five-day rolling average now sits at $85.03. Pork cutouts total 175.11 loads with 152.72 loads of pork cuts and 22.39 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: up $2.15, $94.19.

Thursday Morning Livestock Market Update - Traders Will Adjust Positions Ahead of Cattle on Feed Report

GENERAL COMMENTS:

Cattle futures were surprisingly strong with live cattle futures leading the way. Optimism over continued strong beef demand is providing support with gains in futures over the past four consecutive days. The consensus is for cash to trade no less than steady with last week and some anticipate higher prices. No cattle have traded so far this week as feedlots are holding out in the anticipation that packers will step up. Boxed beef prices did not perform well Wednesday with choice down $1.90 and select down $0.85. The Cattle on Feed report will be released Thursday. The average estimate for on-feed numbers on April 1 is 98.3% of a year ago, with a range of 97.5% to 99.0%. March placements are estimated at 103.7% with a range of 99.0% to 106.4%. Marketings are estimated at 100.7% with a range of 99.0% to 101.5%. Thursday is the last trading day of the week, with the markets closed on Good Friday.

Hogs found strong technical buying interest as technical traders seem to be intent on closing the chart gaps remaining from two weeks ago. Cash and cutouts have not been trending higher but continue to remain choppy. However, that does not mean demand is lackluster as the slaughter pace remains strong. The average weight for hogs declined by one pound last week to 291.0 pounds. Pork demand is expected to improve as the grilling season unfolds, keeping prices supported. The National Daily Direct Afternoon Hog report showed cash up $0.38. Packers are not expected to be aggressive Thursday as they have purchased most of their weekly needs. Pork cutout values increased by $0.31 on Wednesday. Slaughter will be disrupted this weekend with Good Friday slaughter expected at 432,000 head, Saturday slaughter at 22,000 head, and Monday slaughter at about 368,000.

	BULL SIDE		BEAR SIDE
1)	Cash cattle are expected to trade no less than steady this week, supporting futures.	1)	Traders could liquidate some of their recent long positions ahead of the Cattle on Feed report, putting some pressure on the market.
2)	Later live cattle futures contracts still have chart gaps to fill above the market.	2)	Cash cattle could trade lower as packers have already purchased some cattle ahead and may not need to be aggressive.
3)	Weekly hog weights declined one pound to an average of 291.0 pounds. Weights should continue to decline as summer moves closer.	3)	Hog futures have increased on technical trade and the anticipation of higher pork prices. Cash and cutouts have not been supportive.
4)	The October and later hog futures contracts have chart gaps above the market that may be filled.	4)	The weekly hog weights averaged 291.0 pounds and are 3.0 pounds higher than a year ago.

Wednesday Closing Livestock Market Update - Contracts Close Higher Again

GENERAL COMMENTS:

The livestock complex was again able to close fully higher thanks to the ample support from traders as bullish tones continue to take centerstage for the livestock markets. Some bids developed in the fed cash cattle market, but no substantial trade developed. May corn is up 3 cents per bushel and May soybean meal is up $2.50. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 584.20 points.

LIVE CATTLE:

It was a prosperous day for the live cattle complex as the nearby contracts ran anywhere from $1 to $2 higher, but all the contracts successfully rounded out stronger. June live cattle closed $2.27 higher at $202.07, August live cattle closed $2.10 higher at $198.95 and October live cattle closed $1.40 higher at $197.57. The spot June contract has inched up to the gap created by the announcement around tariffs, and some technical pressure could be burdensome around $203. But if fed cash cattle prices hold steady or even trade $1 or $2 higher, then maybe the technical pressure won't be anything traders bat an eye at. Bids were offered throughout the day in Nebraska at $212 live and $328 dressed, but no substantial volumes of cattle have traded yet. Asking prices are noted at $208 to $210 in the South, but are still not known for the North. Prices are expected to hold at least steady as feedlot managers are keenly aware that boxed beef prices could see a post Easter bump. Wednesday's slaughter is estimated at 123,000 head -- steady with a week ago and 1,000 head less than a year ago.

Boxed beef prices are delayed because of packer submission issues.

THURSDAY'S CATTLE CALL: Steady. Feedlot managers won't likely let cattle trade lower this week as they know that demand should only begin to increase as spring temperatures get warmer, more anxious consumers become to pull out their grill and enjoy prime grilling season.

FEEDER CATTLE:

The feeder cattle complex ran higher through Wednesday's close as the market was well supported again by traders and is seeing phenomenal support fundamentally from the stronger sales in the countryside. May feeders closed $1.87 higher at $284.40, August feeders closed $1.20 higher at $289.45 and September feeders closed $1.15 higher at $288.62. Do take note that on Thursday, the monthly Cattle on Feed report will be shared, and placements are expected to be a bit of a wild card. At Kingsville Livestock Auction in Kingsville, Missouri compared to last week, steer calves under 600 pounds gained back all the losses from last week and then some even sold sharply higher. Heifer calves traded $5 to $20 higher and yearling heifers sold steady to $4 higher. The tariff fears have eased and the markets have rebounded, apparently injecting plenty of confidence back into the cattle market with cash calf and feeder prices back to all-time highs in the countryside. Slaughter cows sold steady to $2 higher, and bulls $2 to $5 higher. Feeder cattle supply over 600 pounds was 68%. The CME feeder cattle index 4/15/2025: down $0.04, $288.03.

LEAN HOGS:

The lean hog complex had a tremendous day as the market was able to rally $1 to $2 higher, which pushed the spot contract to the highest price point it's traded at in the last two weeks. If the market is able to hold or sustain this price point, that will be a feat as technical pressure has been problematic since the middle of February. June lean hogs closed $2.27 higher at $202.07, August lean hogs closed $2.10 higher at $198.95 and October lean hogs closed $1.40 higher at $197.57. Hog prices closed higher on the Daily Direct Afternoon Hog Report, up $0.38 with a weighted average price of $86.22 on 8,937 head. Pork cutout values are not available at this time because of packer submission issues. Wednesday's slaughter is estimated at 488,000 head -- 1,000 head more than a week ago and 2,000 head more than a year ago. The CME lean hog index 4/14/2025: down $0.63, $85.37.

THURSDAY'S HOG CALL: Lower. At this point, it's likely that packers have bought the vast majority of their cash needs for the week.

Wednesday Midday Livestock Market Update - Traders Push Contracts Higher

GENERAL COMMENTS:

It's another fruitful day for the livestock complex as traders continue to help encourage stronger trade. A single bid of $328 has surfaced in Nebraska, but otherwise the cash cattle market hasn't seen any developments yet. May corn is up 1 3/4 cents per bushel and May soybean meal is up $1.20. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 8.58 points.

LIVE CATTLE:

The live cattle complex is also trading higher as traders continue to capitalize on the opportunity to recover some of the lost position, which was quickly eroded away from the market amid the tariff announcements. June live cattle are up $1.87 at $201.67, August live cattle are up $1.55 at $198.40 and October live cattle are up $1.12 at $197.30. The further the market can trade away from its 40-day moving average, the more comfortable traders seem to be of the technical turmoil that plagued the market amid external noise and chaos is dwindling for the time being. The cash cattle complex remains quiet with no trade having developed yet, but a region bid has been noted in Nebraska at $328. Asking prices remain firm in the South at $208, but are still not known for Northern dressed cattle. It's assumed that prices will remain at least steady this week as the market is somewhat expecting a post Easter bounce for boxed beef prices.

