GENERAL COMMENTS:
Livestock futures seemed to show a glimmer of hope early Monday morning following a temporary bounce higher in stock prices. But renewed concerns of widespread market pressure and economic weakness have redeveloped, pushing stocks sharply lower and redeveloping triple-digit losses across the livestock complex. Due to livestock futures closing at limit losses Friday, expanded trade limits are in place through the entire session Monday. At this point, losses are not near the expanded trading limits, which is creating a sense of relief in the tumbling market seen over the past few days. Market uncertainty surrounding global trade activity and the economy is causing significant pressure through all markets, including the livestock complex. May corn is down 1 3/4 at $4.585 and May soybean meal is up $1.90 at $285.00. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 857.40 at 37,457.46.
LIVE CATTLE:
Live cattle futures have continued lower with all contracts now trading under the $200 per cwt threshold that seemed solid just a week ago. Although stock markets made wide shifts through the morning, the inability to hold the temporary gains has led to widespread market pressure redeveloping in nearly all markets. There remains a lot of concern and fear about what the ramifications of tariff levels will have on not only beef markets but the general economy, which is keeping trade under pressure. Expanded trade limits are in place in the live cattle complex, but so far current market moves are nowhere near normal trade limits, let alone expanded limits of $9.75 per cwt. Cash cattle markets are quiet with bids and offers still undeveloped. Show list distribution and widespread market observation are likely to be the main agenda through the day, but both sides seem to remain extremely cautious, to say the least. The bulk of business took place on Thursday and Friday last week, with Southern live deals ranging from $204 to $210, mostly $208, $1 to $2 lower than the previous week's weighted averages. Northern dressed trade had a range of $330 to $345 (this range is steady with last week), it looks as if the majority was done at $335, $4 lower than the prior week's weighted average, basis Nebraska. Having said that, a Regional paid up to $345, which like last week will offset the weekly weighted average. April live cattle are $2.85 lower at $199.775, June live cattle are $2.80 lower at $195.4, August live cattle are $3.03 lower at $191.675.
Boxed beef prices are Higher: choice up $2.21 ($340.66) and select up $1.97 ($319.15) with a movement of 37.05 loads (29.64 loads of choice, 4.40 loads of select, zero loads of trim and 3.01 loads of ground beef).
FEEDER CATTLE:
Feeder cattle futures are following the bearish tone seen through other markets on Monday. Very little fundamental market direction is being utilized at this point, and overall market technical factors are being generally overlooked. The main focus across all markets, including feeder cattle trade tariff levels and potential implications to the economy. It is way too early to determine what short- or long-term impact any of this will have on cattle markets and cattle prices, but traders are taking protection if there is no other information available to trade at this point. April contracts are showing less pressure, but May through November contracts have posted strong pressure. Expanded trade limits are also in place in the feeder cattle complex, but current losses are currently far from these limits, which is giving slight relief. April feeders are $1.03 lower at $278.4, May feeders are $2.65 lower at $272.225 and August feeders are $2.15 lower at $278.90.
LEAN HOGS:
Lean hog futures have moved lower Monday morning despite showing some signs of support early in the session. April futures are still holding moderate gains, but the rest of the complex remains under pressure with most contracts posting triple-digit losses. Underlying concerns of tariff levels set and retaliatory tariffs developing have traders unsure of how overall pork demand will be impacted through 2025 and beyond. When faced with uncertainty, traders nearly always take a protectionary stance. This is one of the main drivers of the recent market tumble. Current losses are nowhere near expended trading limits, which is creating some stability, but overall uncertainty remains the main driver of nearby and deferred trade activity Monday morning. April lean hogs are $0.45 higher at $87.825, May lean hogs are $0.55 lower at $84.575 and June lean hogs are $1.38 lower at $90.175. Hog Prices are unreported due to confidentiality on the Daily Direct Morning Hog report. Pork Cutouts totaled 146.25 loads with 122.99 loads of pork cuts and 23.26 loads of trim. Pork cutout values are up $1.36 at $98.44.
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