Boxed beef prices are lower: choice down $1.37 ($334.06) and select down $0.45 ($314.79) with a movement of 100 loads (75.52 loads of choice, 13.41 loads of select, 3.91 loads of trim and 7.08 loads of ground beef).

FEEDER CATTLE:

The feeder cattle complex is actively moving and shaking as traders remain eager to continue to capitalize on the bullish energy that's again resurfaced. May feeders are up $2.00 at $284.52, August feeders are up $1.37 at $289.62 and September feeders are up $1.25 at $288.72. With today's strong move, traders have completely filled in the gap that was made last week in the May contract.

LEAN HOGS:

The lean hog complex is trading the highest of the livestock contracts this morning as support is plentiful both on the market's technical and fundamental sides. June lean hogs are up $2.62 at $97.80, July lean hogs are up $2.45 at $97.72 and August lean hogs are up $2.02 at $95.95. Helping prop up today's pork cutout value was the healthy $6.17 jump in the rib, but both the ham and the belly's gain above $1 helped too.

The projected lean hog index for 4/15/2025 is down $0.28 at $85.09, and the actual index for 4/14/2025 is down $0.63 at $85.37. Hog prices on the Daily Direct Morning Hog Report are up $1.73 with a weighted average price of $86.40, ranging from $80 to $89 on 6,593 head and a five-day rolling average of $85.13. Pork cutouts total 168.80 loads with 143.74 loads of trim and $25.06 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: up $0.89, $92.62.

Wednesday Morning Livestock Market Update - Traders Optimistic About Demand

GENERAL COMMENTS:

Cattle futures had a third consecutive day of strength Tuesday as short-covering and new buying interest took place. Traders have turned more optimistic over continued demand after the negative impact of increased tariffs had been digested. Traders feel international demand may not be affected much for the time being. The market may trade mixed Wednesday as traders begin to position themselves ahead of the Cattle on Feed report that will be released Thursday. The average estimate for on-feed numbers on April 1 is 98.3% of a year ago. Placements in March are estimated at 103.7% with marketings at 100.7%. The expectation for the increase in placements is due to analysts comparing this year to the low placements of March 2024. Boxed beef prices were lower Tuesday with choice down $0.20 and select down $0.61. The May and August feeder cattle contracts closed their gap on Tuesday, with later contracts not far from accomplishing the task.

Hogs were able to extend minor gains Tuesday, except for the July contract. Packers were aggressive as they purchased 7,837 head and bid an average of $3.85 higher to obtain them. Pork cutouts did not fare as well, with a decline of $1.05. It seems rare lately that both cash and cutouts can move higher in tandem. This choppiness is what is limiting the upside price potential. Slaughter continues to remain strong, indicating demand is good and packers need to satisfy that demand. Cash is expected to be higher Wednesday as packers will purchase more aggressively ahead of the Easter weekend.

	BULL SIDE		BEAR SIDE
1)	Live cattle futures have chart gaps above the market that need to be filled. Gaps are generally filled during the life of the contract.	1)	Feeder cattle futures left chart gaps below the market in recent days. These gaps may be filled ahead of the Cattle on Feed report and the extended weekend.
2)	Traders feel both domestic and international beef demand may remain strong. Fears of a recession have subsided for the time being.	2)	Cash is expected to be no better than steady this week, with a possibility of lower prices.
3)	Hog futures have made an impressive rebound from the lows as traders digested the tariff news and futures corrected from being oversold.	3)	Hog futures have corrected from being oversold and are now somewhat in line with cash. This may leave the upside price potential limited.
4)	Packers should be active buyers Wednesday at higher prices as they purchase more hogs to complete most of their needs for the week.	4)	Hog futures have regained recent losses and closed chart gaps. Futures may develop a sideways pattern.

Tuesday Closing Livestock Market Update - Bullish Sentiment Continues to Help Complex Trade Higher

GENERAL COMMENTS:

The livestock complex closed mostly higher on Tuesday afternoon as a bullish sediment continues to be the theme of the marketplace. Still no cash cattle trade developed, but packer interest should improve by Wednesday. May corn is down 3 3/4 cents per bushel and May soybean meal is down $2.90. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 68.95 points.

LIVE CATTLE:

The live cattle complex was also able to round out the day higher as traders see the opportunity to advance the complex amid the bullish tone in which has again surfaced in the livestock complex. June live cattle closed $0.72 higher at $199.80, August live cattle closed $1.02 higher at $196.85 and October live cattle closed $1.10 higher at $196.17. The spot June contract successfully closed above its 40-day moving average, which continues to signal strong technical support. The cash cattle complex was quiet throughout Tuesday's trade as packers continue to hope that they'll be able to keep prices from trading higher. However, feedlot managers are hopeful that the possibility of a post-Easter beef demand bump could potentially allow prices to trade steady this week. Asking prices are firm in the South at $208 but have not yet been established in the North. Some early bids could begin to develop on Wednesday, but it's just as likely that trade could be totally delayed until Thursday. 

Tuesday's slaughter is estimated at 122,000 head -- steady with a week ago and 2,000 head less than a year ago.

Boxed beef prices closed lower: choice down $0.20 ($335.43) and select down $0.61 ($315.24) with a movement of 147 loads (104.57 loads of choice, 17.55 loads of select, 9.33 loads of trim and 15.55 loads of ground beef).

WEDNESDAY'S CATTLE CALL: Steady. Packers have enough supply built up around them to likely keep prices from trading higher this week, but feedlot managers will likely dig their heels in the ground and demand prices are at least steady.

FEEDER CATTLE:

The feeder cattle complex triumphed the day as the market not only closed higher, but it also continued to fill in the gap made a week ago when news broke about tariffs. A bullish mindset has taken root in the marketplace and the feeder cattle complex was bold in its upward push as the complex is finding ample fundamental support in the form of strong feeder cattle sales in the countryside. May feeders closed $1.57 higher at $282.52, August feeders closed $2.10 higher at $288.25 and September feeders closed $2.05 higher at $287.47. At Joplin Regional Stockyards in Carthage, Missouri, compared to last week, feeder steers under 675 pounds sold $15.00 to $30.00 higher with heavier weights selling $5.00 to $10.00 higher. Feeder heifers under 625 pounds sold $15.00 to $30.00 higher with heavier weights selling $5.00 to $15.00 higher. Feeder cattle supply over 600 pounds was 55%. The CME feeder cattle index 4/14/2025: up $0.91, $288.07.

LEAN HOGS:

The lean hog complex also had a positive day as most of its contracts were able to close higher too. June lean hogs closed $0.05 higher at $95.17, July lean hogs closed $0.02 lower at $95.47 and August lean hogs closed $0.20 higher at $93.92. Pork cutouts values didn't lend any support as the carcass price closed lower, which was mainly to blame because of the $626 decline in the belly. Hog prices closed higher on the Daily Direct Afternoon Hog Report, up $3.85 with a weighted average price of $85.84 on 7,837 head. Pork cutouts totaled 339.09 loads with 302.82 loads of pork cuts and 36.26 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: down $1.05, $91.73. Tuesday's slaughter is estimated at 487,000 head -- 1,000 head less than a week ago and 5,000 head more than a year ago. The CME lean hog index 4/11/2025: down $0.86, $86.00.

WEDNESDAY'S HOG CALL: Steady/somewhat lower. Given that pork cutout values are tick lower and that packers bought a sizeable volume today, prices will likely be steady at best on Wednesday.

Tuesday Midday Livestock Market Summary - Traders Continue to Help Push Contracts Higher

GENERAL COMMENTS:

The livestock complex is continuing to trade higher as ample trader interest is helping push the contracts higher again today. Still no cash cattle trade has developed, but some early bids could develop potentially this afternoon. May corn is down 4 cents per bushel and May soybean meal is down $4.00. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 99.88 points.

LIVE CATTLE:

The live cattle complex is continuing to trade higher as the market continues to feel well supported by ample trader interest, strong trade throughout the equity markets and day-by-day the continued feeling that some of the pressure from the announcement of tariffs is sitting on the backburner now. April live cattle are up $0.60 at $204.55, June live cattle are up $0.45 at $199.52 and August live cattle are up $0.85 at $196.67. It's most interesting this morning to note that the spot June contract is trading back above the market's 40-day moving average, which again, will continue to be a threshold to monitor. Still no developments have surfaced in the fed cash cattle market, but some early bids could surface as early as this afternoon due to the holiday-shortened week. Packers cut throughput dramatically last week, so it's assumed that prices will trade steady/somewhat lower again this week.

Boxed beef prices are mixed: choice down $0.94 ($334.69) and select down $0.22 ($316.07) with a movement of 93 loads (68.41 loads of choice, 9.95 loads of select, 3.99 loads of trim and 11.05 loads of ground beef).

FEEDER CATTLE:

The feeder cattle complex is continuing to trade higher, not fearful of filling in the gap that was created when tariffs were brought to the forefront of everyone's mind a little over a week ago. May feeders are up $1.20 at $282.15, August feeders are up $1.87 at $288.02 and September feeders are up $1.80 at $287.22. Demand has seemed to improve again this week for feeder cattle in the countryside as buyers are pleased to see the futures complex again finding ease in the marketplace.

LEAN HOGS:

The lean hog complex is trading mostly steady to slightly lower in some of the nearby contracts, but slightly higher in some of the deferred months. Traders seem to be holding steady in the spot and nearby contracts, as pork cutout values are a little lower this morning. And as some resistance pressure is being felt in the June lean hog contract, as traders near the point in which prices fell upon the tariff announcement. If demand happens to prevail later this week at the meat counter, then there's a chance that traders may deem enough support in the market to justify facing resistance pressure.

The projected lean hog index for 4/14/2025 is down $0.63 with a weighted average price of $85.37, and the actual index for 4/11/2025 is down $0.86 with a weighted average price of $86.00. Hog prices are higher on the Daily Direct Morning Hog report, up $1.17 with a weighted average price of $84.67, ranging from $76.00 to $86.00 on 3,143 head and a five-day rolling average of $84.28. Pork cutouts total 190.99 loads with 169.50 loads of pork cuts and 21.49 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: down $0.16, $92.62.

Tuesday Morning Livestock Market Update - Futures Have Corrected and May Stabilize

GENERAL COMMENTS:

Cattle futures extended their gains Monday as traders assessed the potential impact of tariffs and refocused on the tight cattle supplies. However, the uncertainty in the market over demand may limit the upside potential near term. Packers have been able to purchase several cattle for deferred delivery, which may limit their aggressiveness this week. It is a holiday-shortened week for trading with the commodity markets closed on Good Friday. This may result in the cash cattle trade earlier than usual. Traders also have the Cattle on Feed report to prepare for, which will be released after the close on Thursday. Traders may position themselves ahead of the report and the extended holiday weekend. Boxed beef prices were higher with choice up $1.41 and select up $1.89. Feeder cattle remain in strong demand in the countryside. Feedlots expect high beef prices to continue.

Hog futures posted nice gains in nearby months despite packers not being aggressive in the cash market. The midday report showed cash was higher, but the result was a decline of $1.11 on the National Daily Direct Afternoon Hog report. Packers are expected to be aggressive Tuesday as they will purchase supplies ahead of the holiday weekend and to maintain the strong slaughter pace. Pork cutouts increased $0.82 on good movement. The May, June, and July contracts closed their chart gaps, regaining the losses due to the escalation of tariffs with China.

	BULL SIDE		BEAR SIDE
1)	The equity markets seem to have settled down after last week's volatility. Traders are turning their focus back on cattle fundamentals.	1)	Cash cattle are expected to trade lower again this week, as packers were able to purchase cattle for deferred delivery, limiting their needs this week.
2)	The June and later live cattle and all the feeder cattle contracts have chart gaps above the market that could be filled sooner rather than later.	2)	The upcoming Cattle on Feed report may limit further upside price potential, as there is always uncertainty ahead of a report.
3)	Even though cash hog prices have declined, the slaughter pace remains strong as packers need hogs to fulfill demand. This keeps hogs from backing up in the country.	3)	Cash hogs have declined substantially, with the weighted average price on Monday down to $81.99. Packers do not need to be aggressive, as sufficient hogs are available to the market.
	Hog futures have regained the losses from the announcement of increased tariffs on China and the retaliatory tariffs China put on U.S. goods. The impact may not be as great as initially perceived.	4)	Hog futures may have difficulty moving much higher after closing the chart gaps in the nearby months.

Monday Closing Livestock Market Update - Active Trader Support Allows Contracts to Close Higher

GENERAL COMMENTS:

The livestock complex started the week out on a strong note as all three of the markets closed higher Monday afternoon thanks to the added support from traders. It will be an irregular week as the market will be closed on Friday, April 18, for Good Friday, which means that the monthly Cattle on Feed report will be released on Thursday, April 17. It's also likely that the cash cattle market will trade earlier this week too. May corn is down 5 1/4 cents per bushel and May soybean meal is down $2.50. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 312.08 points.

LIVE CATTLE:

It was an impressive day for the live cattle complex. The market was thrilled to again have the support of traders as the market turmoil in which the complex endured last week continues to be a matter that the market seems to be moving past. April live cattle closed $1.47 higher at $203.95, June live cattle closed $2.27 higher at $199.07 and August live cattle closed $1.97 higher at $195.82. It was especially impressive that the spot June contract was indeed able to close above its 40-day moving average, which will continue to be a threshold that the market needs to continue to monitor throughout the week. New showlists appear to be mixed, higher in Nebraska/Colorado, somewhat higher in Kansas, but lower in Texas. Monday's slaughter is estimated at 112,000 head -- 8,000 head more than a week ago and 7,000 head less than a year ago.

Last week, Southern live cattle traded at $204, which is $4 lower than the previous week's weighted average and Northern dressed cattle traded at mostly $328, which is $9 lower than the previous week's weighted average. Last week's negotiated cash cattle trade totaled 52,705 head. Of that 76% (40,118 head) were committed to the nearby delivery while the remaining 24% (12,587 head) were committed to the deferred delivery.

Boxed beef prices are higher: choice up $1.41 ($335.63) and select up $1.89 ($315.85) with a movement of 81 loads (54.71 loads of choice, 9.82 loads of select, 4.63 loads of trim and 11.70 loads of ground beef).

TUESDAY'S CATTLE CALL: Lower. Given that packers have been able to build up some supply in recent weeks, it's likely that prices will be lower again this week considering it's a holiday shortened week for Easter.

FEEDER CATTLE:

The feeder cattle complex charged onward and forward all throughout Monday's trade as the market was well supported by traders. The spot May contract came up to the resistance level made upon the announcement of additional tariffs. But if external support (especially in the form of strong equity markets remains evident throughout the remainder of the week) there's a chance that traders could attempt to take on that resistance and begin to fill in the chart gap. May feeders closed $2.25 higher at $280.95, August feeders closed $2.47 higher at $286.15 and September feeders closed $2.20 higher at $285.42. At Oklahoma National Stockyards in Oklahoma City, Oklahoma compared to last week there were significantly more cattle sold and feeder steers weighing over 800 pounds traded $4 to $10 higher while steers under 800 pounds traded $20 to $25 higher. Feeder heifers sold $10 to $20 higher. Steer calves sold $4 to $10 higher and heifer calves traded $20 to $30 stronger. Feeder cattle supply over 600 pounds was 62%. The CME feeder cattle index 4/11/2025: up $1.03, $287.16.

LEAN HOGS:

The lean hog complex had another successful day as the contracts were all able to close higher thanks to the added support from traders and to the external help of strong equity markets. June lean hogs closed $1.80 higher at $95.12, July lean hogs closed $1.90 higher at $95.50 and August lean hogs closed $1.82 higher at $93.72. It was encouraging that the pork cutout values closed higher, but that's not to say wild price swings weren't seen as the belly closed $6.86 higher, but the rib dropped $7.57 lower. Hog prices closed lower on the Daily Direct Afternoon Hog Report, down $1.11 with a weighted average price of $81.99 on 5,978 head. Pork cutouts totaled 235.01 loads with 199.74 loads of pork cuts and 35.27 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: up $0.82, $92.78. Monday's slaughter is estimated at 487,000 head -- 1,000 head less than a week ago and 5,000 head more than a year ago. The CME lean hog index 4/10/2025: down $0.81, $86.86.

TUESDAY'S HOG CALL: Higher. Given that prices were slightly lower today, it's likely that packers will be more aggressive on Tuesday and that prices could inch higher.

Monday Midday Livestock Market Summary - Traders Push Contracts Higher

GENERAL COMMENTS:

The livestock complex has been blessed with ample support Monday morning, which has allowed the contracts to thrive and trade higher into Monday's noon hour. As long as the equity market continues to show a positive direction, it's likely the livestock complex will continue to trend higher. May corn is down 4 1/2 cents per bushel and May soybean meal is down $3.70. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 146.61 points

LIVE CATTLE:

The livestock complex is continuing to rally following the boost of support the market received late last week. April live cattle are up $1.12 at $203.60, June live cattle are up $1.52 at $198.32, and August live cattle are up $1.27 at $195.12. The spot June contract even broke above its 40-day moving average, which will be a threshold we need to monitor not only throughout the rest of the day, but likely through the week's end. No bids or asking prices have surfaced in the cash cattle market, but trade will likely develop earlier this week as the market will be closed on Friday for Good Friday ahead of Easter Sunday.

Last week Southern live cattle traded at $204 which is $4.00 lower than the previous week's weighted average and Northern dressed cattle traded at mostly $328 which is $9.00 lower than the previous week's weighted average. Last week's negotiated cash cattle trade totaled 52,705 head. Of that 76% (40,118 head) were committed to the nearby delivery while the remaining 24% (12,587 head) were committed to the deferred delivery.

Boxed beef prices are higher: choice up $1.39 ($335.61) and select up $1.22 ($315.18) with a movement of 51 loads (36.58 loads of choice, 4.26 loads of select, 3.17 loads of trim and 6.59 loads of ground beef).

FEEDER CATTLE:

The live cattle complex may be trading higher but the feeder cattle contracts are trading in a bolder manner as traders push the feeder cattle contracts $1.00 to $2.00 higher with ease. April feeders are up $2.42 at $287.55, May feeders are up $2.05 at $280.67, and August feeders are up $2.47 at $286.15. Traders are close to reaching the gap that was created when the tariff news broke, which could be a bit of a technical hurdle; but at this point traders don't seem concerned about the pressure that may be ahead for the market.

LEAN HOGS:

The lean hog complex is also trading higher as it continues to see tremendous trader support which has actually helped the spot June contract fill in the gap made two weeks ago when news broke regarding tariffs. June lean hogs are up $1.72 at $95.05, July lean hogs are up $1.92 at $95.52, and August lean hogs are up $1.80 at $93.70. Monday's move has been solely a technical decision as there hasn't been enough time for traders to see what's developing fundamentally yet. As long as traders continue to see broad support from external factors such as the equity markets, this higher trend should be sustainable through the day's close.

The projected CME Lean Hog Index for 4/11/2025 is down $0.86 at $86.00 and the actual index for 4/10/2025 is down $0.81 at $86.86. Hog prices are higher on the Daily Direct Morning Hog Report, up $0.46 with a weighted average price of $83.50, ranging from $76.00 to $85.00 on 1,883 head and a five-day rolling average of $86.32. Pork cutouts total 131.84 loads with 117.49 loads of pork cuts and 14.35 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: up $2.44, $94.40.

Monday Morning Livestock Market Update - Futures May Trade Cautiously Higher

GENERAL COMMENTS:

Cattle futures were higher Friday as traders seem to be looking at the equity markets for direction and trading accordingly. There is no question cattle supplies are low and the nation's herd is not rebuilding anytime soon. However, the current concern over the impact of tariffs has created substantial uncertainty over ongoing demand. International demand may slow and recession fears are evident. Slaughter slowed noticeably this week, but the reason for the decline is uncertain. Boxed beef prices struggled last week, with Friday showing choice down $0.07 and select down $1.00. Cash did not hold well last week with cash cattle anywhere from $4.00 to $9.00 lower. The Commitments of Traders report showed fund traders reducing their long live cattle futures position by 21,509 contracts to a net-long of 117,617. They were net sellers of 4,961 feeder cattle contracts, reducing their net-long position to 26,951.

Hog futures closed higher on the week in all contracts except the nearby April. Monday is the last day to trade the April contract and May will become the lead month. Futures closed higher as traders felt confident the market may have established support. Cash struggled most of the week, with Friday showing a decline of $2.57 on the National Daily Direct Afternoon report. This moved the weighted average down to $83.10. Pork cutouts were higher, posting a gain of $2.26. That may not be sufficient to provide further support under the market unless we can see increased demand and packers become more aggressive. The Commitments of Traders report showed the fund traders reducing their futures position in hogs by 18,239 contracts to a net-long position of 33,997.

	BULL SIDE		BEAR SIDE
1)	The stock market is expected to start higher Monday morning as the Dow futures are trading higher in the overnight session. Cattle futures have been following the stock market.	1)	Cattle slaughter was significantly lower last week and may be an indication of reduced demand both domestically and internationally.
2)	Cattle futures may be building support based on last week's movement. Traders may support the market to begin the week.	2)	Further cash weakness could take place again this week ahead of the Easter weekend.
3)	Hog futures closed higher for the week as the market corrected from being oversold, and traders became more confident of better demand.	3)	The weakness of cash last week may be difficult to overcome, as packers have been able to buy what they needed without difficulty.
	There is a chart gap in hog futures above the market from a week ago that is not much higher and should be filled soon.	4)	There is a sufficient supply of hogs at higher weights. Packers do not need to chase the market higher to obtain the supply they need.

Friday Closing Livestock Market Update - Traders Push Contracts Higher

GENERAL COMMENTS:

Thankfully, the livestock contracts were able to round out the week on a stronger note following the market turmoil that sent the contracts trading sharply lower late last week and early this week regarding tariffs. The cash cattle market could see a little more trade develop later this afternoon as the week's movement has been thin, but the week's prices are likely established at this point. May corn is up 7 1/4 cents per bushel and May soybean meal is up $1.70. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 659.72 points.

From Friday to Friday, livestock futures scored the following changes: April live cattle down $0.15, June live cattle down $1.40; April feeder cattle up $5.75, May feeder cattle up $3.82; April lean hogs down $1.95, June lean hogs up $1.78; May corn up $0.30, July corn up $0.30

LIVE CATTLE:

The live cattle complex was thankfully able to maintain its higher position through Friday's end, but the spot June contract still wasn't able to conquer its 40-day moving average ahead of the weekend. Traders likely saw pushing the spot contract above that threshold as an overstepping move as boxed beef prices softened this past week, and so did cash prices. Throughout the week, Southern live cattle traded at $204, which is $4.00 lower than last week's weighted average and Northern dressed cattle traded at mostly $328, which is $9.00 lower than last week's weighted average. April live cattle closed $1.62 higher at $202.47, June live cattle closed $1.60 higher at $196.80 and August live cattle closed $1.65 higher at $193.85. 

Friday's slaughter is estimated at 96,000 head -- 13,000 head less than a week ago and 10,000 head less than a year ago. Saturday's slaughter is projected to be around 5,000 head. The week's total slaughter is estimated at 564,000 head -- down 27,000 head compared to a week ago and 34,000 head less than a year ago.

Boxed beef prices closed lower: choice down $0.07 ($334.22) and select down $1.00 ($313.96) with a movement of 102 loads (66.95 loads of choice, 8.81 loads of select, 11.97 loads of trim and 14.57 loads of ground beef).

MONDAY'S CATTLE CALL: Lower. Given the slight regression in boxed beef prices, it's not likely that packers are going to chase the cash market aggressively enough to push cash prices higher anytime soon.

FEEDER CATTLE:

The feeder cattle complex didn't bat an eye about cashing out Friday's market for all that it was worth. Traders ambitiously pushed the feeder cattle contracts anywhere from $2.00 to $3.00 higher as they saw an opportunity to regain some of what the market lost late last week. April feeders closed $2.40 higher at $285.17, May feeders closed $3.40 higher at $278.70 and August feeders closed $3.75 higher at $283.67. The Oklahoma Weekly Cattle Auction Summary shared that compared to last week, feeder steer and steer calves traded $8.00 to $13.00 lower. Feeder heifers sold $6.00 to $11.00 lower, but heifer calves traded $8.00 to $13.00 lower. Slaughter cows sold steady to $2.00 lower, but slaughter bulls traded $6.00 higher. It was noted that sale receipts were noticeably lighter this week, which was likely because of the market turmoil amid the tariff disputes. The CME feeder cattle index 4/10/2025: down $1.16, $286.13.

LEAN HOGS:

The lean hog contracts were able to rally through Friday's end thanks to the stability that the futures complex was able to muster as traders gained some technical footing in the marketplace this past week. The spot June contract will likely face some pressure next week as the market's nearing its resistance level at $94.00, but if support prevails, anything could happen. June lean hogs closed $0.15 higher at $93.32, July lean hogs closed $0.47 higher at $93.60 and August lean hogs closed $0.47 higher at $91.90. Hog prices closed lower on the Daily Direct Afternoon Hog Report, down $2.57 with a weighted average price of $83.10 on 3,371 head. Pork cutouts total 430.92 loads, with 387.91 loads of pork cuts and 43.00 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: up $2.26, $91.96. Friday's slaughter is estimated at 486,000 head -- 6,000 head more than a week ago and 5,000 head more than a year ago. Saturday's slaughter is projected to be around 55,000 head. The CME lean hog index 4/9/2025: down $0.33, $87.67.

MONDAY'S HOG CALL: Steady. Packers will likely want to see what the week's demand is going to amount to before they buy too aggressively in the cash market.

Friday Midday Livestock Market Summary - Traders Push Contracts Higher

GENERAL COMMENTS:

The livestock complex is pleasantly trading higher into Friday's noon hour as the market seems less threatened by tariff chatter today. Some more light cash cattle trade has developed in Texas, but no more Northern sales have occurred yet although more trade is expected to develop ahead of the week's end. May corn is up 5 3/4 cents per bushel and May soybean meal is up $2.70. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 153.54 points.

LIVE CATTLE:

The live cattle complex is back to breathing somewhat normally as the market is trading mildly higher. As you can see when you look at all the live cattle contracts, traders are just mildly supporting the nearby contracts as more trade chatter will affect those months more than the deferred contracts that are trading up to $2.50 higher. April live cattle are up $0.82 at $201.67, June live cattle are up $1.02 at $196.22 and August live cattle are up $1.35 at $193.55. There's been more trade this morning in the South at $204 which is $4.00 lower than last week's weighted average and steady with Thursday's trade. No new developments have surfaced in the North, but a bid of $208 is currently on the table in Nebraska. Yesterday some dressed cattle traded in the North at $328 which is $9.00 lower than last week's weighted average. More trade is expected to develop ahead of the day's close.

Boxed beef prices are mixed: choice up $0.83 ($335.12) and select down $0.44 ($314.52) with a movement of 70 loads (45.43 loads of choice, 5.12 loads of select, 8.09 loads of trim and 11.66 loads of ground beef).

FEEDER CATTLE:

The feeder cattle complex is the leader of today's rally as its contracts are confidently trading $1.00 to $2.00 higher. April feeders are up $1.35 at $284.12, May feeders are up $2.35 at $277.60 and August feeders are up $2.87 at $282.80. The market is again up against its 40-day moving average which could pose some technical pressure ahead of today's end.

LEAN HOGS:

Continuing to remain confident in the technical position it possesses, the lean hog contracts are yet again inching their way higher. June lean hogs are up $0.40 at $93.57, July lean hogs are up $0.80 at $93.92 and August lean hogs are up $0.95 at $92.37. The market could face some pressure around the $94.00 mark, but it's not likely that traders take on that challenge ahead of today's close even though pork cutout values are higher and offering some additional support.

The projected lean hog index for 4/10/2025 is down $0.81 at $86.86, and the actual index for 4/9/2025 is down $0.33 at $87.67. Hog prices are lower on the Daily Direct Morning Hog Report, down $2.70 with a weighted average price of $83.04, ranging from $78.00 to $85.00 on 2,555 head and a five-day rolling average of $86.72. Pork cutouts total 285.69 loads with 265.32 loads of pork cuts and 20.37 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: up $1.89, $91.59.

Friday Morning Livestock Market Update - Cattle Futures Follow the Stock Market

GENERAL COMMENTS:

Cattle followed the weakness of the stock market Thursday with June live cattle showing the greatest loss. The concern over a recession and the potential slowing of demand may keep upside price potential limited. Of course, the tariff situation can change quickly, and both domestic and international demand remain strong. The April live cattle contract is substantially below cash, showing trader concerns over cattle prices. Weekly export sales increased by 28% from the previous week to 11,900 metric tons (mt). Some light cash cattle trade took place Thursday at mixed prices, leaving traders guessing as to what the bulk of trading will show. Packers will not be willing to step up and pay more due to steady to weaker boxed beef prices seen this week. Boxed beef prices were lower on Thursday, with choice down $3.57 and select down $5.65.

Hogs futures were surprisingly strong Thursday despite the weakness of cash and cutouts this week. It seems technical traders are intent on closing the chart gaps that remain from last week. The market also needed to correct from the oversold condition. This combination provided traders with a reason to buy into the market. Cash was weaker on Thursday with the National Daily Direct Afternoon report down $0.41. Packers may have purchased what they need for the week, but cash often trades higher on Friday as packers finalize their needs. Pork cutouts showed further weakness as the average price declined $1.06. Weekly export sales were less than half of the previous week at 23,900 mt. This will be watched with interest over the next few weeks as the trade war with China continues.

	BULL SIDE		BEAR SIDE
1)	Cattle futures are following the stock market and overnight trade shows higher stock futures. This should provide support.	1)	Concern over a recession is weighing on the cattle market. Beef prices are high and consumers may reduce consumption.
	A few cash cattle traded $1.00 higher on Thursday. Packers may need cattle and steady to higher prices could unfold.	2)	Some light cash trade took place Thursday in the South at $4.00 lower than last week. This may have set the stage for today.
3)	The hog market is oversold. Technical traders may anticipate that the chart gaps remaining from last week may be closed.	3)	Hog weights continue to increase with an average of 292 pounds last week, up 0.6 pounds from the previous week. This is 4.0 pounds higher than a year ago.
4)	Hog slaughter remains higher, indicating demand remains strong. Pork is moving well in the country, which should keep supply from backing up.	4)	Both cash hogs and cutouts have been weaker this week. This may limit the upside price potential of futures.

Thursday Closing Livestock Market Update - Light Cash Cattle Sales Begin to Develop at Mixed Prices

GENERAL COMMENTS:

It was another pressured day for the cattle complex as traders remain flustered about trade dealings, but the lean hog complex was still able to trade higher. Some light cash cattle trade developed in the North $1 higher while Southern live cattle sales were $4 lower. May corn is up 9 cents per bushel and May soybean meal is up $3.40. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 1,014.79 points.

Thursday's export report shared that beef net sales of 11,900 mt for 2025 were up 28% from the previous week and 14% from the prior 4-week average. The three primary buyers were Japan (3,300 mt), Mexico (1,100 mt) and Taiwan (1,000 mt). Pork net sales of 23,900 mt for 2025 were down 55% from the previous week and 23% from the prior 4-week average. The three largest buyers were Mexico (8,900 mt), Japan (3,600 mt) and South Korea (3,200 mt).

LIVE CATTLE:

It was another thrashing day for the live cattle complex as continued tariff changes pressured the futures complex and once again sent traders panicking, which consequently pushed the contracts lower. April live cattle closed $1.95 lower at $200.85, June live cattle closed $3.17 lower at $195.20 and August live cattle closed $2.80 lower at $192.20. Until trade chatter settles down, unfortunately this type of heightened technical turmoil is expected to continue. There has been some light trade reported in the North at $328, which is $1 higher than last week's weighted average. At the same time, some Southern sales have been marked in Texas at $204, which is $4 lower than last week's weighted average. Asking prices in the South remain firm at $208 to $210. It was also disappointing to note that the lower end of boxed beef prices has softened slightly this week. Thursday's slaughter is estimated at 114,000 head -- 7,000 head less than a week ago and 9,000 head less than a year ago.

Thursday's WASDE report shared that beef production for 2025 was increased by 15 million pounds as heavier carcass weights and an increase in bull and cow slaughter speeds are more than offsetting the reduction in fed cattle slaughter. The quarterly steer price projection portion of the report was especially interesting as steer prices in the second quarter are now expected to average $204, which is $6 more than last month's estimate. Steer prices in the third quarter are expected to average $206, which is $8 more than last month's estimate. And steer prices in the fourth quarter of 2025 are expected to average $207, which is $7 higher than last month's projection. 2025 beef imports were reduced by 15 million pounds, and 2025 beef exports were reduced by 135 million pounds.

Boxed beef prices closed lower: choice down $3.57 ($334.29) and select down $5.65 ($314.96) with a movement of 113 loads (71.66 loads of choice, 21.77 loads of select, 7.49 loads of trim and 12.04 loads of ground beef).

FRIDAY'S CATTLE CALL: Steady. Given that some light trade has now developed, it's likely that the week's prices are set.

FEEDER CATTLE:

The feeder cattle complex fell subject to the same pressure in which the live cattle market caved to. And without the live cattle complex lending any additional support, the feeder cattle contracts didn't have much of a leg to stand on when it came to the market's desire to trade higher. Again, the only thing that seemed to be on anyone's mind was the chaotic nature of trade conversations. April feeders closed $0.97 lower at $282.77, May feeders closed $2.90 lower at $275.30 and August feeders closed $3.32 lower at $279.92. At La Junta Livestock Commission in La Junta, Colorado, compared to their last sale feeder steers sold $5 to $7 higher. Feeder heifers under 550 pounds sold $2 to $3 higher with instances of sharply higher except those weighing more than 550 pounds which traded $1 to $3 lower. Feeder cattle supply over 600 pounds was 54%. The CME feeder cattle index 4/9/2025: down $3.32, $287.29.

LEAN HOGS:

I'm rather surprised that the lean hog complex was able to maintain its higher position through the day's close. The day's export report wasn't favorable to the complex nor was the monthly WASDE report. However, traders have seemed to find some technical footing in the marketplace, which has allowed them to gain some position over the last two days. June lean hogs closed $1.47 higher at $93.17, July lean hogs closed $1.85 higher at $93.12 and August lean hogs closed $2.10 higher at $91.42. Hog prices closed lower on the Daily Direct Afternoon Hog Report, down $0.41 with a weighted average price of $85.67 on 3,332 head. Pork cutouts total 357.99 loads with 305.99 loads of pork cuts and 52.00 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: down $1.06, $89.70. Thursday's slaughter is estimated at 488,000 head -- 8,000 head more than a week ago and 5,000 head more than a year ago. The CME lean hog index 4/8/2025: down $0.16, $88.00.

Thursday's WASDE report shared unpleasant news for the hog and pork markets for 2025. Pork production for 2025 were decreased by 350 million pounds, as the latest Quarterly Hogs and Pigs report showed a reduction in the pig crop for 2024 and showed indications of lower farrowing for much of 2025. Unfortunately, weaker export demand has pushed quarterly hog prices lower throughout the year. Hog prices in the second quarter are expected to average $63, which is $2 lower than last month's estimate. Hog prices in the third quarter are expected to average $65 which is $3 lower than last month's estimate. Lastly, hog prices in the fourth quarter are expected to average $54, which is $2 lower than last month's estimate. Pork imports for 2025 fell by 10 million pounds, and pork exports for 2025 fell by 265 million pounds.

FRIDAY'S HOG CALL: Lower. It's likely that packers have secured their needs already this week in the cash hog market.

Thursday Midday Livestock Market Summary - Trade Banter Continues to Leave the Cattle Complex Unsettled

GENERAL COMMENTS:

Trade fluctuations and turbulent conditions continue to put the cattle complex on edge, but the lean hog market is rallying into Thursday's noon hour. Still no cash cattle trade has developed. May corn is up 5 3/4 cents per bushel and May soybean meal is up $1.00. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 1,716.49 points.

Thursday's export report shared that beef net sales of 11,900 mt for 2025 were up 28% from the previous week and 14% from the prior 4-week average. The three primary buyers were Japan (3,300 mt), Mexico (1,100 mt) and Taiwan (1,000 mt). Pork net sales of 23,900 mt for 2025 were down 55% from the previous week and 23% from the prior 4-week average. The three largest buyers were Mexico (8,900 mt), Japan (3,600 mt) and South Korea (3,200 mt).

LIVE CATTLE:

After rallying aggressively through Wednesday's close, the live cattle complex is back to trading lower as the market's excitement following President Trump's announcement of the pause on tariffs to most countries has faded to the back burner. The market would love to see some fundamental support arise, but none has developed yet as no cash cattle trade has surfaced. April live cattle are down at $1.20 at $201.65, June live cattle are down $2.70 at $195.75 and August live cattle are down $2.15 at $192.85. No trade has surfaced in the cash cattle market, but bids have again been renewed in Texas at $200. Asking prices remain firm in the South at $208 plus but are still not known for dressed cattle in the North. It looks like trade could be delayed until Friday.

Beef production for 2025 was increased by 15 million pounds as heavier carcass weights and an increase in bull and cow slaughter speeds are more than offsetting the reduction in fed cattle slaughter. The quarterly steer price projection portion of the report was especially interesting as steer prices in the second quarter are now expected to average $204 which is $6.00 more than last month's estimate. Steer prices in the third quarter are expected to average $206 which is $8.00 more than last month's estimate. And steer prices in the fourth quarter of 2025 are expected to average $207 which is $7.00 higher than last month's projection. 2025 beef imports were reduced by 15 million pounds, and 2025 beef exports were reduced by 135 million pounds.

Boxed beef prices are lower: choice down $2.25 ($335.61) and select down $3.30 ($317.31) with a movement of 59 loads (34.95 loads of choice, 7.76 loads of select, 6.43 loads of trim and 9.69 loads of ground beef).

FEEDER CATTLE:

The feeder cattle complex is also back to trading lower as the market continues to follow closely to the direction of the live cattle complex. Without any invigorating news or developments arising in the fed cash cattle complex, there isn't enough support in today's market to push the contracts any higher. April feeders are down $0.47 at $283.27, May feeders are down $2.10 at $276.10 and August feeders are down $2.10 at $281.15. The market is again dancing around its 40-day moving average in the spot May contract, which will continue to be a threshold the market grapples with as it now possesses some technical resistance pressure and traders aren't equipped with as much support as they'd ideally like.

LEAN HOGS:

The lean hog complex is continuing to rally, which is somewhat surprising given that the morning's export report and the WASDE report weren't fruitful. However, with the futures complex seeming to rally mildly thanks to the market having found some technical footing, traders are continuing to advance the contracts. June lean hogs are up $1.30 at $93.00, July lean hogs are up $1.67 at $92.95 and August lean hogs are up $1.62 at $90.95. The market's next resistance will be found around 94.00.

The projected lean hog index for 4/9/2025 is down $0.33 at $87.67, and the actual index for 4/8/2025 is down $0.16 at $88.00. Hog prices on the Daily Direct Morning Hog Report average $85.74, ranging from $80.00 to $88.00 on 2,321 head and a five-day rolling average of $87.57. Pork cutouts total 213.65 loads with 173.86 loads of pork cuts and 39.80 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: down $0.73, $90.03.

Thursday's WASDE report shared unpleasant news for the hog and pork markets for 2025. Pork production for 2025 was decreased by 350 million pounds as the latest Quarterly Hogs and Pigs report showed a reduction in the pig crop for 2024 and showed indications of lower farrowing for much of 2025. Unfortunately, weaker export demand has pushed quarterly hog prices lower throughout the year. Hog prices in the second quarter are expected to average $63, which is $2.00 lower than last month's estimate. Hog prices in the third quarter are expected to average $65 which is $3.00 lower than last month's estimate. And hog prices in the fourth quarter are expected to average $54 which is $2.00 lower than last month's estimate. Pork imports for 2025 fell by 10 million pounds, and pork exports for 2025 fell by 265 million pounds.

Thursday Morning Livestock Market Update - Follow-Through Strength May Be Difficult To Achieve

GENERAL COMMENTS:

The action in cattle futures Wednesday would usually be considered a technical key reversal. However, the volatility of the outside markets and the tariff situation may negate this technical action. Cattle futures initially struggled under the weight of added tariffs, only to charge higher after a 90-day pause on tariffs was announced for countries that did not place retaliatory tariffs. Traders quickly bought futures in anticipation of beef demand continuing to remain strong. Cash cattle have not yet been traded as the bids and offers are some distance apart. Boxed beef prices were lower with choice down $0.24 and select down $1.45. Weekly export sales will be released Thursday morning and are expected to be in line with last week.

Hogs came under pressure earlier Wednesday, only to turn after the announcement of a reprieve in tariffs on non-retaliating countries. New contract lows were established in August and later contracts before reversing higher. Spread trading was evident as May through October closed higher while other contracts declined. The front-month April contract closed $0.85 lower as it adjusted to remain close to cash and the index. Monday is the last trading day for the April contract. The National Daily Direct Afternoon Hog report showed cash down $0.75, pulling the average down to $86.06. Pork cutouts took a hit with values down $2.69. Dow futures show weakness overnight, indicating stocks and equities could be lower. This may impact the further strength of hog futures.

	BULL SIDE		BEAR SIDE
1)	Generally, a price reversal as seen in cattle on Wednesday is a strong technical signal and could trigger increased buying interest.	1)	Cash cattle are expected to trade lower as packers may not be willing to pay more due to export uncertainty. Feedlots may want to move cattle rather than hold only to see lower prices next week.
2)	A delay on tariffs to some countries should keep beef moving through the export market as it has been.	2)	The sharp reversal in cattle futures was the result of a reversal in the outside markets and not a fundamental change.
3)	The turnaround in hog futures after reaching or exceeding contract lows may increase traders' interest in buying futures for the long term.	3)	The escalation of a trade war with China is not friendly for pork exports. They are a large buyer of pork from the U.S.
4)	The hog market is oversold, and further short-covering may take place due to low prices.	4)	Lower cash and cutouts do not provide the support needed for traders to buy into the market aggressively. Traders see uncertainty over demand.

Wednesday Closing Livestock Market Update - President Trump's Tariff Announcement Sends the Markets Higher

GENERAL COMMENTS:

It was a true whirlwind of a day as the livestock complex was challenged earlier today with the continued turmoil of tariffs, but ahead of today's close President Trump announced that tariffs will be paused for 90 days and substantially lowered effective immediately for nearly all countries except China, which had the tariff raised to 125%. This announcement positively spurred the livestock complex higher and helped the market end the day on an unexpectedly positive note. May corn is up 5 cents per bushel and May soybean meal is up $3.50. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 2,962.86 points.

LIVE CATTLE:

The live cattle complex enjoyed the fruitful afternoon rally which was spurred on by the positive announcement that most countries' tariffs would be delayed and drastically reduced. April live cattle closed $3.70 higher at $202.80, June live cattle closed $4.75 higher at $198.37 and August live cattle closed $4.55 higher at $195.00. The jump this afternoon helped the spot June contract close back above the market's 40-day moving average, which will continue to be a threshold on which the market closely monitors. Still no cash cattle trade has developed, but bids of $205 to $208 live were offered throughout the day in Nebraska, and live bids of $200 were offered in Texas. But with asking prices firm in the South at $208, feedlot managers and packers have a long way to go before they're going to see eye to eye this week. 

Wednesday's slaughter is estimated at 123,000 head -- 1,000 head less than a week ago and 13,000 head more than a year ago.

Boxed beef prices closed lower: choice down $0.24 ($337.86) and select down $1.45 ($320.61) with a movement of 154 loads (108.71 loads of choice, 12.91 loads of select, 20.67 loads of trim and 12.03 loads of ground beef).

THURSDAY'S CATTLE CALL: Steady to somewhat lower. Given that over the last couple of weeks packers have been able to secure inventory and build supply up around them, they could likely keep the cash market from trading higher this week.

FEEDER CATTLE:

The feeder cattle complex didn't sleep on the tariff announcement this afternoon and leaped higher as traders were eager to find some positive encouragement in the marketplace. April feeders closed $3.32 higher at $283.75, May feeders closed $6.47 higher at $278.20 and August feeders closed $5.65 higher at $283.25. Thankfully the spot May contract was also able to again close above its 40-day moving average. At Winter Livestock Auction in Dodge City, Kansas compared to last week steers over 500 pounds and heifers over 550 pounds sold steady to $5.00 to $10.00 lower. And steers under 500 pounds and heifers under 550 pounds weren't well tested. Feeder cattle supply over 600 pounds was 79%. The CME feeder cattle index 4/8/2025: up $0.08, $290.61.

LEAN HOGS:

The lean hog complex also saw widespread support from traders following President Trump's announcement of tariff delays. June lean hogs closed $1.92 higher at $91.70, July lean hogs closed $2.07 higher at $91.27 and August lean hogs closed $1.47 higher at $89.32. But today's higher jump was solely technically driven as the market's fundamentals weren't helpful. The carcass price was again sucked lower as the ham closed $4.44 lower, and both the picnic and loin saw losses exceed $2.00. Hog prices closed lower on the Daily Direct Afternoon Hog Report, down $0.75 with a weighted average price of $86.08 on 2,418 head. Pork cutouts totaled 404.90 loads with 337.52 loads of pork cuts and 67.38 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: down $2.69, $90.76. Wednesday's slaughter is estimated at 487,000 head -- 2,000 head more than a week ago and 1,000 head more than a year ago. The CME lean hog index 4/7/2025: down $0.03, $88.16.

THURSDAY'S HOG CALL: Steady to somewhat lower. Packers could still need a few more hogs but it's not likely that they'll push cash prices higher.

Fed cattle prices surge as does the need for risk protection

Fed cattle markets have surged, with feeder steer prices reaching new highs. In Montana, on March 21, feeder steers were priced above $3.01 per lb, nearly $0.30 higher than a year ago and up $0.05 per lb from the previous week. Similar trends were seen in all western states. In California, Idaho, Oregon and Washington, feeder steer prices exceeded $2.88 per lb, reflecting year-over-year gains of more than $0.20 and monthly increases of $0.10 per lb. In Arizona, feeder steer prices were slightly lower than last year at $2.82 per lb but still saw a $0.15 increase over the past month. Despite these strong cash market prices, live and feeder cattle futures have started to retreat from record highs reached in mid-March, with all contracts after April turning bearish. This is not surprising as seasonally, cattle prices typically dip during the summer months, before rising again in the last quarter of the year.

While the seasonal adjustment is not a surprise, this shift in the futures market could pose challenges for the cattle industry as cattle purchased at today’s record prices may have to be sold at lower prices. Breeding stock prices have surged, with replacement heifers reaching up to $2,800 and bred cows exceeding $3,500, raising concerns about producers’ ability to sell calves profitably. Producers will need to be able to sell these animals that they purchased at record prices at a profit. The key factor for maintaining strong beef prices is resilient consumer demand. If demand falters, it could have significant negative impacts on the market. That said, the outlook remains optimistic with grilling season approaching, a time when beef demand traditionally peaks. Additionally, strong sales in 2024, which reached a record $104.6 billion, a 5% year-over-year increase, suggest that beef demand has the potential to remain robust.

Packers are grappling with significant challenges as low utilization levels and elevated cattle costs continue to strain operating margins. Packing plant utilization rates are currently below 70%, a level that is unsustainable in the long term. Efforts to adjust, such as reducing slaughter levels and eliminating Saturday shifts, have yet to bring utilization to an economically viable level. Projections suggest that U.S. slaughter utilization will only surpass 80% by the end of 2025, leaving the industry in a precarious position. Meanwhile, feeder cattle prices have added further pressure to packers. This combination of low utilization and high cattle costs is expected to drive continued industry consolidation to an already highly consolidated industry. This places older, underutilized plants at particular risk of closure.

Profitability

March 12, 2025

Cattle feeders: Profitable - Bearish 12-month outlook
Cow-calf producers: Profitable - Neutral 12-month outlook

As feedlots grapple with tightening cattle supplies, competition may continue to ratchet the cost of feeder cattle higher. This could offset the financial benefit of lower feed costs.

Low national cattle inventories continue to bolster cow-calf profitability. However, already tight packer margins could weigh on cattle prices if rising beef prices outpace consumer demand.